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Shen Z, Ming Y, Held IM. Using the fast impact of anthropogenic aerosols on regional land temperature to constrain aerosol forcing. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2020; 6:eabb5297. [PMID: 32821838 PMCID: PMC7406383 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abb5297] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2020] [Accepted: 06/24/2020] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Anthropogenic aerosols have been postulated to have a cooling effect on climate, but its magnitude remains uncertain. Using atmospheric general circulation model simulations, we separate the land temperature response into a fast response to radiative forcings and a slow response to changing oceanic conditions and find that the former accounts for about one fifth of the observed warming of the Northern Hemisphere land during summer and autumn since the 1960s. While small, this fast response can be constrained by observations. Spatially varying aerosol effects can be detected on the regional scale, specifically warming over Europe and cooling over Asia. These results provide empirical evidence for the important role of aerosols in setting regional land temperature trends and point to an emergent constraint that suggests strong global aerosol forcing and high transient climate response.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhaoyi Shen
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA
| | - Yi Ming
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA
| | - Isaac M. Held
- Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA
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Kenny GP, Flouris AD, Yagouti A, Notley SR. Towards establishing evidence-based guidelines on maximum indoor temperatures during hot weather in temperate continental climates. Temperature (Austin) 2018; 6:11-36. [PMID: 30906809 PMCID: PMC6422495 DOI: 10.1080/23328940.2018.1456257] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2017] [Accepted: 03/15/2018] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Rising environmental temperatures represent a major threat to human health. The activation of heat advisories using evidence-based thresholds for high-risk outdoor ambient temperatures have been shown to be an effective strategy to save lives during hot weather. However, although the relationship between weather and human health has been widely defined by outdoor temperature, corresponding increases in indoor temperature during heat events can also be harmful to health especially in vulnerable populations. In this review, we discuss our current understanding of the relationship between outdoor temperature and human health and examine how human health can also be adversely influenced by high indoor temperatures during heat events. Our assessment of the existing literature revealed a high degree of variability in what can be considered an acceptable indoor temperature because there are differences in how different groups of people may respond physiologically and behaviorally to the same living environment. Finally, we demonstrate that both non-physiological (e.g., geographical location, urban density, building design) and physiological (e.g., sex, age, fitness, state of health) factors must be considered when defining an indoor temperature threshold for preserving human health in a warming global climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Glen P. Kenny
- Human and Environmental Physiology Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Andreas D. Flouris
- FAME Laboratory, Department of Exercise Science, University of Thessaly, Trikala, Greece
| | | | - Sean R. Notley
- Human and Environmental Physiology Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
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Heaviside C, Vardoulakis S, Cai XM. Attribution of mortality to the urban heat island during heatwaves in the West Midlands, UK. Environ Health 2016; 15 Suppl 1:27. [PMID: 26961286 PMCID: PMC4895726 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-016-0100-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 83] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect describes the phenomenon whereby cities are generally warmer than surrounding rural areas. Traditionally, temperature monitoring sites are placed outside of city centres, which means that point measurements do not always reflect the true air temperature of urban centres, and estimates of health impacts based on such data may under-estimate the impact of heat on public health. Climate change is likely to exacerbate heatwaves in future, but because climate projections do not usually include the UHI, health impacts may be further underestimated. These factors motivate a two-dimensional analysis of population weighted temperature across an urban area, for heat related health impact assessments, since populations are typically densest in urban centres, where ambient temperatures are highest and the UHI is most pronounced. We investigate the sensitivity of health impact estimates to the use of population weighting and the inclusion of urban temperatures in exposure data. METHODS We quantify the attribution of the UHI to heat related mortality in the West Midlands during the heatwave of August 2003 by comparing health impacts based on two modelled temperature simulations. The first simulation is based on detailed urban land use information and captures the extent of the UHI, whereas in the second simulation, urban land surfaces have been replaced by rural types. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The results suggest that the UHI contributed around 50 % of the total heat-related mortality during the 2003 heatwave in the West Midlands. We also find that taking a geographical, rather than population-weighted, mean of temperature across the regions under-estimates the population exposure to temperatures by around 1 °C, roughly equivalent to a 20 % underestimation in mortality. We compare the mortality contribution of the UHI to impacts expected from a range of projected temperatures based on the UKCP09 Climate Projections. For a medium emissions scenario, a typical heatwave in 2080 could be responsible for an increase in mortality of around 3 times the rate in 2003 (278 vs. 90 deaths) when including changes in population, population weighting and the UHI effect in the West Midlands, and assuming no change in population adaptation to heat in future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Clare Heaviside
- Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Oxon, UK.
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
| | - Sotiris Vardoulakis
- Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Oxon, UK.
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
| | - Xiao-Ming Cai
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
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Vardoulakis S, Dimitroulopoulou C, Thornes J, Lai KM, Taylor J, Myers I, Heaviside C, Mavrogianni A, Shrubsole C, Chalabi Z, Davies M, Wilkinson P. Impact of climate change on the domestic indoor environment and associated health risks in the UK. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2015; 85:299-313. [PMID: 26453820 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2015.09.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 85] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2015] [Revised: 07/30/2015] [Accepted: 09/07/2015] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
There is growing evidence that projected climate change has the potential to significantly affect public health. In the UK, much of this impact is likely to arise by amplifying existing risks related to heat exposure, flooding, and chemical and biological contamination in buildings. Identifying the health effects of climate change on the indoor environment, and risks and opportunities related to climate change adaptation and mitigation, can help protect public health. We explored a range of health risks in the domestic indoor environment related to climate change, as well as the potential health benefits and unintended harmful effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies in the UK housing sector. We reviewed relevant scientific literature, focusing on housing-related health effects in the UK likely to arise through either direct or indirect mechanisms of climate change or mitigation and adaptation measures in the built environment. We considered the following categories of effect: (i) indoor temperatures, (ii) indoor air quality, (iii) indoor allergens and infections, and (iv) flood damage and water contamination. Climate change may exacerbate health risks and inequalities across these categories and in a variety of ways, if adequate adaptation measures are not taken. Certain changes to the indoor environment can affect indoor air quality or promote the growth and propagation of pathogenic organisms. Measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have the potential for ancillary public health benefits including reductions in health burdens related heat and cold, indoor exposure to air pollution derived from outdoor sources, and mould growth. However, increasing airtightness of dwellings in pursuit of energy efficiency could also have negative effects by increasing concentrations of pollutants (such as PM2.5, CO and radon) derived from indoor or ground sources, and biological contamination. These effects can largely be ameliorated by mechanical ventilation with heat recovery (MVHR) and air filtration, where such solution is feasible and when the system is properly installed, operated and maintained. Groups at high risk of these adverse health effects include the elderly (especially those living on their own), individuals with pre-existing illnesses, people living in overcrowded accommodation, and the socioeconomically deprived. A better understanding of how current and emerging building infrastructure design, construction, and materials may affect health in the context of climate change and mitigation and adaptation measures is needed in the UK and other high income countries. Long-term, energy efficient building design interventions, ensuring adequate ventilation, need to be promoted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sotiris Vardoulakis
- Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SH, UK; Division of Environmental Health and Risk Management, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.
| | - Chrysanthi Dimitroulopoulou
- Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK.
| | - John Thornes
- Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; Division of Environmental Health and Risk Management, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.
| | - Ka-Man Lai
- Department of Biology, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong, China.
| | - Jonathon Taylor
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, The Bartlett School of Environment Energy and Resources, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WCIH ONN, UK.
| | - Isabella Myers
- Public Health England Toxicology Unit, Department of Medicine, Imperial College London, London W12 0NN, UK.
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SH, UK; Division of Environmental Health and Risk Management, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.
| | - Anna Mavrogianni
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, The Bartlett School of Environment Energy and Resources, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WCIH ONN, UK.
| | - Clive Shrubsole
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, The Bartlett School of Environment Energy and Resources, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WCIH ONN, UK.
| | - Zaid Chalabi
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SH, UK.
| | - Michael Davies
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, The Bartlett School of Environment Energy and Resources, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WCIH ONN, UK.
| | - Paul Wilkinson
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SH, UK.
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