Winter-ground microhabitat use by differently coloured phenotypes affects return rate in a long-distance migratory bird

Migratory bird populations are declining globally at alarming rates. Non-breeding site conditions affect breeding populations, but generalising non-breeding habitat conditions over large spatial regions cannot address potential fine-scale differences across landscapes or local populations. Plumage characteristics can mediate the effects of environmental conditions on individual fitness. However, whether different phenotypes use distinctive non-breeding sites, and whether they respond to non-breeding site conditions differently remains largely unknown. Stable isotopes (δ13C, δ15N, δ2H) of inert tissues are useful to infer habitat characteristics and geographic origins where those tissues were grown. We collected winter-grown feathers from pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) on their breeding grounds over several years from males whose dorsal plumage colouration ranged continuously from brown to black and assessed their stable isotope values as proxies of local habitat conditions. Based on feather δ2H profiles we found that browner males spent their non-breeding season in drier habitats than black males. Assignment to origin analysis shows potential regional non-breeding ground separation between differently coloured males. High within-individual repeatability of both δ13C and δ15N indicate the pied flycatcher males return yearly to similar areas. Blacker males were more likely to return to the breeding grounds after dry years compared with brown males. The opposite was found in wet years. Our study demonstrates that different phenotypes are exposed to different non-breeding site conditions which can differentially affect individual survivorship. This has important ramifications for population dynamics under predicted climate change scenarios where especially brown phenotype pied flycatcher males may be under a risk of decreasing.

The influence of climatic and environmental variables on sunflower planting season suitability in Tanzania

Crop survival and growth requires identification of correlations between appropriate suitable planting season and relevant climatic and environmental characteristics. Climatic and environmental conditions may cause water and heat stress at critical stages of crop development and thus affecting planting suitability. Consequently, this may affect crop yield and productivity. This study assesses the influence of climate and environmental variables on rain-fed sunflower planting season suitability in Tanzania. Data on rainfall, temperature, slope, elevation, soil and land use/or cover were accessed from publicly available sources using Google Earth Engine. This is a cloud-based geospatial computing platform for remote sensed datasets. Tanzania sunflower production calendar of 2022 was adopted to mark the start and end limits of planting across the country. The default climate and environmental parameters from FAO database were used. In addition, Pearson correlation was used to evaluate the relationship between rainfall, temperature over Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 2000 to 2020 at five-year interval for January-April and June-September, for high and poor suitability season. The results showed that planting suitability of sunflower in Tanzania is driven more by rainfall than temperature. It was revealed that intra-annual planting suitability increases gradually from short to long- rain season and diminishes towards dry season of the year. January-April planting season window showing highest suitability (41.65%), whereas June-September indicating lowest suitability (0.05%). Though, not statistically significant, rainfall and NDVI were positively correlated with r = 0.65 and 0.75 whereas negative correlation existed between temperature and NDVI with r = -- 0.6 and - 0.77. We recommend sunflower subsector interventions that consider appropriate intra-regional and seasonal diversity as an important adaptive mechanism to ensure high sunflower yields.

Ecological crossovers of sexual signaling in a migratory bird

Environmental shifts may induce sudden reversals in the relative quality or sexual attractiveness of mates (ecological crossovers) leading to non-directional sexual selection. Studies on such ecological crossovers induced by environmental shifts during the nonbreeding season are particularly rare. We studied the interactive effects between nonbreeding conditions and a male white wing patch on the breeding success of breeding pairs and the local survival of females in a migratory passerine population over a 32-year period. After dry winters, females paired with large-patched males were more likely to survive than those paired with small-patched males, and vice versa after moist winters. Moreover, after dry winters, large-patched males succeeded in attracting females that laid large clutches, while small-patched males bred with females that laid small clutches, and vice versa after moist winters. This phenomenon led to a difference in fledgling numbers only during years with dry winters and high precipitation during the breeding season. The selection on this male trait and its signaling value to females thus depended on a complex interaction between conditions both at the nonbreeding and breeding grounds. We show that it is important to consider conditions during the nonbreeding season when examining the effects of sexual ornaments on fitness.

Carry-over effects of conditions at the wintering grounds on breeding plumage signals in a migratory bird: roles of phenotypic plasticity and selection

To understand the consequences of ever-changing environment on the dynamics of phenotypic traits, distinguishing between selection processes and individual plasticity is crucial. We examined individual consistency/plasticity in several male secondary sexual traits expressed during the breeding season (white wing and forehead patch size, UV reflectance of white wing patch and dorsal melanin coloration) in a migratory pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) population over an 11-year period. Furthermore, we studied carry-over effects of three environmental variables (NAO, a climatic index; NDVI, a vegetation index; and rainfall) at the wintering grounds (during prebreeding moult) on the expression of these breeding plumage traits of pied flycatcher males at individual and population levels. Whereas NAO correlates negatively with moisture in West Africa, NDVI correlates positively with primary production. Forehead patch size and melanin coloration were highly consistent within individuals among years, whereas the consistency of the other two traits was moderate. Wing patch size decreased with higher NAO and increased with higher rainfall and NDVI at the individual level. Interestingly, small-patched males suffered lower survival during high NAO winters than large-patched males, and vice versa during low NAO winters. These counteracting processes meant that the individual-level change was masked at the population level where no relationship was found. Our results provide a good example of how variation in the phenotypic composition of a natural population can be a result of both environment-dependent individual plasticity and short-term microevolution. Moreover, when plasticity and viability selection operate simultaneously, their impacts on population composition may not be evident.

Are vegetation-related roughness changes the cause of the recent decrease in dust emission from the Sahel?

[1] Since the 1980s, a dramatic downward trend in North African dustiness and transport to the tropical Atlantic Ocean has been observed by different data sets and methods. The precise causes of this trend have previously been difficult to understand, partly due to the sparse observational record. Here we show that a decrease in surface wind speeds associated with increased roughness due to more vegetation in the Sahel is the most likely cause of the observed drop in dust emission. Associated changes in turbulence and evapotranspiration, and changes in large-scale circulation, are secondary contributors. Past work has tried to explain negative correlations between North African dust and precipitation through impacts on emission thresholds due to changes in soil moisture and vegetation cover. The use of novel diagnostic tools applied here to long-term surface observations suggests that this is not the dominating effect. Our results are consistent with a recently observed global decrease in surface wind speed, known as "stilling", and demonstrate the importance of representing vegetation-related roughness changes in models. They also offer a new mechanism of how land-use change and agriculture can impact the Sahelian climate. Citation: Cowie, S. M., P. Knippertz, and J. H. Marsham (2013), Are vegetation-related roughness changes the cause of the recent decrease in dust emission from the Sahel?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1868-1872, doi:10.1002/grl.50273.