Monthly Patterns of Ammonia Over the Contiguous United States at 2-km Resolution

Regime shift in secondary inorganic aerosol formation and nitrogen deposition in the rural United States

Secondary inorganic aerosols play an important role in air pollution and climate change, and their formation modulates the atmospheric deposition of reactive nitrogen (including oxidized and reduced nitrogen), thus impacting the nitrogen cycle. Large-scale and long-term analyses of secondary inorganic aerosol formation based on model simulations have substantial uncertainties. Here we improve constraints on secondary inorganic aerosol formation using decade-long in situ observations of aerosol composition and gaseous precursors from multiple monitoring networks across the United States. We reveal a shift in the secondary inorganic aerosol formation regime in the rural United States between 2011 and 2020, making rural areas less sensitive to changes in ammonia concentrations and shortening the effective atmospheric lifetime of reduced forms of reactive nitrogen. This leads to potential increases in reactive nitrogen deposition near ammonia emission hotspots, with ecosystem impacts warranting further investigation. Ammonia (NH3), a critical but not directly regulated precursor of fine particulate matter in the United States, has been increasingly scrutinized to improve air quality. Our findings, however, show that controlling NH3 became significantly less effective for mitigating fine particulate matter in the rural United States. We highlight the need for more collocated aerosol and precursor observations for better characterization of secondary inorganic aerosols formation in urban areas.

Data Gap: Air Quality Networks Miss Air Pollution from Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations

In the U.S., the agricultural sector is the largest controllable source of several air pollutants, including ammonia (NH3), which is a key precursor to PM2.5 formation. Livestock waste is the dominant contributor to ammonia emissions. In contrast to most controllable air pollutants, satellite records show ammonia mixing ratios are rising. The number of confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs) that generate considerable livestock waste is also increasing. Spatial and temporal trends in USDA-reported animal numbers normalized by county area at medium and large CAFOs provide plausible explanations for patterns in satellite-derived NH3 over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS). The correlation between summertime ammonia derived from the European Space Agency's (ESA) Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) and CAFO animal unit density in 2017 is positive and significant (r = 0.642; p ≈ 0). The temporal changes from 2002 to 2017 in animal unit density and NH3 derived from NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) are spatially similar. Trends and ambient concentrations of PM2.5 mass in agricultural regions are difficult to assess relative to those of urban population centers given the sparseness of rural monitors in regulatory surface networks. Results suggest that in agricultural areas where ammonia concentrations and animal density are highest, air quality improvement lags behind the national average.

Minimizing the impacts of the ammonia economy on the nitrogen cycle and climate

Ammonia (NH3) is an attractive low-carbon fuel and hydrogen carrier. However, losses and inefficiencies across the value chain could result in reactive nitrogen emissions (NH3, NOx, and N2O), negatively impacting air quality, the environment, human health, and climate. A relatively robust ammonia economy (30 EJ/y) could perturb the global nitrogen cycle by up to 65 Mt/y with a 5% nitrogen loss rate, equivalent to 50% of the current global perturbation caused by fertilizers. Moreover, the emission rate of nitrous oxide (N2O), a potent greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting molecule, determines whether ammonia combustion has a greenhouse footprint comparable to renewable energy sources or higher than coal (100 to 1,400 gCO2e/kWh). The success of the ammonia economy hence hinges on adopting optimal practices and technologies that minimize reactive nitrogen emissions. We discuss how this constraint should be included in the ongoing broad engineering research to reduce environmental concerns and prevent the lock-in of high-leakage practices.

4D-Var Inversion of European NH3 Emissions Using CrIS NH3 Measurements and GEOS-Chem Adjoint With Bi-Directional and Uni-Directional Flux Schemes

We conduct the first 4D-Var inversion of NH₃ accounting for NH₃ bi-directional flux, using CrIS satellite NH₃ observations over Europe in 2016. We find posterior NH₃ emissions peak more in springtime than prior emissions at continental to national scales, and annually they are generally smaller than the prior emissions over central Europe, but larger over most of the rest of Europe. Annual posterior anthropogenic NH₃ emissions for 25 European Union members (EU25) are 25% higher than the prior emissions and very close (<2% difference) to other inventories. Our posterior annual anthropogenic emissions for EU25, the UK, the Netherlands, and Switzerland are generally 10%-20% smaller than when treating NH₃ fluxes as uni-directional emissions, while the monthly regional difference can be up to 34% (Switzerland in July). Compared to monthly mean in-situ observations, our posterior NH₃ emissions from both schemes generally improve the magnitude and seasonality of simulated surface NH₃ and bulk NH _x wet deposition throughout most of Europe, whereas evaluation against hourly measurements at a background site shows the bi-directional scheme better captures observed diurnal variability of surface NH₃. This contrast highlights the need for accurately simulating diurnal variability of NH₃ in assimilation of sun-synchronous observations and also the potential value of future geostationary satellite observations. Overall, our top-down ammonia emissions can help to examine the effectiveness of air pollution control policies to facilitate future air pollution management, as well as helping us understand the uncertainty in top-down NH₃ emissions estimates associated with treatment of NH₃ surface exchange.

Ammonia Concentration in Ambient Air in a Peri-Urban Area Using a Laser Photoacoustic Spectroscopy Detector

Measuring ammonia from the environmental air is a sensitive and prioritized issue due to its harmful effects on humans, ecosystems, and climate. Ammonia is an environmental pollutant that has an important role in forming secondary inorganic aerosols, the main component of fine particulate matter concentrations in the urban atmosphere. Through this study, we present a gas analyzer that utilizes the technique of laser photoacoustic spectroscopy to measure ammonia concentration in three different sites located in Magurele, (44°20'58″ N 26°01'47″ E, 93 m altitude), Romania, from March to August 2021 at the breathing level of 1.5 m above ground. The ammonia concentrations from the ambient air were elevated in summer (mean of 46.03 ± 8.05 ppb (parts per billion)) compared to those measured in spring (18.62 ± 2.92 ppb), which means that atmospheric temperature affects ammonia concentrations. The highest mean ammonia concentrations occurred in August, with an ammonia concentration level of 100.68 ± 11.12 ppb, and the low mean ammonia concentrations occurred in March, with an ammonia level concentration of 0.161 ± 0.03 ppb. The results confirm that meteorological characteristics (i.e., temperature) and motor vehicles are major contributors to the elevated ammonia levels during the monitoring period.

The Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling System: Overview and Recommendations for Future Development

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest, most productive, and most biologically diverse estuary in the continental United States providing crucial habitat and natural resources for culturally and economically important species. Pressures from human population growth and associated development and agricultural intensification have led to excessive nutrient and sediment inputs entering the Bay, negatively affecting the health of the Bay ecosystem and the economic services it provides. The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is a unique program formally created in 1983 as a multi-stakeholder partnership to guide and foster restoration of the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. Since its inception, the CBP Partnership has been developing, updating, and applying a complex linked modeling system of watershed, airshed, and estuary models as a planning tool to inform strategic management decisions and Bay restoration efforts. This paper provides a description of the 2017 CBP Modeling System and the higher trophic level models developed by the NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office, along with specific recommendations that emerged from a 2018 workshop designed to inform future model development. Recommendations highlight the need for simulation of watershed inputs, conditions, processes, and practices at higher resolution to provide improved information to guide local nutrient and sediment management plans. More explicit and extensive modeling of connectivity between watershed landforms and estuary sub-areas, estuarine hydrodynamics, watershed and estuarine water quality, the estuarine-watershed socioecological system, and living resources will be important to broaden and improve characterization of responses to targeted nutrient and sediment load reductions. Finally, the value and importance of maintaining effective collaborations among jurisdictional managers, scientists, modelers, support staff, and stakeholder communities is emphasized. An open collaborative and transparent process has been a key element of successes to date and is vitally important as the CBP Partnership moves forward with modeling system improvements that help stakeholders evolve new knowledge, improve management strategies, and better communicate outcomes.

Predicting the Nonlinear Response of PM2.5 and Ozone to Precursor Emission Changes with a Response Surface Model

Reducing PM2.5 and ozone concentrations is important to protect human health and the environment. Chemical transport models, such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, are valuable tools for exploring policy options for improving air quality but are computationally expensive. Here, we statistically fit an efficient polynomial function in a response surface model (pf-RSM) to CMAQ simulations over the eastern U.S. for January and July 2016. The pf-RSM predictions were evaluated using out-of-sample CMAQ simulations and used to examine the nonlinear response of air quality to emission changes. Predictions of the pf-RSM are in good agreement with the out-of-sample CMAQ simulations, with some exceptions for cases with anthropogenic emission reductions approaching 100%. NOX emission reductions were more effective for reducing PM2.5 and ozone concentrations than SO2, NH3, or traditional VOC emission reductions. NH3 emission reductions effectively reduced nitrate concentrations in January but increased secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations in July. More work is needed on SOA formation under conditions of low NH3 emissions to verify the responses of SOA to NH3 emission changes predicted here. Overall, the pf-RSM performs well in the eastern U.S., but next-generation RSMs based on deep learning may be needed to meet the computational requirements of typical regulatory applications.

Ammonia Dry Deposition in an Alpine Ecosystem Traced to Agricultural Emission Hotpots

Elevated reactive nitrogen (N_r) deposition is a concern for alpine ecosystems, and dry NH₃ deposition is a key contributor. Understanding how emission hotspots impact downwind ecosystems through dry NH₃ deposition provides opportunities for effective mitigation. However, direct NH₃ flux measurements with sufficient temporal resolution to quantify such events are rare. Here, we measured NH₃ fluxes at Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) during two summers and analyzed transport events from upwind agricultural and urban sources in northeastern Colorado. We deployed open-path NH₃ sensors on a mobile laboratory and an eddy covariance tower to measure NH₃ concentrations and fluxes. Our spatial sampling illustrated an upslope event that transported NH₃ emissions from the hotspot to RMNP. Observed NH₃ deposition was significantly higher when backtrajectories passed through only the agricultural region (7.9 ng m^-2 s^-1) versus only the urban area (1.0 ng m^-2 s^-1) and both urban and agricultural areas (2.7 ng m^-2 s^-1). Cumulative NH₃ fluxes were calculated using observed, bidirectional modeled, and gap-filled fluxes. More than 40% of the total dry NH₃ deposition occurred when air masses were traced back to agricultural source regions. More generally, we identified that 10 (25) more national parks in the U.S. are within 100 (200) km of an NH₃ hotspot, and more observations are needed to quantify the impacts of these hotspots on dry NH₃ deposition in these regions.