A climate change signal in the tropical Pacific emerges from decadal variability

The eastern tropical Pacific has defied the global warming trend. There has been a debate about whether this observed trend is forced or natural (i.e., the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation; IPO) and this study shows that there are two patterns, one that oscillates along with the IPO, and one that is emerging since the mid-1950s, herein called the Pacific Climate Change (PCC) pattern. Here we show these have distinctive and distinguishable atmosphere-ocean signatures. While the IPO features a meridionally broad wedge-shaped SST pattern, the PCC pattern is marked by a narrow equatorial cooling band. These different SST patterns are related to distinct wind-driven ocean dynamical processes. We further show that the recent trends during the satellite era are a combination of IPO and PCC. Our findings set a path to distinguish climate change signals from internal variability through the underlying dynamics of each.

GISS-E2.1: Configurations and Climatology

This paper describes the GISS-E2.1 contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). This model version differs from the predecessor model (GISS-E2) chiefly due to parameterization improvements to the atmospheric and ocean model components, while keeping atmospheric resolution the same. Model skill when compared to modern era climatologies is significantly higher than in previous versions. Additionally, updates in forcings have a material impact on the results. In particular, there have been specific improvements in representations of modes of variability (such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and other modes in the Pacific) and significant improvements in the simulation of the climate of the Southern Oceans, including sea ice. The effective climate sensitivity to 2 × CO2 is slightly higher than previously at 2.7-3.1°C (depending on version) and is a result of lower CO2 radiative forcing and stronger positive feedbacks.

Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

The mystery of recent stratospheric temperature trends

A new data set of middle- and upper-stratospheric temperatures based on reprocessing of satellite radiances provides a view of stratospheric climate change during the period 1979-2005 that is strikingly different from that provided by earlier data sets. The new data call into question our understanding of observed stratospheric temperature trends and our ability to test simulations of the stratospheric response to emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances. Here we highlight the important issues raised by the new data and suggest how the climate science community can resolve them.

Surface temperatures of the Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic Ocean: implications for future climate

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval in the Earth's history to have experienced warming of the magnitude predicted for the second half of the twenty-first century and is, therefore, a possible analogue for future climate conditions. With continents basically in their current positions and atmospheric CO2 similar to early twenty-first century values, the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth remains elusive. Understanding the behaviour of the North Atlantic Ocean during the Mid-Pliocene is integral to evaluating future climate scenarios owing to its role in deep water formation and its sensitivity to climate change. Under the framework of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) sea surface reconstruction, we synthesize Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic studies by PRISM members and others, describing each region of the North Atlantic in terms of palaeoceanography. We then relate Mid-Pliocene sea surface conditions to expectations of future warming. The results of the data and climate model comparisons suggest that the North Atlantic is more sensitive to climate change than is suggested by climate model simulations, raising the concern that estimates of future climate change are conservative.

Multistability, phase diagrams, and intransitivity in the Lorenz-84 low-order atmospheric circulation model

We report phase diagrams detailing the intransitivity observed in the climate scenarios supported by a prototype atmospheric general circulation model, namely, the Lorenz-84 low-order model. So far, this model was known to have a pair of coexisting climates described originally by Lorenz. Bifurcation analysis allows the identification of a remarkably wide parameter region where up to four climates coexist simultaneously. In this region the dynamical behavior depends crucially on subtle and minute tuning of the model parameters. This strong parameter sensitivity makes the Lorenz-84 model a promising candidate of testing ground to validate techniques of assessing the sensitivity of low-order models to perturbations of parameters.

Observations of change in the Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean has been in a state of disequilibrium with its atmosphere and cryosphere during recent decades. Ocean station and drifting float observations have revealed rising temperatures in the upper 3000m. Salinity has declined in intermediate waters and more rapidly in the sparsely sampled high latitudes. Dissolved oxygen levels may also have decreased, but measurement accuracy is inconsistent. Sea ice area increased from 1979 to 1998, particularly in the Ross Sea, while a decline in ice extent since the early 1970s has been led by the Amundsen-Bellingshausen sector. Fresher waters with lower oxygen isotope content on the Pacific-Antarctic continental shelf are consistent with increased melting of continental ice. Newly forming bottom water has become colder and less salty downstream from that region, but generally warmer in the Weddell Sea. Many ice shelves have retreated or thinned, but others have grown and no trend is apparent in the large iceberg calving rate. Warming and isotherm shoaling within the polar gyres may result in part from changes in the Southern Annular Mode, which could facilitate deep-water access to the continental shelves. Sea-level rise over the past half century has a strong eustatic component and has recently accelerated. Observations over longer periods and with better spatial coverage are needed to better understand the processes causing these changes and their links to the Antarctic ice sheet.

Dynamic-chemical coupling of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere region

The importance of the interaction between chemistry and dynamics in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere for chemical species like ozone is investigated using two chemistry-climate models and a Lagrangian trajectory model. Air parcels from the upper troposphere, i.e. regions of lightning and aircraft emissions, are able to be transported into the lowermost stratosphere (LMS). Trajectory calculations suggest that the main transport pathway runs via the inter tropical convergence zone, across the tropical tropopause and then to higher latitudes, i.e. into the LMS. NOx from aircraft emissions at mid-latitudes are unlikely to perturb the LMS since they are washed-out while still in the troposphere. In contrast, NOx from tropical lightning has the chance to accumulate in the LMS. Because of the longer residence times of NOx in the LMS, compared to the upper troposphere, this excess NOx from lightning has the potential to form ozone in the LMS, which then is transported back to the troposphere at mid-latitudes. In the models, around 10% of the ozone concentration and 50% of the NOx concentration in the northern hemisphere LMS is produced by lightning NOx At least 5% of the ozone concentration and 35% the NOx concentration at 150 hPa at mid-latitudes originates from tropical lightning in the climate-chemistry simulations.

Trends of measured climate forcing agents

The growth rate of climate forcing by measured greenhouse gases peaked near 1980 at almost 5 W/m(2) per century. This growth rate has since declined to approximately 3 W/m(2) per century, largely because of cooperative international actions. We argue that trends can be reduced to the level needed for the moderate "alternative" climate scenario ( approximately 2 W/m(2) per century for the next 50 years) by means of concerted actions that have other benefits, but the forcing reductions are not automatic "co-benefits" of actions that slow CO(2) emissions. Current trends of climate forcings by aerosols remain very uncertain. Nevertheless, practical constraints on changes in emission levels suggest that global warming at a rate +0.15 +/- 0.05 degrees C per decade will occur over the next several decades.

Global warming in the twenty-first century: an alternative scenario

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO(2) greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH(4), and N(2)O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO(2) and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO(2) GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH(4) and O(3) precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO(2) GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO(2) emissions, this reduction of non-CO(2) GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Interpreting differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere

Estimated global-scale temperature trends at Earth's surface (as recorded by thermometers) and in the lower troposphere (as monitored by satellites) diverge by up to 0.14 degrees C per decade over the period 1979 to 1998. Accounting for differences in the spatial coverage of satellite and surface measurements reduces this differential, but still leaves a statistically significant residual of roughly 0.1 degrees C per decade. Natural internal climate variability alone, as simulated in three state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models, cannot completely explain this residual trend difference. A model forced by a combination of anthropogenic factors and volcanic aerosols yields surface-troposphere temperature trend differences closest to those observed.

Multidecadal changes in the vertical temperature structure of the tropical troposphere

Trends in global lower tropospheric temperature derived from satellite observations since 1979 show less warming than trends based on surface meteorological observations. Independent radiosonde observations of surface and tropospheric temperatures confirm that, since 1979, there has been greater warming at the surface than aloft in the tropics. Associated lapse-rate changes show a decrease in the static stability of the atmosphere, which exceeds unforced static stability variations in climate simulations with state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere models. The differential temperature trends and lapse-rate changes seen during the satellite era are not sustained back to 1960.

Aerosol retrievals over the ocean by use of channels 1 and 2 AVHRR data: sensitivity analysis and preliminary results

We outline the methodology of interpreting channels 1 and 2 Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) radiance data over the oceans and describe a detailed analysis of the sensitivity of monthly averages of retrieved aerosol parameters to the assumptions made in different retrieval algorithms. The analysis is based on using real AVHRR data and exploiting accurate numerical techniques for computing single and multiple scattering and spectral absorption of light in the vertically inhomogeneous atmosphere-ocean system. We show that two-channel algorithms can be expected to provide significantly more accurate and less biased retrievals of the aerosol optical thickness than one-channel algorithms and that imperfect cloud screening and calibration uncertainties are by far the largest sources of errors in the retrieved aerosol parameters. Both underestimating and overestimating aerosol absorption as well as the potentially strong variability of the real part of the aerosol refractive index may lead to regional and/or seasonal biases in optical-thickness retrievals. The Angström exponent appears to be the aerosol size characteristic that is least sensitive to the choice of aerosol model and should be retrieved along with optical thickness as the second aerosol parameter.

Complexity and climate

The climate that we experience results from both ordered forcing and chaotic behavior; the result is a system with characteristics of each. In forecasting prospective climate changes for the next century, the focus has been on the ordered system's responses to anthropogenic forcing. The chaotic component may be much harder to predict, but at this point it is not known how important it will be.