An assessment of marine, estuarine, and riverine habitat vulnerability to climate change in the Northeast U.S

Climate change is impacting the function and distribution of habitats used by marine, coastal, and diadromous species. These impacts often exacerbate the anthropogenic stressors that habitats face, particularly in the coastal environment. We conducted a climate vulnerability assessment of 52 marine, estuarine, and riverine habitats in the Northeast U.S. to develop an ecosystem-scale understanding of the impact of climate change on these habitats. The trait-based assessment considers the overall vulnerability of a habitat to climate change to be a function of two main components, sensitivity and exposure, and relies on a process of expert elicitation. The climate vulnerability ranks ranged from low to very high, with living habitats identified as the most vulnerable. Over half of the habitats examined in this study are expected to be impacted negatively by climate change, while four habitats are expected to have positive effects. Coastal habitats were also identified as highly vulnerable, in part due to the influence of non-climate anthropogenic stressors. The results of this assessment provide regional managers and scientists with a tool to inform habitat conservation, restoration, and research priorities, fisheries and protected species management, and coastal and ocean planning.

Estimating target strength of estuarine pelagic fish assemblages using fisheries survey data

In fisheries acoustics, the target strength (TS; dB re m²) is used to compute biological metrics such as fish biomass and density. The TS is challenging to characterize because of its stochastic relationship with fish physiology, orientation, depth, species assemblage, and size distributions. These challenges were addressed by using acoustic and physical samples of fish from trawls in the Penobscot River Estuary, Maine. The pelagic species assemblage was dominated by clupeids and osmerids. The TS was measured from individual fish using single target detection and echo tracking algorithms. An expectation-maximization algorithm was applied to identify the components of the TS and total length (TL; cm) distributions for the mixed species assemblages. Regressions were used to estimate the parameters of TS = α log₁₀(TL) + β. The parameters, α = 31.2 [standard error (SE) 0.87] and β = -79.6 (SE 0.93), were similar to published studies from these species, but our slope and intercept were higher than those in studies from freshwater and lower than those from marine systems. These results suggest that acoustic surveys in estuaries with mixed species assemblages should carefully consider alternatives to "standard" TS-fish length equations. These results will provide necessary parameters to allow for interpretation of acoustic survey data from systems with a similar composition of pelagic species.

The Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling System: Overview and Recommendations for Future Development

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest, most productive, and most biologically diverse estuary in the continental United States providing crucial habitat and natural resources for culturally and economically important species. Pressures from human population growth and associated development and agricultural intensification have led to excessive nutrient and sediment inputs entering the Bay, negatively affecting the health of the Bay ecosystem and the economic services it provides. The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is a unique program formally created in 1983 as a multi-stakeholder partnership to guide and foster restoration of the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. Since its inception, the CBP Partnership has been developing, updating, and applying a complex linked modeling system of watershed, airshed, and estuary models as a planning tool to inform strategic management decisions and Bay restoration efforts. This paper provides a description of the 2017 CBP Modeling System and the higher trophic level models developed by the NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office, along with specific recommendations that emerged from a 2018 workshop designed to inform future model development. Recommendations highlight the need for simulation of watershed inputs, conditions, processes, and practices at higher resolution to provide improved information to guide local nutrient and sediment management plans. More explicit and extensive modeling of connectivity between watershed landforms and estuary sub-areas, estuarine hydrodynamics, watershed and estuarine water quality, the estuarine-watershed socioecological system, and living resources will be important to broaden and improve characterization of responses to targeted nutrient and sediment load reductions. Finally, the value and importance of maintaining effective collaborations among jurisdictional managers, scientists, modelers, support staff, and stakeholder communities is emphasized. An open collaborative and transparent process has been a key element of successes to date and is vitally important as the CBP Partnership moves forward with modeling system improvements that help stakeholders evolve new knowledge, improve management strategies, and better communicate outcomes.

Community Science for Coastal Acidification Monitoring and Research

Ocean and coastal acidification (OCA) present a unique set of sustainability challenges at the human-ecological interface. Extensive biogeochemical monitoring that can assess local acidification conditions, distinguish multiple drivers of changing carbonate chemistry, and ultimately inform local and regional response strategies is necessary for successful adaptation to OCA. However, the sampling frequency and cost-prohibitive scientific equipment needed to monitor OCA are barriers to implementing the widespread monitoring of dynamic coastal conditions. Here, we demonstrate through a case study that existing community-based water monitoring initiatives can help address these challenges and contribute to OCA science. We document how iterative, sequential outreach, workshop-based training, and coordinated monitoring activities through the Northeast Coastal Acidification Network (a) assessed the capacity of northeastern United States community science programs and (b) engaged community science programs productively with OCA monitoring efforts. Our results (along with the companion manuscript) indicate that community science programs are capable of collecting robust scientific information pertinent to OCA and are positioned to monitor in locations that would critically expand the coverage of current OCA research. Furthermore, engaging community stakeholders in OCA science and outreach enabled a platform for dialogue about OCA among other interrelated environmental concerns and fostered a series of co-benefits relating to public participation in resource and risk management. Activities in support of community science monitoring have an impact not only by increasing local understanding of OCA but also by promoting public education and community participation in potential adaptation measures.

Synoptic assessment of coastal total alkalinity through community science

Comprehensive sampling of the carbonate system in estuaries and coastal waters can be difficult and expensive because of the complex and heterogeneous nature of near-shore environments. We show that sample collection by community science programs is a viable strategy for expanding estuarine carbonate system monitoring and prioritizing regions for more targeted assessment. 'Shell Day' was a single-day regional water monitoring event coordinating coastal carbonate chemistry observations by 59 community science programs and seven research institutions in the northeastern United States, in which 410 total alkalinity (TA) samples from 86 stations were collected. Field replicates collected at both low and high tides had a mean standard deviation between replicates of 3.6 ± 0.3 μmol kg^-1 (σ _mean ± SE, n = 145) or 0.20 ± 0.02%. This level of precision demonstrates that with adequate protocols for sample collection, handling, storage, and analysis, community science programs are able to collect TA samples leading to high-quality analyses and data. Despite correlations between salinity, temperature, and TA observed at multiple spatial scales, empirical predictions of TA had relatively high root mean square error >48 μmol kg^-1. Additionally, ten stations displayed tidal variability in TA that was not likely driven by low TA freshwater inputs. As such, TA cannot be predicted accurately from salinity using a single relationship across the northeastern US region, though predictions may be viable at more localized scales where consistent freshwater and seawater endmembers can be defined. There was a high degree of geographic heterogeneity in both mean and tidal variability in TA, and this single-day snapshot sampling identified three patterns driving variation in TA, with certain locations exhibiting increased risk of acidification. The success of Shell Day implies that similar community science based events could be conducted in other regions to not only expand understanding of the coastal carbonate system, but also provide a way to inventory monitoring assets, build partnerships with stakeholders, and expand education and outreach to a broader constituency.

Synoptic assessment of coastal total alkalinity through community science

Comprehensive sampling of the carbonate system in estuaries and coastal waters can be difficult and expensive because of the complex and heterogeneous nature of near-shore environments. We show that sample collection by community science programs is a viable strategy for expanding estuarine carbonate system monitoring and prioritizing regions for more targeted assessment. 'Shell Day' was a single-day regional water monitoring event coordinating coastal carbonate chemistry observations by 59 community science programs and seven research institutions in the northeastern United States, in which 410 total alkalinity (TA) samples from 86 stations were collected. Field replicates collected at both low and high tides had a mean standard deviation between replicates of 3.6 ± 0.3 μmol kg-1 (σ mean ± SE, n = 145) or 0.20 ± 0.02%. This level of precision demonstrates that with adequate protocols for sample collection, handling, storage, and analysis, community science programs are able to collect TA samples leading to high-quality analyses and data. Despite correlations between salinity, temperature, and TA observed at multiple spatial scales, empirical predictions of TA had relatively high root mean square error >48 μmol kg-1. Additionally, ten stations displayed tidal variability in TA that was not likely driven by low TA freshwater inputs. As such, TA cannot be predicted accurately from salinity using a single relationship across the northeastern US region, though predictions may be viable at more localized scales where consistent freshwater and seawater endmembers can be defined. There was a high degree of geographic heterogeneity in both mean and tidal variability in TA, and this single-day snapshot sampling identified three patterns driving variation in TA, with certain locations exhibiting increased risk of acidification. The success of Shell Day implies that similar community science based events could be conducted in other regions to not only expand understanding of the coastal carbonate system, but also provide a way to inventory monitoring assets, build partnerships with stakeholders, and expand education and outreach to a broader constituency.

The cresting wave: larval settlement and ocean temperatures predict change in the American lobster harvest

Adding to the challenge of predicting fishery recruitment in a changing environment is downscaling predictions to capture locally divergent trends over a species' range. In recent decades, the American lobster (Homarus americanus) fishery has shifted poleward along the northwest Atlantic coast, one of the most rapidly warming regions of the world's oceans. Building on evidence that early post-settlement life stages predict future fishery recruitment, we describe enhancements to a forecasting model that predict landings using an annual larval settlement index from 62 fixed sites among 10 study areas from Rhode Island, USA to New Brunswick, Canada. The model is novel because it incorporates local bottom temperature and disease prevalence to scale spatial and temporal changes in growth and mortality. For nine of these areas, adding environmental predictors significantly improved model performance, capturing a landings surge in the eastern Gulf of Maine, and collapse in southern New England. On the strength of these analyses, we project landings within the next decade to decline to near historical levels in the Gulf of Maine and no recovery in the south. This approach is timely as downscaled ocean temperature projections enable decision makers to assess their options under future climate scenarios at finer spatial scales.

The brighter side of climate change: How local oceanography amplified a lobster boom in the Gulf of Maine

Ocean warming can drive poleward shifts of commercially important species with potentially significant economic impacts. Nowhere are those impacts greater than in the Gulf of Maine where North America's most valuable marine species, the American lobster (Homarus americanus Milne Edwards), has thrived for decades. However, there are growing concerns that regional maritime economies will suffer as monitored shallow water young-of-year lobsters decline and landings shift to the northeast. We examine how the interplay of ocean warming, tidal mixing, and larval behavior results in a brighter side of climate change. Since the 1980s lobster stocks have increased fivefold. We suggest that this increase resulted from a complex interplay between lobster larvae settlement behavior, climate change, and local oceanographic conditions. Specifically, postlarval sounding behavior is confined to a thermal envelope above 12°C and below 20°C. Summer thermally stratified surface waters in southwestern regions have historically been well within the settlement thermal envelope. Although surface layers are warming fastest in this region, the steep depth-wise temperature gradient caused thermally suitable areas for larval settlement to expand only modestly. This contrasts with the northeast where strong tidal mixing prevents thermal stratification and recent ocean warming has made an expansive area of seabed more favorable for larval settlement. Recent declines in lobster settlement densities observed at shallow monitoring sites correlate with the expanded area of thermally suitable habitat associated with warmer summers. This leads us to hypothesize that the expanded area of suitable habitat may help explain strong lobster population increases in this region over the last decade and offset potential future declines. It also suggests that the fate of fisheries in a changing climate requires understanding local interaction between life stage-specific biological thresholds and finer scale oceanographic processes.

Model-assisted measurements of suspension-feeding flow velocities

Benthic marine suspension feeders provide an important link between benthic and pelagic ecosystems. The strength of this link is determined by suspension-feeding rates. Many studies have measured suspension-feeding rates using indirect clearance-rate methods, which are based on the depletion of suspended particles. Direct methods that measure the flow of water itself are less common, but they can be more broadly applied because, unlike indirect methods, direct methods are not affected by properties of the cleared particles. We present pumping rates for three species of suspension feeders, the clams Mya arenaria and Mercenaria mercenaria and the tunicate Ciona intestinalis, measured using a direct method based on particle image velocimetry (PIV). Past uses of PIV in suspension-feeding studies have been limited by strong laser reflections that interfere with velocity measurements proximate to the siphon. We used a new approach based on fitting PIV-based velocity profile measurements to theoretical profiles from computational fluid dynamic (CFD) models, which allowed us to calculate inhalant siphon Reynolds numbers (Re). We used these inhalant Re and measurements of siphon diameters to calculate exhalant Re, pumping rates, and mean inlet and outlet velocities. For the three species studied, inhalant Re ranged from 8 to 520, and exhalant Re ranged from 15 to 1073. Volumetric pumping rates ranged from 1.7 to 7.4 l h^-1 for M. arenaria, 0.3 to 3.6 l h^-1 for M. mercenaria and 0.07 to 0.97 l h^-1 for C. intestinalis We also used CFD models based on measured pumping rates to calculate capture regions, which reveal the spatial extent of pumped water. Combining PIV data with CFD models may be a valuable approach for future suspension-feeding studies.

Abiotic proxies for predictive mapping of nearshore benthic assemblages: implications for marine spatial planning

Marine spatial planning (MSP) should assist managers in guiding human activities toward sustainable practices and in minimizing user conflicts in our oceans. A necessary first step is to quantify spatial patterns of marine assemblages in order to understand the ecosystem's structure, function, and services. However, the large spatial scale, high economic value, and density of human activities in nearshore habitats often makes quantifying this component of marine ecosystems especially daunting. To address this challenge, we developed an assessment method that employs abiotic proxies to rapidly characterize marine assemblages in nearshore benthic environments with relatively high resolution. We evaluated this assessment method along 300 km of the State of Maine's coastal shelf (<100 m depth), a zone where high densities of buoyed lobster traps typically preclude extensive surveys by towed sampling gear (i.e., otter trawls). During the summer months of 2010-2013, we implemented a stratified-random survey using a small remotely operated vehicle that allowed us to work around lobster buoys and to quantify all benthic megafauna to species. Stratifying by substrate, depth, and coastal water masses, we found that abiotic variables explained a significant portion of variance (37-59%) in benthic species composition, diversity, biomass, and economic value. Generally, the density, diversity, and biomass of assemblages significantly increased with the substrate complexity (i.e., from sand-mud to ledge). The diversity, biomass, and economic value of assemblages also decreased significantly with increasing depth. Last, demersal fish densities, sessile invertebrate densities, species diversity, and assemblage biomass increased from east to west, while the abundance of mobile invertebrates and economic value decreased, corresponding mainly to the contrasting water mass characteristics of the Maine Coastal Current system (i.e., summertime current direction, speed, and temperature). Integrating modeled predictions with existing GIS layers for abiotic conditions allowed us to scale up important assemblage attributes to define key foundational ecological principles of MSP and to find priority regions where some bottom-disturbing activities would have minimal impact to benthic assemblages. We conclude that abiotic proxies can be strong forcing functions for the assembly of marine communities and therefore useful tools for spatial extrapolations of marine assemblages in congested (heavily used) nearshore habitats.

Long-term seasonal trends of nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment load from the non-tidal Susquehanna River Basin to Chesapeake Bay

Reduction of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and suspended sediment (SS) load has been a principal focus of Chesapeake Bay Watershed management for decades. To evaluate the progress of management actions in the Bay's largest tributary, the Susquehanna River, we analyzed the long-term seasonal trends of flow-normalized N, P, and SS load over the last two to three decades, both above and below the Lower Susquehanna River Reservoir System. Our results indicate that annual and decadal-scale trends of nutrient and sediment load generally followed similar patterns in all four seasons, implying that changes in watershed function and land use had similar impacts on nutrient and sediment load at all times of the year. Above the reservoir system, the combined loads from the Marietta and Conestoga Stations indicate general trends of N, P, and SS reduction in the Susquehanna River Basin, which can most likely be attributed to a suite of management actions on point, agricultural, and stormwater sources. In contrast, upward trends of SS and particulate-associated P and N were generally observed below the Conowingo Reservoir since the mid-1990s. Our analyses suggest that (1) the reservoirs' capacity to trap these materials has been diminishing over the past two to three decades, and especially so for SS and P since the mid-1990s, and that (2) the Conowingo Reservoir has already neared its sediment storage capacity. These changes in reservoir performance will pose significant new kinds of challenges to attainment of total maximum daily load goals for the Susquehanna River Basin, and particularly if also accompanied by increases in storm frequency and intensity due to climate change. Accordingly, the reservoir issue may need to be factored into the proper establishment of regulatory load requirements and the development of watershed implementation plans.

Characterizing the escape response of juvenile summer flounder Paralichthys dentatus to diel-cycling hypoxia

Swimming speed, angular correlation and expected displacement were measured in juvenile summer flounder Paralichthys dentatus acclimated to either oxygen saturation (c. 7.8 mg O(2) l(-1); saturation-acclimated fish) or diel-cycling hypoxia (cycling between 11.0 and 2.0 mg O(2) l(-1)) for 10 days and subsequently exposed to more severe diel-cycling hypoxia (cycling between 7.0 and 0.4 mg O(2) l(-1)). Saturation-acclimated P. dentatus exhibited an active response to declining dissolved oxygen (DO) by increasing swimming speed, angular correlation and expected displacement to peak levels at 1.4 mg O(2) l(-1) that were 3.5, 5.5 and 4.2 fold, respectively, greater than those at DO saturation. Diel-cycling hypoxia-acclimated P. dentatus also exhibited an active response to declining DO, although it was relatively less pronounced. Diel-cycling hypoxia-acclimated P. dentatus swimming speed, however, still doubled as DO decreased from 7.0 to 2.8 mg O(2) l(-1). Diel-cycling hypoxia-acclimated P. dentatus did not recover as well from low DO exposure as did saturation-acclimated fish. This was reflected in their relatively more random swimming (low angular correlation between successive moves) and poor maintenance of rank order between individuals during the recovery phase. Even saturation-acclimated P. dentatus did not resume swimming at speeds observed at saturation until DO was 4.2 mg O(2) l(-1). Paralichthys dentatus were very sensitive to decreasing DO, even at DO levels that were not lethal or growth limiting. This sensitivity and their poor recovery may preclude juvenile P. dentatus from using highly productive nursery habitats affected by diel-cycling hypoxia.

Ral activation promotes melanomagenesis

Up to one-third of human melanomas are characterized by an oncogenic mutation in the gene encoding the small guanosine triphosphatase (GTPase) NRAS. Ras proteins activate three primary classes of effectors, namely, Rafs, phosphatidyl-inositol-3-kinases (PI3Ks) and Ral guanine exchange factors (RalGEFs). In melanomas lacking NRAS mutations, the first two effectors can still be activated through an oncogenic BRAF mutation coupled with a loss of the PI3K negative regulator PTEN. This suggests that Ras effectors promote melanoma, regardless of whether they are activated by oncogenic NRas. The only major Ras effector pathway not explored for its role in melanoma is the RalGEF-Ral pathway, in which Ras activation of RalGEFs converts the small GTPases RalA and RalB to an active guanosine triphosphate-bound state. We report that RalA is activated in several human melanoma cancer cell lines harboring an oncogenic NRAS allele, an oncogenic BRAF allele or wild-type NRAS and BRAF alleles. Furthermore, short hairpin RNA (shRNA)-mediated knockdown of RalA, and to a lesser extent of RalB, variably inhibited the tumorigenic growth of melanoma cell lines having these three genotypes. Thus, as is the case for Raf and PI3 K signaling, Rals also contribute to melanoma tumorigenesis.