Coupled Stratospheric Chemistry–Meteorology Data Assimilation. Part I: Physical Background and Coupled Modeling Aspects

A coupled stratospheric chemistry–meteorology model was developed by combining the Canadian operational weather prediction model Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) with a comprehensive stratospheric photochemistry model from the Belgian Assimilation System for Chemical ObsErvations (BASCOE). The coupled model was called GEM-BACH for GEM-Belgian Atmospheric CHemistry. The coupling was made across a chemical interface that preserves time-splitting while being modular, allowing GEM to run with or without chemistry. An evaluation of the coupling was performed by comparing the coupled model, refreshed by meteorological analyses every 6 h, against the standard offline chemical transport model (CTM) approach. Results show that the dynamical meteorological consistency between meteorological analysis times far outweighs the error created by the jump resulting from the meteorological analysis increments at regular time intervals, irrespective of whether a 3D-Var or 4D-Var meteorological analysis is used. Arguments in favor of using the same horizontal resolution for chemistry, meteorology, and meteorological and chemical analysis increments are also presented. GEM-BACH forecasts refreshed by meteorological analyses every 6 h were compared against independent measurements of temperature, long-lived species, ozone and water vapor. The comparison showed a relatively good agreement throughout the stratosphere except for an upper-level warm temperature bias and an ozone deficit of nearly 15%. In particular, the coupled model simulation during an ozone hole event gives better ozone concentrations than a 4D-Var chemical assimilation at a lower resolution.

A Bayesian ensemble approach to combine PM2.5 estimates from statistical models using satellite imagery and numerical model simulation

Ambient fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM_2.5) has been linked to various adverse health outcomes. PM_2.5 arises from both natural and anthropogenic sources, and PM_2.5 concentrations can vary over space and time. However, the sparsity of existing air quality monitors greatly restricts the spatial-temporal coverage of PM_2.5 measurements, potentially limiting the accuracy of PM_2.5-related health studies. Various methods exist to address these limitations by supplementing air quality monitoring measurements with additional data. We develop a method to combine PM_2.5 estimated from satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) and chemical transport model (CTM) simulations using statistical models. While most previous methods utilize AOD or CTM separately, we aim to leverage advantages offered by both data sources in terms of resolution and coverage using Bayesian ensemble averaging. Our approach differs from previous ensemble approaches in its ability to not only incorporate uncertainties in PM_2.5 estimates from individual models but also to provide uncertainties for the resulting ensemble estimates. In an application of estimating daily PM_2.5 in the Southeastern US, the ensemble approach outperforms previously developed spatial-temporal statistical models that use either AOD or bias-corrected CTM simulations in cross-validation (CV) analyses. More specifically, in spatially clustered CV experiments, the ensemble approach reduced the AOD-only and CTM-only model's root mean squared error (RMSE) by at least 13%. Similar improvements were seen in R². The enhanced prediction performance that the ensemble technique provides at fine-scale spatial resolution, as well as the availability of prediction uncertainty, can be further used in health effect analyses of air pollution exposure.

Quantifying the ozone and ultraviolet benefits already achieved by the Montreal Protocol

Chlorine- and bromine-containing ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are controlled by the 1987 Montreal Protocol. In consequence, atmospheric equivalent chlorine peaked in 1993 and has been declining slowly since then. Consistent with this, models project a gradual increase in stratospheric ozone with the Antarctic ozone hole expected to disappear by ∼2050. However, we show that by 2013 the Montreal Protocol had already achieved significant benefits for the ozone layer. Using a 3D atmospheric chemistry transport model, we demonstrate that much larger ozone depletion than observed has been avoided by the protocol, with beneficial impacts on surface ultraviolet. A deep Arctic ozone hole, with column values <120 DU, would have occurred given meteorological conditions in 2011. The Antarctic ozone hole would have grown in size by 40% by 2013, with enhanced loss at subpolar latitudes. The decline over northern hemisphere middle latitudes would have continued, more than doubling to ∼15% by 2013.

Ozone-depleting substances have been controlled by the 1987 Montreal Protocol, ensuring atmospheric concentrations are now in decline. Here, the authors use a 3D model and suggest that these controls have already had significant benefits, with much larger ozone depletion than previously thought avoided by the protocol.

Revisiting the hemispheric asymmetry in midlatitude ozone changes following the Mount Pinatubo eruption: A 3-D model study

Following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo, satellite and in situ measurements showed a large enhancement in stratospheric aerosol in both hemispheres, but significant midlatitude column O₃ depletion was observed only in the north. We use a three-dimensional chemical transport model to determine the mechanisms behind this hemispheric asymmetry. The model, forced by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim reanalyses and updated aerosol surface area density, successfully simulates observed large column NO₂ decreases and the different extents of ozone depletion in the two hemispheres. The chemical ozone loss is similar in the Northern (NH) and Southern Hemispheres (SH), but the contrasting role of dynamics increases the depletion in the NH and decreases it in the SH. The relevant SH dynamics are not captured as well by earlier ERA-40 reanalyses. Overall, the smaller SH column O₃ depletion can be attributed to dynamical variability and smaller SH background lower stratosphere O₃ concentrations.

Measurements of tropospheric NO2 in Romania using a zenith-sky mobile DOAS system and comparisons with satellite observations

In this paper we present a new method for retrieving tropospheric NO₂ Vertical Column Density (VCD) from zenith-sky Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) measurements using mobile observations. This method was used during three days in the summer of 2011 in Romania, being to our knowledge the first mobile DOAS measurements peformed in this country. The measurements were carried out over large and different areas using a mobile DOAS system installed in a car. We present here a step-by-step retrieval of tropospheric VCD using complementary observations from ground and space which take into account the stratospheric contribution, which is a step forward compared to other similar studies. The detailed error budget indicates that the typical uncertainty on the retrieved NO₂tropospheric VCD is less than 25%. The resulting ground-based data set is compared to satellite measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2). For instance, on 18 July 2011, in an industrial area located at 47.03°N, 22.45°E, GOME-2 observes a tropospheric VCD value of (3.4 ± 1.9) × 10¹⁵ molec./cm², while average mobile measurements in the same area give a value of (3.4 ± 0.7) × 10¹⁵ molec./cm². On 22 August 2011, around Ploiesti city (44.99°N, 26.1°E), the tropospheric VCD observed by satellites is (3.3 ± 1.9) × 10¹⁵ molec./cm² (GOME-2) and (3.2 ± 3.2) × 10¹⁵ molec./cm² (OMI), while average mobile measurements give (3.8 ± 0.8) × 10¹⁵ molec./cm². Average ground measurements over “clean areas”, on 18 July 2011, give (2.5 ± 0.6) × 10¹⁵ molec./cm² while the satellite observes a value of (1.8 ± 1.3) × 10¹⁵ molec./cm².

Constraining the chlorine monoxide (ClO)/chlorine peroxide (ClOOCl) equilibrium constant from Aura Microwave Limb Sounder measurements of nighttime ClO

The primary ozone loss process in the cold polar lower stratosphere hinges on chlorine monoxide (ClO) and one of its dimers, chlorine peroxide (ClOOCl). Recently, analyses of atmospheric observations have suggested that the equilibrium constant, K(eq), governing the balance between ClOOCl formation and thermal decomposition in darkness is lower than that in the current evaluation of kinetics data. Measurements of ClO at night, when ClOOCl is unaffected by photolysis, provide a useful means of testing quantitative understanding of the ClO/ClOOCl relationship. Here we analyze nighttime ClO measurements from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) to infer an expression for K(eq). Although the observed temperature dependence of the nighttime ClO is in line with the theoretical ClO/ClOOCl equilibrium relationship, none of the previously published expressions for K(eq) consistently produces ClO abundances that match the MLS observations well under all conditions. Employing a standard expression for K(eq), A x exp(B/T), we constrain the parameter A to currently recommended values and estimate B using a nonlinear weighted least squares analysis of nighttime MLS ClO data. ClO measurements at multiple pressure levels throughout the periods of peak chlorine activation in three Arctic and four Antarctic winters are used to estimate B. Our derived B leads to values of K(eq) that are approximately 1.4 times smaller at stratospherically relevant temperatures than currently recommended, consistent with earlier studies. Our results are in better agreement with the newly updated (2009) kinetics evaluation than with the previous (2006) recommendation.

Increase in tropospheric nitrogen dioxide over China observed from space

Emissions from fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning reduce local air quality and affect global tropospheric chemistry. Nitrogen oxides are emitted by all combustion processes and play a key part in the photochemically induced catalytic production of ozone, which results in summer smog and has increased levels of tropospheric ozone globally. Release of nitrogen oxide also results in nitric acid deposition, and--at least locally--increases radiative forcing effects due to the absorption of downward propagating visible light. Nitrogen oxide concentrations in many industrialized countries are expected to decrease, but rapid economic development has the potential to increase significantly the emissions of nitrogen oxides in parts of Asia. Here we present the tropospheric column amounts of nitrogen dioxide retrieved from two satellite instruments GOME and SCIAMACHY over the years 1996-2004. We find substantial reductions in nitrogen dioxide concentrations over some areas of Europe and the USA, but a highly significant increase of about 50 per cent-with an accelerating trend in annual growth rate-over the industrial areas of China, more than recent bottom-up inventories suggest.

MIPAS-ENVISAT limb-sounding measurements: trade-off study for improvement of horizontal resolution

The Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) is a limb-scanning spectrometer that has operated onboard the Environmental Satellite since the end of March 2002. Common features of limb-scanning experiments are both high vertical resolution and poor horizontal resolution. We exploit the two-dimensional geo-fit retrieval approach [Appl. Opt. 40, 1872-1875 (2001)] to investigate the possibility of improving the horizontal resolution of MIPAS measurements. Two different strategies are considered for this purpose, one exploiting the possibility (offered by the geo-fit analysis method) for an arbitrary definition of the retrieval grid, the other based on the possibility of saving measurement time by degrading the spectral resolution of the interferometer. The performances of the two strategies are compared in terms of the trade-off between the attained horizontal resolution and the retrieval precision. We find that for ozone it is possible to improve by a factor of 2 the horizontal resolution, which in the nominal measurement plan is approximately 530 km. This improvement corresponds to a degradation of the retrieval precision, which on average varies from a factor of 1.4 to 2.5, depending on the adopted spectral resolution.

Retrieval of profile information from airborne multiaxis UV-visible skylight absorption measurements

A recent development in ground-based remote sensing of atmospheric constituents by UV-visible absorption measurements of scattered light is the simultaneous use of several horizon viewing directions in addition to the traditional zenith-sky pointing. The different light paths through the atmosphere enable the vertical distribution of some atmospheric absorbers, such as NO2, BrO, or O3, to be retrieved. This approach has recently been implemented on an airborne platform. This novel instrument, the airborne multiaxis differential optical absorption spectrometer (AMAXDOAS), has been flown for the first time. In this study, the amount of profile information that can be retrieved from such measurements is investigated for the trace gas NO2. Sensitivity studies on synthetic data are performed for a variety of representative measurement conditions including two wavelengths, one in the UV and one in the visible, two different surface spectral reflectances, various lines of sight (LOSs), and for two different flight altitudes. The results demonstrate that the AMAXDOAS measurements contain useful profile information, mainly at flight altitude and below the aircraft. Depending on wavelength and LOS used, the vertical resolution of the retrieved profiles is as good as 2 km near flight altitude. Above 14 km the profile information content of AMAXDOAS measurements is sparse. Airborne multiaxis measurements are thus a promising tool for atmospheric studies in the troposphere and the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere region.