Evapotranspiration responses to CO2 and its driving mechanisms in four ecosystems based on CMIP6 simulations: Forest, shrub, farm and grass

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an essential process of the water cycle through which water is transferred from terrestrial ecosystems to atmosphere. However, in the climate context of increasing CO₂ concentration (also called as a CO₂-enriched climate), the variation of ET and its main drivers among different ecosystems remain unclear. This study analyzed the output data of the CMCC ESM2 model with a ridge regression method, and proposed the trends and drivers of ET in different ecosystems in a CO₂-enriched climate. In particular, the temporal - spatial characteristics of ET and its primary drivers for different periods and wetness levels were revealed. With the rising of CO₂ concentration, the atmospheric evapotranspiration demand increases, and the vegetation grows more luxuriantly. ET shows an overall upward trend, especially in the shrub ecosystems (7.41 mm decade^-1). Our results show that the thermal conditions are the main driving factors for humid forest and shrub ecosystems whereas relative humidity (RH) is the main driving factor for arid farm and grass ecosystems. In terms of the average contribution in all periods, surface solar radiation contributes 26% and 41% to ET variation in forest and shrub ecosystems, and RH contributes 49% and 32% to ET variation in farm and grass ecosystems, respectively. Notably, with the increase of wetness levels, the contribution of water conditions on ET becomes smaller, while that of thermal conditions becomes larger. Correlation analysis shows that LAI impacts on ET are regulated by environmental factors, which reflects the complexity of ET change mechanism. Overall, these findings further provide a reference for rational planning of ecosystems and efficient utilization of water resources.

Evapotranspiration of an Abandoned Grassland in the Italian Alps: Influence of Local Topography, Intra- and Inter-Annual Variability and Environmental Drivers

Evapotranspiration is a key variable of the hydrological cycle but poorly studied in Alpine ecosystems. The current study aimed to characterise the impact of topography and temporal variability on actual evapotranspiration (ETa) and its environmental drivers at an Alpine abandoned grassland encroached by shrubs on a steep slope. Eddy covariance, meteorological, hydrological and soil data were analysed over four growing seasons, of which two had wet and two dry conditions. The topography caused a systematic morning inflexion of ETa in all growing seasons, reflecting the valley wind system. Inter-annual differences of ETa exceeded 100 mm, and ETa means and cumulative values were significantly different between wet and dry growing seasons in the four years. Besides, ETa had a larger temporal variability in wet growing seasons. A bimodality of ETa was found in all years, caused by the onset of plant activity in the morning hours. Energy- and water-limited ETa periods were identified by comparing ETa to potential evapotranspiration (ETo). Periods of fifteen days revealed the main intra- and inter-annual differences of the environmental variables (air temperature, vapour pressure deficit—VPD, precipitation and ETa). The fixed effects of a linear mixed model based on ETa drivers explained 56% of ETa variance. The most important ETa drivers were net radiation and VPD, followed by wind speed. In growing seasons characterised by dry conditions, air temperature and the ground heat flux at the surface (either both or one of them) influenced ETa as well. The current study contributed to the understanding of topographical and temporal effects on evapotranspiration and other micrometeorological variables in an Alpine ecosystem still rarely studied.

Comparing Evapotranspiration Estimates from the GEOframe-Prospero Model with Penman–Monteith and Priestley-Taylor Approaches under Different Climate Conditions

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key variable in the hydrological cycle and it directly impacts the surface balance and its accurate assessment is essential for a correct water management. ET is difficult to measure, since the existing methods for its direct estimate, such as the weighing lysimeter or the eddy-covariance system, are often expensive and require well-trained research personnel. To overcome this limit, different authors developed experimental models for indirect estimation of ET. However, since the accuracy of ET prediction is crucial from different points of view, the continuous search for more and more precise modeling approaches is encouraged. In light of this, the aim of the present work is to test the efficiency in predicting ET fluxes in a newly introduced physical-based model, named Prospero, which is based on the ability to compute the ET using a multi-layer canopy model, solving the energy balance both for the sunlight and shadow vegetation, extending the recently developed Schymanski and Or method to canopy level. Additionally, Prospero is able to compute the actual ET using a Jarvis-like model. The model is integrated as a component in the hydrological modelling system GEOframe. Its estimates were validated against observed data from five Eddy covariance (EC) sites with different climatic conditions and the same vegetation cover. Then, its performances were compared with those of two already consolidated models, the Priestley–Taylor model and Penman FAO model, using four goodness-of-fit indices. Subsequently a calibration of the three methods has been carried out using LUCA calibration within GEOframe, with the purpose of prediction errors. The results showed that Prospero is more accurate and precise with respect to the other two models, even if no calibrations were performed, with better performances in dry climatic conditions. In addition, Prospero model turned to be the least affected by the calibration procedure and, therefore, it can be effectively also used in a context of data scarcity.

Modelling Actual Evapotranspiration Seasonal Variability by Meteorological Data-Based Models

This study aims at illustrating a methodology for predicting monthly scale actual evapotranspiration losses only based on meteorological data, which mimics the evapotranspiration intra-annual dynamic. For this purpose, micrometeorological data at the Rollesbroich and Bondone mountain sites, which are energy-limited systems, and the Sister site, a water-limited system, have been analyzed. Based on an observed intra-annual transition between dry and wet states governed by a threshold value of net radiation at each site, an approach that couples meteorological data-based potential evapotranspiration and actual evapotranspiration relationships has been proposed and validated against eddy covariance measurements, and further compared to two well-known actual evapotranspiration prediction models, namely the advection-aridity and the antecedent precipitation index models. The threshold approach improves the intra-annual actual evapotranspiration variability prediction, particularly during the wet state periods, and especially concerning the Sister site, where errors are almost four times smaller compared to the basic models. To further improve the prediction within the dry state periods, a calibration of the Priestley-Taylor advection coefficient was necessary. This led to an error reduction of about 80% in the case of the Sister site, of about 30% in the case of Rollesbroich, and close to 60% in the case of Bondone Mountain. For cases with a lack of measured data of net radiation and soil heat fluxes, which are essential for the implementation of the models, an application derived from empirical relationships is discussed. In addition, the study assessed whether this variation from meteorological data worsened the prediction performances of the models.

Contrasting Temperature and Precipitation Patterns of Trees in Different Seasons and Responses of Infrared Canopy Temperature in Two Asian Subtropical Forests

Canopy temperature (Tc), one of the most important plant ecophysiological parameters, has been known to respond rapidly to environmental change. However, how environmental factors—especially the temperature and precipitation pattern—impact Tc has been less discussed for forest stands. In this study, we investigated seasonal variations and responses of the Tc and canopy-to-air temperature difference (ΔT) associated with environmental conditions in two subtropical forests with contrasting temperature and precipitation patterns—Dinghushan (DHS) (temperature and precipitation synchronous site: hot and wet in the summer) and Qianyanzhou (QYZ) (temperature and precipitation asynchronous site: hot and arid in the summer). The results showed that Tc exhibits clear diurnal and seasonal variations above air temperature throughout the day and year, suggesting that the canopy of both DHS and QYZ is typically warmer than ambient air. However, the canopy-warming effect was substantially intensified in QYZ, and the difference of ΔT between dry and wet seasons was small (−0.07 °C) in DHS, while it was up to 0.9 °C in QYZ. Regression analysis revealed that this resulted from the combined effects of the increased solar radiation and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), but reduced canopy conductance (gc) caused by drought in the summer in QYZ. Sensitivity analysis further indicated that the responses of ΔT to VPD and gc changes were quite divergent, presenting negative responses to the enhanced VPD and gc in QYZ, while there were positive responses in DHS. The high productivity coupled with low transpiration cooling that occurs in a temperature and precipitation synchronous condition mainly contributes to the positive responses of ΔT in DHS. This study reveals the seasonal variations, environmental responses, and underlying causes of Tc under different temperature and precipitation patterns, providing useful information for the regional assessment of plant responses to future climate change.

Evapotranspiration and its Components in the Nile River Basin Based on Long-Term Satellite Assimilation Product

Actual evapotranspiration (ET) and its individual components’ contributions to the water–energy nexus provide insights into our hydrological cycle in a changing climate. Based on long-term satellite ET data assimilated by the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM), we analyzed changes in ET and its components over the Nile River Basin from 1980 to 2014. The results show a multi-year mean ET of 518 mm·year–1. The long-term ET trend showed a decline at a rate of 18.8 mm·year–10. ET and its components showed strong seasonality and the ET components’ contribution to total ET varied in space and time. ET and its components decreased in humid regions, which was related to precipitation deficits. ET increases in arid-semiarid regions were due to water availability from crop irrigation fields in the Nile Plain. Precipitation was the dominant limiting driver of ET in the region. Vegetation transpiration (an average of 78.1% of total ET) dominated the basin’s water fluxes, suggesting biological fluxes play a role in the regional water cycle’s response to climate change. This analysis furthers our understanding of the water dynamics in the region and may significantly improve our knowledge of future hydrological modelling.

Determinants of the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration

A widely used approach for estimating actual evapotranspiration (AET) in hydrological and earth system models is to constrain potential evapotranspiration (PET) with a single empirical stress factor (Ω = AET/PET). Ω represents the water availability and is fundamentally linked to canopy-atmosphere coupling. However, the mean and seasonal variability of Ω in the models have rarely been evaluated against observations, and the model performances for different climates and biomes remain unclear. In this study, we first derived the observed Ω from 28 FLUXNET sites over North America during 2000-2007, which was then used to evaluate Ω in six large-scale model-based datasets. Our results confirm the importance of incorporating canopy height in the formulation of aerodynamic conductance in the case of forests. Furthermore, leaf area index (LAI) is central to the prediction of Ω and can be quantitatively linked to the partitioning between transpiration and soil evaporation (R²  = 0.43). The substantial differences between observed and model-based Ω in forests (range: 0.2~0.9) are highly related to the way these models estimated PET and the way they represented the responses of Ω to the environmental drivers, especially wind speed and LAI. This is the first assessment of Ω in models based on in situ observations. Our findings demonstrate that the observed Ω is useful for evaluating, validating, and optimizing the modeling of AET and thus of water and energy balances.

Impact of the Revisit of Thermal Infrared Remote Sensing Observations on Evapotranspiration Uncertainty—A Sensitivity Study Using AmeriFlux Data

Thermal infrared remote sensing observations have been widely used to provide useful information on surface energy and water stress for estimating evapotranspiration (ET). However, the revisit time of current high spatial resolution (<100 m) thermal infrared remote sensing systems, sixteen days for Landsat for example, can be insufficient to reliably derive ET information for water resources management. We used in situ ET measurements from multiple Ameriflux sites to (1) evaluate different scaling methods that are commonly used to derive daytime ET estimates from time-of-day observations; and (2) quantify the impact of different revisit times on ET estimates at monthly and seasonal time scales. The scaling method based on a constant evaporative ratio between ET and the top-of-atmosphere solar radiation provided slightly better results than methods using the available energy, the surface solar radiation or the potential ET as scaling reference fluxes. On average, revisit time periods of 2, 4, 8 and 16 days resulted in ET uncertainties of 0.37, 0.55, 0.73 and 0.90 mm per day in summer, which represented 13%, 19%, 23% and 31% of the monthly average ET calculated using the one-day revisit dataset. The capability of a system to capture rapid changes in ET was significantly reduced for return periods higher than eight days. The impact of the revisit on ET depended mainly on the land cover type and seasonal climate, and was higher over areas with high ET. We did not observe significant and systematic differences between the impacts of the revisit on monthly ET estimates that are based on morning or afternoon observations. We found that four-day revisit scenarios provided a significant improvement in temporal sampling to monitor surface ET reducing by around 40% the uncertainty of ET products derived from a 16-day revisit system, such as Landsat for instance.

A comprehensive analysis of interseasonal and interannual energy and water balance dynamics in semiarid shrubland and forest ecosystems

Accurate estimation of ecosystem-scale land surface energy and water balance has great importance in weather and climate studies. This paper summarizes seasonal and interannual fluctuations of energy and water balance components in two distinctive semiarid ecosystems, sagebrush (SB) and lodgepole pine (LP) in the Snake River basin of Idaho. This study includes 6 years (2011-2016) of eddy covariance (EC) along with modeled estimates. An analysis of the energy balance indicated a higher energy balance ratio (0.88) for SB than for LP (0.86). The inclusion of canopy storage (C_S) increased the association between turbulent fluxes and available energy in LP. Green vegetation fraction (GVF) significantly controlled evapotranspiration (ET) and surface energy partitioning when available energy and soil moisture were not limited. Seasonal water balance in the Budyko framework showed severe water-limited conditions in SB (6-9 months) compared to LP (6-7 months). Based on the validated Noah land surface model estimates, direct soil evaporation (E_Soil) is the main component of ET (62 to 79%) in SB due to a large proportion of bare soil (60%), whereas at the lodgepole pine site, it was transpiration (E_Tran, 42-52%). A complementary ratio (CR) analysis on ET and potential ET (PET) showed a strong asymmetric CR in SB, indicating significant advection. Both SG and LP showed strong coupling between soil moisture (SM) and air temperature (T_a). However, a weak coupling was observed in SB when the soil was dry and T_a was high. This weak coupling was due to the presence of net advection. The results presented here have a wider application: to help us understand and predict the survival, productivity, and hydroclimatology of water-limited ecosystems.

The Sensitivity of Land-Atmosphere Coupling to Modern Agriculture in the Northern Midlatitudes

Modern agricultural land cover and management are important as regional climate forcings. Previous work has shown that land cover change can significantly impact key climate variables, including turbulent fluxes, precipitation, and surface temperature. However, fewer studies have investigated how intensive crop management can impact background climate conditions, such as the strength of land-atmosphere coupling and evaporative regime. We conduct sensitivity experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model with modified vegetation characteristics to represent modern crop cover and management, using observed crop-specific leaf area indexes and calendars. We quantify changes in land-atmosphere interactions and climate over intensively cultivated regions situated at transitions between moisture- and energy-limited conditions. Results show that modern intensive agriculture has significant and geographically varying impacts on regional evaporative regimes and background climate conditions. Over the northern Great Plains, modern crop intensity increases the model simulated precipitation and soil moisture, weakening hydrologic coupling by increasing surface water availability and reducing moisture limits on evapotranspiration. In the U.S. Midwest, higher growing season evapotranspiration, coupled with winter and spring rainfall declines, reduces regional soil moisture, while crop albedo changes also reduce net surface radiation. This results overall in reduced dependency of regional surface temperature on latent heat fluxes. In central Asia, a combination of reduced net surface energy and enhanced pre-growing season precipitation amplify the energy-limited evaporative regime. These results highlight the need for improved representations of agriculture in global climate models to better account for regional climate impacts and interactions with other anthropogenic forcings.

Dynamically downscaling predictions for deciduous tree leaf emergence in California under current and future climate

Models that predict the timing of deciduous tree leaf emergence are typically very sensitive to temperature. However, many temperature data products, including those from climate models, have been developed at a very coarse spatial resolution. Such coarse-resolution temperature products can lead to highly biased predictions of leaf emergence. This study investigates how dynamical downscaling of climate models impacts simulations of deciduous tree leaf emergence in California. Models for leaf emergence are forced with temperatures simulated by a general circulation model (GCM) at ~200-km resolution for 1981-2000 and 2031-2050 conditions. GCM simulations are then dynamically downscaled to 32- and 8-km resolution, and leaf emergence is again simulated. For 1981-2000, the regional average leaf emergence date is 30.8 days earlier in 32-km simulations than in ~200-km simulations. Differences between the 32 and 8 km simulations are small and mostly local. The impact of downscaling from 200 to 8 km is ~15 % smaller in 2031-2050 than in 1981-2000, indicating that the impacts of downscaling are unlikely to be stationary.

Evapotranspiration of tropical peat swamp forests

In Southeast Asia, peatland is widely distributed and has accumulated a massive amount of soil carbon, coexisting with peat swamp forest (PSF). The peatland, however, has been rapidly degraded by deforestation, fires, and drainage for the last two decades. Such disturbances change hydrological conditions, typically groundwater level (GWL), and accelerate oxidative peat decomposition. Evapotranspiration (ET) is a major determinant of GWL, whereas information on the ET of PSF is limited. Therefore, we measured ET using the eddy covariance technique for 4-6 years between 2002 and 2009, including El Niño and La Niña events, at three sites in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. The sites were different in disturbance degree: a PSF with little drainage (UF), a heavily drained PSF (DF), and a drained burnt ex-PSF (DB); GWL was significantly lowered at DF, especially in the dry season. The ET showed a clear seasonal variation with a peak in the mid-dry season and a large decrease in the late dry season, mainly following seasonal variation in net radiation (Rn ). The Rn drastically decreased with dense smoke from peat fires in the late dry season. Annual ET forced to close energy balance for 4 years was 1636 ± 53, 1553 ± 117, and 1374 ± 75 mm yr(-1) (mean ± 1 standard deviation), respectively, at UF, DF, and DB. The undrained PSF (UF) had high and rather stable annual ET, independently of El Niño and La Niña events, in comparison with other tropical rainforests. The minimum monthly-mean GWL explained 80% of interannual variation in ET for the forest sites (UF and DF); the positive relationship between ET and GWL indicates that drainage by a canal decreased ET at DF through lowering GWL. In addition, ET was decreased by 16% at DB in comparison with UF chiefly because of vegetation loss through fires.

Divergent phenological response to hydroclimate variability in forested mountain watersheds

Mountain watersheds are primary sources of freshwater, carbon sequestration, and other ecosystem services. There is significant interest in the effects of climate change and variability on these processes over short to long time scales. Much of the impact of hydroclimate variability in forest ecosystems is manifested in vegetation dynamics in space and time. In steep terrain, leaf phenology responds to topoclimate in complex ways, and can produce specific and measurable shifts in landscape forest patterns. The onset of spring is usually delayed at a specific rate with increasing elevation (often called Hopkins' Law; Hopkins, 1918), reflecting the dominant controls of temperature on greenup timing. Contrary with greenup, leaf senescence shows inconsistent trends along elevation gradients. Here, we present mechanisms and an explanation for this variability and its significance for ecosystem patterns and services in response to climate. We use moderate-resolution imaging spectro-radiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data to derive landscape-induced phenological patterns over topoclimate gradients in a humid temperate broadleaf forest in southern Appalachians. These phenological patterns are validated with different sets of field observations. Our data demonstrate that divergent behavior of leaf senescence with elevation is closely related to late growing season hydroclimate variability in temperature and water balance patterns. Specifically, a drier late growing season is associated with earlier leaf senescence at low elevation than at middle elevation. The effect of drought stress on vegetation senescence timing also leads to tighter coupling between growing season length and ecosystem water use estimated from observed precipitation and runoff generation. This study indicates increased late growing season drought may be leading to divergent ecosystem response between high and low elevation forests. Landscape-induced phenological patterns are easily observed over wide areas and may be used as a unique diagnostic for sources of ecosystem vulnerability and sensitivity to hydroclimate change.

Interannual variation of the Bowen ratio in a subtropical coniferous plantation in southeast China, 2003-2012

The interannual variation of the Bowen ratio, through its effect on the warming extent of available energy to the ecosystem land surface air, heavily influences the ecosystem microclimate and affects the hydrological cycle at both regional and global scales. Although the precipitation amount in southeast China is not expected to change greatly as a result of climate change, the precipitation frequency may be altered in the future. We explored the interannual variation of the Bowen ratio and its affecting mechanisms based on eddy covariance measurements in a subtropical plantation in southeast China during 2003-2012. The results indicated that the annual mean Bowen ratio was 0.35 ± 0.06, with a range of 0.29-0.45. The Bowen ratio during the dry season (July-October) positively correlated with the annual Bowen ratio (R(2) = 0.85, p<0.001). The effective precipitation frequency during the dry season, through its positive effect on shallow soil water content, indirectly and negatively affected the annual Bowen ratio. Between 2003 and 2012, the annual Bowen ratio exhibited a marginally significant decreasing trend (p = 0.061), meanwhile the effective precipitation frequency and shallow soil water content during the dry season increased significantly (p<0.001). The annual Bowen ratio may decrease further if the effective precipitation frequency and shallow soil water content during the dry season follow similar trends in the future. The warming effect of available energy to the surface air of our studied plantation may decline with the decreasing annual Bowen ratio.