Island refuges for surviving nuclear winter and other abrupt sunlight-reducing catastrophes

Some island nations in the Southern Hemisphere might survive a severe sun-reducing catastrophe such as nuclear winter and be well placed to help reboot-collapsed human civilization. Such islands must be resilient to the cascading effects abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (ASRS) would impose beyond the impacts on agricultural systems. We aimed to identify island nations whose societies are most likely to survive nuclear winter or other ASRS. We also aimed to conduct a case study of one island nation to consider how it might enhance its resilience and therefore its chance of aiding a global reboot of complex technological society. We performed a threshold analysis on food self-sufficiency under severe nuclear winter conditions to identify islands. We then profiled each island across global macroindices representing resilience factors reported in the literature. We undertook a case study of the island nation of New Zealand. The island nations of Australia, New Zealand, Iceland, the Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu appear most resilient to ASRS. However, our case-study island nation of New Zealand is threatened in scenarios of no/low trade, has precarious aspects of its energy supply, and shortcomings in manufacturing of essential components. Therefore, inadequate preparations and critical failures in these systems could see rapid societal breakdown. Despite some islands' favorable baseline conditions and apparent food security even in a severe ASRS, cascading impacts through other socioecological systems threaten complex functioning. We identified specific resilience measures, many with cobenefits, which may protect island nodes of sustained complexity in ASRS.

Mathematical optimization of frost resistant crop production to ensure food supply during a nuclear winter catastrophe

This study aimed to estimate the optimal mix of frost resistant crops and land area needed to provide basic nutrition during various nuclear winter scenarios for New Zealand (NZ), a temperate island nation. It used linear programming to minimize land area required for cropping while producing enough food to achieve dietary energy and protein requirements for the whole population. The potential agricultural impacts of three nuclear winter scenarios on NZ, were sourced from the literature. The optimized combinations of frost resistant crops that were found to feed the entire population were, in descending order: wheat and carrots; sugar beet; oats; onions and carrots; cabbage and barley; canola and cabbage; linseed and parsnip; rye and lupins; swede and field beans; and cauliflower. But in terms of current production levels of these frost resistant crops in NZ, there would be a 26% shortfall for the "war without a nuclear winter" scenario and a 71% shortfall for the severe nuclear winter scenario (150 Tg of soot in the stratosphere with a 61% decline in crop yields). In conclusion, at current production levels, frost resistant food crops could not feed all NZ citizens following a nuclear war. There is a need for the NZ Government to conduct a detailed pre-war analysis on how these shortfalls are best addressed. For example, by: increased pre-war production of these crops and/or post-war scalability; growing enough frost sensitive crops (i.e., in greenhouses or the warmest parts of the country); and/or ensuring continuing production of food derived from livestock fed on frost resistant grasses.

Impact of the Tambora volcanic eruption of 1815 on islands and relevance to future sunlight-blocking catastrophes

Island nations may have potential long-term survival value for humanity in global catastrophes such as sun-blocking catastrophes from nuclear winter and large magnitude volcanic eruptions. One way to explore this issue further is to understand the impact on islands after the largest historically observed volcanic eruption: that of Mt Tambora in 1815. For each of the 31 large, populated islands selected, we conducted literature searches for relevant historical and palaeoclimate studies. We also analysed results from a reconstruction (EKF400v2), which uses atmospheric-only general circulation model simulations with assimilated observational and proxy data. From the literature review, there was widespread evidence for weather/climate anomalies in 1815-1817 for these islands (29/29 for those with data). But missing data was an issue for other dimensions such as impaired food production (seen in 8 islands out of only 12 with data). Based on the EKF400v2 reconstruction for temperature anomalies (compared to the relatively "non-volcanic" reference period of 1779 to 1808), the islands had lower temperature anomalies in the 1815-1818 period than latitudinally equivalent continental sites (at 100 km and 1000 km inland). This was statistically significant for the great majority of the comparisons for group analyses by hemisphere, oceans, and temperate/tropical zone. When considering just the islands, all but four showed statistically anomalous temperature reductions in the 1816-1817 period (for most p < 0.00001). In the peak impact year of 1816, the lowest anomalies were seen for islands in the Southern Hemisphere (p < 0.0001), the Indian Ocean (p < 0.0001), and in the tropics and subtropics of the Southern Hemisphere (p = 0.0057). In conclusion, the findings of both the literature review and reconstruction simulations suggest climatic impacts of the Tambora eruption for nearly all these 31 large islands, albeit less than for continental sites. Islands with the smallest temperature anomalies were in the Southern Hemisphere, in particular the Indian Ocean and the tropics and subtropics of the Southern Hemisphere.

Leveraging Intellectual Property to Prevent Nuclear War

Although international law forbids nuclear attacks, only nine states have mutually assured destruction available to prevent direct attacks against themselves, while non-nuclear states have few substantive options to deter a nuclear attack. This study analyzes the economic impacts of a theoretical international agreement that eliminates patent rights for any nuclear aggressor (i.e., free global compulsory licensing of all intellectual property (IP) for a nuclear aggressor). The results found that all but one of the nuclear states would have a significant economic disincentive to start a nuclear attack if the proposal was put into force. Payback times ranged from 1.2 to 40 years, where the entire GDP of a nuclear aggressor would be needed to offset the loss for aggression, indicate such a mechanism as a whole would be an effective nuclear deterrent. This method would not be universally effective without ensuring all nuclear states are members of the international economy and IP processes. With the growth of open-source products and reduced value of patents, this mechanism does have a limited effectiveness time. Currently it appears to be a policy trajectory worthy of future work that can enhance safety from nuclear threat without causing harm to countries of goodwill.

Methane Single Cell Protein: Potential to Secure a Global Protein Supply Against Catastrophic Food Shocks

Global catastrophes such as a supervolcanic eruption, asteroid impact, or nuclear winter could cause global agricultural collapse due to reduced sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface. The human civilization’s food production system is unprepared to respond to such events, but methane single cell protein (SCP) could be a key part of the solution. Current preparedness centers around food stockpiling, an excessively expensive solution given that an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario (ASRS) could hamper conventional agriculture for 5–10 years. Instead, it is more cost-effective to consider resilient food production techniques requiring little to no sunlight. This study analyses the potential of SCP produced from methane (natural gas and biogas) as a resilient food source for global catastrophic food shocks from ASRS. The following are quantified: global production potential of methane SCP, capital costs, material and energy requirements, ramp-up rates, and retail prices. In addition, potential bottlenecks for fast deployment are considered. While providing a more valuable, protein-rich product than its alternatives, the production capacity could be slower to ramp up. Based on 24/7 construction of facilities, 7%–11% of the global protein requirements could be fulfilled at the end of the first year. Despite significant remaining uncertainties, methane SCP shows significant potential to prevent global protein starvation during an ASRS at an affordable price—US$3–5/kg dry.

Reproduction technologies for the sustainable management of Caudata (salamander) and Gymnophiona (caecilian) biodiversity

We review the use of reproduction technologies (RTs) to support the sustainable management of threatened Caudata (salamanders) and Gymnophiona (caecilian) biodiversity in conservation breeding programs (CBPs) or through biobanking alone. The Caudata include ∼760 species with ∼55% threatened, the Gymnophiona include ∼215 species with an undetermined but substantial number threatened, with 80% of Caudata and 65% of Gymnophiona habitat unprotected. Reproduction technologies include: (1) the exogenous hormonal induction of spermatozoa, eggs, or mating, (2) in vitro fertilisation, (3) intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI), (4) the refrigerated storage of spermatozoa, (5) the cryopreservation of sperm, cell or tissues, (6) cloning, and (7) gonadal tissue or cell transplantation into living amphibians to eventually produce gametes and then individuals. Exogenous hormone regimens have been applied to 11 Caudata species to stimulate mating and to 14 species to enable the collection of spermatozoa or eggs. In vitro fertilisation has been successful in eight species, spermatozoa have been cryopreserved in seven species, and in two species in vitro fertilisation with cryopreserved spermatozoa has resulted in mature reproductive adults. However, the application of RTs to Caudata needs research and development over a broader range of species. Reproduction technologies are only now being developed for Gymnophiona, with many discoveries and pioneering achievement to be made. Species with the potential for repopulation are the focus of the few currently available amphibian CBPs. As Caudata and Gymnophiona eggs or larvae cannot be cryopreserved, and the capacity of CBPs is limited, the perpetuation of the biodiversity of an increasing number of species depends on the development of RTs to recover female individuals from cryopreserved and biobanked cells or tissues.

Assessment of the Effect of Urban Agriculture on Achieving a Localized Food System Centered on Chicago, IL Using Robust Optimization

In this work, nonrobust (average yield) and robust (varying yield) optimization techniques were applied to find the minimum radius required from the center of Chicago, Illinois, United States (U.S.) and land area by type to meet the population's nutritional needs given yield data for conventional and urban agricultural products. Twenty-eight nutrients were considered, and land type availability was defined using satellite data. No mix of food items were able to satisfy the vitamin D, vitamin B₁₂, and calcium needs within a radius up to 650 km. With vitamin D fortification, radii between 175 and 185 km (nonrobust) and 205 and 220 km (robust) were found across scenarios. The inclusion of urban agriculture reduced the radius by 10-15 km and increased the diversity of foods in the solution. When vitamin B₁₂ was supplemented, the radii could be reduced to 105-120 km (nonrobust) and 115-130 km (robust). This work demonstrates the need to include a full list of nutrients when evaluating the feasibility of localizing food systems. Key nutrient fortification or supplementation may significantly reduce the land area required to meet the nutritional needs of a population.

Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war

Nuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong prewar fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 ± 3% and 29 ± 7% after a US-Russia war under business-as-usual fishing-similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1 to 2 y) catch by at most ∼30% followed by precipitous declines of up to ∼70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective prewar management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace ∼43 ± 35% of today's global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management.

Surface Warming During the 2018/Mars Year 34 Global Dust Storm

The impact of Mars's 2018 Global Dust Storm (GDS) on surface and near-surface air temperatures was investigated using an assimilation of Mars Climate Sounder observations. Rather than simply resulting in cooling everywhere from solar absorption (average surface radiative flux fell 26 W/m2), the globally averaged result was a 0.9-K surface warming. These diurnally averaged surface temperature changes had a novel, highly nonuniform spatial structure, with up to 16-K cooling/19-K warming. Net warming occurred in low thermal inertia regions, where rapid nighttime radiative cooling was compensated by increased longwave emission and scattering. This caused strong nightside warming, outweighing dayside cooling. The reduced surface-air temperature gradient closely coupled surface and air temperatures, even causing local dayside air warming. Results show good agreement with Mars Climate Sounder surface temperature retrievals. Comparisons with the 2001 GDS and free-running simulations show that GDS spatial structure is crucial in determining global surface temperature effects.

A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security

A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30°N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.

Scaling of greenhouse crop production in low sunlight scenarios

PURPOSE

During a global catastrophe such as a nuclear winter, in which sunlight and temperatures are reduced across every latitude, to maintain global agricultural output it is necessary to grow some crops under structures. This study designs a method for scaling up crop production in low-tech greenhouses to contribute to global food sustainability during global catastrophic conditions. Constructing low-tech greenhouses would obviate growing crops using more expensive and energy intensive artificial light.

METHODS

A nuclear winter climate model is used to determine conditions for which greenhouses would need to compensate. The greenhouse structures are designed to utilize global markets of timber, polymer film, construction aggregates, and steel nails.

RESULTS

The limiting market that determines the growth rate of the greenhouses is the rate at which polymer film and sheet are currently extruded. Conditions under low-tech greenhouses in the tropics would feasibly accommodate the production of nearly all crops. Some supplemental lighting would be required for long day crops.

CONCLUSIONS

The analysis shows that the added cost of low-tech greenhouses is about two orders of magnitude lower than the added cost of artificial light growth. The retail cost of food from these low-tech greenhouses will be ~2.30 USD/kg dry food higher than current costs; for instance, a 160% retail cost increase for rice. According to the proposed scaling method, the greenhouses will provide 36% of food requirements for everyone by the end of the first year, and feed everyone after 30 months.

Preliminary Automated Determination of Edibility of Alternative Foods: Non-Targeted Screening for Toxins in Red Maple Leaf Concentrate

Alternative food supplies could maintain humanity despite sun-blocking global catastrophic risks (GCRs) that eliminate conventional agriculture. A promising alternative food is making leaf concentrate. However, the edibility of tree leaves is largely uncertain. To overcome this challenge, this study provides the methods for obtaining rapid toxics screening of common leaf concentrates. The investigation begins with a non-targeted approach using an ultra-high-resolution hybrid ion trap orbitrap mass spectrometer with electrospray ionization (ESI) coupled to an ultra-high pressure two-dimensional liquid chromatograph system on the most common North American leaf: the red maple. Identified chemicals from this non-targeted approach are then cross-referenced with the OpenFoodTox database to identify toxic chemicals. Identified toxins are then screened for formula validation and evaluated for risk as a food. The results after screening show that red maple leaf concentrate contains at least eight toxic chemicals, which upon analysis do not present substantial risks unless consumed in abundance. This indicates that red maple leaf is still a potential alternative food. The results are discussed in the context of expanding the analysis with open science and using leaf extract from other plants that are not traditionally used as foods to offset current global hunger challenges, and move to a more sustainable food system while also preparing for GCRs.

On transient climate change at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary due to atmospheric soot injections

Climate simulations that consider injection into the atmosphere of 15,000 Tg of soot, the amount estimated to be present at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, produce what might have been one of the largest episodes of transient climate change in Earth history. The observed soot is believed to originate from global wildfires ignited after the impact of a 10-km-diameter asteroid on the Yucatán Peninsula 66 million y ago. Following injection into the atmosphere, the soot is heated by sunlight and lofted to great heights, resulting in a worldwide soot aerosol layer that lasts several years. As a result, little or no sunlight reaches the surface for over a year, such that photosynthesis is impossible and continents and oceans cool by as much as 28 °C and 11 °C, respectively. The absorption of light by the soot heats the upper atmosphere by hundreds of degrees. These high temperatures, together with a massive injection of water, which is a source of odd-hydrogen radicals, destroy the stratospheric ozone layer, such that Earth's surface receives high doses of UV radiation for about a year once the soot clears, five years after the impact. Temperatures remain above freezing in the oceans, coastal areas, and parts of the Tropics, but photosynthesis is severely inhibited for the first 1 y to 2 y, and freezing temperatures persist at middle latitudes for 3 y to 4 y. Refugia from these effects would have been very limited. The transient climate perturbation ends abruptly as the stratosphere cools and becomes supersaturated, causing rapid dehydration that removes all remaining soot via wet deposition.

Docs and Nukes--Still a Live Issue

Physicians have played a key role in warning governments and the public about the danger of nuclear war and the need to abolish nuclear weapons. That role is still needed: existing nuclear warheads pose an existential threat to humanity.

Rapid short-term cooling following the Chicxulub impact at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary

The mass extinction at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, ∼ 66 Ma, is thought to be caused by the impact of an asteroid at Chicxulub, present-day Mexico. Although the precise mechanisms that led to this mass extinction remain enigmatic, most postulated scenarios involve a short-lived global cooling, a so-called "impact winter" phase. Here we document a major decline in sea surface temperature during the first months to decades following the impact event, using TEX86 paleothermometry of sediments from the Brazos River section, Texas. We interpret this cold spell to reflect, to our knowledge, the first direct evidence for the effects of the formation of dust and aerosols by the impact and their injection in the stratosphere, blocking incoming solar radiation. This impact winter was likely a major driver of mass extinction because of the resulting global decimation of marine and continental photosynthesis.