Response of stratospheric water vapour to warming constrained by satellite observations

Future increases in stratospheric water vapour risk amplifying climate change and slowing down the recovery of the ozone layer. However, state-of-the-art climate models strongly disagree on the magnitude of these increases under global warming. Uncertainty primarily arises from the complex processes leading to dehydration of air during its tropical ascent into the stratosphere. Here we derive an observational constraint on this longstanding uncertainty. We use a statistical-learning approach to infer historical co-variations between the atmospheric temperature structure and tropical lower stratospheric water vapour concentrations. For climate models, we demonstrate that these historically constrained relationships are highly predictive of the water vapour response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. We obtain an observationally constrained range for stratospheric water vapour changes per degree of global warming of 0.31 ± 0.39 ppmv K-1. Across 61 climate models, we find that a large fraction of future model projections are inconsistent with observational evidence. In particular, frequently projected strong increases (>1 ppmv K-1) are highly unlikely. Our constraint represents a 50% decrease in the 95th percentile of the climate model uncertainty distribution, which has implications for surface warming, ozone recovery and the tropospheric circulation response under climate change.

The Impact of Cloud Radiative Effects on the Tropical Tropopause Layer Temperatures

A single-column radiative-convective model (RCM) is a useful tool to investigate the physical processes that determine the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) temperature structures. Previous studies on the TTL using the RCMs, however, omitted the cloud radiative effects. In this study, we examine the impact of cloud radiative effects on the simulated TTL temperatures using an RCM. We derive the cloud radiative effects based on satellite observations, which show heating rates in the troposphere but cooling rates in the stratosphere. We find that the cloud radiative effect warms the TTL by as much as 2 K but cools the lower stratosphere by as much as −1.5 K, resulting in a thicker TTL. With (without) considering cloud radiative effects, we obtain a convection top of ≈167 hPa (≈150 hPa) with a temperature of ≈213 K (≈209 K), and a cold point at ≈87 hPa (≈94 hPa) with a temperature of ≈204 K (≈204 K). Therefore, the cloud radiative effects widen the TTL by both lowering the convection-top height and enhancing the cold-point height. We also examine the impact of TTL cirrus radiative effects on the RCM-simulated temperatures. We find that the TTL cirrus warms the TTL with a maximum temperature increase of ≈1.3 K near 110 hPa.

Nonlinear response of tropical lower stratospheric temperature and water vapor to ENSO

A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model are analyzed in order to assess interannual and sub-decadal variability in the tropical lower stratosphere over the past 35 years. The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on temperature and water vapor in this region is nonlinear in boreal spring. While moderate El Niño events lead to cooling in this region, strong El Niño events lead to warming, even as the response of the large scale Brewer Dobson Circulation appears to scale nearly linearly with El Niño. This nonlinearity is shown to arise from the response in the Indo-West Pacific to El Niño: strong El Niño events lead to tropospheric warming extending into the tropical tropopause layer and up to the cold point in this region, where it allows for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. The net effect is that both strong La Niña and strong El Niño events lead to enhanced entry water vapor and stratospheric moistening in boreal spring and early summer. These results lead to the following interpretation of the contribution of sea surface temperatures to the decline in water vapor from the late 1990s to the early 2000s: the very strong El Niño event in 1997/1998, followed by more than two consecutive years of La Niña, led to enhanced lower stratospheric water vapor. As this period ended in early 2001, entry water vapor concentrations declined. This effect accounts for approximately one-quarter of the observed drop.

Transport of ice into the stratosphere and the humidification of the stratosphere over the 21st century

Climate models predict that tropical lower-stratospheric humidity will increase as the climate warms. We examine this trend in two state-of-the-art chemistry-climate models. Under high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the stratospheric entry value of water vapor increases by ~1 part per million by volume (ppmv) over this century in both models. We show with trajectory runs driven by model meteorological fields that the warming tropical tropopause layer (TTL) explains 50-80% of this increase. The remainder is a consequence of trends in evaporation of ice convectively lofted into the TTL and lower stratosphere. Our results further show that, within the models we examined, ice lofting is primarily important on long time scales - on interannual time scales, TTL temperature variations explain most of the variations in lower stratospheric humidity. Assessing the ability of models to realistically represent ice-lofting processes should be a high priority in the modeling community.

UTLS water vapour from SCIAMACHY limb measurementsV3.01 (2002-2012)

The SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY) aboard the Envisat satellite provided measurements from August 2002 until April 2012. SCIAMACHY measured the scattered or direct sunlight using different observation geometries. The limb viewing geometry allows the retrieval of water vapour at about 10-25 km height from the near-infrared spectral range (1353-1410 nm). These data cover the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), a region in the atmosphere which is of special interest for a variety of dynamical and chemical processes as well as for the radiative forcing. Here, the latest data version of water vapour (V3.01) from SCIAMACHY limb measurements is presented and validated by comparisons with data sets from other satellite and in situ measurements. Considering retrieval tests and the results of these comparisons, the V3.01 data are reliable from about 11 to 23 km and the best results are found in the middle of the profiles between about 14 and 20 km. Above 20 km in the extra tropics V3.01 is drier than all other data sets. Additionally, for altitudes above about 19 km, the vertical resolution of the retrieved profile is not sufficient to resolve signals with a short vertical structure like the tape recorder. Below 14 km, SCIAMACHY water vapour V3.01 is wetter than most collocated data sets, but the high variability of water vapour in the troposphere complicates the comparison. For 14-20 km height, the expected errors from the retrieval and simulations and the mean differences to collocated data sets are usually smaller than 10 % when the resolution of the SCIAMACHY data is taken into account. In general, the temporal changes agree well with collocated data sets except for the Northern Hemisphere extratropical stratosphere, where larger differences are observed. This indicates a possible drift in V3.01 most probably caused by the incomplete treatment of volcanic aerosols in the retrieval. In all other regions a good temporal stability is shown. In the tropical stratosphere an increase in water vapour is found between 2002 and 2012, which is in agreement with other satellite data sets for overlapping time periods.

Vertical structure of stratospheric water vapour trends derived from merged satellite data

Stratospheric water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas. The longest available record from balloon observations over Boulder, Colorado, USA shows increases in stratospheric water vapour concentrations that cannot be fully explained by observed changes in the main drivers, tropical tropopause temperatures and methane. Satellite observations could help resolve the issue, but constructing a reliable long-term data record from individual short satellite records is challenging. Here we present an approach to merge satellite data sets with the help of a chemistry-climate model nudged to observed meteorology. We use the models' water vapour as a transfer function between data sets that overcomes issues arising from instrument drift and short overlap periods. In the lower stratosphere, our water vapour record extends back to 1988 and water vapour concentrations largely follow tropical tropopause temperatures. Lower and mid-stratospheric long-term trends are negative, and the trends from Boulder are shown not to be globally representative. In the upper stratosphere, our record extends back to 1986 and shows positive long-term trends. The altitudinal differences in the trends are explained by methane oxidation together with a strengthened lower-stratospheric and a weakened upper-stratospheric circulation inferred by this analysis. Our results call into question previous estimates of surface radiative forcing based on presumed global long-term increases in water vapour concentrations in the lower stratosphere.