Considering intentional stratospheric dehydration for climate benefits

We introduce a climate intervention strategy focused on decreasing water vapor (WV) concentrations near the tropopause and in the stratosphere to increase outbound longwave radiation. The mechanism is the targeted injection of ice-nucleating particles (INP) in air supersaturated with respect to ice at high altitudes in the tropical entryway to the stratosphere. Ice formation in this region is a critical control of stratospheric WV. Recent airborne in situ data indicate that targeting only a small fraction of air parcels in the region would be sufficient to achieve substantial removal of water. This "intentional stratospheric dehydration" (ISD) strategy would not counteract a large fraction of the forcing from carbon dioxide but may contribute to a portfolio of climate interventions by acting with different time and length scales of impact and risk than other interventions that are already under consideration. We outline the idea, its plausibility, technical hurdles, and side effects to be considered.

Confronting the Challenge of Modeling Cloud and Precipitation Microphysics

In the atmosphere, microphysics refers to the microscale processes that affect cloud and precipitation particles and is a key linkage among the various components of Earth's atmospheric water and energy cycles. The representation of microphysical processes in models continues to pose a major challenge leading to uncertainty in numerical weather forecasts and climate simulations. In this paper, the problem of treating microphysics in models is divided into two parts: (i) how to represent the population of cloud and precipitation particles, given the impossibility of simulating all particles individually within a cloud, and (ii) uncertainties in the microphysical process rates owing to fundamental gaps in knowledge of cloud physics. The recently developed Lagrangian particle-based method is advocated as a way to address several conceptual and practical challenges of representing particle populations using traditional bulk and bin microphysics parameterization schemes. For addressing critical gaps in cloud physics knowledge, sustained investment for observational advances from laboratory experiments, new probe development, and next-generation instruments in space is needed. Greater emphasis on laboratory work, which has apparently declined over the past several decades relative to other areas of cloud physics research, is argued to be an essential ingredient for improving process-level understanding. More systematic use of natural cloud and precipitation observations to constrain microphysics schemes is also advocated. Because it is generally difficult to quantify individual microphysical process rates from these observations directly, this presents an inverse problem that can be viewed from the standpoint of Bayesian statistics. Following this idea, a probabilistic framework is proposed that combines elements from statistical and physical modeling. Besides providing rigorous constraint of schemes, there is an added benefit of quantifying uncertainty systematically. Finally, a broader hierarchical approach is proposed to accelerate improvements in microphysics schemes, leveraging the advances described in this paper related to process modeling (using Lagrangian particle-based schemes), laboratory experimentation, cloud and precipitation observations, and statistical methods.

Water Vapor, Clouds, and Saturation in the Tropical Tropopause Layer

The goal of this investigation is to understand the mechanism behind the observed high relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) in the tropical region between ~14 km (150 hPa) and the tropopause, often referred to as the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). As shown by satellite, aircraft and balloon observations, high (>80%) RHi regions are widespread within the TTL. Regions with the highest RHi are co-located with extensive cirrus. During boreal winter, the TTL RHi is highest over the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) with a weaker maximum over South America and Africa. In the winter, TTL temperatures are coldest and upward motion is the greatest in the TWP. It is this upward motion, driving humid air into the colder upper troposphere that produces the persistent high RHi and cirrus formation. Back trajectory calculations show that comparable adiabatic and diabatic processes contribute to this upward motion. We construct a bulk model of TWP TTL water vapor transport that includes cloud nucleation and ice microphysics that quantifies how upward motion drives the persistent high RHi in the TTL region. We find that atmospheric waves triggering cloud formation regulate the RHi, and that convection dehydrates the TTL. Our forward domain-filling trajectory (FDF) model is used to more precisely simulate the TTL spatial and vertical distribution of RHi. The observed RHi distribution is reproduced by the model and we show that convection increases RHi below the base of the TTL with little impact on the RHi in the TTL region.

Gravity Wave Spectra in the Lower Stratosphere Diagnosed from Project Loon Balloon Trajectories

Project Loon has been launching super-pressure balloons since January 2013 to provide worldwide Internet coverage. These balloons typically fly between 18-21 km and provide measurements of winds and pressure fluctuations in the lower stratosphere. We divide 1,560 Loon flights into 3,405 two-day segments for gravity wave analysis. We derive the kinetic energy spectrum from the horizontal balloon motion and estimate the temperature perturbation spectrum (proportional to the potential energy spectrum) from the pressure variations. We fit the temperature (and kinetic energy) data to the functional form T , 2 = T O , 2 ( ω / ω O ) α where ω is the wave frequency, ω _o is daily frequency, T' _o is the base temperature amplitude and α is the slope. Both the kinetic energy and temperature spectra show -1.9±0.2 power-law dependence in the intrinsic frequency window 3 - 50 cycles/day. The temperature spectrum slope is weakly anti-correlated with the base temperature amplitude. We also find that the wave base temperature distribution is highly skewed. The average tropical modal temperature is 0.77 K. The highest amplitude waves occur over the mountainous regions, the tropics, and the high southern latitudes. Temperature amplitudes show little height variation over our 18-21 km domain. Our results are consistent with other limited super-pressure balloon analyses. The modal temperature is higher than the temperature currently used in Lagrangian model gravity wave parameterizations.

Direct estimation of the global distribution of vertical velocity within cirrus clouds

Cirrus clouds determine the radiative balance of the upper troposphere and the transport of water vapor across the tropopause. The representation of vertical wind velocity, W, in atmospheric models constitutes the largest source of uncertainty in the calculation of the cirrus formation rate. Using global atmospheric simulations with a spatial resolution of 7 km we obtain for the first time a direct estimate of the distribution of W at the scale relevant for cirrus formation, validated against long-term observations at two different ground sites. The standard deviation in W, σ_w, varies widely over the globe with the highest values resulting from orographic uplift and convection, and the lowest occurring in the Arctic. Globally about 90% of the simulated σ_w values are below 0.1 m s⁻¹ and about one in 10⁴ cloud formation events occur in environments with σ_w > 0.8 m s⁻¹. Combining our estimate with reanalysis products and an advanced cloud formation scheme results in lower homogeneous ice nucleation frequency than previously reported, and a decreasing average ice crystal concentration with decreasing temperature. These features are in agreement with observations and suggest that the correct parameterization of σ_w is critical to simulate realistic cirrus properties.

Physical Processes Controlling the Vertical and Longitudinal Distributions of Relative Humidity in the Tropical Tropopause Layer Over the Pacific

The vertical distribution of relative humidity with respect to ice (RHI) in the Boreal wintertime Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL, ≃14-18 km) over the Pacific is examined with the extensive dataset of measurements from the NASA Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX). Multiple deployments of the Global Hawk during ATTREX provided hundreds of vertical profiles spanning the longitudinal extent of the Pacific with accurate measurements of temperature, pressure, water vapor concentration, ozone concentration, and cloud properties. We also compare the measured RHI distributions with results from a transport and microphysical model driven by meteorological analysis fields. Notable features in the distribution of RHI versus temperature and longitude include (1) the common occurrence of RHI values near ice saturation over the western Pacific in the lower-middle TTL (temperatures greater than 195 K); (2) low RHI values in the lower TTL over the central and eastern Pacific; (3) common occurrence of RHI values following a constant mixing ratio in the middle-to-upper TTL (temperatures between about 190 and 200 K), particularly for samples with ozone greater than about 50-100 ppbv indicating mixtures of tropospheric and stratospheric air; (4) RHI values typically near ice saturation in the coldest airmasses sampled (temperatures less than about 190 K); and (5) common occurrence of RHI values near 100% across the TTL temperature range in air parcels with low ozone mixing ratio (O3 < 50 ppbv) indicative of recent uplift by deep convection. We suggest that the typically saturated air in the lower TTL over the western Pacific is likely driven by a combination of the frequent occurrence of deep convection and the predominance of radiative heating (rising motion) in this region. The low relative humidities in the central/eastern Pacific lower TTL result from the lack of convective influence, the predominance of subsidence, and the relatively warm temperatures in the region. The nearly-constant water vapor mixing ratios in the middle-to-upper TTL likely result from the combination of slow ascent (resulting in long residence times) and wave driven temperature variability on a range of time scales (resulting in most air parcels having experienced low temperature and dehydration). The numerical simulations generally reproduce the observed RHI distribution features and sensitivity tests further emphasize the strong sensitivities of TTL relative humidity to convective input and vertical motions.

Chemical and physical transformations of aluminosilicate clay minerals due to acid treatment and consequences for heterogeneous ice nucleation

Mineral dust aerosol is one of the largest contributors to global ice nuclei, but physical and chemical processing of dust during atmospheric transport can alter its ice nucleation activity. In particular, several recent studies have noted that sulfuric and nitric acids inhibit heterogeneous ice nucleation in the regime below liquid water saturation in aluminosilicate clay minerals. We have exposed kaolinite, KGa-1b and KGa-2, and montmorillonite, STx-1b and SWy-2, to aqueous sulfuric and nitric acid to determine the physical and chemical changes that are responsible for the observed deactivation. To characterize the changes to the samples upon acid treatment, we use X-ray diffraction, transmission electron microscopy, and inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectroscopy. We find that the reaction of kaolinite and montmorillonite with aqueous sulfuric acid results in the formation of hydrated aluminum sulfate. In addition, sulfuric and nitric acids induce large structural changes in montmorillonite. We additionally report the supersaturation with respect to ice required for the onset of ice nucleation for these acid-treated species. On the basis of lattice spacing arguments, we explain how the chemical and physical changes observed upon acid treatment could lead to the observed reduction in ice nucleation activity.

Freezing of water and aqueous NaCl droplets coated by organic monolayers as a function of surfactant properties and water activity

This study presents heterogeneous ice nucleation from water and aqueous NaCl droplets coated by 1-nonadecanol and 1-nonadecanoic acid monolayers as a function of water activity (a(w)) from 0.8 to 1 accompanied by measurements of the corresponding pressure-area isotherms and equilibrium spreading pressures. For water and aqueous NaCl solutions of ~0-20 wt % in concentration, 1-nonadecanol exhibits a condensed phase, whereas the phase of 1-nonadecanoic acid changes from an expanded to a condensed state with increasing NaCl content of the aqueous subphase. 1-Nonadecanol-coated aqueous droplets exhibit the highest median freezing temperatures that can be described by a shift in a(w) of the ice melting curve by 0.098 according to the a(w)-based ice nucleation approach. This freezing curve represents a heterogeneous ice nucleation rate coefficient (J(het)) of 0.85 ± 0.30 cm(-2) s(-1). The median freezing temperatures of 1-nonadecanoic acid-coated aqueous droplets decrease less with increasing NaCl content compared to the homogeneous freezing temperatures. This trend in freezing temperature is best described by a linear function in a(w) and not by the a(w)-based ice nucleation approach most likely due to an increased ice nucleation efficiency of 1-nonadecanoic acid governed by the monolayer state. This freezing curve represents J(het) = 0.46 ± 0.16 cm(-2) s(-1). Contact angles (α) for 1-nonadecanol- and 1-nonadecanoic acid-coated aqueous droplets increase as temperature decreases for each droplet composition, but absolute values depend on employed water diffusivity and the interfacial energies of the ice embryo. A parametrization of log[J(het)(Δa(w))] is presented which allows prediction of freezing temperatures and heterogeneous ice nucleation rate coefficients for water and aqueous NaCl droplets coated by 1-nonadecanol without knowledge of the droplet's composition and α.