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von der Gathen P, Kivi R, Wohltmann I, Salawitch RJ, Rex M. Reply to: No evidence of worsening Arctic springtime ozone losses over the 21st century. Nat Commun 2023; 14:1609. [PMID: 36964181 PMCID: PMC10039039 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37135-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2022] [Accepted: 03/03/2023] [Indexed: 03/26/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Peter von der Gathen
- Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany.
| | - Rigel Kivi
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Space and Earth Observation Centre, Sodankylä, Finland
| | - Ingo Wohltmann
- Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Ross J Salawitch
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, and Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Markus Rex
- Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
- Universität Potsdam, Institut für Physik und Astronomie, Potsdam, Germany
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von der Gathen P, Kivi R, Wohltmann I, Salawitch RJ, Rex M. Climate change favours large seasonal loss of Arctic ozone. Nat Commun 2021; 12:3886. [PMID: 34162857 PMCID: PMC8222337 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24089-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2020] [Accepted: 05/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Chemical loss of Arctic ozone due to anthropogenic halogens is driven by temperature, with more loss occurring during cold winters favourable for formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). We show that a positive, statistically significant rise in the local maxima of PSC formation potential (PFPLM) for cold winters is apparent in meteorological data collected over the past half century. Output from numerous General Circulation Models (GCMs) also exhibits positive trends in PFPLM over 1950 to 2100, with highest values occurring at end of century, for simulations driven by a large rise in the radiative forcing of climate from greenhouse gases (GHGs). We combine projections of stratospheric halogen loading and humidity with GCM-based forecasts of temperature to suggest that conditions favourable for large, seasonal loss of Arctic column O3 could persist or even worsen until the end of this century, if future abundances of GHGs continue to steeply rise.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter von der Gathen
- Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany.
| | - Rigel Kivi
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Space and Earth Observation Centre, Sodankylä, Finland
| | - Ingo Wohltmann
- Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Ross J Salawitch
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, and Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Markus Rex
- Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
- Universität Potsdam, Institut für Physik und Astronomie, Potsdam, Germany
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The Diurnal Variation in Stratospheric Ozone from MACC Reanalysis, ERA-Interim, WACCM, and Earth Observation Data: Characteristics and Intercomparison. ATMOSPHERE 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos12050625] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
In this study, we compare the diurnal variation in stratospheric ozone of the MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) reanalysis, ECMWF Reanalysis Interim (ERA-Interim), and the free-running WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model). The diurnal variation of stratospheric ozone results from photochemical and dynamical processes depending on altitude, latitude, and season. MACC reanalysis and WACCM use similar chemistry modules and calculate a similar diurnal cycle in ozone when it is caused by a photochemical variation. The results of the two model systems are confirmed by observations of the Superconducting Submillimeter-Wave Limb-Emission Sounder (SMILES) experiment and three selected sites of the Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii (tropics), Bern, Switzerland (midlatitudes), and Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard (high latitudes). On the other hand, the ozone product of ERA-Interim shows considerably less diurnal variation due to photochemical variations. The global maxima of diurnal variation occur at high latitudes in summer, e.g., near the Arctic NDACC site at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard. The local OZORAM radiometer observes this effect in good agreement with MACC reanalysis and WACCM. The sensed diurnal variation at Ny-Ålesund is up to 8% (0.4 ppmv) due to photochemical variations in summer and negligible during the dynamically dominated winter. However, when dynamics play a major role for the diurnal ozone variation as in the lower stratosphere (100–20 hPa), the reanalysis models ERA-Interim and MACC which assimilate data from radiosondes and satellites outperform the free-running WACCM. Such a domain is the Antarctic polar winter where a surprising novel feature of diurnal variation is indicated by MACC reanalysis and ERA-Interim at the edge of the polar vortex. This effect accounts for up to 8% (0.4 ppmv) in both model systems. In summary, MACC reanalysis provides a global description of the diurnal variation of stratospheric ozone caused by dynamics and photochemical variations. This is of high interest for ozone trend analysis and other research which is based on merged satellite data or measurements at different local time.
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Garcia RR, Kinnison DE, Marsh DR. “World avoided” simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2012jd018430] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Terao Y, Sugita T, Sasano Y. Ozone loss rates in the Arctic winter stratosphere during 1994-2000 derived from POAM II/III and ILAS observations: Implications for relationships among ozone loss, PSC occurrence, and temperature. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jd016789] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Austin J, Struthers H, Scinocca J, Plummer DA, Akiyoshi H, Baumgaertner AJG, Bekki S, Bodeker GE, Braesicke P, Brühl C, Butchart N, Chipperfield MP, Cugnet D, Dameris M, Dhomse S, Frith S, Garny H, Gettelman A, Hardiman SC, Jöckel P, Kinnison D, Kubin A, Lamarque JF, Langematz U, Mancini E, Marchand M, Michou M, Morgenstern O, Nakamura T, Nielsen JE, Pitari G, Pyle J, Rozanov E, Shepherd TG, Shibata K, Smale D, Teyssèdre H, Yamashita Y. Chemistry-climate model simulations of spring Antarctic ozone. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2009jd013577] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Tilmes S, Garcia RR, Kinnison DE, Gettelman A, Rasch PJ. Impact of geoengineered aerosols on the troposphere and stratosphere. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2009. [DOI: 10.1029/2008jd011420] [Citation(s) in RCA: 126] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Khosrawi F, Müller R, Proffitt MH, Urban J, Murtagh D, Ruhnke R, Grooß JU, Nakajima H. Seasonal cycle of averages of nitrous oxide and ozone in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere polar, midlatitude, and tropical regions derived from ILAS/ILAS-II and Odin/SMR observations. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2008. [DOI: 10.1029/2007jd009556] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Tilmes S, Muller R, Salawitch R. The Sensitivity of Polar Ozone Depletion to Proposed Geoengineering Schemes. Science 2008; 320:1201-4. [DOI: 10.1126/science.1153966] [Citation(s) in RCA: 190] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
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