Opportunistic experiments to constrain aerosol effective radiative forcing

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The nonlinearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in observed relationships of aerosol radiative forcing. Using correlations to infer causality can be challenging when meteorological variability also drives both aerosol and cloud changes independently. Natural and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations from well-defined sources provide "opportunistic experiments" (also known as natural experiments) to investigate ACI in cases where causality may be more confidently inferred. These perturbations cover a wide range of locations and spatiotemporal scales, including point sources such as volcanic eruptions or industrial sources, plumes from biomass burning or forest fires, and tracks from individual ships or shipping corridors. We review the different experimental conditions and conduct a synthesis of the available satellite datasets and field campaigns to place these opportunistic experiments on a common footing, facilitating new insights and a clearer understanding of key uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing. Cloud albedo perturbations are strongly sensitive to background meteorological conditions. Strong liquid water path increases due to aerosol perturbations are largely ruled out by averaging across experiments. Opportunistic experiments have significantly improved process-level understanding of ACI, but it remains unclear how reliably the relationships found can be scaled to the global level, thus demonstrating a need for deeper investigation in order to improve assessments of aerosol radiative forcing and climate change.

Realism of Lagrangian Large Eddy Simulations Driven by Reanalysis Meteorology: Tracking a Pocket of Open Cells Under a Biomass Burning Aerosol Layer

An approach to drive Lagrangian large eddy simulation (LES) of boundary layer clouds with reanalysis data is presented and evaluated using satellite (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager, SEVIRI) and aircraft (Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation Interactions and Forcing, CLARIFY) measurements. The simulations follow trajectories of the boundary layer flow. They track the formation and evolution of a pocket of open cells (POC) underneath a biomass burning aerosol layer in the free troposphere. The simulations reproduce the evolution of observed stratocumulus cloud morphology, cloud optical depth, and cloud drop effective radius, and capture the timing of the cloud state transition from closed to open cells seen in the satellite imagery on the three considered trajectories. They reproduce a biomass burning aerosol layer identified by the in-situ aircraft measurements above the inversion of the POC. Entrainment of aerosol from the biomass burning layer into the POC is limited to the extent of having no impact on cloud- or boundary layer properties, in agreement with the CLARIFY observations. The two-moment bin microphysics scheme used in the simulations reproduces the in-situ cloud microphysical properties reasonably well. A two-moment bulk microphysics scheme reproduces the satellite observations in the non-precipitating closed-cell state, but overestimates liquid water path and cloud optical depth in the precipitating open-cell state due to insufficient surface precipitation. A boundary layer cold and dry bias occurring in LES can be counteracted by reducing the grid aspect ratio and by tightening the large scale wind speed nudging towards the surface.

Chemical Interactions Between Ship-Originated Air Pollutants and Ocean-Emitted Halogens

Ocean-going ships supply products from one region to another and contribute to the world's economy. Ship exhaust contains many air pollutants and results in significant changes in marine atmospheric composition. The role of reactive halogen species (RHS) in the troposphere has received increasing recognition and oceans are the largest contributors to their atmospheric burden. However, the impact of shipping emissions on RHS and that of RHS on ship-originated air pollutants have not been studied in detail. Here, an updated Weather Research Forecasting coupled with Chemistry model is utilized to explore the chemical interactions between ship emissions and oceanic RHS over the East Asia seas in summer. The emissions and resulting chemical transformations from shipping activities increase the level of NO and NO2 at the surface, increase O3 in the South China Sea, but decrease O3 in the East China Sea. Such changes in pollutants result in remarkable changes in the levels of RHS (>200% increase of chlorine; ∼30% and ∼5% decrease of bromine and iodine, respectively) as well as in their partitioning. The abundant RHS, in turn, reshape the loadings of air pollutants (∼20% decrease of NO and NO2; ∼15% decrease of O3) and those of the oxidants (>10% reduction of OH and HO2; ∼40% decrease of NO3) with marked patterns along the ship tracks. We, therefore, suggest that these important chemical interactions of ship-originated emissions with RHS should be considered in the environmental policy assessments of the role of shipping emissions in air quality and climate.

Characterization of Aerosol Hygroscopicity Over the Northeast Pacific Ocean: Impacts on Prediction of CCN and Stratocumulus Cloud Droplet Number Concentrations

During the Marine Aerosol Cloud and Wildfire Study (MACAWS) in June and July of 2018, aerosol composition and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) properties were measured over the N.E. Pacific to characterize the influence of aerosol hygroscopicity on predictions of ambient CCN and stratocumulus cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC). Three vertical regions were characterized, corresponding to the marine boundary layer (MBL), an above-cloud organic aerosol layer (AC-OAL), and the free troposphere (FT) above the AC-OAL. The aerosol hygroscopicity parameter (κ) was calculated from CCN measurements (κ CCN) and bulk aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) measurements (κ AMS). Within the MBL, measured hygroscopicities varied between values typical of both continental environments (~0.2) and remote marine locations (~0.7). For most flights, CCN closure was achieved within 20% in the MBL. For five of the seven flights, assuming a constant aerosol size distribution produced similar or better CCN closure than assuming a constant "marine" hygroscopicity (κ = 0.72). An aerosol-cloud parcel model was used to characterize the sensitivity of predicted stratocumulus CDNC to aerosol hygroscopicity, size distribution properties, and updraft velocity. Average CDNC sensitivity to accumulation mode aerosol hygroscopicity is 39% as large as the sensitivity to the geometric median diameter in this environment. Simulations suggest CDNC sensitivity to hygroscopicity is largest in marine stratocumulus with low updraft velocities (<0.2 m s-1), where accumulation mode particles are most relevant to CDNC, and in marine stratocumulus or cumulus with large updraft velocities (>0.6 m s-1), where hygroscopic properties of the Aitken mode dominate hygroscopicity sensitivity.

Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable, and arguable lines of evidence, including modeling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol-driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed-phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of -1.6 to -0.6 W m-2, or -2.0 to -0.4 W m-2 with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted toward more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial-era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds.

Aerosol-driven droplet concentrations dominate coverage and water of oceanic low-level clouds

A lack of reliable estimates of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) aerosols over oceans has severely limited our ability to quantify their effects on cloud properties and extent of cooling by reflecting solar radiation-a key uncertainty in anthropogenic climate forcing. We introduce a methodology for ascribing cloud properties to CCN and isolating the aerosol effects from meteorological effects. Its application showed that for a given meteorology, CCN explains three-fourths of the variability in the radiative cooling effect of clouds, mainly through affecting shallow cloud cover and water path. This reveals a much greater sensitivity of cloud radiative forcing to CCN than previously reported, which means too much cooling if incorporated into present climate models. This suggests the existence of compensating aerosol warming effects yet to be discovered, possibly through deep clouds.