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Campos Morales C, Pakhtigian EL, Landry JR, Wiseman H, Pham AT, Peng W. Designing Retirement Strategies for Coal-Fired Power Plants To Mitigate Air Pollution and Health Impacts. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2024; 58:15371-15380. [PMID: 39159360 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.4c00704] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/21/2024]
Abstract
Retiring coal power plants can reduce air pollution and health damages. However, the spatial distribution of those impacts remains unclear due to complex power system operations and pollution chemistry and transport. Focusing on coal retirements in Pennsylvania (PA), we analyze six counterfactual scenarios for 2019 that differ in retirement targets (e.g., reducing 50% of coal-based installed capacity vs generation) and priorities (e.g., closing plants with higher cost, closer to Environmental Justice Areas, or with higher CO2 emissions). Using a power system model of the PJM Interconnection, we find that coal retirements in PA shift power generation across PA and Rest of PJM, leading to scenario-varying changes in the plant-level release of air pollutants. Considering pollution transport and the size of the exposed population, these emissions changes, in turn, give rise to a reduction of 6-136 PM2.5-attributable deaths in PJM across the six scenarios, with most reductions occurring in PA. Among our designed scenarios, those that reduce more coal power generation yield greater aggregate health benefits due to air quality improvements in PA and adjacent downwind regions. In addition, comparing across the six scenarios evaluated in this study, vulnerable populations─in both PA and Rest of PJM─benefit most in scenarios that prioritize plant closures near Environmental Justice Areas in PA. These results demonstrate the importance of considering cross-regional linkages and sociodemographics in designing equitable retirement strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carla Campos Morales
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802, United States
- School of Public and International Affairs and Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08540, United States
| | - Emily L Pakhtigian
- School of Public Policy, The Pennsylvania State University; 322 Pond Laboratory, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802, United States
| | - Joel R Landry
- College of Earth and Mineral Sciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802, United States
| | - Hannah Wiseman
- Penn State Law, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802, United States
| | - An T Pham
- School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109, United States
| | - Wei Peng
- School of Public and International Affairs and Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08540, United States
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Shaw WJ, Kidder MK, Bare SR, Delferro M, Morris JR, Toma FM, Senanayake SD, Autrey T, Biddinger EJ, Boettcher S, Bowden ME, Britt PF, Brown RC, Bullock RM, Chen JG, Daniel C, Dorhout PK, Efroymson RA, Gaffney KJ, Gagliardi L, Harper AS, Heldebrant DJ, Luca OR, Lyubovsky M, Male JL, Miller DJ, Prozorov T, Rallo R, Rana R, Rioux RM, Sadow AD, Schaidle JA, Schulte LA, Tarpeh WA, Vlachos DG, Vogt BD, Weber RS, Yang JY, Arenholz E, Helms BA, Huang W, Jordahl JL, Karakaya C, Kian KC, Kothandaraman J, Lercher J, Liu P, Malhotra D, Mueller KT, O'Brien CP, Palomino RM, Qi L, Rodriguez JA, Rousseau R, Russell JC, Sarazen ML, Sholl DS, Smith EA, Stevens MB, Surendranath Y, Tassone CJ, Tran B, Tumas W, Walton KS. A US perspective on closing the carbon cycle to defossilize difficult-to-electrify segments of our economy. Nat Rev Chem 2024; 8:376-400. [PMID: 38693313 DOI: 10.1038/s41570-024-00587-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/16/2024] [Indexed: 05/03/2024]
Abstract
Electrification to reduce or eliminate greenhouse gas emissions is essential to mitigate climate change. However, a substantial portion of our manufacturing and transportation infrastructure will be difficult to electrify and/or will continue to use carbon as a key component, including areas in aviation, heavy-duty and marine transportation, and the chemical industry. In this Roadmap, we explore how multidisciplinary approaches will enable us to close the carbon cycle and create a circular economy by defossilizing these difficult-to-electrify areas and those that will continue to need carbon. We discuss two approaches for this: developing carbon alternatives and improving our ability to reuse carbon, enabled by separations. Furthermore, we posit that co-design and use-driven fundamental science are essential to reach aggressive greenhouse gas reduction targets.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wendy J Shaw
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA.
| | | | - Simon R Bare
- SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Menlo Park, CA, USA.
| | | | | | - Francesca M Toma
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA.
- Institute of Functional Materials for Sustainability, Helmholtz Zentrum Hereon, Teltow, Brandenburg, Germany.
| | | | - Tom Autrey
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
| | | | - Shannon Boettcher
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
- Department of Chemical & Biomolecular Engineering and Department of Chemistry, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Mark E Bowden
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
| | | | - Robert C Brown
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA
| | | | - Jingguang G Chen
- Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, USA
- Department of Chemical Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | | | - Peter K Dorhout
- Vice President for Research, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA
| | | | | | - Laura Gagliardi
- Department of Chemistry, The University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Aaron S Harper
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
| | - David J Heldebrant
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
- Chemical Engineering and Bioengineering, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA
| | - Oana R Luca
- Department of Chemistry, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | | | - Jonathan L Male
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
- Biological Systems Engineering Department, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA
| | | | | | - Robert Rallo
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
| | - Rachita Rana
- Department of Chemical Engineering, University of California, Davis, CA, USA
| | - Robert M Rioux
- Department of Chemical Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
| | - Aaron D Sadow
- Ames National Laboratory, Ames, IA, USA
- Department of Chemistry, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA
| | | | - Lisa A Schulte
- Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA
| | - William A Tarpeh
- Department of Chemical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Dionisios G Vlachos
- Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA
| | - Bryan D Vogt
- Department of Chemical Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
| | - Robert S Weber
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
| | - Jenny Y Yang
- Department of Chemistry, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - Elke Arenholz
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
| | - Brett A Helms
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Wenyu Huang
- Ames National Laboratory, Ames, IA, USA
- Department of Chemistry, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA
| | - James L Jordahl
- Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA
| | | | - Kourosh Cyrus Kian
- Independent consultant, Washington DC, USA
- Department of Chemical Engineering, Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA, USA
| | | | - Johannes Lercher
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
- Department of Chemistry, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Ping Liu
- Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, USA
| | | | - Karl T Mueller
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
| | - Casey P O'Brien
- Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | | | - Long Qi
- Ames National Laboratory, Ames, IA, USA
| | | | | | - Jake C Russell
- Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, Department of Energy, Washington DC, USA
| | - Michele L Sarazen
- Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | | | - Emily A Smith
- Ames National Laboratory, Ames, IA, USA
- Department of Chemistry, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA
| | | | - Yogesh Surendranath
- Department of Chemistry, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | | | - Ba Tran
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
| | - William Tumas
- National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO, USA
| | - Krista S Walton
- School of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA
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Beaupied BL, Martinez H, Martenies S, McConnel CS, Pollack IB, Giardina D, Fischer EV, Jathar S, Duncan CG, Magzamen S. Cows as canaries: The effects of ambient air pollution exposure on milk production and somatic cell count in dairy cows. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 207:112197. [PMID: 34699758 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.112197] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2021] [Revised: 09/14/2021] [Accepted: 10/07/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Exposure to air pollution, including criteria pollutants such as fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3), has been associated with morbidity and mortality in mammals. As a genetically homogenous population that is closely monitored for health, dairy cattle present a unique opportunity to assess the association between changes in air pollution and mammalian health. Milk yield decreases in the summer if temperature and humidity, measured by the Temperature Humidity Index (THI). As O3 levels increase with warmer temperatures, and summer PM2.5 may increase with wildfire smoke, dairy cows may serve as a useful sentinel species to evaluate subacute markers of inflammation and metabolic output and ambient pollution. Over two years, we assessed summertime O3 and PM2.5 concentrations from local US EPA air quality monitors into an auto-regressive mixed model of the association between THI and daily milk production data and bulk tank somatic cell count (SCC). In unadjusted models, a 10 unit increase THI was associated with 28,700 cells/mL (95% CI: 17,700, 39,690) increase in SCC. After controlling for ambient air pollutants, THI was associated with a 14,500 SCC increase (95% CI: 3,400, 25,680), a 48% decrease in effect compared to the crude model. Further, in fully adjusted models, PM2.5 was associated with a 105,500 cells/mL (95% CI: 90,030, 121,050) increase in SCC. Similar results were found for milk production. Results were amplified when high PM2.5 days (95th percentile of observed values) associated with wildfire smoke were removed from the analyses. Our results support the hypothesis that PM2.5 confounds the relationships between THI and milk yield and somatic cell count. The results of this study can be used to inform strategies for intervention to mitigate these impacts at the dairy level and potentially contribute to a model where production animals can act as air quality sentinels.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bonni L Beaupied
- Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Heather Martinez
- Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Sheena Martenies
- Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Craig S McConnel
- College of Veterinary Medicine, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA
| | - Ilana B Pollack
- Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Dylan Giardina
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Emily V Fischer
- Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Shantanu Jathar
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Colleen G Duncan
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology, and Pathology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Sheryl Magzamen
- Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
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