The global and regional air quality impacts of dietary change

Air pollution increases cardiovascular and respiratory-disease risk, and reduces cognitive and physical performance. Food production, especially of animal products, is a major source of methane and ammonia emissions which contribute to air pollution through the formation of particulate matter and ground-level ozone. Here we show that dietary changes towards more plant-based flexitarian, vegetarian, and vegan diets could lead to meaningful reductions in air pollution with health and economic benefits. Using systems models, we estimated reductions in premature mortality of 108,000-236,000 (3-6%) globally, including 20,000-44,000 (9-21%) in Europe, 14,000-21,000 (12-18%) in North America, and 49,000-121,000 (4-10%) in Eastern Asia. We also estimated greater productivity, increasing economic output by USD 0.6-1.3 trillion (0.5-1.1%). Our findings suggest that incentivising dietary changes towards more plant-based diets could be a valuable mitigation strategy for reducing ambient air pollution and the associated health and economic impacts, especially in regions with intensive agriculture and high population density.

Marginal Damage of Methane Emissions: Ozone Impacts on Agriculture

Methane directly contributes to air pollution, as an ozone precursor, and to climate change, generating physical and economic damages to different systems, namely agriculture, vegetation, energy, human health, or biodiversity. The methane-related damages to climate, measured as the Social Cost of Methane, and to human health have been analyzed by different studies and considered by government rulemaking in the last decades, but the ozone-related damages to crop revenues associated to methane emissions have not been incorporated to policy agenda. Using a combination of the Global Change Analysis Model and the TM5-FASST Scenario Screening Tool, we estimate that global marginal agricultural damages range from ~423 to 556 $2010/t-CH4, of which 98 $2010/t-CH4 occur in the USA, which is the most affected region due to its role as a major crop producer, followed by China, EU-15, and India. These damages would represent 39-59% of the climate damages and 28-64% of the human health damages associated with methane emissions by previous studies. The marginal damages to crop revenues calculated in this study complement the damages from methane to climate and human health, and provides valuable information to be considered in future cost-benefits analyses.

Assessing the Impact of Local Policies on PM2.5 Concentration Levels: Application to 10 European Cities

In this paper, we propose a methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of local emission reduction policies on PM2.5 concentration levels. In particular, we look at the impact of emission reduction policies at different scales (from urban to EU scale) on different PM2.5 baseline concentration levels. The methodology, based on a post-processing of air quality model simulations, is applied to 10 cities in Europe to understand on which sources local actions are effective to improve air quality, and over which concentration ranges. The results show that local actions are effective on low-level concentrations in some cities (e.g., Rome), whereas in other cases, policies are more effective on high-level concentrations (e.g., Krakow). This means that, in specific geographical areas, a coordinated approach (among cities or even at different administration levels) would be needed to significantly improve air quality. At last, we show that the effectiveness of local actions on urban air pollution is highly city-dependent.

Estimation of methane emission from an urban wastewater treatment plant applying inverse Gaussian model

The methane (CH₄) emissions from urban sources are increasing, and they depend on the processes and technologies applied in each one. Thus, studying them individually to quantify their emissions and understand their behavior to design CH₄ mitigation strategies is meaningful. Although many studies have been carried out in different cities worldwide, the complex methodologies and technologies applied are not readily available in developing countries. The main objective of this work is to apply a simple and inexpensive methodology to collect air samples in urban areas using syringes with a three-way stopcock. Considering the baseline concentration in different urban zones, the WWTP contribution to atmospheric CH₄ concentration was assessed. Moreover, it was possible to estimate the CH₄ emission rate from the source by applying the inverse Gaussian model. The atmospheric CH₄ concentrations inside and around the WWTP varied from 2.04 to 32.78 ppm. Most of the highest concentrations were found inside the WWTP; however, high concentrations were found up to 500 m from its center. The values in the urban zones were between 2.06 and 3.52 ppm, consistently higher in the area with the highest population density. Finally, considering the WWTP as a single source and according to the operational and atmospheric conditions during the studied period, the mean CH₄ emission rate from this source was 2.08E + 04 μg s^-1. The proposed sampling methodology could be applied to estimate CH₄ emission rates from fixed sources in areas with overlapping sources.

Methane removal and the proportional reductions in surface temperature and ozone

Mitigating climate change requires a diverse portfolio of technologies and approaches, including negative emissions or removal of greenhouse gases. Previous literature focuses primarily on carbon dioxide removal, but methane removal may be an important complement to future efforts. Methane removal has at least two key benefits: reducing temperature more rapidly than carbon dioxide removal and improving air quality by reducing surface ozone concentration. While some removal technologies are being developed, modelling of their impacts is limited. Here, we conduct the first simulations using a methane emissions-driven Earth System Model to quantify the climate and air quality co-benefits of methane removal, including different rates and timings of removal. We define a novel metric, the effective cumulative removal, and use it to show that each effective petagram of methane removed causes a mean global surface temperature reduction of 0.21 ± 0.04°C and a mean global surface ozone reduction of 1.0 ± 0.2 parts per billion. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of methane removal in delaying warming thresholds and reducing peak temperatures, and also allow for direct comparisons between the impacts of methane and carbon dioxide removal that could guide future research and climate policy. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 1)'.

Reducing Planetary Health Risks Through Short-Lived Climate Forcer Mitigation

Global air pollution and climate change are major threats to planetary health. These threats are strongly linked through the short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs); ozone (O3), aerosols, and methane (CH4). Understanding the impacts of ambitious SLCF mitigation in different source emission sectors on planetary health indicators can help prioritize international air pollution control strategies. A global Earth system model is applied to quantify the impacts of idealized 50% sustained reductions in year 2005 emissions in the eight largest global anthropogenic source sectors on the SLCFs and three indicators of planetary health: global mean surface air temperature change (∆GSAT), avoided PM2.5-related premature mortalities and gross primary productivity (GPP). The model represents fully coupled atmospheric chemistry, aerosols, land ecosystems and climate, and includes dynamic CH4. Avoided global warming is modest, with largest impacts from 50% cuts in domestic (-0.085 K), agriculture (-0.034 K), and waste/landfill (-0.033 K). The 50% cuts in energy, domestic, and agriculture sector emissions offer the largest opportunities to mitigate global PM2.5-related health risk at around 5%-7% each. Such small global impacts underline the challenges ahead in achieving the World Health Organization aspirational goal of a 2/3 reduction in the number of deaths from air pollution by 2030. Uncertainty due to natural climate variability in PM2.5 is an important underplayed dimension in global health risk assessment that can vastly exceed uncertainty due to the concentration-response functions at the large regional scale. Globally, cuts to agriculture and domestic sector emissions are the most attractive targets to achieve climate and health co-benefits through SLCF mitigation.

Characterizing anthropogenic methane sources in the Houston and Barnett Shale areas of Texas using the isotopic signature δ13C in CH4

Methane (CH₄) is an important greenhouse gas with its mixing ratio increasing in the global atmosphere. Identifying fingerprints of CH₄ emissions is critical to understanding potential impacts of various anthropogenic sources in the Greater Houston area (GHA) and extensive natural gas operations in the Barnett Shale area (BSA) of Texas. Stable carbon isotope ratios of CH₄ (δ¹³C_CH4) has been proposed to be a useful technique for differentiating individual CH₄ sources. Measurements of CH₄ mixing ratios and δ¹³C_CH4 were sampled using a mobile laboratory equipped with cavity ring-down spectrometers (CRDS). Areal CH₄ distributions and the background δ¹³C_CH4 signature were obtained from filtered ambient signals; -47.0‰ (GHA) and - 48.5‰ (BSA) were calculated. The fingerprint of thirty-three anthropogenic sources in the two study areas were sampled with forty-four δ¹³C analyses conducted. Repeated measurements indicated the natural variation of δ¹³C_CH4 signatures of individual CH₄ sources. An unexpected massive CH₄ fugitive leak was detected near the San Jacinto River Fleet site in Houston exhibiting an δ¹³C_CH4 value around -42‰. Our results and findings demonstrate the utility of δ¹³C_CH4for facilitating emission inventories and atmospheric modeling.

Pressure-dependent sensitivity of a single-pass methane detection system using a continuous-wave distributed feedback laser at 3270 nm

A single-pass, compact, and low-power-consumption methane sensing system is presented, and its sensitivity is examined for a set of reference cells with pressures of 7.4, 74, and 740 Torr and the same methane concentration at laboratory temperature of 23°C. A GaSb-based continuous-wave distributed feedback tunable diode laser at 3270 nm and wavelength modulation spectroscopy were employed to collect 2f spectra in the ν₃, R₃ band of CH₄12. The collected 2f spectra were fitted to a modulated Voigt line profile model. An Allan-Werle variance analysis shows that the best detectivity, 4 ppbm, is obtained for the highest pressure cell. At pressures of 74 and 7.4 Torr the detectivities are 16 and 28 ppbm, respectively. For these low-pressure cells, further sensitivity improvements were achieved using a large modulation depth (m>2.2) at the expense of spectral resolution.

Natural Gas Fugitive Leak Detection Using an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle: Measurement System Description and Mass Balance Approach

Natural gas is an abundant resource across the United States, of which methane (CH4) is the main component. About 2% of extracted CH4 is lost through leaks. The Remote Methane Leak Detector (RMLD)-Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) system was developed to investigate natural gas fugitive leaks in this study. The system is composed of three major technologies: miniaturized RMLD (mini-RMLD) based on Backscatter Tunable Diode Laser Absorption Spectroscopy (TDLAS), an autonomous quadrotor UAV and simplified quantification and localization algorithms. With a miniaturized, downward-facing RMLD on a small UAV, the system measures the column-integrated CH4 mixing ratio and can semi-autonomously monitor CH4 leakage from sites associated with natural gas production, providing an advanced capability in detecting leaks at hard-to-access sites compared to traditional manual methods. Automated leak characterization algorithms combined with a wireless data link implement real-time leak quantification and reporting. This study placed particular emphasis on the RMLD-UAV system description and the quantification algorithm development based on a mass balance approach. Early data were gathered to test the prototype system and to evaluate the algorithm performance. The quantification algorithm derived in this study tended to underestimate the gas leak rates and yielded unreliable estimations in detecting leaks under 7 × 10 − 6 m3/s (~1 Standard Cubic Feet per Hour (SCFH)). Zero-leak cases can be ascertained via a skewness indicator, which is unique and promising. The influence of the systematic error was investigated by introducing simulated noises, of which Global Positioning System (GPS) noise presented the greatest impact on leak rate errors. The correlation between estimated leak rates and wind conditions were investigated, and steady winds with higher wind speeds were preferred to get better leak rate estimations, which was accurate to approximately 50% during several field trials. High precision coordinate information from the GPS, accurate wind measurements and preferred wind conditions, appropriate flight strategy and the relative steady survey height of the system are the crucial factors to optimize the leak rate estimations.

Assessing a low-cost methane sensor quantification system for use in complex rural and urban environments

Low-cost sensors have the potential to facilitate the exploration of air quality issues on new temporal and spatial scales. Here we evaluate a low-cost sensor quantification system for methane through its use in two different deployments. The first was a one-month deployment along the Colorado Front Range and included sites near active oil and gas operations in the Denver-Julesberg basin. The second deployment was in an urban Los Angeles neighborhood, subject to complex mixtures of air pollution sources including oil operations. Given its role as a potent greenhouse gas, new low-cost methods for detecting and monitoring methane may aid in protecting human and environmental health. In this paper, we assess a number of linear calibration models used to convert raw sensor signals into ppm concentration values. We also examine different choices that can be made during calibration and data processing, and explore cross-sensitivities that impact this sensor type. The results illustrate the accuracy of the Figaro TGS 2600 sensor when methane is quantified from raw signals using the techniques described. The results also demonstrate the value of these tools for examining air quality trends and events on small spatial and temporal scales as well as their ability to characterize an area - highlighting their potential to provide preliminary data that can inform more targeted measurements or supplement existing monitoring networks.

Scientific assessment of background ozone over the U.S.: Implications for air quality management

Ozone (O3) is a key air pollutant that is produced from precursor emissions and has adverse impacts on human health and ecosystems. In the U.S., the Clean Air Act (CAA) regulates O3 levels to protect public health and welfare, but unraveling the origins of surface O3 is complicated by the presence of contributions from multiple sources including background sources like stratospheric transport, wildfies, biogenic precursors, and international anthropogenic pollution, in addition to U.S. anthropogenic sources. In this report, we consider more than 100 published studies and assess current knowledge on the spatial and temporal distribution, trends, and sources of background O3 over the continental U.S., and evaluate how it inflattainment of the air quality standards. We conclude that spring and summer seasonal mean U.S. background O3 (USB O3), or O3 formed from natural sources plus anthropogenic sources in countries outside the U.S., is greatest at high elevation locations in the western U.S., with monthly mean maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) mole fractions approaching 50 parts per billion (ppb) and annual 4th highest MDA8s exceeding 60 ppb, at some locations. At lower elevation sites, e.g., along the West and East Coasts, seasonal mean MDA8 USB O3 is in the range of 20-40 ppb, with generally smaller contributions on the highest O3 days. The uncertainty in U.S. background O3 is around ±10 ppb for seasonal mean values and higher for individual days. Noncontrollable O3 sources, such as stratospheric intrusions or precursors from wildfires, can make significant contributions to O3 on some days, but it is challenging to quantify accurately these contributions. We recommend enhanced routine observations, focused fi studies, process-oriented modeling studies, and greater emphasis on the complex photochemistry in smoke plumes as key steps to reduce the uncertainty associated with background O3 in the U.S.

Mitochondria As Sources and Targets of Methane

This review summarizes the current knowledge on the role of mitochondria in the context of hypoxic cell biology, while providing evidence of how these mechanisms are modulated by methane (CH₄). Recent studies have unambiguously confirmed CH₄ bioactivity in various in vitro and in vivo experimental models and established the possibility that CH₄ can affect many aspects of mitochondrial physiology. To date, no specific binding of CH₄ to any enzymes or receptors have been reported, and it is probable that many of its effects are related to physico-chemical properties of the non-polar molecule. (i) Mitochondria themselves can be sources of endogenous CH₄ generation under oxido-reductive stress conditions; chemical inhibition of the mitochondrial electron transport chain with site-specific inhibitors leads to increased formation of CH₄ in eukaryote cells, in plants, and in animals. (ii) Conventionally believed as physiologically inert, studies cited in this review demonstrate that exogenous CH₄ modulates key events of inflammation. The anti-apoptotic effects of exogenously administered CH₄ are also recognized, and these properties also suggest that CH₄-mediated intracellular signaling is closely associated with mitochondria. (iii) Mitochondrial substrate oxidation is coupled with the reduction of molecular oxygen, thus providing energy for cellular metabolism. Interestingly, recent in vivo studies have shown improved basal respiration and modulated mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation by exogenous CH₄. Overall, these data suggest that CH₄ liberation and effectiveness in eukaryotes are both linked to hypoxic events and redox regulation and support the notion that CH₄ has therapeutic roles in mammalian pathophysiologies.

Transient climate and ambient health impacts due to national solid fuel cookstove emissions

Residential solid fuel use contributes to degraded indoor and ambient air quality and may affect global surface temperature. However, the potential for national-scale cookstove intervention programs to mitigate the latter issues is not yet well known, owing to the spatial heterogeneity of aerosol emissions and impacts, along with coemitted species. Here we use a combination of atmospheric modeling, remote sensing, and adjoint sensitivity analysis to individually evaluate consequences of a 20-y linear phase-out of cookstove emissions in each country with greater than 5% of the population using solid fuel for cooking. Emissions reductions in China, India, and Ethiopia contribute to the largest global surface temperature change in 2050 [combined impact of -37 mK (11 mK to -85 mK)], whereas interventions in countries less commonly targeted for cookstove mitigation such as Azerbaijan, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan have the largest per cookstove climate benefits. Abatement in China, India, and Bangladesh contributes to the largest reduction of premature deaths from ambient air pollution, preventing 198,000 (102,000-204,000) of the 260,000 (137,000-268,000) global annual avoided deaths in 2050, whereas again emissions in Ukraine and Azerbaijan have the largest per cookstove impacts, along with Romania. Global cookstove emissions abatement results in an average surface temperature cooling of -77 mK (20 mK to -278 mK) in 2050, which increases to -118 mK (-11 mK to -335 mK) by 2100 due to delayed CO₂ response. Health impacts owing to changes in ambient particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM_2.5) amount to ∼22.5 million premature deaths prevented between 2000 and 2100.

Tropospheric ozone change from 1980 to 2010 dominated by equatorward redistribution of emissions

Since 1980, anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors have decreased in developed regions, but increased in developing regions, particularly East and South Asia, redistributing emissions equatorwards^1-4. Modeling studies have shown that the tropospheric ozone burden (B _O3) is much more sensitive to emission changes in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere (SH) than other regions^5-9. However, the effect of the spatial redistribution of emissions has not been isolated. Here we use a global chemical transport model to consider changes in anthropogenic short-lived emissions from 1980 to 2010, and separate the influence of changes in the spatial distribution of emissions from the total emission increase, on B _O3 and surface ozone. We estimate that the spatial distribution change increased B _O3 by slightly more than the combined influences of changes in the global emission magnitude itself and in global methane. These results are explained by the strong convection, fast reaction rates, and strong NO_x sensitivity in the tropics and subtropics. Emissions increases in Southeast, East, and South Asia may be most important for the B _O3 change. The spatial distribution of emissions has a dominant effect on global tropospheric ozone, suggesting that the future ozone burden will be determined mainly by emissions from the tropics and subtropics.

Methane-rich saline protects against concanavalin A-induced autoimmune hepatitis in mice through anti-inflammatory and anti-oxidative pathways

Methane is a common gas which has been reported to play a protective role in organ injury and presents an anti-inflammatory property. However, its effects on Concanavalin A (Con A)-induced autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) remain unknown. Thus, the aim of this study was to investigate the effects of methane on Con A-induced autoimmune hepatitis in mice and its underlying mechanism. Autoimmune hepatitis was induced by Con A (15 mg/kg) in healthy C57BL/6 mice and methane-rich saline (MS) (20 ml/kg) was intraperitoneally injected 30 min after the challenge with Con A. We found that methane treatment significantly reduced the elevated serum aminotransferase levels and ameliorated liver pathological damage. Furthermore, methane treatment obviously suppressed the secretion of proinflammatory cytokines including tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interferon-γ (IFN-γ), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and interleukin-1β (IL-1β) and increased anti-inflammatory cytokine interleukin-10 (IL-10). Moreover, we found that the levels of malondialdehyde (MDA) and 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG) were highly increased while the activities of superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase (CAT) were decreased in liver with the injection of Con A, which was reversed by methane. Also, the data demonstrated that the phosphorylated IκB, NF-κB and P38 MAPK in liver were significantly down-regulated by methane. These results suggested that methane protected liver against Con A-induced injury through anti-inflammatory and anti-oxidative pathways.

Atmospheric transport of ozone between Southern and Eastern Asia

This study describes the effect of pollution transport between East Asia and South Asia on tropospheric ozone (O3) using model results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP). Ensemble mean O3 concentrations are evaluated against satellite-data and ground observations of surface O3 at four stations in India. Although modeled surface O3 concentrations are 1020ppb higher than those observed, the relative magnitude of the seasonal cycle of O3 is reproduced well. Using 20% reductions in regional anthropogenic emissions, we quantify the seasonal variations in pollution transport between East Asia and South Asia. While there is only a difference of 0.05 to 0.1ppb in the magnitudes of the regional contributions from one region to the other, O3 from East Asian sources affects the most densely populated parts of South Asia while Southern Asian sources only partly affect the populated parts of East Asia. We show that emission changes over East Asia between 2000 and 2010 had a larger impact on populated parts of South Asia than vice versa. This study will help inform future decisions on emission control policy over these regions.

Air quality and climate connections

Multiple linkages connect air quality and climate change. Many air pollutant sources also emit carbon dioxide (CO2), the dominant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG). The two main contributors to non-attainment of U.S. ambient air quality standards, ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM), interact with radiation, forcing climate change. PM warms by absorbing sunlight (e.g., black carbon) or cools by scattering sunlight (e.g., sulfates) and interacts with clouds; these radiative and microphysical interactions can induce changes in precipitation and regional circulation patterns. Climate change is expected to degrade air quality in many polluted regions by changing air pollution meteorology (ventilation and dilution), precipitation and other removal processes, and by triggering some amplifying responses in atmospheric chemistry and in anthropogenic and natural sources. Together, these processes shape distributions and extreme episodes of O3 and PM. Global modeling indicates that as air pollution programs reduce SO2 to meet health and other air quality goals, near-term warming accelerates due to "unmasking" of warming induced by rising CO2. Air pollutant controls on CH4, a potent GHG and precursor to global O3 levels, and on sources with high black carbon (BC) to organic carbon (OC) ratios could offset near-term warming induced by SO2 emission reductions, while reducing global background O3 and regionally high levels of PM. Lowering peak warming requires decreasing atmospheric CO2, which for some source categories would also reduce co-emitted air pollutants or their precursors. Model projections for alternative climate and air quality scenarios indicate a wide range for U.S. surface O3 and fine PM, although regional projections may be confounded by interannual to decadal natural climate variability. Continued implementation of U.S. NOx emission controls guards against rising pollution levels triggered either by climate change or by global emission growth. Improved accuracy and trends in emission inventories are critical for accountability analyses of historical and projected air pollution and climate mitigation policies.

IMPLICATIONS

The expansion of U.S. air pollution policy to protect climate provides an opportunity for joint mitigation, with CH4 a prime target. BC reductions in developing nations would lower the global health burden, and for BC-rich sources (e.g., diesel) may lessen warming. Controls on these emissions could offset near-term warming induced by health-motivated reductions of sulfate (cooling). Wildfires, dust, and other natural PM and O3 sources may increase with climate warming, posing challenges to implementing and attaining air quality standards. Accountability analyses for recent and projected air pollution and climate control strategies should underpin estimated benefits and trade-offs of future policies.

Estimation of future PM2.5- and ozone-related mortality over the continental United States in a changing climate: An application of high-resolution dynamical downscaling technique

This paper evaluates the PM2.5- and ozone-related mortality at present (2000s) and in the future (2050s) over the continental United States by using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP-CE). Atmospheric chemical fields are simulated by WRF/CMAQ (horizontal resolution: 12×12 km), applying the dynamical downscaling technique from global climate-chemistry model under the Representative Concentration Pathways scenario (RCP 8.5). Future air quality results predict that the annual mean PM2.5 concentration in continental U.S. decreases nationwide, especially in the Eastern U.S. and west coast. However, the ozone concentration is projected to decrease in the Eastern U.S. but increase in the Western U.S. Future mortality is evaluated under two scenarios (1) holding future population and baseline incidence rate at the present level and (2) using the projected baseline incidence rate and population in 2050. For PM2.5, the entire continental U.S. presents a decreasing trend of PM2.5-related mortality by the 2050s in Scenario (1), primarily resulting from the emissions reduction. While in Scenario (2), almost half of the continental states show a rising tendency of PM2.5-related mortality, due to the dominant influence of population growth. In particular, the highest PM2.5-related deaths and the biggest discrepancy between present and future PM2.5-related deaths both occur in California in 2050s. For the ozone-related premature mortality, the simulation shows nation-wide rising tendency in 2050s under both scenarios, mainly due to the increase of ozone concentration and population in the future. Furthermore, the uncertainty analysis shows that the confidence interval of all causes mortality is much larger than that for specific causes, probably due to the accumulated uncertainty of generating datasets and sample size. The confidence interval of ozone-related all cause premature mortality is narrower than the PM2.5-related all cause mortality, due to its smaller standard deviation of the concentration-mortality response factor.

IMPLICATIONS

The health impact of PM2.5 is more linearly proportional to the emission reductions than ozone. The reduction of anthropogenic PM2.5 precursor emissions is likely to lead to the decrease of PM2.5 concentrations and PM2.5 related mortality. However, the future ozone concentrations could increase due to increase of the greenhouse gas emissions of methane. Thus, to reduce the impact of ozone related mortality, anthropogenic emissions including criteria pollutant and greenhouse gas (i.e. methane) need to be controlled.

Effects of elevated ozone concentration on CH4 and N2O emission from paddy soil under fully open-air field conditions

We investigated the effects of elevated ozone concentration (E-O3) on CH4 and N2O emission from paddies with two rice cultivars: an inbred Indica cultivar Yangdao 6 (YD6) and a hybrid one II-you 084 (IIY084), under fully open-air field conditions in China. A mean 26.7% enhancement of ozone concentration above the ambient level (A-O3) significantly reduced CH4 emission at tillering and flowering stages leading to a reduction of seasonal integral CH4 emission by 29.6% on average across the two cultivars. The reduced CH4 emission is associated with O3-induced reduction in the whole-plant biomass (-13.2%), root biomass (-34.7%), and maximum tiller number (-10.3%), all of which curbed the carbon supply for belowground CH4 production and its release from submerged soil to atmosphere. Although no significant difference was detected between the cultivars in the CH4 emission response to E-O3, a larger decrease in CH4 emission with IIY084 (-33.2%) than that with YD6 (-7.0%) was observed at tillering stage, which may be due to the larger reduction in tiller number in IIY084 by E-O3. Additionally, E-O3 reduced seasonal mean NOx flux by 5.7% and 11.8% with IIY084 and YD6, respectively, but the effects were not significant statistically. We found that the relative response of CH4 emission to E-O3 was not significantly different from those reported in open-top chamber experiments. This study has thus confirmed that increasing ozone concentration would mitigate the global warming potential of CH4 and suggested consideration of the feedback mechanism between ozone and its precursor emission into the projection of future ozone effects on terrestrial ecosystem.

Increasing global agricultural production by reducing ozone damages via methane emission controls and ozone-resistant cultivar selection

Meeting the projected 50% increase in global grain demand by 2030 without further environmental degradation poses a major challenge for agricultural production. Because surface ozone (O3 ) has a significant negative impact on crop yields, one way to increase future production is to reduce O3 -induced agricultural losses. We present two strategies whereby O3 damage to crops may be reduced. We first examine the potential benefits of an O3 mitigation strategy motivated by climate change goals: gradual emission reductions of methane (CH4 ), an important greenhouse gas and tropospheric O3 precursor that has not yet been targeted for O3 pollution abatement. Our second strategy focuses on adapting crops to O3 exposure by selecting cultivars with demonstrated O3 resistance. We find that the CH4 reductions considered would increase global production of soybean, maize, and wheat by 23-102 Mt in 2030 - the equivalent of a ~2-8% increase in year 2000 production worth $3.5-15 billion worldwide (USD2000 ), increasing the cost effectiveness of this CH4 mitigation policy. Choosing crop varieties with O3 resistance (relative to median-sensitivity cultivars) could improve global agricultural production in 2030 by over 140 Mt, the equivalent of a 12% increase in 2000 production worth ~$22 billion. Benefits are dominated by improvements for wheat in South Asia, where O3 -induced crop losses would otherwise be severe. Combining the two strategies generates benefits that are less than fully additive, given the nature of O3 effects on crops. Our results demonstrate the significant potential to sustainably improve global agricultural production by decreasing O3 -induced reductions in crop yields.

Global air quality and climate

Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH(4)), ozone precursors (O(3)), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O(3) precursor CH(4) would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH(4) and tropospheric O(3). Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) emissions, which increase tropospheric O(3) (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH(4) (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH(4) volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O(3) and CH(4). Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O(3) and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O(3) and SOA.

Uncertainties in climate assessment for the case of aviation NO

Nitrogen oxides emitted from aircraft engines alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, perturbing the greenhouse gases methane (CH(4)) and ozone (O(3)). We quantify uncertainties in radiative forcing (RF) due to short-lived increases in O(3), long-lived decreases in CH(4) and O(3), and their net effect, using the ensemble of published models and a factor decomposition of each forcing. The decomposition captures major features of the ensemble, and also shows which processes drive the total uncertainty in several climate metrics. Aviation-specific factors drive most of the uncertainty for the short-lived O(3) and long-lived CH(4) RFs, but a nonaviation factor dominates for long-lived O(3). The model ensemble shows strong anticorrelation between the short-lived and long-lived RF perturbations (R(2)=0.87). Uncertainty in the net RF is highly sensitive to this correlation. We reproduce the correlation and ensemble spread in one model, showing that processes controlling the background tropospheric abundance of nitrogen oxides are likely responsible for the modeling uncertainty in climate impacts from aviation.

Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century

Aviation emissions contribute to the radiative forcing (RF) of climate. Of importance are emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO _x ), aerosols and their precursors (soot and sulphate), and increased cloudiness in the form of persistent linear contrails and induced-cirrus cloudiness. The recent Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) quantified aviation's RF contribution for 2005 based upon 2000 operations data. Aviation has grown strongly over the past years, despite world-changing events in the early 2000s; the average annual passenger traffic growth rate was 5.3% yr^-1 between 2000 and 2007, resulting in an increase of passenger traffic of 38%. Presented here are updated values of aviation RF for 2005 based upon new operations data that show an increase in traffic of 22.5%, fuel use of 8.4% and total aviation RF of 14% (excluding induced-cirrus enhancement) over the period 2000-2005. The lack of physical process models and adequate observational data for aviation-induced cirrus effects limit confidence in quantifying their RF contribution. Total aviation RF (excluding induced cirrus) in 2005 was ∼55 mW m^-2 (23-87 mW m^-2, 90% likelihood range), which was 3.5% (range 1.3-10%, 90% likelihood range) of total anthropogenic forcing. Including estimates for aviation-induced cirrus RF increases the total aviation RF in 2005-78 mW m^-2 (38-139 mW m^-2, 90% likelihood range), which represents 4.9% of total anthropogenic forcing (2-14%, 90% likelihood range). Future scenarios of aviation emissions for 2050 that are consistent with IPCC SRES A1 and B2 scenario assumptions have been presented that show an increase of fuel usage by factors of 2.7-3.9 over 2000. Simplified calculations of total aviation RF in 2050 indicate increases by factors of 3.0-4.0 over the 2000 value, representing 4-4.7% of total RF (excluding induced cirrus). An examination of a range of future technological options shows that substantive reductions in aviation fuel usage are possible only with the introduction of radical technologies. Incorporation of aviation into an emissions trading system offers the potential for overall (i.e., beyond the aviation sector) CO₂ emissions reductions. Proposals exist for introduction of such a system at a European level, but no agreement has been reached at a global level.

U.S. ozone air quality under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions

We examined future ozone (O3) air quality in the United States (U.S.) under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions worldwide by performing global climate-chemistry simulations, utilizing various combinations of present (1990s) and future (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 2050s) climates, and present and future (2050s; IPCC SRES A2 and B1) anthropogenic emissions. The A2 climate scenario is employed here because it lies at the upper extreme of projected climate change for the 21st century. To examine the sensitivity of U.S. O3 to regional emissions increases (decreases), the IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios, which have overall higher and lower O3-precursor emissions for the U.S., respectively, have been chosen. We find that climate change, by itself, significantly worsens the severity and frequency of high-O3 events ("episodes") over most locations in the U.S., with relatively small changes in average O3 air quality. These high-O3 increases due to climate change alone will erode moderately the gains made under a U.S. emissions reduction scenario (e.g., B1). The effect of climate change on high- and average-O3 increases with anthropogenic emissions. Insofar as average O3 air quality is concerned, changes in U.S. anthropogenic emissions will play the most important role in attaining (or not) near-term U.S. O3 air quality standards. However, policy makers must plan appropriately for O3 background increases due to projected increases in global CH4 abundance and non-U.S. anthropogenic emissions, as well as potential local enhancements that they could cause. These findings provide strong incentives for more-than-planned emissions reductions at locations that are currently O3-nonattainment.