Dependence of column ozone on future ODSs and GHGs in the variability of 500-ensemble members

State-of-the-art chemistry-climate models (CCMs) have indicated that a future decrease in ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) combined with an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) would increase the column ozone amount in most regions except the tropics and Antarctic. However, large Arctic ozone losses have occurred at a frequency of approximately once per decade since the 1990s (1997, 2011 and 2020), despite the ODS concentration peaking in the mid-1990s. To understand this, CCMs were used to conduct 24 experiments with ODS and GHG concentrations set based on predicted values for future years; each experiment consisted of 500-member ensembles. The 50 ensemble members with the lowest column ozone in the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere showed a clear ODS dependence associated with low temperatures and a strong westerly zonal mean zonal wind. Even with high GHG concentrations, several ensemble members showed extremely low spring column ozone in the Arctic when ODS concentration remained above the 1980-1985 level. Hence, ODS concentrations should be reduced to avoid large ozone losses in the presence of a stable Arctic polar vortex. The average of the lowest 50 members indicates that GHG increase towards the end of the twenty-first century will not cause worse Arctic ozone depletion.

Modeling the Effect of Potential Nitric Acid Removal During Convective Injection of Water Vapor Over the Central United States on the Chemical Composition of the Lower Stratosphere

Tropopause-penetrating convection is a frequent seasonal feature of the Central United States climate. This convection presents the potential for consistent transport of water vapor into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) through the lofting of ice, which then sublimates. Water vapor enhancements associated with convective ice lofting have been observed in both in situ and satellite measurements. These water vapor enhancements can increase the probability of sulfate aerosol-catalyzed heterogeneous reactions that convert reservoir chlorine (HCl and ClONO2) to free radical chlorine (Cl and ClO) that leads to catalytic ozone loss. In addition to water vapor transport, lofted ice may also scavenge nitric acid and further impact the chlorine activation chemistry of the UTLS. We present a photochemical model that resolves the vertical chemical structure of the UTLS to explore the effect of water vapor enhancements and potential additional nitric acid removal. The model is used to define the response of stratospheric column ozone to the range of convective water vapor transported and the temperature variability of the lower stratosphere currently observed over the Central United States in conjunction with potential nitric acid removal and to scenarios of elevated sulfate aerosol surface area density representative of possible future volcanic eruptions or solar radiation management. We find that the effect of HNO3 removal is dependent on the magnitude of nitric acid removal and has the greatest potential to increase chlorine activation and ozone loss under UTLS conditions that weakly favor the chlorine activation heterogeneous reactions by reducing NOx sources.

Dynamical variability in the modelling of chemistry–climate interactions

We have used a version of the Met Office's climate model, into which we have introduced schemes for atmospheric chemistry, to study chemistry-dynamics-climate interactions. We have considered the variability of the stratospheric polar vortex, whose behaviour influences stratospheric ozone loss and will affect ozone recovery. In particular, we analyse the dynamical control of high latitude ozone in a model version which includes an assimilation of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), demonstrating the stability of the linear relation between vortex strength and high latitude ozone. We discuss the effect of interactive model ozone on polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) area/volume and winter-spring stratospheric ozone loss in the northern hemisphere. In general we find larger polar ozone losses calculated in those model integrations in which modelled ozone is used interactively in the radiation scheme, even though we underestimate the slope of the ozone loss per PSC volume relation derived from observations. We have also looked at the influence of changing stratosphere-to-troposphere exchange on the tropospheric oxidizing capacity and, in particular, have considered the variability of tropospheric composition under different climate regimes (El Niño/La Niña, etc.). Focusing on the UT/LS, we show the response of ozone to El Niño in two different model set-ups (tropospheric/ stratospheric). In the stratospheric model set-up we find a distinct signal in the lower tropical stratosphere, which shows an anti-correlation between the Niño 3 index and the ozone column amount. In contrast ozone generally increases in the upper troposphere of the tropospheric model set-up after an El Niño. Understanding future trends in stratospheric ozone and tropospheric oxidizing capacity requires an understanding of natural variability, which we explore here.

Impact of ozone mini-holes on the heterogeneous destruction of stratospheric ozone

A comprehensive study of ozone mini-holes over the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres is presented, based on model simulations with the coupled climate-chemistry model ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM representing atmospheric conditions in 1960, 1980, 1990 and 2015. Ozone mini-holes are synoptic-scale regions of strongly reduced total ozone, directly associated with tropospheric weather systems. Mini-holes are supposed to have chemical and dynamical impacts on ozone levels. Since ozone levels over northern mid-latitudes show a negative trend of approximately -4%/decade and since it exists a negative correlation between total column ozone and erythemally active solar UV-radiation reaching the surface it is important to understand and assess the processes leading to the observed ozone decline. The simulated mini-hole events are validated with a mini-hole climatology based on daily ozone measurements with the TOMS (total ozone mapping spectrometer) instrument on the satellite Nimbus-7 between 1979 and 1993. Furthermore, possible trends in the event frequency and intensity over the simulation period are assessed. In the northern hemisphere the number of mini-hole events in early winter decreases between 1960 and 1990 and increases towards 2015. In the southern hemisphere a positive trend in mini-hole event frequency is detected between 1960 and 2015 in spring associated with the increasing Antarctic Ozone Hole. Finally, the impact of mini-holes on the stratospheric heterogeneous ozone chemistry is investigated. For this purpose, a computer-based detection routine for mini-holes was developed for the use in ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM. This method prevents polar stratospheric cloud formation and therefore heterogeneous ozone depletion inside mini-holes. Heterogeneous processes inside mini-holes amount to one third of heterogeneous ozone destruction in general over northern mid- and high-latitudes during winter (January-April) in the simulation.

Quantifying denitrification and its effect on ozone recovery

Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite observations indicate that extensive denitrification without significant dehydration currently occurs only in the Antarctic during mid to late June. The fact that denitrification occurs in a relatively warm month in the Antarctic raises concern about the likelihood of its occurrence and associated effects on ozone recovery in a colder and possibly more humid future Arctic lower stratosphere. Polar stratospheric cloud lifetimes required for Arctic denitrification to occur in the future are presented and contrasted against the current Antarctic cloud lifetimes. Model calculations show that widespread severe denitrification could enhance future Arctic ozone loss by up to 30%.