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Relative Effects of the Greenhouse Gases and Stratospheric Ozone Increases on Temperature and Circulation in the Stratosphere over the Arctic. REMOTE SENSING 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/rs14143447] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/10/2022]
Abstract
Using a stratosphere-resolving general circulation model, the relative effects of stratospheric ozone and greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase on the temperature and circulation in the Arctic stratosphere are examined. Results show that stratospheric ozone or GHGs increase alone could result in a cooling and strengthening extratropical stratosphere during February, March and April. However, the contribution of stratospheric ozone increases alone on the cooling and strengthening Arctic stratosphere is approximately 2 fold that of the GHGs increase alone. Model simulations suggested that the larger responses of the Arctic stratosphere to the ozone increase alone are closely related to the wave fluxes in the stratosphere, rather than the wave activity in the stratosphere. In response to the ozone increase, the vertical propagation of planetary waves from the troposphere into the mid-latitude stratosphere weakens, mainly contributed by its wavenumber-1 component. The impeded planetary waves tend to result from the larger zonal wind shear and vertical gradient of the buoyancy frequency. The magnitudes of anomalies in the zonal wind shear and buoyancy frequency in response to GHGs increase alone are smaller than in response to the ozone increase, which is in accordance with the larger contribution of stratospheric ozone to the temperature and circulation in the Arctic stratosphere.
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Polvani LM, Wang L, Abalos M, Butchart N, Chipperfield MP, Dameris M, Deushi M, Dhomse SS, Jöckel P, Kinnison D, Michou M, Morgenstern O, Oman LD, Plummer DA, Stone KA. Large impacts, past and future, of ozone-depleting substances on Brewer-Dobson circulation trends: A multi-model assessment. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH. ATMOSPHERES : JGR 2019; 124:6669-6680. [PMID: 31632893 PMCID: PMC6800672 DOI: 10.1029/2018jd029516] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2018] [Accepted: 05/08/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Substantial increases in the atmospheric concentration of well-mixed greenhouse gases (notably CO2), such as those projected to occur by the end of the 21st century under large radiative forcing scenarios, have long been known to cause an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) in climate models. More recently, however, several single-model studies have proposed that ozone-depleting substances might also be important drivers of BDC trends. As these studies were conducted with different forcings over different periods, it is difficult to combine them to obtain a robust quantitative picture of the relative importance of ozone-depleting substances as drivers of BDC trends. To this end we here analyze - over identical past and future periods - the output from 20 similarly-forced models, gathered from two recent chemistry-climate modeling intercomparison projects. Our multi-model analysis reveals that ozone-depleting substances are responsible for more than half of the modeled BDC trends in the two decades 1980-2000. We also find that, as a consequence of the Montreal Protocol, decreasing concentrations of ozone-depleting substances in coming decades will strongly decelerate the BDC until the year 2080, reducing the age-of-air trends by more than half, and will thus substantially mitigate the impact of increasing CO2. As ozone-depleting substances impact BDC trends, primarily, via the depletion/recovery of stratospheric ozone over the South Pole, they impart seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries to the trends which may offer opportunities for detection in coming decades.
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Affiliation(s)
- L M Polvani
- Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY USA
- Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY USA
- National Center for Atmospheric Reseach, Boulder, CO USA
| | - L Wang
- Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY USA
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - M Abalos
- Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - N Butchart
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon, UK
| | | | - M Dameris
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
| | - M Deushi
- Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - S S Dhomse
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK
| | - P Jöckel
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
| | - D Kinnison
- National Center for Atmospheric Reseach, Boulder, CO USA
| | - M Michou
- Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France
| | - O Morgenstern
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - L D Oman
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD USA
| | - D A Plummer
- Climate Research Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, QC Canada
| | - K A Stone
- School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence in Climate Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
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Eichinger R, Dietmüller S, Garny H, Šácha P, Birner T, Boenisch H, Pitari G, Visioni D, Stenke A, Rozanov E, Revell L, Plummer DA, Jöckel P, Oman L, Deushi M, Kinnison DE, Garcia R, Morgenstern O, Zeng G, Stone KA, Schofield R. The influence of mixing on stratospheric age of air changes in the 21st century. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 2019; 19:921-940. [PMID: 32793293 PMCID: PMC7422694 DOI: 10.5194/acp-19-921-2019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) due to climate change in the 21st century. However, the strength of this acceleration varies considerably among individual models, which constitutes a notable source of uncertainty for future climate projections. To shed more light upon the magnitude of this uncertainty and on its causes, we analyze the stratospheric mean age of air (AoA) of 10 climate projection simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative phase 1 (CCMI-I), covering the period between 1960 and 2100. In agreement with previous multi-model studies, we find a large model spread in the magnitude of the AoA trend over the simulation period. Differences between future and past AoA are found to be predominantly due to differences in mixing (reduced aging by mixing and recirculation) rather than differences in residual mean transport. We furthermore analyze the mixing efficiency, a measure of the relative strength of mixing for given residual mean transport, which was previously hypothesized to be a model constant. Here, the mixing efficiency is found to vary not only across models, but also over time in all models. Changes in mixing efficiency are shown to be closely related to changes in AoA and quantified to roughly contribute 10% to the long-term AoA decrease over the 21st century. Additionally, mixing efficiency variations are shown to considerably enhance model spread in AoA changes. To understand these mixing efficiency variations, we also present a consistent dynamical framework based on diffusive closure, which highlights the role of basic state potential vorticity gradients in controlling mixing efficiency and therefore aging by mixing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Roland Eichinger
- Ludwig Maximilians Universität, Meteorological Institute Munich, Munich, Germany
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
| | - Simone Dietmüller
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
| | - Hella Garny
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
- Ludwig Maximilians Universität, Meteorological Institute Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Petr Šácha
- Faculty of Sciences, EPhysLab, Universidade de Vigo, Ourense, Spain
- Charles University Prague, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Department of Atmospheric Physics, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Thomas Birner
- Ludwig Maximilians Universität, Meteorological Institute Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Harald Boenisch
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Insitute of Meteorology and Climate Reasearch, Karlsruhe, Germany
| | - Giovanni Pitari
- Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences, Università dell'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
| | - Daniele Visioni
- Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences and center of Excellence CETEMPS, Università dell'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
| | - Andrea Stenke
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich (ETHZ), Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Eugene Rozanov
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich (ETHZ), Zürich, Switzerland
- Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos and World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland
| | - Laura Revell
- Bodeker Scientific, Christchurch, New Zealand
- School of Physical and Chemical Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - David A Plummer
- Environment and Climate Change Canada, Climate Research Division, Montréal, QC, Canada
| | - Patrick Jöckel
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
| | - Luke Oman
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA GSFC), Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Makoto Deushi
- Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, Japan
| | | | - Rolando Garcia
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Olaf Morgenstern
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Guang Zeng
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Kane Adam Stone
- School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Sydney, Australia
| | - Robyn Schofield
- School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Sydney, Australia
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Ray EA, Moore FL, Rosenlof KH, Davis SM, Boenisch H, Morgenstern O, Smale D, Rozanov E, Hegglin M, Pitari G, Mancini E, Braesicke P, Butchart N, Hardiman S, Li F, Shibata K, Plummer DA. Evidence for changes in stratospheric transport and mixing over the past three decades based on multiple data sets and tropical leaky pipe analysis. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd014206] [Citation(s) in RCA: 65] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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