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Taylor J, Simpson C, Brousse O, Viitanen AK, Heaviside C. The potential of urban trees to reduce heat-related mortality in London. Environ Res Lett 2024; 19:054004. [PMID: 38616845 PMCID: PMC11009716 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad3a7e] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2024] [Revised: 03/18/2024] [Accepted: 04/04/2024] [Indexed: 04/16/2024]
Abstract
Increasing temperatures and more frequent heatwave events pose threats to population health, particularly in urban environments due to the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Greening, in particular planting trees, is widely discussed as a means of reducing heat exposure and associated mortality in cities. This study aims to use data from personal weather stations (PWS) across the Greater London Authority to understand how urban temperatures vary according to tree canopy coverage and estimate the heat-health impacts of London's urban trees. Data from Netatmo PWS from 2015-2022 were cleaned, combined with official Met Office temperatures, and spatially linked to tree canopy coverage and built environment data. A generalized additive model was used to predict daily average urban temperatures under different tree canopy coverage scenarios for historical and projected future summers, and subsequent health impacts estimated. Results show areas of London with higher canopy coverage have lower urban temperatures, with average maximum daytime temperatures 0.8 °C and minimum temperatures 2.0 °C lower in the top decile versus bottom decile canopy coverage during the 2022 heatwaves. We estimate that London's urban forest helped avoid 153 heat attributable deaths from 2015-2022 (including 16 excess deaths during the 2022 heatwaves), representing around 16% of UHI-related mortality. Increasing tree coverage 10% in-line with the London strategy would have reduced UHI-related mortality by a further 10%, while a maximal tree coverage would have reduced it 55%. By 2061-2080, under RCP8.5, we estimate that London's current tree planting strategy can help avoid an additional 23 heat-attributable deaths a year, with maximal coverage increasing this to 131. Substantial benefits would also be seen for carbon storage and sequestration. Results of this study support increasing urban tree coverage as part of a wider public health effort to mitigate high urban temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathon Taylor
- Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
| | - Charles Simpson
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, UCL, London, United Kingdom
| | - Oscar Brousse
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, UCL, London, United Kingdom
| | | | - Clare Heaviside
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, UCL, London, United Kingdom
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2
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Grellier J, White MP, de Bell S, Brousse O, Elliott LR, Fleming LE, Heaviside C, Simpson C, Taylor T, Wheeler BW, Lovell R. Valuing the health benefits of nature-based recreational physical activity in England. Environ Int 2024; 187:108667. [PMID: 38642505 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108667] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2023] [Revised: 03/15/2024] [Accepted: 04/15/2024] [Indexed: 04/22/2024]
Abstract
Physical activity (PA) reduces the risk of several non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Natural environments support recreational PA. Using data including a representative cross-sectional survey of the English population, we estimated the annual value of nature-based PA conducted in England in 2019 in terms of avoided healthcare and societal costs of disease. Population-representative data from the Monitor of Engagement with the Natural Environment (MENE) survey (n = 47,580; representing 44,386,756) were used to estimate the weekly volume of nature-based recreational PA by adults in England in 2019. We used epidemiological dose-response data to calculate incident cases of six NCDs (ischaemic heart disease (IHD), ischaemic stroke (IS), type 2 diabetes (T2D), colon cancer (CC), breast cancer (BC) and major depressive disorder (MDD)) prevented through nature-based PA, and estimated associated savings using published costs of healthcare, informal care and productivity losses. We investigated additional savings resulting from hypothetical increases in: (a) visitor PA and (b) visitor numbers. In 2019, 22million adults > 16 years of age in England visited natural environments at least weekly. At reported volumes of nature-based PA, we estimated that 550 cases of IHD, 168 cases of IS, 1,410 cases of T2D, 41 cases of CC, 37 cases of BC and 10,552 cases of MDD were prevented, creating annual savings of £108.7million (95 % uncertainty interval: £70.3million; £150.3million). Nature-based recreational PA in England results in reduced burden of disease and considerable annual savings through prevention of priority NCDs. Strategies that increase nature-based PA could lead to further reductions in the societal burden of NCDs.
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Affiliation(s)
- James Grellier
- European Centre for Environment & Human Health, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK; Institute of Psychology, Jagiellonian University, Krakow, Poland.
| | - Mathew P White
- European Centre for Environment & Human Health, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK; Vienna Cognitive Science Hub, University of Vienna, Kolingasse 14-16, 1090 Vienna, Austria
| | - Siân de Bell
- European Centre for Environment & Human Health, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK; Exeter HS&DR Evidence Synthesis Centre, University of Exeter, Exeter, Devon, UK
| | - Oscar Brousse
- The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, Faculty of the Built Environment, University College London, London, UK
| | - Lewis R Elliott
- European Centre for Environment & Human Health, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK
| | - Lora E Fleming
- European Centre for Environment & Human Health, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK
| | - Clare Heaviside
- The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, Faculty of the Built Environment, University College London, London, UK
| | - Charles Simpson
- The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, Faculty of the Built Environment, University College London, London, UK
| | - Tim Taylor
- European Centre for Environment & Human Health, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK
| | - Benedict W Wheeler
- European Centre for Environment & Human Health, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK
| | - Rebecca Lovell
- European Centre for Environment & Human Health, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK
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3
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Lo Iacono G, Cook AJC, Derks G, Fleming LE, French N, Gillingham EL, Gonzalez Villeta LC, Heaviside C, La Ragione RM, Leonardi G, Sarran CE, Vardoulakis S, Senyah F, van Vliet AHM, Nichols G. A mathematical, classical stratification modeling approach to disentangling the impact of weather on infectious diseases: A case study using spatio-temporally disaggregated Campylobacter surveillance data for England and Wales. PLoS Comput Biol 2024; 20:e1011714. [PMID: 38236828 PMCID: PMC10796013 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011714] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2023] [Accepted: 11/27/2023] [Indexed: 01/22/2024] Open
Abstract
Disentangling the impact of the weather on transmission of infectious diseases is crucial for health protection, preparedness and prevention. Because weather factors are co-incidental and partly correlated, we have used geography to separate out the impact of individual weather parameters on other seasonal variables using campylobacteriosis as a case study. Campylobacter infections are found worldwide and are the most common bacterial food-borne disease in developed countries, where they exhibit consistent but country specific seasonality. We developed a novel conditional incidence method, based on classical stratification, exploiting the long term, high-resolution, linkage of approximately one-million campylobacteriosis cases over 20 years in England and Wales with local meteorological datasets from diagnostic laboratory locations. The predicted incidence of campylobacteriosis increased by 1 case per million people for every 5° (Celsius) increase in temperature within the range of 8°-15°. Limited association was observed outside that range. There were strong associations with day-length. Cases tended to increase with relative humidity in the region of 75-80%, while the associations with rainfall and wind-speed were weaker. The approach is able to examine multiple factors and model how complex trends arise, e.g. the consistent steep increase in campylobacteriosis in England and Wales in May-June and its spatial variability. This transparent and straightforward approach leads to accurate predictions without relying on regression models and/or postulating specific parameterisations. A key output of the analysis is a thoroughly phenomenological description of the incidence of the disease conditional on specific local weather factors. The study can be crucially important to infer the elusive mechanism of transmission of campylobacteriosis; for instance, by simulating the conditional incidence for a postulated mechanism and compare it with the phenomenological patterns as benchmark. The findings challenge the assumption, commonly made in statistical models, that the transformed mean rate of infection for diseases like campylobacteriosis is a mere additive and combination of the environmental variables.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giovanni Lo Iacono
- Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
- Institute for Sustainability, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
- People-Centred Artificial Intelligence Institute, University of Surrey, Guilford, United Kingdom
- Centre for Mathematical and Computational Biology, University of Surrey, Guilford, United Kingdom
| | - Alasdair J. C. Cook
- Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Gianne Derks
- Centre for Mathematical and Computational Biology, University of Surrey, Guilford, United Kingdom
- Mathematical Institute, Leiden University, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Lora E. Fleming
- European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Truro, Cornwall, United Kingdom
| | - Nigel French
- New Zealand Food Safety Science & Research Centre, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
| | | | - Laura C. Gonzalez Villeta
- Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Roberto M. La Ragione
- Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
- School of Biosciences, University of Surrey, Guilford, United Kingdom
| | - Giovanni Leonardi
- UK Health Security Agency, Chilton, United Kingdom
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | | | - Sotiris Vardoulakis
- Healthy Environments And Lives (HEAL) National Research Network, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - Francis Senyah
- UK Health Security Agency, Porton Down, United Kingdom
- Médicines Sans Frontièrs, London, United Kingdom
| | - Arnoud H. M. van Vliet
- Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Gordon Nichols
- Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
- European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Truro, Cornwall, United Kingdom
- UK Health Security Agency, Chilton, United Kingdom
- University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
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4
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Macintyre HL, Mitsakou C, Vieno M, Heal MR, Heaviside C, Exley KS. Future impacts of O 3 on respiratory hospital admission in the UK from current emissions policies. Environ Int 2023; 178:108046. [PMID: 37393725 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2023.108046] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2023] [Revised: 06/07/2023] [Accepted: 06/14/2023] [Indexed: 07/04/2023]
Abstract
Exposure to ambient ozone (O3) O3 is associated with impacts on human health. O3 is a secondary pollutant whose concentrations are determined inter alia by emissions of precursors such as oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and thus future health burdens depend on policies relating to climate and air quality. While emission controls are expected to reduce levels of PM2.5 and NO2 and their associated mortality burdens, for secondary pollutants like O3 the picture is less clear. Detailed assessments are necessary to provide quantitative estimates of future impacts to support decision-makers. We simulate future O3 across the UK using a high spatial resolution atmospheric chemistry model with current UK and European policy projections for 2030, 2040 and 2050, and use UK regional population-weighting and latest recommendations on health impact assessment to quantify respiratory emergency hospital admissions associated with short-term effects of O3. We estimate 60,488 admissions in 2018, increasing by 4.2%, 4.5% and 4.6% by 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively (assuming a fixed population). Including future population growth, estimated emergency respiratory hospital admissions are 8.3%, 10.3% and 11.7% higher by 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively. Increasing O3 concentrations in future are driven by reduced nitric oxide (NO) in urban areas due to reduced emissions, with increases in O3 mainly occurring in areas with lowest O3 concentrations currently. Meteorology influences episodes of O3 on a day-to-day basis, although a sensitivity study indicates that annual totals of hospital admissions are only slightly impacted by meteorological year. While reducing emissions results in overall benefits to population health (through reduced mortality due to long-term exposure to PM2.5 and NO2), due to the complex chemistry, as NO emissions reduce there are associated local increases in O3 close to population centres that may increase harms to health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Helen L Macintyre
- UK Health Security Agency, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston B15 2TT, UK.
| | | | - Massimo Vieno
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB, UK.
| | - Mathew R Heal
- School of Chemistry, University of Edinburgh, Joseph Black Building, David Brewster Road, Edinburgh EH9 3FJ, UK.
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK.
| | - Karen S Exley
- UK Health Security Agency, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.
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5
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Simpson CH, Brousse O, Ebi KL, Heaviside C. Commonly used indices disagree about the effect of moisture on heat stress. NPJ Clim Atmos Sci 2023; 6:s41612-023-00408-0. [PMID: 38204467 PMCID: PMC7615504 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00408-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2023] [Accepted: 06/25/2023] [Indexed: 01/12/2024]
Abstract
Irrigation and urban greening can mitigate extreme temperatures and reduce adverse health impacts from heat. However, some recent studies suggest these interventions could actually exacerbate heat stress by increasing humidity. These studies use different heat stress indices (HSIs), hindering intercomparisons of the relative roles of temperature and humidity. Our method uses calculus of variations to compare the sensitivity of HSIs to temperature and humidity, independent of HSI units. We explain the properties of different HSIs and identify conditions under which they disagree. We highlight recent studies where the use of different HSIs could have led to opposite conclusions. Our findings have significant implications for the evaluation of irrigation and urban greening as adaptive responses to overheating and climate adaptation measures in general. We urge researchers to be critical in their choice of HSIs, especially in relation to health outcomes; our method provides a useful tool for making informed comparisons.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charles H. Simpson
- Institute of Environmental Design and Engineering, Bartlett School of Environment Energy and Resources, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, UK
| | - Oscar Brousse
- Institute of Environmental Design and Engineering, Bartlett School of Environment Energy and Resources, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, UK
| | - Kristie L. Ebi
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Institute of Environmental Design and Engineering, Bartlett School of Environment Energy and Resources, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, UK
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6
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Macintyre HL, Mitsakou C, Vieno M, Heal MR, Heaviside C, Exley KS. Impacts of emissions policies on future UK mortality burdens associated with air pollution. Environ Int 2023; 174:107862. [PMID: 36963156 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2023.107862] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2023] [Revised: 02/28/2023] [Accepted: 03/01/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Air pollution is the greatest environmental risk to public health. Future air pollution concentrations are primarily determined by precursor emissions, which are driven by environmental policies relating to climate and air pollution. Detailed health impact assessments (HIA) are necessary to provide quantitative estimates of the impacts of future air pollution to support decision-makers developing environmental policy and targets. In this study we use high spatial resolution atmospheric chemistry modelling to simulate future air pollution concentrations across the UK for 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on current UK and European policy projections. We combine UK regional population-weighted concentrations with the latest epidemiological relationships to quantify mortality associated with changes in PM2.5 and NO2 air pollution. Our HIA suggests that by 2050, population-weighted exposure to PM2.5 will reduce by 28% to 36%, and for NO2 by 35% to 49%, depending on region. The HIA shows that for present day (2018), annual mortality attributable to the effects of long-term exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 is in the range 26,287 - 42,442, and that mortality burdens in future will be substantially reduced, being lower by 31%, 35%, and 37% in 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively (relative to 2018) assuming no population changes. Including population projections (increases in all regions for 30+ years age group) slightly offsets these health benefits, resulting in reductions of 25%, 27%, and 26% in mortality burdens for 2030, 2040, 2050 respectively. Significant reductions in future mortality burdens are estimated and, importantly for public health, the majority of benefits are achieved early on in the future timeline simulated, though further efforts are likely needed to reduce impacts of air pollution to health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Helen L Macintyre
- UK Health Security Agency, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston B15 2TT, UK.
| | | | - Massimo Vieno
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB, UK.
| | - Mathew R Heal
- School of Chemistry, University of Edinburgh, Joseph Black Building, David Brewster Road, Edinburgh EH9 3FJ, UK.
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK.
| | - Karen S Exley
- UK Health Security Agency, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.
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7
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Cole R, Hajat S, Murage P, Heaviside C, Macintyre H, Davies M, Wilkinson P. The contribution of demographic changes to future heat-related health burdens under climate change scenarios. Environ Int 2023; 173:107836. [PMID: 36822002 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2023.107836] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2022] [Revised: 01/14/2023] [Accepted: 02/16/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change will have a detrimental impact on global health, including the direct impact of higher ambient temperatures. Existing projections of heat-related health outcomes in a changing climate often consider increasing ambient temperatures alone. Population growth and structure has been identified as a key source of uncertainty in future projections. Age acts as a modifier of heat risk, with heat-risk generally increasing in older age-groups. In many countries the population is ageing as lower birth rates and increasing life expectancy alter the population structure. Preparing for an older population, in particular in the context of a warmer climate should therefore be a priority in public health research and policy. We assess the level of inclusion of population growth and demographic changes in research projecting exposure to heat and heat-related health outcomes. To assess the level of inclusion of population changes in the literature, keyword searches of two databases were implemented, followed by reference and citation scans to identify any missed papers. Relevant papers, those including a projection of the heat health burden under climate change, were then checked for inclusion of population scenarios. Where sensitivity to population change was studied the impact of this on projections was extracted. Our analysis suggests that projecting the heat health burden is a growing area of research, however, some areas remain understudied including Africa and the Middle East and morbidity is rarely explored with most studies focusing on mortality. Of the studies pairing projections of population and climate, specifically SSPs and RCPs, many used pairing considered to be unfeasible. We find that not including any projected changes in population or demographics leads to underestimation of health burdens of on average 64 %. Inclusion of population changes increased the heat health burden across all but two studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca Cole
- Public and Environmental Health Research Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
| | - Shakoor Hajat
- Public and Environmental Health Research Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Peninah Murage
- Public and Environmental Health Research Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Clare Heaviside
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, The Bartlett Faculty of Environment, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Helen Macintyre
- Climate Change and Health Unit, UK Health Security Agency, Chilton, United Kingdom; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, United Kingdom
| | - Michael Davies
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, The Bartlett Faculty of Environment, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Paul Wilkinson
- Public and Environmental Health Research Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
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8
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Brousse O, Simpson C, Walker N, Fenner D, Meier F, Taylor J, Heaviside C. Evidence of horizontal urban heat advection in London using six years of data from a citizen weather station network. Environ Res Lett 2022; 17:044041. [PMID: 37600746 PMCID: PMC10437006 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac5c0f] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2021] [Revised: 02/25/2022] [Accepted: 03/09/2022] [Indexed: 08/22/2023]
Abstract
Recent advances in citizen weather station (CWS) networks, with data accessible via crowd-sourcing, provide relevant climatic information to urban scientists and decision makers. In particular, CWS can provide long-term measurements of urban heat and valuable information on spatio-temporal heterogeneity related to horizontal heat advection. In this study, we make the first compilation of a quasi-climatologic dataset covering six years (2015-2020) of hourly near-surface air temperature measurements obtained via 1560 suitable CWS in a domain covering south-east England and Greater London. We investigated the spatio-temporal distribution of urban heat and the influences of local environments on climate, captured by CWS through the scope of Local Climate Zones (LCZ)-a land-use land-cover classification specifically designed for urban climate studies. We further calculate, for the first time, the amount of advected heat captured by CWS located in Greater London and the wider south east England region. We find that London is on average warmer by about 1.0 ∘C-1.5 ∘C than the rest of south-east England. Characteristics of the southern coastal climate are also captured in the analysis. We find that on average, urban heat advection (UHA) contributes to 0.22 ± 0.96 ∘C of the total urban heat in Greater London. Certain areas, mostly in the centre of London are deprived of urban heat through advection since heat is transferred more to downwind suburban areas. UHA can positively contribute to urban heat by up to 1.57 ∘C, on average and negatively by down to -1.21 ∘C. Our results also show an important degree of inter- and intra-LCZ variability in UHA, calling for more research in the future. Nevertheless, we already find that UHA can impact green areas and reduce their cooling benefit. Such outcomes show the added value of CWS when considering future urban design.
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Affiliation(s)
- O Brousse
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, The Bartlett Faculty of Environment, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - C Simpson
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, The Bartlett Faculty of Environment, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - N Walker
- Bioengineering Sciences Research Group, Department of Mechanical Engineering, School of Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
| | - D Fenner
- Chair of Environmental Meteorology, Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Germany
| | - F Meier
- Chair of Climatology, Institute of Ecology, Technische Universität Berlin, Germany
| | - J Taylor
- Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
| | - C Heaviside
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, The Bartlett Faculty of Environment, University College London, London, United Kingdom
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9
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Romanello M, McGushin A, Di Napoli C, Drummond P, Hughes N, Jamart L, Kennard H, Lampard P, Solano Rodriguez B, Arnell N, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Belesova K, Cai W, Campbell-Lendrum D, Capstick S, Chambers J, Chu L, Ciampi L, Dalin C, Dasandi N, Dasgupta S, Davies M, Dominguez-Salas P, Dubrow R, Ebi KL, Eckelman M, Ekins P, Escobar LE, Georgeson L, Grace D, Graham H, Gunther SH, Hartinger S, He K, Heaviside C, Hess J, Hsu SC, Jankin S, Jimenez MP, Kelman I, Kiesewetter G, Kinney PL, Kjellstrom T, Kniveton D, Lee JKW, Lemke B, Liu Y, Liu Z, Lott M, Lowe R, Martinez-Urtaza J, Maslin M, McAllister L, McMichael C, Mi Z, Milner J, Minor K, Mohajeri N, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morrissey K, Munzert S, Murray KA, Neville T, Nilsson M, Obradovich N, Sewe MO, Oreszczyn T, Otto M, Owfi F, Pearman O, Pencheon D, Rabbaniha M, Robinson E, Rocklöv J, Salas RN, Semenza JC, Sherman J, Shi L, Springmann M, Tabatabaei M, Taylor J, Trinanes J, Shumake-Guillemot J, Vu B, Wagner F, Wilkinson P, Winning M, Yglesias M, Zhang S, Gong P, Montgomery H, Costello A, Hamilton I. The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future. Lancet 2021; 398:1619-1662. [PMID: 34687662 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01787-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 410] [Impact Index Per Article: 136.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2021] [Revised: 07/20/2021] [Accepted: 07/29/2021] [Indexed: 01/19/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Marina Romanello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Alice McGushin
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Claudia Di Napoli
- School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Paul Drummond
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Nick Hughes
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Louis Jamart
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Harry Kennard
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Pete Lampard
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | | | - Nigel Arnell
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson
- Institute for Environment and Human Security, United Nations University, Bonn, Germany
| | - Kristine Belesova
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Wenjia Cai
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum
- Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Stuart Capstick
- Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations, School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK
| | - Jonathan Chambers
- Institute for Environmental Sciences, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Lingzhi Chu
- Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Luisa Ciampi
- The Walker Institute, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Carole Dalin
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Niheer Dasandi
- School of Government, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Shouro Dasgupta
- Economic analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venice, Italy
| | - Michael Davies
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Robert Dubrow
- Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Matthew Eckelman
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Paul Ekins
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Luis E Escobar
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA
| | | | - Delia Grace
- Animal and Human Health Program, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Hilary Graham
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Samuel H Gunther
- Human Potential Translational Research Programme, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University Singapore, Singapore
| | - Stella Hartinger
- School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Kehan He
- The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, UK
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Jeremy Hess
- Centre for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Shih-Che Hsu
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Slava Jankin
- Data Science Lab, Hertie School, Berlin, Germany
| | - Marcia P Jimenez
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Ilan Kelman
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Gregor Kiesewetter
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Patrick L Kinney
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Tord Kjellstrom
- Health and Environment International Trust, Nelson, New Zealand
| | | | - Jason K W Lee
- Human Potential Translational Research Programme, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University Singapore, Singapore
| | - Bruno Lemke
- School of Health, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Yang Liu
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Zhao Liu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Melissa Lott
- Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Jaime Martinez-Urtaza
- Department of Genetics and Microbiology, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Mark Maslin
- Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK
| | - Lucy McAllister
- Center for Energy Markets, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Celia McMichael
- School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Zhifu Mi
- The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, UK
| | - James Milner
- Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kelton Minor
- Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Nahid Mohajeri
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Psychosocial Health Research Institute, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Karyn Morrissey
- Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | | | - Kris A Murray
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK; MRC Unit The Gambia, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Tara Neville
- Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Maria Nilsson
- Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Nick Obradovich
- Centre for Humans and Machines, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany
| | - Maquins Odhiambo Sewe
- Section of Sustainable Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Tadj Oreszczyn
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Matthias Otto
- Department of Arts, Media & Digital Technologies, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Fereidoon Owfi
- Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran
| | - Olivia Pearman
- Cooperative Institute of Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - David Pencheon
- College of Medicine and Health, Exeter University, Exeter, UK
| | - Mahnaz Rabbaniha
- Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran
| | - Elizabeth Robinson
- School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Section of Sustainable Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Renee N Salas
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | - Jodi Sherman
- Department of Anesthesiology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Liuhua Shi
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | - Meisam Tabatabaei
- Higher Institution Centre of Excellence, Institute of Tropical Aquaculture and Fisheries, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Jonathon Taylor
- Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
| | - Joaquin Trinanes
- Department of Electronics and Computer Science, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago, Spain
| | | | - Bryan Vu
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Fabian Wagner
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Paul Wilkinson
- Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Matthew Winning
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Marisol Yglesias
- School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Shihui Zhang
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Gong
- Department of Geography, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Hugh Montgomery
- Centre for Human Health and Performance, University College London, London, UK
| | - Anthony Costello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Ian Hamilton
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK.
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Taylor J, Symonds P, Heaviside C, Chalabi Z, Davies M, Wilkinson P. Projecting the impacts of housing on temperature-related mortality in London during typical future years. Energy Build 2021; 249:None. [PMID: 34819713 PMCID: PMC8593871 DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2021.111233] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/22/2020] [Revised: 06/09/2021] [Accepted: 06/25/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Climate change means the UK will experience warmer winters and hotter summers in the future. Concurrent energy efficiency improvements to housing may modify indoor exposures to heat or cold, while population aging may increase susceptibility to temperature-related mortality. We estimate heat and cold mortality and energy consumption in London for typical (non-extreme) future climates, given projected changes in population and housing. Building physics models are used to simulate summertime and wintertime indoor temperatures and space heating energy consumption of London dwellings for 'baseline' (2005-2014) and future (2030s, 2050s) periods using data from the English Housing Survey, historical weather data, and projected future weather data with temperatures representative of 'typical' years. Linking to population projections, we calculate future heat and cold attributable mortality and energy consumption with demolition, construction, and alternative scenarios of energy efficiency retrofit. At current retrofit rates, around 168-174 annual cold-related deaths per million population would typically be avoided by the 2050s, or 261-269 deaths per million under ambitious retrofit rates. Annual heat deaths would typically increase by 1 per million per year under the current retrofit rate, and 12-13 per million under ambitious rates without population adaptation to heat. During typical future summers, an estimated 38-73% of heat-related deaths can be avoided using external shutters on windows, with their effectiveness lower during hotter weather. Despite warmer winters, ambitious retrofit rates are necessary to reduce typical annual energy consumption for heating below baseline levels, assuming no improvement in heating system efficiencies. Concerns over future overheating in energy efficient housing are valid but increases in heat attributable mortality during typical and hot (but not extreme) summers are more than offset by significant reductions in cold mortality and easily mitigated using passive measures. More ambitious retrofit rates are critical to reduce energy consumption and offer co-benefits for reducing cold-related mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathon Taylor
- Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Phil Symonds
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Clare Heaviside
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Zaid Chalabi
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Mike Davies
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Paul Wilkinson
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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11
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Goodess C, Berk S, Ratna SB, Brousse O, Davies M, Heaviside C, Moore G, Pineo H. Climate change projections for sustainable and healthy cities. Build Cities 2021; 2:812-836. [PMID: 34704037 PMCID: PMC7611885 DOI: 10.5334/bc.111] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
The ambition to develop sustainable and healthy cities requires city-specific policy and practice founded on a multidisciplinary evidence base, including projections of human-induced climate change. A cascade of climate models of increasing complexity and resolution is reviewed, which provides the basis for constructing climate projections-from global climate models with a typical horizontal resolution of a few hundred kilometres, through regional climate models at 12-50 km to convection-permitting models at 1 km resolution that permit the representation of urban induced climates. Different approaches to modelling the urban heat island (UHI) are also reviewed-focusing on how climate model outputs can be adjusted and coupled with urban canopy models to better represent UHI intensity, its impacts and variability. The latter can be due to changes induced by urbanisation or to climate change itself. City interventions such as greater use of green infrastructure also have an effect on the UHI and can help to reduce adverse health impacts such as heat stress and the mortality associated with increasing heat. Examples for the Complex Urban Systems for Sustainability and Health (CUSSH) partner cities of London, Rennes, Kisumu, Nairobi, Beijing and Ningbo illustrate how cities could potentially make use of more detailed models and projections to develop and evaluate policies and practices targeted at their specific environmental and health priorities. PRACTICE RELEVANCE Large-scale climate projections for the coming decades show robust trends in rising air temperatures, including more warm days and nights, and longer/more intense warm spells and heatwaves. This paper describes how more complex and higher resolution regional climate and urban canopy models can be combined with the aim of better understanding and quantifying how these larger scale patterns of change may be modified at the city or finer scale. These modifications may arise due to urbanisation and effects such as the UHI, as well as city interventions such as the greater use of grey and green infrastructures.There is potential danger in generalising from one city to another-under certain conditions some cities may experience an urban cool island, or little future intensification of the UHI, for example. City-specific, tailored climate projections combined with tailored health impact models contribute to an evidence base that supports built environment professionals, urban planners and policymakers to ensure designs for buildings and urban areas are fit for future climates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Clare Goodess
- Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
| | - Sarah Berk
- Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK Satyaban Bishoyi Ratna
| | - Satyaban Bishoyi Ratna
- Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
| | - Oscar Brousse
- The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, Faculty of the Built Environment, University College London, London, UK
| | - Mike Davies
- The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, Faculty of the Built Environment, University College London, London, UK
| | - Clare Heaviside
- The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, Faculty of the Built Environment, University College London, London, UK
| | - Gemma Moore
- The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, Faculty of the Built Environment, University College London, London, UK
| | - Helen Pineo
- The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, Faculty of the Built Environment, University College London, London, UK
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12
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Mohajeri N, Walch A, Gudmundsson A, Heaviside C, Askari S, Wilkinson P, Davies M. Covid-19 mobility restrictions: impacts on urban air quality and health. Build Cities 2021; 2:759-778. [PMID: 34704039 PMCID: PMC7611887 DOI: 10.5334/bc.124] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED In 2020, Covid-19-related mobility restrictions resulted in the most extensive human-made air-quality changes ever recorded. The changes in mobility are quantified in terms of outdoor air pollution (concentrations of PM2.5 and NO2) and the associated health impacts in four UK cities (Greater London, Cardiff, Edinburgh and Belfast). After applying a weather-corrected machine learning (ML) technique, all four cities show NO2 and PM2.5 concentration anomalies in 2020 when compared with the ML-predicted values for that year. The NO2 anomalies are -21% for Greater London, -19% for Cardiff, -27% for Belfast and -41% for Edinburgh. The PM2.5 anomalies are 7% for Greater London, -1% for Cardiff, -15% for Edinburgh, -14% for Belfast. All the negative anomalies, which indicate air pollution at a lower level than expected from the weather conditions, are attributable to the mobility restrictions imposed by the Covid-19 lockdowns. Spearman rank-order correlations show a significant correlation between the lowering of NO2 levels and reduction in public transport (p < 0.05) and driving (p < 0.05), which is associated with a decline in NO2-attributable mortality. These positive effects of the mobility restrictions on public health can be used to evaluate policies for improved outdoor air quality. POLICY RELEVANCE Finding the means to curb air pollution is very important for public health. Empirical evidence at a city scale reveals significant correlations between the reduction in vehicular transport and in ambient NO2 concentrations. The results provide justification for city-level initiatives to reduce vehicular traffic. Well-designed and effective policy interventions (e.g. the promotion of walking and cycling, remote working, local availability of services) can substantially reduce long-term air pollution and have positive health impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nahid Mohajeri
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, Faculty of the Built Environment, University College London, London, UK
| | - Alina Walch
- Solar Energy and Building Physics Laboratory, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Agust Gudmundsson
- Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway College, University of London, Egham, UK
| | - Clare Heaviside
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, Faculty of the Built Environment, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Paul Wilkinson
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health & Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Michael Davies
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, Faculty of the Built Environment, University College London, London, UK
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13
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Macintyre HL, Heaviside C, Cai X, Phalkey R. Comparing temperature-related mortality impacts of cool roofs in winter and summer in a highly urbanized European region for present and future climate. Environ Int 2021; 154:106606. [PMID: 33971480 PMCID: PMC8214226 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2021.106606] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Human health can be negatively impacted by hot or cold weather, which often exacerbates respiratory or cardiovascular conditions and increases the risk of mortality. Urban populations are at particular increased risk of effects from heat due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect (higher urban temperatures compared with rural ones). This has led to extensive investigation of the summertime UHI, its impacts on health, and also the consideration of interventions such as reflective 'cool' roofs to help reduce summertime overheating effects. However, interventions aimed at limiting summer heat are rarely evaluated for their effects in wintertime, and thus their overall annual net impact on temperature-related health effects are poorly understood. In this study we use a regional weather model to simulate the winter 2009/10 period for an urbanized region of the UK (Birmingham and the West Midlands), and use a health impact assessment to estimate the impact of reflective 'cool' roofs (an intervention usually aimed at reducing the UHI in summer) on cold-related mortality in winter. Cool roofs have been shown to be effective at reducing maximum temperatures during summertime. In contrast to the summer, we find that cool roofs have a minimal effect on ambient air temperatures in winter. Although the UHI in summertime can increase heat-related mortality, the wintertime UHI can have benefits to health, through avoided cold-related mortality. Our results highlight the potential annual net health benefits of implementing cool roofs to reduce temperature-related mortality in summer, without reducing the protective UHI effect in winter. Further, we suggest that benefits of cool roofs may increase in future, with a doubling of the number of heat-related deaths avoided by the 2080s (RCP8.5) compared to summer 2006, and with insignificant changes in the impact of cool-roofs on cold-related mortality. These results further support reflective 'cool' roof implementation strategies as effective interventions to protect health, both today and in future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Helen L Macintyre
- Climate Change and Health Group, Centre for Radiation Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, Central House, 14 Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK
| | - Xiaoming Cai
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
| | - Revati Phalkey
- Climate Change and Health Group, Centre for Radiation Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; Division of Epidemiology and Public Health, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham City Hospital, Hucknall Road, NG51PB Nottingham, UK; Heidelberg Institute for Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 130.3 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
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14
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Macintyre HL, Heaviside C, Cai X, Phalkey R. The winter urban heat island: Impacts on cold-related mortality in a highly urbanized European region for present and future climate. Environ Int 2021; 154:106530. [PMID: 33895439 PMCID: PMC8543073 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2021.106530] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2021] [Revised: 03/07/2021] [Accepted: 03/14/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Exposure to heat has a range of potential negative impacts on human health; hot weather may exacerbate cardiovascular and respiratory illness or lead to heat stroke and death. Urban populations are at increased risk due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect (higher urban temperatures compared with rural ones). This has led to extensive investigation of the summertime UHI and its effects, whereas far less research focuses on the wintertime UHI. Exposure to low temperature also leads to a range of illnesses, and in fact, in the UK, annual cold-related mortality outweighs heat-related mortality. It is not clearly understood to what extent the wintertime UHI may protect against cold related mortality. In this study we quantify the UHI intensity in wintertime for a heavily urbanized UK region (West Midlands, including Birmingham) using a regional weather model, and for the first time, use a health impact assessment (HIA) to estimate the associated impact on cold-related mortality. We show that the population-weighted mean winter UHI intensity was +2.3 °C in Birmingham city center, and comparable with that of summer. Our results suggest a potential protective effect of the wintertime UHI, equivalent to 266 cold-related deaths avoided (~15% of total cold-related mortality over ~11 weeks). When including the impacts of climate change, our results suggest that the number of heat-related deaths associated with the summer UHI will increase from 96 (in 2006) to 221 in the 2080s, based on the RCP8.5 emissions pathway. The protective effect of the wintertime UHI is projected to increase only slightly from 266 cold-related deaths avoided in 2009 to 280 avoided in the 2080s. The different effects of the UHI in winter and summer should be considered when assessing interventions in the built environment for reducing summer urban heat, and our results suggest that the future burden of temperature-related mortality associated with the UHI is likely to increase in summer relative to winter.
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Affiliation(s)
- Helen L Macintyre
- Climate Change and Health Group, Centre for Radiation Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, Central House, 14 Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK
| | - Xiaoming Cai
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
| | - Revati Phalkey
- Climate Change and Health Group, Centre for Radiation Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; Division of Epidemiology and Public Health, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham City Hospital, Hucknall Road, NG51PB Nottingham, UK; Heidelberg Institute for Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 130.3, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany
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15
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Heaviside C, Witham C, Vardoulakis S. Potential health impacts from sulphur dioxide and sulphate exposure in the UK resulting from an Icelandic effusive volcanic eruption. Sci Total Environ 2021; 774:145549. [PMID: 33611010 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145549] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2020] [Revised: 01/26/2021] [Accepted: 01/27/2021] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Ash, gases and particles emitted from volcanic eruptions cause disruption to air transport, but also have negative impacts on respiratory and cardiovascular health. Exposure to sulphur dioxide (SO2) and sulphate (SO4) aerosols increases the risk of mortality, and respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions. Ash and gases can be transported over large distances and are a potential public health risk. In 2014-15, the Bárðarbunga fissure eruption at Holuhraun, Iceland was associated with high emissions of SO2 and SO4, detected at UK monitoring stations. We estimated the potential impacts on the UK population from SO2 and SO4 associated with a hypothetical large fissure eruption in Iceland for mortality and emergency hospital admissions. To simulate the effects of different weather conditions, we used an ensemble of 80 runs from an atmospheric dispersion model to simulate SO2 and SO4 concentrations on a background of varying meteorology. We weighted the simulated exposure data by population, and quantified the potential health impacts that may result in the UK over a 6-week period following the start of an eruption. We found in the majority of cases, the expected number of deaths resulting from SO2 over a 6-week period total fewer than ~100 for each model run, and for SO4, in the majority of cases, the number totals fewer than ~200. However, the 6-week simulated period with the highest SO2 was associated with 313 deaths, and the period with the highest SO4 was associated with 826 deaths. The single 6-week period relating to the highest combined SO2 and SO4 was associated with 925 deaths. Over a 5-month extended exposure period, upper estimates are for 3350 deaths, 4030 emergency cardiovascular and 6493 emergency respiratory hospitalizations. These figures represent a worst-case scenario and can inform health protection planning for effusive volcanic eruptions which may affect the UK in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Clare Heaviside
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK.
| | | | - Sotiris Vardoulakis
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia; European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Truro, Cornwall, UK
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16
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Fenech S, Doherty RM, O'Connor FM, Heaviside C, Macintyre HL, Vardoulakis S, Agnew P, Neal LS. Future air pollution related health burdens associated with RCP emission changes in the UK. Sci Total Environ 2021; 773:145635. [PMID: 33582353 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145635] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2020] [Revised: 01/13/2021] [Accepted: 01/31/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used to simulate future ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the United Kingdom (UK) for the 2050s relative to the 2000s with an air quality model (AQUM) at a 12 km horizontal resolution. The present-day and future attributable fractions (AF) of mortality associated with long-term exposure to annual mean O3, NO2 and PM2.5 have accordingly been estimated for the first time for regions across England, Scotland and Wales. Across the three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), simulated annual mean of the daily maximum 8-h mean (MDA8) O3 concentrations increase compared to present-day, likely due to decreases in NOx (nitrogen oxides) emissions, leading to less titration of O3 by NO. Annual mean NO2 and PM2.5 concentrations decrease under all RCPs for the 2050s, mostly driven by decreases in NOx and sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions, respectively. The AF of mortality associated with long-term exposure to annual mean MDA8 O3 is estimated to increase in the future across all the regions and for all RCPs. Reductions in NO2 and PM2.5 concentrations lead to reductions in the AF estimated for future periods under all RCPs, for both pollutants. Total mortality burdens are also highly sensitive to future population projections. Accounting for population projections exacerbates differences in total UK-wide MDA8 O3-health burdens between present-day and future by up to a factor of ~3 but diminishes differences in NO2-health burdens. For PM2.5, accounting for future population projections results in additional UK-wide deaths brought forward compared to present-day under RCP2.6 and RCP6.0, even though the simulated PM2.5 concentrations for the 2050s are estimated to decrease. Thus, these results highlight the sensitivity of future health burdens in the UK to future trends in atmospheric emissions over the UK as well as future population projections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sara Fenech
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, UK.
| | - Ruth M Doherty
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Clare Heaviside
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, Central House, 14 Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK
| | - Helen L Macintyre
- Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, UK; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK
| | - Sotiris Vardoulakis
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
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17
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Arbuthnott K, Hajat S, Heaviside C, Vardoulakis S. Years of life lost and mortality due to heat and cold in the three largest English cities. Environ Int 2020; 144:105966. [PMID: 32771827 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2020.105966] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2020] [Revised: 07/03/2020] [Accepted: 07/08/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
There is a well-established relationship between temperature and mortality, with older individuals being most at risk in high-income settings. This raises the question of the degree to which lives are being shortened by exposure to heat or cold. Years of life lost (YLL) take into account population life expectancy and age at which mortality occurs. However, YLL are rarely used as an outcome-metric in studies of temperature-related mortality. This represents an important gap in knowledge; to better comprehend potential impacts of temperature in the context of climate change and an ageing population, it is important to understand the relationship between temperature and YLL, and also whether the risks of temperature related mortality and YLL have changed over recent years. Gridded temperature data derived from observations, and mortality data were provided by the UK Met Office and the Office for National Statistics (ONS), respectively. We derived YLL for each death using sex-specific yearly life expectancy from ONS English-national lifetables. We undertook an ecological time-series regression analysis, using a distributed-lag double-threshold model, to estimate the relationship between daily mean temperature and daily YLL and mortality between 1996 and 2013 in Greater London, the West Midlands including Birmingham, and Greater Manchester. Temperature-thresholds, as determined by model best fit, were set at the 91st (for heat-effects) and 35th (for cold-effects) percentiles of the mean temperature distribution. Secondly, we analysed whether there had been any changes in heat and cold related risk of YLL and mortality over time. Heat-effects (lag 0-2 days) were greatest in London, where for each 1 °C above the heat-threshold the risk of mortality increased by 3.9% (CI 3.5%, 4.3%) and YLL increased by 3.0% (2.5%, 3.5%). Between 1996 and 2013, the proportion of total deaths and YLL attributable to heat in London were 0.50% and 0.40% respectively. Cold-effects (lag 0-27 days) were greatest in the West Midlands, where for each 1 °C below the cold-threshold, risk of mortality increased by 3.1% (2.4%, 3.7%) and YLL also increased by 3.1% (2.2%, 3.9%). The proportion of deaths and YLL attributable to cold in the West Midlands were 3.3% and 3.2% respectively. We found no evidence of decreasing susceptibility to heat and cold over time. The addition of life expectancy information into calculations of temperature-related risk and mortality burdens for English cities is novel. We demonstrate that although older individuals are at greatest risk of temperature-related mortality, heat and cold still make a significant contribution to the YLL due to premature death.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine Arbuthnott
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, UK; Chemicals and Environmental Effects Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Didcot OX11 0RQ, UK.
| | - Shakoor Hajat
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, UK
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, Central House, 14 Woburn Place, London WC1H ONN, UK
| | - Sotiris Vardoulakis
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601 Australia
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18
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Sharpe RA, Machray KE, Fleming LE, Taylor T, Henley W, Chenore T, Hutchcroft I, Taylor J, Heaviside C, Wheeler BW. Household energy efficiency and health: Area-level analysis of hospital admissions in England. Environ Int 2019; 133:105164. [PMID: 31518939 PMCID: PMC6853278 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2019.105164] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2019] [Revised: 09/04/2019] [Accepted: 09/05/2019] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Fuel poverty affects up to 35% of European homes, which represents a significant burden on society and healthcare systems. Draught proofing homes to prevent heat loss, improved glazing, insulation and heating (energy efficiency measures) can make more homes more affordable to heat. This has prompted significant investment in energy efficiency upgrades for around 40% of UK households to reduce the impact of fuel poverty. Despite some inconsistent evidence, household energy efficiency interventions can improve cardiovascular and respiratory health outcomes. However, the health benefits of these interventions have not been fully explored; this is the focus of this study. METHODS In this cross sectional ecological study, we conducted two sets of analyses at different spatial resolution to explore population data on housing energy efficiency measures and hospital admissions at the area-level (counts grouped over a 3-year period). Housing data were obtained from three data sets covering housing across England (Household Energy Efficiency Database), Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) and, in the South West of England, the Devon Home Analytics Portal. These databases provided data aggregated to Lower Area Super Output Area and postcode level (Home Analytics Portal only). These datasets provided measures of both state (e.g. EPC ratings) and intervention (e.g. number of boiler replacements), aggregated spatially and temporally to enable cross-sectional analyses with health outcome data. Hospital admissions for adult (over 18 years) asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) were obtained from the Hospital Episode Statistics database for the national (1st April 2011 to 31st March 2014) and Devon, South West of England (1st April 2014 to 31st March 2017) analyses. Descriptive statistics and regression models were used to describe the associations between small area household energy efficiency measures and hospital admissions. Three main analyses were undertaken to investigate the relationships between; 1) household energy efficiency improvements (i.e. improved glazing, insulation and boiler upgrades); 2) higher levels of energy efficiency ratings (measured by Energy Performance Certificate ratings); 3) energy efficiency improvements and ratings (i.e. physical improvements and rating assessed by the Standard Assessment Procedure) and hospital admissions. RESULTS In the national analyses, household energy performance certificate ratings ranged from 37 to 83 (mean 61.98; Standard Deviation 5.24). There were a total of 312,837 emergency admissions for asthma, 587,770 for COPD and 839,416 for CVD. While analyses for individual energy efficiency metrics (i.e. boiler upgrades, draught proofing, glazing, loft and wall insulation) were mixed; a unit increase in mean energy performance rating was associated with increases of around 0.5% in asthma and CVD admissions, and 1% higher COPD admission rates. Admission rates were also influenced by the type of dwelling, tenure status (e.g. home owner versus renting), living in a rural area, and minimum winter temperature. DISCUSSION Despite a range of limitations and some mixed and contrasting findings across the national and local analyses, there was some evidence that areas with more energy efficiency improvements resulted in higher admission rates for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. This builds on existing evidence highlighting the complex relationships between health and housing. While energy efficiency measures can improve health outcomes (especially when targeting those with chronic respiratory illness), reduced household ventilation rates can impact indoor air quality for example and increase the risk of diseases such as asthma. Alternatively, these findings could be due to the ecological study design, reverse causality, or the non-detection of more vulnerable subpopulations, as well as the targeting of areas with poor housing stock, low income households, and the lack of "whole house approaches" when retrofitting the existing housing stock. CONCLUSION To be sustainable, household energy efficiency policies and resulting interventions must account for whole house approaches (i.e. consideration of the whole house and occupant lifestyles). These must consider more alternative 'greener' and more sustainable measures, which are capable of accounting for variable lifestyles, as well as the need for adequate heating and ventilation. Larger natural experiments and more complex modelling are needed to further investigate the impact of ongoing dramatic changes in the housing stock and health. STUDY IMPLICATIONS This study supports the need for more holistic approaches to delivering healthier indoor environments, which must consider a dynamic and complex system with multiple interactions between a range of interrelated factors. These need to consider the drivers and pressures (e.g. quality of the built environment and resident behaviours) resulting in environmental exposures and adverse health outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- R A Sharpe
- European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Knowledge Spa, Royal Cornwall Hospital, Truro, Cornwall TR1 3HD, United Kingdom; Public Health, Cornwall Council, 1E, New County Hall, Truro TR1 3AY, United Kingdom
| | - K E Machray
- European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Knowledge Spa, Royal Cornwall Hospital, Truro, Cornwall TR1 3HD, United Kingdom
| | - L E Fleming
- European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Knowledge Spa, Royal Cornwall Hospital, Truro, Cornwall TR1 3HD, United Kingdom
| | - T Taylor
- European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Knowledge Spa, Royal Cornwall Hospital, Truro, Cornwall TR1 3HD, United Kingdom
| | - W Henley
- Health Statistics Research Group, Institute of Health Research, University of Exeter Medical School, St Luke's Campus, Exeter, EX1 2LU, United Kingdom
| | - T Chenore
- NHS NEW Devon Clinical Commissioning Group, County Hall, Exeter EX2 4QD, United Kingdom
| | - I Hutchcroft
- Regen, Bradninch Court, Castle Street, Exeter EX4 3PL and Energiesprong UK Limited, National Energy Centre, Davy Avenue, Knowlhill, Milton Keynes MK5 8NG, United Kingdom
| | - J Taylor
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, UCL, 14 Upper Woburn Plc, London WC1H 0NN, United Kingdom
| | - C Heaviside
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - B W Wheeler
- European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Knowledge Spa, Royal Cornwall Hospital, Truro, Cornwall TR1 3HD, United Kingdom.
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19
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Macintyre HL, Heaviside C. Potential benefits of cool roofs in reducing heat-related mortality during heatwaves in a European city. Environ Int 2019; 127:430-441. [PMID: 30959308 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2019.02.065] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2018] [Revised: 02/25/2019] [Accepted: 02/25/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Hot weather can exacerbate health conditions such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, and lead to heat stroke and death. In built up areas, temperatures are commonly observed to be higher than those in surrounding rural areas, due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Climate change and increasing urbanisation mean that future populations are likely to be at increased risk of overheating in cities, although building and city scale interventions have the potential to reduce this risk. We use a regional weather model to assess the potential effect of one type of urban intervention - reflective 'cool' roofs - to reduce local ambient temperatures, and the subsequent impact on heat-related mortality in the West Midlands, UK, with analysis undertaken for the summer of 2006, as well as two shorter heatwave periods in 2006 and 2003. We show that over a summer season, the population-weighted UHI intensity (the difference between simulated urban and rural temperature) was 1.1 °C on average, but 1.8 °C when including only night times, and reached a maximum of 9 °C in the West Midlands. Our results suggest that the UHI contributes up to 40% of heat related mortality over the summer period and that cool roofs implemented across the whole city could potentially offset 18% of seasonal heat-related mortality associated with the UHI (corresponding to 7% of total heat-related mortality). For heatwave periods, our modelling suggests that cool roofs could reduce city centre daytime 2 m air temperature by 0.5 °C on average, and up to a maximum of ~3 °C. Cool roofs reduced average UHI intensity by ~23%, and reduced heat related mortality associated with the UHI by ~25% during a heatwave. Cool roofs were most effective at reducing peak temperatures during the daytime, and therefore have the potential to limit dangerous extreme temperatures during heatwaves. Temperature reductions were dependent on the category of buildings where cool roofs were applied; targeting only commercial and industrial type buildings contributed more than half of the reduction for heatwave periods. Our modelling suggested that modifying half of all industrial/commercial urban buildings could have the same impact as modifying all high-intensity residential buildings in the West Midlands.
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Affiliation(s)
- H L Macintyre
- Chemicals and Environmental Effects Department, Centre for Radiation Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.
| | - C Heaviside
- Chemicals and Environmental Effects Department, Centre for Radiation Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK
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20
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Mitsakou C, Dimitroulopoulou S, Heaviside C, Katsouyanni K, Samoli E, Rodopoulou S, Costa C, Almendra R, Santana P, Dell'Olmo MM, Borrell C, Corman D, Zengarini N, Deboosere P, Franke C, Schweikart J, Lustigova M, Spyrou C, de Hoogh K, Fecht D, Gulliver J, Vardoulakis S. Environmental public health risks in European metropolitan areas within the EURO-HEALTHY project. Sci Total Environ 2019; 658:1630-1639. [PMID: 30678019 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.130] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2018] [Revised: 12/03/2018] [Accepted: 12/09/2018] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Urban areas in Europe are facing a range of environmental public health challenges, such as air pollution, traffic noise and road injuries. The identification and quantification of the public health risks associated with exposure to environmental conditions is important for prioritising policies and interventions that aim to diminish the risks and improve the health of the population. With this purpose in mind, the EURO-HEALTHY project used a consistent approach to assess the impact of key environmental risk factors and urban environmental determinants on public health in European metropolitan areas. A number of environmental public health indicators, which are closely tied to the physical and built environment, were identified through stakeholder consultation; data were collected from six European metropolitan areas (Athens, Barcelona, Lisbon, London, Stockholm and Turin) covering the period 2000-2014, and a health impact assessment framework enabled the quantification of health effects (attributable deaths) associated with these indicators. The key environmental public health indicators were related to air pollution and certain urban environmental conditions (urban green spaces, road safety). The air pollution was generally the highest environmental public health risk; the associated number of deaths in Athens, Barcelona and London ranged between 800 and 2300 attributable deaths per year. The number of victims of road traffic accidents and the associated deaths were lowest in the most recent year compared with previous years. We also examined the positive impacts on health associated with urban green spaces by calculating reduced mortality impacts for populations residing in areas with greater green space coverage; results in Athens showed reductions of all-cause mortality of 26 per 100,000 inhabitants for populations with benefits of local greenspace. Based on our analysis, we discuss recommendations of potential interventions that could be implemented to reduce the environmental public health risks in the European metropolitan areas covered by this study.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christina Mitsakou
- Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards (CRCE), Public Health England, UK.
| | - Sani Dimitroulopoulou
- Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards (CRCE), Public Health England, UK
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards (CRCE), Public Health England, UK; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, UK
| | - Klea Katsouyanni
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece
| | - Evangelia Samoli
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece
| | - Sophia Rodopoulou
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece
| | - Claudia Costa
- Centre of Studies in Geography and Spatial Planning, Department of Geography and Tourism, University of Coimbra, Portugal
| | - Ricardo Almendra
- Centre of Studies in Geography and Spatial Planning, Department of Geography and Tourism, University of Coimbra, Portugal
| | - Paula Santana
- Centre of Studies in Geography and Spatial Planning, Department of Geography and Tourism, University of Coimbra, Portugal
| | - Marc Marí Dell'Olmo
- Agencia de Salut Publica de Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Carme Borrell
- Agencia de Salut Publica de Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | | | | | | | - Conrad Franke
- Beuth University of Applied Sciences, Berlin, Germany
| | | | | | - Christos Spyrou
- Department of Atmospheric Physics, School of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece
| | - Kees de Hoogh
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Daniela Fecht
- UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit, MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College London, UK
| | - John Gulliver
- UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit, MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College London, UK
| | - Sotiris Vardoulakis
- Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards (CRCE), Public Health England, UK; Institute of Occupational Medicine, UK
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21
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Arbuthnott K, Hajat S, Heaviside C, Vardoulakis S. What is cold-related mortality? A multi-disciplinary perspective to inform climate change impact assessments. Environ Int 2018; 121:119-129. [PMID: 30199667 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2018.08.053] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2018] [Revised: 08/02/2018] [Accepted: 08/24/2018] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND There is a growing discussion regarding the mortality burdens of hot and cold weather and how the balance between these may alter as a result of climate change. Net effects of climate change are often presented, and in some settings these may suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality will outweigh increases in heat-related mortality. However, key to these discussions is that the magnitude of temperature-related mortality is wholly sensitive to the placement of the temperature threshold above or below which effects are modelled. For cold exposure especially, where threshold effects are often ill-defined, choices in threshold placement have varied widely between published studies, even within the same location. Despite this, there is little discussion around appropriate threshold selection and whether reported associations reflect true causal relationships - i.e. whether all deaths occurring below a given temperature threshold can be regarded as cold-related and are therefore likely to decrease as climate warms. OBJECTIVES Our objectives are to initiate a discussion around the importance of threshold placement and examine evidence for causality across the full range of temperatures used to quantify cold-related mortality. We examine whether understanding causal mechanisms can inform threshold selection, the interpretation of current and future cold-related health burdens and their use in policy formation. METHODS Using Greater London data as an example, we first illustrate the sensitivity of cold related mortality to threshold selection. Using the Bradford Hill criteria as a framework, we then integrate knowledge and evidence from multiple disciplines and areas- including animal and human physiology, epidemiology, biomarker studies and population level studies. This allows for discussion of several possible direct and indirect causal mechanisms operating across the range of 'cold' temperatures and lag periods used in health impact studies, and whether this in turn can inform appropriate threshold placement. RESULTS Evidence from a range of disciplines appears to support a causal relationship for cold across a range of temperatures and lag periods, although there is more consistent evidence for a causal effect at more extreme temperatures. It is plausible that 'direct' mechanisms for cold mortality are likely to occur at lower temperatures and 'indirect' mechanisms (e.g. via increased spread of infection) may occur at milder temperatures. CONCLUSIONS Separating the effects of 'extreme' and 'moderate' cold (e.g. temperatures between approximately 8-9 °C and 18 °C in the UK) could help the interpretation of studies quoting attributable mortality burdens. However there remains the general dilemma of whether it is better to use a lower cold threshold below which we are more certain of a causal relationship, but at the risk of under-estimating deaths attributable to cold.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine Arbuthnott
- The Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, WC1H 9SH, UK; Chemicals and Environmental Effects Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Didcot OX11 0RQ, UK.
| | - Shakoor Hajat
- The Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, WC1H 9SH, UK
| | - Clare Heaviside
- The Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, WC1H 9SH, UK; Chemicals and Environmental Effects Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Didcot OX11 0RQ, UK; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Sotiris Vardoulakis
- The Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, WC1H 9SH, UK; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK; Institute of Occupational Medicine, Edinburgh, EH14 4AP, UK
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22
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Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Guo Y, Sera F, Huber V, Schleussner CF, Mitchell D, Tong S, Coelho MDSZS, Saldiva PHN, Lavigne E, Correa PM, Ortega NV, Kan H, Osorio S, Kyselý J, Urban A, Jaakkola JJK, Ryti NRI, Pascal M, Goodman PG, Zeka A, Michelozzi P, Scortichini M, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Hurtado-Diaz M, Cruz J, Seposo X, Kim H, Tobias A, Íñiguez C, Forsberg B, Åström DO, Ragettli MS, Röösli M, Guo YL, Wu CF, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Bell ML, Dang TN, Do Van D, Heaviside C, Vardoulakis S, Hajat S, Haines A, Armstrong B, Ebi KL, Gasparrini A. Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios. Clim Change 2018; 150:391-402. [PMID: 30405277 PMCID: PMC6217994 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2274-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/15/2018] [Accepted: 08/03/2018] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to Bhold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C". The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, Bloomsbury, London, WC1E 7HT UK
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 99 Commercial Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004 Australia
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population Health, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, QLD 4072 Australia
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, Bloomsbury, London, WC1E 7HT UK
| | - Veronika Huber
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
- Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Carretera de Utrera, 41013 Sevilla, Spain
| | - Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
- Climate Analytics, Ritterstraße 3, 10969 Berlin, Germany
| | - Dann Mitchell
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, BS8 1SS UK
| | - Shilu Tong
- School of Public Health and Institute of Environment and Human Health, Anhui Medical University, Meishan Road, Hefei, 81 230032 China
- Shanghai Children’s Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao-Tong University, 1678 Dongfang Rd, Shanghai, 200127 China
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, 2 George St, Brisbane City, QLD 4000 Australia
| | | | - Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva
- Institute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, Rua Praça do Relógio, 109, Building K, 5th floor, Cidade Universitária, ZC, São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-970 Brazil
| | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, 600 Peter Morand Crescent, Ottawa, K1G 5Z3 Canada
- Healthy Environments and Consumer Safety Branch, Health Canada, Ottawa, Canada
| | - Patricia Matus Correa
- Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Mons. Alvaro del Portillo 12, 455 Santiago, Chile
| | - Nicolas Valdes Ortega
- Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Mons. Alvaro del Portillo 12, 455 Santiago, Chile
| | - Haidong Kan
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, 138 Yi xue yuan Road, Shanghai, 200032 China
| | - Samuel Osorio
- Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo, 715 - Cerqueira César, São Paulo, São Paulo 03178-200 Brazil
| | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Bocni, 1401 14131 Prague, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Kamycka, 129 16521 Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Bocni, 1401 14131 Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Jouni J. K. Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Aapistie 5B, FI-90014 Oulu, Finland
| | - Niilo R. I. Ryti
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Aapistie 5B, FI-90014 Oulu, Finland
| | - Mathilde Pascal
- Santé Publique France, French National Public Health Agency, 12 rue du Val d’Osne, 94415 Saint Maurice, France
| | - Patrick G. Goodman
- School of Physics, Dublin Institute of Technology, Kevin Street 2, Dublin, D08 X622 Ireland
| | - Ariana Zeka
- Institute of Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, Kingston Ln, Uxbridge, London, UB8 3PH UK
| | - Paola Michelozzi
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Via Cristoforo Colombo, 112 00147 Rome, Italy
| | - Matteo Scortichini
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Via Cristoforo Colombo, 112 00147 Rome, Italy
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, 1-12-4 Sakamoto Nagasaki, Nagasaki, 852-8523 Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, 305-8574 Japan
| | - Magali Hurtado-Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Universidad No. 655 Colonia Santa María Ahuacatitlán, Cerrada Los Pinos y Caminera, 62100 Cuernavaca, Morelos Mexico
| | - Julio Cruz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Universidad No. 655 Colonia Santa María Ahuacatitlán, Cerrada Los Pinos y Caminera, 62100 Cuernavaca, Morelos Mexico
| | - Xerxes Seposo
- Department of Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoudai Katsura Campus, Nishikyou Ward, Kyoto, 615-8540 Japan
- Department of Global Ecology, Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Yoshidahonmachi, Sakyo Ward, Kyoto, 606-8501 Japan
| | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, 1Gwanak-ro Gwanak-gu, Seoul, 08826 Republic of Korea
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Jordi Girona 18-26, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
| | - Carmen Íñiguez
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Environmental Health Joint Research Unit FISABIO-UV-UJI CIBERESP, University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain
| | - Bertil Forsberg
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, 901 85 Umeå, Sweden
| | - Daniel Oudin Åström
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, 901 85 Umeå, Sweden
| | - Martina S. Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, 4051 Basel, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Petersplatz 1, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Martin Röösli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, 4051 Basel, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Petersplatz 1, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Yue Leon Guo
- Environmental and Occupational Medicine, and Institute of Occupational Medicine and Industrial Hygiene, National Taiwan University (NTU) and NTU Hospital, 1 Section 4, Roosevelt Rd, Da’an District, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Chang-fu Wu
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, 35 Keyan Road, 35053 Zhunan, Taiwan
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115 USA
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115 USA
| | - Michelle L. Bell
- School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, 195 Prospect St, New Haven, CT 06511 USA
| | - Tran Ngoc Dang
- Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Ho Chi Minh city, 217 Hồng Bàng, Phường 11, Quận 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, 254 Nguyễn Văn Linh, Thạc Gián, Q. Thanh Khê, Da Nang, Vietnam
| | - Dung Do Van
- Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Ho Chi Minh city, 217 Hồng Bàng, Phường 11, Quận 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, Bloomsbury, London, WC1E 7HT UK
- Chemical and Environmental Effects, Centre for Radiation, Chemical & Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Didcot Oxon, Chilton, London, OX11 0RQ UK
| | - Sotiris Vardoulakis
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, Bloomsbury, London, WC1E 7HT UK
- Institute of Occupational Medicine, Research Avenue North, Riccarton, Edinburgh, EH14 4AP UK
| | - Shakoor Hajat
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, Bloomsbury, London, WC1E 7HT UK
| | - Andy Haines
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, Bloomsbury, London, WC1E 7HT UK
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, Bloomsbury, London, WC1E 7HT UK
| | - Kristie L. Ebi
- Center for Health and the Global Environment (CHanGE), University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105 USA
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, Bloomsbury, London, WC1E 7HT UK
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Mitchell D, Heaviside C, Schaller N, Allen M, Ebi KL, Fischer EM, Gasparrini A, Harrington L, Kharin V, Shiogama H, Sillmann J, Sippel S, Vardoulakis S. Extreme heat-related mortality avoided under Paris Agreement goals. Nat Clim Chang 2018; 8:551-553. [PMID: 30319715 PMCID: PMC6181199 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0210-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
In key European cities, stabilizing climate warming at 1.5 °C would decrease extreme heat-related mortality by 15-22% per summer compared with stabilization at 2 °C.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Mitchell
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Chemical and Environmental Effects Department, Public Health England, Oxford, UK
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Nathalie Schaller
- Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway
| | - Myles Allen
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Kristie L. Ebi
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Erich M. Fischer
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | | | - Luke Harrington
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Viatcheslav Kharin
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Hideo Shiogama
- Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Jana Sillmann
- Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway
| | | | - Sotiris Vardoulakis
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Institute of Occupational Medicine, Edinburgh, UK
- European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Truro, UK
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24
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Taylor J, Wilkinson P, Picetti R, Symonds P, Heaviside C, Macintyre HL, Davies M, Mavrogianni A, Hutchinson E. Comparison of built environment adaptations to heat exposure and mortality during hot weather, West Midlands region, UK. Environ Int 2018; 111:287-294. [PMID: 29153471 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2017.11.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2017] [Revised: 10/26/2017] [Accepted: 11/08/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
There is growing recognition of the need to improve protection against the adverse health effects of hot weather in the context of climate change. We quantify the impact of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) and selected adaptation measures made to dwellings on temperature exposure and mortality in the West Midlands region of the UK. We used 1) building physics models to assess indoor temperatures, initially in the existing housing stock and then following adaptation measures (energy efficiency building fabric upgrades and/or window shutters), of representative dwelling archetypes using data from the English Housing Survey (EHS), and 2) modelled UHI effect on outdoor temperatures. The ages of residents were combined with evidence on the heat-mortality relationship to estimate mortality risk and to quantify population-level changes in risk following adaptations to reduce summertime heat exposure. Results indicate that the UHI effect accounts for an estimated 21% of mortality. External shutters may reduce heat-related mortality by 30-60% depending on weather conditions, while shutters in conjunction with energy-efficient retrofitting may reduce risk by up to 52%. The use of shutters appears to be one of the most effective measures providing protection against heat-related mortality during periods of high summer temperatures, although their effectiveness may be limited under extreme temperatures. Energy efficiency adaptations to the dwellings and measures to increase green space in the urban environment to combat the UHI effect appear to be less beneficial for reducing heat-related mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathon Taylor
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK.
| | - Paul Wilkinson
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Roberto Picetti
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Phil Symonds
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK; Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, OX11 0RQ, UK; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK
| | - Helen L Macintyre
- Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, OX11 0RQ, UK
| | - Michael Davies
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK
| | - Anna Mavrogianni
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK
| | - Emma Hutchinson
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK
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25
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Macintyre HL, Heaviside C, Taylor J, Picetti R, Symonds P, Cai XM, Vardoulakis S. Assessing urban population vulnerability and environmental risks across an urban area during heatwaves - Implications for health protection. Sci Total Environ 2018; 610-611:678-690. [PMID: 28822935 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.062] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2017] [Revised: 08/07/2017] [Accepted: 08/07/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Heatwaves can lead to a range of adverse impacts including increased risk of illness and mortality; the heatwave in August 2003 has been associated with ~70,000 deaths across Europe. Due to climate change, heatwaves are likely to become more intense, more frequent and last longer in the future. A number of factors may influence risks associated with heat exposure, such as population age, housing type, and location within the Urban Heat Island, and such factors may not be evenly distributed spatially across a region. We simulated and analysed two major heatwaves in the UK, in August 2003 and July 2006, to assess spatial vulnerability to heat exposure across the West Midlands, an area containing ~5 million people, and how ambient temperature varies in relation to factors that influence heat-related health effects, through weighting of ambient temperatures according to distributions of these factors across an urban area. Additionally we present quantification of how particular centres such as hospitals are exposed to the UHI, by comparing temperatures at these locations with average temperatures across the region, and presenting these results for both day and night times. We find that UHI intensity was substantial during both heatwaves, reaching a maximum of +9.6°C in Birmingham in July 2006. Previous work has shown some housing types, such as flats and terraced houses, are associated with increased risk of overheating, and our results show that these housing types are generally located within the warmest parts of the city. Older age groups are more susceptible to the effects of heat. Our analysis of distribution of population based on age group showed there is only small spatial variation in ambient temperature that different age groups are exposed to. Analysis of relative deprivation across the region indicates more deprived populations are located in the warmest parts of the city.
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Affiliation(s)
- H L Macintyre
- Chemical and Environmental Effects Department, Centre for Radiation Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK.
| | - C Heaviside
- Chemical and Environmental Effects Department, Centre for Radiation Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
| | - J Taylor
- University College London, Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK
| | - R Picetti
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - P Symonds
- University College London, Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK
| | - X-M Cai
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
| | - S Vardoulakis
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK; Institute of Occupational Medicine, Research Avenue North, Riccarton, Edinburgh, Midlothian EH14 4AP, UK
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26
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Gasparrini A, Guo Y, Sera F, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Huber V, Tong S, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M, Nascimento Saldiva PH, Lavigne E, Matus Correa P, Valdes Ortega N, Kan H, Osorio S, Kyselý J, Urban A, Jaakkola JJK, Ryti NRI, Pascal M, Goodman PG, Zeka A, Michelozzi P, Scortichini M, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Hurtado-Diaz M, Cesar Cruz J, Seposo X, Kim H, Tobias A, Iñiguez C, Forsberg B, Åström DO, Ragettli MS, Guo YL, Wu CF, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Bell ML, Dang TN, Van DD, Heaviside C, Vardoulakis S, Hajat S, Haines A, Armstrong B. Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios. Lancet Planet Health 2017; 1:e360-e367. [PMID: 29276803 PMCID: PMC5729020 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(17)30156-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 282] [Impact Index Per Article: 40.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. METHODS We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. FINDINGS Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (-3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (-4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet. INTERPRETATION This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks. FUNDING UK Medical Research Council.
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Affiliation(s)
- Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Veronika Huber
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Shilu Tong
- School of Public Health and Institute of Environment and Human Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao-Tong University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | | | | | - Eric Lavigne
- Department of Epidemiology, Public Health and Preventive Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | | | | | - Haidong Kan
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Samuel Osorio
- Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Jouni J K Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu, Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Niilo R I Ryti
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu, Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Mathilde Pascal
- Santé Publique France, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
| | | | - Ariana Zeka
- Institute of Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, UK
| | - Paola Michelozzi
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
| | | | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Magali Hurtado-Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico
| | - Julio Cesar Cruz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico
| | - Xerxes Seposo
- Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Carmen Iñiguez
- Epidemiology and Environmental Health Joint Research Unit, CIBERESP, University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain
| | - Bertil Forsberg
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Daniel Oudin Åström
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden; Department of Clinical Science, Malmö, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Martina S Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Yue Leon Guo
- Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University (NTU) and NTU Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Chang-Fu Wu
- Department of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven CT, USA
| | - Tran Ngoc Dang
- Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
| | - Dung Do Van
- Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical & Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, UK
| | - Sotiris Vardoulakis
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Institute of Occupational Medicine, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Shakoor Hajat
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Andy Haines
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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Bassett R, Cai X, Chapman L, Heaviside C, Thornes JE. The Effects of Heat Advection on UK Weather and Climate Observations in the Vicinity of Small Urbanized Areas. Boundary Layer Meteorol 2017; 165:181-196. [PMID: 32009661 PMCID: PMC6961505 DOI: 10.1007/s10546-017-0263-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2016] [Accepted: 05/11/2017] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Weather and climate networks traditionally follow rigorous siting guidelines, with individual stations located away from frost hollows, trees or urban areas. However, the diverse nature of the UK landscape suggests that the feasibility of siting stations that are truly representative of regional climate and free from distorting local effects is increasingly difficult. Whilst the urban heat island is a well-studied phenomenon and usually accounted for, the effect of warm urban air advected downwind is rarely considered, particularly at rural stations adjacent to urban areas. Until recently, urban heat advection (UHA) was viewed as an urban boundary-layer process through the formation of an urban plume that rises above the surface as it is advected. However, these dynamic UHA effects are shown to also have an impact on surface observations. Results show a significant difference in temperatures anomalies ( p < 0.001 ) between observations taken downwind of urban and rural areas. For example, urban heat advection from small urbanized areas ( ∼ 1 km 2 ) under low cloud cover and wind speeds of 2-3 m s - 1 is found to increase mean nocturnal air temperatures by 0.6 ∘ C at a horizontal distance of 0.5 km. Fundamentally, these UHA results highlight the importance of careful interpretation of long-term temperature data taken near small urban areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Richard Bassett
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT UK
| | - Xiaoming Cai
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT UK
| | - Lee Chapman
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT UK
| | - Clare Heaviside
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT UK
- Chemical and Environmental Effects Department, CRCE, Public Health England, Harwell, UK
| | - John E. Thornes
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT UK
- Chemical and Environmental Effects Department, CRCE, Public Health England, Harwell, UK
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28
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Macintyre HL, Heaviside C, Neal LS, Agnew P, Thornes J, Vardoulakis S. Mortality and emergency hospitalizations associated with atmospheric particulate matter episodes across the UK in spring 2014. Environ Int 2016; 97:108-116. [PMID: 27633498 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2016.07.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2016] [Revised: 07/28/2016] [Accepted: 07/28/2016] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Exposure to particulate air pollution is known to have negative impacts on human health. Long-term exposure to anthropogenic particulate matter is associated with the equivalent of around 29,000 deaths a year in the UK. However, short-lived air pollution episodes on the order of a few days are also associated with increased daily mortality and emergency hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. The UK experienced widespread high levels of particulate air pollution in March-April 2014; observations of hourly mean PM2.5 concentrations reached up to 83μgm-3 at urban background sites. We performed an exposure and health impact assessment of the spring air pollution, focusing on two episodes with the highest concentrations of PM2.5 (12-14 March and 28 March-3 April 2014). Across these two episodes of elevated air pollution, totalling 10days, around 600 deaths were brought forward from short-term exposure to PM2.5, representing 3.9% of total all-cause (excluding external) mortality during these days. Using observed levels of PM2.5 from other years, we estimate that this is 2.0 to 2.7 times the mortality burden associated with typical urban background levels of PM2.5 at this time of year. Our results highlight the potential public health impacts and may aid planning for health care resources when such an episode is forecast.
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Affiliation(s)
- Helen L Macintyre
- Environmental Change Department, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, United Kingdom.
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Environmental Change Department, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, United Kingdom
| | - Lucy S Neal
- Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
| | - Paul Agnew
- Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
| | - John Thornes
- Environmental Change Department, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, United Kingdom
| | - Sotiris Vardoulakis
- Environmental Change Department, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, United Kingdom
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29
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Heaviside C, Tsangari H, Paschalidou A, Vardoulakis S, Kassomenos P, Georgiou KE, Yamasaki EN. Heat-related mortality in Cyprus for current and future climate scenarios. Sci Total Environ 2016; 569-570:627-633. [PMID: 27376918 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.138] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2016] [Revised: 06/17/2016] [Accepted: 06/17/2016] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
Extreme temperatures have long been associated with adverse health impacts, ranging from minor illness, to increased hospitalizations and mortality. Heat-related mortality during summer months is likely to become an increasing public health problem in future due to the effects of climate change. We performed a health impact assessment for heat-related mortality for the warm months of April-September for the years 2004 to 2009 inclusive, for the city of Nicosia and for Cyprus as a whole, based on separately derived exposure-response functions. We further estimated the potential future heat-related mortality by including climate projections for southern Europe, which suggest changes in temperature of between 1°C and 5°C over the next century. There were 32 heat-related deaths per year in Cyprus over the study period. When adding the projected increase in temperature due to climate change, there was a substantial increase in mortality: for a 1°C increase in temperature, heat related mortality in Cyprus was estimated to double to 64 per year, and for a 5°C increase, heat-related mortality was expected to be 8 times the baseline rate for the warm season (281 compared with 32). This analysis highlights the importance of preparing for potential health impacts due to heat in Cyprus, particularly under a changing climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Clare Heaviside
- Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, United Kingdom
| | | | - Anastasia Paschalidou
- Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, GR-68200 Orestiada, Greece
| | - Sotiris Vardoulakis
- Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, United Kingdom
| | - Pavlos Kassomenos
- Laboratory of Meteorology, Department of Physics, University of Ioannina, GR-45110 Ioannina, Greece
| | - Kyriakos E Georgiou
- Cyprus Centre for European and International Affairs, University of Nicosia, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Edna N Yamasaki
- University of Nicosia, 46 Makedonitissas Ave, 1700 Nicosia, Cyprus
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30
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Salmond JA, Tadaki M, Vardoulakis S, Arbuthnott K, Coutts A, Demuzere M, Dirks KN, Heaviside C, Lim S, Macintyre H, McInnes RN, Wheeler BW. Health and climate related ecosystem services provided by street trees in the urban environment. Environ Health 2016; 15 Suppl 1:36. [PMID: 26961700 PMCID: PMC4895605 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-016-0103-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 126] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Urban tree planting initiatives are being actively promoted as a planning tool to enable urban areas to adapt to and mitigate against climate change, enhance urban sustainability and improve human health and well-being. However, opportunities for creating new areas of green space within cities are often limited and tree planting initiatives may be constrained to kerbside locations. At this scale, the net impact of trees on human health and the local environment is less clear, and generalised approaches for evaluating their impact are not well developed.In this review, we use an urban ecosystems services framework to evaluate the direct, and locally-generated, ecosystems services and disservices provided by street trees. We focus our review on the services of major importance to human health and well-being which include 'climate regulation', 'air quality regulation' and 'aesthetics and cultural services'. These are themes that are commonly used to justify new street tree or street tree retention initiatives. We argue that current scientific understanding of the impact of street trees on human health and the urban environment has been limited by predominantly regional-scale reductionist approaches which consider vegetation generally and/or single out individual services or impacts without considering the wider synergistic impacts of street trees on urban ecosystems. This can lead planners and policymakers towards decision making based on single parameter optimisation strategies which may be problematic when a single intervention offers different outcomes and has multiple effects and potential trade-offs in different places.We suggest that a holistic approach is required to evaluate the services and disservices provided by street trees at different scales. We provide information to guide decision makers and planners in their attempts to evaluate the value of vegetation in their local setting. We show that by ensuring that the specific aim of the intervention, the scale of the desired biophysical effect and an awareness of a range of impacts guide the choice of i) tree species, ii) location and iii) density of tree placement, street trees can be an important tool for urban planners and designers in developing resilient and resourceful cities in an era of climatic change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer A Salmond
- School of Environment, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, 1142, New Zealand.
| | - Marc Tadaki
- Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, 1984 West Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z2, Canada.
| | - Sotiris Vardoulakis
- Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, OX11 0RQ, UK.
- European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Knowledge Spa, Royal Cornwall Hospital, Truro, Cornwall, TR1 3HD, UK.
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK.
| | - Katherine Arbuthnott
- Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, OX11 0RQ, UK.
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK.
| | - Andrew Coutts
- School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, 3800, Australia.
- , Cooperative Research Centre for Water Sensitive Cities, Australia.
| | - Matthias Demuzere
- School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, 3800, Australia.
- , Cooperative Research Centre for Water Sensitive Cities, Australia.
- Department of Earth & Environmental Sciences Physical and Regional Geography Research Group - Regional climate studies Celestijnenlaan 200E, KU Leuven, 3001, Heverlee (Leuven), Belgium.
| | - Kim N Dirks
- School of Population Health, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, 1142, New Zealand.
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, OX11 0RQ, UK.
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK.
| | - Shanon Lim
- School of Environment, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, 1142, New Zealand
| | - Helen Macintyre
- Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, OX11 0RQ, UK.
| | - Rachel N McInnes
- European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Knowledge Spa, Royal Cornwall Hospital, Truro, Cornwall, TR1 3HD, UK.
- Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3 PB, UK.
| | - Benedict W Wheeler
- European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Knowledge Spa, Royal Cornwall Hospital, Truro, Cornwall, TR1 3HD, UK.
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Arbuthnott K, Hajat S, Heaviside C, Vardoulakis S. Changes in population susceptibility to heat and cold over time: assessing adaptation to climate change. Environ Health 2016; 15 Suppl 1:33. [PMID: 26961541 PMCID: PMC4895245 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-016-0102-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 86] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In the context of a warming climate and increasing urbanisation (with the associated urban heat island effect), interest in understanding temperature related health effects is growing. Previous reviews have examined how the temperature-mortality relationship varies by geographical location. There have been no reviews examining the empirical evidence for changes in population susceptibility to the effects of heat and/or cold over time. The objective of this paper is to review studies which have specifically examined variations in temperature related mortality risks over the 20(th) and 21(st) centuries and determine whether population adaptation to heat and/or cold has occurred. METHODS We searched five electronic databases combining search terms for three main concepts: temperature, health outcomes and changes in vulnerability or adaptation. Studies included were those which quantified the risk of heat related mortality with changing ambient temperature in a specific location over time, or those which compared mortality outcomes between two different extreme temperature events (heatwaves) in one location. RESULTS The electronic searches returned 9183 titles and abstracts, of which eleven studies examining the effects of ambient temperature over time were included and six studies comparing the effect of different heatwaves at discrete time points were included. Of the eleven papers that quantified the risk of, or absolute heat related mortality over time, ten found a decrease in susceptibility over time of which five found the decrease to be significant. The magnitude of the decrease varied by location. Only two studies attempted to quantitatively attribute changes in susceptibility to specific adaptive measures and found no significant association between the risk of heat related mortality and air conditioning prevalence within or between cities over time. Four of the six papers examining effects of heatwaves found a decrease in expected mortality in later years. Five studies examined the risk of cold. In contrast to the changes in heat related mortality observed, only one found a significant decrease in cold related mortality in later time periods. CONCLUSIONS There is evidence that across a number of different settings, population susceptibility to heat and heatwaves has been decreasing. These changes in heat related susceptibility have important implications for health impact assessments of future heat related risk. A similar decrease in cold related mortality was not shown. Adaptation to heat has implications for future planning, particularly in urban areas, with anticipated increases in temperature due to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine Arbuthnott
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London,, WC1H 9SH, UK.
- Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Didcot, OX11 0RQ, UK.
| | - Shakoor Hajat
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London,, WC1H 9SH, UK.
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London,, WC1H 9SH, UK.
- Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Didcot, OX11 0RQ, UK.
| | - Sotiris Vardoulakis
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London,, WC1H 9SH, UK.
- Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Didcot, OX11 0RQ, UK.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect describes the phenomenon whereby cities are generally warmer than surrounding rural areas. Traditionally, temperature monitoring sites are placed outside of city centres, which means that point measurements do not always reflect the true air temperature of urban centres, and estimates of health impacts based on such data may under-estimate the impact of heat on public health. Climate change is likely to exacerbate heatwaves in future, but because climate projections do not usually include the UHI, health impacts may be further underestimated. These factors motivate a two-dimensional analysis of population weighted temperature across an urban area, for heat related health impact assessments, since populations are typically densest in urban centres, where ambient temperatures are highest and the UHI is most pronounced. We investigate the sensitivity of health impact estimates to the use of population weighting and the inclusion of urban temperatures in exposure data. METHODS We quantify the attribution of the UHI to heat related mortality in the West Midlands during the heatwave of August 2003 by comparing health impacts based on two modelled temperature simulations. The first simulation is based on detailed urban land use information and captures the extent of the UHI, whereas in the second simulation, urban land surfaces have been replaced by rural types. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The results suggest that the UHI contributed around 50 % of the total heat-related mortality during the 2003 heatwave in the West Midlands. We also find that taking a geographical, rather than population-weighted, mean of temperature across the regions under-estimates the population exposure to temperatures by around 1 °C, roughly equivalent to a 20 % underestimation in mortality. We compare the mortality contribution of the UHI to impacts expected from a range of projected temperatures based on the UKCP09 Climate Projections. For a medium emissions scenario, a typical heatwave in 2080 could be responsible for an increase in mortality of around 3 times the rate in 2003 (278 vs. 90 deaths) when including changes in population, population weighting and the UHI effect in the West Midlands, and assuming no change in population adaptation to heat in future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Clare Heaviside
- Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Oxon, UK.
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
| | - Sotiris Vardoulakis
- Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Oxon, UK.
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
| | - Xiao-Ming Cai
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
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Atkinson RW, Butland BK, Dimitroulopoulou C, Heal MR, Stedman JR, Carslaw N, Jarvis D, Heaviside C, Vardoulakis S, Walton H, Anderson HR. Long-term exposure to ambient ozone and mortality: a quantitative systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence from cohort studies. BMJ Open 2016; 6:e009493. [PMID: 26908518 PMCID: PMC4769417 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2015-009493] [Citation(s) in RCA: 98] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES While there is good evidence for associations between short-term exposure to ozone and a range of adverse health outcomes, the evidence from narrative reviews for long-term exposure is suggestive of associations with respiratory mortality only. We conducted a systematic, quantitative evaluation of the evidence from cohort studies, reporting associations between long-term exposure to ozone and mortality. METHODS Cohort studies published in peer-reviewed journals indexed in EMBASE and MEDLINE to September 2015 and PubMed to October 2015 and cited in reviews/key publications were identified via search strings using terms relating to study design, pollutant and health outcome. Study details and estimate information were extracted and used to calculate standardised effect estimates expressed as HRs per 10 ppb increment in long-term ozone concentrations. RESULTS 14 publications from 8 cohorts presented results for ozone and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. We found no evidence of associations between long-term annual O3 concentrations and the risk of death from all causes, cardiovascular or respiratory diseases, or lung cancer. 4 cohorts assessed ozone concentrations measured during the warm season. Summary HRs for cardiovascular and respiratory causes of death derived from 3 cohorts were 1.01 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.02) and 1.03 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.05) per 10 ppb, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Our quantitative review revealed a paucity of independent studies regarding the associations between long-term exposure to ozone and mortality. The potential impact of climate change and increasing anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors on ozone levels worldwide suggests further studies of the long-term effects of exposure to high ozone levels are warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- R W Atkinson
- Population Health Research Institute and MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, St George's, University of London, London, UK
| | - B K Butland
- Population Health Research Institute and MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, St George's, University of London, London, UK
| | - C Dimitroulopoulou
- Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Oxon, UK
| | - M R Heal
- School of Chemistry, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - J R Stedman
- RICARDO-AEA, Harwell IBC, Didcot, Oxfordshire, UK
| | - N Carslaw
- Environment Department, University of York, York, UK
| | - D Jarvis
- National Heart & Lung Institute, Imperial College London and MRC-PHE Centre for Environment & Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - C Heaviside
- Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Oxon, UK
| | - S Vardoulakis
- Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Oxon, UK
| | - H Walton
- MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, King's College London, London, UK
| | - H R Anderson
- Population Health Research Institute and MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, St George's, University of London, London, UK MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, King's College London, London, UK
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Tsangari H, Paschalidou AK, Kassomenos AP, Vardoulakis S, Heaviside C, Georgiou KE, Yamasaki EN. Extreme weather and air pollution effects on cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions in Cyprus. Sci Total Environ 2016; 542:247-53. [PMID: 26519584 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.10.106] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2015] [Revised: 10/20/2015] [Accepted: 10/21/2015] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
In many regions of the world, climatic change is associated with increased extreme temperatures, which can have severe effects on mortality and morbidity. In this study, we examine the effect of extreme weather on hospital admissions in Cyprus, for inland and coastal areas, through the use of synoptic weather classifications (air mass types). In addition, the effect of particulate air pollution (PM10) on morbidity is examined. Our results show that two air mass types, namely (a) warm, rainy days with increased levels of water vapour in the atmosphere and (b) cold, cloudy days with increased levels of precipitation, were associated with increased morbidity in the form of hospital admissions. This was true both for cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, for all age groups, but particularly for the elderly, aged over 65. Particulate air pollution was also associated with increased morbidity in Cyprus, where the effect was more pronounced for cardiovascular diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- H Tsangari
- University of Nicosia Research Foundation, University of Nicosia, 49 Makedonitissas Ave, 1700 Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - A K Paschalidou
- Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, GR-68200 Orestiada, Greece.
| | - A P Kassomenos
- Laboratory of Meteorology, Department of Physics, University of Ioannina, GR-45110 Ioannina, Greece
| | - S Vardoulakis
- Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, United Kingdom
| | - C Heaviside
- Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, United Kingdom
| | - K E Georgiou
- Cyprus Centre for European and International Affairs, University of Nicosia, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - E N Yamasaki
- University of Nicosia Research Foundation, University of Nicosia, 49 Makedonitissas Ave, 1700 Nicosia, Cyprus
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Vardoulakis S, Dimitroulopoulou C, Thornes J, Lai KM, Taylor J, Myers I, Heaviside C, Mavrogianni A, Shrubsole C, Chalabi Z, Davies M, Wilkinson P. Impact of climate change on the domestic indoor environment and associated health risks in the UK. Environ Int 2015; 85:299-313. [PMID: 26453820 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2015.09.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 83] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2015] [Revised: 07/30/2015] [Accepted: 09/07/2015] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
There is growing evidence that projected climate change has the potential to significantly affect public health. In the UK, much of this impact is likely to arise by amplifying existing risks related to heat exposure, flooding, and chemical and biological contamination in buildings. Identifying the health effects of climate change on the indoor environment, and risks and opportunities related to climate change adaptation and mitigation, can help protect public health. We explored a range of health risks in the domestic indoor environment related to climate change, as well as the potential health benefits and unintended harmful effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies in the UK housing sector. We reviewed relevant scientific literature, focusing on housing-related health effects in the UK likely to arise through either direct or indirect mechanisms of climate change or mitigation and adaptation measures in the built environment. We considered the following categories of effect: (i) indoor temperatures, (ii) indoor air quality, (iii) indoor allergens and infections, and (iv) flood damage and water contamination. Climate change may exacerbate health risks and inequalities across these categories and in a variety of ways, if adequate adaptation measures are not taken. Certain changes to the indoor environment can affect indoor air quality or promote the growth and propagation of pathogenic organisms. Measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have the potential for ancillary public health benefits including reductions in health burdens related heat and cold, indoor exposure to air pollution derived from outdoor sources, and mould growth. However, increasing airtightness of dwellings in pursuit of energy efficiency could also have negative effects by increasing concentrations of pollutants (such as PM2.5, CO and radon) derived from indoor or ground sources, and biological contamination. These effects can largely be ameliorated by mechanical ventilation with heat recovery (MVHR) and air filtration, where such solution is feasible and when the system is properly installed, operated and maintained. Groups at high risk of these adverse health effects include the elderly (especially those living on their own), individuals with pre-existing illnesses, people living in overcrowded accommodation, and the socioeconomically deprived. A better understanding of how current and emerging building infrastructure design, construction, and materials may affect health in the context of climate change and mitigation and adaptation measures is needed in the UK and other high income countries. Long-term, energy efficient building design interventions, ensuring adequate ventilation, need to be promoted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sotiris Vardoulakis
- Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SH, UK; Division of Environmental Health and Risk Management, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.
| | - Chrysanthi Dimitroulopoulou
- Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK.
| | - John Thornes
- Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; Division of Environmental Health and Risk Management, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.
| | - Ka-Man Lai
- Department of Biology, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong, China.
| | - Jonathon Taylor
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, The Bartlett School of Environment Energy and Resources, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WCIH ONN, UK.
| | - Isabella Myers
- Public Health England Toxicology Unit, Department of Medicine, Imperial College London, London W12 0NN, UK.
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK; Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SH, UK; Division of Environmental Health and Risk Management, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.
| | - Anna Mavrogianni
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, The Bartlett School of Environment Energy and Resources, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WCIH ONN, UK.
| | - Clive Shrubsole
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, The Bartlett School of Environment Energy and Resources, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WCIH ONN, UK.
| | - Zaid Chalabi
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SH, UK.
| | - Michael Davies
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, The Bartlett School of Environment Energy and Resources, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WCIH ONN, UK.
| | - Paul Wilkinson
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SH, UK.
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Vardoulakis S, Dear K, Hajat S, Heaviside C, Eggen B, McMichael AJ. Comparative assessment of the effects of climate change on heat- and cold-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia. Environ Health Perspect 2014; 122:1285-92. [PMID: 25222967 PMCID: PMC4256046 DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1307524] [Citation(s) in RCA: 108] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2013] [Accepted: 08/14/2014] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND High and low ambient temperatures are associated with increased mortality in temperate and subtropical climates. Temperature-related mortality patterns are expected to change throughout this century because of climate change. OBJECTIVES We compared mortality associated with heat and cold in UK regions and Australian cities for current and projected climates and populations. METHODS Time-series regression analyses were carried out on daily mortality in relation to ambient temperatures for UK regions and Australian cities to estimate relative risk functions for heat and cold and variations in risk parameters by age. Excess deaths due to heat and cold were estimated for future climates. RESULTS In UK regions, cold-related mortality currently accounts for more than one order of magnitude more deaths than heat-related mortality (around 61 and 3 deaths per 100,000 population per year, respectively). In Australian cities, approximately 33 and 2 deaths per 100,000 population are associated every year with cold and heat, respectively. Although cold-related mortality is projected to decrease due to climate change to approximately 42 and 19 deaths per 100,000 population per year in UK regions and Australian cities, heat-related mortality is projected to increase to around 9 and 8 deaths per 100,000 population per year, respectively, by the 2080s, assuming no changes in susceptibility and structure of the population. CONCLUSIONS Projected changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase in heat-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia over this century, but also to a decrease in cold-related deaths. Future temperature-related mortality will be amplified by aging populations. Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary in both countries, while protection from cold weather will be still needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sotiris Vardoulakis
- Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, United Kingdom
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Hajat S, Vardoulakis S, Heaviside C, Eggen B. Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. J Epidemiol Community Health 2014; 68:641-8. [PMID: 24493740 DOI: 10.1136/jech-2013-202449] [Citation(s) in RCA: 165] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere. METHODS Time-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled. RESULTS A significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2% from a baseline of around 41 000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing. CONCLUSIONS Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shakoor Hajat
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Sotiris Vardoulakis
- Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Didcot, UK
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Didcot, UK
| | - Bernd Eggen
- Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Didcot, UK
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Heal MR, Heaviside C, Doherty RM, Vieno M, Stevenson DS, Vardoulakis S. Health burdens of surface ozone in the UK for a range of future scenarios. Environ Int 2013; 61:36-44. [PMID: 24096040 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2013.09.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2013] [Revised: 09/13/2013] [Accepted: 09/16/2013] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
Exposure to surface ozone (O3), which is influenced by emissions of precursor chemical species, meteorology and population distribution, is associated with excess mortality and respiratory morbidity. In this study, the EMEP-WRF atmospheric chemistry transport model was used to simulate surface O3 concentrations at 5km horizontal resolution over the British Isles for a baseline year of 2003, for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios for 2030, and for a +5°C increase in air temperature on the 2003 baseline. Deaths brought forward and hospitalisation burdens for 12 UK regions were calculated from population-weighted daily maximum 8-hour O3. The magnitude of changes in annual mean surface O3 over the UK for +5°C temperature (+1.0 to +1.5ppbv, depending on region) was comparable to those due to inter-annual meteorological variability (-1.5 to +1.5ppbv) but considerably less than changes due to precursor emissions changes by 2030 (-3.0 to +3.5ppbv, depending on scenario and region). Including population changes in 2030, both the 'current legislation' and 'maximum feasible reduction' scenarios yield greater O3-attributable health burdens than the 'high' emission scenario: +28%, +22%, and +16%, respectively, above 2003 baseline deaths brought forward (11,500) and respiratory hospital admissions (30,700), using O3 exposure over the full year and no threshold for health effects. The health burdens are greatest under the 'current legislation' scenario because O3 concentrations increase as a result of both increases in background O3 concentration and decreases in UK NOx emissions. For the +5°C scenario, and no threshold (and not including population increases), total UK health burden increases by 500 premature deaths (4%) relative to the 2003 baseline. If a 35ppbv threshold for O3 effects is assumed, health burdens are more sensitive to the current legislation and +5°C scenarios, although total health burdens are roughly an order of magnitude lower. In all scenarios, the assumption of a threshold increases the proportion of health burden in the south and east of the UK compared with the no threshold assumption. The study highlights that the total, and geographically-apportioned, O3-attributable health burdens in the UK are highly sensitive to the future trends of hemispheric, regional and local emissions of O3 precursors, and to the assumption of a threshold for O3 effect.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mathew R Heal
- School of Chemistry, The University of Edinburgh, Joseph Black Building, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JJ, UK.
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