More enhanced non-growing season methane exchanges under warming on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Uncertainty in methane (CH4) exchanges across wetlands and grasslands in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is projected to increase due to continuous permafrost degradation and asymmetrical seasonal warming. Temperature plays a vital role in regulating CH4 exchange, yet the seasonal patterns of temperature dependencies for CH4 fluxes over the wetlands and grasslands on the QTP remain poorly understood. Here, we demonstrated a stronger warming response of CH4 exchanges during the non-growing season compared to the growing season on the QTP. Analyzing 9745 daily observations and employing four methods -regression fitting of temperature-CH4 flux, temperature dependence calculations, field-based and model-based control experiments-we found that warming intensified CH4 emissions in wetlands and uptakes in grasslands. Specifically, the average reaction intensity in the non-growing season surpasses that in the growing season by 1.89 and 4.80 times, respectively. This stronger warming response of CH4 exchanges during the non-growing season significantly increases the regional CH4 exchange on the QTP. Our research reveals that CH4 exchanges in the QTP have a higher warming sensitivity in non-growing seasons, which meanwhile are dominated by a larger warming rate than the annual average. The combined effects of these two factors will significantly alter the CH4 source/sink on the QTP. Neglecting these impacts would lead to inaccurate estimations of CH4 source/sink over the QTP under climate warming.

Accelerating thermokarst lake changes on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

As significant evidence of ice-rich permafrost degradation due to climate warming, thermokarst lake was developing and undergoing substantial changes. Thermokarst lake was an essential ecosystem component, which significantly impacted the global carbon cycle, hydrology process and the stability of the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor. In this paper, based on Sentinel-2 (2021) and Landsat (1988-2020) images, thermokarst lakes within a 5000 m range along both sides of Qinghai-Tibet Highway were extracted to analyse the spatio-temporal variations. The results showed that the number and area of thermokarst lake in 2021 were 3965 and 4038.6 ha (1 ha = 10,000 m[Formula: see text]), with an average size of 1.0186 ha. Small thermokarst lakes ([Formula: see text]1 ha) accounted for 85.65% of the entire lake count, and large thermokarst lakes ([Formula: see text]10 ha) occupied for 44.92% of the whole lake area. In all sub-regions, the number of small lake far exceeds 75% of the total lake number in each sub-region. R1 sub-region (around Wudaoliang region) had the maximum number density of thermokarst lakes with 0.0071, and R6 sub-region (around Anduo region) had the minimum number density with 0.0032. Thermokarst lakes were mainly distributed within elevation range of 4300 m-5000 m a.s.l. (94.27% and 97.13% of the total number and size), on flat terrain with slopes less than 3[Formula: see text] (99.17% and 98.47% of the total number and surface) and in the north, south, and southeast aspects (51.98% and 50.00% of the total number and area). Thermokarst lakes were significantly developed in warm permafrost region with mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) > - 1.5 [Formula: see text]C, accounting for 47.39% and 54.38% of the total count and coverage, respectively. From 1988 to 2020, in spite of shrinkage or even drain of small portion of thermokarst lake, there was a general expansion trend of thermokarst lake with increase in number of 195 (8.58%) and area of 1160.19 ha (41.36%), which decreased during 1988-1995 (- 702 each year and - 706.27 ha/yr) and then increased during 1995-2020 (184.96-702 each year and 360.82 ha/yr). This significant expansion was attributed to ground ice melting as rising air temperature at a rate of 0.03-0.04 [Formula: see text]C/yr. Followed by the increasing precipitation (1.76-3.07 mm/yr) that accelerated the injection of water into lake.

Effect of permafrost degradation on carbon sequestration of alpine ecosystems

Permafrost degradation profoundly affects carbon storage in alpine ecosystems, and the response characteristics of carbon sequestration are likely to differ at the different stages of permafrost degradation. Furthermore, the sensitivity of different stages of permafrost degradation to climate change is likely to vary. However, related research is lacking so far on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). To investigate these issues, the Shule River headwaters on the northeastern margin of the QTP was selected. We applied InVEST and Noah-MP land surface models in combination with remote sensing and field survey data to reveal the dynamics of different carbon (vegetation carbon, soil organic carbon (SOC), and ecosystem carbon) pools from 2001 to 2020. A space-for-time analysis was used to explore the response characteristics of carbon sequestration along a gradient of permafrost degradation, ranging from lightly degraded permafrost (H-SP) to severely degraded permafrost (U-EUP), and to analyze the sensitivity of the permafrost degradation gradient to climate change. Our results showed that: (1) the sensitivity of mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) to climatic variables in the U-EUP was stronger than that in the H-SP and S-TP, respectively; (2) rising MAGT led to permafrost degradation, but increasing annual precipitation promoted permafrost conservation; (3) vegetation carbon, SOC, and ecosystem carbon had similar spatial distribution patterns, with their storage decreasing from the mountain area to the valley; (4) alpine ecosystems acted as carbon sinks with the rate of 0.34 Mg‧ha-1‧a-1 during 2001-2020, of which vegetation carbon and SOC accumulations accounted for 10.65 % and 89.35 %, respectively; and (5) the effects of permafrost degradation from H-SP to U-EUP on carbon density changed from promotion to inhibition.

Continentality determines warming or cooling impact of heavy rainfall events on permafrost

Permafrost thaw can cause an intensification of climate change through the release of carbon as greenhouse gases. While the effect of air temperature on permafrost thaw is well quantified, the effect of rainfall is highly variable and not well understood. Here, we provide a literature review of studies reporting on effects of rainfall on ground temperatures in permafrost environments and use a numerical model to explore the underlying physical mechanisms under different climatic conditions. Both the evaluated body of literature and the model simulations indicate that continental climates are likely to show a warming of the subsoil and hence increased end of season active layer thickness, while maritime climates tend to respond with a slight cooling effect. This suggests that dry regions with warm summers are prone to more rapid permafrost degradation under increased occurrences of heavy rainfall events in the future, which can potentially accelerate the permafrost carbon feedback.

Icings of the Kunlun Mountains on the Northern Margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Western China: Origins, Hydrology and Distribution

Icing/Aufeis processes are a typical feature of permafrost hydrology in mountainous regions. Regional databases of Aufeis have been compiled since the 2010. In this study, we attempted to create an initial Aufeis database for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) to evaluate the patterns of the icing processes in the arid and high mountain regions at low latitudes. In this article, the icings/Aufeis in the Kunlun Mountains on the northern edge of the QTP were investigated. A total of 65 Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager images for 2017–2020 of the key sites were acquired. Icings occur at elevations of 2500–5400 m a. s. l. More than 1600 Aufeis were identified with a total ice-surface area of 2670 km2. About 88% of these areas are related to a gigantic Aufeis (tarin) field. Artesian aquifers related to the active faults play an important role in feeding the Aufeis in the Kunlun Mountains. About 120 Aufeis fed on glacier-melt have formed in the West Kunlun Mountains. Icing development was found to vary with the order of river channels and more than half of all of the identified Aufeis are located along first- and second-order river channels. The significance of Aufeis at the QTP related to as an indicator of climate change, and a volume of surface and ground waters conserved into Aufeis should take into consideration of river runoff estimation of the region.

Spatial Distribution and Variation Characteristics of Permafrost Temperature in Northeast China

Frozen soil is an important environmental factor in cold regions. Warming climate will increase the risk of permafrost thawing, i.e., accelerated carbon release, reduced super-frozen soil water, intensified desertification and destruction of infrastructure. Based on MOD11A2 and MYD11A2 products of MODIS Terra/Aqua, the distribution and change of surface frost number under the influence of normalized difference vegetation index and forest canopy closure in Northeast China from 2003 to 2019 were produced. From 2012 to 2015, the area of the regions where the surface frost number was higher than 0.5 continued to decrease in Northeast China. Taking 2013 as the time turning point, two periods of changes in the distribution of surface frost number in Northeast China were divided, namely, into 2003–2013 and 2014–2014. The spatial distribution of permafrost temperature is simulated by establishing the numerical relationship between the surface frost number and the annual average ground temperature of permafrost. From 2003 to 2019, the area of permafrost changed from 32.77 × 104 to 27.10 × 104 km2. The distribution characteristics show that the area with permafrost temperature below −4 °C accounts for 0.1%, and below −3.0 °C accounts for 3.45%. The permafrost with lower temperature is mainly distributed in the Greater Khingan Mountains, from the northernmost Mohe to the Aershan in the middle of the ridge. The area where the permafrost temperature ranges from −2 to 0 °C is the largest, accounting for 73.81% of the total area. The distribution of permafrost temperatures in the Greater Khingan Mountains is mainly between −1.5 and −3 °C, while that in the Lesser Khingan Mountains is mainly between −2.0 and 0 °C. The altitude is the main factor controlling the permafrost temperature distributed at high latitudes in Northeast China. This work will provide more detailed basic data for regional research on frozen soil and the environment in Northeast China.

The Zonation of Mountain Frozen Ground under Aspect Adjustment Revealed by Ground-Penetrating Radar Survey—A Case Study of a Small Catchment in the Upper Reaches of the Yellow River, Northeastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Permafrost distribution is of great significance for the study of climate, ecology, hydrology, and infrastructure construction in high-cold mountain regions with complex topography. Therefore, updated high-resolution permafrost distribution mapping is necessary and highly demanded in related fields. This case study conducted in a small catchment in the northeast of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau proposes a new method of using ground-penetrating radar (GPR) to detect the stratigraphic structure, interpret the characteristics of frozen ground, and extract the boundaries of permafrost patches in mountain areas. Thus, an empirical–statistical model of mountain frozen ground zonation, along with aspect (ASP) adjustment, is established based on the results of the GPR data interpretation. The spatial mapping of the frozen ground based on this model is compared with a field survey dataset and two existing permafrost distribution maps, and their consistencies are all higher than 80. In addition, the new map provides more details on the distribution of frozen ground. In this case, the influence of ASP on the distribution of permafrost in mountain areas is revealed: the adjustment of ASP on the lower limit of continuous and discontinuous permafrost is 180–200 m, the difference in the annual mean ground temperature between sunny and shady slopes is up to 1.4–1.6 °C, and the altitude-related temperature variation and uneven distribution of solar radiation in different ASPs comprehensively affect the zonation of mountain frozen ground. This work supplements the traditional theory of mountain permafrost zonation, the results of which are of value to relevant scientific studies and instructive to engineering construction in this region.

Vertical distribution characteristics of soil mercury and its formation mechanism in permafrost regions: A case study of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Continuing permafrost degradation is increasing the risk of mercury (Hg) exposure in the permafrost regions on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), but related studies are still limited, especially the ones on the detailed Hg migration processes in permafrost. The vertical distribution characteristics of soil Hg were investigated in three ecosystems in the Beiluhe area on the QTP, and its influencing factors and formation mechanism were investigated. The results indicate that the total soil mercury (THg) concentration in the Beiluhe area remains at an extremely low level (6.33 ± 2.45 ng/g). In the vertical profile, the THg concentration of the shallow soil layer (0-50 cm) (5.96 ± 2.22 ng/g) is significantly lower than that of the deep layer (50-400 cm) (7.44 ± 2.71 ng/g) (p < 0.05). Within the upper 50 cm, the THg concentration decreases with soil depth, and the peak THg concentration occurs at 100-300 cm on the entire profile. Although the THg concentration is slightly affected by the organic matter in the shallow soil layer, in general, the soil parent material is the dominant factor affecting the THg concentration. Intense weathering results in a low THg concentration in the shallow soil layer because the soil Hg is carried downward with the soil moisture. To a certain depth, the impermeable frozen soil layer intercepts the flow of the soil Hg, and it forms a Hg enrichment layer. This paper presents the distinctive pattern of the soil Hg distribution in the permafrost regions of the QTP.

Phosphorus rather than nitrogen regulates ecosystem carbon dynamics after permafrost thaw

Ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics after permafrost thaw depends on more than just climate change since soil nutrient status may also impact ecosystem C balance. It has been advocated that nitrogen (N) release upon permafrost thaw could promote plant growth and thus offset soil C loss. However, compared with the widely accepted C-N interactions, little is known about the potential role of soil phosphorus (P) availability. We combined 3-year field observations along a thaw sequence (constituted by four thaw stages, i.e., non-collapse and 5, 14, and 22 years since collapse) with an in-situ fertilization experiment (included N and P additions at the level of 10 g N m^-2  year^-1 and 10 g P m^-2  year^-1 ) to evaluate ecosystem C-nutrient interactions upon permafrost thaw. We found that changes in soil P availability rather than N availability played an important role in regulating gross primary productivity and net ecosystem productivity along the thaw sequence. The fertilization experiment confirmed that P addition had stronger effects on plant growth than N addition in this permafrost ecosystem. These two lines of evidence highlight the crucial role of soil P availability in altering the trajectory of permafrost C cycle under climate warming.

Large-scale evidence for microbial response and associated carbon release after permafrost thaw

Permafrost thaw could trigger the release of greenhouse gases through microbial decomposition of the large quantities of carbon (C) stored within frozen soils. However, accurate evaluation of soil C emissions from thawing permafrost is still a big challenge, partly due to our inadequate understanding about the response of microbial communities and their linkage with soil C release upon permafrost thaw. Based on a large-scale permafrost sampling across 24 sites on the Tibetan Plateau, we employed meta-genomic technologies (GeoChip and Illumina MiSeq sequencing) to explore the impacts of permafrost thaw (permafrost samples were incubated for 11 days at 5°C) on microbial taxonomic and functional communities, and then conducted a laboratory incubation to investigate the linkage of microbial taxonomic and functional diversity with soil C release after permafrost thaw. We found that bacterial and fungal α diversity decreased, but functional gene diversity and the normalized relative abundance of C degradation genes increased after permafrost thaw, reflecting the rapid microbial response to permafrost thaw. Moreover, both the microbial taxonomic and functional community structures differed between the thawed permafrost and formerly frozen soils. Furthermore, soil C release rate over five month incubation was associated with microbial functional diversity and C degradation gene abundances. By contrast, neither microbial taxonomic diversity nor community structure exhibited any significant effects on soil C release over the incubation period. These findings demonstrate that permafrost thaw could accelerate C emissions by altering the function potentials of microbial communities rather than taxonomic diversity, highlighting the crucial role of microbial functional genes in mediating the responses of permafrost C cycle to climate warming.

A Review of Hydrological Models Applied in the Permafrost-Dominated Arctic Region

The Arctic region is the most sensitive region to climate change. Hydrological models are fundamental tools for climate change impact assessment. However, due to the extreme weather conditions, specific hydrological process, and data acquisition challenges in the Arctic, it is crucial to select suitable hydrological model(s) for this region. In this paper, a comprehensive review and comparison of different models is conducted based on recently available studies. The functionality, limitations, and suitability of the potential hydrological models for the Arctic hydrological process are analyzed, including: (1) The surface hydrological models Topoflow, DMHS (deterministic modeling hydrological system), HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning), SWAT (soil and water assessment tool), WaSiM (water balance simulation model), ECOMAG (ecological model for applied geophysics), and CRHM (cold regions hydrological model); and (2) the cryo-hydrogeological models ATS (arctic terrestrial simulator), CryoGrid 3, GEOtop, SUTRA-ICE (ice variant of the existing saturated/unsaturated transport model), and PFLOTRAN-ICE (ice variant of the existing massively parallel subsurface flow and reactive transport model). The review finds that Topoflow, HBV, SWAT, ECOMAG, and CRHM are suitable for studying surface hydrology rather than other processes in permafrost environments, whereas DMHS, WaSiM, and the cryo-hydrogeological models have higher capacities for subsurface hydrology, since they take into account the three phase changes of water in the near-surface soil. Of the cryo-hydrogeological models reviewed here, GEOtop, SUTRA-ICE, and PFLOTRAN-ICE are found to be suitable for small-scale catchments, whereas ATS and CryoGrid 3 are potentially suitable for large-scale catchments. Especially, ATS and GEOtop are the first tools that couple surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology. If the accuracy of simulating the active layer dynamics is targeted, DMHS, ATS, GEOtop, and PFLOTRAN-ICE are potential tools compared to the other models. Further, data acquisition is a challenging task for cryo-hydrogeological models due to the complex boundary conditions when compared to the surface hydrological models HBV, SWAT, and CRHM, and the cryo-hydrogeological models are more difficult for non-expert users and more expensive to run compared to other models.

Sensitivity of soil freeze/thaw dynamics to environmental conditions at different spatial scales in the central Tibetan Plateau

An enhanced understanding of environmental controls on soil freeze/thaw (F/T) dynamics at different spatial scales is critical for projecting permafrost responses to future climate conditions. In this study, a 1-D soil thermal model and multi-scale observation networks were used to investigate the sensitivity of soil F/T dynamics in the central Tibetan Plateau (TP) to environmental conditions at local (~10 km)-, medium- (~30 km), and large (~100 km)- scales. Model simulated soil temperature profile generally agrees well with the observations, with root-mean-square errors (RMSE) lower than 1.3 °C and 2.0 °C for two in-situ networks, respectively. Model simulated maximum frozen depths (MFD) closely related to elevation (R² = 0.23, p < 0.01), soil moisture content (R² = 0.25, p < 0.01), and soil organic carbon (SOC) content (R² = 0.18, p < 0.01); however, the impact of SOC on MFD may be due to the close correlation between SOC and soil moisture. The main factors affecting MFD vary with scale. Among the environmental factors examined, topography (especially elevation) is the first-order factor controlling the MFD at the large-scale, indicating the dominance of thermal control. Aspect shows sizeable impacts at the medium-scale, while soil moisture plays an important role at the local-scale. Soil thaw onset shows a close correlation with the examined environmental factors including soil moisture, while freeze onset seems to be influenced more by other factors. Besides the well-known thermal effect, our study highlights the importance of soil moisture in affecting soil F/T dynamics at different scales in the central TP region, and reliable soil moisture products are critical to better project the response of the TP frozen ground to future warming at finer scale.

The Impact of Permafrost Degradation on Lake Changes in the Endorheic Basin on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Lakes on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) have experienced significant changes, especially the prevailing lake expansion since 2000 in the endorheic basin. The influence of permafrost thawing on lake expansion is significant but rarely considered in previous studies. In this study, based on Landsat images and permafrost field data, the spatial-temporal area changes of lakes of more than 5 km2 in the endorheic basin on the QTP during 2000–2017 is examined and the impact of permafrost degradation on lake expansion is discussed. The main results are that permafrost characteristics and its degradation trend have close relationships with lake changes. Lake expansion in the endorheic basin showed a southwest–northeast transition from shrinking to stable to rapidly expanding, which corresponded well with the permafrost distribution from island-discontinuous to seasonally frozen ground to continuous permafrost. A dramatic lake expansion in continuous permafrost showed significant spatial differences; lakes expanded significantly in northern and eastern continuous permafrost with a higher ground ice content but slightly in southern continuous permafrost with a lower ground ice content. This spatial pattern was mainly attributed to the melting of ground ice in shallow permafrost associated with accelerating permafrost degradation. Whereas, some lakes in the southern zones of island-discontinuous permafrost were shrinking, which was mainly because the extended taliks arising from the intensified permafrost degradation have facilitated surface water and suprapermafrost groundwater discharge to subpermafrost groundwater and thereby drained the lakes. Based on observation and simulated data, the melting of ground ice at shallow depths below the permafrost table accounted for 21.2% of the increase in lake volume from 2000 to 2016.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of hydrothermal processes of the active layer on the central and northern Qinghai-Tibet plateau

The spatial and temporal variations of the seasonal freeze-thaw cycles are important in understanding the ecological and hydrological processes and biogeochemical cycle associated with permafrost degradation caused by climate change, although observational data on the soil hydrothermal dynamics within the active layer of the permafrost region at the central and northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) are extremely scarce. In this study, soil temperature and moisture date from 11 observational sites along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway from 2010 to 2014 were used to analyze the freeze-thaw cycles of the active layer. The results revealed that mean annual ground surface temperature (MAGST) and mean annual temperature at the top of permafrost (TTOP) were the most closely related to the onset dates of soil freezing and thawing. The onset dates of soil freezing from bottom to top did not occur earlier than those from top to bottom. The differences between the onset dates of the two freezing directions and the proportion of bottom-up freezing depth increased with decreasing TTOP. The unfrozen water content of the cooling process was always higher than that of the warming process during the freezing stage. The hysteresis effect of the unfrozen water content could also be observed in the field experiment, and the maximum hysteresis levels occurred at their corresponding soil freezing points. Soil organic matter and soil moisture associated with vegetation cover are essential for water-heat exchanges between atmosphere and permafrost beneath active layer. We suggest that a better protected plant ecosystem, helps preserving the underlying permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Climate Change Impacts on Cold Season Runoff in the Headwaters of the Yellow River Considering Frozen Ground Degradation

Climate change has effects on hydrological change in multiple aspects, particularly in the headwaters of the Yellow River (HWYR), which is widely covered by climate-sensitive frozen ground. In this study, the annual runoff was partitioned into four runoff compositions: winter baseflow, snowmelt runoff, rainy season runoff, and recession flow. In addition, the effects of global warming, precipitation change, and frozen ground degradation were considered in long-term variation analyses of the runoff compositions. The moving t-test was employed to detect change points of the hydrometeorological data series from 1961 to 2013, and flow duration curves were used to analyze daily runoff regime change in different periods. It was found that the abrupt change points of cold season runoff, such as recession flow, winter baseflow, and snowmelt runoff, are different from that of the rainy season runoff. The increase in winter baseflow and decrease in snowmelt runoff at the end of 1990s was closely related to global warming. In the 21st century, winter baseflow presented a larger relative increase compared to rainy season runoff. The correlation analyses indicate that winter baseflow and snowmelt runoff are mainly controlled by water-resource-related factors, such as rainy season runoff and the accumulated precipitation in cold season. To analyze the global warming impacts, two runoff coefficients—winter baseflow discharge rate (Rw) and direct snowmelt runoff coefficients (Rs)—were proposed, and their correlation with freezing–thawing indices were analyzed. The increase of Rw is related to the increase in the air temperature thawing index (DDT), but Rs is mainly controlled by the air temperature freezing index (DDF). Meanwhile, the direct snowmelt runoff coefficient (Rs) is significantly and positively correlated to DDF and has decreased at a rate of 0.0011/year since 1980. Under global warming, the direct snowmelt runoff (runoff increment between March to May) of the HWYR could decrease continuously in the future due to the decrease of accumulative snow in cold season and frozen ground degradation. This study provides a better understanding of the long-term runoff characteristic changes in the HWYR.

Single-year thermal regime and inferred permafrost occurrence in the upper Ganglass catchment of the cold-arid Himalaya, Ladakh, India

Cold-arid regions of the trans-Himalaya in the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) is suspected to have a significant area of permafrost. However, information on the ground thermal regime of these permafrost areas is so far not available. This study bridge this knowledge gap by analysing the sub-surface thermal regime of selected sites in the Ganglass catchment, Ladakh range. Near surface ground temperature data recorded during September 2016 to August 2017 using 24-miniature temperature data loggers distributed across 12 plots and covering an elevation range of 4700-5612 m a.s.l. are used in this study. Permafrost characteristics including plausible ranges of thermal offset, active-layer thickness and mean annual ground temperature at 10 m depth were estimated by driving a one-dimensional heat conduction model. Two statistical models were used to map first order estimates of permafrost area in this 15.4 km² catchment. Study suggest permafrost occurrence at all sites above 4900 m a.s.l. with active-layer thickness ranging from 0.1 to 4.2 m and the mean annual ground surface temperature ranging from between -10.0 and -0.85 °C for these sites. MAAT at these sites range from -4.1 to -8.9 °C and the surface offsets vary from -1.1 to 3.9 °C. Estimated thermal offset range from -0.9 to 0 °C. Both statistical models show comparable results and suggest 95% mean permafrost cover in the catchment above 4727 m a.s.l. These results strongly indicate existence of significant permafrost areas across the high elevations of the cold-arid regions of IHR. So far, permafrost processes are not considered for assessing present and future estimates of water and regional climate and as a causative factor for disasters like debris flows and landslides in the region. This study highlight the need for greater research efforts on Himalayan permafrost to have a comprehensive understanding of Himalayan cryosphere.

Evaluation of the rescaled complementary principle in the estimation of evaporation on the Tibetan Plateau

Accurate quantification of the terrestrial water balance can improve our knowledge of regional water cycle changes, and deepen our understanding of evaporation in hydrological cycle and under climate change. However, sparse observation networks on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) prevent the reliable estimates of actual evaporation. Based on the China regional surface Meteorological Feature Dataset (CMFD) and the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) product, we adopted the latest rescaled nonlinear complementary relationship (CR) to calculate the monthly actual evaporation (E) from 1982 to 2015. We analyzed the spatio-temporal variability of the annual E on the entire TP, and explored the main meteorological factors controlling the annual E and the regulation of multiyear average annual E in different vegetation zones from southeast to northwest. Our results indicated that the net radiation (R_n) and E exhibited a favorable agreement with monthly changes of the observed values; and E estimated by the CR explained 79-96% variation of the eddy covariance flux measurements. The multiyear average E was 373.12 mm yr^-1 and displayed similar spatial patterns of decreasing from southeast to northwest with two remote sensing products (GLDAS_VIC, GLEAM_v3.3) and one hydrological model (Budyko). Additionally, based on the Mann-Kendall trend test, there were 21.56% of the TP with significant upward trend of annual E which mainly distributed in the area with dense glaciers. The Nyenchen Tanglha Mountains and Pamirs Plateau area had the most obvious upward trend, with up to over 6 mm yr^-1. In a relative sense, the key meteorological elements which affected annual E on the TP were relative humidity (RH) (r = 0.63) and R_n (r = 0.56).

Magnitude and Drivers of Potential Methane Oxidation and Production across the Tibetan Alpine Permafrost Region

Methane (CH₄) dynamics across permafrost regions is critical in determining the magnitude and direction of permafrost carbon (C)-climate feedback. However, current studies are mainly derived from the Arctic area, with limited evidence from other permafrost regions. By combining large-scale laboratory incubation across 51 sampling sites with machine learning techniques and bootstrap analysis, here, we determined regional patterns and dominant drivers of CH₄ oxidation potential in alpine steppe and meadow (CH₄ sink areas) and CH₄ production potential in swamp meadow (CH₄ source areas) across the Tibetan alpine permafrost region. Our results showed that both CH₄ oxidation potential (in alpine steppe and meadow) and CH₄ production potential (in swamp meadow) exhibited large variability across various sampling sites, with the median value being 8.7, 9.6, and 11.5 ng g^-1 dry soil h^-1, respectively. Our results also revealed that methanotroph abundance and soil moisture were two dominant factors regulating CH₄ oxidation potential, whereas CH₄ production potential was mainly affected by methanogen abundance and the soil organic carbon content, with functional gene abundance acting as the best explaining variable. These results highlight the crucial role of microbes in regulating CH₄ dynamics, which should be considered when predicting the permafrost C cycle under future climate scenarios.

High Spatial Resolution Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Permafrost Thermal Conditions for the Beiluhe Basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Permafrost is degrading on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) due to climate change. Permafrost degradation can result in ecosystem changes and damage to infrastructure. However, we lack baseline data related to permafrost thermal dynamics at a local scale. Here, we model climate change impacts on permafrost from 1986 to 2075 at a high resolution using a numerical model for the Beiluhe basin, which includes representative permafrost environments of the QTP. Ground surface temperatures are derived from air temperature using an n-factor vs Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) relationship. Soil properties are defined by field measurements and ecosystem types. The climate projections are based on long-term observations. The modelled ground temperature (MAGT) and active-layer thickness (ALT) are close to in situ observations. The results show a discontinuous permafrost distribution (61.4%) in the Beiluhe basin at present. For the past 30 years, the permafrost area has decreased rapidly, by a total of 26%. The mean ALT has increased by 0.46 m. For the next 60 years, 8.5–35% of the permafrost area is likely to degrade under different trends of climate warming. The ALT will probably increase by 0.38–0.86 m. The results of this study are useful for developing a deeper understanding of ecosystem change, permafrost development, and infrastructure development on the QTP.

Three-dimensional distribution of permafrost and responses to increasing air temperatures in the head waters of the Yellow River in High Asia

Fine-scale three-dimensional (3D) permafrost distributions at the basin scale are currently lacking. They are needed to monitor climate and ecosystem change and for the maintenance of infrastructure in cold regions. This paper determined the horizontal and vertical distributions of permafrost and its quantitative responses to climate warming in the High Asia region by constructing a quasi-3D model that couples heat transfer and water movement and is forced by spatially-interpolated air temperatures using an elevation-dependent regression method. Four air temperature scenarios were considered: the present state and air temperature increases of 1, 2 and 3 °C. A fine-scale permafrost map was constructed. The map considered taliks and local factors including elevation, slope and aspect, and agreed well with field observations. Permafrost will experience severe degradation with climate warming, with decreases in area of 36% per degree increase in air temperature, increases in the depth-to-permafrost table of 2.67 m per degree increase in air temperature, and increases in 15 m-depth ground temperatures of 1.25 °C per degree increase in air temperature. Permafrost is more vulnerable in and beside river valleys than in high mountains, and on sunny rather than shady slopes. These results provide an effective reference for permafrost prediction and infrastructure and ecosystem management in cold regions affected by global warming.

Quantifying Impacts of Mean Annual Lake Bottom Temperature on Talik Development and Permafrost Degradation below Expanding Thermokarst Lakes on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Variations in thermokarst lake area, lake water depth, lake age, air temperature,permafrost condition, and other environmental variables could have important influences on themean annual lake bottom temperature (MALBT) and thus affect the ground thermal regime andtalik development beneath the lakes through their direct impacts on the MALBT. A lake expandingmodel was employed for examining the impacts of variations in the MALBT on talik developmentand permafrost degradation beneath expanding thermokarst lakes in the Beiluhe Basin on theQinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP). All required boundary and initial conditions and model parameterswere determined based on field measurements. Four simulation cases were conducted withdifferent respective fitting sinusoidal functions of the MALBTs at 3.75 °C, 4.5 °C, 5.25 °C, and 6.0 °C.The simulated results show that for lakes with MALBTs of 3.75 °C, 4.5 °C, 5.25 °C, and 6.0 °C, themaximum thicknesses of bowl-shaped talik below the lakes at year 300 were 27.2 m, 29.6 m, 32.0 m,and 34.4 m; funnel-shaped open taliks formed beneath the lakes at years 451, 411, 382, and 356 afterthe formation of thermokarst lakes, with mean downward thaw rates of 9.1 m/year, 10.2 m/year,11.2 m/year, and 12.0 m/year, respectively. Increases in the MALBT from 3.75 °C to 4.52 °C, 4.25 °Cto 5.25 °C, and 5.25 °C to 6.0 °C respectively resulted in the permafrost with a horizontal distance tolake centerline less than or equal to 45 m thawing completely 36 years, 32 years, and 24 years inadvance, and the maximum ground temperature increases at a depth of 40 m below the lakes at year600 ranged from 2.16 °C to 2.80 °C, 3.57 °C, and 4.09 °C, depending on the MALBT. The groundtemperature increases of more than 0.5 °C at a depth of 40 m in year 600 occurred as far as 74.9 m,87.2 m, 97.8 m, and 106.6 m from the lake centerlines. The simulation results also show that changesin the MALBT almost have no impact on the open talik lateral progress rate, although the minimumdistances from the open talik profile to lake centerlines below the lakes with different MALBTsexhibited substantial differences.

Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Kailash Sacred Landscape of China

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) is an important driver of ecosystem function and services. Thus, LUCC analysis may lay foundation for landscape planning, conservation and management. It is especially true for alpine landscapes, which are more susceptible to climate changes and human activities. However, the information on LUCC in sacred landscape is limited, which will hinder the landscape conservation and development. We chose Kailash Sacred Landscape in China (KSL-China) to investigate the patterns and dynamics of LUCC and the driving forces using remote sensing data and meteorological data from 1990 to 2008. A supervised classification of land use and land cover was established based on field survey. Rangelands presented marked fluctuations due to climatic warming and its induced drought, for example, dramatic decreases were found in high- and medium-cover rangelands over the period 2000–2008. And recession of most glaciers was also observed in the study period. Instead, an increase of anthropogenic activities accelerated intensive alteration of land use, such as conversion of cropland to built-up land. We found that the change of vegetation cover was positively correlated with growing season precipitation (GSP). In addition, vegetation cover was substantially reduced along the pilgrimage routes particularly within 5 km of the routes. The findings of the study suggest that climatic warming and human disturbance are interacted to cause remarkable LUCC. Tourism development was responsible land use change in urban and pilgrimage routes. This study has important implications for landscape conservation and ecosystem management. The reduction of rangeland cover may decrease the rangeland quality and pose pressure for the carrying capacity of rangelands in the KSL-China. With the increasing risk of climate warming, rangeland conservation is imperative. The future development should shift from livestock-focus animal husbandry to service-based ecotourism in the sacred landscape.

Long-Term Trends of Atmospheric CH4 Concentration across China from 2002 to 2016

Spatiotemporal variations of atmospheric CH4 from 2002 to 2016 across China were detected, based on the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) sixth-layer CH4 concentration. The CH4 concentration showed good consistency with the ground measurements of surface CH4 concentration from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) (R2 = 0.83, p < 0.01), indicating that the remotely-sensed CH4 reflected the spatial and temporal variations of surface CH4 concentration. Across China, three hotspots of CH4 concentration were found in northern Xinjiang, the northeast of Inner Mongolia/Heilongjiang, and the Norgay plateau in northwest Sichuan. The CH4 concentration showed obviously seasonal variations, with the maximum CH4 concentration occurring in summer, followed by the autumn, winter, and spring. Furthermore, the CH4 concentration showed significantly increasing trends across China, with the rate of increase ranging from ~0.29 to 0.62 ppb·month−1, which would bring a 0.0019~0.014 mK potential rise in surface temperature response over China. In particular, the most rapidly increasing rates occurred in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau, while relatively low rates occurred in southeast China.

Most of the Northern Hemisphere Permafrost Remains under Climate Change

Degradation of cryospheric components such as arctic sea ice and permafrost may pose a threat to the Earth’s climate system. A rise of 2 °C above pre-industrial global surface temperature is considered to be a risk-level threshold. This study investigates the impacts of global temperature rises of 1.5 °C and 2 °C on the extent of the permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), based on the 17 models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Results show that, when global surface temperature rises by 1.5 °C, the average permafrost extent projected under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios would decrease by 23.58% for RCP2.6 (2027–2036), 24.1% for RCP4.5 (2026–2035) and 25.55% for RCP8.5 (2023–2032). However, uncertainty in the results persists because of distinct discrepancies among the models. When the global surface temperature rises by 2 °C, about one-third of the permafrost would disappear; in other words, most of the NH permafrost would still remain even in the RCP8.5 (2037–2046) scenario. The results of the study highlight that the NH permafrost might be able to stably exist owing to its relatively slow degradation. This outlook gives reason for hope for future maintenance and balance of the cryosphere and climate systems.

Automatic Mapping of Thermokarst Landforms from Remote Sensing Images Using Deep Learning: A Case Study in the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Thawing of ice-rich permafrost causes thermokarst landforms on the ground surface. Obtaining the distribution of thermokarst landforms is a prerequisite for understanding permafrost degradation and carbon exchange at local and regional scales. However, because of their diverse types and characteristics, it is challenging to map thermokarst landforms from remote sensing images. We conducted a case study towards automatically mapping a type of thermokarst landforms (i.e., thermo-erosion gullies) in a local area in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau from high-resolution images by the use of deep learning. In particular, we applied the DeepLab algorithm (based on Convolutional Neural Networks) to a 0.15-m-resolution Digital Orthophoto Map (created using aerial photographs taken by an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle). Here, we document the detailed processing flow with key steps including preparing training data, fine-tuning, inference, and post-processing. Validating against the field measurements and manual digitizing results, we obtained an F1 score of 0.74 (precision is 0.59 and recall is 1.0), showing that the proposed method can effectively map small and irregular thermokarst landforms. It is potentially viable to apply the designed method to mapping diverse thermokarst landforms in a larger area where high-resolution images and training data are available.

Numerical Mapping and Modeling Permafrost Thermal Dynamics across the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor, China Integrated with Remote Sensing

Permafrost thermal conditions across the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor (QTEC) is of growing interest due to infrastructure development. Most modeling of the permafrost thermal regime has been conducted at coarser spatial resolution, which is not suitable for engineering construction in a warming climate. Here we model the spatial permafrost thermal dynamics across the QTEC from the 2010 to the 2060 using the ground thermal model. Soil properties are defined based on field measurements and ecosystem types. The climate forcing datasets are synthesized from MODIS-LST products and the reanalysis product of near-surface air temperature. The climate projections are based on long-term observations of air temperature across the QTEC. The comparison of model results to field measurements demonstrates a satisfactory agreement for the purpose of permafrost thermal modeling. The results indicate a discontinuous permafrost distribution in the QTEC. Mean annual ground temperatures (MAGT) are lowest (<−2.0 °C) for the high mountains. In most upland plains, MAGTs range from −2.0 °C to 0 °C. For high mountains, the average active-layer thickness (ALT) is less than 2.0 m, while the river valley features ALT of more than 4.0 m. For upland plains, the modeled ALTs generally range from 3.0 m to 4.0 m. The simulated results for the future 50 years suggest that 12.0%~20.2% of the permafrost region will be involved in degradation, with an MAGT increase of 0.4 °C~2.3 °C, and the ALT increasing by 0.4 m~7.3 m. The results of this study are useful for the infrastructure development, although there are still several improvements in detailed forcing datasets and a locally realistic model.

Temperature sensitivity of gaseous elemental mercury in the active layer of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau permafrost

Soils represent the single largest mercury (Hg) reservoir in the global environment, indicating that a tiny change of Hg behavior in soil ecosystem could greatly affect the global Hg cycle. Climate warming is strongly altering the structure and functions of permafrost and then would influence the Hg cycle in permafrost soils. However, Hg biogeochemistry in climate-sensitive permafrost is poorly investigated. Here we report a data set of soil Hg (0) concentrations in four different depths of the active layer in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau permafrost. We find that soil Hg (0) concentrations exhibited a strongly positive and exponential relationship with temperature and showed different temperature sensitivity under the frozen and unfrozen condition. We conservatively estimate that temperature increases following latest temperature scenarios of the IPCC could result in up to a 54.9% increase in Hg (0) concentrations in surface permafrost soils by 2100. Combining the simultaneous measurement of air-soil Hg (0) exchange, we find that enhanced Hg (0) concentrations in upper soils could favor Hg (0) emissions from surface soil. Our findings indicate that Hg (0) emission could be stimulated by permafrost thawing in a warmer world.

Thermal regime of warm-dry permafrost in relation to ground surface temperature in the Source Areas of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, SW China

Ecology, hydrology, and natural resources in the source areas of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers (SAYYR) are closely linked to interactions between climate and permafrost. However, a comprehensive study of the interactions is currently hampered by sparsely- and unevenly-distributed monitoring sites and limited field investigations. In this study, the thermal regime of warm-dry permafrost in the SAYYR was systematically analyzed based on extensive data collected during 2010-2016 of air temperature (T_a), ground surface temperature (GST) and ground temperature across a range of areas with contrasting land-surface characteristics. Mean annual T_a (MAAT) and mean annual GST (MAGST) were regionally averaged at -3.19±0.71°C and -0.40±1.26°C. There is a close relationship between GST and T_a (R²=0.8477) as obtained by a linear regression analysis with all available daily averages. The mean annual temperature at the bottom of the active layer (T_TOP) was regionally averaged at -0.72±1.01°C and mostly in the range of -1.0°C and 0°C except at Chalaping (~-2.0°C). Surface offset (MAGST-MAAT) was regionally averaged at 2.54±0.71°C. Thermal offset (T_TOP-MAGST) was regionally averaged at -0.17±0.84°C, which was generally within -0.5°C and 0.5°C. Relatively consistent thermal conductivity between the thawed and frozen states of the soils may be responsible for the small thermal offset. Active layer thickness was generally smaller at Chalaping than that on other parts of the QTP, presumably due to smaller climatic continentality index and the thermal dampening of surface temperature variability under the presence of dense vegetation and thick peaty substrates. We conclude that the accurate mapping of permafrost on the rugged elevational QTP could be potentially obtained by correlating the parameters of GST, thermal offset, and temperature gradient in the shallow permafrost.

No protection of permafrost due to desertification on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Desertification of tundra regions may form an escalating cycle with permafrost degradation where more permafrost thaw leads to continued desertification. This traditional viewpoint has been challenged in recent reports that state desertification protects the underlying permafrost. However, our measurements of soil temperature from nine sites in the Honglianghe River Basin, interior Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, show that desertification can degrade permafrost. If one compares the permafrost temperatures at sites with thin sand covers (e.g. site Yu-7, permafrost temperature of −0.64 °C; site Yu-6, permafrost temperature of −1.15 °C) with that of site Xie-1 (−0.65 °C, with a 120-cm-thick sand cover), the permafrost temperature is not significantly different. It is clear that a thick sand cover does not influence the underlying permafrost temperature. Our observations support traditional geocryological knowledge which states that, under most circumstances, desertification does not protect, but rather degrades, permafrost.

Impact of a thermokarst lake on the soil hydrological properties in permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

The formation of thermokarst lakes can degrade alpine meadow ecosystems through changes in soil water and heat properties, which might have an effect on the regional surface water and groundwater processes. In this study, a typical thermokarst lake was selected in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), and the ecological index (S_L) was used to divide the affected areas into extremely affected, severely affected, medium-affected, lightly affected, and non-affected areas, and soil hydrological properties, including saturated hydraulic conductivity and soil water-holding capacity, were investigated. The results showed that the formation of a thermokarst lake can lead to the degradation of alpine meadows, accompanied by a change in the soil physiochemical and hydrological properties. Specifically, the soil structure turned towards loose soil and the soil nutrients decreased from non-affected areas to severely affected areas, but the soil organic matter and available potassium increased slightly in the extremely affected areas. Soil saturated hydraulic conductivity showed a 1.7- to 4.1-fold increase in the lake-surrounding areas, and the highest value (401.9cmd^-1) was detected in the severely affected area. Soil water-holding capacity decreased gradually during the transition from the non-affected areas to the severely affected areas, but it increased slightly in the extremely affected areas. The principal component analysis showed that the plant biomass was vital to the changes in soil hydrological properties. Thus, the vegetation might serve as a link between the thermokarst lake and soil hydrological properties. In this particular case, it was concluded that the thermokarst lake adversely affected the regional hydrological services in the alpine ecosystem. These results would be useful for describing appropriate hydraulic parameters with the purpose of modeling soil water transportation more accurately in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

The permafrost carbon inventory on the Tibetan Plateau: a new evaluation using deep sediment cores

The permafrost organic carbon (OC) stock is of global significance because of its large pool size and the potential positive feedback to climate warming. However, due to the lack of systematic field observations and appropriate upscaling methodologies, substantial uncertainties exist in the permafrost OC budget, which limits our understanding of the fate of frozen carbon in a warming world. In particular, the lack of comprehensive estimates of OC stocks across alpine permafrost means that current knowledge on this issue remains incomplete. Here, we evaluated the pool size and spatial variations of permafrost OC stock to 3 m depth on the Tibetan Plateau by combining systematic measurements from a substantial number of pedons (i.e. 342 three-metre-deep cores and 177 50-cm-deep pits) with a machine learning technique (i.e. support vector machine, SVM). We also quantified uncertainties in permafrost carbon budget by conducting Monte Carlo simulations. Our results revealed that the combination of systematic measurements with the SVM model allowed spatially explicit estimates to be made. The OC density (OC amount per unit area, OCD) exhibited a decreasing trend from the south-eastern to the north-western plateau, with the exception that OCD in the swamp meadow was substantially higher than that in surrounding regions. Our results also demonstrated that Tibetan permafrost stored a large amount of OC in the top 3 m, with the median OC pool size being 15.31 Pg C (interquartile range: 13.03-17.77 Pg C). 44% of OC occurred in deep layers (i.e. 100-300 cm), close to the proportion observed across the northern circumpolar permafrost region. The large carbon pool size together with significant permafrost thawing suggests a risk of carbon emissions and positive climate feedback across the Tibetan alpine permafrost region.

Considerable methane uptake by alpine grasslands despite the cold climate: in situ measurements on the central Tibetan Plateau, 2008-2013

The uptake of CH4 by aerate soil plays a secondary role in the removal of tropospheric CH4 , but it is still highly uncertain in terms of its magnitude, spatial, and temporal variation. In an attempt to quantify the sink of the vast alpine grasslands (1,400,000 km(2)) of the Tibetan Plateau, we conducted in situ measurements in an alpine steppe (4730 m) and alpine meadow (4900 m) using the static chamber and gas chromatograph method. For the alpine steppe, measurements (2008-2013) suggested that there is large interannual variability in CH4 uptake, ranging from -48.8 to -95.8 μg CH4 m(-2) h(-1) (averaged of -71.5 ± 2.5 μg CH4 m(-2) h(-1)), due to the variability in precipitation seasonality. The seasonal pattern of CH4 uptakes in the form of stronger uptake in the early growing season and weaker uptake in the rainy season closely matched the precipitation seasonality and subsequent soil moisture variation. The relationships between alpine steppe CH4 uptake and soil moisture/temperature are best depicted by a quadratic function and an exponential function (Q10 = 1.67) respectively. Our measurements also showed that the alpine meadow soil (average of -59.2 ± 3.7 μg CH4 m(-2) h(-1)) uptake less CH4 than the alpine steppe and produces a similar seasonal pattern, which is negatively regulated by soil moisture. Our measurements quantified--at values far higher than those estimated by process-based models--that both the alpine steppe and alpine meadow are considerable CH4 sinks, despite the cold weather of this high-altitude area. The consecutive measurements gathered in this study also highlight that precipitation seasonality tends to drive the interannual variation in CH4 uptake, indicating that future study should be done to better characterize how CH4 cycling might feedback to the more extreme climate.

The impacts of climate change and human activities on biogeochemical cycles on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

With a pace of about twice the observed rate of global warming, the temperature on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (Earth's 'third pole') has increased by 0.2 °C per decade over the past 50 years, which results in significant permafrost thawing and glacier retreat. Our review suggested that warming enhanced net primary production and soil respiration, decreased methane (CH(4)) emissions from wetlands and increased CH(4) consumption of meadows, but might increase CH(4) emissions from lakes. Warming-induced permafrost thawing and glaciers melting would also result in substantial emission of old carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and CH(4). Nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emission was not stimulated by warming itself, but might be slightly enhanced by wetting. However, there are many uncertainties in such biogeochemical cycles under climate change. Human activities (e.g. grazing, land cover changes) further modified the biogeochemical cycles and amplified such uncertainties on the plateau. If the projected warming and wetting continues, the future biogeochemical cycles will be more complicated. So facing research in this field is an ongoing challenge of integrating field observations with process-based ecosystem models to predict the impacts of future climate change and human activities at various temporal and spatial scales. To reduce the uncertainties and to improve the precision of the predictions of the impacts of climate change and human activities on biogeochemical cycles, efforts should focus on conducting more field observation studies, integrating data within improved models, and developing new knowledge about coupling among carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus biogeochemical cycles as well as about the role of microbes in these cycles.