On Recent Large Antarctic Ozone Holes and Ozone Recovery Metrics

Bayesian modeling of HFC production pipeline suggests growth in unreported CFC by-product and feedstock production

Observationally-derived emissions of ozone depleting substances must be scrutinized to maintain the progress made by the Montreal Protocol in protecting the stratospheric ozone layer. Recent observations of three chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), CFC-113, CFC-114, and CFC-115, suggest that emissions of these compounds have not decreased as expected given global reporting of their production. These emissions have been associated with hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) production, which can require CFCs as feedstocks or generate CFCs as by-products, yet emissions from these pathways have not been rigorously quantified. Here, we develop a Bayesian framework to jointly infer emissions of CFC-113, CFC-114, and CFC-115 during HFC-134a and HFC-125 production. We estimate that feedstock emissions from HFC-134a production accounted for 90% (82-94%) and 65% (47-77%) of CFC-113 and CFC-114 emissions, respectively, from 2015-2019, while by-product emissions during HFC-125 production accounted for 81% (68-92%) of CFC-115 emissions. Our results suggest that unreported feedstock production in low- to middle-income countries may explain the unexpected emissions of CFC-113 and CFC-114, although uncertainties within chemical manufacturing processes call for further investigation and industry transparency. This work motivates tightened feedstock regulations and adds a reduction in CFC emissions to the benefits of the HFC phasedowns scheduled by the Kigali Amendment.

Ozone spectroscopy in the terahertz range from first high-resolution Synchrotron SOLEIL experiments combined with far-infrared measurements and ab initio intensity calculations

Ozone is one of the important molecules in terms of the impact on the atmospheric chemistry, climate changes, bio- and eco-systems and human health. It has a strong absorption in the microwave, terahertz and far-infrared spectral ranges where a large part of the Earth's outgoing longwave radiation to space is located. In this work, the observations, and analyses of the ozone high-resolution spectra in the THz range recorded using the Synchrotron light source of the SOLEIL CNRS equipment are reported for the first time. Thanks to the exceptional brightness of the Synchrotron radiation and to the signal/noise ratio, it was possible to observe many more ozone transitions of the cold rotational band and the hot ν2-ν2 band in the range 0.9-6 THz compared to the previous works. In addition, we have carried out new measurements and assignments for the ν2 band. The simultaneous fit of the rotational band GS-GS, the hot band ν2-ν2 and the FIR ν2 band yielded an overall weighted standard deviation of 0.68 for 13,466 line positions within the experimental accuracy. This includes all previously available MW (with the best uncertainty 0.1 - 10 kHz), FIR data and the original SOLEIL measurements that provided experimental accuracy of 0.00005 - 0.0001 cm-1 for the best lines. Significant deviations in new experimental spectra compared to available spectroscopic databases were evidenced, particularly for the line positions and energy levels at high J, Ka rotational quantum numbers that are the most pronounced in the 4.5 - 6 THz range. Accurate ab initio calculations of line intensities combined with empirically fitted line positions were used to create new linelists that permit theoretical modelling of the transmittance in a good agreement with the Synchrotron spectra in the entire range of observations for various pressures and optical paths. The region near 100 cm-1 and above appears to be more sensitive to the temperature conditions that should be considered in atmospheric observation for the currently operational and future ground based and space missions.

Potential drivers of the recent large Antarctic ozone holes

The past three years (2020-2022) have witnessed the re-emergence of large, long-lived ozone holes over Antarctica. Understanding ozone variability remains of high importance due to the major role Antarctic stratospheric ozone plays in climate variability across the Southern Hemisphere. Climate change has already incited new sources of ozone depletion, and the atmospheric abundance of several chlorofluorocarbons has recently been on the rise. In this work, we take a comprehensive look at the monthly and daily ozone changes at different altitudes and latitudes within the Antarctic ozone hole. Following indications of early-spring recovery, the October middle stratosphere is dominated by continued, significant ozone reduction since 2004, amounting to 26% loss in the core of the ozone hole. We link the declines in mid-spring Antarctic ozone to dynamical changes in mesospheric descent within the polar vortex, highlighting the importance of continued monitoring of the state of the ozone layer.

Interactive effects of changes in UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and feedbacks to the climate system

Terrestrial organisms and ecosystems are being exposed to new and rapidly changing combinations of solar UV radiation and other environmental factors because of ongoing changes in stratospheric ozone and climate. In this Quadrennial Assessment, we examine the interactive effects of changes in stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles in the context of the Montreal Protocol. We specifically assess effects on terrestrial organisms, agriculture and food supply, biodiversity, ecosystem services and feedbacks to the climate system. Emphasis is placed on the role of extreme climate events in altering the exposure to UV radiation of organisms and ecosystems and the potential effects on biodiversity. We also address the responses of plants to increased temporal variability in solar UV radiation, the interactive effects of UV radiation and other climate change factors (e.g. drought, temperature) on crops, and the role of UV radiation in driving the breakdown of organic matter from dead plant material (i.e. litter) and biocides (pesticides and herbicides). Our assessment indicates that UV radiation and climate interact in various ways to affect the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems, and that by protecting the ozone layer, the Montreal Protocol continues to play a vital role in maintaining healthy, diverse ecosystems on land that sustain life on Earth. Furthermore, the Montreal Protocol and its Kigali Amendment are mitigating some of the negative environmental consequences of climate change by limiting the emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting the carbon sequestration potential of vegetation and the terrestrial carbon pool.

The Antarctic ozone hole and the pattern effect on climate sensitivity

We provide a perspective on recent scientific literature that argues the reduction in climate sensitivity identified with relative cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean could be caused by the onset of the Antarctic ozone hole starting in about 1980. If this is true, the pattern effect could persist as long as the ozone hole, nearly 60 y. This would continue the reduction in warming associated with the pattern effect on climate sensitivity. In addition, increased probability of La Niña events would imply an increased chance of drought in the American Southwest and other impacts of cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific.

Since about 1980, the tropical Pacific has been anomalously cold, while the broader tropics have warmed. This has caused anomalous weather in midlatitudes as well as a reduction in the apparent sensitivity of the climate associated with enhanced low-cloud abundance over the cooler waters of the eastern tropical Pacific. Recent modeling work has shown that cooler temperatures over the Southern Ocean around Antarctica can lead to cooler temperatures over the eastern tropical Pacific. Here we suggest that surface wind anomalies associated with the Antarctic ozone hole can cause cooler temperatures over the Southern Ocean that extend into the tropics. We use the short-term variability of the Southern Annular Mode of zonal wind variability to show an association between surface zonal wind variations over the Southern Ocean, cooling over the Southern Ocean, and cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific. This suggests that the cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific may be associated with the onset of the Antarctic ozone hole.

NASA Satellite Measurements Show Global-Scale Reductions in Free Tropospheric Ozone in 2020 and Again in 2021 During COVID-19

NASA satellite measurements show that ozone reductions throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH) free troposphere reported for spring-summer 2020 during the COronaVIrus Disease 2019 pandemic have occurred again in spring-summer 2021. The satellite measurements show that tropospheric column ozone (TCO) (mostly representative of the free troposphere) for 20°N-60°N during spring-summer for both 2020 and 2021 averaged ∼3 Dobson Units (DU) (or ∼7%-8%) below normal. These ozone reductions in 2020 and 2021 were the lowest in the 2005-2021 record. We also include satellite measurements of tropospheric NO2 that exhibit reductions of ∼10%-20% in the NH in early spring-to-summer 2020 and 2021, suggesting that reduced pollution was the main cause for the low anomalies in NH TCO in 2020 and 2021. Reductions of TCO ∼2 DU (7%) are also measured in the Southern Hemisphere in austral summer but are not associated with reduced NO2.