Why the lower stratosphere cools when the troposphere warms

Observational data have long suggested that in the tropics, when the troposphere locally warms, the lower stratosphere locally cools. Here, the observed anti-correlation between tropospheric and lower stratospheric temperature is confirmed-the lower stratosphere cools by approximately 2 degrees per degree of warming in the mid-troposphere. This anti-correlation is explained through a recently proposed theory holding that there is a quasi-balanced response of the stratosphere to tropospheric heating [J. Lin, K. Emanuel, Tropospheric thermal forcing of the stratosphere through quasi-balanced dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci. (2024).]. The local-scale anti-correlation between tropospheric and lower stratospheric temperature also holds when considering climate change-where the troposphere has been anomalously warming relative to the zonal mean, the lower stratosphere has been anomalously cooling, and vice versa. This suggests that zonally asymmetries in tropospheric temperature trends will be reflected in that of the lower stratospheric temperature trends. The zonally asymmetric trends are also found to be comparable in magnitude to the mean temperature trends in the lower stratosphere, highlighting the importance of the pattern of warming. The results and proposed theory suggest that in addition to forcing via wave-dissipation, the lower stratosphere can also be subject to direct forcing by the troposphere, through quasi-steady, quasi-balanced dynamics.

Stratospheric water vapor affecting atmospheric circulation

Water vapor plays an important role in many aspects of the climate system, by affecting radiation, cloud formation, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics. Even the low stratospheric water vapor content provides an important climate feedback, but current climate models show a substantial moist bias in the lowermost stratosphere. Here we report crucial sensitivity of the atmospheric circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere to the abundance of water vapor in the lowermost stratosphere. We show from a mechanistic climate model experiment and inter-model variability that lowermost stratospheric water vapor decreases local temperatures, and thereby causes an upward and poleward shift of subtropical jets, a strengthening of the stratospheric circulation, a poleward shift of the tropospheric eddy-driven jet and regional climate impacts. The mechanistic model experiment in combination with atmospheric observations further shows that the prevailing moist bias in current models is likely caused by the transport scheme, and can be alleviated by employing a less diffusive Lagrangian scheme. The related effects on atmospheric circulation are of similar magnitude as climate change effects. Hence, lowermost stratospheric water vapor exerts a first order effect on atmospheric circulation and improving its representation in models offers promising prospects for future research.

Modeling the Effect of Potential Nitric Acid Removal During Convective Injection of Water Vapor Over the Central United States on the Chemical Composition of the Lower Stratosphere

Tropopause-penetrating convection is a frequent seasonal feature of the Central United States climate. This convection presents the potential for consistent transport of water vapor into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) through the lofting of ice, which then sublimates. Water vapor enhancements associated with convective ice lofting have been observed in both in situ and satellite measurements. These water vapor enhancements can increase the probability of sulfate aerosol-catalyzed heterogeneous reactions that convert reservoir chlorine (HCl and ClONO2) to free radical chlorine (Cl and ClO) that leads to catalytic ozone loss. In addition to water vapor transport, lofted ice may also scavenge nitric acid and further impact the chlorine activation chemistry of the UTLS. We present a photochemical model that resolves the vertical chemical structure of the UTLS to explore the effect of water vapor enhancements and potential additional nitric acid removal. The model is used to define the response of stratospheric column ozone to the range of convective water vapor transported and the temperature variability of the lower stratosphere currently observed over the Central United States in conjunction with potential nitric acid removal and to scenarios of elevated sulfate aerosol surface area density representative of possible future volcanic eruptions or solar radiation management. We find that the effect of HNO3 removal is dependent on the magnitude of nitric acid removal and has the greatest potential to increase chlorine activation and ozone loss under UTLS conditions that weakly favor the chlorine activation heterogeneous reactions by reducing NOx sources.

The South Asian monsoon-pollution pump and purifier

Air pollution is growing fastest in monsoon-affected South Asia. During the dry winter monsoon, the fumes disperse toward the Indian Ocean, creating a vast pollution haze, but their fate during the wet summer monsoon has been unclear. We performed atmospheric chemistry measurements by aircraft in the Oxidation Mechanism Observations campaign, sampling the summer monsoon outflow in the upper troposphere between the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean. The measurements, supported by model calculations, show that the monsoon sustains a remarkably efficient cleansing mechanism by which contaminants are rapidly oxidized and deposited to Earth's surface. However, some pollutants are lofted above the monsoon clouds and chemically processed in a reactive reservoir before being redistributed globally, including to the stratosphere.

SUN-TO-EARTH MHD SIMULATION OF THE 14 JULY 2000 "BASTILLE DAY" ERUPTION

Solar eruptions are the main driver of space-weather disturbances at the Earth. Extreme events are of particular interest, not only because of the scientific challenges they pose, but also because of their possible societal consequences. Here we present a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the 14 July 2000 "Bastille Day" eruption, which produced a very strong geomagnetic storm. After constructing a "thermodynamic" MHD model of the corona and solar wind, we insert a magnetically stable flux rope along the polarity inversion line of the eruption's source region and initiate the eruption by boundary flows. More than 10³³ ergs of magnetic energy are released in the eruption within a few minutes, driving a flare, an EUV wave, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) that travels in the outer corona at ≈1500 km s^-1, close to the observed speed. We then propagate the CME to Earth, using a heliospheric MHD code. Our simulation thus provides the opportunity to test how well in situ observations of extreme events are matched if the eruption is initiated from a stable magnetic-equilibrium state. We find that the flux-rope center is very similar in character to the observed magnetic cloud, but arrives ≈8.5 hours later and ≈15° too far to the North, with field strengths that are too weak by a factor of ≈1.6. The front of the flux rope is highly distorted, exhibiting localized magnetic-field concentrations as it passes 1 AU. We discuss these properties with regard to the development of space-weather predictions based on MHD simulations of solar eruptions.

THE NASA AIRBORNE TROPICAL TROPOPAUSE EXPERIMENT: High-Altitude Aircraft Measurements in the Tropical Western Pacific

The February–March 2014 deployment of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (ATTREX) provided unique in situ measurements in the western Pacific tropical tropopause layer (TTL). Six flights were conducted from Guam with the long-range, high-altitude, unmanned Global Hawk aircraft. The ATTREX Global Hawk payload provided measurements of water vapor, meteorological conditions, cloud properties, tracer and chemical radical concentrations, and radiative fluxes. The campaign was partially coincident with the Convective Transport of Active Species in the Tropics (CONTRAST) and the Coordinated Airborne Studies in the Tropics (CAST) airborne campaigns based in Guam using lower-altitude aircraft (see companion articles in this issue). The ATTREX dataset is being used for investigations of TTL cloud, transport, dynamical, and chemical processes, as well as for evaluation and improvement of global-model representations of TTL processes. The ATTREX data are publicly available online (at https://espoarchive.nasa.gov/).

Stable isotopes in atmospheric water vapor and applications to the hydrologic cycle

The measurement and simulation of water vapor isotopic composition has matured rapidly over the last decade, with long-term datasets and comprehensive modeling capabilities now available. Theories for water vapor isotopic composition have been developed by extending the theories that have been used for the isotopic composition of precipitation to include a more nuanced understanding of evaporation, large-scale mixing, deep convection, and kinetic fractionation. The technologies for in-situ and remote sensing measurements of water vapor isotopic composition have developed especially rapidly over the last decade, with discrete water vapor sampling methods, based on mass spectroscopy, giving way to laser spectroscopic methods and satellite- and ground-based infrared absorption techniques. The simulation of water vapor isotopic composition has evolved from General Circulation Model (GCM) methods for simulating precipitation isotopic composition to sophisticated isotope-enabled microphysics schemes using higher-order moments for water- and ice-size distributions. The incorporation of isotopes into GCMs has enabled more detailed diagnostics of the water cycle and has led to improvements in its simulation. The combination of improved measurement and modeling of water vapor isotopic composition opens the door to new advances in our understanding of the atmospheric water cycle, in processes ranging from the marine boundary layer, through deep convection and tropospheric mixing, and into the water cycle of the stratosphere. Finally, studies of the processes governing modern water vapor isotopic composition provide an improved framework for the interpretation of paleoclimate proxy records of the hydrological cycle.

Transport of ice into the stratosphere and the humidification of the stratosphere over the 21st century

Climate models predict that tropical lower-stratospheric humidity will increase as the climate warms. We examine this trend in two state-of-the-art chemistry-climate models. Under high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the stratospheric entry value of water vapor increases by ~1 part per million by volume (ppmv) over this century in both models. We show with trajectory runs driven by model meteorological fields that the warming tropical tropopause layer (TTL) explains 50-80% of this increase. The remainder is a consequence of trends in evaporation of ice convectively lofted into the TTL and lower stratosphere. Our results further show that, within the models we examined, ice lofting is primarily important on long time scales - on interannual time scales, TTL temperature variations explain most of the variations in lower stratospheric humidity. Assessing the ability of models to realistically represent ice-lofting processes should be a high priority in the modeling community.

Ice nucleation and dehydration in the Tropical Tropopause Layer

Optically thin cirrus near the tropical tropopause regulate the humidity of air entering the stratosphere, which in turn has a strong influence on the Earth's radiation budget and climate. Recent high-altitude, unmanned aircraft measurements provide evidence for two distinct classes of cirrus formed in the tropical tropopause region: (i) vertically extensive cirrus with low ice number concentrations, low extinctions, and large supersaturations (up to ∼70%) with respect to ice; and (ii) vertically thin cirrus layers with much higher ice concentrations that effectively deplete the vapor in excess of saturation. The persistent supersaturation in the former class of cirrus is consistent with the long time-scales (several hours or longer) for quenching of vapor in excess of saturation given the low ice concentrations and cold tropical tropopause temperatures. The low-concentration clouds are likely formed on a background population of insoluble particles with concentrations less than 100 L(-1) (often less than 20 L(-1)), whereas the high ice concentration layers (with concentrations up to 10,000 L(-1)) can only be produced by homogeneous freezing of an abundant population of aqueous aerosols. These measurements, along with past high-altitude aircraft measurements, indicate that the low-concentration cirrus occur frequently in the tropical tropopause region, whereas the high-concentration cirrus occur infrequently. The predominance of the low-concentration clouds means cirrus near the tropical tropopause may typically allow entry of air into the stratosphere with as much as ∼1.7 times the ice saturation mixing ratio.