1
|
He H, Kramer RJ, Soden BJ, Jeevanjee N. State dependence of CO 2 forcing and its implications for climate sensitivity. Science 2023; 382:1051-1056. [PMID: 38033059 DOI: 10.1126/science.abq6872] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2022] [Accepted: 10/30/2023] [Indexed: 12/02/2023]
Abstract
When evaluating the effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) changes on Earth's climate, it is widely assumed that instantaneous radiative forcing from a doubling of a given CO2 concentration (IRF2×CO2) is constant and that variances in climate sensitivity arise from differences in radiative feedbacks or dependence of these feedbacks on the climatological base state. Here, we show that the IRF2×CO2 is not constant, but rather depends on the climatological base state, increasing by about 25% for every doubling of CO2, and has increased by about 10% since the preindustrial era primarily due to the cooling within the upper stratosphere, implying a proportionate increase in climate sensitivity. This base-state dependence also explains about half of the intermodel spread in IRF2×CO2, a problem that has persisted among climate models for nearly three decades.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Haozhe He
- Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA
| | - Ryan J Kramer
- Goddard Earth Science Technology and Research II, University of Maryland at Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD, USA
- Climate and Radiation Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Brian J Soden
- Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA
| | | |
Collapse
|
2
|
Polvani LM, Keeble J, Banerjee A, Checa-Garcia R, Chiodo G, Rieder HE, Rosenlof KH. No evidence of worsening Arctic springtime ozone losses over the 21st century. Nat Commun 2023; 14:1608. [PMID: 36964124 PMCID: PMC10039004 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37134-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2022] [Accepted: 03/03/2023] [Indexed: 03/26/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- L M Polvani
- Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA.
| | - J Keeble
- Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - A Banerjee
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
- Chemical Sciences Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - R Checa-Garcia
- Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria
| | - G Chiodo
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - H E Rieder
- Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria
| | - K H Rosenlof
- Chemical Sciences Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, USA
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Ladstädter F, Steiner AK, Gleisner H. Resolving the 21st century temperature trends of the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere with satellite observations. Sci Rep 2023; 13:1306. [PMID: 36693881 PMCID: PMC9873623 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-28222-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2022] [Accepted: 01/16/2023] [Indexed: 01/25/2023] Open
Abstract
Historically, observational information about atmospheric temperature has been limited due to a lack of suitable measurements. Recent advances in satellite observations provide new insight into the fine structure of the free atmosphere, with the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere comprising essential components of the climate system. This is a prerequisite for understanding the complex processes of this part of the atmosphere, which is also known to have a large impact on surface climate. With unprecedented resolution, latest climate observations reveal a dramatic warming of the atmosphere. The tropical upper troposphere has already warmed about 1 K during the first two decades of the 21st century. The tropospheric warming extends into the lower stratosphere in the tropics and southern hemisphere mid-latitudes, forming a prominent hemispheric asymmetry in the temperature trend structure. Together with seasonal trend patterns in the stratosphere, this indicates a possible change in stratospheric circulation.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Florian Ladstädter
- grid.5110.50000000121539003Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
| | - Andrea K. Steiner
- grid.5110.50000000121539003Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
| | - Hans Gleisner
- grid.14170.33Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, Copenhagen, Denmark
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Australian wildfires cause the largest stratospheric warming since Pinatubo and extends the lifetime of the Antarctic ozone hole. Sci Rep 2022; 12:12665. [PMID: 36008428 PMCID: PMC9411169 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-15794-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2022] [Accepted: 06/29/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Global mean lower stratosphere temperatures rose abruptly in January 2020 reaching values not experienced since the early 1990s. Anomalously high lower stratospheric temperatures were recorded for 4 months at highly statistically significant levels. Here, we use a combination of satellite and surface-based remote sensing observations to derive a time-series of stratospheric biomass burning aerosol optical depths originating from intense SouthEastern Australian wildfires and use these aerosol optical depths in a state-of-the-art climate model. We show that the S.E. Australian wildfires are the cause of this lower stratospheric warming. We also investigate the radiatively-driven dynamical response to the observed stratospheric ozone perturbation and find a significant strengthening of the springtime Antarctic polar vortex suggesting that biomass burning aerosols play a significant role in the observed anomalous longevity of the ozone hole in 2020.
Collapse
|
5
|
Meng L, Liu J, Tarasick DW, Randel WJ, Steiner AK, Wilhelmsen H, Wang L, Haimberger L. Continuous rise of the tropopause in the Northern Hemisphere over 1980-2020. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2021; 7:eabi8065. [PMID: 34739322 PMCID: PMC8570593 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abi8065] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2021] [Accepted: 09/17/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Tropopause height (H) is a sensitive diagnostic for anthropogenic climate change. Previous studies showed increases in H over 1980–2000 but were inconsistent in projecting H trends after 2000. While H generally responds to temperature changes in the troposphere and stratosphere, the relative importance of these two contributions is uncertain. Here, we use radiosonde balloon observations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) over 20°N to 80°N to reveal a continuous rise of H over 1980–2020. Over 2001–2020, H increases at 50 to 60 m/decade, which is comparable to the trend over 1980–2000. The GPS radio occultation measurements from satellites and homogenized radiosonde records are in good agreement with those results. The continuous rise of the tropopause in the NH after 2000 results primarily from tropospheric warming. A large trend in H remains after major natural forcings for H are removed, providing further observational evidence for anthropogenic climate change.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lingyun Meng
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
- International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
| | - Jane Liu
- Department of Geography and Planning, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
- Key Laboratory for Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Processes of the Ministry of Education, College of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, China
| | - David W. Tarasick
- Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Downsview, ON M3H 5T4, Canada
| | | | - Andrea K. Steiner
- Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
- Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics, and Meteorology/Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
- FWF-DK Climate Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
| | - Hallgeir Wilhelmsen
- Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
- Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics, and Meteorology/Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
- FWF-DK Climate Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
| | - Lei Wang
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Shanghai Qi Zhi Institute, Shanghai, China
- Big Data Institute for Carbon Emission and Environmental Pollution, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Leopold Haimberger
- Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna, Wien, Austria
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Acevedo-Del-Castillo A, Águila-Toledo E, Maldonado-Magnere S, Aguilar-Bolados H. A Brief Review on the High-Energy Electromagnetic Radiation-Shielding Materials Based on Polymer Nanocomposites. Int J Mol Sci 2021; 22:9079. [PMID: 34445783 PMCID: PMC8396447 DOI: 10.3390/ijms22169079] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2021] [Revised: 08/11/2021] [Accepted: 08/20/2021] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
This paper revises the use of polymer nanocomposites to attenuate high-energy electromagnetic radiation (HE-EMR), such as gamma radiation. As known, high-energy radiation produces drastic damage not only in facilities or electronic devices but also to life and the environment. Among the different approaches to attenuate the HE-EMR, we consider the use of compounds with a high atomic number (Z), such as lead, but as known, lead is toxic. Therefore, different works have considered low-toxicity post-transitional metal-based compounds, such as bismuth. Additionally, nanosized particles have shown higher performance to attenuate HE-EMR than those that are micro-sized. On the other hand, materials with π-conjugated systems can also play a role in spreading the energy of electrons ejected as a consequence of the interaction of HE-EMR with matter, preventing the ionization and bond scission of polymers. The different effects produced by the interactions of the matter with HE-EMR are revised. The increase of the shielding properties of lightweight, flexible, and versatile materials such as polymer-based materials can be a contribution for developing technologies to obtain more efficient materials for preventing the damage produced for the HE-EMR in different industries where it is found.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Angel Acevedo-Del-Castillo
- Facultad de Ciencias Químicas y Farmacéuticas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago 8380494, Chile; (A.A.-D.-C.); (E.Á.-T.); (S.M.-M.)
| | - Ernesto Águila-Toledo
- Facultad de Ciencias Químicas y Farmacéuticas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago 8380494, Chile; (A.A.-D.-C.); (E.Á.-T.); (S.M.-M.)
| | - Santiago Maldonado-Magnere
- Facultad de Ciencias Químicas y Farmacéuticas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago 8380494, Chile; (A.A.-D.-C.); (E.Á.-T.); (S.M.-M.)
| | - Héctor Aguilar-Bolados
- Departamento de Polímeros, Facultad de Ciencias Químicas, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción 3349001, Chile
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Interannual Variability and Trends in Sea Surface Temperature, Lower and Middle Atmosphere Temperature at Different Latitudes for 1980–2019. ATMOSPHERE 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos12040454] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The influence of sea-surface temperature (SST) on the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere temperature in the tropical, middle, and polar latitudes is studied for 1980–2019 based on the MERRA2, ERA5, and Met Office reanalysis data, and numerical modeling with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) of the lower and middle atmosphere. The variability of SST is analyzed according to Met Office and ERA5 data, while the variability of atmospheric temperature is investigated according to MERRA2 and ERA5 data. Analysis of sea surface temperature trends based on reanalysis data revealed that a significant positive SST trend of about 0.1 degrees per decade is observed over the globe. In the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the trend (about 0.2 degrees per decade) is 2 times higher than the global average, and 5 times higher than in the Southern Hemisphere (about 0.04 degrees per decade). At polar latitudes, opposite SST trends are observed in the Arctic (positive) and Antarctic (negative). The impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon on the temperature of the lower and middle atmosphere in the middle and polar latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres is discussed. To assess the relative influence of SST, CO2, and other greenhouse gases’ variability on the temperature of the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere, numerical calculations with a CCM were performed for several scenarios of accounting for the SST and carbon dioxide variability. The results of numerical experiments with a CCM demonstrated that the influence of SST prevails in the troposphere, while for the stratosphere, an increase in the CO2 content plays the most important role.
Collapse
|
8
|
Homogeneity of the Temperature Data Series from ERA5 and MERRA2 and Temperature Trends. ATMOSPHERE 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos11030235] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The stratosphere and its dynamics are a very important part of atmospheric circulation. We need to analyze its climatology, as well as long-term trends. A long-term trend study needs homogenous datasets without significant artificial discontinuities. The analysis is based on the two newest released reanalyses, Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis (MERRA2) and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis (ERA5). The aim of this study is to detect discontinuities in the temperature time series from the above reanalyses with the help of the Pettitt homogeneity test for pressure layers above 500 hPa up to 1 hPa in January and February, and show a comparison of temperature trends from the studied reanalyses and GPS radio occultation (GPS RO). We search for individual grid points where these discontinuities occur, and also for the years when they occur (geographical and temporal distribution). As expected, the study confirms better results for the Northern Hemisphere due to the denser data coverage. A high number of grid points with jumps on the Southern Hemisphere is found, especially at higher pressure levels (from 50 hPa). The spatial and vertical distribution of discontinuities is also presented. The vertical distribution reveals the reduction of the number of jumps around 10 hPa, especially for ERA5 reanalysis. The results show that ERA5 has significantly less jumps than MERRA2. We also study temperature trends from reanalyses and GPS RO and our analysis shows that the agreement between the reanalyses and observations are very good for the period 2006–2018.
Collapse
|
9
|
Remsberg E. Observation and Attribution of Temperature Trends Near the Stratopause From HALOE. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH. ATMOSPHERES : JGR 2019; 124:6600-6611. [PMID: 31632892 PMCID: PMC6800683 DOI: 10.1029/2019jd030455] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2019] [Accepted: 05/03/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
This study considers time series of temperature versus pressure, T(p), from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) across the stratopause region, where the effects of radiative forcings from the greenhouse gases (CO2 and H2O) and from ozone are most pronounced. Trend analyses of HALOE T(p) values for 1993-2005 are for six levels from 2.0 to 0.3 hPa with a vertical resolution of about 4 km and for eight latitude zones from 65°S to 65°N. The analyses account for the forcing effects from the 11-yr solar cycle. HALOE trends at 2.0 hPa are of the order of -1.0 K/decade across the tropics and subtropics but then become smaller (-0.5 K/decade) at the middle latitudes. Near-global T(p) trends are of order -0.5 K/decade but have a minimum of -0.2 K/decade at 1.0 hPa; they are clearly negative in the southern but slightly positive in the northern hemisphere. The combined radiative forcings from CO2, H2O, and ozone vary between -0.4 and -0.7 K/decade for 1993-2005 and are hemispherically symmetric. The HALOE temperature trend and total radiative cooling profiles differ from those reported from observations and calculations for 1980-2000, mainly because the ozone trends changed from clearly negative in the 1980s through mid-1990s to slightly positive during the time of HALOE. Trends at low latitudes for the tracer, methane (CH4), increase from 2% to 4%/decade from 50 to 10 hPa and then to ~6%/decade by 5 hPa. Analyses of time series of CH4 across the stratopause reveal subseasonal scale variability within the northern hemisphere that reduces the significance of the T(p) trends.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ellis Remsberg
- Science Directorate, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA
| |
Collapse
|