Minimal Climate Impacts From Short-Lived Climate Forcers Following Emission Reductions Related to the COVID-19 Pandemic

The worldwide COVID-19 lockdown impacts on global secondary inorganic aerosols and radiative budget

Global lockdown measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) led to air pollutant emission reductions. While the COVID-19 lockdown impacts on both trace gas and total particulate pollutants have been widely investigated, secondary aerosol formation from trace gases remains unclear. To that end, we quantify the COVID-19 lockdown impacts on NOx and SO2 emissions and sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosols using multiconstituent satellite data assimilation and model simulations. We find that anthropogenic emissions over major polluted regions were reduced by 19 to 25% for NOx and 14 to 20% for SO2 during April 2020. These emission reductions led to 8 to 21% decreases in sulfate and nitrate aerosols over highly polluted areas, corresponding to >34% of the observed aerosol optical depth declines and a global aerosol radiative forcing of +0.14 watts per square meter relative to business-as-usual scenario. These results point to the critical importance of secondary aerosol pollutants in quantifying climate impacts of future mitigation measures.

Ozone pollution in London and Edinburgh: spatiotemporal characteristics, trends, transport and the impact of COVID-19 control measures

Air pollution remains the most serious environmental health issue in the United Kingdom while also carrying non-trivial economic costs. The COVID-19 lockdown periods reduced anthropogenic emissions and offered unique conditions for air pollution research. This study sources fine-granularity geo-spatial air quality and meteorological data for the capital cities of two UK countries (i.e. England's capital London and Scotland's capital Edinburgh) from the UK Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN) spanning 2016–2022 to assess long-term trends in several criteria pollutants (PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2, O3, and CO) and the changes in ozone pollution during the pandemic period. Unlike other studies conducted thus far, this research integrates several tools in trend estimation, including the Mann-Kendall test, the Theil-Sen estimator with bootstrap resampling, and the generalized additive model (GAM). Moreover, several investigations, including cluster trajectory analysis, pollution rose plots, and potential source contribution function (PSCF), are also employed to identify potential origin sources for air masses carrying precursors and estimate their contributions to ozone concentrations at receptor sites and downwind areas. The main findings reveal that most of the criteria pollutants show a decreasing trend in both geographies over the seven-year period, except for O3, which presents a significant ascending trend in London and a milder ascending trend in Edinburgh. However, O3 concentrations have significantly decreased during the year 2020 in both urban areas, despite registering sharp increases during the first lockdown period. In turn, these findings indicate on one hand that the O3 generation process is in the VOC-limited regime in both UK urban areas and, on the other hand, confirm previous findings that, when stretching the analysis period, diminishing ozone levels can lead to NOx reduction even in VOC-controlled geographies. Trajectory analysis reveals that northern Europe, particularly Norway and Sweden, is a principal ozone pollution source for Edinburgh, whereas, for London, mainland Europe (i.e., the Benelux countries) is another significant source. The results have important policy implications, revealing that effective and efficient NOx abatement measures spur ozone pollution in the short-term, but the increase can be transient. Moreover, policymakers in London and Edinburgh should consider that both local and transboundary sources contribute to local ozone pollution.

Sustainable development goals under threat? Multidimensional impact of COVID-19 on our planet and society outweigh short term global pollution reduction

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call on all nations to accomplish 17 broad global development goals by 2030. However, the COVID-19 pandemic presents a challenging period in human history, causing large-scale impacts on society and the environment as governments shift priorities and divert funding in response to this pandemic. Through a literature survey and data acquirement from various international organizations (e.g. United Nations and European Space Agency), this manuscript is intended to provide critical insights into the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the SDGs. We briefly describe this pandemic's positive and short-term effects on the environment, followed by a critical evaluation of its potential long-term impacts on the environment, society, and the SDGs. On the basis of COVID-19 effects, the SDGs are classified into three categories: directly-affected SDGs, indirectly-affected SDGs, and a stand-alone category. The COVID-19-induced lockdowns and restrictions resulted in a short-term decline in environmental pollution and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, providing valuable data for climate advocates and researchers. These positive impacts were essentially temporary due to the synchronized global response to the pandemic. The halted focus on the progress of the SDGs greatly impacts the global green transition to a healthy and sustainable world. COVID-19 threatens to impede the progress toward a prosperous, environment-friendly, and sustainable global development in multiple ways. These multi-dimensional threats have been critically evaluated, along with a description of potential solutions to curtail the adverse effects of COVID-19 on the SDGs. Considering the limited data regarding the impacts of the pandemic on the SDGs, diverse collaborative studies at the regional and global levels are recommended.

Effective Radiative Forcings Due To Anthropogenic Emission Changes Under Covid-19 and Post-Pandemic Recovery Scenarios

With the continuation of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic, the impacts of this catastrophe on anthropogenic emissions are no longer limited to its early stage. This study quantitatively estimates effective radiative forcings (ERFs) due to anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) and aerosols for the period 2020-2050 under the three latest Covid-19 economic-recovery scenarios using an aerosol-climate model. The results indicate that reductions in both WMGHG and aerosol emissions under the Covid-19 green recoveries lead to increases ranging from 0 to 0.3 W m^-2 in global annual mean anthropogenic ERF over the period 2020-2050 relative to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 scenario (the baseline case). These positive ERFs are mainly attributed to the rapid and dramatic decreases in atmospheric aerosol content that increase net shortwave radiative flux at the top of atmosphere via weakening the direct aerosol effect and low cloud cover. At the regional scale, reductions in aerosols contribute to positive ERFs throughout the Northern Hemisphere, while the decreased WMGHGs dominate negative ERFs over the areas away from aerosol pollution, such as the Southern Hemisphere oceans. This drives a strong interhemispheric contrast of ERFs. In contrast, the increased anthropogenic emissions under the fossil-fueled recovery scenario lead to an increase of 0.3 W m^-2 in global annual mean ERF in 2050 compared with the baseline case, primarily due to the contribution of WMGHG ERFs. The regional ERF changes are highly dependent on local cloud radiative effects.

Impact of the COVID‐19 Economic Downturn on Tropospheric Ozone Trends: An Uncertainty Weighted Data Synthesis for Quantifying Regional Anomalies Above Western North America and Europe

This study quantifies the association between the COVID‐19 economic downturn and 2020 tropospheric ozone anomalies above Europe and western North America, and their impact on long‐term trends. Anomaly detection for an atmospheric time series is usually carried out by identifying potentially aberrant data points relative to climatological values. However, detecting ozone anomalies from sparsely sampled ozonesonde profiles (once per week at most sites) is challenging due to ozone's high temporal variability. We first demonstrate the challenges for summarizing regional trends based on independent time series from multiple nearby ozone profiling stations. We then propose a novel regional‐scale anomaly detection framework based on generalized additive mixed models, which accounts for the sampling frequency and inherent data uncertainty associated with each vertical profile data set, measured by ozonesondes, lidar or commercial aircraft. This method produces a long‐term monthly time series with high vertical resolution that reports ozone anomalies from the surface to the middle‐stratosphere under a unified framework, which can be used to quantify the regional‐scale ozone anomalies during the COVID‐19 economic downturn. By incorporating extensive commercial aircraft data and frequently sampled ozonesonde profiles above Europe, we show that the complex interannual variability of ozone can be adequately captured by our modeling approach. The results show that free tropospheric ozone negative anomalies in 2020 are the most profound since the benchmark year of 1994 for both Europe and western North America, and positive trends over 1994–2019 are diminished in both regions by the 2020 anomalies.

2020 is the only year that both Europe and western North America show strong negative tropospheric ozone anomalies since 1994

Positive free tropospheric ozone trends above Europe and western North America since 1994 are diminished by the 2020 anomalies

Data integration of multiple time series provides a better understanding of ozone variability compared to individual records

Radiative effects of reduced aerosol emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the future recovery

The pandemic in 2020 caused an abrupt change in the emission of anthropogenic aerosols and their precursors. We estimate the associated change in the aerosol radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and the surface. To that end, we perform new simulations with the CMIP6 global climate model EC-Earth3. The simulations use the here newly created data for the anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated effect on clouds from the simple plumes parameterization (MACv2-SP), based on revised SO₂ and NH₃ emission scenarios. Our results highlight the small impact of the pandemic on the global aerosol radiative forcing in 2020 compared to the CMIP6 scenario SSP2-4.5 of the order of +0.04 Wm^-2, which is small compared to the natural year-to-year variability in the radiation budget. Natural variability also limits the ability to detect a meaningful regional difference in the anthropogenic aerosol radiative effects. We identify the best chances to find a significant change in radiation at the surface during cloud-free conditions for regions that were strongly polluted in the past years. The post-pandemic recovery scenarios indicate a spread in the aerosol forcing of -0.68 to -0.38 Wm^-2 for 2050 relative to the pre-industrial, which translates to a difference of +0.05 to -0.25 Wm^-2 compared to the 2050 baseline from SSP2-4.5. This spread falls within the present-day uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing and the CMIP6 spread in aerosol forcing at the end of the 21st century. We release the new MACv2-SP data for studies on the climate response to the pandemic and the recovery scenarios. Our 2050 forcing estimates suggest that sustained aerosol emission reductions during the post-pandemic recovery cause a stronger climate response than in 2020, i.e., there is a delayed influence of the pandemic on climate.

Impact of COVID-19 induced lockdown on land surface temperature, aerosol, and urban heat in Europe and North America

The outbreak of SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) has posed a serious threat to human beings, society, and economic activities all over the world. Worldwide rigorous containment measures for limiting the spread of the virus have several beneficial environmental implications due to decreased anthropogenic emissions and air pollutants, which provide a unique opportunity to understand and quantify the human impact on atmospheric environment. In the present study, the associated changes in Land Surface Temperature (LST), aerosol, and atmospheric water vapor content were investigated over highly COVID-19 impacted areas, namely, Europe and North America. The key findings revealed a large-scale negative standardized LST anomaly during nighttime across Europe (-0.11 °C to -2.6 °C), USA (-0.70 °C) and Canada (-0.27 °C) in March-May of the pandemic year 2020 compared to the mean of 2015-2019, which can be partly ascribed to the lockdown effect. The reduced LST was corroborated with the negative anomaly of air temperature measured at meteorological stations (i.e. -0.46 °C to -0.96 °C). A larger decrease in nighttime LST was also seen in urban areas (by ∼1-2 °C) compared to rural landscapes, which suggests a weakness of the urban heat island effect during the lockdown period due to large decrease in absorbing aerosols and air pollutants. On the contrary, daytime LST increased over most parts of Europe due to less attenuation of solar radiation by atmospheric aerosols. Synoptic meteorological variability and several surface-related factors may mask these changes and significantly affect the variations in LST, aerosols and water vapor content. The changes in LST may be a temporary phenomenon during the lockdown but provides an excellent opportunity to investigate the effects of various forcing controlling factors in urban microclimate and a strong evidence base for potential environmental benefits through urban planning and policy implementation.

Tropospheric NO2 and O3 Response to COVID-19 Lockdown Restrictions at the National and Urban Scales in Germany

This study estimates the influence of anthropogenic emission reductions on nitrogen dioxide (N O 2 ) and ozone ( O 3 ) concentration changes in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic period using in-situ surface and Sentinel-5 Precursor TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite column measurements and GEOS-Chem model simulations. We show that reductions in anthropogenic emissions in eight German metropolitan areas reduced mean in-situ (& column)N O 2 concentrations by 23 % (& 16 % ) between March 21 and June 30, 2020 after accounting for meteorology, whereas the corresponding mean in-situ O 3 concentration increased by 4 % between March 21 and May 31, 2020, and decreased by 3 % in June 2020, compared to 2019. In the winter and spring, the degree ofN O X saturation of ozone production is stronger than in the summer. This implies that future reductions inN O X emissions in these metropolitan areas are likely to increase ozone pollution during winter and spring if appropriate mitigation measures are not implemented. TROPOMIN O 2 concentrations decreased nationwide during the stricter lockdown period after accounting for meteorology with the exception of North-West Germany which can be attributed to enhancedN O X emissions from agricultural soils.

East Asian climate response to COVID-19 lockdown measures in China

The COVID-19 pandemic caused disruptions of public life and imposed lockdown measures in 2020 resulted in considerable reductions of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It still remains unclear how the associated short-term changes in atmospheric chemistry influenced weather and climate on regional scales. To understand the underlying physical mechanisms, we conduct ensemble aerosol perturbation experiments with the Community Earth System Model, version 2. In the simulations reduced anthropogenic aerosol emissions in February generate anomalous surface warming and warm-moist air advection which promotes low-level cloud formation over China. Although the simulated response is weak, it is detectable in some areas, in qualitative agreement with the observations. The negative dynamical cloud feedback offsets the effect from reduced cloud condensation nuclei. Additional perturbation experiments with strongly amplified air pollution over China reveal a nonlinear sensitivity of regional atmospheric conditions to chemical/radiative perturbations. COVID-19-related changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions provide an excellent testbed to elucidate the interaction between air pollution and climate.

Financial disclosure quality and sustainability disclosure quality. A case in China

This paper empirically examines whether there is an association between financial reporting disclosure quality and sustainability disclosure quality of the top 100 socially reputed Chinese listed firms. The paper computed financial disclosure quality by empirically combining earning qualities of accrual, persistence, predictability, and smoothness. Using content analysis and survey questionnaire research methods, it calculated sustainability quality by combining disclosure quantity (through quantitative weightings), disclosure type (through qualitative weightings), and disclosure item importance (through qualitative weightings) of economic, social, and environmental disclosures made in annual and sustainability reports, ascertained using the Global Reporting Initiative sustainability framework. The study finds that sustainability disclosure in the current period is sufficiently associated with financial disclosure quality of the current period and future period. Consistent with stakeholder theory, firms with a social reputation are perceived as trustworthy by stakeholders and shareholders. The findings lead to a cultural stakeholder theory where underlying values of societal culture create a condition supporting mutual stakeholder relationships between firm and various stakeholders. Demonstrating trustworthiness through disclosures can help boost consumer confidence and foreign trade relations for Chinese firms. The Chinese government can design innovative schemes to reward and promote trustworthiness in firms, such as regulating base-point reductions in interest rates on borrowing or raising funds.

The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19: Initial Results From CovidMIP

Many nations responded to the corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO2, other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. 12 models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020-2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID-19-related emission reductions on near-term climate.

Global Changes in Secondary Atmospheric Pollutants During the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic

We use the global Community Earth System Model to investigate the response of secondary pollutants (ozone O3, secondary organic aerosols SOA) in different parts of the world in response to modified emissions of primary pollutants during the COVID-19 pandemic. We quantify the respective effects of the reductions in NOx and in volatile organic carbon (VOC) emissions, which, in most cases, affect oxidants in opposite ways. Using model simulations, we show that the level of NOx has been reduced by typically 40% in China during February 2020 and by similar amounts in many areas of Europe and North America in mid-March to mid-April 2020, in good agreement with space and surface observations. We show that, relative to a situation in which the emission reductions are ignored and despite the calculated increase in hydroxyl and peroxy radicals, the ozone concentration increased only in a few NOx-saturated regions (northern China, northern Europe, and the US) during the winter months of the pandemic when the titration of this molecule by NOx was reduced. In other regions, where ozone is NOx-controlled, the concentration of ozone decreased. SOA concentrations decrease in response to the concurrent reduction in the NOx and VOC emissions. The model also shows that atmospheric meteorological anomalies produced substantial variations in the concentrations of chemical species during the pandemic. In Europe, for example, a large fraction of the ozone increase in February 2020 was associated with meteorological anomalies, while in the North China Plain, enhanced ozone concentrations resulted primarily from reduced emissions of primary pollutants.

COVID-19 Crisis Reduces Free Tropospheric Ozone Across the Northern Hemisphere

Throughout spring and summer 2020, ozone stations in the northern extratropics recorded unusually low ozone in the free troposphere. From April to August, and from 1 to 8 kilometers altitude, ozone was on average 7% (≈4 nmol/mol) below the 2000-2020 climatological mean. Such low ozone, over several months, and at so many stations, has not been observed in any previous year since at least 2000. Atmospheric composition analyses from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service and simulations from the NASA GMI model indicate that the large 2020 springtime ozone depletion in the Arctic stratosphere contributed less than one-quarter of the observed tropospheric anomaly. The observed anomaly is consistent with recent chemistry-climate model simulations, which assume emissions reductions similar to those caused by the COVID-19 crisis. COVID-19 related emissions reductions appear to be the major cause for the observed reduced free tropospheric ozone in 2020.

Assessment of the COVID-19 Lockdown Effects on Spectral Aerosol Scattering and Absorption Properties in Athens, Greece

COVID-19 is evolving into one of the worst pandemics in recent history, claiming a death toll of over 1.5 million as of December 2020. In an attempt to limit the expansion of the pandemic in its initial phase, nearly all countries imposed restriction measures, which resulted in an unprecedented reduction of air pollution. This study aims to assess the impact of the lockdown effects due to COVID-19 on in situ measured aerosol properties, namely spectral-scattering (bsca) and absorption (babs) coefficients, black carbon (BC) concentrations, single-scattering albedo (SSA), scattering and absorption Ångström exponents (SAE, AAE) in Athens, Greece. Moreover, a comparison is performed with the regional background site of Finokalia, Crete, for a better assessment of the urban impact on observed differences. The study examines pre-lockdown (1–22 March 2020), lockdown (23 March–3 May 2020) and post-lockdown (4–31 May 2020) periods, while the aerosol properties are also compared with a 3–4 year preceding period (2016/2017–2019). Comparison of meteorological parameters in Athens, between the lockdown period and respective days in previous years, showed only marginal variation, which is not deemed sufficient in order to justify the notable changes in aerosol concentrations and optical properties. The largest reduction during the lockdown period was observed for babs compared to the pre-lockdown (−39%) and to the same period in previous years (−36%). This was intensified during the morning traffic hours (−60%), reflecting the large decrease in vehicular emissions. Furthermore, AAE increased during the lockdown period due to reduced emissions from fossil-fuel combustion, while a smaller (−21%) decrease was observed for bsca along with slight increases (6%) in SAE and SSA values, indicating that scattering aerosol properties were less affected by the decrease in vehicular emissions, as they are more dependent on regional sources and atmospheric processing. Nighttime BC emissions related to residential wood-burning were slightly increased during the lockdown period, with respect to previous-year means. On the contrary, aerosol and pollution changes during the lockdown period at Finokalia were low and highly sensitive to natural sources and processes.