Predicting Vertical Concentration Profiles in the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer With a Markov Chain Random Walk Model

In an effort to better represent aerosol transport in mesoscale and global-scale models, large eddy simulations (LES) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Turbulence with Particles (NTLP) code are used to develop a Markov chain random walk model that predicts aerosol particle profiles in a cloud-free marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL). The evolution of vertical concentration profiles are simulated for a range of aerosol particle sizes and in a neutral and an unstable boundary layer. For the neutral boundary layer we find, based on the LES statistics and a specific model time step, that there exist significant correlation for particle positions, meaning that particles near the bottom of the boundary are more likely to remain near the bottom of the boundary layer than being abruptly transported to the top, and vice versa. For the unstable boundary layer, a similar time interval exhibits a weaker tendency for an aerosol particle to remain close to its current location compared to the neutral case due to the strong nonlocal convective motions. In the limit of a large time interval, particles have been mixed throughout the MABL and virtually no temporal correlation exists. We leverage this information to parameterize a Markov chain random walk model that accurately predicts the evolution of vertical concentration profiles. The new methodology has significant potential to be applied at the subgrid level for coarser-scale weather and climate models, the utility of which is shown by comparison to airborne field data and global aerosol models.

A Review of the Representation of Aerosol Mixing State in Atmospheric Models

Aerosol mixing state significantly affects concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), wet removal rates, thermodynamic properties, heterogeneous chemistry, and aerosol optical properties, with implications for human health and climate. Over the last two decades, significant research effort has gone into finding computationally-efficient methods for representing the most important aspects of aerosol mixing state in air pollution, weather prediction, and climate models. In this review, we summarize the interactions between mixing-state and aerosol hygroscopicity, optical properties, equilibrium thermodynamics and heterogeneous chemistry. We focus on the effects of simplified assumptions of aerosol mixing state on CCN concentrations, wet deposition, and aerosol absorption. We also summarize previous approaches for representing aerosol mixing state in atmospheric models, and we make recommendations regarding the representation of aerosol mixing state in future modelling studies.

The Effect of Aerosol Radiative Heating on Turbulence Statistics and Spectra in the Atmospheric Convective Boundary Layer: A Large-Eddy Simulation Study

Turbulence statistics and spectra in a radiatively heated convective boundary layer (CBL) under aerosol pollution conditions are less investigated than their counterparts in the clear CBL. In this study, a large-eddy simulation (LES) coupled with an aerosol radiative transfer model is employed to determine the impact of aerosol radiative heating on CBL turbulence statistics. One-dimensional velocity spectra and velocity–temperature cospectra are invoked to characterize the turbulence flow in the CBL with varying aerosol pollution conditions. The results show that aerosol heating makes the profiles of turbulent heat flux curvilinear, while the total (turbulent plus radiative) heat flux profile retains the linear relationship with height throughout the CBL. The horizontal and vertical velocity variances are reduced significantly throughout the radiatively heated CBL with increased aerosol optical depth (AOD). The potential temperature variance is also reduced, especially in the entrainment zone and near the surface. The velocity spectral density tends to be smaller overall, and the peak of the velocity spectra is shifted toward larger wavenumbers as AOD increases. This shift reveals that the energy-containing turbulent eddies become smaller, which is also supported by visual inspection of the vertical velocity pattern over horizontal planes. The modified CBL turbulence scales for velocity and temperature are found to be applicable for normalizing the corresponding profiles, indicating that a correction factor for aerosol radiative heating is needed for capturing the general features of the CBL structure in the presence of aerosol radiative heating.

Modeling the dispersion of Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. pollen with the model system COSMO-ART

Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) is a highly allergenic plant that is spreading throughout Europe. Ragweed pollen can be transported over large distances by the wind. Even low pollen concentrations of less than 10 pollen m(-3) can lead to health problems in sensitive persons. Therefore, forecasting the airborne concentrations of ragweed pollen is becoming more and more important for public health. The question remains whether distant pollen sources need to be considered in reliable forecasts. We used the extended numerical weather prediction system COSMO-ART to simulate the release and transport of ragweed pollen in central Europe. A pollen episode (September 12-16, 2006) in north-eastern Germany was modeled in order to find out where the pollen originated. For this purpose, several different source regions were taken into account and their individual impact on the daily mean pollen concentration and the performance of the forecast were studied with the means of a 2 × 2 contingency table and skill scores. It was found that the majority of the pollen originated in local areas, but up to 20% of the total pollen load came from distant sources in Hungary. It is concluded that long-distance transport should not be neglected when predicting pollen concentrations.

Vertical profiles of aerosol absorption coefficient from micro-Aethalometer data and Mie calculation over Milan

Vertical profiles of aerosol number-size distribution and black carbon (BC) concentration were measured between ground-level and 500m AGL over Milan. A tethered balloon was fitted with an instrumentation package consisting of the newly-developed micro-Aethalometer (microAeth® Model AE51, Magee Scientific, USA), an optical particle counter, and a portable meteorological station. At the same time, PM(2.5) samples were collected both at ground-level and at a high altitude sampling site, enabling particle chemical composition to be determined. Vertical profiles and PM(2.5) data were collected both within and above the mixing layer. Absorption coefficient (b(abs)) profiles were calculated from the Aethalometer data: in order to do so, an optical enhancement factor (C), accounting for multiple light-scattering within the filter of the new microAeth® Model AE51, was determined for the first time. The value of this parameter C (2.05±0.03 at λ=880nm) was calculated by comparing the Aethalometer attenuation coefficient and aerosol optical properties determined from OPC data along vertical profiles. Mie calculations were applied to the OPC number-size distribution data, and the aerosol refractive index was calculated using the effective medium approximation applied to aerosol chemical composition. The results compare well with AERONET data. The BC and b(abs) profiles showed a sharp decrease at the mixing height (MH), and fairly constant values of b(abs) and BC were found above the MH, representing 17±2% of those values measured within the mixing layer. The BC fraction of aerosol volume was found to be lower above the MH: 48±8% of the corresponding ground-level values. A statistical mean profile was calculated, both for BC and b(abs), to better describe their behaviour; the model enabled us to compute their average behaviour as a function of height, thus laying the foundations for valid parametrizations of vertical profile data which can be useful in both remote sensing and climatic studies.

Numerical simulation of birch pollen dispersion with an operational weather forecast system

We included a parameterisation of the emissions of pollen grains into the comprehensive model system COSMO-ART. In addition, a detailed density distribution of birch trees within Switzerland was derived. Based on these new developments, we carried out numerical simulations of the dispersion of pollen grains for an episode that occurred in April 2006 over Switzerland and the adjacent regions. Since COSMO-ART is based on the operational forecast model of the German Weather Service, we are presenting a feasibility study of daily pollen forecast based on methods which have been developed during the last two decades for the treatment of anthropogenic aerosol. A comparison of the model results and very detailed pollen counts documents the current possibilities and the shortcomings of the method and gives hints for necessary improvements.