Analysis of the Beaufort Gyre Freshwater Content in 2003-2018

Future sea ice weakening amplifies wind-driven trends in surface stress and Arctic Ocean spin-up

Arctic sea ice mediates atmosphere-ocean momentum transfer, which drives upper ocean circulation. How Arctic Ocean surface stress and velocity respond to sea ice decline and changing winds under global warming is unclear. Here we show that state-of-the-art climate models consistently predict an increase in future (2015-2100) ocean surface stress in response to increased surface wind speed, declining sea ice area, and a weaker ice pack. While wind speeds increase most during fall (+2.2% per decade), surface stress rises most in winter (+5.1% per decade) being amplified by reduced internal ice stress. This is because, as sea ice concentration decreases in a warming climate, less energy is dissipated by the weaker ice pack, resulting in more momentum transfer to the ocean. The increased momentum transfer accelerates Arctic Ocean surface velocity (+31-47% by 2100), leading to elevated ocean kinetic energy and enhanced vertical mixing. The enhanced surface stress also increases the Beaufort Gyre Ekman convergence and freshwater content, impacting Arctic marine ecosystems and the downstream ocean circulation. The impacts of projected changes are profound, but different and simplified model formulations of atmosphere-ice-ocean momentum transfer introduce considerable uncertainty, highlighting the need for improved coupling in climate models.

A multiyear time series (2004-2012) of bacterial and archaeal community dynamics in a changing Arctic Ocean

Climate change is profoundly impacting the Arctic, leading to a loss of multiyear sea ice and a warmer, fresher upper Arctic Ocean. The response of microbial communities to these climate-mediated changes is largely unknown. Here, we document the interannual variation in bacterial and archaeal communities across a 9-year time series of the Canada Basin that includes two historic sea ice minima (2007 and 2012). We report an overall loss of bacterial and archaeal community richness and significant shifts in community composition. The magnitude and period of most rapid change differed between the stratified water layers. The most pronounced changes in the upper water layers (surface mixed layer and upper Arctic water) occurred earlier in the time series, while changes in the lower layer (Pacific-origin water) occurred later. Shifts in taxonomic composition across time were subtle, but a decrease in Bacteroidota taxa and increase in Thaumarchaeota and Euryarchaeota taxa were the clearest signatures of change. This time series provides a rare glimpse into the potential influence of climate change on Arctic microbial communities; extension to the present day should contribute to deeper insights into the trajectory of Arctic marine ecosystems in response to warming and freshening.

Arctic freshwater impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: status and prospects

Arguably, the most conspicuous evidence for anthropogenic climate change lies in the Arctic Ocean. For example, the summer-time Arctic sea ice extent has declined over the last 40 years and the Arctic Ocean freshwater storage has increased over the last 30 years. Coupled climate models project that this extra freshwater will pass Greenland to enter the sub-polar North Atlantic Ocean (SPNA) in the coming decades. Coupled climate models also project that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken in the twenty-first century, associated with SPNA buoyancy increases. Yet, it remains unclear when the Arctic anthropogenic freshening signal will be detected in the SPNA, or what form the signal will take. Therefore, this article reviews and synthesizes the state of knowledge on Arctic Ocean and SPNA salinity variations and their causes. This article focuses on the export processes in data-constrained ocean circulation model hindcasts. One challenge is to quantify and understand the relative importance of different competing processes. This article also discusses the prospects to detect the emergence of Arctic anthropogenic freshening and the likely impacts on the AMOC. For this issue, the challenge is to distinguish anthropogenic signals from natural variability. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges'.

Fluctuating Atlantic inflows modulate Arctic atlantification

Enhanced warm, salty subarctic inflows drive high-latitude atlantification, which weakens oceanic stratification, amplifies heat fluxes, and reduces sea ice. In this work, we show that the atmospheric Arctic Dipole (AD) associated with anticyclonic winds over North America and cyclonic winds over Eurasia modulates inflows from the North Atlantic across the Nordic Seas. The alternating AD phases create a "switchgear mechanism." From 2007 to 2021, this switchgear mechanism weakened northward inflows and enhanced sea-ice export across Fram Strait and increased inflows throughout the Barents Sea. By favoring stronger Arctic Ocean circulation, transferring freshwater into the Amerasian Basin, boosting stratification, and lowering oceanic heat fluxes there after 2007, AD+ contributed to slowing sea-ice loss. A transition to an AD- phase may accelerate the Arctic sea-ice decline, which would further change the Arctic climate system.

Primary Production in the Kara, Laptev, and East Siberian Seas

Understanding of the primary production of phytoplankton in the Kara Sea (KS), the Laptev Sea (LS), and the East Siberian Sea (ESS) remains limited, despite the recognized importance of phytoplankton in the Arctic Ocean. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted three NABOS (Nansen and Amundsen Basins Observational System) expeditions in 2013, 2015, and 2018 to measure in situ primary production rates using a 13C-15N dual-tracer method and examine their major controlling factors. The main goals in this study were to investigate regional heterogeneity in primary production and derive its contemporary ranges in the KS, LS, and ESS. The daily primary production rates in this study (99 ± 62, 100 ± 77, and 56 ± 35 mg C m-2 d-1 in the KS, LS, and ESS, respectively) are rather different from the values previously reported in each sea mainly because of spatial and regional differences. Among the three seas, a significantly lower primary production rate was observed in the ESS in comparison to those in the KS and LS. This is likely mainly because of regional differences in freshwater content based on the noticeable relationship (Spearman, rs = -0.714, p < 0.05) between the freshwater content and the primary production rates observed in this study. The contemporary ranges of the annual primary production based on this and previous studies are 0.96-2.64, 0.72-50.52, and 1.68-16.68 g C m-2 in the KS, LS, and ESS, respectively. Further intensive field measurements are warranted to enhance our understanding of marine microorganisms and their community-level responses to the currently changing environmental conditions in these poorly studied regions of the Arctic Ocean.

Impact of sea ice transport on Beaufort Gyre liquid freshwater content

The Arctic Ocean's Beaufort Gyre (BG) is a wind-driven reservoir of relatively fresh seawater, situated beneath time-mean anticyclonic atmospheric circulation, and is covered by mobile pack ice for most of the year. Liquid freshwater accumulation in and expulsion from this gyre is of critical interest due to its potential to affect the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and due to the importance of freshwater in modulating vertical fluxes of heat, nutrients and carbon in the ocean, and exchanges of heat and moisture with the atmosphere. Here, we investigate the hypothesis that wind-driven sea ice transport into/from the BG region influences the freshwater content of the gyre and its variability. To test this hypothesis, we use the results of a coordinated climate response function experiment with four ice-ocean models, in combination with targeted experiments using a regional setup of the MITgcm, in which we rotate the surface wind forcing vectors (thereby changing the ageostrophic component of these winds). Our results show that, via an effect on the net thermodynamic growth rate, anomalies in sea ice transport into the BG affect liquid freshwater adjustment. Specifically, increased ice import increases freshwater retention in the gyre, whereas ice export decreases freshwater in the gyre. Our results demonstrate that uncertainty in the ageostrophic component of surface winds, and in the dynamic sea ice response to these winds, has important implications for ice thermodynamics and freshwater. This sensitivity may explain some of the observed inter-model spread in simulations of Beaufort Gyre freshwater and its adjustment in response to wind forcing.

The Arctic Ocean's Beaufort Gyre

The Arctic Ocean's Beaufort Gyre is a dominant feature of the Arctic system, a prominent indicator of climate change, and possibly a control factor for high-latitude climate. The state of knowledge of the wind-driven Beaufort Gyre is reviewed here, including its forcing, relationship to sea-ice cover, source waters, circulation, and energetics. Recent decades have seen pronounced change in all elements of the Beaufort Gyre system. Sea-ice losses have accompanied an intensification of the gyre circulation and increasing heat and freshwater content. Present understanding of these changes is evaluated, and time series of heat and freshwater content are updated to include the most recent observations.

Vertical redistribution of principle water masses on the Northeast Greenland Shelf

The Northeast Greenland shelf (NEGS) is a recipient of Polar Water (PW) from the Arctic Ocean, Greenland Ice Sheet melt, and Atlantic Water (AW). Here, we compile hydrographical measurements to quantify long-term changes in fjords and coastal waters. We find a profound change in the vertical distribution of water masses, with AW shoaling >60 m and PW thinning >50 m since early 2000's. The properties of these waters have also changed. AW is now 1 °C warmer and the salinity of surface waters and PW are 1.8 and 0.68 lower, respectively. The AW changes have substantially weakened stratification south of ~74°N, indicating increased accessibility of heat and potentially nutrients associated with AW. The Atlantification earlier reported for the eastern Fram Strait and Barents Sea region has also propagated to the NEGS. The increased presence of AW, is an important driver for regional change leading to a likely shift in ecosystem structure and function.

Factors affecting the subsurface aragonite undersaturation layer in the Pacific Arctic region

This study evaluated interannual variation in the subsurface aragonite undersaturation zone (Ω_Ar<1 layer) in the Pacific Arctic Ocean, using data from the 2016-2019 period. The upper boundary (DEP_Ω<1^UB) of the Ω_Ar<1 layer generally formed at a depth where the contribution of corrosive Pacific water was approximately 98 %. The intensity of the Beaufort Gyre associated with freshwater accumulation mainly determined interannual variation in DEP_Ω<1^UB, but the direction of its effect was opposite west and east of ~166°W. The lower boundary (DEP_Ω<1^LB) of the Ω_Ar<1 layer was generally found at a depth range where equal contributions of Pacific and Atlantic water were expected. An Atlantic-origin cold saline water intrusion event in 2017 caused by an anomalous atmospheric circulation pattern significantly lifted the DEP_Ω<1^LB, thus the thickness of the Ω_Ar<1 layer decreased.

A Satellite-Observed Substantial Decrease in Multiyear Ice Area Export through the Fram Strait over the Last Decade

Revealing the changes in the Fram Strait (FS) multiyear ice (MYI) export is crucial due to their climate relevance in the context of the loss rate of MYI being faster than that of the total ice in the Arctic. Here, we estimated winter (October–April) MYI area export through the FS over the last 2 decades by using updated MYI concentration data retrieved from active and passive microwave satellite observations. We divided the period into two regimes relative to the ice index: D1 (2002/03–2010/11) and D2 (2012/13–2019/20). The observed variations of winter MYI exports D2 were compared with those of the previous decade D1. The results show that the MYI area exports display strong interannual variability. A significant decrease in MYI export for the periods between D1 and D2 is noted. On average, the wintertime MYI area exports declined sharply by 22% from 3.82 × 105 km2 in D1 to 3.00 × 105 km2 in D2. In addition, the percentage of MYI in the total sea ice outflow through the FS (PCM) also decreased distinctly from 72% in D1 to 59% in D2. Statistics show that weekly sea ice drift across the strait can explain 76% of the MYI area export variability. Furthermore, the dominant atmospheric drivers contributing to the decline in MYI area export during D2 were examined. In the last decade (D2), the strengthened low pressure in the North Atlantic sector, combined with an eastward shift in the axis of dipole anomaly (DA), resulted in reduced MYI advection from the Beaufort Sea and Siberian Coast toward the FS. Moreover, weakened cyclonic activity south of the FS also contributed to the reduction in MYI export during D2.

On the Interplay between Freshwater Content and Hydrographic Conditions in the Arctic Ocean in the 1990s–2010s

We investigated liquid freshwater content (FWC) in the upper 100 m layer of the Arctic Ocean using oceanographic observations covering the period from 1990 through 2018. Our analysis revealed two opposite tendencies in freshwater balance—the freshening in the Canada Basin at the mean rate of 2.04 ± 0.64 m/decade and the salinization of the eastern Eurasian Basin (EB) at the rate of 0.96 ± 0.86 m/decade. In line with this, we found that the Arctic Ocean gained an additional 19,000 ± 1000 km3 of freshwater over the 1990–2018 period. FWC changes in the EB since 1990 demonstrate an intermittent pattern with the most rapid decrease (from ~5.5 to 3.8 m) having occurred between 2000 and 2005. The 1990–2018 FWC changes in the upper ocean were concurrent with prominent changes of the thermohaline properties of the intermediate Atlantic Water (AW)—the main source of salt and heat for the Arctic Basin. In the eastern EB, we found a 50 m rise of the upper AW boundary accompanied by a ~0.5 °C increase in the AW core temperature. The close relationship (R > 0.7 ± 0.2) between available potential energy in the layer above the AW and FWC in the eastern EB suggests a positive feedback mechanism that links the amount of freshwater with the intensity of vertical heat and salt exchange in the halocline and upper AW layers. Together with other mechanisms of Atlantification, this feedback creates a complex picture of interactions behind the observed changes in the hydrological and ice regimes of the Eurasian sector of the Arctic Ocean.

Model Study of the Effects of Climate Change on the Methane Emissions on the Arctic Shelves

Based on a regional ice-ocean model, we simulated the state of the water masses of the Arctic Ocean to analyze the transport of dissolved methane on the Arctic shelves. From 1970 to 2019, we obtained estimates of methane emissions at the Arctic seas due to the degradation of submarine permafrost and gas release at the ocean–bottom interface. The calculated annual methane flux from the Arctic shelf seas into the atmosphere did not exceed 2 Tg CH4 year−1. We have shown that the East Siberian shelf seas make the main contribution to the total methane emissions of the region. The spatial variability of the methane fluxes into the atmosphere is primarily due to the peculiarities of the water circulation and ice conditions. Only 7% of the dissolved methane originating from sediment enters the atmosphere within the study area. Most of it appears to be transported below the surface and oxidized by microbial activity. We found that increasing periods and areas of ice-free water and decreasing ice concentration have contributed to a steady increase in methane emissions since the middle of the first decade of the current century.

Estimating Water Transport from Short-Term Vessel-Based and Long-Term Bottom-Mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler Measurements in an Arctic Lagoon Connected to the Beaufort Sea

Acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCP) are quasi-remote sensing instruments widely used in oceanography to measure velocity profiles continuously. One of the applications is the quantification of land-ocean exchange, which plays a key role in the global cycling of water, heat, and materials. This exchange mostly occurs through estuaries, lagoons, and bays. Studies on the subject thus require that observations of total volume or mass transport can be achieved. Alternatively, numerical modeling is needed for the computation of transport, which, however, also requires that the model is validated properly. Since flows across an estuary, lagoon, or bay are usually non-uniform and point measurements will not be sufficient, continuous measurements across a transect are desired but cannot be performed in the long run due to budget constraints. In this paper, we use a combination of short-term transect-based measurements from a vessel-mounted ADCP and relatively long-term point measurements from a moored ADCP at the bottom to obtain regression coefficients between the transport from the vessel-based observations and the depth-averaged velocity from the bottom-based observations. The method is applied to an Arctic lagoon by using an ADCP mounted on a buoyant platform towed by a small inflatable vessel and another ADCP mounted on a bottom deployed metal frame. The vessel-based measurements were performed continuously for nearly 5 h, which was sufficient to derive a linear regression between the datasets with an R²-value of 0.89. The regression coefficients were in turn applied to the entire time for the moored instrument measurements, which are used in the interpretation of the subtidal transport variations.

Marine Heatwaves in Siberian Arctic Seas and Adjacent Region

We used a satellite-derived global daily sea surface temperature (SST) dataset with resolution 0.25 × 0.25∘ to analyze interannual changes in the Arctic Shelf seas from 2000 to 2020 and to reveal extreme events in SST distribution. Results show that the second decade of the 21st century for the Siberian Arctic seas turned significantly warmer than the first decade, and the increase in SST in the Arctic seas could be considered in terms of marine heatwaves. Analyzing the spatial distribution of heatwaves and their characteristics, we showed that from 2018 to 2020, the surface warming extended to the northern deep-water region of the Laptev Sea 75∘ to 81∘N. To reveal the most important forcing for the northward extension of the marine heatwaves, we used three-dimensional numerical modeling of the Arctic Ocean based on a sea-ice and ocean model forced by the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. The simulation of the Arctic Ocean variability from 2000 to 2020 showed marine heatwaves and their increasing intensity in the northern region of the Kara and Laptev seas, closely connected to the disappearance of ice cover. A series of numerical experiments on the sensitivity of the model showed that the main factors affecting the Arctic sea-ice loss and the formation of anomalous temperature north of the Siberian Arctic seas are equally the thermal and dynamic effects of the atmosphere. Numerical modeling allows us to examine the impact of other physical mechanisms as well. Among them were the state of the ocean and winter sea ice, the formation of fast ice polynias and riverine heat influx.

A Novel Freshwater to Marine Evolutionary Transition Revealed within Methylophilaceae Bacteria from the Arctic Ocean

Bacteria inhabiting polar oceans, particularly the Arctic Ocean, are less studied than those at lower latitudes. Discovering bacterial adaptations to Arctic Ocean conditions is essential for understanding responses to the accelerated environmental changes occurring in the North. The Methylophilaceae are emerging as a model for investigating the genomic basis of habitat adaptation, because related lineages are widely distributed across both freshwater and marine ecosystems. Here, we investigated Methylophilaceae diversity in the salinity-stratified surface waters of the Canada Basin, Arctic Ocean. In addition to a diversity of marine OM43 lineages, we report on the genomic characteristics and evolution of a previously undescribed Methylophilaceae clade (BS01) common to polar surface waters yet related to freshwater sediment Methylotenera species. BS01 is restricted to the lower-salinity surface waters, while OM43 is found throughout the halocline. An acidic proteome supports a marine lifestyle for BS01, but gene content shows increased metabolic versatility compared to OM43 and evidence for ongoing genome-streamlining. Phylogenetic reconstruction shows that BS01 colonized the pelagic ocean independently of OM43 via convergent evolution. Salinity adaptation and differences in one-carbon and nitrogen metabolism may play a role in niche differentiation between BS01 and OM43. In particular, urea utilization by BS01 is predicted to provide an ecological advantage over OM43 given the limited amount of inorganic nitrogen in the Canada Basin. These observations provide further evidence that the Arctic Ocean is inhabited by distinct bacterial groups and that at least one group (BS01) evolved via a freshwater to marine environmental transition.

Labrador Sea freshening linked to Beaufort Gyre freshwater release

The Beaufort Gyre (BG), the largest Arctic Ocean freshwater reservoir, has drastically increased its liquid freshwater content by 40% in the past two decades. If released within a short period, the excess freshwater could potentially impact the large-scale ocean circulation by freshening the upper subpolar North Atlantic. Here, we track BG-sourced freshwater using passive tracers in a global ocean sea-ice model and show that this freshwater exited the Arctic mostly through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, rather than Fram Strait, during an historical release event in 1983-1995. The Labrador Sea is the most affected region in the subpolar North Atlantic, with a freshening of 0.2 psu on the western shelves and 0.4 psu in the Labrador Current. Given that the present BG freshwater content anomaly is twice the historical analog studied here, the impact of a future rapid release on Labrador Sea salinity could be significant, easily exceeding similar fluxes from Greenland meltwater.

Temporal and spatial dependence of a yearlong record of sound propagation from the Canada Basin to the Chukchi Shelf

The Pacific Arctic Region has experienced decadal changes in atmospheric conditions, seasonal sea-ice coverage, and thermohaline structure that have consequences for underwater sound propagation. To better understand Arctic acoustics, a set of experiments known as the deep-water Canada Basin acoustic propagation experiment and the shallow-water Canada Basin acoustic propagation experiment was conducted in the Canada Basin and on the Chukchi Shelf from summer 2016 to summer 2017. During the experiments, low-frequency signals from five tomographic sources located in the deep basin were recorded by an array of hydrophones located on the shelf. Over the course of the yearlong experiment, the surface conditions transitioned from completely open water to fully ice-covered. The propagation conditions in the deep basin were dominated by a subsurface duct; however, over the slope and shelf, the duct was seen to significantly weaken during the winter and spring. The combination of these surface and subsurface conditions led to changes in the received level of the sources that exceeded 60 dB and showed a distinct spacio-temporal dependence, which was correlated with the locations of the sources in the basin. This paper seeks to quantify the observed variability in the received signals through propagation modeling using spatially sparse environmental measurements.