Potential for Electric Vehicle Adoption to Mitigate Extreme Air Quality Events in China

Electric vehicles and health: A scoping review

BACKGROUND

The health impacts of the rapid transition to the use of electric vehicles are largely unexplored. We completed a scoping review to assess the state of the evidence on use of battery electric and hybrid electric vehicles and health.

METHODS

We conducted a literature search of MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, CINAHL, Scopus, and Environmental Science Collection databases for articles published January 1990 to January 2024. We included articles if they presented observed or modeled data on the association between battery electric or hybrid electric cars, trucks, or buses and health-related outcomes. We abstracted data and summarized results.

RESULTS

Out of 897 reviewed articles, 52 met our inclusion criteria. The majority of included articles examined transitions to the use of electric vehicles (n = 49, 94%), with fewer studies examining hybrid electric vehicles (n = 11, 21%) or plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (n = 8, 15%). The most common outcomes examined were premature death (n = 41, 79%) and monetized health outcomes such as medical expenditures (n = 33, 63%). We identified only one observational study on the impact of electric vehicles on health; all other studies reported modeled data. Almost every study (n = 51, 98%) reported some evidence of a positive health impact of transitioning to electric or hybrid electric vehicles, although magnitudes of association varied. There was a paucity of information on the environmental justice implications of vehicle transitions.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of the current literature on electric vehicles and health suggest an overall positive health impact of transitioning to electric vehicles. Additional observational studies would help expand our understanding of the real-world health effects of electric vehicles. Future research focused on the environmental justice implications of vehicle fleet transitions could provide additional information about the extent to which the health benefits occur equitably across populations.

Societal Co-benefits of Zero-Emission Vehicles in the Freight Industry

This study was set in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), where commercial vehicle movements were assigned across the road network. Implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, air quality, and health were examined through an environmental justice lens. Electrification of light-, medium-, and heavy-duty trucks was assessed to identify scenarios associated with the highest benefits for the most disadvantaged communities. Using spatially and temporally resolved commercial vehicle movements and a chemical transport model, changes in air pollutant concentrations under electric truck scenarios were estimated at 1-km2 resolution. Heavy-duty truck electrification reduces ambient black carbon and nitrogen dioxide on average by 10 and 14%, respectively, and GHG emissions by 10.5%. It achieves the highest reduction in premature mortality attributable to fine particulate matter chronic exposure (around 200 cases per year) compared with light- and medium-duty electrification (less than 150 cases each). The burden of all traffic in the GTHA was estimated to be around 600 cases per year. The benefits of electrification accrue primarily in neighborhoods with a high social disadvantage, measured by the Ontario Marginalization Indices, narrowing the disparity of exposure to traffic-related air pollution. Benefits related to heavy-duty truck electrification reflect the adverse impacts of diesel-fueled freight and highlight the co-benefits achieved by electrifying this sector.

Upgrading Passenger Vehicle Emission Standard Helps to Reduce China's Air Pollution Risk from Uncertainty in Electrification

Upgrading to the CHINA 7 standard is crucial for managing air pollution from passenger vehicles in China. Meanwhile, China aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, which necessitates large-scale replacement of gasoline vehicles with electric vehicles in the future. Consequently, the public might view upgrading gasoline vehicles to the CHINA 7 standard as redundant. However, the emission reduction benefits of upgrading standards in the context of uncertain electrification ambitions have not received adequate attention. Here, we show that upgrading standards will compensate for the absence of emissions reductions due to hindered electrification efforts. In the best scenario, China's CO2 emissions can be reduced to 0.047 Gt and NOx to 8.2 × 103 t in 2050. In nonextreme electrification scenarios with CHINA 7 standard, the emission intensity reduction will remain the main driver for emission reductions, outweighing the electrification contribution. In extreme electrification scenarios, upgrading standards will tackle the increased emissions from plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Our fleet-level results advocate for early standards upgrades to enhance resilience against air pollution risks arising from uncertainties in electrification. Our evidence from China, with one of the most stringent emission standards, can provide a reference point for the world on the upgrading passenger vehicle emission standard issue.

Health benefits of vehicle electrification through air pollution in Shanghai, China

Vehicle electrification has been recognized for its potential to reduce emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases in China. Several studies have estimated how national-level policies of electric vehicle (EV) adoption might bring very large environmental and public health benefits from improved air quality to China. However, large-scale adoption is very costly, some regions derive more benefits from large-scale EV adoption than others, and the benefits of replacing internal combustion engines in specific cities are less known. Therefore, it is important for policymakers to design incentives based on regional characteristics - especially for megacities like Shanghai - which typically suffer from worse air quality and where a larger population is exposed to emissions from vehicles. Over the past five years, Shanghai has offered substantial personal subsidies for passenger EVs to accelerate its electrification efforts. Still, it remains uncertain whether EV benefits justify the strength of incentives. The purpose of our study is to evaluate the health and climate benefits of replacing light-duty gasoline vehicles (ICEVs) with battery EVs in the city of Shanghai. We assess health impacts due to ICEV emissions of primary fine particulate matter, NOx, and volatile organic compounds, and to powerplant emissions of NOx and SO2 due to EV charging. We incorporate climate benefits from reduced greenhouse gas emissions based on existing research. We find that the benefit of replacing the average ICEV with an EV in Shanghai is US$6400 (2400-14,700), with health impacts of EVs about 20 times lower than the average ICEV. Larger benefits ensue if older ICEVs are replaced, but replacing newer China ICEVs also achieves positive health benefits. As Shanghai plans to stop providing personal subsidies for EV purchases in 2024, our results show that EVs achieve public health and climate benefits and can help inform policymaking strategies in Shanghai and other megacities.

How does adoption of electric vehicles reduce carbon emissions? Evidence from China

We investigate the effect of the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) on CO2 emissions using spatial econometric models and have three findings. First, there are spatial spillover effects of EV adoption on CO2 emissions, implying that the CO2 mitigation of a city depends on local sales of EVs and sales of EVs in neighboring cities. A 1% increase in the sale of EVs in a city can reduce CO2 emissions locally by 0.096% and by 0.087% in a nearby city. Second, EVs indirectly impact CO2 emissions through the substitution effect, energy consumption effect, and technological effect. The overall impact of EV adoption on CO2 emissions is negative. Finally, we demonstrate the moderating effect of urban energy structure on EVs' CO2 emissions mitigation. A 1% increase in the proportion of renewable energy generation increases the decarbonization of EVs by 0.036%. These findings provide policy implications for the coordinated development of EV market and energy system.

Trade-Offs between Direct Emission Reduction and Intersectoral Additional Emissions: Evidence from the Electrification Transition in China's Transport Sector

Electrifying the transport sector is crucial for reducing CO2 emissions and achieving Paris Agreement targets. This largely depends on rapid decarbonization in power plants; however, we often overlook the trade-offs between reduced transportation emissions and additional energy-supply sector emissions induced by electrification. Here, we developed a framework for China's transport sector, including analyzing driving factors of historical CO2 emissions, collecting energy-related parameters of numerous vehicles based on the field- investigation, and assessing the energy-environment impacts of electrification policies with national heterogeneity. We find holistic electrification in China's transport sector will cause substantial cumulative CO2 emission reduction (2025-2075), equivalent to 19.8-42% of global annual emissions, but with a 2.2-16.1 GtCO2 net increase considering the additional emissions in energy-supply sectors. It also leads to a 5.1- to 6.7-fold increase in electricity demand, and the resulting CO2 emissions far surpass the emission reduction achieved. Only under 2 and 1.5 °C scenarios, forcing further decarbonization in the energy supply sectors, will the holistic electrification of transportation have a robust mitigation effect, -2.5 to -7.0 Gt and -6.4 to -11.3 Gt net-negative emissions, respectively. Therefore, we conclude that electrifying the transport sector cannot be a one-size-fits-all policy, requiring synergistically decarbonization efforts in the energy-supply sectors.

Regionally differentiated promotion of electric vehicles in China considering environmental and human health impacts

Private passenger vehicles, with its high emissions of CO₂ and air pollutants, poses a severe threat to global climate and human health, particularly for a large developing country like China. Although both energy efficiency improvement of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) and the wide adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) could contribute to reducing emissions, how they should be jointly implemented in provinces with a heterogeneous context to maximize their net benefits remains insufficiently explored. Here, based on an integrated modeling framework associated with one factual (REF) and four counterfactual scenarios to explore the priority and best-ranked ordering of both EVs' penetration and high energy-efficient ICEVs in 31 Chinese provinces to achieve the most environmental and human health benefits from 2011 to 2018. The results demonstrate that electrification of the passenger fleet, which is charged by a slightly cleaner power source relative to 2011, yields significant co-benefits of CO₂ reduction and air quality improvement. Compared with REF, the fleet electrification scenario would lead to 3167 cases of avoided mortality and attain US$4.269 billion of health benefits in 2018, accounting for 0.03% of China's gross domestic product. Nonetheless, highly efficient ICEVs are found to harbor decarbonization potential and health benefits in northern China. Based on these results, Sichuan, Hebei and seven other provinces in east China should promote EVs imminently; conversely, eight provinces with a high share of thermal power must continually advance their implementation of ICEVs in the near future. Such prioritization of EVs and ICEV development at the provincial level provides timely insights for devising tailored policies regarding passenger car transition and for maximizing climate and health benefits based on regional heterogeneity.

The efforts of China to combat air pollution during the period of 2015-2018: A case study assessing the environmental, health and economic benefits in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding "2 + 26" regions

During the period of 2015-2018, Chinese government had made great efforts to mitigate air pollutants, such as air quality monitoring, energy structure adjustment, and pollutant emission reduction from industry, transportation and household sectors. With the special investment of 152 billion Chinese Yuan (CNY) in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) and surrounding "2 + 26" regions, the annual local concentrations of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂ and NO₂ decreased from 77, 132, 38 and 46 μg/m³ to 60, 109, 20 and 43 μg/m³. It was estimated that the improvement in air quality avoided 27,021 (95 % CIs 12,548-39,738) premature deaths attributed to air pollution exposure based on an exposure-response function, including 45 %, 17 % and 15 % of cardiopulmonary, lung cancer and respiratory morality cases. Air pollution reduction was also effective in reducing work time loss, which reduced the total working time loss by 3.8 × 10⁷ (95 % CIs 1.8 × 10⁷-5.6 × 10⁷) h, and the per capita working time loss by 0.28 (95 % CIs 0.13-0.41) h/capita by 2018. From the economic aspect, air pollution control actions in those regions saved 95.6 (95 % CIs 44.2-141) billion CNY economic loss by using the value of statistical life (VSL). The total benefit-cost ratio was 63.7 % (95 % CIs 29.4 %-93.7 %). The cost-effectiveness in Beijing and Tianjin were relatively low due to the regional contribution from other cities of the air pollution transmission channel. Despite the uncertainties, the results clearly show the significance of the environmental, health and economic benefits of actions in the BTH and surrounding "2 + 26" regions for combating air pollution.

Evaluating long-term emission impacts of large-scale electric vehicle deployment in the US using a human-Earth systems model

While large-scale adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) globally would reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) and traditional air pollutant emissions from the transportation sector, emissions from the electric sector, refineries, and potentially other sources would change in response. Here, a multi-sector human-Earth systems model is used to evaluate the net long-term emission implications of large-scale EV adoption in the US over widely differing pathways of the evolution of the electric sector. Our results indicate that high EV adoption would decrease net CO2 emissions through 2050, even for a scenario where all electric sector capacity additions through 2050 are fossil fuel technologies. Greater net CO2 reductions would be realized for scenarios that emphasize renewables or decarbonization of electricity production. Net air pollutant emission changes in 2050 are relatively small compared to expected overall decreases from recent levels to 2050. States participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative experience greater CO2 and air pollutant reductions on a percentage basis. These results suggest that coordinated, multi-sector planning can greatly enhance the climate and environmental benefits of EVs. Additional factors are identified that influence the net emission impacts of EVs, including the retirement of coal capacity, refinery operations under reduced gasoline demands, and price-induced fuel switching in residential heating and in the industrial sector.