Interplay of Climate Change and Air Pollution- Projection of the under-5 mortality attributable to ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) in South Asia

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution is a leading health risk factor for children under- 5 years, especially in developing countries. South Asia is a PM2.5 hotspot, where climate change, a potential factor affecting PM2.5 pollution, adds a major challenge. However, limited evidence is available on under-5 mortality attributable to PM2.5 under different climate change scenarios. This study aimed to project under-5 mortality attributable to long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 under seven air pollution and climate change mitigation scenarios in South Asia. We used a concentration-risk function obtained from a previous review to project under-5 mortality attributable to ambient PM2.5. With a theoretical minimum risk exposure level of 2.4 μg/m3, this risk function was linked to gridded annual PM2.5 concentrations from atmospheric modeling to project under-5 mortality from 2010 to 2049 under different climate change mitigation scenarios. The scenarios were developed from the Aim/Endues global model based on end-of-pipe (removing the emission of air pollutants at the source, EoP) and 2 °C target measures. Our results showed that, in 2010-2014, about 306.8 thousand under-5 deaths attributable to PM2.5 occurred in South Asia under the Reference (business as usual) scenario. The number of deaths was projected to increase in 2045-2049 by 36.6% under the same scenario and 7.7% under the scenario where EoP measures would be partially implemented by developing countries (EoPmid), and was projected to decrease under other scenarios, with the most significant decrease (81.2%) under the scenario where EoP measures would be fully enhanced by all countries along with the measures to achieve 2 °C target (EoPmaxCCSBLD) across South Asia. Country-specific projections of under-5 mortality varied by country. The current emission control strategy would not be sufficient to reduce the number of deaths in South Asia. Robust climate change mitigation and air pollution control policy implementation is required.

Assessment of tropospheric ozone simulations in a regional chemical transport model using GEOS-Chem outputs as chemical boundary conditions

Regional chemical transport models (e.g., Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System) are widely used to simulate the physical and chemical process of regional ozone (O3) pollution and its variation trend in recent years. However, chemical boundary condition (CBC) is an important input of these models and contributes to the model bias against observations. In this study, we develop a tool named GC2CMAQ that provides the CMAQ model with the CBCs from the GEOS-Chem simulation. Two experiments using different CBCs were conducted to evaluate their effect on seasonal O3 simulation in China. The Default experiment utilized the model-default static condition (the relatively clean atmosphere in the eastern United States), and the GC experiment employed the GEOS-Chem simulation results. Compared with the observation, the GC experiment has a much better performance in reproducing elevated O3 levels in the higher troposphere and lower stratosphere during different seasons. Near the earth's surface, the simulated concentrations of pollutants O3 (and PM2.5) in the GC experiment were also closer to the observation in April and July. The accuracy of simulation results in provinces close to the boundary was improved by approximately 20 %-30 % relative to the Default experiment. The CBCs provided by GEOS-Chem enabled a better simulation of stratosphere-troposphere O3 exchange in late spring and early summer, which then affected the pollutant concentration near surfaces through vertical transport. This finding was confirmed by a case study in southwestern Tibet on April 28, 2017, in which we quantified the contributions of different physical and chemical processes to O3 variations at different altitudes using the process analysis method. This study highlights the importance of using a reliable CBC for the regional chemical transport model to derive a better performance of O3 simulation.

Trace gas emissions from laboratory combustion of leaves typically consumed in forest fires in Southwest China

Forest fires are becoming increasingly severe and frequent due to global climate change. Trace gases emitted from forest fires significantly affect atmospheric chemistry and climate change on a regional and global scale. Forest fires occur frequently in Southwest China, but systematic studies on trace gas emissions from forest fires in Southwest China are rare. Leaves of seven typical vegetation fuels based on their prominence in forest fires consumption in Southwest China were burned in a self-designed combustion device and the emission factors of eighteen trace gases (greenhouse gases, non-methane organic gases, nitrogenous gases, hydrogen chloride, and sulfur dioxide) at specific combustion stages (flaming and smoldering) were determined by using Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, respectively. The emission factors data presented were compared with previous studies and can aid in the construction of an emission inventory. Pine needle combustion released a greater amount of methane in the smoldering stage than other broadleaf combustion. Peak values of emission factors for methane and non-methane organic gas are emitted by the smoldering of vegetation (Pinus kesiya and Pinus yunnanensis), which is endemic to forest fires in Southwest China. The emission factor for oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs) in the smoldering stage is greater than the flaming stage. This work established the relationship between modified combustion efficiency (MCE) with emission factors of hydrocarbons (except acetylene) and OVOCs. The results show that exponential fitting is more suitable than linear fitting for the seven leaf fuels (four broadleaf and three coniferous). However, the emission factors from the combustion of three coniferous fuels relative to all fuels are linear with MCE. Findings demonstrated that different combustion stages and fuel types have significant impacts on the emission factors, which also highlighted the importance of studying regional emissions.

Qualitative Study on the Observations of Emissions, Transport, and the Influence of Climatic Factors from Sugarcane Burning: A South African Perspective

There are two methods of harvesting sugarcane—manual or mechanical. Manual harvesting requires the burning of the standing sugarcane crop. Burning of the crop results in the emission of aerosols and harmful trace gases into the atmosphere. This work makes use of a long-term dataset (1980–2019) to study (1) the atmospheric spatial and vertical distribution of pollutants; (2) the spatial distribution and temporal change of biomass emissions; and (3) the impact/influence of climatic factors on temporal change in atmospheric pollutant loading and biomass emissions over the Mpumalanga and KwaZulu Natal provinces in South Africa, where sugarcane farming is rife. Black carbon (BC) and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) are two dominant pollutants in the JJA and SON seasons due to sugarcane burning. Overall, there was an increasing trend in the emissions of BC, SO₂, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) from 1980 to 2019. Climatic conditions, such as warm temperature, high wind speed, dry conditions in the JJA, and SON season, favor the intensity and spread of the fire, which is controlled. The emitted pollutants are transported to neighboring countries and can travel over the Atlantic Ocean, as far as ~6600 km from the source site.

Study on the variation characteristics of tropospheric ozone in Northeast China

The goal of this study was to understand the current status of ozone pollution in Northeast China and to distinguish the main influencing factors of ozone, in order to provide a scientific basis for the future prevention and control of ozone in this region. In this study, the Ozone Monitoring Instrument data product was used as the source data, and the pixel space analysis method and grey correlation analysis method were utilized to examine the tropospheric ozone column concentration in Northeast China from 2010 to 2018. The results revealed that the ozone column concentration in Northeast China was relatively high compared to other parts of the country. The high-value areas were primarily distributed in Tahe County, Heihe City, Hegang City, and Qiqihar City. The temporal variation of the ozone column concentration in Northeast China exhibited an obvious periodicity of 9 years, and its interannual change displayed a downward trend. The maximum value occurred in 2010, and the minimum value was found in 2016. The seasonal changes manifested a relative trend of spring > winter > summer > autumn, which was contrary to the research results for other parts of China, which showed a summer maximum. Among the influencing factors, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, sunshine hours, GDP, and primary and secondary industries exhibited the closest relationships with ozone. The high concentration of ozone in Northeast China was determined to result from the superimposed effects of long-distance atmospheric transport and anthropogenic emissions.

Ozone pollution in China: Background and transboundary contributions to ozone concentration & related health effects across the country

China experiences high ozone concentrations with highest annual 8-hour maximum concentration in eastern China of 78 μg/m³ and was followed by southern (73 μg/m³), north-western (69 μg/m³), northern (68 μg/m³), central (67 μg/m³), north eastern (65 μg/m³) and south-western China (59 μg/m³). Ozone concentration peaked in spring season in 4 (eastern, northern, north eastern & central) of 7 regions across China while lowest concentration in most regions across China was experienced in winter season with central and southern China being the only exceptions. Regions outside Asia contributed ozone to all regions across China with highest contributions in 4 (East, Central, North & Northeast) of the 7 regions. South-western China had the largest ozone contribution from outside (23%) and was followed by 16.39% outside ozone contribution in north-western China, 11.64% contribution in north eastern China, 11% contribution in northern China, 7.85% contribution in southern China, 5.28% contribution in central China while 4.56% contribution in eastern China. Policy relevant background (PRB) concentration was above 47 μg/m³ in all regions across China and contributed about 71-94% to total ozone concentration with highest PRB concentration of 65.25 μg/m³ recorded in north-west China. China recorded 93,351 (95%CI: 11001-169,898) ozone related premature mortality in 2015 with 42,673 (95%CI: 11001-69,586) respiratory mortality and 50,678 (95%CI: 0-100,312) cardiovascular mortality. Northern and eastern China recorded high ozone related mortality with 18,230 (95%CI: 4700-29,727) & 12,261 (95%CI: 3161-19,993) respiratory and 21,662 (95%CI: 0-42,877) & 14,528 (95%CI: 0-28,757) cardiovascular deaths respectively. In terms of foreign contributions, premature mortality due to ozone from outside Asia contributed the most to China with 1070 (95%CI: 276-1746) respiratory mortality and 1270 (95%CI: 0-2515) cardiovascular mortality. East Asia contributed to about 419 (95%CI: 109-679) respiratory deaths and 501 (95%CI: 0-989) cardiovascular deaths while North Asia contributed to 220 (95%CI: 56-358) respiratory mortality and 260 (95%CI, 0-515) cardiovascular mortality.

Source apportionment of carbon monoxide over India: a quantitative analysis using MOZART-4

MOZART-4 chemistry transport model has been used to examine the contribution of carbon monoxide (CO) from different source regions/types by tagging their emissions in model simulations. These simulations are made using tagged tracer approach to estimate the relative contribution of different geographical regions and different emission sources, such as anthropogenic or biomass burning to the CO concentration at the surface, in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), and in the free troposphere (FT) over the Indian sub-continent. The CO budget analyses highlight the significant contribution of the Indian emissions on surface CO and influence of chemical production on the free tropospheric CO concentration. The total CO mixing ratio is estimated as 263 ± 139 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) for surface, 177 ± 71 ppbv for PBL, and 112 ± 14 ppbv for FT. The percentage contributions of primary sources are found to be 80%, 68%, and 53% at the surface, in the PBL, and in the FT, respectively. The sub-regional analysis of India shows that anthropogenic and photochemical processes contribute 41-75% and 15-46% CO, respectively, at the surface. Maximum percentage contribution of anthropogenic CO is observed over Indo-Gangetic Plain and Eastern India (75%). CO contribution from local anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions and transported from other global source regions are analyzed over the Indian region at the surface, in the PBL, and in the FT. The local anthropogenic sources contribute largest to the surface CO over India with 108 ppbv, followed by China with 98 ppbv, Europe with 55 ppbv, North America (NA) with 46 ppbv, and South-east Asia (SEA) and Middle East (ME) with 23 ppbv each. India's PBL (FT) CO is mostly influenced by China's anthropogenic emissions with 12 ppbv (8 ppbv) followed by SEA with 7 ppbv (6 ppbv). Surface biomass burning CO over India (6 ppbv) is much lower than in other regions such as SEA (32 ppbv), Africa (24 ppbv), and South America (11 ppbv). In the PBL (FT), SEA and Africa's BB emissions show major impact on CO over India with 6 ppbv (5 ppbv) and 5 ppbv (4 ppbv), respectively.

Role of emissions and meteorology in the recent PM2.5 changes in China and South Korea from 2015 to 2018

In this study, we examined the change rates of PM_2.5 concentrations, aerosol optical depth (AOD), and the concentrations of PM_2.5 precursors, such as SO₂ and NO₂, in China and South Korea using surface and satellite observations from 2015 to 2018. To quantify the impacts of the emissions and meteorology on the concentration changes, we performed a series of air quality simulations with year-specific meteorology and a fixed anthropogenic emissions inventory. The surface PM_2.5 observations in China and South Korea decreased at rates of 9.1 and 4.3%/yr during the study period, respectively. The AODs from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) also decreased faster over China than the AODs over South Korea. For the PM_2.5 decrease in China, the emission impact was more significant (73%) than the meteorology impact (27%). On the contrary, in South Korea, the emissions and meteorology impacts on PM_2.5 reductions were similar (51% vs 49%). The SO₂ concentration over China in 2018 significantly reduced to approximately half of the level in 2015. In turn, the sulfate concentration in Baengnyeong (BN), located in a downwind pathway from China to South Korea, decreased at a rate of 0.79%/month. However, the nitrate concentration in BN showed an increasing trend due to the non-linear chemical reactions among sulfate-nitrate-ammonium. The increased nitrate compensated for the reduced PM_2.5 concentration from the sulfate decrease at BN. Additionally, the number of high (>50 μg/m³) PM_2.5 concentration days continuously decreased in China, but the number in South Korea increased. It is noted that emission reductions in an upwind area do not guarantee corresponding air quality improvement in the downwind area when complex secondary aerosol formation processes, as well as spatiotemporal changes in meteorology, are involved in the transboundary transport of air pollutants.

Mapping ozone source-receptor relationship and apportioning the health impact in the Pearl River Delta region using adjoint sensitivity analysis

While fine particulate matters are decreasing in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, the regional ozone (O₃) shows an increasing trend that affects human health, leading to an urgent need for scientific understanding of source-receptor relationship between O₃ and its precursor emissions given the changing background composition. We advanced and applied an adjoint air quality model to map contributions of individual O₃ precursor emission sources [nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and volatile organic compound (VOC)] at each location to annual regional O₃ concentrations and to identify the possible dominant influential pathways of emission sources to O₃ at different spatiotemporal scales. Additionally, we introduced the novel adjoint sensitivity approach to assess the relationship between precursor emissions and O₃-induced premature mortality. Adjoint results show that Shenzhen was a major source contributor to regional O₃ throughout all seasons, of which 49.4% (3.8%) were from its NO_x (VOC) emissions. Local emissions (within PRD) contributed to 83% of the regional O₃ whereas only ~54% of the estimated ~4000 regional O₃-induced premature mortalities. The discrepancy between these two contributions was because O₃-induced mortalities are dependent on not only O₃ concentration, but incident rate and population density. We also found that a city with low O₃-induced mortalities could have significant emission contributions to health impact in the region since the transport pathways could be through transport of local O₃ or through transport of O₃ precursors that form regional O₃ thereafter. It is therefore necessary to formulate emission control policies from both air quality and public health perspectives, and it is also critical to have better understanding of influential pathways of emission sources to O₃.

Source contributions of surface ozone in China using an adjoint sensitivity analysis

Air pollution has become an adverse environmental problem in China, resulting in serious public health impacts. This study advanced and applied the CMAQ adjoint model to quantitatively assess the source-receptor relationships between surface ozone (O₃) changes over different receptor regions and precursor emissions across all locations in China. Five receptor regions were defined based on the administrative division, including northern China (NC), southern China (SC), Pearl River Delta region (PRD), Yangtz River Delta region (YRD), and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (BTH). Our results identified the different influential pathways of atmospheric processes and emissions to O₃ pollution. We found that the atmospheric processes such as horizontal and vertical advection could offset the O₃ removal through chemical reactions in VOC-limited areas inside the receptor regions. In addition, O₃ pollution can be induced by transport of O₃ directly or its precursors. Our results of relative source contributions to O₃ show that transboundary O₃ pollution was significant in SC, NC and YRD, while the O₃ pollution in PRD and BTH were more contributed by local sources. Anhui, Hubei and Jiangsu provinces were the three largest source areas of NO_x and VOC emissions to O₃ in SC (>52%) and YRD (>69%). NO_x and VOC emissions from Tianjin and Beijing were the largest contributors to O₃ in NC (>34%) and BTH (>51%). PRD was the dominant source areas of NO_x (>89%) and VOC emissions (~98%) to its own regional O₃.

Quantifying Arctic lower stratospheric ozone sources in winter and spring

The dynamical and chemical characteristics of unusually low Arctic ozone events in 2005 and 2011 have been well-studied. However, the quantitative identification of Arctic ozone sources is lacking. Here, we use tagged ozone tracers in a numerical simulation to quantify the contributions to Arctic lower stratospheric ozone (ARCLS_O3) at diverse latitudes in winter and spring from 2005-2011. We demonstrate that the northern mid-latitudinal stratosphere steadily contributes approximately half of ARCLS_O3. The absolute contributions during February have evident variations, which are smaller in cold years (151.3 ± 7.0 Dobson units (DU) in 2005 and 139.0 ± 7.4 DU in 2011) and greater in warm years (182.6 ± 7.3 DU in 2006 and 164.6 ± 7.4 DU in 2009). The tropical stratosphere is also an important source. During February, its absolute contributions are 66.5 ± 11.5 DU (2005), 73.1 ± 4.7 DU (2011), 146.0 ± 9.0 DU (2006), and 153.7 ± 7.0 DU (2009). Before and after stratospheric warming, variations in the tropical components of ARCLS_O3 (51.8 DU in 2006 and 77.0 DU in 2009) are significantly larger than those in the mid-latitudinal components (17.6 DU in 2006 and 18.1 DU in 2009). These results imply that although the mid-latitudinal components of ARCLS_O3 are larger, the tropical components control stratospheric temperature-induced ARCLS_O3 anomalies in winter and spring.

Long-Lived Species Enhance Summertime Attribution of North American Ozone to Upwind Sources

Ground-level ozone (O₃), harmful to most living things, is produced from both domestic and foreign emissions of anthropogenic precursors. Previous estimates of the linkage from distant sources rely on the sensitivity approach (i.e., modeling the change of ozone concentrations that result from modifying precursor emissions) as well as the tagging approach (i.e., tracking ozone produced from specific O₃ precursors emitted from one region). Here, for the first time, we tag all O₃ precursors (i.e., nitrogen oxides (NO_x), carbon monoxide (CO), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs)) from East Asia and explicitly track their physicochemical evolution without perturbing the nonlinear O₃ chemistry. We show that, even in summer, when intercontinental influence on ozone has typically been found to be weakest, nearly 3 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) seasonal average surface O₃ over North America can be attributed to East Asian anthropogenic emissions, compared with 0.7 ppbv using the sensitivity approach and 0.5 ppbv by tagging reactive nitrogen oxides. Considering the acute effects of O₃ exposure, approximately 670 cardiovascular and 300 respiratory premature mortalities within North America could be attributed to East Asia. CO and longer-lived VOCs, largely overlooked in previous studies, extend the influence of regional ozone precursors emissions and, thus, greatly enhance O₃ attribution to source region.

Technical note: Coordination and harmonization of the multi-scale, multi-model activities HTAP2, AQMEII3, and MICS-Asia3: simulations, emission inventories, boundary conditions, and model output formats

We present an overview of the coordinated global numerical modelling experiments performed during 2012–2016 by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP), the regional experiments by the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) over Europe and North America, and the Model Intercomparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia). To improve model estimates of the impacts of intercontinental transport of air pollution on climate, ecosystems, and human health and to answer a set of policy-relevant questions, these three initiatives performed emission perturbation modelling experiments consistent across the global, hemispheric, and continental/regional scales. In all three initiatives, model results are extensively compared against monitoring data for a range of variables (meteorological, trace gas concentrations, and aerosol mass and composition) from different measurement platforms (ground measurements, vertical profiles, airborne measurements) collected from a number of sources. Approximately 10 to 25 modelling groups have contributed to each initiative, and model results have been managed centrally through three data hubs maintained by each initiative. Given the organizational complexity of bringing together these three initiatives to address a common set of policy-relevant questions, this publication provides the motivation for the modelling activity, the rationale for specific choices made in the model experiments, and an overview of the organizational structures for both the modelling and the measurements used and analysed in a number of modelling studies in this special issue.

Seasonality of global and Arctic black carbon processes in the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme models

This study quantifies black carbon (BC) processes in three global climate models and one chemistry transport model, with focus on the seasonality of BC transport, emissions, wet and dry deposition in the Arctic. In the models, transport of BC to the Arctic from lower latitudes is the major BC source for this region. Arctic emissions are very small. All models simulated a similar annual cycle of BC transport from lower latitudes to the Arctic, with maximum transport occurring in July. Substantial differences were found in simulated BC burdens and vertical distributions, with Canadian Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM) (Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM) producing the strongest (weakest) seasonal cycle. CanAM also has the shortest annual mean residence time for BC in the Arctic followed by Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Multiscale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry model, Community Earth System Model, and NorESM. Overall, considerable differences in wet deposition efficiencies in the models exist and are a leading cause of differences in simulated BC burdens. Results from model sensitivity experiments indicate that convective scavenging outside the Arctic reduces the mean altitude of BC residing in the Arctic, making it more susceptible to scavenging by stratiform (layer) clouds in the Arctic. Consequently, scavenging of BC in convective clouds outside the Arctic acts to substantially increase the overall efficiency of BC wet deposition in the Arctic, which leads to low BC burdens and a more pronounced seasonal cycle compared to simulations without convective BC scavenging. In contrast, the simulated seasonality of BC concentrations in the upper troposphere is only weakly influenced by wet deposition in stratiform clouds, whereas lower tropospheric concentrations are highly sensitive.

A case study of surface ozone source apportionment during a high concentration episode, under frequent shifting wind conditions over the Yangtze River Delta, China

Surface ozone is an environmental issue occurring at several scales, ranging from local to continental. One of the most developed regions in China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), experiences severe tropospheric ozone problem. Hence, quantifying the contributions from various geographical source regions is helpful for better understanding the regional ozone problem. Ozone source apportionment studies can provide relevant information for designing suitable air pollution protection strategies. In the present work, the WRF-Chem model coupled with an online ozone tagging method is applied to a case study, with the objective of exploring the ozone contributions to the surface ozone from different source regions over the YRD region, during a frequent wind-shifting period. Our results show that the YRD was highly affected by the upwind source regions bearing high values both ozone and its precursors. The contribution from the source region outside the main air pollution zones in the Central Eastern China (super regional contribution) was also important, accounting for more than 30 ppb of daytime maximum mean ozone concentrations. Ozone arising from increased local and regional emissions during high-concentration events was more significant than super regional contribution. It reveals that the ozone from Anhui region was transported through vertical mixing and horizontal advection to receptor areas in the YRD during the study time focus. Chemical process contributed significantly at ground and high altitude levels of 500 and 1000 m. However, most of the ozone from the remote regions of Henan and Hubei provinces was transported to the receptor of Nanjing through physical processes. The vertical mixing process played a crucial positive role at super regional scales, with regard to the formation of surface ozone over the YRD region during the addressed time interval.

Origins of tropospheric ozone interannual variation (IAV) over Réunion: A model investigation

Observations from long-term ozonesonde measurements show robust variations and trends in the evolution of ozone in the middle and upper troposphere over Réunion Island (21.1°S, 55.5°E) in June-August. Here we examine possible causes of the observed ozone variation at Réunion Island using hindcast simulations by the stratosphere-troposphere Global Modeling Initiative chemical transport model (GMI-CTM) for 1992-2014, driven by assimilated Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields. Réunion Island is at the edge of the subtropical jet, a region of strong stratospheric-tropospheric exchange (STE). Our analysis implies that the large interannual variation (IAV) of upper tropospheric ozone over Réunion is driven by the large IAV of the stratospheric influence. The IAV of the large-scale, quasi-horizontal wind patterns also contributes to the IAV of ozone in the upper troposphere. Comparison to a simulation with constant emissions indicates that increasing emissions do not lead to the maximum trend in the middle and upper troposphere over Réunion during austral winter implied by the sonde data. The effects of increasing emission over southern Africa are limited to the lower troposphere near the surface in August - September.

Seasonal trends, meteorological impacts, and associated health risks with atmospheric concentrations of gaseous pollutants at an Indian coastal city

This study presents surface ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) measurements conducted at Bhubaneswar from December 2010 to November 2012 and attempts for the very first time a health risk assessment of the atmospheric trace gases. Seasonal variation in average 24 h O3 and CO shows a distinct winter (December to February) maxima of 38.98 ± 9.32 and 604.51 ± 145.91 ppbv, respectively. O3 and CO characteristics and their distribution were studied in the form of seasonal/diurnal variations, air flow patterns, inversion conditions, and meteorological parameters. The observed winter high is likely due to higher regional emissions, the presence of a shallower boundary layer, and long-range transport of pollutants from the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). Large differences between daytime and nighttime O3 values during winter compared to other seasons suggest that photochemistry is much more active on this site during winter. O3 and CO observations are classified in continental and marine air masses, and continental influence is estimated to increase O3 and CO by up to 20 and 120 ppbv, respectively. Correlation studies between O3 and CO in various seasons indicated the role of CO as one of the O3 precursors. Health risk estimates predict 48 cases of total premature mortality in adults due to ambient tropospheric O3 during the study period. Comparatively low CO concentrations at the site do not lead to any health effects even during winter. This study highlights the possible health risks associated with O3 and CO pollution in Bhubaneswar, but these results are derived from point measurements and should be complemented either with regional scale observations or chemical transport models for use in design of mitigation policies.

Surface ozone concentrations and ecosystem health: past trends and a guide to future projections

This paper reviews current understanding of the sources and sinks of ozone in the troposphere, recent studies of long-term trends, and the factors which have to be taken into consideration when constructing and interpreting future models of ozone concentration. The factors controlling surface O(3) concentrations are discussed initially to provide a basis for the ensuing discussion, followed by a summary of the evidence for recent trends in ground-level ozone concentrations, i.e. over the past 3 decades, which have shown a significant increase in the annual average in 'background' air typical of the unpolluted northern hemisphere. Closer to precursor sources, although urban winter concentrations have increased, rural peak spring and summer concentrations during ozone 'episodes' have decreased markedly in response to emissions reductions. In order to determine whether such trends are meaningful, the statistical techniques for determining temporal trends are reviewed. The possible causes of long-term trends in ozone are then discussed, with particular reference to the use of chemistry-transport models to interpret past trends. Such models are also used to make predictions of future trends in surface ozone concentrations, but few are comprehensive in integrating future climate changes with changes in land use and in emissions of ozone precursors. Guidance is given on the likely effects of climate/precursor/chemistry interactions so that model predictions can be judged.