Responses of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality to future climate, land use, and emission changes: Insights from modeling across shared socioeconomic pathways

Air pollution induced by fine particulate matter with diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5) poses a significant challenge for global air quality management. Understanding how factors such as climate change, land use and land cover change (LULCC), and changing emissions interact to impact PM2.5 remains limited. To address this gap, we employed the Community Earth System Model and examined both the individual and combined effects of these factors on global surface PM2.5 in 2010 and projected scenarios for 2050 under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Our results reveal biomass-burning and anthropogenic emissions as the primary drivers of surface PM2.5 across all SSPs. Less polluted regions like the US and Europe are expected to experience substantial PM2.5 reduction in all future scenarios, reaching up to ~5 μg m-3 (70 %) in SSP1. However, heavily polluted regions like India and China may experience varied outcomes, with a potential decrease in SSP1 and increase under SSP3. Eastern China witness ~20 % rise in PM2.5 under SSP3, while northern India may experience ~70 % increase under same scenario. Depending on the region, climate change alone is expected to change PM2.5 up to ±5 μg m-3, while the influence of LULCC appears even weaker. The modest changes in PM2.5 attributable to LULCC and climate change are associated with aerosol chemistry and meteorological effects, including biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, SO2 oxidation, and NH4NO3 formation. Despite their comparatively minor role, LULCC and climate change can still significantly shape future air quality in specific regions, potentially counteracting the benefits of emission control initiatives. This study underscores the pivotal role of changes in anthropogenic emissions in shaping future PM2.5 across all SSP scenarios. Thus, addressing all contributing factors, with a primary focus on reducing anthropogenic emissions, is crucial for achieving sustainable reduction in surface PM2.5 levels and meeting sustainable pollution mitigation goals.

Particle-phase accretion forms dimer esters in pinene secondary organic aerosol

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is ubiquitous in the atmosphere and plays a pivotal role in climate, air quality, and health. The production of low-volatility dimeric compounds through accretion reactions is a key aspect of SOA formation. However, despite extensive study, the structures and thus the formation mechanisms of dimers in SOA remain largely uncharacterized. In this work, we elucidate the structures of several major dimer esters in SOA from ozonolysis of α-pinene and β-pinene-substantial global SOA sources-through independent synthesis of authentic standards. We show that these dimer esters are formed in the particle phase and propose a mechanism of nucleophilic addition of alcohols to a cyclic acylperoxyhemiacetal. This chemistry likely represents a general pathway to dimeric compounds in ambient SOA.

Identification and quantification of IEPOX in ambient aerosols, using electron and chemical ionization sources GC/MS as their trimethylsilyl ethers, and using H-NMR

Isoprene is the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC) emitted by vegetation, and the precursor that makes the greatest contribution to secondary organic aerosols (SOA) in the troposphere. Atmospheric oxidation of isoprene produces a series of reactive intermediates, isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX). The reactive uptake of IEPOX is the significant formation pathway of atmospheric SOA. In this work, four isomers of IEPOX were synthesized, derivatized by silylation reagents, and measured by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). The electron-impact (EI) and methane chemical ionization (CI) sources mass spectra of trimethylsilyl ester (TMS) derivatives of IEPOX isomers were obtained and the fragmentation behaviors of the derivatives were examined. Moreover, the hydrogen nuclear magnetic resonance (H-NMR) spectra of IEPOX isomers were also obtained and the peak intensities in the H-NMR spectra were analyzed. Based on the standard spectra, IEPOX isomers were identified in ambient PM_2.5 aerosols in the Gongga Mountain (China). The peak sequence of TMS derivatives of IEPOX isomers in GC/MS chromatogram was δ4-IEPOX, δ1-IEPOX, cis-β-IEPOX and trans-β-IEPOX. The isomers with the highest concentrations were δ1-IEPOX (threo- and erythro-). The mass ratios of IEPOX to 2-methyltetrols were 0.02-6.0 and the concentrations of IEPOX were 0.8-41.6 ng/m³ in the PM_2.5 aerosols. The current study verified the core roles of IEPOX as active intermediates in photo oxidation of isoprene in ambient atmosphere.

Secondary Organic Aerosol Mass Yields from NO3 Oxidation of α-Pinene and Δ-Carene: Effect of RO2 Radical Fate

Dark chamber experiments were conducted to study the SOA formed from the oxidation of α-pinene and Δ-carene under different peroxy radical (RO₂) fate regimes: RO₂ + NO₃, RO₂ + RO₂, and RO₂ + HO₂. SOA mass yields from α-pinene oxidation were <1 to ∼25% and strongly dependent on available OA mass up to ∼100 μg m^-3. The strong yield dependence of α-pinene oxidation is driven by absorptive partitioning to OA and not by available surface area for condensation. Yields from Δ-carene + NO₃ were consistently higher, ranging from ∼10-50% with some dependence on OA for <25 μg m^-3. Explicit kinetic modeling including vapor wall losses was conducted to enable comparisons across VOC precursors and RO₂ fate regimes and to determine atmospherically relevant yields. Furthermore, SOA yields were similar for each monoterpene across the nominal RO₂ + NO₃, RO₂ + RO₂, or RO₂ + HO₂ regimes; thus, the volatility basis sets (VBS) constructed were independent of the chemical regime. Elemental O/C ratios of ∼0.4-0.6 and nitrate/organic mass ratios of ∼0.15 were observed in the particle phase for both monoterpenes in all regimes, using aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) measurements. An empirical relationship for estimating particle density using AMS-derived elemental ratios, previously reported in the literature for non-nitrate containing OA, was successfully adapted to organic nitrate-rich SOA. Observations from an NO₃^- chemical ionization mass spectrometer (NO₃-CIMS) suggest that Δ-carene more readily forms low-volatility gas-phase highly oxygenated molecules (HOMs) than α-pinene, which primarily forms volatile and semivolatile species, when reacted with NO₃, regardless of RO₂ regime. The similar Δ-carene SOA yields across regimes, high O/C ratios, and presence of HOMs, suggest that unimolecular and multistep processes such as alkoxy radical isomerization and decomposition may play a role in the formation of SOA from Δ-carene + NO₃. The scarcity of peroxide functional groups (on average, 14% of C₁₀ groups carried a peroxide functional group in one test experiment in the RO₂ + RO₂ regime) appears to rule out a major role for autoxidation and organic peroxide (ROOH, ROOR) formation. The consistently substantially lower SOA yields observed for α-pinene + NO₃ suggest such pathways are less available for this precursor. The marked and robust regime-independent difference in SOA yield from two different precursor monoterpenes suggests that in order to accurately model SOA production in forested regions the chemical mechanism must feature some distinction among different monoterpenes.

PM2.5-bound organosulfates in two Eastern Mediterranean cities: The dominance of isoprene organosulfates

PM_2.5 samples were collected during 2017-2018 at two Eastern Mediterranean urban sites in Greece, Athens and Patra, in order to study the abundances, the seasonal trends, the sources and the possible impact of gas phase pollutants on organosulfate formation. Each of the studied groups, except that of aromatic organosulfates, presented higher concentrations in Patra compared to those measured in Athens, from 1.1 (nitro-oxy organosulfates) to 3.6 times (isoprene organosulfates). At both sites, isoprene organosulfates was the dominant group which accounted on average for more than 50% of the total measured organosulfates, with the contribution being more than 80% during summer. Strong seasonality was observed at both sites, regarding the isoprene organosulfates, with an almost 21-fold increase from winter to summer. The same pattern, but to a lesser extent, was also observed for monoterpenes organosulfates at both sites. Alkyl organosulfates followed an identical seasonal trend with the highest mean concentrations observed during spring followed by autumn. The seasonality of anthropogenic organosulfates, multisource organosulfates and nitro-oxy organosulfates differed among the two sites or presented a more compound-specific variation. The isoprene-epoxydiol pathway appeared to be the dominant pathway of isoprene transformation, with the compounds iOS211, iOS213 and iOS215 being the major isoprene organosulfate compounds at both sites. Organosulfate contribution to the concentration of particulate matter presented common variation at both sites, ranging from 0.20 ± 0.14% (winter) to 2.5 ± 1.2% (summer) and from 0.21 ± 0.13% (winter) to 5.0 ± 2.5% (summer) for Athens and Patra, respectively. The increased NO_x levels in Athens, appeared to affect isoprene organosulfate formation as well as the formation of monoterpene and decalin nitro-oxy organosulfates. Principal component analysis followed by multiple linear regression analysis highlighted the dominance of isoprene organosulfates. In Athens, the possible impact of transportation emissions on the formation of monoterpene nitro-oxy organosulfates is indicated while the correlation of naphthalene organosulfates with low molecular weight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons suggests that vehicle emissions may be a significant source. In Patra, the possible contribution of sea on methyl sulfate levels is denoted.

Observational Insights into Isoprene Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation through the Epoxide Pathway at Three Urban Sites from Northern to Southern China

Isoprene is the most abundant precursor of global secondary organic aerosol (SOA). The epoxide pathway plays a critical role in isoprene SOA (iSOA) formation, in which isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX) and/or hydroxymethyl-methyl-α-lactone (HMML) can react with nucleophilic sulfate and water producing isoprene-derived organosulfates (iOSs) and oxygen-containing tracers (iOTs), respectively. This process is complicated and highly influenced by anthropogenic emissions, especially in the polluted urban atmospheres. In this study, we took a 1-year measurement of the paired iOSs and iOTs formed through the IEPOX and HMML pathways at the three urban sites from northern to southern China. The annual average concentrations of iSOA products at the three sites ranged from 14.6 to 36.5 ng m^-3. We found that the nucleophilic-addition reaction of isoprene epoxides with water dominated over that with sulfate in the polluted urban air. A simple set of reaction rate constant could not fully describe iOS and iOT formation everywhere. We also found that the IEPOX pathway was dominant over the HMML pathway over urban regions. Using the kinetic data of IEPOX to estimate the reaction parameters of HMML will cause significant underestimation in the importance of HMML pathway. All these findings provide insights into iSOA formation over polluted areas.

The Relevance of the Circular Economy for Climate Change: An Exploration through the Theory of Change Approach

The relevance of the circular economy for climate change is still a developing area of research that needs to be explored. This paper aims to provide an overview of the relevance of the circular economy for climate change through the theory of change approach framework. For this purpose, we analysed 96 articles from the Scopus and WoS databases in the “Arts and Humanities, Business, Management and Accounting, Economics, Econometrics and Finance and Social Sciences,” with the keywords “Circular economy” and “Climate Change”. Our analysis shows that 87% of the reviewed articles showed a strong relevance of the circular economy for climate change. However, most of the articles focused on the mitigation aspect of climate change. The circular economy is widely practised in countries such as the United Kingdom, Italy, Belgium, and China. Our main theoretical contribution is in developing a logical framework through the theory of change, which is a novel approach in social science research apart from monitoring and evaluation studies.

Carbonaceous aerosols and their light absorption properties over the Bay of Bengal during continental outflow

The marine atmosphere of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is prone to get impacted by anthropogenic aerosols from the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) and Southeast Asia (SEA), particularly during the northeast monsoon (NEM). In this study, we quantify and characterize carbonaceous aerosols and their absorption properties collected in two cruise campaigns onboard ORV Sindhu Sadhana during the continental outflow period over the BoB. Aerosol samples were classified based on the air mass back trajectory analyses, wherein samples were impacted by the continental air parcel (CAP), marine air parcel (MAP), and mix of both (CAP + MAP). Significant variability in the PM₁₀ mass concentration (in μg m^-3) is found with a maximum value for MAP samples (75.5 ± 36.4) followed by CAP + MAP (58.5 ± 27.3) and CAP (58.5 ± 27.3). The OC/EC ratio (>2) and diagnostic tracers i.e. nss-K⁺/EC (0.2-0.96) and nss-K⁺/OC (0.11-1.32) along with the absorption angstrom exponent (AAE: 4.31-6.02) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) derived fire counts suggest the dominance of biomass burning emission sources. A positive correlation between OC and EC (i.e. r = 0.86, 0.70, and 0.42 for CAP, MAP, and CAP + MAP, respectively) further confirmed the similar emission sources of carbonaceous species. Similarly, a significant correlation between estimated secondary organic carbon (SOC) and water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC; r = 0.99, 0.96, and 0.97 for CAP, MAP, and CAP + MAP, respectively) indicate their similar chemical nature as well as dominant contribution of SOC to WSOC. The absorption coefficient (b_abs-365) and mass absorption efficiency (MAE_BrC-365) of the soluble fraction were estimated at 365 nm wherein, b_abs-365 showed a linear relationship with WSOC and nss-K⁺, signifying the contribution of water soluble brown carbon from biomass burning emissions. The estimated MAE_BrC-365 (0.30-0.93 m² g^-1), during this study, was consistent with the earlier observations over the BoB, particularly during the continental outflow season.

New mechanistic understanding for atmospheric oxidation of isoprene initiated by atomic chlorine

Isoprene is the most abundant non-methane VOC and a significant SOA contributor. The atmospheric oxidation initiated by atomic chlorine is an important sink for isoprene, especially in certain regions with high Cl concentration, while its detailed oxidation mechanism remains unclear. In this work, we comprehensively investigated the reaction mechanism of isoprene with Cl using quantum chemistry calculation, and first elaborated the specific reaction mechanisms of chloroalkenyl peroxy radicals with HO₂/NO and the formation of 2-methylbut-3-enal, highlighting their important roles in the SOA formation. For the initial reactions, Cl additions to terminal carbons and H abstraction from CH₃ moiety of isoprene are the predominant reactions, which is consistent with previous research. Following the initial reactions, their subsequent reactions with O₂ and HO₂ (or NO) under different atmospheric conditions could lead to the formation of 17 highly oxidized molecules (HOMs), of which P10, P12, P16, P17, P19 and P33 generated by the subsequent reactions of the major first-generation products (MVK, CMBO, CMBA and MBO) have been detected in the reaction process of isoprene with Cl in the chamber experiment. In addition to auto-oxidation process, the reaction of chloroalkenyl peroxy radicals with HO₂/NO and their subsequent reactions are all easy to occur under atmospheric conditions, which could be crucial contributors to the formation of HOMs and SOA arising from the Cl initiated oxidation of isoprene. This study would be conducive to clarifying the atmospheric oxidation process of isoprene initiated by Cl and providing a new understanding of its SOA formation.

Primary and secondary organic aerosol in an urban/industrial site: Sources, health implications and the role of plastic enriched waste burning

PM10 samples were collected from an urban/industrial site nearby Athens, where uncontrolled burning activities occur. PAHs, monocarboxylic, dicarboxylic, hydroxycarboxylic and aromatic acids, tracers from BVOC oxidation, biomass burning tracers and bisphenol A were determined. PAH, monocarboxylic acids, biomass burning tracers and bisphenol A were increased during autumn/winter, while BSOA tracers, dicarboxylic- and hydroxycarboxylic acids during summer. Regarding aromatic acids, different sources and formation mechanisms were indicated as benzoic, phthalic and trimellitic acids were peaked during summer whereas p-toluic, isophthalic and terephthalic were more abundant during autumn/winter. The Benzo[a]pyrene-equivalent carcinogenic power, carcinogenic and mutagenic activities were calculated showing significant (p < 0.05) increases during the colder months. Palmitic, succinic and malic acids were the most abundant monocarboxylic, dicarboxylic and hydrocarboxylic acids during the entire sampling period. Isoprene oxidation was the most significant contributor to BSOA as the isoprene-SOA compounds were two times more abundant than the pinene-SOA (13.4 ± 12.3 and 6.1 ± 2.9 ng/m³, respectively). Ozone has significant impact on the formation of many studied compounds showing significant correlations with: isoprene-SOA (r = 0.77), hydrocarboxylic acids (r = 0.69), pinene-SOA (r = 0.63),dicarboxylic acids (r = 0.58), and the sum of phthalic, benzoic and trimellitic acids (r = 0.44). PCA demonstrated five factors that could explain sources including plastic enriched waste burning (30.8%), oxidation of unsaturated fatty acids (23.0%), vehicle missions and cooking (9.2%), biomass burning (7.7%) and oxidation of VOCs (5.8%). The results highlight the significant contribution of plastic waste uncontrolled burning to the overall air quality degradation.

Synthesis of Carboxylic Acid and Dimer Ester Surrogates to Constrain the Abundance and Distribution of Molecular Products in α-Pinene and β-Pinene Secondary Organic Aerosol

Liquid chromatography/negative electrospray ionization mass spectrometry [LC/(-)ESI-MS] is routinely employed to characterize the identity and abundance of molecular products in secondary organic aerosol (SOA) derived from monoterpene oxidation. Due to a lack of authentic standards, however, commercial terpenoic acids (e.g., cis-pinonic acid) are typically used as surrogates to quantify both monomeric and dimeric SOA constituents. Here, we synthesize a series of enantiopure, pinene-derived carboxylic acid and dimer ester homologues. We find that the (-)ESI efficiencies of the dimer esters are 19-36 times higher than that of cis-pinonic acid, demonstrating that the mass contribution of dimers to monoterpene SOA has been significantly overestimated in past studies. Using the measured (-)ESI efficiencies of the carboxylic acids and dimer esters as more representative surrogates, we determine that molecular products measureable by LC/(-)ESI-MS account for only 21.8 ± 2.6% and 18.9 ± 3.2% of the mass of SOA formed from ozonolysis of α-pinene and β-pinene, respectively. The 28-36 identified monomers (C_7-10H_10-18O_3-6) constitute 15.6-20.5% of total SOA mass, whereas only 1.3-3.3% of the SOA mass is attributable to the 46-62 identified dimers (C_15-19H_24-32O_4-11). The distribution of identified α-pinene and β-pinene SOA molecular products is examined as a function of carbon number (n_C), average carbon oxidation state (OS¯C), and volatility (C*). The observed order-of-magnitude difference in (-)ESI efficiency between monomers and dimers is expected to be broadly applicable to other biogenic and anthropogenic SOA systems analyzed via (-) or (+) LC/ESI-MS under various LC conditions, and demonstrates that the use of unrepresentative surrogates can lead to substantial systematic errors in quantitative LC/ESI-MS analyses of SOA.

Changing Nature of Organic Carbon over the United States

Total organic carbon (TOC) mass concentrations are decreasing across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We investigate decadal trends in organic carbon (OC) thermal fractions [OC1 (volatilizes at 140 °C), OC2 (280 °C), OC3 (480 °C), OC4 (580 °C)] and pyrolyzed carbon (PC), reported at 121 locations in the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network from 2005 to 2015 for 23 regions across the CONUS. Reductions in PC and OC2 drive decreases in TOC (TOC = OC1 + OC2 + OC3 + OC4 + PC) mass concentrations. OC2 decreases by 40% from 2005 to 2015, and PC decreases by 34%. The largest absolute mass decreases occur in the eastern United States, and relative changes normalized to local concentrations are more uniform across the CONUS. OC is converted to organic mass (OM) using region- and season-specific OM:OC ratios. Simulations with GEOS-Chem reproduce OM trends and suggest that decreases across the CONUS are due to aerosol liquid water (ALW) chemistry. Individual model species, notably aerosol derived from isoprene oxidation products and formed in ALW, correlate significantly (p < 0.05) with OM2, even in arid regions. These findings contribute to literature that suggests air quality rules aimed at SO₂ and NO_x emissions induce the cobenefit of reducing organic particle mass through ALW chemistry, and these benefits extend beyond the eastern United States.

Plant Secondary Compounds in Soil and Their Role in Belowground Species Interactions

Knowledge of the effect of plant secondary compounds (PSCs) on belowground interactions in the more diffuse community of species living outside the rhizosphere is sparse compared with what we know about how PSCs affect aboveground interactions. We illustrate here that PSCs from foliar tissue, root exudates, and leaf litter effectively influence such belowground plant-plant, plant-microorganism, and plant-soil invertebrate interactions. Climatic factors can induce PSC production and select for different plant chemical types. Therefore, climate change can alter both quantitative and qualitative PSC production, and how these compounds move in the soil. This can change the soil chemical environment, with cascading effects on both the ecology and evolution of belowground species interactions and, ultimately, soil functioning.

Effects of Meteorological Factors and Anthropogenic Precursors on PM2.5 Concentrations in Cities in China

Fine particulate matter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in size can significantly affect human health, atmospheric visibility, climate, and ecosystems. PM2.5 has become the major air pollutant in most cities of China. However, influencing factors and their interactive effects on PM2.5 concentrations remain unclear. This study used a geographic detector method to quantify the effects of anthropogenic precursors (AP) and meteorological factors on PM2.5 concentrations in cities of China. Results showed that impacts of meteorological conditions and AP on PM2.5 have significant spatio-temporal disparities. Temperature was the main influencing factor throughout the whole year, which can explain 27% of PM2.5 concentrations. Precipitation and temperature were primary impacting factors in southern and northern China, respectively, at the annual time scale. In winter, AP had stronger impacts on PM2.5 in northern China than in other seasons. Ammonia had stronger impacts on PM2.5 than other anthropogenic precursors in winter. The interaction between all factors enhanced the formation of PM2.5 concentrations. The interaction between ammonia and temperature had strongest impacts at the national scale, explaining 46% (q = 0.46) of PM2.5 concentrations. The findings comprehensively elucidated the relative importance of driving factors in PM2.5 formation, which can provide basic foundations for understanding the meteorological and anthropogenic influences on the concentration patterns of PM2.5.

Determination of the stable carbon isotopic compositions of 2-methyltetrols for four forest areas in Southwest China: The implications for the δ13C values of atmospheric isoprene and C3/C4 vegetation distribution

Isoprene is the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) in the troposphere and is released predominantly by vegetation. The δ¹³C values of atmospheric isoprene vary with different plant types (e.g. C₃ and C₄ plants). In this work, aerosol samples were collected in four forest areas in Sichuan Province, China, i.e., the Baima Spring Scenic Area (BM), the Panzhihua Cycas Nature Reserve (PZ), the Gongga Mountain National Nature Reserve (GG) and the Wolong National Nature Reserve (WL) during the summers of 2010-2012. The stable carbon isotopic compositions of 2-methyltetrols, the stable products of isoprene oxidation by OH, were measured using a GC/C/IRMS (gas chromatography/combustion/isotopic ratio mass spectrometry) with methylboronic acid derivatization. The stable carbon isotopic fractionation coefficient of isoprene oxidized by OH (^OHε_i) was derived in laboratory. With the δ¹³C values of 2-methyltetrols, ^OHε_i and meteorological parameters, the δ¹³C values of atmospheric isoprene were calculated. The results show that forests can remarkably change the δ¹³C values of isoprene in the regional scales, making significant contributions to isoprene emissions. Moreover, C₃/C₄ proportions of shrubs and grasses depend on altitudes. The average δ¹³C values of atmospheric isoprene are -24.18 ± 1.72‰, -25.81 ± 1.36‰, -24.96 ± 0.94‰, -25.89 ± 1.35‰ for BM, PZ, GG and WL, respectively. The average δ¹³C value of atmospheric isoprene in SW China and the surrounding areas was -25.23 ± 1.44‰. C₄ plants emitted 26.9 ± 10.3% of isoprene in the research atmosphere.

Comprehensively assessing the drivers of future air quality in California

In this study we analyze the impact of major drivers of future air quality, both separately and simultaneously, for the year 2035 in three major California air basins: the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB), the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), and the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). A variety of scenarios are considered based on changes in climate-driven meteorological conditions and both biogenic and anthropogenic emissions. Anthropogenic emissions are based on (1) the California Air Resources Board (CARB) California Emissions Projection Analysis Model (CEPAM), (2) increases in electric sector emissions due to climate change, and (3) aggressive adoption of alternative energy technologies electrification of end-use technologies, and energy efficiency measures. Results indicate that climate-driven changes in meteorological conditions will significantly alter day-to-day variations in future ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations, likely increasing the frequency and severity of pollution periods in regions that already experience poor air quality and increasing health risks from pollutant exposure. Increases in biogenic and anthropogenic emissions due to climate change are important during the summer seasons, but have little effect on pollutant concentrations during the winter. Results also indicate that controlling anthropogenic emissions will play a critical role in mitigating climate-driven increases in both ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations in the most populated areas of California. In the absence of anthropogenic emissions controls, climate change will worsen ozone air quality throughout the state, increasing exceedances of ambient air quality standards. If planned reductions in anthropogenic emissions are implemented, ozone air quality throughout the less urban areas of the state may be improved in the year 2035, but regions such as the SoCAB and the east SFBA will likely continue to experience high ozone concentrations throughout the summer season. Climate change and anthropogenic emissions controls are both found to decrease wintertime PM_2.5 concentrations in the SJV, eliminating nearly all exceedances of PM_2.5 National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) in the year 2035. However, reductions in anthropogenic emissions are unable to fully mitigate the impact of climate change on PM_2.5 concentrations in the SoCAB and east SFBA. Thus, while future air quality in the SJV is projected to be improved in the year 2035, air quality in the SoCAB and east SFBA will remain similar or marginally worsen compared to present day levels. Conversely, we find that aggressive adoption of alternative energy technologies including renewable resources, electrification of end-use technologies, and energy efficiency measures can offset the impacts of climate change. Overall, the two main drivers for air quality in 2035 are changes in meteorological conditions due to climate change and reductions in anthropogenic emissions.

Comparison of Measurement-Based Methodologies to Apportion Secondary Organic Carbon (SOC) in PM2.5: A Review of Recent Studies

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is known to account for a major fraction of airborne particulate matter, with significant impacts on air quality and climate at the global scale. Despite the substantial amount of research studies achieved during these last decades, the source apportionment of the SOA fraction remains difficult due to the complexity of the physicochemical processes involved. The selection and use of appropriate approaches are a major challenge for the atmospheric science community. Several methodologies are nowadays available to perform quantitative and/or predictive assessments of the SOA amount and composition. This review summarizes the current knowledge on the most commonly used approaches to evaluate secondary organic carbon (SOC) contents: elemental carbon (EC) tracer method, chemical mass balance (CMB), SOA tracer method, radiocarbon (14C) measurement and positive matrix factorization (PMF). The principles, limitations, challenges and good practices of each of these methodologies are discussed in the present article. Based on a comprehensive—although not exhaustive—review of research papers published during the last decade (2006–2016), SOC estimates obtained using these methodologies are also summarized for different regions across the world. Conclusions of some studies which are directly comparing the performances of different methodologies are then specifically discussed. An overall picture of SOC contributions and concentrations obtained worldwide for urban sites under similar conditions (i.e., geographical and seasonal ones) is also proposed here. Finally, further needs to improve SOC apportionment methodologies are also identified and discussed.

Implications of RCP emissions on future concentration and direct radiative forcing of secondary organic aerosol over China

This study applies the nested-grid version of Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to examine future changes (2000-2050) in SOA concentration and associated direct radiative forcing (DRF) over China under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The projected changes in SOA concentrations over 2010-2050 generally follow future changes in emissions of toluene and xylene. On an annual mean basis, the largest increase in SOA over eastern China is simulated to be 25.1% in 2020 under RCP2.6, 20.4% in 2020 under RCP4.5, 56.3% in 2050 under RCP6.0, and 44.6% in 2030 under RCP8.5. The role of SOA in PM_2.5 increases with each decade in 2010-2050 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, with a maximum ratio of concentration of SOA to that of PM_2.5 of 16.3% in 2050 under RCP4.5 as averaged over eastern China (20°-45°N, 100°-125°E). Concentrations of SOA are projected to be able to exceed those of sulfate, ammonium, and black carbon (BC) in the future. The future changes in SOA levels over eastern China are simulated to lead to domain-averaged (20°-45°N, 100°-125°E) DRFs of +0.19 W m^-2, +0.12 W m^-2, - 0.28 W m^-2, and -0.17 W m^-2 in 2050 relative to 2000 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, respectively. Model results indicate that future changes in SOA owing to future changes in anthropogenic precursor emissions are important for future air quality planning and climate mitigation measures.

Monoterpenes are the largest source of summertime organic aerosol in the southeastern United States

The chemical complexity of atmospheric organic aerosol (OA) has caused substantial uncertainties in understanding its origins and environmental impacts. Here, we provide constraints on OA origins through compositional characterization with molecular-level details. Our results suggest that secondary OA (SOA) from monoterpene oxidation accounts for approximately half of summertime fine OA in Centreville, AL, a forested area in the southeastern United States influenced by anthropogenic pollution. We find that different chemical processes involving nitrogen oxides, during days and nights, play a central role in determining the mass of monoterpene SOA produced. These findings elucidate the strong anthropogenic-biogenic interaction affecting ambient aerosol in the southeastern United States and point out the importance of reducing anthropogenic emissions, especially under a changing climate, where biogenic emissions will likely keep increasing.

Characterization of isoprene-derived secondary organic aerosols at a rural site in North China Plain with implications for anthropogenic pollution effects

Isoprene is the most abundant non-methane volatile organic compound (VOC) and the largest contributor to secondary organic aerosol (SOA) burden on a global scale. In order to examine the influence of high concentrations of anthropogenic pollutants on isoprene-derived SOA (SOA_i) formation, summertime PM_2.5 filter samples were collected with a three-hour sampling interval at a rural site in the North China Plain (NCP), and determined for SOA_i tracers and other chemical species. RO₂+NO pathway derived 2-methylglyceric acid presented a relatively higher contribution to the SOA_i due to the high-NOx (~20 ppb) conditions in the NCP that suppressed the reactive uptake of RO₂+HO₂ reaction derived isoprene epoxydiols. Compared to particle acidity and water content, sulfate plays a dominant role in the heterogeneous formation process of SOA_i. Diurnal variation and correlation of 2-methyltetrols with ozone suggested an important effect of isoprene ozonolysis on SOA_i formation. SOA_i increased linearly with levoglucosan during June 10–18, which can be attributed to an increasing emission of isoprene caused by the field burning of wheat straw and a favorable aqueous SOA formation during the aging process of the biomass burning plume. Our results suggested that isoprene oxidation is highly influenced by intensive anthropogenic activities in the NCP.

Causes and consequences of decreasing atmospheric organic aerosol in the United States

Exposure to atmospheric particulate matter (PM) exacerbates respiratory and cardiovascular conditions and is a leading source of premature mortality globally. Organic aerosol contributes a significant fraction of PM in the United States. Here, using surface observations between 1990 and 2012, we show that organic carbon has declined dramatically across the entire United States by 25-50%; accounting for more than 30% of the US-wide decline in PM. The decline is in contrast with the increasing organic aerosol due to wildfires and no clear trend in biogenic emissions. By developing a carbonaceous emissions database for the United States, we show that at least two-thirds of the decline in organic aerosol can be explained by changes in anthropogenic emissions, primarily from vehicle emissions and residential fuel burning. We estimate that the decrease in anthropogenic organic aerosol is responsible for averting 180,000 (117,000-389,000) premature deaths between 1990 and 2012. The unexpected decrease in organic aerosol, likely a consequence of the implementation of Clean Air Act Amendments, results in 84,000 (30,000-164,000) more lives saved than anticipated by the EPA between 2000 and 2010.

The potential effects of climate change on air quality across the conterminous U.S. at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways

The potential impacts of climate change on regional ozone (O3) and fine particulate (PM2.5) air quality in the United States are investigated by linking global climate simulations with regional scale meteorological and chemical transport models. Regional climate at 2000 and at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) is simulated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscale 11-year time slices from the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The downscaled meteorology is then used with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to simulate air quality during each of these 11-year periods. The analysis isolates the future air quality differences arising from climate-driven changes in meteorological parameters and specific natural emissions sources that are strongly influenced by meteorology. Other factors that will affect future air quality, such as anthropogenic air pollutant emissions and chemical boundary conditions, are unchanged across the simulations. The regional climate fields represent historical daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures well, with mean biases less than 2 K for most regions of the U.S. and most seasons of the year and good representation of variability. Precipitation in the central and eastern U.S. is well simulated for the historical period, with seasonal and annual biases generally less than 25%, with positive biases exceeding 25% in the western U.S. throughout the year and in part of the eastern U.S. during summer. Maximum daily 8-h ozone (MDA8 O3) is projected to increase during summer and autumn in the central and eastern U.S. The increase in summer mean MDA8 O3 is largest under RCP8.5, exceeding 4 ppb in some locations, with smaller seasonal mean increases of up to 2 ppb simulated during autumn and changes during spring generally less than 1 ppb. Increases are magnified at the upper end of the O3 distribution, particularly where projected increases in temperature are greater. Annual average PM2.5 concentration changes range from -1.0 to 1.0 μg m-3. Organic PM2.5 concentrations increase during summer and autumn due to increased biogenic emissions. Aerosol nitrate decreases during winter, accompanied by lesser decreases in ammonium and sulfate, due to warmer temperatures causing increased partitioning to the gas phase. Among meteorological factors examined to account for modeled changes in pollution, temperature and isoprene emissions are found to have the largest changes and the greatest impact on O3 concentrations.

The effects of isoprene and NO x on secondary organic aerosols formed through reversible and irreversible uptake to aerosol water

Isoprene oxidation produces water-soluble organic gases capable of partitioning to aerosol liquid water. The formation of secondary organic aerosols through such aqueous pathways (aqSOA) can take place either reversibly or irreversibly; however, the split between these fractions in the atmosphere is highly uncertain. The aim of this study was to characterize the reversibility of aqSOA formed from isoprene at a location in the eastern United States under substantial influence from both anthropogenic and biogenic emissions. The reversible and irreversible uptake of water-soluble organic gases to aerosol water was characterized in Baltimore, Maryland, USA, using measurements of particulate water-soluble organic carbon (WSOCp) in alternating dry and ambient configurations. WSOCp evaporation with drying was observed systematically throughout the late spring and summer, indicating reversible aqSOA formation during these times. We show through time lag analyses that WSOCp concentrations, including the WSOCp that evaporates with drying, peak 6 to 11h after isoprene concentrations, with maxima at a time lag of 9h. The absolute reversible aqSOA concentrations, as well as the relative amount of reversible aqSOA, increased with decreasing NO x /isoprene ratios, suggesting that isoprene epoxydiol (IEPOX) or other low-NO x oxidation products may be responsible for these effects. The observed relationships with NO x and isoprene suggest that this process occurs widely in the atmosphere, and is likely more important in other locations characterized by higher isoprene and/or lower NO x levels. This work underscores the importance of accounting for both reversible and irreversible uptake of isoprene oxidation products to aqueous particles.

Mechanism of SOA formation determines magnitude of radiative effects

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) forms via a variety of processes and plays a key role in climate change and air quality. Recent measurements indicate that most SOA exists as an internal mixture with other aerosols. This study examines the radiative effect of using a mixing state for SOA that depends on the process of formation, based on an explicit mechanism for the chemical production of SOA. The radiative forcing of SOA in the future is estimated using this approach. A surprising result is that the contribution of SOA to radiative forcing increases substantially (becomes more negative) in the future even though the increase of its burden is slight.

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) nearly always exists as an internal mixture, and the distribution of this mixture depends on the formation mechanism of SOA. A model is developed to examine the influence of using an internal mixing state based on the mechanism of formation and to estimate the radiative forcing of SOA in the future. For the present day, 66% of SOA is internally mixed with sulfate, while 34% is internally mixed with primary soot. Compared with using an external mixture, the direct effect of SOA is decreased due to the decrease in total aerosol surface area and the increase of absorption efficiency. Aerosol number concentrations are sharply reduced, and this is responsible for a large decrease in the cloud albedo effect. Internal mixing decreases the radiative effect of SOA by a factor of >4 compared with treating SOA as an external mixture. The future SOA burden increases by 24% due to CO₂ increases and climate change, leading to a total (direct plus cloud albedo) radiative forcing of −0.05 W m⁻². When the combined effects of changes in climate, anthropogenic emissions, and land use are included, the SOA forcing is −0.07 W m⁻², even though the SOA burden only increases by 6.8%. This is caused by the substantial increase of SOA associated with sulfate in the Aitken mode. The Aitken mode increase contributes to the enhancement of first indirect radiative forcing, which dominates the total radiative forcing.

Long-term (2001-2013) observations of water-soluble dicarboxylic acids and related compounds over the western North Pacific: trends, seasonality and source apportionment

To better understand the impact of East Asian pollutants on the molecular composition of marine organic aerosols, we conducted long-term (2001-2013) observations of water-soluble dicarboxylic acids and related compounds in total suspended particulate samples collected at Chichijima Island in the western North Pacific (WNP). Seasonal variations of all the diacids and related compounds showed maxima in winter and spring and minima in summer, except for azelaic acid (C9), which maximized in summer to autumn. The overall annual concentrations of the total diacids, ω-oxoacids and α-dicarbonyls showed an increase during 2001-2013. We found a significant (p < 0.05) decadal increase in the inter-annual trends of pyruvic and glyoxylic (p > 0.05) acids, and methylglyoxal (MeGly). In contrast, phthalic acid (p < 0.05) and glyoxal (Gly) showed a decrease in their trends. We also found a significant decrease in the trend of the Gly/MeGly mass ratios. These results demonstrate that the enhanced concentrations of diacids over the WNP are majorly attributed to the aqueous-phase photooxidation of biogenic volatile organic compounds from East Asia followed by long-range atmospheric transport. Further, positive matrix factorization analysis showed a biogenic photochemical contribution (42%) was the dominant source of oxalic acid in the WNP.

Improving organic aerosol treatments in CESM/CAM5: Development, application, and evaluation

New treatments for organic aerosol (OA) formation have been added to a modified version of the CESM/CAM5 model (CESM-NCSU). These treatments include a volatility basis set treatment for the simulation of primary and secondary organic aerosols (SOAs), a simplified treatment for organic aerosol (OA) formation from glyoxal, and a parameterization representing the impact of new particle formation (NPF) of organic gases and sulfuric acid. With the inclusion of these new treatments, the concentration of oxygenated organic aerosol increases by 0.33 µg m-3 and that of primary organic aerosol (POA) decreases by 0.22 µg m-3 on global average. The decrease in POA leads to a reduction in the OA direct effect, while the increased OOA increases the OA indirect effects. Simulations with the new OA treatments show considerable improvement in simulated SOA, oxygenated organic aerosol (OOA), organic carbon (OC), total carbon (TC), and total organic aerosol (TOA), but degradation in the performance of HOA. In simulations of the current climate period, despite some deviations from observations, CESM-NCSU with the new OA treatments significantly improves the magnitude, spatial pattern, seasonal pattern of OC and TC, as well as, the speciation of TOA between POA and OOA. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the inclusion of the organic NPF treatment impacts the OA indirect effects by enhancing cloud properties. The simulated OA level and its impact on the climate system are most sensitive to choices in the enthalpy of vaporization and wet deposition of SVOCs, indicating that accurate representations of these parameters are critical for accurate OA-climate simulations.

Response of Power Plant Emissions to Ambient Temperature in the Eastern United States

Past studies have established strong connections between meteorology and air quality, via chemistry, transport, and natural emissions. A less understood linkage between weather and air quality is the temperature-dependence of emissions from electricity generating units (EGUs), associated with high electricity demand to support building cooling on hot days. This study quantifies the relationship between ambient surface temperatures and EGU air emissions (CO₂, SO₂, and NO_X) using historical data. We find that EGUs in the Eastern U.S. region from 2007 to 2012 exhibited a 3.87% ± 0.41% increase in electricity generation per °C increase during summer months. This is associated with a 3.35%/°C ± 0.50%/°C increase in SO₂ emissions, a 3.60%/°C ± 0.49%/°C increase in NO_X emissions, and a 3.32%/°C ± 0.36%/°C increase in CO₂ emissions. Sensitivities vary by year and by pollutant, with SO₂ both the highest sensitivity (5.04% in 2012) and lowest sensitivity (2.19% in 2007) in terms of a regional average. Texas displays 2007-2012 sensitivities of 2.34%/°C ± 0.28%/°C for generation, 0.91%/°C ± 0.25%/°C for SO₂ emissions, 2.15%/°C ± 0.29%/°C for NO_X emissions, and 1.78%/°C ± 0.22%/°C for CO₂ emissions. These results suggest demand-side and supply side technological improvements and fuel choice could play an important role in cost-effective reduction of carbon emissions and air pollution.

Enhancement in Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation in the Presence of Preexisting Organic Particle

Atmospheric models of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) typically assume organic species form a well-mixed phase. As a result, partitioning of semivolatile oxidation products into the particle phase to form SOA is thought to be enhanced by preexisting organic particles. In this work, the physicochemical properties that govern such enhancement in SOA yield were examined. SOA yields from α-pinene ozonolysis were measured in the presence of a variety of organic seeds which were chosen based on polarity and phase state at room temperature. Yield enhancement was only observed with seeds of medium polarities (tetraethylene glycol and citric acid). Solid hexadecanol seed was observed to enhance SOA yields only in chamber experiments with longer mixing time scales, suggesting that the mixing process for SOA and hexadecanol may be kinetically limited at shorter time scales. Our observations indicate that, in addition to kinetic limitations, intermolecular interactions also play a significant role in determining SOA yields. Here we propose for the first time to use the Hansen solubility framework to determine aerosol miscibility and predict SOA yield enhancement. These results highlight that current models may overestimate SOA formation, and parametrization of intermolecular forces is needed for accurate predictions of SOA formation.

Spatial and seasonal variations of isoprene secondary organic aerosol in China: Significant impact of biomass burning during winter

Isoprene is a substantial contributor to global secondary organic aerosol (SOA). The formation of isoprene SOA (SOA_I) is highly influenced by anthropogenic emissions. Currently, there is rare information regarding SOA_I in polluted regions. In this study, one-year concurrent observation of SOA_I tracers was undertaken at 12 sites across China for the first time. The tracers formed from the HO₂-channel exhibited higher concentrations at rural sites, while the tracer formed from the NO/NO₂-channel showed higher levels at urban sites. 3-Methyltetrahydrofuran-3,4-diols exhibited linear correlations with their ring-opening products, C₅-alkenetriols. And the slopes were steeper in the southern China than the northern China, indicating stronger ring-opening reactions there. The correlation analysis of SOA_I tracers with the factor determining biogenic emission and the tracer of biomass burning (levoglucosan) implied that the high level of SOA_I during summer was controlled by biogenic emission, while the unexpected increase of SOA_I during winter was largely due to the elevated biomass burning emission. The estimated secondary organic carbon from isoprene (SOC_I) exhibited the highest levels in Southwest China. The significant correlations of SOC_I between paired sites implied the regional impact of SOA_I in China. Our findings implicate that isoprene origins and SOA_I formation are distinctive in polluted regions.

Atmospheric benzenoid emissions from plants rival those from fossil fuels

Despite the known biochemical production of a range of aromatic compounds by plants and the presence of benzenoids in floral scents, the emissions of only a few benzenoid compounds have been reported from the biosphere to the atmosphere. Here, using evidence from measurements at aircraft, ecosystem, tree, branch and leaf scales, with complementary isotopic labeling experiments, we show that vegetation (leaves, flowers, and phytoplankton) emits a wide variety of benzenoid compounds to the atmosphere at substantial rates. Controlled environment experiments show that plants are able to alter their metabolism to produce and release many benzenoids under stress conditions. The functions of these compounds remain unclear but may be related to chemical communication and protection against stress. We estimate the total global secondary organic aerosol potential from biogenic benzenoids to be similar to that from anthropogenic benzenoids (~10 Tg y⁻¹), pointing to the importance of these natural emissions in atmospheric physics and chemistry.

Air quality and climate connections

Multiple linkages connect air quality and climate change. Many air pollutant sources also emit carbon dioxide (CO2), the dominant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG). The two main contributors to non-attainment of U.S. ambient air quality standards, ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM), interact with radiation, forcing climate change. PM warms by absorbing sunlight (e.g., black carbon) or cools by scattering sunlight (e.g., sulfates) and interacts with clouds; these radiative and microphysical interactions can induce changes in precipitation and regional circulation patterns. Climate change is expected to degrade air quality in many polluted regions by changing air pollution meteorology (ventilation and dilution), precipitation and other removal processes, and by triggering some amplifying responses in atmospheric chemistry and in anthropogenic and natural sources. Together, these processes shape distributions and extreme episodes of O3 and PM. Global modeling indicates that as air pollution programs reduce SO2 to meet health and other air quality goals, near-term warming accelerates due to "unmasking" of warming induced by rising CO2. Air pollutant controls on CH4, a potent GHG and precursor to global O3 levels, and on sources with high black carbon (BC) to organic carbon (OC) ratios could offset near-term warming induced by SO2 emission reductions, while reducing global background O3 and regionally high levels of PM. Lowering peak warming requires decreasing atmospheric CO2, which for some source categories would also reduce co-emitted air pollutants or their precursors. Model projections for alternative climate and air quality scenarios indicate a wide range for U.S. surface O3 and fine PM, although regional projections may be confounded by interannual to decadal natural climate variability. Continued implementation of U.S. NOx emission controls guards against rising pollution levels triggered either by climate change or by global emission growth. Improved accuracy and trends in emission inventories are critical for accountability analyses of historical and projected air pollution and climate mitigation policies.

IMPLICATIONS

The expansion of U.S. air pollution policy to protect climate provides an opportunity for joint mitigation, with CH4 a prime target. BC reductions in developing nations would lower the global health burden, and for BC-rich sources (e.g., diesel) may lessen warming. Controls on these emissions could offset near-term warming induced by health-motivated reductions of sulfate (cooling). Wildfires, dust, and other natural PM and O3 sources may increase with climate warming, posing challenges to implementing and attaining air quality standards. Accountability analyses for recent and projected air pollution and climate control strategies should underpin estimated benefits and trade-offs of future policies.

Physical state and acidity of inorganic sulfate can regulate the production of secondary organic material from isoprene photooxidation products

The production of secondary organic material (SOM) by the reactive uptake of isoprene photooxidation products was investigated using partially to wholly neutralized sulfuric acid particles.

Bidirectional exchange of biogenic volatiles with vegetation: emission sources, reactions, breakdown and deposition

Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions are widely modelled as inputs to atmospheric chemistry simulations. However, BVOC may interact with cellular structures and neighbouring leaves in a complex manner during volatile diffusion from the sites of release to leaf boundary layer and during turbulent transport to the atmospheric boundary layer. Furthermore, recent observations demonstrate that the BVOC emissions are bidirectional, and uptake and deposition of BVOC and their oxidation products are the rule rather than the exception. This review summarizes current knowledge of within-leaf reactions of synthesized volatiles with reactive oxygen species (ROS), uptake, deposition and storage of volatiles, and their oxidation products as driven by adsorption on leaf surface and solubilization and enzymatic detoxification inside leaves. The available evidence indicates that because of the reactions with ROS and enzymatic metabolism, the BVOC gross production rates are much larger than previously thought. The degree to which volatiles react within leaves and can be potentially taken up by vegetation depends upon compound reactivity, physicochemical characteristics, as well as upon their participation in leaf metabolism. We argue that future models should be based upon the concept of bidirectional BVOC exchange and consider modification of BVOC sink/source strengths by within-leaf metabolism and storage.

The future of isoprene emission from leaves, canopies and landscapes

Isoprene emission from plants plays a dominant role in atmospheric chemistry. Predicting how isoprene emission may change in the future will help predict changes in atmospheric oxidant, greenhouse gas and secondary organic aerosol concentrations in the future atmosphere. At the leaf-scale, an increase in isoprene emission with increasing temperature is offset by a reduction in isoprene emission rate caused by increased CO₂. At the canopy scale, increased leaf area index in elevated CO₂ can offset the reduction in leaf-scale isoprene emission caused by elevated CO₂. At the landscape scale, a reduction in forest coverage may decrease, while forest fertilization and community composition dynamics are likely to cause an increase in the global isoprene emission rate. Here we review the potential for changes in the isoprene emission rate at all of these scales. When considered together, it is likely that these interacting effects will result in an increase in the emission of the most abundant plant volatile, isoprene, from the biosphere to the atmosphere in the future.

Impact of climate change on mercury concentrations and deposition in the eastern United States

The global-regional climate-air pollution modeling system (GRE-CAPS) was applied over the eastern United States to study the impact of climate change on the concentration and deposition of atmospheric mercury. Summer and winter periods (300 days for each) were simulated, and the present-day model predictions (2000s) were compared to the future ones (2050s) assuming constant emissions. Climate change affects Hg(2+) concentrations in both periods. On average, atmospheric Hg(2+) levels are predicted to increase in the future by 3% in summer and 5% in winter respectively due to enhanced oxidation of Hg(0) under higher temperatures. The predicted concentration change of Hg(2+) was found to vary significantly in space due to regional-scale changes in precipitation, ranging from -30% to 30% during summer and -20% to 40% during winter. Particulate mercury, Hg(p) has a similar spatial response to climate change as Hg(2+), while Hg(0) levels are not predicted to change significantly. In both periods, the response of mercury deposition to climate change varies spatially with an average predicted increase of 6% during summer and 4% during winter. During summer, deposition increases are predicted mostly in the western parts of the domain while mercury deposition is predicted to decrease in the Northeast and also in many areas in the Midwest and Southeast. During winter mercury deposition is predicted to change from -30% to 50% mainly due to the changes in rainfall and the corresponding changes in wet deposition.

A model of plant isoprene emission based on available reducing power captures responses to atmospheric CO₂

We present a unifying model for isoprene emission by photosynthesizing leaves based on the hypothesis that isoprene biosynthesis depends on a balance between the supply of photosynthetic reducing power and the demands of carbon fixation. We compared the predictions from our model, as well as from two other widely used models, with measurements of isoprene emission from leaves of Populus nigra and hybrid aspen (Populus tremula × P. tremuloides) in response to changes in leaf internal CO2 concentration (C(i)) and photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) under diverse ambient CO2 concentrations (C(a)). Our model reproduces the observed changes in isoprene emissions with C(i) and PPFD, and also reproduces the tendency for the fraction of fixed carbon allocated to isoprene to increase with increasing PPFD. It also provides a simple mechanism for the previously unexplained decrease in the quantum efficiency of isoprene emission with increasing C(a). Experimental and modelled results support our hypothesis. Our model can reproduce the key features of the observations and has the potential to improve process-based modelling of isoprene emissions by land vegetation at the ecosystem and global scales.

Impacts of Siberian biomass burning on organic aerosols over the North Pacific Ocean and the Arctic: primary and secondary organic tracers

During the 2003 Chinese Arctic Research Expedition (CHINARE2003) from the Bohai Sea to the high Arctic (37°N-80°N), filter-based particle samples were collected and analyzed for tracers of primary and secondary organic aerosols (SOA) as well as water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC). Biomass burning (BB) tracer levoglucosan had comparatively much higher summertime average levels (476 ± 367 pg/m(3)) during our cruise due to the influence of intense forest fires then in Siberia. On the basis of 5-day back trajectories, samples with air masses passing through Siberia had organic tracers 1.3-4.4 times of those with air masses transporting only over the oceans, suggesting substantial contribution of continental emissions to organic aerosols in the marine atmosphere. SOA tracers from anthropogenic aromatics were negligible or not detected, while those from biogenic terpenenoids were ubiquitously observed with the sum of SOA tracers from isoprene (623 ± 414 pg/m(3)) 1 order of magnitude higher than that from monoterpenes (63 ± 49 pg/m(3)). 2-Methylglyceric acid as a product of isoprene oxidation under high-NOx conditions was dominant among SOA tracers, implying that these BSOA tracers were not formed over the oceans but mainly transported from the adjacent Siberia where a high-NOx environment could be induced by intense forest fires. The carbon fractions shared by biogenic SOA tracers and levoglucosan in WSOC in our ocean samples were 1-2 orders of magnitude lower than those previously reported in continental samples, BB emissions or chamber simulation samples, largely due to the chemical evolution of organic tracers during transport. As a result of the much faster decline in levels of organic tracers than that of WSOC during transport, the trace-based approach, which could well reconstruct WSOC using biogenic SOA and BB tracers for continental samples, only explained ∼4% of measured WSOC during our expedition if the same tracer-WSOC or tracer-SOC relationships were applied.

A new atmospherically relevant oxidant of sulphur dioxide

Atmospheric oxidation is a key phenomenon that connects atmospheric chemistry with globally challenging environmental issues, such as climate change, stratospheric ozone loss, acidification of soils and water, and health effects of air quality. Ozone, the hydroxyl radical and the nitrate radical are generally considered to be the dominant oxidants that initiate the removal of trace gases, including pollutants, from the atmosphere. Here we present atmospheric observations from a boreal forest region in Finland, supported by laboratory experiments and theoretical considerations, that allow us to identify another compound, probably a stabilized Criegee intermediate (a carbonyl oxide with two free-radical sites) or its derivative, which has a significant capacity to oxidize sulphur dioxide and potentially other trace gases. This compound probably enhances the reactivity of the atmosphere, particularly with regard to the production of sulphuric acid, and consequently atmospheric aerosol formation. Our findings suggest that this new atmospherically relevant oxidation route is important relative to oxidation by the hydroxyl radical, at least at moderate concentrations of that radical. We also find that the oxidation chemistry of this compound seems to be tightly linked to the presence of alkenes of biogenic origin.

Considering the air quality impacts of bioenergy crop production: a case study involving Arundo donax

The expanding production of bioenergy crops may impact regional air quality through the production of volatile organic compounds such as isoprene. To investigate the effects of isoprene-emitting crops on air quality, specifically ozone (O(3)) and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation, we performed a series of model runs using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) coupled with the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) simulating a proposed cropland conversion to the giant cane Arundo donax for biomass production. Cultivation of A. donax in the relatively clean air of northeastern Oregon resulted in an average increase in 8 h O(3) levels of 0.52 ppb, while SOA was largely unaffected (<+0.01 μg m(-3)). Conversions in U.S. regions with reduced air quality (eastern Texas and northern Illinois) resulted in average 8 h O(3) increases of 2.46 and 3.97 ppb, respectively, with daily increases up to 15 ppb in the Illinois case, and daytime SOA increases up to 0.57 μg m(-3). While cultivation of isoprene-emitting bioenergy crops may be appropriate at some scales and in some regions, other areas may experience increased O(3) and SOA, highlighting the need to consider isoprene emissions when evaluating potential regional impacts of bioenergy crop production.

Global air quality and climate

Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH(4)), ozone precursors (O(3)), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O(3) precursor CH(4) would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH(4) and tropospheric O(3). Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) emissions, which increase tropospheric O(3) (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH(4) (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH(4) volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O(3) and CH(4). Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O(3) and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O(3) and SOA.

Nitrogen-containing organic compounds and oligomers in secondary organic aerosol formed by photooxidation of isoprene

Electrospray ionization high-resolution mass spectrometry (ESI HR-MS) was used to probe molecular structures of oligomers in secondary organic aerosol (SOA) generated in laboratory experiments on isoprene photooxidation at low- and high-NO(x) conditions. Approximately 80-90% of the observed products are oligomers and up to 33% by number are nitrogen-containing organic compounds (NOC). We observe oligomers with maximum 8 monomer units in length. Tandem mass spectrometry (MS(n)) confirms NOC compounds are organic nitrates and elucidates plausible chemical building blocks contributing to oligomer formation. Most organic nitrates are comprised of methylglyceric acid units. Other important multifunctional C(2)-C(5) monomer units are identified including methylglyoxal, hydroxyacetone, hydroxyacetic acid, and glycolaldehyde. Although the molar fraction of NOC in the high-NO(x) SOA is high, the majority of the NOC oligomers contain only one nitrate moiety resulting in a low average N:C ratio of 0.019. Average O:C ratios of the detected SOA compounds are 0.54 under the low-NO(x) conditions and 0.83 under the high-NO(x) conditions. Our results underscore the importance of isoprene photooxidation as a source of NOC in organic particulate matter.

Photochemical modeling of the Ozark isoprene volcano: MEGAN, BEIS, and their impacts on air quality predictions

Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) contribute substantially to atmospheric carbon, exerting influence on air quality and climate. Two widely used models, the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) and the Biogenic Emission Inventory System (BEIS) are employed to generate emissions for application in the CMAQ air quality model. Predictions of isoprene, monoterpenes, ozone, formaldehyde, and secondary organic carbon (SOC) are compared to surface and aloft measurements made during an intensive study in the Ozarks, a large isoprene emitting region. MEGAN and BEIS predict spatially similar emissions but magnitudes differ. The total VOC reactivity of the emissions, as developed for the CB05 gas-phase chemical mechanism, is a factor of 2 different between the models. Isoprene estimates by CMAQ-MEGAN are higher and more variable than surface and aloft measurements, whereas CMAQ-BEIS predictions are lower. CMAQ ozone predictions are similar and compare well with measurements using either MEGAN or BEIS. However, CMAQ-MEGAN overpredicts formaldehyde. CMAQ-BEIS SOC predictions are lower than observational estimates for every sample. CMAQ-MEGAN underpredicts SOC ∼ 80% of the time, despite overprediction of precursor VOCs. CMAQ-MEGAN isoprene predictions improve when prognostically predicted solar radiation is replaced with the GEWEX satellite product. CMAQ-BEIS does not exhibit similar photosensitivity.