Contaminants in the Canadian Arctic: 5 years of progress in understanding sources, occurrence and pathways

Recent studies of contaminants under the Canadian Northern Contaminants Program (NCP) have substantially enhanced our understanding of the pathways by which contaminants enter Canada's Arctic and move through terrestrial and marine ecosystems there. Building on a previous review (Barrie et al., Arctic contaminants: sources, occurrence and pathways. Sci Total Environ 1992:1-74), we highlight new knowledge developed under the NCP on the sources, occurrence and pathways of contaminants (organochlorines, Hg, Pb and Cd, PAHs, artificial radionuclides). Starting from the global scale, we examine emission histories and sources for selected contaminants focussing especially on the organochlorines. Physical and chemical properties, transport processes in the environment (e.g. winds, currents, partitioning), and models are then used to identify, understand and illustrate the connection between the contaminant sources in industrial and agricultural regions to the south and the eventual arrival of contaminants in remote regions of the Arctic. Within the Arctic, we examine how contaminants impinge on marine and terrestrial pathways and how they are subsequently either removed to sinks or remain where they can enter the biosphere. As a way to focus this synthesis on key concerns of northern residents, a number of special topics are examined including: a mass balance for HCH and toxaphene (CHBs) in the Arctic Ocean; a comparison of PCB sources within Canada's Arctic (Dew Line Sites) with PCBs imported through long-range transport; an evaluation of concerns posed by three priority metals--Hg, Pb and Cd; an evaluation of the risks from artificial radionuclides in the ocean; a review of what is known about new-generation pesticides that are replacing the organochlorines; and a comparison of natural vs. anthropogenic sources of PAH in the Arctic. The research and syntheses provide compelling evidence for close connectivity between the global emission of contaminants from industrial and agricultural activities and the Arctic. For semi-volatile compounds that partition strongly into cold water (e.g. HCH) we have seen an inevitable loading of Arctic aquatic reservoirs. Drastic HCH emission reductions have been rapidly followed by reduced atmospheric burdens with the result that the major reservoir and transport agent has become the ocean. In the Arctic, it will take decades for the upper ocean to clear itself of HCH. For compounds that partition strongly onto particles, and for which the soil reservoir is most important (e.g. PCBs), we have seen a delay in their arrival in the Arctic and some fractionation toward more volatile compounds (e.g. lower-chlorinated PCBs). Despite banning the production of PCB in the 1970s, and despite decreases of PCBs in environmental compartments in temperate regions, the Arctic presently shows little evidence of reduced PCB loadings. We anticipate a delay in PCB reductions in the Arctic and environmental lifetimes measured in decades. Although artificial radionuclides have caused great concern due to their direct disposal on Russian Shelves, they are found to pose little threat to Canadian waters and, indeed, much of the radionuclide inventory can be explained as remnant global fallout, which was sharply curtailed in the 1960s, and waste emissions released under license by the European reprocessing plants. Although Cd poses a human dietary concern both for terrestrial and marine mammals, we find little evidence that Cd in marine systems has been impacted by human activities. There is evidence of contaminant Pb in the Arctic, but loadings appear presently to be decreasing due to source controls (e.g. removal of Pb from gasoline) in Europe and North America. Of the metals, Hg provokes the greatest concern; loadings appear to be increasing in the Arctic due to global human activities, but such loadings are not evenly distributed nor are the pathways by which they enter and move within the Arctic well understood.

Global Warming and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent

Surface and satellite-based observations show a decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent during the past 46 years. A comparison of these trends to control and transient integrations (forced by observed greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Hadley Centre climate models reveals that the observed decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent agrees with the transient simulations, and both trends are much larger than would be expected from natural climate variations. From long-term control runs of climate models, it was found that the probability of the observed trends resulting from natural climate variability, assuming that the models' natural variability is similar to that found in nature, is less than 2 percent for the 1978-98 sea ice trends and less than 0.1 percent for the 1953-98 sea ice trends. Both models used here project continued decreases in sea ice thickness and extent throughout the next century.

Arctic sea ice extent and thickness

Current knowledge on Arctic sea ice extent and thickness variability is reviewed, and we examine whether measurements to date provide evidence for the impact of climate change. The total Arctic ice extent has shown a small but significant reduction of (2.1 ± 0.9)% during the period 1978-87, after apparently increasing from a lower level in the early 1970s. However, open water within the pack ice limit has also diminished, so that the reduction of sea ice area is only (1.8 ± 1.2)%. This stability conceals large interannual variations and trends in individual regions of the Arctic Ocean and sub-Arctic seas, which are out of phase with one another and so have little net impact on the overall hemispheric ice extent. The maximum annual global extent (occurring during the Antarctic winter) shows a more significant decrease of 5% during 1972-87. Ice thickness distribution has been measured by submarine sonar profiling, moored upward sonars, airborne laser prohlometry, airborne electromagnetic techniques and drilling. Promising new techniques include: sonar mounted on an AUV or neutrally buoyant float; acoustic tomography or thermometry; and inference from a combination of microwave sensors. In relation to climate change, the most useful measurement has been repeated submarine sonar profiling under identical parts of the Arctic, which offers some evidence of a decline in mean ice thickness in the 1980s compared to the 1970s. The link between mean ice thickness and climatic warming is complex because of the effects of dynamics and deformation. Only fast ice responds primarily to air temperature changes and one can predict thinning of fast ice and extension of the open water season in fast ice areas. Another region of increasingly mild ice conditions is the central Greenland Sea where winter thermohaline convection is triggered by cyclic growth and melt of local young ice. In recent years convection to the bottom has slowed or ceased, possibly related to moderation of ice conditions.