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Beggs PJ, Trueck S, Linnenluecke MK, Bambrick H, Capon AG, Hanigan IC, Arriagada NB, Cross TJ, Friel S, Green D, Heenan M, Jay O, Kennard H, Malik A, McMichael C, Stevenson M, Vardoulakis S, Dang TN, Garvey G, Lovett R, Matthews V, Phung D, Woodward AJ, Romanello MB, Zhang Y. The 2023 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: sustainability needed in Australia's health care sector. Med J Aust 2024; 220:282-303. [PMID: 38522009 DOI: 10.5694/mja2.52245] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2023] [Accepted: 12/06/2023] [Indexed: 03/25/2024]
Abstract
The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Australia was established in 2017 and produced its first national assessment in 2018 and annual updates in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. It examines five broad domains: health hazards, exposures and impacts; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. In this, the sixth report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown, we track progress on an extensive suite of indicators across these five domains, accessing and presenting the latest data and further refining and developing our analyses. Our results highlight the health and economic costs of inaction on health and climate change. A series of major flood events across the four eastern states of Australia in 2022 was the main contributor to insured losses from climate-related catastrophes of $7.168 billion - the highest amount on record. The floods also directly caused 23 deaths and resulted in the displacement of tens of thousands of people. High red meat and processed meat consumption and insufficient consumption of fruit and vegetables accounted for about half of the 87 166 diet-related deaths in Australia in 2021. Correction of this imbalance would both save lives and reduce the heavy carbon footprint associated with meat production. We find signs of progress on health and climate change. Importantly, the Australian Government released Australia's first National Health and Climate Strategy, and the Government of Western Australia is preparing a Health Sector Adaptation Plan. We also find increasing action on, and engagement with, health and climate change at a community level, with the number of electric vehicle sales almost doubling in 2022 compared with 2021, and with a 65% increase in coverage of health and climate change in the media in 2022 compared with 2021. Overall, the urgency of substantial enhancements in Australia's mitigation and adaptation responses to the enormous health and climate change challenge cannot be overstated. Australia's energy system, and its health care sector, currently emit an unreasonable and unjust proportion of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. As the Lancet Countdown enters its second and most critical phase in the leadup to 2030, the depth and breadth of our assessment of health and climate change will be augmented to increasingly examine Australia in its regional context, and to better measure and track key issues in Australia such as mental health and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health and wellbeing.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Hilary Bambrick
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT
| | - Anthony G Capon
- Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC
| | | | | | | | | | - Donna Green
- Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW, Sydney, NSW
| | - Maddie Heenan
- Australian Prevention Partnership Centre, Sax Institute, Sydney, NSW
- The George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, NSW
| | - Ollie Jay
- Thermal Ergonomics Laboratory, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW
| | - Harry Kennard
- Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | | | | | - Mark Stevenson
- Transport, Health and Urban Design (THUD) Research Lab, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC
| | - Sotiris Vardoulakis
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT
| | - Tran N Dang
- University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | | | - Raymond Lovett
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT
- Australian Institute of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Studies, Canberra, ACT
| | - Veronica Matthews
- University Centre for Rural Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW
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2
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Romanello M, Napoli CD, Green C, Kennard H, Lampard P, Scamman D, Walawender M, Ali Z, Ameli N, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Beggs PJ, Belesova K, Berrang Ford L, Bowen K, Cai W, Callaghan M, Campbell-Lendrum D, Chambers J, Cross TJ, van Daalen KR, Dalin C, Dasandi N, Dasgupta S, Davies M, Dominguez-Salas P, Dubrow R, Ebi KL, Eckelman M, Ekins P, Freyberg C, Gasparyan O, Gordon-Strachan G, Graham H, Gunther SH, Hamilton I, Hang Y, Hänninen R, Hartinger S, He K, Heidecke J, Hess JJ, Hsu SC, Jamart L, Jankin S, Jay O, Kelman I, Kiesewetter G, Kinney P, Kniveton D, Kouznetsov R, Larosa F, Lee JKW, Lemke B, Liu Y, Liu Z, Lott M, Lotto Batista M, Lowe R, Odhiambo Sewe M, Martinez-Urtaza J, Maslin M, McAllister L, McMichael C, Mi Z, Milner J, Minor K, Minx JC, Mohajeri N, Momen NC, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morrissey K, Munzert S, Murray KA, Neville T, Nilsson M, Obradovich N, O'Hare MB, Oliveira C, Oreszczyn T, Otto M, Owfi F, Pearman O, Pega F, Pershing A, Rabbaniha M, Rickman J, Robinson EJZ, Rocklöv J, Salas RN, Semenza JC, Sherman JD, Shumake-Guillemot J, Silbert G, Sofiev M, Springmann M, Stowell JD, Tabatabaei M, Taylor J, Thompson R, Tonne C, Treskova M, Trinanes JA, Wagner F, Warnecke L, Whitcombe H, Winning M, Wyns A, Yglesias-González M, Zhang S, Zhang Y, Zhu Q, Gong P, Montgomery H, Costello A. The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms. Lancet 2023; 402:2346-2394. [PMID: 37977174 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(23)01859-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 30.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2023] [Revised: 08/07/2023] [Accepted: 08/31/2023] [Indexed: 11/19/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Marina Romanello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.
| | - Claudia di Napoli
- School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Carole Green
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Harry Kennard
- Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Pete Lampard
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Daniel Scamman
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Maria Walawender
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Zakari Ali
- Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Nadia Ameli
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson
- Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, UK
| | - Paul J Beggs
- School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | | | | | - Kathryn Bowen
- School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Wenjia Cai
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Max Callaghan
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany
| | - Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum
- Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Jonathan Chambers
- Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Troy J Cross
- Heat and Health Research Incubator, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | | | - Carole Dalin
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Niheer Dasandi
- International Development Department, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Shouro Dasgupta
- Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change Foundation, Lecce, Italy
| | - Michael Davies
- Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Robert Dubrow
- School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Matthew Eckelman
- Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Paul Ekins
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Chris Freyberg
- Department of Information Systems, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
| | - Olga Gasparyan
- Department of Political Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA
| | | | - Hilary Graham
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Samuel H Gunther
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Ian Hamilton
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Yun Hang
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA
| | | | - Stella Hartinger
- Carlos Vidal Layseca School of Public Health and Management, Cayetano Heredia Pervuvian University, Lima, Peru
| | - Kehan He
- Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, UK
| | - Julian Heidecke
- Interdisciplinary Center for Scientific Computing, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Jeremy J Hess
- Centre for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Shih-Che Hsu
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Louis Jamart
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Slava Jankin
- Centre for AI in Government, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Ollie Jay
- Heat and Health Research Incubator, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Ilan Kelman
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Gregor Kiesewetter
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Energy, Climate, and Environment Program, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Patrick Kinney
- Department of Environmental Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Dominic Kniveton
- School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton and Hove, UK
| | | | - Francesca Larosa
- Engineering Mechanics, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Jason K W Lee
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Bruno Lemke
- School of Health, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Yang Liu
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA
| | - Zhao Liu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Melissa Lott
- Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | | | - Rachel Lowe
- Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - Jaime Martinez-Urtaza
- Department of Genetics and Microbiology, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain
| | - Mark Maslin
- Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK
| | - Lucy McAllister
- Environmental Studies Program, Denison University, Granville, OH, USA
| | - Celia McMichael
- School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Zhifu Mi
- Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, UK
| | - James Milner
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kelton Minor
- Data Science Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Jan C Minx
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany
| | - Nahid Mohajeri
- Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, UK
| | - Natalie C Momen
- Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Psychosocial Health Research Institute, Department of Community and Family Medicine, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Karyn Morrissey
- Department of Technology Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark
| | | | - Kris A Murray
- Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Tara Neville
- Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Maria Nilsson
- Department for Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | | | - Megan B O'Hare
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Camile Oliveira
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Matthias Otto
- School of Health, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Fereidoon Owfi
- Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Tehran, Iran
| | - Olivia Pearman
- Center for Science and Technology Policy, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Frank Pega
- Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | | | - Jamie Rickman
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Elizabeth J Z Robinson
- Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Interdisciplinary Center for Scientific Computing, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Renee N Salas
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jan C Semenza
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Jodi D Sherman
- Department of Anesthesiology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | | | - Grant Silbert
- Melbourne Medical School, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | | | - Marco Springmann
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Meisam Tabatabaei
- Institute of Tropical Aquaculture and Fisheries, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Jonathon Taylor
- Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
| | | | - Cathryn Tonne
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Marina Treskova
- Interdisciplinary Center for Scientific Computing, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Joaquin A Trinanes
- Department of Electronics and Computer Science, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago, Spain
| | - Fabian Wagner
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Energy, Climate, and Environment Program, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Laura Warnecke
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Energy, Climate, and Environment Program, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Hannah Whitcombe
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Matthew Winning
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Arthur Wyns
- Melbourne Climate Futures, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Marisol Yglesias-González
- Centro Latinoamericano de Excelencia en Cambio Climatico y Salud, Cayetano Heredia Pervuvian University, Lima, Peru
| | - Shihui Zhang
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Ying Zhang
- School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Qiao Zhu
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA
| | - Peng Gong
- Department of Geography, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Hugh Montgomery
- Department of Experimental and Translational Medicine and Division of Medicine, University College London, London, UK
| | - Anthony Costello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
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3
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Springmann M, Kennard H, Dalin C, Freund F. International food trade contributes to dietary risks and mortality at global, regional and national levels. Nat Food 2023; 4:886-893. [PMID: 37814079 PMCID: PMC10589094 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-023-00852-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2022] [Accepted: 09/07/2023] [Indexed: 10/11/2023]
Abstract
Food trade is generally perceived to increase the availability and diversity of foods available to consumers, but there is little empirical evidence on its implications for human health. Here we show that a substantial proportion of dietary risks and diet-related mortality worldwide is attributable to international food trade and that whether the contributions of food trade are positive or negative depends on the types of food traded. Using bilateral trade data for 2019 and food-specific risk-disease relationships, we estimate that imports of fruits, vegetables, legumes and nuts improved dietary risks in the importing countries and were associated with a reduction in mortality from non-communicable diseases of ~1.4 million deaths globally. By contrast, imports of red meat aggravated dietary risks in the importing countries and were associated with an increase of ~150,000 deaths. The magnitude of our findings suggests that considering impacts on dietary risks will become an important aspect of health-sensitive trade and agriculture policies, and of policy responses to disruptions in food chains.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Springmann
- Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
| | - H Kennard
- UCL Energy Institute, Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, London, UK
- Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - C Dalin
- UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources, Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, London, UK
- Laboratoire de Géologie de l'ENS, UMR8538 du CNRS, PSL Research University, Paris, France
| | - F Freund
- Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries, Institute of Market Analysis, Braunschweig, Germany
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4
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Mohajeri N, Hsu SC, Milner J, Taylor J, Kiesewetter G, Gudmundsson A, Kennard H, Hamilton I, Davies M. Urban-rural disparity in global estimation of PM 2·5 household air pollution and its attributable health burden. Lancet Planet Health 2023; 7:e660-e672. [PMID: 37558347 PMCID: PMC10958988 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(23)00133-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2022] [Revised: 06/01/2023] [Accepted: 06/15/2023] [Indexed: 08/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Polluting fuels and inefficient stove technologies are still a leading cause of premature deaths worldwide, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. Previous studies of global household air pollution (HAP) have neither considered the estimation of PM2·5 at national level nor the corresponding attributable mortality burden. Additionally, the effects of climate and ambient air pollution on the global estimation of HAP-PM2·5 exposure for different urban and rural settings remain largely unknown. In this study, we include climatic effects to estimate the HAP-PM2·5 exposure from different fuel types and stove technologies in rural and urban settings separately and the related attributable global mortality burden. METHODS Bayesian hierarchical models were developed to estimate an annual average HAP-PM2·5 personal exposure and HAP-PM2·5 indoor concentration (including both outdoor and indoor sources). Model variables were selected from sample data in 282 peer-reviewed studies drawn and updated from the WHO Global HAP dataset. The PM2·5 exposure coefficients from the developed model were applied to the external datasets to predict the HAP-PM2·5 exposure globally (personal exposure in 62 countries and indoor concentration in 69 countries). Attributable mortality rate was estimated using a comparative risk assessment approach. Using weighted averages, the national level 24 h average HAP-PM2·5 exposure due to polluting and clean fuels and related death rate per 100 000 population were estimated. FINDINGS In 2020, household use of polluting solid fuels for cooking and heating led to a national-level average personal exposure of 151 μg/m3 (95% CI 133-169), with rural households having an average of 171 μg/m3 (153-189) and urban households an average of 92 μg/m3 (77-106). Use of clean fuels gave rise to a national-level average personal exposure of 69 μg/m3 (62-76), with a rural average of 76 μg/m3 (69-83) and an urban average of 49 μg/m3 (46-53). Personal exposure-attributable premature mortality (per 100 000 population) from the use of polluting solid fuels at national level was on average 78 (95% CI 69-87), with a rural average of 82 (73-90) and an urban average of 66 (57-75). The average attributable premature mortality (per 100 000 population) from the use of clean fuels at the national level is 62 (54-70), with a rural average of 66 (58-74) and an urban average of 52 (47-57). The estimated HAP-PM2·5 indoor concentration shows that the use of polluting solid fuels resulted in a national-level average of 412 μg/m3 (95% CI 353-471), with a rural average of 514 μg/m3 (446-582) and an urban average of 149 μg/m3 (126-173). The use of clean fuels (gas and electricity) led to an average PM2·5 indoor concentration of 135 μg/m3 (117-153), with a rural average of 174 μg/m3 (154-195) and an urban average of 71 μg/m3 (63-80). Using time-weighted HAP-PM2·5 indoor concentrations, the attributable premature death rate (per 100 000 population) from the use of polluting solid fuels at the national level is on average 78 (95% CI 72-84), the rural average being 84 (78-91) and the urban average 60 (54-66). From the use of clean fuels, the average attributable premature death rate (per 100 000 population) at the national level is 59 (53-64), the rural average being 68 (62-74) and the urban average 45 (41-50). INTERPRETATION A shift from polluting to clean fuels can reduce the average PM2·5 personal exposure by 53% and thereby lower the death rate. For all fuel types, the estimated average HAP-PM2·5 personal exposure and indoor concentrations exceed the WHO's Interim Target-1 average annual threshold. Policy interventions are urgently needed to greatly increase the use of clean fuels and stove technologies by 2030 to achieve the goal of affordable clean energy access, as set by the UN in 2015, and address health inequities in urban-rural settings. FUNDING Wellcome Trust, The Lancet Countdown, the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, and the Natural Environment Research Council.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nahid Mohajeri
- Institute of Environmental Design and Engineering, Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, London, UK.
| | - Shih-Che Hsu
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - James Milner
- Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Jonathon Taylor
- Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
| | - Gregor Kiesewetter
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Agust Gudmundsson
- Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, UK
| | - Harry Kennard
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK; Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Ian Hamilton
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Mike Davies
- Institute of Environmental Design and Engineering, Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, London, UK
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5
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Romanello M, Di Napoli C, Drummond P, Green C, Kennard H, Lampard P, Scamman D, Arnell N, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Ford LB, Belesova K, Bowen K, Cai W, Callaghan M, Campbell-Lendrum D, Chambers J, van Daalen KR, Dalin C, Dasandi N, Dasgupta S, Davies M, Dominguez-Salas P, Dubrow R, Ebi KL, Eckelman M, Ekins P, Escobar LE, Georgeson L, Graham H, Gunther SH, Hamilton I, Hang Y, Hänninen R, Hartinger S, He K, Hess JJ, Hsu SC, Jankin S, Jamart L, Jay O, Kelman I, Kiesewetter G, Kinney P, Kjellstrom T, Kniveton D, Lee JKW, Lemke B, Liu Y, Liu Z, Lott M, Batista ML, Lowe R, MacGuire F, Sewe MO, Martinez-Urtaza J, Maslin M, McAllister L, McGushin A, McMichael C, Mi Z, Milner J, Minor K, Minx JC, Mohajeri N, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morrissey K, Munzert S, Murray KA, Neville T, Nilsson M, Obradovich N, O'Hare MB, Oreszczyn T, Otto M, Owfi F, Pearman O, Rabbaniha M, Robinson EJZ, Rocklöv J, Salas RN, Semenza JC, Sherman JD, Shi L, Shumake-Guillemot J, Silbert G, Sofiev M, Springmann M, Stowell J, Tabatabaei M, Taylor J, Triñanes J, Wagner F, Wilkinson P, Winning M, Yglesias-González M, Zhang S, Gong P, Montgomery H, Costello A. The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: health at the mercy of fossil fuels. Lancet 2022; 400:1619-1654. [PMID: 36306815 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(22)01540-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 280] [Impact Index Per Article: 140.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2022] [Revised: 08/04/2022] [Accepted: 08/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Marina Romanello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.
| | - Claudia Di Napoli
- School of Agriculture Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Paul Drummond
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Carole Green
- Department of Global Health, Centre for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Harry Kennard
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Pete Lampard
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Daniel Scamman
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Nigel Arnell
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson
- Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Kristine Belesova
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kathryn Bowen
- School of Population Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Wenjia Cai
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Max Callaghan
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany
| | - Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum
- Department of Environment, Climate Change, and Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Jonathan Chambers
- Institute of Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Kim R van Daalen
- Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health & Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Carole Dalin
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Niheer Dasandi
- School of Government, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Shouro Dasgupta
- Economic Analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venice, Italy
| | - Michael Davies
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Robert Dubrow
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences and Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Department of Global Health, Centre for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Matthew Eckelman
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Paul Ekins
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Luis E Escobar
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA
| | | | - Hilary Graham
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Samuel H Gunther
- NUS Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University Singapore, Singapore
| | - Ian Hamilton
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Yun Hang
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | - Stella Hartinger
- Facultad de Salud Publica y Administracion, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Kehan He
- Bartlett Faculty of the Built Environment, University College London, London, UK
| | - Jeremy J Hess
- Department of Global Health, Centre for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Shih-Che Hsu
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Slava Jankin
- Data Science Lab, Hertie School, Berlin, Germany
| | | | - Ollie Jay
- Heat and Health Research Incubator, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, Australia
| | - Ilan Kelman
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Patrick Kinney
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Tord Kjellstrom
- Health and Environmental International Trust, Nelson, New Zealand
| | | | - Jason K W Lee
- NUS Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University Singapore, Singapore
| | - Bruno Lemke
- School of Health, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Yang Liu
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Zhao Liu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Melissa Lott
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Martin Lotto Batista
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies and Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Frances MacGuire
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Maquins Odhiambo Sewe
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | | | - Mark Maslin
- Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK
| | - Lucy McAllister
- Center for Energy Markets, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Alice McGushin
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Celia McMichael
- School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Zhifu Mi
- Barlett School of Sustainable Construction, University of London, London, UK
| | - James Milner
- Department of Public Health, Environment, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kelton Minor
- Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Jan C Minx
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany
| | - Nahid Mohajeri
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
- Preventative Medicine and Public Health Research Centre, Psychosocial Health Research Institute, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Karyn Morrissey
- Department of Technology, Management and Economics Sustainability, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark
| | | | - Kris A Murray
- MRC Unit The Gambia at LSHTM, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Tara Neville
- Department of Environment, Climate Change, and Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Maria Nilsson
- Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Nick Obradovich
- Centre for Humans and Machines, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany
| | - Megan B O'Hare
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Tadj Oreszczyn
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Matthias Otto
- Department of Arts, Media, and Digital Technologies, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Fereidoon Owfi
- Iranian Fisheries Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran
| | - Olivia Pearman
- Cooperative Institute of Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Mahnaz Rabbaniha
- Iranian Fisheries Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran
| | - Elizabeth J Z Robinson
- Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Heidelberg Institute for Global Health and Interdisciplinary Centre forScientific Computing, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Renee N Salas
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jan C Semenza
- Heidelberg Institute for Global Health and Interdisciplinary Centre forScientific Computing, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Jodi D Sherman
- Department of Anesthesiology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Liuhua Shi
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | - Grant Silbert
- Melbourne Medical School, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | | | - Marco Springmann
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Jennifer Stowell
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Meisam Tabatabaei
- Institute of Tropical Aquaculture and Fisheries, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Jonathon Taylor
- Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
| | - Joaquin Triñanes
- Department of Electronics and Computer Science, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago, Spain
| | - Fabian Wagner
- Energy, Climate, and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Paul Wilkinson
- Department of Public Health, Environment, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Matthew Winning
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Marisol Yglesias-González
- Centro Latinoamericano de Excelencia en Cambio Climático y Salud, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Shihui Zhang
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Gong
- Department of Geography, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Hugh Montgomery
- Centre for Human Health and Performance, University College London, London, UK
| | - Anthony Costello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
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6
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van Daalen KR, Romanello M, Rocklöv J, Semenza JC, Tonne C, Markandya A, Dasandi N, Jankin S, Achebak H, Ballester J, Bechara H, Callaghan MW, Chambers J, Dasgupta S, Drummond P, Farooq Z, Gasparyan O, Gonzalez-Reviriego N, Hamilton I, Hänninen R, Kazmierczak A, Kendrovski V, Kennard H, Kiesewetter G, Lloyd SJ, Lotto Batista M, Martinez-Urtaza J, Milà C, Minx JC, Nieuwenhuijsen M, Palamarchuk J, Quijal-Zamorano M, Robinson EJZ, Scamman D, Schmoll O, Sewe MO, Sjödin H, Sofiev M, Solaraju-Murali B, Springmann M, Triñanes J, Anto JM, Nilsson M, Lowe R. The 2022 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: towards a climate resilient future. Lancet Public Health 2022; 7:e942-e965. [PMID: 36306805 PMCID: PMC9597587 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(22)00197-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2022] [Revised: 07/22/2022] [Accepted: 07/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Kim R van Daalen
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK; Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK
| | - Marina Romanello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany; Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Jan C Semenza
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Cathryn Tonne
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - Niheer Dasandi
- School of Government, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Slava Jankin
- Data Science Lab, Hertie School, Berlin, Germany
| | - Hicham Achebak
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Joan Ballester
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - Max W Callaghan
- Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK; Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany
| | - Jonathan Chambers
- Energy Efficiency Group, Institute for Environmental Sciences (ISE), University of Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Shouro Dasgupta
- Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Venice, Italy; Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Sciences (LSE), UK
| | - Paul Drummond
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Zia Farooq
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | | | | | - Ian Hamilton
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Risto Hänninen
- Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - Vladimir Kendrovski
- European Centre for Environment and Health, WHO Regional Office for Europe, Bonn, Germany
| | - Harry Kennard
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Gregor Kiesewetter
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Simon J Lloyd
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Martin Lotto Batista
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain; Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Department of Epidemiology, Brunswick, Germany
| | - Jaime Martinez-Urtaza
- Department of Genetics and Microbiology, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Carles Milà
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Jan C Minx
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Mark Nieuwenhuijsen
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - Marcos Quijal-Zamorano
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Elizabeth J Z Robinson
- Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Sciences (LSE), UK
| | - Daniel Scamman
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Oliver Schmoll
- European Centre for Environment and Health, WHO Regional Office for Europe, Bonn, Germany
| | | | - Henrik Sjödin
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Mikhail Sofiev
- Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - Marco Springmann
- Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food and Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Joaquin Triñanes
- Department of Electronics and Computer Science, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago, Spain
| | - Josep M Anto
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Maria Nilsson
- Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain; Centre for Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, UK; Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain.
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7
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Kennard H, Oreszczyn T, Mistry M, Hamilton I. Population-weighted degree-days: The global shift between heating and cooling. Energy Build 2022; 271:None. [PMID: 37719455 PMCID: PMC10502910 DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2022.112315] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2022] [Revised: 06/28/2022] [Accepted: 07/13/2022] [Indexed: 09/19/2023]
Abstract
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are driving global increases in temperature. This rise will likely lead to an increase in demand for cooling in the coming years. However, increasing temperatures are not the main explanatory factor for why the world is moving towards more cooling. This paper compares population and area-weighted cooling and heating degree-days derived using ERA5-Land reanalysis temperature, to show that population growth in warmer parts of the world drives cooling demand globally. The analysis shows that mean global area-weighted heating degree-days have fallen 8.46 °C days/year, whereas population-weighted heating degree-days have fallen by 12.5 °C days/year. At the same time, mean global area-weighted cooling degree-days have risen by 3.0 °C days/year, while population-weighted cooling degree-days have risen at 6.0 °C days/year. By using sub-country analysis, this paper shows that population-weighted degree-days can substantially differ from area-weighted degree-days. Finally, the findings highlight that the choice of heating and cooling degree-day base temperature is the most important parameter in the variability of degree-days and will need to be understood better in order to accurately account for future heating and cooling energy demand.
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Affiliation(s)
- H Kennard
- Energy Institute, The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, UCL, London, UK
| | - T Oreszczyn
- Energy Institute, The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, UCL, London, UK
| | - M Mistry
- Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - I Hamilton
- Energy Institute, The Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, UCL, London, UK
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8
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Romanello M, McGushin A, Di Napoli C, Drummond P, Hughes N, Jamart L, Kennard H, Lampard P, Solano Rodriguez B, Arnell N, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Belesova K, Cai W, Campbell-Lendrum D, Capstick S, Chambers J, Chu L, Ciampi L, Dalin C, Dasandi N, Dasgupta S, Davies M, Dominguez-Salas P, Dubrow R, Ebi KL, Eckelman M, Ekins P, Escobar LE, Georgeson L, Grace D, Graham H, Gunther SH, Hartinger S, He K, Heaviside C, Hess J, Hsu SC, Jankin S, Jimenez MP, Kelman I, Kiesewetter G, Kinney PL, Kjellstrom T, Kniveton D, Lee JKW, Lemke B, Liu Y, Liu Z, Lott M, Lowe R, Martinez-Urtaza J, Maslin M, McAllister L, McMichael C, Mi Z, Milner J, Minor K, Mohajeri N, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morrissey K, Munzert S, Murray KA, Neville T, Nilsson M, Obradovich N, Sewe MO, Oreszczyn T, Otto M, Owfi F, Pearman O, Pencheon D, Rabbaniha M, Robinson E, Rocklöv J, Salas RN, Semenza JC, Sherman J, Shi L, Springmann M, Tabatabaei M, Taylor J, Trinanes J, Shumake-Guillemot J, Vu B, Wagner F, Wilkinson P, Winning M, Yglesias M, Zhang S, Gong P, Montgomery H, Costello A, Hamilton I. The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future. Lancet 2021; 398:1619-1662. [PMID: 34687662 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01787-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 410] [Impact Index Per Article: 136.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2021] [Revised: 07/20/2021] [Accepted: 07/29/2021] [Indexed: 01/19/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Marina Romanello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Alice McGushin
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Claudia Di Napoli
- School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Paul Drummond
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Nick Hughes
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Louis Jamart
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Harry Kennard
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Pete Lampard
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | | | - Nigel Arnell
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson
- Institute for Environment and Human Security, United Nations University, Bonn, Germany
| | - Kristine Belesova
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Wenjia Cai
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum
- Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Stuart Capstick
- Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations, School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK
| | - Jonathan Chambers
- Institute for Environmental Sciences, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Lingzhi Chu
- Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Luisa Ciampi
- The Walker Institute, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Carole Dalin
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Niheer Dasandi
- School of Government, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Shouro Dasgupta
- Economic analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venice, Italy
| | - Michael Davies
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Robert Dubrow
- Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Matthew Eckelman
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Paul Ekins
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Luis E Escobar
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA
| | | | - Delia Grace
- Animal and Human Health Program, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Hilary Graham
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Samuel H Gunther
- Human Potential Translational Research Programme, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University Singapore, Singapore
| | - Stella Hartinger
- School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Kehan He
- The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, UK
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Jeremy Hess
- Centre for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Shih-Che Hsu
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Slava Jankin
- Data Science Lab, Hertie School, Berlin, Germany
| | - Marcia P Jimenez
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Ilan Kelman
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Gregor Kiesewetter
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Patrick L Kinney
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Tord Kjellstrom
- Health and Environment International Trust, Nelson, New Zealand
| | | | - Jason K W Lee
- Human Potential Translational Research Programme, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University Singapore, Singapore
| | - Bruno Lemke
- School of Health, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Yang Liu
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Zhao Liu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Melissa Lott
- Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Jaime Martinez-Urtaza
- Department of Genetics and Microbiology, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Mark Maslin
- Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK
| | - Lucy McAllister
- Center for Energy Markets, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Celia McMichael
- School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Zhifu Mi
- The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, UK
| | - James Milner
- Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kelton Minor
- Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Nahid Mohajeri
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Psychosocial Health Research Institute, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Karyn Morrissey
- Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | | | - Kris A Murray
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK; MRC Unit The Gambia, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Tara Neville
- Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Maria Nilsson
- Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Nick Obradovich
- Centre for Humans and Machines, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany
| | - Maquins Odhiambo Sewe
- Section of Sustainable Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Tadj Oreszczyn
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Matthias Otto
- Department of Arts, Media & Digital Technologies, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Fereidoon Owfi
- Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran
| | - Olivia Pearman
- Cooperative Institute of Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - David Pencheon
- College of Medicine and Health, Exeter University, Exeter, UK
| | - Mahnaz Rabbaniha
- Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran
| | - Elizabeth Robinson
- School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Section of Sustainable Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Renee N Salas
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | - Jodi Sherman
- Department of Anesthesiology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Liuhua Shi
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | - Meisam Tabatabaei
- Higher Institution Centre of Excellence, Institute of Tropical Aquaculture and Fisheries, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Jonathon Taylor
- Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
| | - Joaquin Trinanes
- Department of Electronics and Computer Science, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago, Spain
| | | | - Bryan Vu
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Fabian Wagner
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Paul Wilkinson
- Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Matthew Winning
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Marisol Yglesias
- School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Shihui Zhang
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Gong
- Department of Geography, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Hugh Montgomery
- Centre for Human Health and Performance, University College London, London, UK
| | - Anthony Costello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Ian Hamilton
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK.
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9
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Hamilton I, Kennard H, McGushin A, Höglund-Isaksson L, Kiesewetter G, Lott M, Milner J, Purohit P, Rafaj P, Sharma R, Springmann M, Woodcock J, Watts N. The public health implications of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study. Lancet Planet Health 2021; 5:e74-e83. [PMID: 33581069 PMCID: PMC7887663 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(20)30249-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2020] [Revised: 09/10/2020] [Accepted: 09/28/2020] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND nationally determined contributions (NDCs) serve to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement of staying "well below 2°C", which could also yield substantial health co-benefits in the process. However, existing NDC commitments are inadequate to achieve this goal. Placing health as a key focus of the NDCs could present an opportunity to increase ambition and realise health co-benefits. We modelled scenarios to analyse the health co-benefits of NDCs for the year 2040 for nine representative countries (ie, Brazil, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa, the UK, and the USA) that were selected for their contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions and their global or regional influence. METHODS Modelling the energy, food and agriculture, and transport sectors, and mortality related to risk factors of air pollution, diet, and physical activity, we analysed the health co-benefits of existing NDCs and related policies (ie, the current pathways scenario) for 2040 in nine countries around the world. We compared these health co-benefits with two alternative scenarios, one consistent with the goal of the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (ie, the sustainable pathways scenario), and one in line with the sustainable pathways scenario, but also placing health as a central focus of the policies (ie, the health in all climate policies scenario). FINDINGS Compared with the current pathways scenario, the sustainable pathways scenario resulted in an annual reduction of 1·18 million air pollution-related deaths, 5·86 million diet-related deaths, and 1·15 million deaths due to physical inactivity, across the nine countries, by 2040. Adopting the more ambitious health in all climate policies scenario would result in a further reduction of 462 000 annual deaths attributable to air pollution, 572 000 annual deaths attributable to diet, and 943 000 annual deaths attributable to physical inactivity. These benefits were attributable to the mitigation of direct greenhouse gas emissions and the commensurate actions that reduce exposure to harmful pollutants, as well as improved diets and safe physical activity. INTERPRETATION A greater consideration of health in the NDCs and climate change mitigation policies has the potential to yield considerable health benefits as well as achieve the "well below 2°C" commitment across a range of regional and economic contexts. FUNDING This work was in part funded through an unrestricted grant from the Wellcome Trust (award number 209734/Z/17/Z) and supported by an Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council grant (grant number EP/R035288/1).
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Affiliation(s)
- Ian Hamilton
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK.
| | - Harry Kennard
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Alice McGushin
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Lena Höglund-Isaksson
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Gregor Kiesewetter
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Melissa Lott
- Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - James Milner
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Pallav Purohit
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Peter Rafaj
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Rohit Sharma
- Centre for Diet and Activity Research, MRC Epidemiology Unit, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Marco Springmann
- Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Centre on Population Approaches for Non-Communicable Disease Prevention, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - James Woodcock
- Centre for Diet and Activity Research, MRC Epidemiology Unit, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Nick Watts
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
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10
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Watts N, Amann M, Arnell N, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Beagley J, Belesova K, Boykoff M, Byass P, Cai W, Campbell-Lendrum D, Capstick S, Chambers J, Coleman S, Dalin C, Daly M, Dasandi N, Dasgupta S, Davies M, Di Napoli C, Dominguez-Salas P, Drummond P, Dubrow R, Ebi KL, Eckelman M, Ekins P, Escobar LE, Georgeson L, Golder S, Grace D, Graham H, Haggar P, Hamilton I, Hartinger S, Hess J, Hsu SC, Hughes N, Jankin Mikhaylov S, Jimenez MP, Kelman I, Kennard H, Kiesewetter G, Kinney PL, Kjellstrom T, Kniveton D, Lampard P, Lemke B, Liu Y, Liu Z, Lott M, Lowe R, Martinez-Urtaza J, Maslin M, McAllister L, McGushin A, McMichael C, Milner J, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morrissey K, Munzert S, Murray KA, Neville T, Nilsson M, Sewe MO, Oreszczyn T, Otto M, Owfi F, Pearman O, Pencheon D, Quinn R, Rabbaniha M, Robinson E, Rocklöv J, Romanello M, Semenza JC, Sherman J, Shi L, Springmann M, Tabatabaei M, Taylor J, Triñanes J, Shumake-Guillemot J, Vu B, Wilkinson P, Winning M, Gong P, Montgomery H, Costello A. The 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: responding to converging crises. Lancet 2021; 397:129-170. [PMID: 33278353 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)32290-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 670] [Impact Index Per Article: 223.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2020] [Revised: 08/03/2020] [Accepted: 08/04/2020] [Indexed: 01/18/2023]
Abstract
For the Chinese, French, German, and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nick Watts
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.
| | - Markus Amann
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Nigel Arnell
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson
- Institute for Environment and Human Security, United Nations University, Bonn, Germany
| | - Jessica Beagley
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Kristine Belesova
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Maxwell Boykoff
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Peter Byass
- Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Wenjia Cai
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum
- Environment, Climate Change and Health Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Jonathan Chambers
- Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Samantha Coleman
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Carole Dalin
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Meaghan Daly
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of New England, Biddeford, ME, USA
| | - Niheer Dasandi
- School of Government, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Shouro Dasgupta
- Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venice, Italy
| | - Michael Davies
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Claudia Di Napoli
- School of Agriculture, Policy, and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Paula Dominguez-Salas
- Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Paul Drummond
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Robert Dubrow
- Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Matthew Eckelman
- Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Paul Ekins
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Luis E Escobar
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA
| | | | - Su Golder
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Delia Grace
- CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Human Nutrition and Health, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Hilary Graham
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of New England, Biddeford, ME, USA
| | - Paul Haggar
- School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK
| | - Ian Hamilton
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Stella Hartinger
- School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Jeremy Hess
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Shih-Che Hsu
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Nick Hughes
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Marcia P Jimenez
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Ilan Kelman
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Harry Kennard
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Gregor Kiesewetter
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Patrick L Kinney
- Department of Environmental Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Tord Kjellstrom
- Health and Environment International Trust, Nelson, New Zealand
| | | | - Pete Lampard
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Bruno Lemke
- School of Health, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Yang Liu
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Zhao Liu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Melissa Lott
- Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Jaime Martinez-Urtaza
- Department of Genetics and Microbiology, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Mark Maslin
- Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK
| | - Lucy McAllister
- Center for Energy Markets, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Alice McGushin
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Celia McMichael
- School of Geography, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - James Milner
- Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Psychosocial Health Research Institute, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Karyn Morrissey
- European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | | | - Kris A Murray
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK; Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Bakau, The Gambia
| | - Tara Neville
- Environment, Climate Change and Health Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Maria Nilsson
- Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | | | | | - Matthias Otto
- Department of Arts, Media and Digital Technologies, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Fereidoon Owfi
- Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran
| | - Olivia Pearman
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - David Pencheon
- Medical and Health School, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Ruth Quinn
- Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Mahnaz Rabbaniha
- Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran
| | - Elizabeth Robinson
- School of Agriculture, Policy, and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Marina Romanello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Jan C Semenza
- Scientific Assessment Section, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden
| | - Jodi Sherman
- Department of Anesthesiology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Liuhua Shi
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | - Meisam Tabatabaei
- Institute of Tropical Aquaculture and Fisheries, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Jonathon Taylor
- Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
| | - Joaquin Triñanes
- Department of Electronics and Computer Science, CRETUS Institute, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago, Spain
| | | | - Bryan Vu
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Paul Wilkinson
- Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Matthew Winning
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Peng Gong
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Hugh Montgomery
- Institute for Human Health and Performance, University College London, London, UK
| | - Anthony Costello
- Office of the Vice Provost for Research, University College London, London, UK
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11
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Olshanii M, Jacobs K, Rigol M, Dunjko V, Kennard H, Yurovsky VA. An exactly solvable model for the integrability–chaos transition in rough quantum billiards. Nat Commun 2012; 3:641. [DOI: 10.1038/ncomms1653] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2011] [Accepted: 12/19/2011] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
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