Impact of the 2008 M W 7.9 Great Wenchuan earthquake on South China microplate motion

Tectonic plate motions drive the earthquake cycle, as they result in the slow accrual and sudden release of energy along plate boundaries. Steadiness of plate motions over the earthquake cycle is a central tenet of the plate tectonics theory and has long been a main pillar in models of earthquake genesis, or of plate-margins seismic potential inferred from slip-deficit estimates. The advent of geodesy in the geosciences and the availability of multi-year-long series of position measurements permit tracking the motions of tectonic plates from before to after the time of significant seismic events that occur along their margins. Here, we present evidence that large earthquakes are capable of modifying the motions of entire microplates. We use high precision Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series covering the periods 2001-2004 and 2014-2017 to demonstrate that, contrary to the tenet above, the South China microplate motion changed after the 2008 M W 7.9 Great Wenchuan earthquake. The GNSS data and associated uncertainties indicate a plate motion slowdown of up to 20% that is beyond the possible impact of data noise and is thus tectonically meaningful. We use quantitative models of torque balance to show that generating this kinematic change requires a force upon the South China microplate compatible with that imparted by the Great Wenchuan earthquake of 2008. The existence of a kinematic signal linked to the earthquake cycle that impacts an entire microplate might offer an additional, novel perspective to assessing the hazards of earthquake-prone tectonic regions.

Different earthquake nucleation conditions revealed by stress drop and b-value mapping in the northern Chilean subduction zone

Stress drop is an earthquake property indicative for the characteristic relation of slip to fault dimension. It is furthermore affected by fault strength, fault topography, the presence of fluids, rupture size, slip, and velocity. In this article, the stress drop image of an entire subduction zone, namely for the seismically highly active northernmost part of Chile, is combined with mapped b-values and their corresponding magnitude distribution in order to better constrain the conditions under which earthquakes of different provenances may nucleate. The underlying recent earthquake catalog contains over 180,000 events, covering 15 years of seismicity, from which more than 50,000 stress drop estimates were computed. Their spatial average segments the subduction zone into different parts, i.e., average stress drop between seismotectonic areas is different, although this difference is small compared to the natural scatter of stress drop values. By considering stress drop variations, b-value map, magnitude distribution, and thermal models, candidate earthquake nucleation mechanisms are identified which can explain the observed distributions. This is done for two exemplary regions: (1) The plate interface, where principally lower stress drop events are found, while at the same time a high spatial heterogeneity of stress drop values is observed. This indicates relatively smooth or lubricated rupture surfaces, and locally it suggests the existence of alternating regions controlled by strong asperities, weaker material, or creep. (2) The highly active intermediate depth (ID) seismicity region, where the variation of stress drop and b-value point to a gradual change of nucleation mechanism from dehydration embrittlement at the top of the ID cloud, over dehydration driven stress transfer in its central part, to thermal runaway shear mechanisms at its bottom. In both cases, the combination of stress drop and b-value distribution helps to better understand the origin and the differences of the observed seismicity.

Feedback between megathrust earthquake cycle and plate convergence

Over million years, convergence between the Nazca and South America tectonic plates results in Andean orogeny. Over decades/centuries, it fuels the earthquake cycle of the Andean megathrust. It is well recognised that, over the geologically-long term of million years, Andean orogeny feeds back onto plate convergence rates, generating temporal changes documented throughout the Neogene. In contrast, no feedback mechanism operated over the geologically-short term by the earthquake cycle is currently contemplated. In fact, it is commonly assumed that the rates of contemporary convergence, which are accurately measured via geodesy, remain steady during the megathrust earthquake cycle. Here we investigate whether the contemporary Nazca/South America plate motion varies over year-/decade-long periods in response to megathrust stress variations associated with the earthquake cycle. We focus on the decade preceding the three largest and most recent [Formula: see text] earthquakes (2010 [Formula: see text] Maule, 2014 [Formula: see text] Iquique, 2015 [Formula: see text] Illapel), and find slowdowns of both Nazca and South America whole-plate motions that exceed the impact of data uncertainty or noise. We show that the torque variations required upon Nazca and South America to generate the slowdowns are consistent with that arising from the buildup of interseismic stress preceding the earthquakes.

Earthquake source parameters in Zagros region (Iran) from the time-evolutive P-wave displacement

The rupture process of the recent moderate-to-large earthquakes in the Zagros area along the Iran plateau is investigated by analysing the strong motion data provided by the Iranian Building and Housing Research Centre (BHRC). The selected dataset includes the largest and deadliest 2017 Mw 7.3, Iran-Iraq (Ezgeleh) earthquake. The earthquake source parameters (moment magnitude, rupture duration and length, average slip, and static stress drop) are determined using a time-domain, parametric modelling technique based on the time evolution of the P-wave displacement signals. The earthquake source parameters are calculated from simulated triangular moment-rate functions assuming the circular source models for a constant rupture velocity. The anelastic attenuation effect is modelled through the independent frequency-Q parameter ranging from 50 to 200 and accounted for by a post-processing procedure that retrieves the attenuation-corrected, moment-rate triangular shape. Results show that the average static stress-drop with different [Formula: see text], varies between <Δσ>  = 0.9 (0.7-1.2) MPa and <Δσ>  = 1.6 (1.2-2.0) MPa. Overall, in this research, the rupture radius/length empirically scales with the seismic moment with a self-similar, near-constant stress drop of about 1 MPa. Assuming a circular rupture model for the Ezgeleh earthquake, we estimate a moment magnitude of 6.9, rupture duration of 7 s, source radius of 16 km, average slip of about 2 m and static stress drop of 3.4 MPa.

What makes low-frequency earthquakes low frequency

Low-frequency earthquakes, atypical seismic events distinct from regular earthquakes, occur downdip of the seismogenic megathrust where an aseismic rheology dominates the subduction plate boundary. Well situated to provide clues on the slip regime of this unique faulting environment, their distinctive waveforms reflect either an unusual rupture process or unusually strong attenuation in their source zone. We take advantage of the unique geometry of seismicity in the Nankai Trough to isolate the spectral signature of low-frequency earthquakes after correcting for empirically derived attenuation. We observe that low-frequency earthquake spectra are consistent with the classical earthquake model, yet their rupture duration and stress drop are orders of magnitude different from ordinary earthquakes. We conclude their low-frequency nature primarily results from an atypical seismic rupture process rather than near-source attenuation.

Integrated rupture mechanics for slow slip events and earthquakes

Slow slip events occur worldwide and could trigger devastating earthquakes, yet it is still debated whether their moment-duration scaling is linear or cubic and a fundamental model unifying slow and fast earthquakes is still lacking. Here, we show that the rupture propagation of simulated slow and fast earthquakes can be predicted by a newly-developed three-dimensional theory of dynamic fracture mechanics accounting for finite rupture width, an essential ingredient missing in previous theories. The complete spectrum of rupture speeds is controlled by the ratio of fracture energy to energy release rate. Shear stress heterogeneity can produce a cubic scaling on a single fault while effective normal stress variability produces a linear scaling on a population of faults, which reconciles the debated scaling relations. This model provides a new framework to explain how slow slip might lead to earthquakes and opens new avenues for seismic hazard assessment integrating seismological, laboratory and theoretical developments.

On the Patterns and Scaling Properties of the 2021–2022 Arkalochori Earthquake Sequence (Central Crete, Greece) Based on Seismological, Geophysical and Satellite Observations

The 27 September 2021 damaging mainshock (Mw6.0) close to Arkalochori village is the strongest earthquake that was recorded during the instrumental period of seismicity in Central Crete (Greece). The mainshock was preceded by a significant number of foreshocks that lasted nearly four months. Maximum ground subsidence of about 18 cm was estimated from InSAR processing. The aftershock sequence is located in an almost NE-SW direction and divided into two main clusters, the southern and the northern ones. The foreshock activity, the deformation area, and the strongest aftershocks are located within the southern cluster. Based on body-wave travel times, a 3-D velocity model was developed, while using combined space and ground-based geodetic techniques, the co-seismic ground deformation is presented. Moreover, we examined the co-seismic static stress changes with respect to the aftershocks’ spatial distribution during the major events of the foreshocks, the Mw = 6.0 main event as well as the largest aftershock. Both the foreshock and the aftershock sequences obey the scaling law for the frequency-magnitude distribution as derived from the framework of non-extensive statistical physics (NESP). The aftershock production rate decays according to the modified Omori scaling law, exhibiting various Omori regimes due to the generation of secondary aftershock sequences. The analysis of the inter-event time distribution, based on NESP, further indicates asymptotic power-law scaling and long-range correlations among the events. The spatiotemporal evolution of the aftershock sequence indicates triggering by co-seismic stress transfer, while its slow migration towards the outer edges of the area of the aftershocks, related to the logarithm of time, further indicates a possible afterslip.

Cubic-meter scale laboratory fault re-activation experiments to improve the understanding of induced seismicity risks

To understand fluid induced seismicity, we have designed a large-scale laboratory experiment consisting of a one-cubic-meter sandstone with an artificial fault cut and fluid-injection boreholes. The sandstone block is assembled in a true triaxial loading frame and equipped with 38 piezoelectric sensors to locate and characterise acoustic emission events. The differential stress on the artificial fault is increased in stages to bring it towards a critically stressed state. After each stage of differential stress increase, fluids are injected at low pressures through boreholes to test the potential of fault re-activation. In addition, a high-pressure injection was conducted that created a hydraulic fracture from the injection borehole towards the artificial fault. The newly generated fluid pathway resulted in an activation of the complete block through a stick–slip movement. We compare acoustic emission measurements from the laboratory experiment with seismicity observations from the field-scale CO₂ injection at Decatur, Illinois, U.S., and conclude that the existence of fluid pathways plays a decisive role for the potential of induced seismicity.

A strength inversion origin for non-volcanic tremor

Non-volcanic tremor is a particularly enigmatic form of seismic activity. In its most studied subduction zone setting, tremor typically occurs within the plate interface at or near the shallow and deep edges of the interseismically locked zone. Detailed seismic observations have shown that tremor is composed of repeating small low-frequency earthquakes, often accompanied by very-low-frequency earthquakes, all involving shear failure and slip. However, low-frequency earthquakes and very-low-frequency earthquakes within each cluster show nearly constant source durations for all observed magnitudes, which implies characteristic tremor sub-event sources of near-constant size. Here we integrate geological observations and geomechanical lab measurements on heterogeneous rock assemblages representative of the shallow tremor region offshore the Middle America Trench with numerical simulations to demonstrate that these tremor events are consistent with the seismic failure of relatively weaker blocks within a stronger matrix. In these subducting rocks, hydrothermalism has led to a strength-inversion from a weak matrix with relatively stronger blocks to a stronger matrix with embedded relatively weaker blocks. Tremor naturally occurs as the now-weaker blocks fail seismically while their surrounding matrix has not yet reached a state of general seismic failure.

Subduction plate boundaries have enigmatic seismic tremor that is often associated with surges in creep across these boundaries. Here, the authors use multiple approaches to show how blocks of weak rocks in a stronger matrix can explain both the occurrence and characteristics of tremor events.

Earthquake hazard and risk analysis for natural and induced seismicity: towards objective assessments in the face of uncertainty

The fundamental objective of earthquake engineering is to protect lives and livelihoods through the reduction of seismic risk. Directly or indirectly, this generally requires quantification of the risk, for which quantification of the seismic hazard is required as a basic input. Over the last several decades, the practice of seismic hazard analysis has evolved enormously, firstly with the introduction of a rational framework for handling the apparent randomness in earthquake processes, which also enabled risk assessments to consider both the severity and likelihood of earthquake effects. The next major evolutionary step was the identification of epistemic uncertainties related to incomplete knowledge, and the formulation of frameworks for both their quantification and their incorporation into hazard assessments. Despite these advances in the practice of seismic hazard analysis, it is not uncommon for the acceptance of seismic hazard estimates to be hindered by invalid comparisons, resistance to new information that challenges prevailing views, and attachment to previous estimates of the hazard. The challenge of achieving impartial acceptance of seismic hazard and risk estimates becomes even more acute in the case of earthquakes attributed to human activities. A more rational evaluation of seismic hazard and risk due to induced earthquakes may be facilitated by adopting, with appropriate adaptations, the advances in risk quantification and risk mitigation developed for natural seismicity. While such practices may provide an impartial starting point for decision making regarding risk mitigation measures, the most promising avenue to achieve broad societal acceptance of the risks associated with induced earthquakes is through effective regulation, which needs to be transparent, independent, and informed by risk considerations based on both sound seismological science and reliable earthquake engineering.

Earthquake breakdown energy scaling despite constant fracture energy

In the quest to determine fault weakening processes that govern earthquake mechanics, it is common to infer the earthquake breakdown energy from seismological measurements. Breakdown energy is observed to scale with slip, which is often attributed to enhanced fault weakening with continued slip or at high slip rates, possibly caused by flash heating and thermal pressurization. However, seismologically inferred breakdown energy varies by more than six orders of magnitude and is frequently found to be negative-valued. This casts doubts about the common interpretation that breakdown energy is a proxy for the fracture energy, a material property which must be positive-valued and is generally observed to be relatively scale independent. Here, we present a dynamic model that demonstrates that breakdown energy scaling can occur despite constant fracture energy and does not require thermal pressurization or other enhanced weakening. Instead, earthquake breakdown energy scaling occurs simply due to scale-invariant stress drop overshoot, which may be affected more directly by the overall rupture mode – crack-like or pulse-like – rather than from a specific slip-weakening relationship.

Earthquake breakdown energy is commonly interpreted as a proxy for fracture energy but is observed to scale with magnitude. Here the authors show that a scale-independent stress overshoot, as seen in the 3D dynamic earthquake rupture simulations, leads to comparable scaling despite constant fault fracture energy.

Large slip, long duration, and moderate shaking of the Nicaragua 1992 tsunami earthquake caused by low near-trench rock rigidity

Large earthquake ruptures propagating up to areas close to subduction trenches are infrequent, but when they occur, they heavily displace the ocean seafloor originating destructive tsunamis. The current paradigm is that the large seafloor deformation is caused by local factors reducing friction and increasing megathrust fault slip, or prompting the activation of ancillary faults or energy sources. As alternative to site-specific models, it has been proposed that large shallow slip could result from depth-dependent rock rigidity variations. To confront both hypotheses, here, we map elastic rock properties across the rupture zone of the M _S7.0-M _W7.7 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake to estimate a property-compatible finite fault solution. The obtained self-consistent model accounts for trenchward increasing slip, constrains stress drop, and explains key tsunami earthquake characteristics such as long duration, high-frequency depletion, and magnitude discrepancy. The confirmation that these characteristics are all intrinsic attributes of shallow rupture opens new possibilities to improve tsunami hazard assessment.

Resolution and uncertainties in estimates of earthquake stress drop and energy release

Our models and understanding of the dynamics of earthquake rupture are based largely on estimates of earthquake source parameters, such as stress drop and radiated seismic energy. Unfortunately, the measurements, especially those of small and moderate-sized earthquakes (magnitude less than about 5 or 6), are not well resolved, containing significant random and potentially systematic uncertainties. The aim of this review is to provide a context in which to understand the challenges involved in estimating these measurements, and to assess the quality and reliability of reported measurements of earthquake source parameters. I also discuss some of the ways progress is being made towards more reliable parameter measurements. At present, whether the earthquake source is entirely self-similar, or not, and which factors and processes control the physics of the rupture remains, at least in the author's opinion, largely unconstrained. Detailed analysis of the best recorded earthquakes, using the increasing quantity and quality of data available, and methods less dependent on simplistic source models is one approach that may help provide better constraints. This article is part of the theme issue 'Fracture dynamics of solid materials: from particles to the globe'.

Propagation of large earthquakes as self-healing pulses or mild cracks

Observations suggest that mature faults host large earthquakes at much lower levels of stress than their expected static strength^1-11. Potential explanations are that the faults are quasi-statically strong but experience considerable weakening during earthquakes, or that the faults are persistently weak, for example, because of fluid overpressure. Here we use numerical modelling to examine these competing theories for simulated earthquake ruptures that satisfy the well known observations of 1-10 megapascal stress drops and limited heat production. In that regime, quasi-statically strong but dynamically weak faults mainly host relatively sharp, self-healing pulse-like ruptures, with only a small portion of the fault slipping at a given time, whereas persistently weak faults host milder ruptures with more spread-out slip, which are called crack-like ruptures. We find that the sharper self-healing pulses, which exhibit larger dynamic stress changes compared to their static stress changes, result in much larger radiated energy than that inferred teleseismically for megathrust events¹². By contrast, milder crack-like ruptures on persistently weak faults, which produce comparable static and dynamic stress changes, are consistent with the seismological observations. The larger radiated energy of self-healing pulses is similar to the limited regional inferences available for crustal strike-slip faults. Our findings suggest that either large earthquakes rarely propagate as self-healing pulses, with potential differences between tectonic settings, or their radiated energy is substantially underestimated, raising questions about earthquake physics and the expected shaking from large earthquakes.

Localized fluid discharge by tensile cracking during the post-seismic period in subduction zones

It is thought that extensional structures (extensional cracks and normal faults) generated during the post-seismic period create fluid pathways that enhance the drainage of the subducting plate interface, thus reducing the pore pressure and increasing fault strength. However, it remains to be elucidated how much pore fluid pressure decreases by the extension crack formation. Here we examined (i) the pore fluid pressure decrease, and (ii) the degree fault strength recovery by the extension crack formation during the post-seismic period by analyzing extension quartz veins exposed around the Nobeoka Thrust, southwestern Japan. The Nobeoka Trust is an on-land analog of the modern splay fault at shallow depths (~ 8 km) in the Nankai Trough. The poro-elastic model of extensional quartz vein formation indicates that the formation of extensional cracks only releases up to ~ 7–8% of the total pore fluid pressure at ~ 8 km depth. The pore pressure around the Nobeoka Thrust was close to lithostatic pressure during the entire seismic cycle. The estimated effective frictional coefficient along the Nobeoka Thrust after this small fluid-loss by the extensional crack formation does not exceed 0.15. Hence, the pore fluid pressure reduction due to the post-seismic extensional cracks contributes little to increase the fault strength of the megasplay fault.

Coseismic Ground Deformation Reproduced through Numerical Modeling: A Parameter Sensitivity Analysis

Coseismic ground displacements detected through remote sensing surveys are often used to invert the coseismic slip distribution on geologically reliable fault planes. We analyze a well-known case study (2009 L’Aquila earthquake) to investigate how three-dimensional (3D) slip configuration affects coseismic ground surface deformation. Different coseismic slip surface configurations reconstructed using aftershocks distribution and coseismic cracks, were tested using 3D boundary element method numerical models. The models include two with slip patches that reach the surface and three models of blind normal-slip surfaces with different configurations of slip along shallowly-dipping secondary faults. We test the sensitivity of surface deformation to variations in stress drop and rock stiffness. We compare numerical models’ results with line of sight (LOS) surface deformation detected from differential SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) interferometry (DInSAR). The variations in fault configuration, rock stiffness and stress drop associated with the earthquake considerably impact the pattern of surface subsidence. In particular, the models with a coseismic slip patch that does not reach the surface have a better match to the line of sight coseismic surface deformation, as well as better match to the aftershock pattern, than models with rupture that reaches the surface. The coseismic slip along shallowly dipping secondary faults seems to provide a minor contribution toward surface deformation.

Energy-flux control of the steady-state, creep, and dynamic slip modes of faults

Faults exhibit a gamut of slip styles from stable sliding and creep events to earthquakes. These slip styles are affected by the fault properties, e.g., weakening or strengthening, and the properties of the loading system. Here, we investigate the poorly understood effect of energy-flux to the fault that should equal or exceed the energy-dissipation-rate along the slipping fault. We explore the relationship between energy-flux and slip style in shear experiments along granite and diorite laboratory faults, during which the faults were subjected to controlled energy-flux, and responded spontaneously to it. The monitored evolution of slip-velocity, shear stress, and slip-distance revealed three slip styles that depend on the applied energy-flux: (1) steady-state slip; (2) spontaneous creep events of small displacement with negligible weakening; and (3) spontaneous, unstable events with slip-velocities up to 0.8 m/s, slip-distances up to 0.5 m, and stress-drops up to 1 MPa, which are comparable to observed values of moderate earthquakes. These slip styles are similar in character to those observed along natural faults. We further propose that the rate of energy flow from crustal blocks can control the slip velocity during earthquakes.

A surface gravity traverse on Mars indicates low bedrock density at Gale crater

Gravimetry, the precise measurement of gravitational fields, can be used to probe the internal structure of Earth and other planets. The Curiosity rover on Mars carries accelerometers normally used for navigation and attitude determination. We have recalibrated them to isolate the signature of the changing gravitational acceleration as the rover climbs through Gale crater. The subsurface rock density is inferred from the measured decrease in gravitational field strength with elevation. The density of the sedimentary rocks in Gale crater is 1680 ± 180 kilograms per cubic meter. This value is lower than expected, indicating a high porosity and constraining maximum burial depths of the rocks over their history.

Lower-crustal earthquakes in southern Tibet are linked to eclogitization of dry metastable granulite

Southern Tibet is the most active orogenic region on Earth where the Indian Plate thrusts under Eurasia, pushing the seismic discontinuity between the crust and the mantle to an unusual depth of ~80 km. Numerous earthquakes occur in the lower portion of this thickened continental crust, but the triggering mechanisms remain enigmatic. Here we show that dry granulite rocks, the dominant constituent of the subducted Indian crust, become brittle when deformed under conditions corresponding to the eclogite stability field. Microfractures propagate dynamically, producing acoustic emission, a laboratory analog of earthquakes, leading to macroscopic faults. Failed specimens are characterized by weak reaction bands consisting of nanometric products of the metamorphic reaction. Assisted by brittle intra-granular ruptures, the reaction bands develop into shear bands which self-organize to form macroscopic Riedel-like fault zones. These results provide a viable mechanism for deep seismicity with additional constraints on orogenic processes in Tibet.

The triggering mechanism of deep seismicity in Tibet remains unclear. Here the authors use experiments to show that granulite when deformed becomes brittle as it passes into the ecologite stability field developing macroscopic riedel fault zones thus providing an explanation for deep seismicity in Southern Tibet.

The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions around the world, with the goal of providing enough warning of incoming ground shaking to allow people and automated systems to take protective actions to mitigate losses. However, the question of how much warning time is physically possible for specified levels of ground motion has not been addressed. We consider a zero-latency EEW system to determine possible warning times a user could receive in an ideal case. In this case, the only limitation on warning time is the time required for the earthquake to evolve and the time for strong ground motion to arrive at a user's location. We find that users who wish to be alerted at lower ground motion thresholds will receive more robust warnings with longer average warning times than users who receive warnings for higher ground motion thresholds. EEW systems have the greatest potential benefit for users willing to take action at relatively low ground motion thresholds, whereas users who set relatively high thresholds for taking action are less likely to receive timely and actionable information.

Earthquake rupture below the brittle-ductile transition in continental lithospheric mantle

Earthquakes deep in the continental lithosphere are rare and hard to interpret in our current understanding of temperature control on brittle failure. The recent lithospheric mantle earthquake with a moment magnitude of 4.8 at a depth of ~75 km in the Wyoming Craton was exceptionally well recorded and thus enabled us to probe the cause of these unusual earthquakes. On the basis of complete earthquake energy balance estimates using broadband waveforms and temperature estimates using surface heat flow and shear wave velocities, we argue that this earthquake occurred in response to ductile deformation at temperatures above 750°C. The high stress drop, low rupture velocity, and low radiation efficiency are all consistent with a dissipative mechanism. Our results imply that earthquake nucleation in the lithospheric mantle is not exclusively limited to the brittle regime; weakening mechanisms in the ductile regime can allow earthquakes to initiate and propagate. This finding has significant implications for understanding deep earthquake rupture mechanics and rheology of the continental lithosphere.

Stochastic coupled simulation of strong motion and tsunami for the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake

This study conducts coupled simulation of strong motion and tsunami using stochastically generated earthquake source models. It is focused upon the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake. The ground motion time-histories are simulated using the multiple-event stochastic finite-fault method, which takes into account multiple local rupture processes in strong motion generation areas. For tsunami simulation, multiple realizations of wave profiles are generated by evaluating nonlinear shallow water equations with run-up. Key objectives of this research are: (i) to investigate the sensitivity of strong motion and tsunami hazard parameters to asperities and strong motion generation areas, and (ii) to quantify the spatial variability and dependency of strong motion and tsunami predictions due to common earthquake sources. The investigations provide valuable insights in understanding the temporal and spatial impact of cascading earthquake hazards. Importantly, the study also develops an integrated strong motion and tsunami simulator, which is capable of capturing earthquake source uncertainty. Such an advanced numerical tool is necessary for assessing the performance of buildings and infrastructure that are subjected to cascading earthquake-tsunami hazards.

Linking megathrust earthquakes to brittle deformation in a fossil accretionary complex

Seismological data from recent subduction earthquakes suggest that megathrust earthquakes induce transient stress changes in the upper plate that shift accretionary wedges into an unstable state. These stress changes have, however, never been linked to geological structures preserved in fossil accretionary complexes. The importance of coseismically induced wedge failure has therefore remained largely elusive. Here we show that brittle faulting and vein formation in the palaeo-accretionary complex of the European Alps record stress changes generated by subduction-related earthquakes. Early veins formed at shallow levels by bedding-parallel shear during coseismic compression of the outer wedge. In contrast, subsequent vein formation occurred by normal faulting and extensional fracturing at deeper levels in response to coseismic extension of the inner wedge. Our study demonstrates how mineral veins can be used to reveal the dynamics of outer and inner wedges, which respond in opposite ways to megathrust earthquakes by compressional and extensional faulting, respectively.

On the earthquake predictability of fault interaction models

Space-time clustering is the most striking departure of large earthquakes occurrence process from randomness. These clusters are usually described ex-post by a physics-based model in which earthquakes are triggered by Coulomb stress changes induced by other surrounding earthquakes. Notwithstanding the popularity of this kind of modeling, its ex-ante skill in terms of earthquake predictability gain is still unknown. Here we show that even in synthetic systems that are rooted on the physics of fault interaction using the Coulomb stress changes, such a kind of modeling often does not increase significantly earthquake predictability. Earthquake predictability of a fault may increase only when the Coulomb stress change induced by a nearby earthquake is much larger than the stress changes caused by earthquakes on other faults and by the intrinsic variability of the earthquake occurrence process.

Modeling fast and slow earthquakes at various scales

Earthquake sources represent dynamic rupture within rocky materials at depth and often can be modeled as propagating shear slip controlled by friction laws. These laws provide boundary conditions on fault planes embedded in elastic media. Recent developments in observation networks, laboratory experiments, and methods of data analysis have expanded our knowledge of the physics of earthquakes. Newly discovered slow earthquakes are qualitatively different phenomena from ordinary fast earthquakes and provide independent information on slow deformation at depth. Many numerical simulations have been carried out to model both fast and slow earthquakes, but problems remain, especially with scaling laws. Some mechanisms are required to explain the power-law nature of earthquake rupture and the lack of characteristic length. Conceptual models that include a hierarchical structure over a wide range of scales would be helpful for characterizing diverse behavior in different seismic regions and for improving probabilistic forecasts of earthquakes.

Triggering of New Madrid seismicity by late-Pleistocene erosion

The spatiotemporal behaviour of earthquakes within continental plate interiors is different from that at plate boundaries. At plate margins, tectonic motions quickly reload earthquake ruptures, making the location of recent earthquakes and the average time between them consistent with the faults' geological, palaeoseismic and seismic histories. In contrast, what determines the activation of a particular mid-continental fault and controls the duration of its seismic activity remains poorly understood. Here we argue that the concentration of magnitude-7 or larger earthquakes in the New Madrid seismic zone of the central United States since the end of the last ice age results from the recent, climate-controlled, erosional history of the northern Mississippi embayment. We show that the upward flexure of the lithosphere caused by unloading from river incision between 16,000 and 10,000 years ago caused a reduction of normal stresses in the upper crust sufficient to unclamp pre-existing faults close to failure equilibrium. Models indicate that fault segments that have already ruptured are unlikely to fail again soon, but stress changes from sediment unloading and previous earthquakes may eventually be sufficient to bring to failure other nearby segments that have not yet ruptured.