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Chamberlain EL, Goodbred SL, Steckler MS, Wallinga J, Reimann T, Akhter SH, Bain R, Muktadir G, Al Nahian A, Rahman FMA, Rahman M, Seeber L, von Hagke C. Cascading hazards of a major Bengal basin earthquake and abrupt avulsion of the Ganges River. Nat Commun 2024; 15:4975. [PMID: 38886403 PMCID: PMC11183210 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47786-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2023] [Accepted: 04/12/2024] [Indexed: 06/20/2024] Open
Abstract
Earthquakes present severe hazards for people and economies and can be primary drivers of landscape change yet their impact to river-channel networks remains poorly known. Here we show evidence for an abrupt earthquake-triggered avulsion of the Ganges River at ~2.5 ka leading to relocation of the mainstem channel belt in the Bengal delta. This is recorded in freshly discovered sedimentary archives of an immense relict channel and a paleo-earthquake of sufficient magnitude to cause major liquefaction and generate large, decimeter-scale sand dikes >180 km from the nearest seismogenic source region. Precise luminescence ages of channel sand, channel fill, and breached and partially liquefied floodplain deposits support coeval timing of the avulsion and earthquake. Evidence for reorganization of the river-channel network in the world's largest delta broadens the risk posed by seismic events in the region and their recognition as geomorphic agents in this and other tectonically active lowlands. The recurrence of comparable earthquake-triggered ground liquefaction and a channel avulsion would be catastrophic for any of the heavily populated, large river basins and deltas along the Himalayan arc (e.g., Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Ayeyarwady). The compounding effects of climate change and human impacts heighten and extend the vulnerability of many lowlands worldwide to such cascading hazards.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elizabeth L Chamberlain
- Soil Geography & Landscape group and Netherlands Centre for Luminescence dating, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
- Department of Earth & Environmental Sciences, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA.
- Marine & Polar Geophysics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA.
| | - Steven L Goodbred
- Department of Earth & Environmental Sciences, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA.
| | - Michael S Steckler
- Marine & Polar Geophysics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA
| | - Jakob Wallinga
- Soil Geography & Landscape group and Netherlands Centre for Luminescence dating, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Tony Reimann
- Mathematics & Natural Sciences, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
| | - Syed Humayun Akhter
- Department of Geology, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Bangladesh Open University, Gazipur, Bangladesh
| | - Rachel Bain
- Department of Earth & Environmental Sciences, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA
| | - Golam Muktadir
- Department of Environmental Science, Bangladesh University of Professionals, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | | | | | - Mahfuzur Rahman
- Department of Geology, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Department of Oceanography, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Noakhali, Bangladesh
| | - Leonardo Seeber
- Marine & Polar Geophysics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA
| | - Christoph von Hagke
- Department of Environment & Biodiversity, Geology and Physical Geography, University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria
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2
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White AM, Gardner WP, Borsa AA, Argus DF, Martens HR. A Review of GNSS/GPS in Hydrogeodesy: Hydrologic Loading Applications and Their Implications for Water Resource Research. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 2022; 58:e2022WR032078. [PMID: 36247691 PMCID: PMC9541658 DOI: 10.1029/2022wr032078] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2022] [Revised: 06/21/2022] [Accepted: 06/24/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Hydrogeodesy, a relatively new field within the earth sciences, is the analysis of the distribution and movement of terrestrial water at Earth's surface using measurements of Earth's shape, orientation, and gravitational field. In this paper, we review the current state of hydrogeodesy with a specific focus on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)/Global Positioning System measurements of hydrologic loading. As water cycles through the hydrosphere, GNSS stations anchored to Earth's crust measure the associated movement of the land surface under the weight of changing hydrologic loads. Recent advances in GNSS-based hydrogeodesy have led to exciting applications of hydrologic loading and subsequent terrestrial water storage (TWS) estimates. We describe how GNSS position time series respond to climatic drivers, can be used to estimate TWS across temporal scales, and can improve drought characterization. We aim to facilitate hydrologists' use of GNSS-observed surface deformation as an emerging tool for investigating and quantifying water resources, propose methods to further strengthen collaborative research and exchange between geodesists and hydrologists, and offer ideas about pressing questions in hydrology that GNSS may help to answer.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Adrian A. Borsa
- Scripps Institution of OceanographyUniversity of CaliforniaSan DiegoCAUSA
| | - Donald F. Argus
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
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3
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GRACE Follow-On revealed Bangladesh was flooded early in the 2020 monsoon season due to premature soil saturation. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2021; 118:2109086118. [PMID: 34785594 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2109086118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 09/27/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The overall size and timing of monsoon floods in Bangladesh are challenging to measure. The inundated area is extensive in low-lying Bangladesh, and observations of water storage are key to understanding floods. Laser-ranging instruments on Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Follow-On spacecraft detected the peak water storage anomaly of 75 gigatons across Bangladesh in late July 2020. This is in addition to, and three times larger than, the maximum storage anomaly in soil layers during the same period. A flood propagation model suggested that the water mass, as shown in satellite observations, is largely influenced by slow floodplain and groundwater flow processes. Independent global positioning system measurements confirmed the timing and total volume of the flood water estimates. According to land surface models, the soils were saturated a month earlier than the timing of the peak floodplain storage observed by GRACE Follow-On. The cyclone Amphan replenished soils with rainfall just before the monsoon rains started, and consequently, excessive runoff was produced and led to the early onset of the 2020 flooding. This study demonstrated how antecedent soil moisture conditions can influence the magnitude and duration of flooding. Continuous monitoring of storage change from GRACE Follow-On gravity measurements provides important information complementary to river gauges and well levels for enhancing hydrologic flood forecasting models and assisting surface water management.
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4
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The Assessment of Hydrologic- and Flood-Induced Land Deformation in Data-Sparse Regions Using GRACE/GRACE-FO Data Assimilation. REMOTE SENSING 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/rs13020235] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The vertical motion of the Earth’s surface is dominated by the hydrologic cycle on a seasonal scale. Accurate land deformation measurements can provide constructive insight into the regional geophysical process. Although the Global Positioning System (GPS) delivers relatively accurate measurements, GPS networks are not uniformly distributed across the globe, posing a challenge to obtaining accurate deformation information in data-sparse regions, e.g., Central South-East Asia (CSEA). Model simulations and gravity data (from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO)) have been successfully used to improve the spatial coverage. While combining model estimates and GRACE/GRACE-FO data via the GRACE/GRACE-FO data assimilation (DA) framework can potentially improve the accuracy and resolution of deformation estimates, the approach has rarely been considered or investigated thus far. This study assesses the performance of vertical displacement estimates from GRACE/GRACE-FO, the PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) hydrology model, and the GRACE/GRACE-FO DA approach (assimilating GRACE/GRACE-FO into PCR-GLOBWB) in CSEA, where measurements from six GPS sites are available for validation. The results show that GRACE/GRACE-FO, PCR-GLOBWB, and GRACE/GRACE-FO DA accurately capture regional-scale hydrologic- and flood-induced vertical displacements, with the correlation value and RMS reduction relative to GPS measurements up to 0.89 and 53%, respectively. The analyses also confirm the GRACE/GRACE-FO DA’s effectiveness in providing vertical displacement estimates consistent with GRACE/GRACE-FO data while maintaining high-spatial details of the PCR-GLOBWB model, highlighting the benefits of GRACE/GRACE-FO DA in data-sparse regions.
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5
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Zhang K, Wang Y, Gan W, Liang S. Impacts of Local Effects and Surface Loads on the Common Mode Error Filtering in Continuous GPS Measurements in the Northwest of Yunnan Province, China. SENSORS 2020; 20:s20185408. [PMID: 32967242 PMCID: PMC7570674 DOI: 10.3390/s20185408] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2020] [Revised: 09/08/2020] [Accepted: 09/15/2020] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
While seasonal hydrological mass loading, derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) measurements, shows coherent spatial patterns and is an important source for the common mode error (CME) in continuous global positioning system (cGPS) measurements in Yunnan, it is a challenge to quantify local effects and detailed changes in daily GPS measurements by using GRACE data due to its low time and spatial resolutions. In this study, we computed and compared two groups of CMEs for nine cGPS sites in the northwest Yunnan province; rCMEs were computed with the residual cGPS time series having high inter-station correlations, while oCMEs were computed with all the GPS time series. The rCMEs-filtered time series had smaller variances and larger root mean square (RMS) reductions than those that were oCMEs-filtered, and when the stations local effects were not removed, spurious transient-like signals occurred. Compared with hydrological mass loading (HYDL), its combination with non-tidal atmosphere pressure and ocean mass reached a better agreement with the CME in the vertical component, with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) increasing from 0.28 to 0.55 and the RMS reduction increasing from 15.19% to 33.4%, respectively. Our results suggest that it is necessary to evaluate the inter-station correlation and remove the possible noisy stations before conducting CME filtering, and that one should carefully choose surface loading models to correct the raw cGPS time series if CME filtering is not conducted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Keliang Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China; (Y.W.); (W.G.); (S.L.)
- Correspondence:
| | - Yuebing Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China; (Y.W.); (W.G.); (S.L.)
- Department of Geophysical Network, China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China
| | - Weijun Gan
- State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China; (Y.W.); (W.G.); (S.L.)
| | - Shiming Liang
- State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China; (Y.W.); (W.G.); (S.L.)
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6
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Newton A, Icely J, Cristina S, Perillo GME, Turner RE, Ashan D, Cragg S, Luo Y, Tu C, Li Y, Zhang H, Ramesh R, Forbes DL, Solidoro C, Béjaoui B, Gao S, Pastres R, Kelsey H, Taillie D, Nhan N, Brito AC, de Lima R, Kuenzer C. Anthropogenic, Direct Pressures on Coastal Wetlands. Front Ecol Evol 2020. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2020.00144] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
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7
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Mihajlov I, Mozumder MRH, Bostick BC, Stute M, Mailloux BJ, Knappett PSK, Choudhury I, Ahmed KM, Schlosser P, van Geen A. Arsenic contamination of Bangladesh aquifers exacerbated by clay layers. Nat Commun 2020; 11:2244. [PMID: 32382006 PMCID: PMC7205959 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-16104-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2019] [Accepted: 04/08/2020] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Confining clay layers typically protect groundwater aquifers against downward intrusion of contaminants. In the context of groundwater arsenic in Bangladesh, we challenge this notion here by showing that organic carbon drawn from a clay layer into a low-arsenic pre-Holocene (>12 kyr-old) aquifer promotes the reductive dissolution of iron oxides and the release of arsenic. The finding explains a steady rise in arsenic concentrations in a pre-Holocene aquifer below such a clay layer and the repeated failure of a structurally sound community well. Tritium measurements indicate that groundwater from the affected depth interval (40–50 m) was recharged >60 years ago. Deeper (55–65 m) groundwater in the same pre-Holocene aquifer was recharged only 10–50 years ago but is still low in arsenic. Proximity to a confining clay layer that expels organic carbon as an indirect response to groundwater pumping, rather than directly accelerated recharge, caused arsenic contamination of this pre-Holocene aquifer. Generally it is thought that confining clay layers provide protection to low-arsenic groundwaters against intrusion of shallower, high-arsenic groundwater bodies. Here, the authors show that impermeable clay layers can increase arsenic input to underlying groundwater systems due to reduction of iron oxides coupled to carbon oxidation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ivan Mihajlov
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10025, USA.,Geosyntec Consultants, Huntington Beach, CA, 92648, USA
| | - M Rajib H Mozumder
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10025, USA.,Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, 10964, USA.,Gradient, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
| | - Benjamín C Bostick
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, 10964, USA
| | - Martin Stute
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, 10964, USA.,Environmental Sciences, Barnard College, New York, NY, 10025, USA
| | - Brian J Mailloux
- Environmental Sciences, Barnard College, New York, NY, 10025, USA
| | - Peter S K Knappett
- Department of Geology & Geophysics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA
| | | | | | - Peter Schlosser
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10025, USA.,Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, 10964, USA.,School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 85281, USA
| | - Alexander van Geen
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, 10964, USA.
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8
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The 2018 Long Rainy Season in Kenya: Hydrological Changes and Correlated Land Subsidence. REMOTE SENSING 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/rs12091390] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The wettest 2018 long rainy season (March to May (MAM)) resulted in daily intensive rainfall events in East Africa that have seriously affected the environment and economy in many countries. Land subsidence is one of the environmental disasters that has occurred due to the long rainy season in Kenya for many years. However, it has received limited scientific attention. In this paper, we incorporate hydrological (soil moisture active–passive (SMAP) and loading models) and geodetic data (global positioning system (GPS) and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)) to study hydrological changes and their associated subsidence potential in Kenya. Results show that widespread subsidence of more than 20 mm was associated with the MAM season in Kenya during 2018, based on SBAS InSAR measurements. The high values of land subsidence were well correlated with the areas of intense flooding during the MAM season. The widespread subsidence during the wet season has implications for the stability of the earth’s surface during the season rather than creating the possibility of potential stresses along active faults. These stresses may trigger seismicity that is expected to pose risks to urban features. The results of the current study can help governmental authorities to adopt proper urban planning that avoids or minimizes the risks of land subsidence in the areas of sinkholes.
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9
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Water level changes, subsidence, and sea level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020; 117:1867-1876. [PMID: 31907308 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1912921117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Being one of the most vulnerable regions in the world, the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta presents a major challenge for climate change adaptation of nearly 200 million inhabitants. It is often considered as a delta mostly exposed to sea-level rise and exacerbated by land subsidence, even if the local vertical land movement rates remain uncertain. Here, we reconstruct the water-level (WL) changes over 1968 to 2012, using an unprecedented set of 101 water-level gauges across the delta. Over the last 45 y, WL in the delta increased slightly faster (∼3 mm/y), than global mean sea level (∼2 mm/y). However, from 2005 onward, we observe an acceleration in the WL rise in the west of the delta. The interannual WL fluctuations are strongly modulated by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) variability, with WL lower than average by 30 to 60 cm during co-occurrent El Niño and positive IOD events and higher-than-average WL, by 16 to 35 cm, during La Niña years. Using satellite altimetry and WL reconstructions, we estimate that the maximum expected rates of delta subsidence during 1993 to 2012 range from 1 to 7 mm/y. By 2100, even under a greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 4.5), the subsidence could double the projected sea-level rise, making it reach 85 to 140 cm across the delta. This study provides a robust regional estimate of contemporary relative WL changes in the delta induced by continental freshwater dynamics, vertical land motion, and sea-level rise, giving a basis for developing climate mitigation strategies.
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10
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An Improved GPS-Inferred Seasonal Terrestrial Water Storage Using Terrain-Corrected Vertical Crustal Displacements Constrained by GRACE. REMOTE SENSING 2019. [DOI: 10.3390/rs11121433] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Based on a geophysical model for elastic loading, the application potential of Global Positioning System (GPS) vertical crustal displacements for inverting terrestrial water storage has been demonstrated using the Tikhonov regularization and the Helmert variance component estimation since 2014. However, the GPS-inferred terrestrial water storage has larger resulting amplitudes than those inferred from satellite gravimetry (i.e., Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)) and those simulated from hydrological models (e.g., Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)). We speculate that the enlarged amplitudes should be partly due to irregularly distributed GPS stations and the neglect of the terrain effect. Within southwest China, covering part of southeastern Tibet as a study region, a novel GPS-inferred terrestrial water storage approach is proposed via terrain-corrected GPS and supplementary vertical crustal displacements inferred from GRACE, serving as "virtual GPS stations" for constraining the inversion. Compared to the Tikhonov regularization and Helmert variance component estimation, we employ Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion as an inverse method to prove the effectiveness of our solution. Our results indicate that the combined application of the terrain-corrected GPS vertical crustal displacements and supplementary GRACE spatial data constraints improves the inversion accuracy of the GPS-inferred terrestrial water storage from the Helmert variance component estimation, Tikhonov regularization, and Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion, by 55%, 33%, and 41%, respectively, when compared to that of the GLDAS-modeled terrestrial water storage. The solution inverted with Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion exhibits more stability regardless of the constraint conditions, when compared to those of other inferred solutions. The best Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion inverted solution agrees well with the GLDAS-modeled one, with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 3.75 cm, equivalent to a 15.6% relative error, when compared to 39.4% obtained in previous studies. The remaining discrepancy might be due to the difference between GPS and GRACE in sensing different surface water storage components, the remaining effect of the water storage changes in rivers and reservoirs, and the internal error in the geophysical model for elastic loading.
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11
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Annual variations of monsoon and drought detected by GPS: A case study in Yunnan, China. Sci Rep 2017; 7:5874. [PMID: 28724912 PMCID: PMC5517602 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-06095-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2017] [Accepted: 06/07/2017] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
The Global Positioning System (GPS) records monsoonal precipitable water vapor (PWV) and vertical crustal displacement (VCD) due to hydrological loading, and can thus be applied jointly to diagnose meteorological and hydrological droughts. We have analyzed the PWV and VCD observations during 2007.0–2015.0 at 26 continuous GPS stations located in Yunnan province, China. We also obtained equivalent water height (EWH) derived from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) and precipitation at these stations with the same period. Then, we quantified the annual variations of PWV, precipitation, EWH and VCD and provided empirical relationships between them. We found that GPS-derived PWV and VCD (positive means downward movement) are in phase with precipitation and GRACE-derived EWH, respectively. The annual signals of VCD and PWV show linearly correlated amplitudes and a two-month phase lag. Furthermore, the results indicate that PWV and VCD anomalies can also be used to explore drought, such as the heavy drought during winter/spring 2010. Our analysis results verify the capability of GPS to monitor monsoon variations and drought in Yunnan and show that a more comprehensive understanding of the characteristics of regional monsoon and drought can be achieved by integrating GPS-derived PWV and VCD with precipitation and GRACE-derived EWH.
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12
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Shuai P, Knappett PSK, Hossain S, Hosain A, Rhodes K, Ahmed KM, Cardenas MB. The Impact of the Degree of Aquifer Confinement and Anisotropy on Tidal Pulse Propagation. GROUND WATER 2017; 55:519-531. [PMID: 28273686 DOI: 10.1111/gwat.12509] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2016] [Revised: 01/23/2017] [Accepted: 01/28/2017] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
Oceanic tidal fluctuations which propagate long distances up coastal rivers can be exploited to constrain hydraulic properties of riverbank aquifers. These estimates, however, may be sensitive to degree of aquifer confinement and aquifer anisotropy. We analyzed the hydraulic properties of a tidally influenced aquifer along the Meghna River in Bangladesh using: (1) slug tests combined with drilling logs and surface resistivity to estimate Transmissivity (T); (2) a pumping test to estimate T and Storativity (S) and thus Aquifer Diffusivity (DPT ); and (3) the observed reduction in the amplitude and velocity of a tidal pulse to calculate D using the Jacob-Ferris analytical solution. Average Hydraulic Conductivity (K) and T estimated with slug tests and borehole lithology were 27.3 m/d and 564 m2 /d, respectively. Values of T and S determined from the pumping test ranged from 400 to 500 m2 /d and 1 to 5 × 10-4 , respectively with DPT ranging from 9 to 40 × 105 m2 /d. In contrast, D estimated from the Jacob-Ferris model ranged from 0.5 to 9 × 104 m2 /d. We hypothesized this error resulted from deviations of the real aquifer conditions from those assumed by the Jacob-Ferris model. Using a 2D numerical model tidal pulses were simulated across a range of conditions and D was calculated with the Jacob-Ferris model. Moderately confined (Ktop /Kaquifer < 0.01) or anisotropic aquifers (Kx /Kz > 10) yield D within a factor of 2 of the actual value. The order of magnitude difference in D between pumping test and Jacob-Ferris model at our site argues for little confinement or anisotropy.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Peter S K Knappett
- Department of Geology & Geophysics, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX, 77840
| | - Saddam Hossain
- Department of Geology, Dhaka University, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh
| | - Alamgir Hosain
- Department of Geology, Dhaka University, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh
| | - Kimberly Rhodes
- Water Management & Hydrologic Science, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX, 77843
| | - Kazi Matin Ahmed
- Department of Geology, Dhaka University, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh
| | - M Bayani Cardenas
- Department of Geological Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, 78712
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13
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Burgess WG, Shamsudduha M, Taylor RG, Zahid A, Ahmed KM, Mukherjee A, Lapworth DJ, Bense VF. Terrestrial water load and groundwater fluctuation in the Bengal Basin. Sci Rep 2017; 7:3872. [PMID: 28634399 PMCID: PMC5478667 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-04159-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2017] [Accepted: 05/17/2017] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Groundwater-level fluctuations represent hydraulic responses to changes in groundwater storage due to aquifer recharge and drainage as well as to changes in stress that include water mass loading and unloading above the aquifer surface. The latter 'poroelastic' response of confined aquifers is a well-established phenomenon which has been demonstrated in diverse hydrogeological environments but is frequently ignored in assessments of groundwater resources. Here we present high-frequency groundwater measurements over a twelve-month period from the tropical, fluvio-deltaic Bengal Aquifer System (BAS), the largest aquifer in south Asia. The groundwater level fluctuations are dominated by the aquifer poroelastic response to changes in terrestrial water loading by processes acting over periods ranging from hours to months; the effects of groundwater flow are subordinate. Our measurements represent the first direct, quantitative identification of loading effects on groundwater levels in the BAS. Our analysis highlights the potential limitations of hydrogeological analyses which ignore loading effects in this environment. We also demonstrate the potential for employing poroelastic responses in the BAS and across other tropical fluvio-deltaic regions as a direct, in-situ measure of changes in terrestrial water storage to complement analyses from the Gravity and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission but at much higher resolution.
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Affiliation(s)
- W G Burgess
- Department of Earth Sciences, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, UK.
| | - M Shamsudduha
- Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
| | - R G Taylor
- Department of Geography, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
| | - A Zahid
- Bangladesh Water Development Board, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - K M Ahmed
- Department of Geology, Dhaka University, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh
| | - A Mukherjee
- Department of Geology and Geophysics, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, West Bengal, 721302, India
| | - D J Lapworth
- British Geological Survey, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK
| | - V F Bense
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
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14
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Potential Seasonal Terrestrial Water Storage Monitoring from GPS Vertical Displacements: A Case Study in the Lower Three-Rivers Headwater Region, China. SENSORS 2016; 16:s16091526. [PMID: 27657064 PMCID: PMC5038799 DOI: 10.3390/s16091526] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2016] [Revised: 09/07/2016] [Accepted: 09/09/2016] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
This study uses the observed vertical displacements of Global Positioning System (GPS) time series obtained from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) with careful pre- and post-processing to estimate the seasonal crustal deformation in response to the hydrological loading in lower three-rivers headwater region of southwest China, followed by inferring the annual EWH changes through geodetic inversion methods. The Helmert Variance Component Estimation (HVCE) and the Minimum Mean Square Error (MMSE) criterion were successfully employed. The GPS inferred EWH changes agree well qualitatively with the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)-inferred and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)-inferred EWH changes, with a discrepancy of 3.2-3.9 cm and 4.8-5.2 cm, respectively. In the research areas, the EWH changes in the Lancang basin is larger than in the other regions, with a maximum of 21.8-24.7 cm and a minimum of 3.1-6.9 cm.
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15
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Knappett PSK, Mailloux BJ, Choudhury I, Khan MR, Michael HA, Barua S, Mondal DR, Steckler MS, Akhter SH, Ahmed KM, Bostick B, Harvey CF, Shamsudduha M, Shuai P, Mihajlov I, Mozumder R, van Geen A. VULNERABILITY OF LOW-ARSENIC AQUIFERS TO MUNICIPAL PUMPING IN BANGLADESH. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 2016; 539:674-686. [PMID: 28966395 PMCID: PMC5617134 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.05.035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Sandy aquifers deposited >12,000 years ago, some as shallow as 30 m, have provided a reliable supply of low-arsenic (As) drinking water in rural Bangladesh. This study concerns the potential risk of contaminating these aquifers in areas surrounding the city of Dhaka where hydraulic heads in aquifers >150 m deep have dropped by 70 m in a few decades due to municipal pumping. Water levels measured continuously from 2012 to 2014 in 12 deep (>150m), 3 intermediate (90-150 m) and 6 shallow (<90 m) community wells, 1 shallow private well, and 1 river piezometer show that the resulting drawdown cone extends 15-35 km east of Dhaka. Water levels in 4 low-As community wells within the 62-147 m depth range closest to Dhaka were inaccessible by suction for up to a third of the year. Lateral hydraulic gradients in the deep aquifer system ranged from 1.7×10-4 to 3.7×10-4 indicating flow towards Dhaka throughout 2012-2014. Vertical recharge on the edge of the drawdown cone was estimated at 0.21±0.06 m/yr. The data suggest that continued municipal pumping in Dhaka could eventually contaminate some relatively shallow community wells.
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Affiliation(s)
- P. S. K. Knappett
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964
- Department of Geology and Geophysics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843
| | - B. J. Mailloux
- Department of Environmental Science, Barnard College, New York, NY 10027
| | - I. Choudhury
- Department of Geology, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
| | - M. R. Khan
- Department of Geological Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716
| | - H. A. Michael
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716
| | - S. Barua
- Department of Geology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506
| | - D. R. Mondal
- School of Earth & Environmental Sciences, Queens College, Queens, NY 11367
| | - M. S. Steckler
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964
| | - S. H. Akhter
- Department of Geology, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
| | - K. M. Ahmed
- Department of Geology, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
| | - B. Bostick
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964
| | - C. F. Harvey
- Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139
| | - M. Shamsudduha
- Institute for Risk & Disaster Reduction, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK
| | - P. Shuai
- Department of Geology and Geophysics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843
| | - I. Mihajlov
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964
| | - R. Mozumder
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964
| | - A. van Geen
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964
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16
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Brown S, Nicholls RJ. Subsidence and human influences in mega deltas: The case of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2015; 527-528:362-74. [PMID: 25974280 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.04.124] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/28/2015] [Revised: 04/30/2015] [Accepted: 04/30/2015] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Relative sea/land level changes are fundamental to people living in deltas. Net subsidence is complex and attributed to tectonics, compaction, sedimentation and anthropogenic causes. It can have severe impacts and needs to be quantified and where possible (for subsidence due to anthropogenic causes) avoided. For the highly populated Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, a large range of net subsidence rates are described in the literature, yet the reasons behind this wide range of values are poorly understood. This paper documents and analyses rates of subsidence (for publications until 2014) and relates these findings to human influences (development). 205 point measurements of net subsidence were found, reported in 24 studies. Reported measurements were often repetitive in multiple journals, with some lacking detail as to precise location, cause and method, questioning reliability of the rate of subsidence. Rates differed by locality, methodology and period of measurement. Ten different measurement methods were recorded, with radio-carbon dating being the most common. Temporal and spatially, rates varied between -1.1mm/yr (i.e. uplift) and 43.8mm/yr. The overall mean reported rate was 5.6mm/yr, and the overall median 2.9 mm/yr, with 7.3mm/yr representing one standard deviation. These rates were reduced if inaccurate or vague records were omitted. The highest rates were recorded in the Sylhet Plateau, Dhaka and Kolkata. Highest rates were recorded in the last 1000 years, where the mean increased to 8.8mm/yr and a standard deviation of 7.5mm/yr. This could be partly due to shorter-term measurement records, or anthropogenic influence as multiple high rates are often found in urban settings. Continued development may cause rates to locally increase (e.g. due to groundwater abstraction and/or drainage). Improved monitoring is required over a wider area, to determine long-term trends, particularly as short-term records are highly variable. Focus in regions where wide spread development is occurring or is expected would be advantageous.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Brown
- Faculty of Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom; Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, United Kingdom.
| | - R J Nicholls
- Faculty of Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom; Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, United Kingdom
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17
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Kay S, Caesar J, Wolf J, Bricheno L, Nicholls RJ, Saiful Islam AKM, Haque A, Pardaens A, Lowe JA. Modelling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE. PROCESSES & IMPACTS 2015; 17:1311-22. [PMID: 26086045 DOI: 10.1039/c4em00683f] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
Coastal flooding due to storm surge and high tides is a serious risk for inhabitants of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta, as much of the land is close to sea level. Climate change could lead to large areas of land being subject to increased flooding, salinization and ultimate abandonment in West Bengal, India, and Bangladesh. IPCC 5th assessment modelling of sea level rise and estimates of subsidence rates from the EU IMPACT2C project suggest that sea level in the GBM delta region may rise by 0.63 to 0.88 m by 2090, with some studies suggesting this could be up to 0.5 m higher if potential substantial melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet is included. These sea level rise scenarios lead to increased frequency of high water coastal events. Any effect of climate change on the frequency and severity of storms can also have an effect on extreme sea levels. A shelf-sea model of the Bay of Bengal has been used to investigate how the combined effect of sea level rise and changes in other environmental conditions under climate change may alter the frequency of extreme sea level events for the period 1971 to 2099. The model was forced using atmospheric and oceanic boundary conditions derived from climate model projections and the future scenario increase in sea level was applied at its ocean boundary. The model results show an increased likelihood of extreme sea level events through the 21st century, with the frequency of events increasing greatly in the second half of the century: water levels that occurred at decadal time intervals under present-day model conditions occurred in most years by the middle of the 21st century and 3-15 times per year by 2100. The heights of the most extreme events tend to increase more in the first half of the century than the second. The modelled scenarios provide a case study of how sea level rise and other effects of climate change may combine to produce a greatly increased threat to life and property in the GBM delta by the end of this century.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Kay
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK.
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18
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Wouters B, Bonin JA, Chambers DP, Riva REM, Sasgen I, Wahr J. GRACE, time-varying gravity, Earth system dynamics and climate change. REPORTS ON PROGRESS IN PHYSICS. PHYSICAL SOCIETY (GREAT BRITAIN) 2014; 77:116801. [PMID: 25360582 DOI: 10.1088/0034-4885/77/11/116801] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Continuous observations of temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field have recently become available at an unprecedented resolution of a few hundreds of kilometers. The gravity field is a product of the Earth's mass distribution, and these data-provided by the satellites of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE)-can be used to study the exchange of mass both within the Earth and at its surface. Since the launch of the mission in 2002, GRACE data has evolved from being an experimental measurement needing validation from ground truth, to a respected tool for Earth scientists representing a fixed bound on the total change and is now an important tool to help unravel the complex dynamics of the Earth system and climate change. In this review, we present the mission concept and its theoretical background, discuss the data and give an overview of the major advances GRACE has provided in Earth science, with a focus on hydrology, solid Earth sciences, glaciology and oceanography.
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Affiliation(s)
- B Wouters
- Bristol Glaciology Centre, School of Geographical Science, Bristol, UK. Department of Physics, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
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19
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Borsa AA, Agnew DC, Cayan DR. Remote Hydrology. Ongoing drought-induced uplift in the western United States. Science 2014; 345:1587-90. [PMID: 25147281 DOI: 10.1126/science.1260279] [Citation(s) in RCA: 165] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
The western United States has been experiencing severe drought since 2013. The solid earth response to the accompanying loss of surface and near-surface water mass should be a broad region of uplift. We use seasonally adjusted time series from continuously operating global positioning system stations to measure this uplift, which we invert to estimate mass loss. The median uplift is 5 millimeters (mm), with values up to 15 mm in California's mountains. The associated pattern of mass loss, ranging up to 50 centimeters (cm) of water equivalent, is consistent with observed decreases in precipitation and streamflow. We estimate the total deficit to be ~240 gigatons, equivalent to a 10-cm layer of water over the entire region, or the annual mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adrian Antal Borsa
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
| | - Duncan Carr Agnew
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
| | - Daniel R Cayan
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA. United States Geological Survey, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
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20
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Ouellette KJ, de Linage C, Famiglietti JS. Estimating snow water equivalent from GPS vertical site-position observations in the western United States. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 2013; 49:2508-2518. [PMID: 24223442 PMCID: PMC3813979 DOI: 10.1002/wrcr.20173] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2012] [Revised: 02/12/2013] [Accepted: 02/27/2013] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
[1] Accurate estimation of the characteristics of the winter snowpack is crucial for prediction of available water supply, flooding, and climate feedbacks. Remote sensing of snow has been most successful for quantifying the spatial extent of the snowpack, although satellite estimation of snow water equivalent (SWE), fractional snow covered area, and snow depth is improving. Here we show that GPS observations of vertical land surface loading reveal seasonal responses of the land surface to the total weight of snow, providing information about the stored SWE. We demonstrate that the seasonal signal in Scripps Orbit and Permanent Array Center (SOPAC) GPS vertical land surface position time series at six locations in the western United States is driven by elastic loading of the crust by the snowpack. GPS observations of land surface deformation are then used to predict the water load as a function of time at each location of interest and compared for validation to nearby Snowpack Telemetry observations of SWE. Estimates of soil moisture are included in the analysis and result in considerable improvement in the prediction of SWE. Citation: Ouellette, K. J., C. de Linage, and J. S. Famiglietti (2013), Estimating snow water equivalent from GPS vertical site-position observations in the western United States, Water Resour. Res., 49, 2508-2518, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20173.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karli J Ouellette
- Department of Earth System Science, University of CaliforniaIrvine, Irvine, California, USA
| | - Caroline de Linage
- Department of Earth System Science, University of CaliforniaIrvine, Irvine, California, USA
| | - James S Famiglietti
- Department of Earth System Science, University of CaliforniaIrvine, Irvine, California, USA
- UC Center for Hydrologic Modeling, University of CaliforniaIrvine, Irvine, California, USA
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21
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Nahmani S, Bock O, Bouin MN, Santamaría-Gómez A, Boy JP, Collilieux X, Métivier L, Panet I, Genthon P, de Linage C, Wöppelmann G. Hydrological deformation induced by the West African Monsoon: Comparison of GPS, GRACE and loading models. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jb009102] [Citation(s) in RCA: 66] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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22
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Fu Y, Freymueller JT. Seasonal and long-term vertical deformation in the Nepal Himalaya constrained by GPS and GRACE measurements. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jb008925] [Citation(s) in RCA: 144] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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