Analysis and Modeling of Air Pollution in Extreme Meteorological Conditions: A Case Study of Jeddah, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Air pollution has serious environmental and human health-related consequences; however, little work seems to be undertaken to address the harms in Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia. We installed a continuous air quality monitoring station in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia and monitored several air pollutants and meteorological parameters over a 2-year period (2018–2019). Here, we developed two supervised machine learning models, known as quantile regression models, to analyze the whole distribution of the modeled pollutants, not only the mean values. Two pollutants, namely NO₂ and O₃, were modeled by dividing their concentrations into several quantiles (0.05, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, and 0.95) and the effect of several pollutants and meteorological variables was analyzed on each quantile. The effect of the explanatory variables changed at different segments of the distribution of NO₂ and O₃ concentrations. For instance, for the modeling of O₃, the coefficients of wind speed at quantiles 0.05, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, and 0.95 were 1.40, 2.15, 2.34, 2.31, and 1.56, respectively. Correlation coefficients of 0.91 and 0.92 and RMSE values of 14.41 and 8.96, which are calculated for the cross-validated models of NO₂ and O₃, showed an acceptable model performance. Quantile analysis aids in better understanding the behavior of air pollution and how it interacts with the influencing factors.

Application of Density Plots and Time Series Modelling to the Analysis of Nitrogen Dioxides Measured by Low-Cost and Reference Sensors in Urban Areas

Temporal variability of NO2 concentrations measured by 28 Envirowatch E-MOTEs, 13 AQMesh pods, and eight reference sensors (five run by Sheffield City Council and three run by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA)) was analysed at different time scales (e.g., annual, weekly and diurnal cycles). Density plots and time variation plots were used to compare the distributions and temporal variability of NO2 concentrations. Long-term trends, both adjusted and non-adjusted, showed significant reductions in NO2 concentrations. At the Tinsley site, the non-adjusted trend was −0.94 (−1.12, −0.78) µgm−3/year, whereas the adjusted trend was −0.95 (−1.04, −0.86) µgm−3/year. At Devonshire Green, the non-adjusted trend was −1.21 (−1.91, −0.41) µgm−3/year and the adjusted trend was −1.26 (−1.57, −0.83) µgm−3/year. Furthermore, NO2 concentrations were analysed employing univariate linear and nonlinear time series models and their performance was compared with a more advanced time series model using two exogenous variables (NO and O3). For this purpose, time series data of NO, O3 and NO2 were obtained from a reference site in Sheffield, which were more accurate than the measurements from low-cost sensors and, therefore, more suitable for training and testing the model. In this article, the three main steps used for model development are discussed: (i) model specification for choosing appropriate values for p, d and q, (ii) model fitting (parameters estimation), and (iii) model diagnostic (testing the goodness of fit). The linear auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) performed better than the nonlinear counterpart; however, its performance in predicting NO2 concentration was inferior to ARIMA with exogenous variables (ARIMAX). Using cross-validation ARIMAX demonstrated strong association with the measured concentrations, with a correlation coefficient of 0.84 and RMSE of 9.90. ARIMAX can be used as an early warning tool for predicting potential pollution episodes in order to be proactive in adopting precautionary measures.

Analysis of Air Pollution in Urban Areas with Airviro Dispersion Model—A Case Study in the City of Sheffield, United Kingdom

Two air pollutants, oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and particulate matter (PM10), are monitored and modelled employing Airviro air quality dispersion modelling system in Sheffield, United Kingdom. The aim is to determine the most significant emission sources and their spatial variability. NOx emissions (ton/year) from road traffic, point and area sources for the year 2017 were 5370, 6774, and 2425, whereas those of PM10 (ton/year) were 345, 1449, and 281, respectively, which are part of the emission database. The results showed three hotspots of NOx, namely the Sheffield City Centre, Darnall and Tinsley Roundabout (M1 J34S). High PM10 concentrations were shown mainly between Sheffield Forgemasters International (a heavy engineering steel company) and Meadowhall Shopping Centre. Several emission scenarios were tested, which showed that NOx concentrations were mainly controlled by road traffic, whereas PM10 concentrations were controlled by point sources. Spatiotemporal variability and public exposure to air pollution were analysed. NOx concentration was greater than 52 µg/m3 in about 8 km2 area, where more than 66 thousand people lived. Models validated by observations can be used to fill in spatiotemporal gaps in measured data. The approach used presents spatiotemporal situation awareness maps that could be used for decision making and improving the urban infrastructure.

Air pollution survey across the western Mediterranean Sea: overview on oxygenated volatile hydrocarbons (OVOCs) and other gaseous pollutants

Despite the Mediterranean Sea basin is among the most sensitive areas over the world for climate change and air quality issues, it still remains less studied than the oceanic regions. The domain investigated by the research ship Minerva Uno cruise in Summer 2015 was the Tyrrhenian Sea. An overview on the marine boundary layer (MBL) concentration levels of carbonyl compounds, ozone (O₃), and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) is reported. The north-western Tyrrhenian Sea samples showed a statistically significant difference in acetone and SO₂ concentrations when compared to the south-eastern ones. Acetone and SO₂ values were higher in the southern part of the basin; presumably, a blend of natural (including volcanism) and anthropogenic (shipping) sources caused this difference. The mean acetone concentration reached 5.4 μg/m³; formaldehyde and acetaldehyde means were equal to 1.1 μg/m³ and 0.38 μg/m³, respectively. Maximums of 3.0 μg/m³ for formaldehyde and 1.0 μg/m³ for acetaldehyde were detected along the route from Civitavecchia to Fiumicino. These two compounds were also present at levels above the average in proximity of petrol-refining plants on the coast; in fact, formaldehyde reached 1.56 μg/m³ and 1.60 μg/m³, respectively, near Milazzo and Augusta harbors; meanwhile, acetaldehyde was as high as 0.75 μg/m³ at both sites. The levels of formaldehyde agreed with previously reported measurements over Mediterranean Sea and elsewhere; besides, a day/night trend was observed, confirming the importance of photochemical formation for this pollutant. According to this study, Mediterranean Sea basin, which is a closed sea, was confirmed to suffer a high anthropic pressure impacting with diffuse emissions, while natural contribution to pollution could come from volcanic activity, particularly in the south-eastern Tyrrhenian Sea region.

Effect of land-use change and management on biogenic volatile organic compound emissions--selecting climate-smart cultivars

Land-use change (LUC) has fundamentally altered the form and function of the terrestrial biosphere. Increasing human population, the drive for higher living standards and the potential challenges of mitigating and adapting to global environmental change mean that further changes in LUC are unavoidable. LUC has direct consequences on climate not only via emissions of greenhouse gases and changing the surface energy balance but also by affecting the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Isoprenoids, which dominate global BVOC emissions, are highly reactive and strongly modify atmospheric composition. The effects of LUC on BVOC emissions and related atmospheric chemistry have been largely ignored so far. However, compared with natural ecosystems, most tree species used in bioenergy plantations are strong BVOC emitters, whereas intensively cultivated crops typically emit less BVOCs. Here, we summarize the current knowledge on LUC-driven BVOC emissions and how these might affect atmospheric composition and climate. We further discuss land management and plant-breeding strategies, which could be taken to move towards climate-friendly BVOC emissions while simultaneously maintaining or improving key ecosystem functions such as crop yield under a changing environment.

Large contribution of natural aerosols to uncertainty in indirect forcing

The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud droplet concentrations and radiative properties is the source of one of the largest uncertainties in the radiative forcing of climate over the industrial period. This uncertainty affects our ability to estimate how sensitive the climate is to greenhouse gas emissions. Here we perform a sensitivity analysis on a global model to quantify the uncertainty in cloud radiative forcing over the industrial period caused by uncertainties in aerosol emissions and processes. Our results show that 45 per cent of the variance of aerosol forcing since about 1750 arises from uncertainties in natural emissions of volcanic sulphur dioxide, marine dimethylsulphide, biogenic volatile organic carbon, biomass burning and sea spray. Only 34 per cent of the variance is associated with anthropogenic emissions. The results point to the importance of understanding pristine pre-industrial-like environments, with natural aerosols only, and suggest that improved measurements and evaluation of simulated aerosols in polluted present-day conditions will not necessarily result in commensurate reductions in the uncertainty of forcing estimates.

North American acetone sources determined from tall tower measurements and inverse modeling

We apply a full year of continuous atmospheric acetone measurements from the University of Minnesota tall tower Trace Gas Observatory (KCMP tall tower; 244 m a.g.l.), with a 0.5° × 0.667° GEOS-Chem nested grid simulation to develop quantitative new constraints on seasonal acetone sources over North America. Biogenic acetone emissions in the model are computed based on the MEGANv2.1 inventory. An inverse analysis of the tall tower observations implies a 37% underestimate of emissions from broadleaf trees, shrubs, and herbaceous plants, and an offsetting 40% overestimate of emissions from needleleaf trees plus secondary production from biogenic precursors. The overall result is a small (16%) model underestimate of the total primary + secondary biogenic acetone source in North America. Our analysis shows that North American primary + secondary anthropogenic acetone sources in the model (based on the EPA NEI 2005 inventory) are accurate to within approximately 20%. An optimized GEOS-Chem simulation incorporating the above findings captures 70% of the variance (R = 0.83) in the hourly measurements at the KCMP tall tower, with minimal bias. The resulting North American acetone source is 11 Tg a-1, including both primary emissions (5.5 Tg a-1) and secondary production (5.5 Tg a-1), and with roughly equal contributions from anthropogenic and biogenic sources. The North American acetone source alone is nearly as large as the total continental volatile organic compound (VOC) source from fossil fuel combustion. Using our optimized source estimates as a baseline, we evaluate the sensitivity of atmospheric acetone and peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) to shifts in natural and anthropogenic acetone sources over North America. Increased biogenic acetone emissions due to surface warming are likely to provide a significant offset to any future decrease in anthropogenic acetone emissions, particularly during summer.

Multiannual observations of acetone, methanol, and acetaldehyde in remote tropical atlantic air: implications for atmospheric OVOC budgets and oxidative capacity

Oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs) in the atmosphere are precursors to peroxy acetyl nitrate (PAN), affect the tropospheric ozone budget, and in the remote marine environment represent a significant sink of the hydroxyl radical (OH). The sparse observational database for these compounds, particularly in the tropics, contributes to a high uncertainty in their emissions and atmospheric significance. Here, we show measurements of acetone, methanol, and acetaldehyde in the tropical remote marine boundary layer made between October 2006 and September 2011 at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (CVAO) (16.85° N, 24.87° W). Mean mixing ratios of acetone, methanol, and acetaldehyde were 546 ± 295 pptv, 742 ± 419 pptv, and 428 ± 190 pptv, respectively, averaged from approximately hourly values over this five-year period. The CAM-Chem global chemical transport model reproduced annual average acetone concentrations well (21% overestimation) but underestimated levels by a factor of 2 in autumn and overestimated concentrations in winter. Annual average concentrations of acetaldehyde were underestimated by a factor of 10, rising to a factor of 40 in summer, and methanol was underestimated on average by a factor of 2, peaking to over a factor of 4 in spring. The model predicted summer minima in acetaldehyde and acetone, which were not apparent in the observations. CAM-Chem was adapted to include a two-way sea-air flux parametrization based on seawater measurements made in the Atlantic Ocean, and the resultant fluxes suggest that the tropical Atlantic region is a net sink for acetone but a net source for methanol and acetaldehyde. Inclusion of the ocean fluxes resulted in good model simulations of monthly averaged methanol levels although still with a 3-fold underestimation in acetaldehyde. Wintertime acetone levels were better simulated, but the observed autumn levels were more severely underestimated than in the standard model. We suggest that the latter may be caused by underestimated terrestrial biogenic African primary and/or secondary OVOC sources by the model. The model underestimation of acetaldehyde concentrations all year round implies a consistent significant missing source, potentially from secondary chemistry of higher alkanes produced biogenically from plants or from the ocean. We estimate that low model bias in OVOC abundances in the remote tropical marine atmosphere may result in up to 8% underestimation of the global methane lifetime due to missing model OH reactivity. Underestimation of acetaldehyde concentrations is responsible for the bulk (∼70%) of this missing reactivity.

The role of the ocean in the global atmospheric budget of acetone

Acetone is one of the most abundant carbonyl compounds in the atmosphere and it plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry. The role of the ocean in the global atmospheric acetone budget is highly uncertain, with past studies reaching opposite conclusions as to whether the ocean is a source or sink. Here we use a global 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) simulation of atmospheric acetone to evaluate the role of air-sea exchange in the global budget. Inclusion of updated (slower) photolysis loss in the model means that a large net ocean source is not needed to explain observed acetone in marine air. We find that a simulation with a fixed seawater acetone concentration of 15 nM based on observations can reproduce the observed global patterns of atmospheric concentrations and air-sea fluxes. The Northern Hemisphere oceans are a net sink for acetone while the tropical oceans are a net source. On a global scale the ocean is in near-equilibrium with the atmosphere. Prescribing an ocean concentration of acetone as a boundary condition in the model assumes that ocean concentrations are controlled by internal production and loss, rather than by air-sea exchange. An implication is that the ocean plays a major role in controlling atmospheric acetone. This hypothesis needs to be tested by better quantification of oceanic acetone sources and sinks.

Changes in tropospheric composition and air quality due to stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change

It is well-understood that reductions in air quality play a significant role in both environmental and human health. Interactions between ozone depletion and global climate change will significantly alter atmospheric chemistry which, in turn, will cause changes in concentrations of natural and human-made gases and aerosols. Models predict that tropospheric ozone near the surface will increase globally by up to 10 to 30 ppbv (33 to 100% increase) during the period 2000 to 2100. With the increase in the amount of the stratospheric ozone, increased transport from the stratosphere to the troposphere will result in different responses in polluted and unpolluted areas. In contrast, global changes in tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH) are not predicted to be large, except where influenced by the presence of oxidizable organic matter, such as from large-scale forest fires. Recent measurements in a relatively clean location over 5 years showed that OH concentrations can be predicted by the intensity of solar ultraviolet radiation. If this relationship is confirmed by further observations, this approach could be used to simplify assessments of air quality. Analysis of surface-level ozone observations in Antarctica suggests that there has been a significant change in the chemistry of the boundary layer of the atmosphere in this region as a result of stratospheric ozone depletion. The oxidation potential of the Antarctic boundary layer is estimated to be greater now than before the development of the ozone hole. Recent modeling studies have suggested that iodine and iodine-containing substances from natural sources, such as the ocean, may increase stratospheric ozone depletion significantly in polar regions during spring. Given the uncertainty of the fate of iodine in the stratosphere, the results may also be relevant for stratospheric ozone depletion and measurements of the influence of these substances on ozone depletion should be considered in the future. In agreement with known usage and atmospheric loss processes, tropospheric concentrations of HFC-134a, the main human-made source of trifluoroacetic acid (TFA), is increasing rapidly. As HFC-134a is a potent greenhouse gas, this increasing concentration has implications for climate change. However, the risks to humans and the environment from substances, such as TFA, produced by atmospheric degradation of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are considered minimal. Perfluoropolyethers, commonly used as industrial heat transfer fluids and proposed as chlorohydrofluorocarbon (CHFC) substitutes, show great stability to chemical degradation in the atmosphere. These substances have been suggested as substitutes for CHFCs but, as they are very persistent in the atmosphere, they may be important contributors to global warming. It is not known whether these substances will contribute significantly to global warming and its interaction with ozone depletion but they should be considered for further evaluation.