Impact of sea ice transport on Beaufort Gyre liquid freshwater content

The Arctic Ocean's Beaufort Gyre (BG) is a wind-driven reservoir of relatively fresh seawater, situated beneath time-mean anticyclonic atmospheric circulation, and is covered by mobile pack ice for most of the year. Liquid freshwater accumulation in and expulsion from this gyre is of critical interest due to its potential to affect the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and due to the importance of freshwater in modulating vertical fluxes of heat, nutrients and carbon in the ocean, and exchanges of heat and moisture with the atmosphere. Here, we investigate the hypothesis that wind-driven sea ice transport into/from the BG region influences the freshwater content of the gyre and its variability. To test this hypothesis, we use the results of a coordinated climate response function experiment with four ice-ocean models, in combination with targeted experiments using a regional setup of the MITgcm, in which we rotate the surface wind forcing vectors (thereby changing the ageostrophic component of these winds). Our results show that, via an effect on the net thermodynamic growth rate, anomalies in sea ice transport into the BG affect liquid freshwater adjustment. Specifically, increased ice import increases freshwater retention in the gyre, whereas ice export decreases freshwater in the gyre. Our results demonstrate that uncertainty in the ageostrophic component of surface winds, and in the dynamic sea ice response to these winds, has important implications for ice thermodynamics and freshwater. This sensitivity may explain some of the observed inter-model spread in simulations of Beaufort Gyre freshwater and its adjustment in response to wind forcing.

The Arctic Ocean's Beaufort Gyre

The Arctic Ocean's Beaufort Gyre is a dominant feature of the Arctic system, a prominent indicator of climate change, and possibly a control factor for high-latitude climate. The state of knowledge of the wind-driven Beaufort Gyre is reviewed here, including its forcing, relationship to sea-ice cover, source waters, circulation, and energetics. Recent decades have seen pronounced change in all elements of the Beaufort Gyre system. Sea-ice losses have accompanied an intensification of the gyre circulation and increasing heat and freshwater content. Present understanding of these changes is evaluated, and time series of heat and freshwater content are updated to include the most recent observations.

Nuclear Reprocessing Tracers Illuminate Flow Features and Connectivity Between the Arctic and Subpolar North Atlantic Oceans

Releases of anthropogenic radionuclides from European nuclear fuel reprocessing plants enter the surface circulation of the high-latitude North Atlantic and are transported northward into the Arctic Ocean and southward from the Nordic Seas into the deep North Atlantic, thereby providing tracers of water circulation, mixing, ventilation, and deep-water formation. Early tracer studies focused on ¹³⁷Cs, which revealed some of the first significant insights into the Arctic Ocean circulation, while more recent work has benefited from advances in accelerator mass spectrometry to enable the measurement of the conservative, long-lived radionuclide tracers ¹²⁹I and ²³⁶U. The latest studies of these tracers, supported by simulations using the North Atlantic-Arctic Ocean-Sea Ice Model (NAOSIM) and enhanced by the use of transit time distributions to more precisely accommodate mixing, have provided a rich inventory of transport data for circulation in the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans that are of great importance to global thermohaline circulation and climate.

An Algorithm to Bias-Correct and Transform Arctic SMAP-Derived Skin Salinities into Bulk Surface Salinities

An algorithmic approach, based on satellite-derived sea-surface (“skin”) salinities (SSS), is proposed to correct for errors in SSS retrievals and convert these skin salinities into comparable in-situ (“bulk”) salinities for the top-5 m of the subpolar and Arctic Oceans. In preparation for routine assimilation into operational ocean forecast models, Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite Level-2 SSS observations are transformed using Argo float data from the top-5 m of the ocean to address the mismatch between the skin depth of satellite L-band SSS measurements (∼1 cm) and the thickness of top model layers (typically at least 1 m). Separate from the challenge of Argo float availability in most of the subpolar and Arctic Oceans, satellite-derived SSS products for these regions currently are not suitable for assimilation for a myriad of other reasons, including erroneous ancillary air-sea forcing/flux products. In the subpolar and Arctic Oceans, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) between the SMAP SSS product and several in-situ salinity observational data sets for the top-5 m is greater than 1.5 pss (Practical Salinity Scale), which can be larger than their temporal variability. Thus, we train a machine-learning algorithm (called a Generalized Additive Model) on in-situ salinities from the top-5 m and an independent air-sea forcing/flux product to convert the SMAP SSS into bulk-salinities, correct biases, and quantify their standard errors. The RMSE between these corrected bulk-salinities and in-situ measurements is less than 1 pss in open ocean regions. Barring persistently problematic data near coasts and ice-pack edges, the corrected bulk-salinity data are in better agreement with in-situ data than their SMAP SSS equivalent.

The pico-sized Mamiellophyceae and a novel Bathycoccus clade from the summer plankton of Russian Arctic Seas and adjacent waters

Global climate changes and anthropogenic activity greatly impact Arctic marine biodiversity including phytoplankton which contribute greatly to atmospheric oxygen production. Thus the study of microalgae has rising topicality. Class Mamiellophyceae is an important component of phototrophic picoplankton. To gain more knowledge about Mamiellophyceae distribution and diversity special studies were performed in such remote areas as the Russian Arctic seas. A metabarcoding of pico-sized Mamiellophyceae was undertaken by high-throughput sequencing of the 18S rRNA gene sequence V4 region from samples collected in July-September 2017 in the Barents, Kara and Laptev seas, and in the adjacent waters of the Norwegian Sea. Our study is the first to show that Mamiellophyceae among the summer picoplankton of Russian Arctic seas are diverse and represented by 16 algae species/phylotypes. We discovered a new candidate species of Bathycoccus assigned to a new Bathycoccus clade A-uncultured Bathycoccus Kara 2017. It was found that several Micromonas species can co-exist, with Micromonas polaris dominating north of 72°N. The presence of Ostreococcus tauri, Ostreococcus lucimarinus and Ostreococcus mediterraneus at high latitudes beyond 65°N was documented for the first time, similar to findings for some other taxa. Our results will be important for obtaining a global view of Mamiellophyceae community dynamics.

Changes in the Arctic Ocean Carbon Cycle With Diminishing Ice Cover

Less than three decades ago only a small fraction of the Arctic Ocean (AO) was ice free and then only for short periods. The ice cover kept sea surface pCO2 at levels lower relative to other ocean basins that have been exposed year round to ever increasing atmospheric levels. In this study, we evaluate sea surface pCO2 measurements collected over a 6-year period along a fixed cruise track in the Canada Basin. The measurements show that mean pCO2 levels are significantly higher during low ice years. The pCO2 increase is likely driven by ocean surface heating and uptake of atmospheric CO2 with large interannual variability in the contributions of these processes. These findings suggest that increased ice-free periods will further increase sea surface pCO2, reducing the Canada Basin's current role as a net sink of atmospheric CO2.

Photosynthetic Picoeukaryotes Diversity in the Underlying Ice Waters of the White Sea, Russia

The White Sea is a unique basin combining features of temperate and arctic seas. The current state of its biocenoses can serve as a reference point in assessing the expected desalination of the ocean as a result of climate change. A metagenomic study of under-ice ice photosynthetic picoeukaryotes (PPEs) was undertaken by Illumina high-throughput sequencing of the 18S rDNA V4 region from probes collected in March 2013 and 2014. The PPE biomass in samples was 0.03–0.17 µg C·L−1 and their abundance varied from 10 cells·mL−1 to 140 cells·mL−1. There were representatives of 16 algae genera from seven classes and three supergroups, but Chlorophyta, especially Mamiellophyceae, dominated. The most represented genera were Micromonas and Mantoniella. For the first time, the predominance of Mantoniella (in four samples) and Bolidophyceae (in one sample) was observed in under-ice water. It can be assumed that a change in environmental conditions will lead to a considerable change in the structure of arctic PPE communities.

Enhanced eddy activity in the Beaufort Gyre in response to sea ice loss

The Beaufort Gyre freshwater content has increased since the 1990s, potentially stabilizing in recent years. The mechanisms proposed to explain the stabilization involve either mesoscale eddy activity that opposes Ekman pumping or the reduction of Ekman pumping due to reduced sea ice–ocean surface stress. However, the relative importance of these mechanisms is unclear. Here, we present observational estimates of the Beaufort Gyre mechanical energy budget and show that energy dissipation and freshwater content stabilization by eddies increased in the late-2000s. The loss of sea ice and acceleration of ocean currents after 2007 resulted in enhanced mechanical energy input but without corresponding increases in potential energy storage. To balance the energy surplus, eddy dissipation and its role in gyre stabilization must have increased after 2007. Our results imply that declining Arctic sea ice will lead to an increasingly energetic Beaufort Gyre with eddies playing a greater role in its stabilization.

The freshwater content of the Beaufort Gyre in the Western Arctic Ocean has increased in response to almost two decades of persistent anti-cyclonic winds. Here, the authors found that dramatic loss of sea ice and acceleration of surface currents after 2007 led to a net annual wind energy input to the Beaufort Gyre, and anticipate that continued sea ice decline will lead to an increasingly energetic Beaufort Gyre.

Analysis of the Beaufort Gyre Freshwater Content in 2003-2018

Hydrographic data collected from research cruises, bottom-anchored moorings, drifting Ice-Tethered Profilers, and satellite altimetry in the Beaufort Gyre region of the Arctic Ocean document an increase of more than 6,400 km3 of liquid freshwater content from 2003 to 2018: a 40% growth relative to the climatology of the 1970s. This fresh water accumulation is shown to result from persistent anticyclonic atmospheric wind forcing (1997-2018) accompanied by sea ice melt, a wind-forced redirection of Mackenzie River discharge from predominantly eastward to westward flow, and a contribution of low salinity waters of Pacific Ocean origin via Bering Strait. Despite significant uncertainties in the different observations, this study has demonstrated the synergistic value of having multiple diverse datasets to obtain a more comprehensive understanding of Beaufort Gyre freshwater content variability. For example, Beaufort Gyre Observational System (BGOS) surveys clearly show the interannual increase in freshwater content, but without satellite or Ice-Tethered Profiler measurements, it is not possible to resolve the seasonal cycle of freshwater content, which in fact is larger than the year-to-year variability, or the more subtle interannual variations.

Arctic Ocean Sea Level Record from the Complete Radar Altimetry Era: 1991–2018

In recent years, there has been a large focus on the Arctic due to the rapid changes of the region. Arctic sea level determination is challenging due to the seasonal to permanent sea-ice cover, lack of regional coverage of satellites, satellite instruments ability to measure ice, insufficient geophysical models, residual orbit errors, challenging retracking of satellite altimeter data. We present the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) Technical University of Denmark (DTU)/Technischen Universität München (TUM) sea level anomaly (SLA) record based on radar satellite altimetry data in the Arctic Ocean from the European Remote Sensing satellite number 1 (ERS-1) (1991) to CryoSat-2 (2018). We use updated geophysical corrections and a combination of altimeter data: Reprocessing of Altimeter Product for ERS (REAPER) (ERS-1), ALES+ retracker (ERS-2, Envisat), combination of Radar Altimetry Database System (RADS) and DTUs in-house retracker LARS (CryoSat-2). Furthermore, this study focuses on the transition between conventional and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) altimeter data to make a smooth time series regarding the measurement method. We find a sea level rise of 1.54 mm/year from September 1991 to September 2018 with a 95% confidence interval from 1.16 to 1.81 mm/year. ERS-1 data is troublesome and when ignoring this satellite the SLA trend becomes 2.22 mm/year with a 95% confidence interval within 1.67–2.54 mm/year. Evaluating the SLA trends in 5 year intervals show a clear steepening of the SLA trend around 2004. The sea level anomaly record is validated against tide gauges and show good results. Additionally, the time series is split and evaluated in space and time.

Role of Greenland Freshwater Anomaly in the Recent Freshening of the Subpolar North Atlantic

The cumulative Greenland freshwater flux anomaly has exceeded 5,000 km3 since the 1990s. The volume of this surplus freshwater is expected to cause substantial freshening in the North Atlantic. Analysis of hydrographic observations in the subpolar seas reveals freshening signals in the 2010s. The sources of this freshening are yet to be determined. In this study, the relationship between the surplus Greenland freshwater flux and this freshening is tested by analyzing the propagation of the Greenland freshwater anomaly and its impact on salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic based on observational data and numerical experiments with and without the Greenland runoff. A passive tracer is continuously released during the simulations at freshwater sources along the coast of Greenland to track the Greenland freshwater anomaly. Tracer budget analysis shows that 44% of the volume of the Greenland freshwater anomaly is retained in the subpolar North Atlantic by the end of the simulation. This volume is sufficient to cause strong freshening in the subpolar seas if it stays in the upper 50-100 m. However, in the model the anomaly is mixed down to several hundred meters of the water column resulting in smaller magnitudes of freshening compared to the observations. Therefore, the simulations suggest that the accelerated Greenland melting would not be sufficient to cause the observed freshening in the subpolar seas and other sources of freshwater have contributed to the freshening. Impacts on salinity in the subpolar seas of the freshwater transport through Fram Strait and precipitation are discussed.

High colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) absorption in surface waters of the central-eastern Arctic Ocean: Implications for biogeochemistry and ocean color algorithms

As consequences of global warming sea-ice shrinking, permafrost thawing and changes in fresh water and terrestrial material export have already been reported in the Arctic environment. These processes impact light penetration and primary production. To reach a better understanding of the current status and to provide accurate forecasts Arctic biogeochemical and physical parameters need to be extensively monitored. In this sense, bio-optical properties are useful to be measured due to the applicability of optical instrumentation to autonomous platforms, including satellites. This study characterizes the non-water absorbers and their coupling to hydrographic conditions in the poorly sampled surface waters of the central and eastern Arctic Ocean. Over the entire sampled area colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) dominates the light absorption in surface waters. The distribution of CDOM, phytoplankton and non-algal particles absorption reproduces the hydrographic variability in this region of the Arctic Ocean which suggests a subdivision into five major bio-optical provinces: Laptev Sea Shelf, Laptev Sea, Central Arctic/Transpolar Drift, Beaufort Gyre and Eurasian/Nansen Basin. Evaluating ocean color algorithms commonly applied in the Arctic Ocean shows that global and regionally tuned empirical algorithms provide poor chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) estimates. The semi-analytical algorithms Generalized Inherent Optical Property model (GIOP) and Garver-Siegel-Maritorena (GSM), on the other hand, provide robust estimates of Chl-a and absorption of colored matter. Applying GSM with modifications proposed for the western Arctic Ocean produced reliable information on the absorption by colored matter, and specifically by CDOM. These findings highlight that only semi-analytical ocean color algorithms are able to identify with low uncertainty the distribution of the different optical water constituents in these high CDOM absorbing waters. In addition, a clustering of the Arctic Ocean into bio-optical provinces will help to develop and then select province-specific ocean color algorithms.

Observation-Based Assessment of PBDE Loads in Arctic Ocean Waters

Little is known about the distribution of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE) -also known as flame retardants- in major ocean compartments, with no reports yet for the large deep-water masses of the Arctic Ocean. Here, PBDE concentrations, congener patterns and inventories are presented for the different water masses of the pan-Arctic shelf seas and the interior basin. Seawater samples were collected onboard three cross-basin oceanographic campaigns in 2001, 2005, and 2008 following strict trace-clean protocols. ∑14PBDE concentrations in the Polar Mixed Layer (PML; a surface water mass) range from 0.3 to 11.2 pg·L(-1), with higher concentrations in the pan-Arctic shelf seas and lower levels in the interior basin. BDE-209 is the dominant congener in most of the pan-Arctic areas except for the ones close to North America, where penta-BDE and tetra-BDE congeners predominate. In deep-water masses, ∑14PBDE concentrations are up to 1 order of magnitude higher than in the PML. Whereas BDE-209 decreases with depth, the less-brominated congeners, particularly BDE-47 and BDE-99, increase down through the water column. Likewise, concentrations of BDE-71 -a congener not present in any PBDE commercial mixture- increase with depth, which potentially is the result of debromination of BDE-209. The inventories in the three water masses of the Central Arctic Basin (PML, intermediate Atlantic Water Layer, and the Arctic Deep Water Layer) are 158 ± 77 kg, 6320 ± 235 kg and 30800 ± 3100 kg, respectively. The total load of PBDEs in the entire Arctic Ocean shows that only a minor fraction of PBDEs emissions are transported to the Arctic Ocean. These findings represent the first PBDE data in the deep-water compartments of an ocean.

Arctic pathways of Pacific Water: Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison experiments

Pacific Water (PW) enters the Arctic Ocean through Bering Strait and brings in heat, fresh water, and nutrients from the northern Bering Sea. The circulation of PW in the central Arctic Ocean is only partially understood due to the lack of observations. In this paper, pathways of PW are investigated using simulations with six state-of-the art regional and global Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs). In the simulations, PW is tracked by a passive tracer, released in Bering Strait. Simulated PW spreads from the Bering Strait region in three major branches. One of them starts in the Barrow Canyon, bringing PW along the continental slope of Alaska into the Canadian Straits and then into Baffin Bay. The second begins in the vicinity of the Herald Canyon and transports PW along the continental slope of the East Siberian Sea into the Transpolar Drift, and then through Fram Strait and the Greenland Sea. The third branch begins near the Herald Shoal and the central Chukchi shelf and brings PW into the Beaufort Gyre. In the models, the wind, acting via Ekman pumping, drives the seasonal and interannual variability of PW in the Canadian Basin of the Arctic Ocean. The wind affects the simulated PW pathways by changing the vertical shear of the relative vorticity of the ocean flow in the Canada Basin.

Arctic circulation regimes

Between 1948 and 1996, mean annual environmental parameters in the Arctic experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability with two basic circulation patterns: cyclonic and anticyclonic alternating at 5 to 7 year intervals. During cyclonic regimes, low sea-level atmospheric pressure (SLP) dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean counterclockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid, and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean towards the subarctic seas was intensified. By contrast, during anticylonic circulation regimes, high SLP dominated driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise. Meanwhile, the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the subarctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been under the influence of an anticyclonic circulation regime (17 years) with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for this regime. We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from the Arctic Ocean and Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability.

Variability of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume from CryoSat-2

We present our estimates of the thickness and volume of the Arctic Ocean ice cover from CryoSat-2 data acquired between October 2010 and May 2014. Average ice thickness and draft differences are within 0.16 m of measurements from other sources (moorings, submarine, electromagnetic sensors, IceBridge). The choice of parameters that affect the conversion of ice freeboard to thickness is discussed. Estimates between 2011 and 2013 suggest moderate decreases in volume followed by a notable increase of more than 2500 km(3) (or 0.34 m of thickness over the basin) in 2014, which could be attributed to not only a cooler summer in 2013 but also to large-scale ice convergence just west of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago due to wind-driven onshore drift. Variability of volume and thickness in the multiyear ice zone underscores the importance of dynamics in maintaining the thickness of the Arctic ice cover. Volume estimates are compared with those from ICESat as well as the trends in ice thickness derived from submarine ice draft between 1980 and 2004. The combined ICESat and CryoSat-2 record yields reduced trends in volume loss compared with the 5 year ICESat record, which was weighted by the record-setting ice extent after the summer of 2007.

Bacterial communities of surface mixed layer in the Pacific sector of the western Arctic Ocean during sea-ice melting

From July to August 2010, the IBRV ARAON journeyed to the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean to monitor bacterial variation in Arctic summer surface-waters, and temperature, salinity, fluorescence, and nutrient concentrations were determined during the ice-melting season. Among the measured physicochemical parameters, we observed a strong negative correlation between temperature and salinity, and consequently hypothesized that the melting ice decreased water salinity. The bacterial community compositions of 15 samples, includicng seawater, sea-ice, and melting pond water, were determined using a pyrosequencing approach and were categorized into three habitats: (1) surface seawater, (2) ice core, and (3) melting pond. Analysis of these samples indicated the presence of local bacterial communities; a deduction that was further corroborated by the discovery of seawater- and ice-specific bacterial phylotypes. In all samples, the Alphaproteobacteria, Flavobacteria, and Gammaproteobacteria taxa composed the majority of the bacterial communities. Among these, Alphaproteobacteria was the most abundant and present in all samples, and its variation differed among the habitats studied. Linear regression analysis suggested that changes in salinity could affect the relative proportion of Alphaproteobacteria in the surface water. In addition, the species-sorting model was applied to evaluate the population dynamics and environmental heterogeneity in the bacterial communities of surface mixed layer in the Arctic Ocean during sea-ice melting.

The great 2012 Arctic Ocean summer cyclone enhanced biological productivity on the shelves

[1] A coupled biophysical model is used to examine the impact of the great Arctic cyclone of early August 2012 on the marine planktonic ecosystem in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean (PSA). Model results indicate that the cyclone influences the marine planktonic ecosystem by enhancing productivity on the shelves of the Chukchi, East Siberian, and Laptev seas during the storm. Although the cyclone's passage in the PSA lasted only a few days, the simulated biological effects on the shelves last 1 month or longer. At some locations on the shelves, primary productivity (PP) increases by up to 90% and phytoplankton biomass by up to 40% in the wake of the cyclone. The increase in zooplankton biomass is up to 18% on 31 August and remains 10% on 15 September, more than 1 month after the storm. In the central PSA, however, model simulations indicate a decrease in PP and plankton biomass. The biological gain on the shelves and loss in the central PSA are linked to two factors. (1) The cyclone enhances mixing in the upper ocean, which increases nutrient availability in the surface waters of the shelves; enhanced mixing in the central PSA does not increase productivity because nutrients there are mostly depleted through summer draw down by the time of the cyclone's passage. (2) The cyclone also induces divergence, resulting from the cyclone's low-pressure system that drives cyclonic sea ice and upper ocean circulation, which transports more plankton biomass onto the shelves from the central PSA. The simulated biological gain on the shelves is greater than the loss in the central PSA, and therefore, the production on average over the entire PSA is increased by the cyclone. Because the gain on the shelves is offset by the loss in the central PSA, the average increase over the entire PSA is moderate and lasts only about 10 days. The generally positive impact of cyclones on the marine ecosystem in the Arctic, particularly on the shelves, is likely to grow with increasing summer cyclone activity if the Arctic continues to warm and the ice cover continues to shrink.

Trajectory of the Arctic as an integrated system

Although much remains to be learned about the Arctic and its component processes, many of the most urgent scientific, engineering, and social questions can only be approached through a broader system perspective. Here, we address interactions between components of the Arctic system and assess feedbacks and the extent to which feedbacks (1) are now underway in the Arctic and (2) will shape the future trajectory of the Arctic system. We examine interdependent connections among atmospheric processes, oceanic processes, sea-ice dynamics, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, land surface stocks of carbon and water, glaciers and ice caps, and the Greenland ice sheet. Our emphasis on the interactions between components, both historical and anticipated, is targeted on the feedbacks, pathways, and processes that link these different components of the Arctic system. We present evidence that the physical components of the Arctic climate system are currently in extreme states, and that there is no indication that the system will deviate from this anomalous trajectory in the foreseeable future. The feedback for which the evidence of ongoing changes is most compelling is the surface albedo-temperature feedback, which is amplifying temperature changes over land (primarily in spring) and ocean (primarily in autumn-winter). Other feedbacks likely to emerge are those in which key processes include surface fluxes of trace gases, changes in the distribution of vegetation, changes in surface soil moisture, changes in atmospheric water vapor arising from higher temperatures and greater areas of open ocean, impacts of Arctic freshwater fluxes on the meridional overturning circulation of the ocean, and changes in Arctic clouds resulting from changes in water vapor content.

Does Arctic sea ice reduction foster shelf-basin exchange?

The recent shift in Arctic ice conditions from prevailing multi-year ice to first-year ice will presumably intensify fall-winter sea ice freezing and the associated salt flux to the underlying water column. Here, we conduct a dual modeling study whose results suggest that the predicted catastrophic consequences for the global thermohaline circulation (THC), as a result of the disappearance of Arctic sea ice, may not necessarily occur. In a warmer climate, the substantial fraction of dense water feeding the Greenland-Scotland overflow may form on Arctic shelves and cascade to the deep basin, thus replenishing dense water, which currently forms through open ocean convection in the sub-Arctic seas. We have used a simplified model for estimating how increased ice production influences shelf-basin exchange associated with dense water cascading. We have carried out case studies in two regions of the Arctic Ocean where cascading was observed in the past. The baseline range of buoyancy-forcing derived from the columnar ice formation was calculated as part of a 30-year experiment of the pan-Arctic coupled ice-ocean general circulation model (GCM). The GCM results indicate that mechanical sea ice divergence associated with lateral advection accounts for a significant part of the interannual variations in sea ice thermal production in the coastal polynya regions. This forcing was then rectified by taking into account sub-grid processes and used in a regional model with analytically prescribed bottom topography and vertical stratification in order to examine specific cascading conditions in the Pacific and Atlantic sectors of the Arctic Ocean. Our results demonstrate that the consequences of enhanced ice formation depend on geographical location and shelf-basin bathymetry. In the Pacific sector, strong density stratification in slope waters impedes noticeable deepening of shelf-origin water, even for the strongest forcing applied. In the Atlantic sector, a 1.5x increase of salt flux leads to a threefold increase of shelf-slope volume flux below the warm core of Atlantic water. This threefold increase would be a sufficient substitute for a similar amount of dense water that currently forms in the Greenland, Iceland, and Norwegian (GIN) seas but is expected to decrease in a warming climate.

Recent oceanic changes in the Arctic in the context of long-term observations

This synthesis study assesses recent changes of Arctic Ocean physical parameters using a unique collection of observations from the 2000s and places them in the context of long-term climate trends and variability. Our analysis demonstrates that the 2000s were an exceptional decade with extraordinary upper Arctic Ocean freshening and intermediate Atlantic water warming. We note that the Arctic Ocean is characterized by large amplitude multi-decadal variability in addition to a long-term trend, making the link of observed changes to climate drivers problematic. However, the exceptional magnitude of recent high-latitude changes (not only oceanic, but also ice and atmospheric) strongly suggests that these recent changes signify a potentially irreversible shift of the Arctic Ocean to a new climate state. These changes have important implications for the Arctic Ocean's marine ecosystem, especially those components that are dependent on sea ice or that have temperature-dependent sensitivities or thresholds. Addressing these and other questions requires a carefully orchestrated combination of sustained multidisciplinary observations and advanced modeling.

Detecting and coping with disruptive shocks in Arctic marine systems: a resilience approach to place and people

It seems inevitable that the ongoing and rapid changes in the physical environment of the marine Arctic will push components of the region's existing social-ecological systems-small and large-beyond tipping points and into new regimes. Ongoing changes include warming, freshening, acidification, and alterations to food web structure. In anticipation we pose three distinct but interrelated challenges: (1) to explore existing connectivities within components of the marine system; (2) to seek indicators (if they exist) of approaching regime change through observation and modeling; and (3) to build functional resilience into existing systems through adaptation-oriented policy and to have in hand transformative options when tipping points are crossed and new development trajectories are required. Each of the above challenges is scale dependent, and each requires a much deeper understanding than we currently have of connectivity within existing systems and their response to external forcing. Here, we argue from a global perspective the need to understand the Arctic's role in an increasingly nonlinear world; then describe emerging evidence from new observations on the connectivity of processes and system components from the Canada Basin and subarctic seas surrounding northern North America; and finally posit an approach founded in "resilience thinking" to allow northern residents living in small coastal communities to participate in the observation, adaption and-if necessary-transformation of the social-ecological system with which they live.

Arctic climate tipping points

There is widespread concern that anthropogenic global warming will trigger Arctic climate tipping points. The Arctic has a long history of natural, abrupt climate changes, which together with current observations and model projections, can help us to identify which parts of the Arctic climate system might pass future tipping points. Here the climate tipping points are defined, noting that not all of them involve bifurcations leading to irreversible change. Past abrupt climate changes in the Arctic are briefly reviewed. Then, the current behaviour of a range of Arctic systems is summarised. Looking ahead, a range of potential tipping phenomena are described. This leads to a revised and expanded list of potential Arctic climate tipping elements, whose likelihood is assessed, in terms of how much warming will be required to tip them. Finally, the available responses are considered, especially the prospects for avoiding Arctic climate tipping points.

Changing Arctic Ocean freshwater pathways

Freshening in the Canada basin of the Arctic Ocean began in the 1990s and continued to at least the end of 2008. By then, the Arctic Ocean might have gained four times as much fresh water as comprised the Great Salinity Anomaly of the 1970s, raising the spectre of slowing global ocean circulation. Freshening has been attributed to increased sea ice melting and contributions from runoff, but a leading explanation has been a strengthening of the Beaufort High--a characteristic peak in sea level atmospheric pressure--which tends to accelerate an anticyclonic (clockwise) wind pattern causing convergence of fresh surface water. Limited observations have made this explanation difficult to verify, and observations of increasing freshwater content under a weakened Beaufort High suggest that other factors must be affecting freshwater content. Here we use observations to show that during a time of record reductions in ice extent from 2005 to 2008, the dominant freshwater content changes were an increase in the Canada basin balanced by a decrease in the Eurasian basin. Observations are drawn from satellite data (sea surface height and ocean-bottom pressure) and in situ data. The freshwater changes were due to a cyclonic (anticlockwise) shift in the ocean pathway of Eurasian runoff forced by strengthening of the west-to-east Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation characterized by an increased Arctic Oscillation index. Our results confirm that runoff is an important influence on the Arctic Ocean and establish that the spatial and temporal manifestations of the runoff pathways are modulated by the Arctic Oscillation, rather than the strength of the wind-driven Beaufort Gyre circulation.

How does climate change influence Arctic mercury?

Recent studies have shown that climate change is already having significant impacts on many aspects of transport pathways, speciation and cycling of mercury within Arctic ecosystems. For example, the extensive loss of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean and the concurrent shift from greater proportions of perennial to annual types have been shown to promote changes in primary productivity, shift foodweb structures, alter mercury methylation and demethylation rates, and influence mercury distribution and transport across the ocean-sea-ice-atmosphere interface (bottom-up processes). In addition, changes in animal social behavior associated with changing sea-ice regimes can affect dietary exposure to mercury (top-down processes). In this review, we address these and other possible ramifications of climate variability on mercury cycling, processes and exposure by applying recent literature to the following nine questions; 1) What impact has climate change had on Arctic physical characteristics and processes? 2) How do rising temperatures affect atmospheric mercury chemistry? 3) Will a decrease in sea-ice coverage have an impact on the amount of atmospheric mercury deposited to or emitted from the Arctic Ocean, and if so, how? 4) Does climate affect air-surface mercury flux, and riverine mercury fluxes, in Arctic freshwater and terrestrial systems, and if so, how? 5) How does climate change affect mercury methylation/demethylation in different compartments in the Arctic Ocean and freshwater systems? 6) How will climate change alter the structure and dynamics of freshwater food webs, and thereby affect the bioaccumulation of mercury? 7) How will climate change alter the structure and dynamics of marine food webs, and thereby affect the bioaccumulation of marine mercury? 8) What are the likely mercury emissions from melting glaciers and thawing permafrost under climate change scenarios? and 9) What can be learned from current mass balance inventories of mercury in the Arctic? The review finishes with several conclusions and recommendations.