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Brown TFM, Bannister MT, Revell LE. Envisioning a sustainable future for space launches: a review of current research and policy. J R Soc N Z 2023. [DOI: 10.1080/03036758.2022.2152467] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Tyler F. M. Brown
- Te Kura Matū School of Physical and Chemical Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Michele T. Bannister
- Te Kura Matū School of Physical and Chemical Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Laura E. Revell
- Te Kura Matū School of Physical and Chemical Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
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Garcia RR. On the response of the middle atmosphere to anthropogenic forcing. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2021; 1504:25-43. [PMID: 34263936 DOI: 10.1111/nyas.14664] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2020] [Revised: 06/21/2021] [Accepted: 06/23/2021] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
Anthropogenic forcing of the atmosphere by greenhouse gases (GHG) and ozone-depleting substances has provided an unintended test of the robustness of current understanding of the physics and chemistry of the middle atmosphere, that is, the stratosphere and mesosphere. We explore this topic by examining how well anthropogenic changes can be simulated by modern, comprehensive numerical models. Specifically, we discuss the simulations of trends in global mean temperature; the development of the ozone hole and its impact on the dynamics of the Southern Hemisphere, both in the stratosphere and troposphere; trends in the stratospheric Brewer-Dobson circulation; and the response of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to increasing burdens of CO2 . We find that, in most of these cases, numerical simulation is able to reproduce observed changes and provide physical insights into the relevant mechanisms. Simulation of the QBO is on a less firm footing. Although many numerical models can now generate realistic QBOs, future projections of its behavior under the increasing burdens of GHG are inconsistent and even contradictory.
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Polvani LM, Wang L, Abalos M, Butchart N, Chipperfield MP, Dameris M, Deushi M, Dhomse SS, Jöckel P, Kinnison D, Michou M, Morgenstern O, Oman LD, Plummer DA, Stone KA. Large impacts, past and future, of ozone-depleting substances on Brewer-Dobson circulation trends: A multi-model assessment. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH. ATMOSPHERES : JGR 2019; 124:6669-6680. [PMID: 31632893 PMCID: PMC6800672 DOI: 10.1029/2018jd029516] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2018] [Accepted: 05/08/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Substantial increases in the atmospheric concentration of well-mixed greenhouse gases (notably CO2), such as those projected to occur by the end of the 21st century under large radiative forcing scenarios, have long been known to cause an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) in climate models. More recently, however, several single-model studies have proposed that ozone-depleting substances might also be important drivers of BDC trends. As these studies were conducted with different forcings over different periods, it is difficult to combine them to obtain a robust quantitative picture of the relative importance of ozone-depleting substances as drivers of BDC trends. To this end we here analyze - over identical past and future periods - the output from 20 similarly-forced models, gathered from two recent chemistry-climate modeling intercomparison projects. Our multi-model analysis reveals that ozone-depleting substances are responsible for more than half of the modeled BDC trends in the two decades 1980-2000. We also find that, as a consequence of the Montreal Protocol, decreasing concentrations of ozone-depleting substances in coming decades will strongly decelerate the BDC until the year 2080, reducing the age-of-air trends by more than half, and will thus substantially mitigate the impact of increasing CO2. As ozone-depleting substances impact BDC trends, primarily, via the depletion/recovery of stratospheric ozone over the South Pole, they impart seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries to the trends which may offer opportunities for detection in coming decades.
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Affiliation(s)
- L M Polvani
- Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY USA
- Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY USA
- National Center for Atmospheric Reseach, Boulder, CO USA
| | - L Wang
- Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY USA
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - M Abalos
- Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - N Butchart
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon, UK
| | | | - M Dameris
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
| | - M Deushi
- Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - S S Dhomse
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK
| | - P Jöckel
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
| | - D Kinnison
- National Center for Atmospheric Reseach, Boulder, CO USA
| | - M Michou
- Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France
| | - O Morgenstern
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - L D Oman
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD USA
| | - D A Plummer
- Climate Research Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, QC Canada
| | - K A Stone
- School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
- ARC Centre of Excellence in Climate Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
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Stratospheric Aerosols from Major Volcanic Eruptions: A Composition-Climate Model Study of the Aerosol Cloud Dispersal and e-folding Time. ATMOSPHERE 2016. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos7060075] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
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5
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A Modelling Study of the Impact of On-Road Diesel Emissions on Arctic Black Carbon and Solar Radiation Transfer. ATMOSPHERE 2015. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos6030318] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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van Dijk A, Slaper H, den Outer PN, Morgenstern O, Braesicke P, Pyle JA, Garny H, Stenke A, Dameris M, Kazantzidis A, Tourpali K, Bais AF. Skin Cancer Risks Avoided by the Montreal Protocol-Worldwide Modeling Integrating Coupled Climate-Chemistry Models with a Risk Model for UV. Photochem Photobiol 2012; 89:234-46. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1751-1097.2012.01223.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2012] [Accepted: 08/08/2012] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Hella Garny
- DLR; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft und Raumfahrt; Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre; Wessling; Germany
| | - Andrea Stenke
- DLR; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft und Raumfahrt; Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre; Wessling; Germany
| | - Martin Dameris
- DLR; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft und Raumfahrt; Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre; Wessling; Germany
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Douglass AR, Stolarski RS, Strahan SE, Oman LD. Understanding differences in upper stratospheric ozone response to changes in chlorine and temperature as computed using CCMVal-2 models. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2012jd017483] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Wang L, Waugh DW. Chemistry-climate model simulations of recent trends in lower stratospheric temperature and stratospheric residual circulation. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jd017130] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Strahan SE, Douglass AR, Stolarski RS, Akiyoshi H, Bekki S, Braesicke P, Butchart N, Chipperfield MP, Cugnet D, Dhomse S, Frith SM, Gettelman A, Hardiman SC, Kinnison DE, Lamarque JF, Mancini E, Marchand M, Michou M, Morgenstern O, Nakamura T, Olivié D, Pawson S, Pitari G, Plummer DA, Pyle JA, Scinocca JF, Shepherd TG, Shibata K, Smale D, Teyssèdre H, Tian W, Yamashita Y. Using transport diagnostics to understand chemistry climate model ozone simulations. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd015360] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Forster PM, Fomichev VI, Rozanov E, Cagnazzo C, Jonsson AI, Langematz U, Fomin B, Iacono MJ, Mayer B, Mlawer E, Myhre G, Portmann RW, Akiyoshi H, Falaleeva V, Gillett N, Karpechko A, Li J, Lemennais P, Morgenstern O, Oberländer S, Sigmond M, Shibata K. Evaluation of radiation scheme performance within chemistry climate models. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd015361] [Citation(s) in RCA: 69] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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11
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Butchart N, Charlton-Perez AJ, Cionni I, Hardiman SC, Haynes PH, Krüger K, Kushner PJ, Newman PA, Osprey SM, Perlwitz J, Sigmond M, Wang L, Akiyoshi H, Austin J, Bekki S, Baumgaertner A, Braesicke P, Brühl C, Chipperfield M, Dameris M, Dhomse S, Eyring V, Garcia R, Garny H, Jöckel P, Lamarque JF, Marchand M, Michou M, Morgenstern O, Nakamura T, Pawson S, Plummer D, Pyle J, Rozanov E, Scinocca J, Shepherd TG, Shibata K, Smale D, Teyssèdre H, Tian W, Waugh D, Yamashita Y. Multimodel climate and variability of the stratosphere. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd014995] [Citation(s) in RCA: 129] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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12
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Oman LD, Plummer DA, Waugh DW, Austin J, Scinocca JF, Douglass AR, Salawitch RJ, Canty T, Akiyoshi H, Bekki S, Braesicke P, Butchart N, Chipperfield MP, Cugnet D, Dhomse S, Eyring V, Frith S, Hardiman SC, Kinnison DE, Lamarque JF, Mancini E, Marchand M, Michou M, Morgenstern O, Nakamura T, Nielsen JE, Olivié D, Pitari G, Pyle J, Rozanov E, Shepherd TG, Shibata K, Stolarski RS, Teyssèdre H, Tian W, Yamashita Y, Ziemke JR. Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd014362] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- L. D. Oman
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Greenbelt Maryland USA
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences; Johns Hopkins University; Baltimore Maryland USA
| | - D. A. Plummer
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis; Victoria, British Columbia Canada
| | - D. W. Waugh
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences; Johns Hopkins University; Baltimore Maryland USA
| | - J. Austin
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; Princeton New Jersey USA
| | - J. F. Scinocca
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis; Victoria, British Columbia Canada
| | - A. R. Douglass
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Greenbelt Maryland USA
| | - R. J. Salawitch
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry; University of Maryland; College Park Maryland USA
| | - T. Canty
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry; University of Maryland; College Park Maryland USA
| | - H. Akiyoshi
- National Institute for Environmental Studies; Tsukuba Japan
| | | | - P. Braesicke
- NCAS-Climate-Chemistry, Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Chemistry; University of Cambridge; Cambridge UK
| | | | | | | | - S. Dhomse
- School of Earth and Environment; University of Leeds; Leeds UK
| | - V. Eyring
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt; Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre; Oberpfaffenhofen Germany
| | - S. Frith
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Greenbelt Maryland USA
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc.; Lanham Maryland USA
| | | | | | | | - E. Mancini
- Dipartimento di Fisica; University of L'Aquila; L'Aquila Italy
| | | | - M. Michou
- GAME/CNRM, Météo-France, CNRS; Toulouse France
| | - O. Morgenstern
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research; Lauder New Zealand
| | - T. Nakamura
- National Institute for Environmental Studies; Tsukuba Japan
| | - J. E. Nielsen
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Greenbelt Maryland USA
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc.; Lanham Maryland USA
| | - D. Olivié
- GAME/CNRM, Météo-France, CNRS; Toulouse France
| | - G. Pitari
- Dipartimento di Fisica; University of L'Aquila; L'Aquila Italy
| | - J. Pyle
- NCAS-Climate-Chemistry, Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Chemistry; University of Cambridge; Cambridge UK
| | - E. Rozanov
- Physical-Meteorological Observatory Davos, World Radiation Center; Davos Switzerland
- IAC, ETHZ; Zurich Switzerland
| | - T. G. Shepherd
- Department of Physics; University of Toronto; Toronto, Ontario Canada
| | - K. Shibata
- Meteorological Research Institute; Japan Meteorological Agency; Tsukuba Japan
| | - R. S. Stolarski
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Greenbelt Maryland USA
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences; Johns Hopkins University; Baltimore Maryland USA
| | | | - W. Tian
- School of Earth and Environment; University of Leeds; Leeds UK
| | - Y. Yamashita
- National Institute for Environmental Studies; Tsukuba Japan
| | - J. R. Ziemke
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Greenbelt Maryland USA
- Goddard Earth Sciences and Technology Center; University of Maryland, Baltimore County; Catonsville Maryland USA
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Ray EA, Moore FL, Rosenlof KH, Davis SM, Boenisch H, Morgenstern O, Smale D, Rozanov E, Hegglin M, Pitari G, Mancini E, Braesicke P, Butchart N, Hardiman S, Li F, Shibata K, Plummer DA. Evidence for changes in stratospheric transport and mixing over the past three decades based on multiple data sets and tropical leaky pipe analysis. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd014206] [Citation(s) in RCA: 65] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Austin J, Struthers H, Scinocca J, Plummer DA, Akiyoshi H, Baumgaertner AJG, Bekki S, Bodeker GE, Braesicke P, Brühl C, Butchart N, Chipperfield MP, Cugnet D, Dameris M, Dhomse S, Frith S, Garny H, Gettelman A, Hardiman SC, Jöckel P, Kinnison D, Kubin A, Lamarque JF, Langematz U, Mancini E, Marchand M, Michou M, Morgenstern O, Nakamura T, Nielsen JE, Pitari G, Pyle J, Rozanov E, Shepherd TG, Shibata K, Smale D, Teyssèdre H, Yamashita Y. Chemistry-climate model simulations of spring Antarctic ozone. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2009jd013577] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Hegglin MI, Gettelman A, Hoor P, Krichevsky R, Manney GL, Pan LL, Son SW, Stiller G, Tilmes S, Walker KA, Eyring V, Shepherd TG, Waugh D, Akiyoshi H, Añel JA, Austin J, Baumgaertner A, Bekki S, Braesicke P, Brühl C, Butchart N, Chipperfield M, Dameris M, Dhomse S, Frith S, Garny H, Hardiman SC, Jöckel P, Kinnison DE, Lamarque JF, Mancini E, Michou M, Morgenstern O, Nakamura T, Olivié D, Pawson S, Pitari G, Plummer DA, Pyle JA, Rozanov E, Scinocca JF, Shibata K, Smale D, Teyssèdre H, Tian W, Yamashita Y. Multimodel assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Extratropics. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd013884] [Citation(s) in RCA: 63] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Gettelman A, Hegglin MI, Son SW, Kim J, Fujiwara M, Birner T, Kremser S, Rex M, Añel JA, Akiyoshi H, Austin J, Bekki S, Braesike P, Brühl C, Butchart N, Chipperfield M, Dameris M, Dhomse S, Garny H, Hardiman SC, Jöckel P, Kinnison DE, Lamarque JF, Mancini E, Marchand M, Michou M, Morgenstern O, Pawson S, Pitari G, Plummer D, Pyle JA, Rozanov E, Scinocca J, Shepherd TG, Shibata K, Smale D, Teyssèdre H, Tian W. Multimodel assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Tropics and global trends. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2009jd013638] [Citation(s) in RCA: 155] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Son SW, Gerber EP, Perlwitz J, Polvani LM, Gillett NP, Seo KH, Eyring V, Shepherd TG, Waugh D, Akiyoshi H, Austin J, Baumgaertner A, Bekki S, Braesicke P, Brühl C, Butchart N, Chipperfield MP, Cugnet D, Dameris M, Dhomse S, Frith S, Garny H, Garcia R, Hardiman SC, Jöckel P, Lamarque JF, Mancini E, Marchand M, Michou M, Nakamura T, Morgenstern O, Pitari G, Plummer DA, Pyle J, Rozanov E, Scinocca JF, Shibata K, Smale D, Teyssèdre H, Tian W, Yamashita Y. Impact of stratospheric ozone on Southern Hemisphere circulation change: A multimodel assessment. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd014271] [Citation(s) in RCA: 248] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Gerber EP, Baldwin MP, Akiyoshi H, Austin J, Bekki S, Braesicke P, Butchart N, Chipperfield M, Dameris M, Dhomse S, Frith SM, Garcia RR, Garny H, Gettelman A, Hardiman SC, Karpechko A, Marchand M, Morgenstern O, Nielsen JE, Pawson S, Peter T, Plummer DA, Pyle JA, Rozanov E, Scinocca JF, Shepherd TG, Smale D. Stratosphere-troposphere coupling and annular mode variability in chemistry-climate models. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2009jd013770] [Citation(s) in RCA: 98] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Morgenstern O, Akiyoshi H, Bekki S, Braesicke P, Butchart N, Chipperfield MP, Cugnet D, Deushi M, Dhomse SS, Garcia RR, Gettelman A, Gillett NP, Hardiman SC, Jumelet J, Kinnison DE, Lamarque JF, Lott F, Marchand M, Michou M, Nakamura T, Olivié D, Peter T, Plummer D, Pyle JA, Rozanov E, Saint-Martin D, Scinocca JF, Shibata K, Sigmond M, Smale D, Teyssèdre H, Tian W, Voldoire A, Yamashita Y. Anthropogenic forcing of the Northern Annular Mode in CCMVal-2 models. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2009jd013347] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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