Burt J. Long-term, basin-scale salinity impacts from desalination in the Arabian/Persian Gulf

The nations on the shoreline of the Arabian/Persian Gulf are the world's largest users of desalination technologies, which are essential to meet their freshwater needs. Desalinated freshwater production is projected to rapidly increase in future decades. Thus, concerns have been raised that desalination activities may result in non-negligible long-term, basin-wide increases of salinity, which would have widespread detrimental effects on the Gulf marine ecosystems, with ripple effects on fisheries, as well as impacting the desalination activities themselves. We find that current yearly desalinated freshwater production amounts to about 2% of the net yearly evaporation from the Gulf. Projections to 2050 bring this value to 8%, leading to the possibility that, later in the second half of the century, desalinated freshwater production may exceed 10% of net evaporation, an amount which is comparable to interannual fluctuations in net evaporation. With the help of a model we examine several climatological scenarios, and we find that, under IPCC's SSP5-8.5 worst-case scenarios, end-of-century increases in air temperature may result in salinity increases comparable or larger to those produced by desalination activities. The same scenario suggests a reduced evaporation and an increased precipitation, which would have a mitigating effect. Finally we find that, owing to a strong overturning circulation, high-salinity waters are quickly flushed through the Strait of Hormuz. Thus, even in the worst-case scenarios, basin-scale salinity increases are unlikely to exceed 1 psu, and, under less extreme hypothesis, will likely remain well below 0.5 psu, levels that have negligible environmental implications at the basin-wide scale.

Freshwater budget in the Persian (Arabian) Gulf and exchanges at the Strait of Hormuz

Excess evaporation within the Persian (also referred as the Arabian) Gulf induces an inverse-estuary circulation. Surface waters are imported, via the Strait of Hormuz, while saltier waters are exported in the deeper layers. Using output of a 1/12-Degree horizontal resolution ocean general circulation model, the spatial structure and time variability of the circulation and the exchanges of volume and salt through the Strait of Hormuz are investigated in detail. The model’s circulation pattern in the Gulf is found to be in good agreement with observations and other studies based on numerical models. The mean export of salty waters in the bottom layer is of 0.26±0.05Sv (Sverdrup = 1.0 × 10⁶m³s⁻¹). The net freshwater import, the equivalent of the salt export divided by a reference salinity, done by the baroclinic circulation across that vertical section is decomposed in an overturning and a horizontal components, with mean values of 7.2±2.1 × 10⁻³Sv and 5.0±1.7 × 10⁻³Sv respectively. An important, novel finding of this work is that the horizontal component is confined to the deeper layers, mainly in the winter. It is also described for the first time that both components are correlated at the same level with the basin averaged evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) over the Persian Gulf. The highest correlation (r² = 0.59) of the total freshwater transport across 26°N with E-P over the Gulf is found with a one-month time lag, with E-P leading. The time series of freshwater import does not show any significant trend in the period from 1980 to 2015. Power spectra analysis shows that most of the energy is concentrated in the seasonal cycle. Some intraseasonal variability, likely related to the Shamal wind phenomenon, and possible impacts of El-Nino are also detected. These results suggest that the overturning and the horizontal components of freshwater exchange across the Strait of Hormuz are both driven by dynamic and thermodynamic processes inside the Persian Gulf.

Analysis of the spatio-temporal variability of seawater quality in the southeastern Arabian Gulf

In this study, seawater quality measurements, including salinity, sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), Secchi disk depth (SDD), pH, and dissolved oxygen (DO), were made from June 2013 to November 2014 at 52 stations in the southeastern Arabian Gulf. Significant variability was noticed for all collected parameters. Salinity showed a decreasing trend, and Chl-a, DO, pH, and SDD demonstrated increasing trends from shallow onshore stations to deep offshore ones, which could be attributed to variations of ocean circulation and meteorological conditions from onshore to offshore waters, and the likely effects of desalination plants along the coast. Salinity and temperature were high in summer and low in winter while Chl-a, SDD, pH, and DO indicated an opposite trend. The CTD profiles showed vertically well-mixed structures. Qualitative analysis of phytoplankton showed a high diversity of species without anomalous species found except in Ras Al Khaimah stations where diatoms were the dominating ones.

The influence of extreme winds on coastal oceanography and its implications for coral population connectivity in the southern Arabian Gulf

Using long-term oceanographic surveys and a 3-D hydrodynamic model we show that localized peak winds (known as shamals) cause fluctuation in water current speed and direction, and substantial oscillations in sea-bottom salinity and temperature in the southern Persian/Arabian Gulf. Results also demonstrate that short-term shamal winds have substantial impacts on oceanographic processes along the southern Persian/Arabian Gulf coastline, resulting in formation of large-scale (52 km diameter) eddies extending from the coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to areas near the off-shore islands of Iran. Such eddies likely play an important role in transporting larvae from well-developed reefs of the off-shore islands to the degraded reef systems of the southern Persian/Arabian Gulf, potentially maintaining genetic and ecological connectivity of these geographically distant populations and enabling enhanced recovery of degraded coral communities in the UAE.