1
|
Oman LD, Douglass AR, Salawitch RJ, Canty TP, Ziemke JR, Manyin M. The Effect of Representing Bromine from VSLS on the Simulation and Evolution of Antarctic Ozone. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 2016; 43:9869-9876. [PMID: 29551840 PMCID: PMC5854488 DOI: 10.1002/2016gl070471] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
We use the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM), a contributor to both the 2010 and 2014 WMO Ozone Assessment Reports, to show that inclusion of 5 parts per trillion (ppt) of stratospheric bromine (Bry) from very short-lived substances (VSLS) is responsible for about a decade delay in ozone hole recovery. These results partially explain the significantly later recovery of Antarctic ozone noted in the 2014 report, as bromine from VSLS was not included in the 2010 Assessment. We show multiple lines of evidence that simulations that account for VSLS Bry are in better agreement with both total column BrO and the seasonal evolution of Antarctic ozone reported by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA's Aura satellite. In addition, the near zero ozone levels observed in the deep Antarctic lower stratospheric polar vortex are only reproduced in a simulation that includes this Bry source from VSLS.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Luke D. Oman
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | | | | | | | - Jerald R. Ziemke
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
- Morgan State University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Michael Manyin
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD, USA
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Aquila V, Swartz WH, Waugh DW, Colarco PR, Pawson S, Polvani LM, Stolarski RS. Isolating the roles of different forcing agents in global stratospheric temperature changes using model integrations with incrementally added single forcings. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH. ATMOSPHERES : JGR 2016; 121:8067-8082. [PMID: 29593948 PMCID: PMC5868970 DOI: 10.1002/2015jd023841] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Satellite instruments show a cooling of global stratospheric temperatures over the whole data record (1979-2014). This cooling is not linear, and includes two descending steps in the early 1980s and mid-1990s. The 1979-1995 period is characterized by increasing concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODS) and by the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichón (1982) and Mount Pinatubo (1991). The 1995-present period is characterized by decreasing ODS concentrations and by the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations increase over the whole time period. In order to isolate the roles of different forcing agents in the global stratospheric temperature changes, we performed a set of AMIP-style simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). We find that in our model simulations the cooling of the stratosphere from 1979 to present is mostly driven by changes in GHG concentrations in the middle and upper stratosphere and by GHG and ODS changes in the lower stratosphere. While the cooling trend caused by increasing GHGs is roughly constant over the satellite era, changing ODS concentrations cause a significant stratospheric cooling only up to the mid-1990s, when they start to decrease because of the implementation of the Montreal Protocol. Sporadic volcanic events and the solar cycle have a distinct signature in the time series of stratospheric temperature anomalies but do not play a statistically significant role in the long-term trends from 1979 to 2014. Several factors combine to produce the step-like behavior in the stratospheric temperatures: in the lower stratosphere, the flattening starting in the mid 1990's is due to the decrease in ozone depleting substances; Mount Pinatubo and the solar cycle cause the abrupt steps through the aerosol-associated warming and the volcanically induced ozone depletion. In the middle and upper stratosphere, changes in solar irradiance are largely responsible for the step-like behavior of global temperatures anomalies, together with volcanically induced ozone depletion and water vapor increases in the post-Pinatubo years.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- V Aquila
- Goddard Earth Science Technology & Research (GESTAR), Columbia, MD
- Johns Hopkins University, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Baltimore, MD
- Laboratory for Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics (Code 614), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD
| | - W H Swartz
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD
| | - D W Waugh
- Johns Hopkins University, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Baltimore, MD
| | - P R Colarco
- Laboratory for Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics (Code 614), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD
| | - S Pawson
- Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD
| | | | - R S Stolarski
- Johns Hopkins University, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Baltimore, MD
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Li F, Vikhliaev YV, Newman PA, Pawson S, Perlwitz J, Waugh DW, Douglass AR. Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System - Version 5 (GEOS-5). JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 2016; 29:3199-3218. [PMID: 32742076 PMCID: PMC7394345 DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-15-0572.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer's evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the prescribed ozone underestimates Antarctic ozone depletion and lacks zonal asymmetries. In this study we investigate the impact of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on climate change simulations of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. Two sets of 1960-2010 ensemble transient simulations are conducted with the coupled ocean version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model version 5: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with prescribed ozone derived from the same interactive simulations. The model's climatology is evaluated using observations and reanalysis. Comparison of the 1979-2010 climate trends between these two simulations reveals that interactive chemistry has important effects on climate change not only in the Antarctic stratosphere, troposphere and surface, but also in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice. Interactive chemistry causes stronger Antarctic lower stratosphere cooling and circumpolar westerly acceleration during November-December-January. It enhances stratosphere-troposphere coupling and leads to significantly larger tropospheric and surface westerly changes. The significantly stronger surface wind-stress trends cause larger increases of the Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation, leading to year-round stronger ocean warming near the surface and enhanced Antarctic sea ice decrease.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Feng Li
- Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, Maryland, USA
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Yury V. Vikhliaev
- Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, Maryland, USA
- Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Paul A. Newman
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Steven Pawson
- Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Judith Perlwitz
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, and Physical Sciences Division, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Darryn W. Waugh
- Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Anne R. Douglass
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Dessler AE, Ye H, Wang T, Schoeberl MR, Oman LD, Douglass AR, Butler AH, Rosenlof KH, Davis SM, Portmann RW. Transport of ice into the stratosphere and the humidification of the stratosphere over the 21 st century. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 2016; 43:2323-2329. [PMID: 29551841 PMCID: PMC5854491 DOI: 10.1002/2016gl067991] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Climate models predict that tropical lower-stratospheric humidity will increase as the climate warms. We examine this trend in two state-of-the-art chemistry-climate models. Under high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the stratospheric entry value of water vapor increases by ~1 part per million by volume (ppmv) over this century in both models. We show with trajectory runs driven by model meteorological fields that the warming tropical tropopause layer (TTL) explains 50-80% of this increase. The remainder is a consequence of trends in evaporation of ice convectively lofted into the TTL and lower stratosphere. Our results further show that, within the models we examined, ice lofting is primarily important on long time scales - on interannual time scales, TTL temperature variations explain most of the variations in lower stratospheric humidity. Assessing the ability of models to realistically represent ice-lofting processes should be a high priority in the modeling community.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- A E Dessler
- Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX
| | - H Ye
- Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX
| | - T Wang
- NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory / Caltech, Pasadena, CA
| | | | - L D Oman
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD
| | | | - A H Butler
- NOAA Earth System Research Lab, Boulder, CO
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO
| | | | - S M Davis
- NOAA Earth System Research Lab, Boulder, CO
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO
| | | |
Collapse
|
5
|
Comparative Spectral Analysis and Correlation Properties of Observed and Simulated Total Column Ozone Records. ATMOSPHERE 2013. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos4020198] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
|