Quantitative bias analysis of the association of type 2 diabetes mellitus with 2,2',4,4',5,5'-hexachlorobiphenyl (PCB-153)

An association between serum concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as 2,2',4,4',5,5'-hexachlorobiphenyl (PCB-153), and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) has been reported. Conditional on body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC), a higher serum PCB-153 concentration may be a marker of T2DM risk because it reflects other aspects of obesity that are related to T2DM risk and to PCB-153 clearance. To estimate the amount of residual confounding by other aspects of obesity, we performed a quantitative bias analysis on the results of a specific study. A physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was developed to predict serum levels of PCB-153 for a simulated population. T2DM status was assigned to simulated subjects based on age, sex, BMI, WC, and visceral adipose tissue mass. The distributions of age, BMI, WC, and T2DM prevalence of the simulated population were tailored to closely match the target population. Analysis of the simulated data showed that a small part of the observed association appeared to be due to residual confounding. For example, the predicted odds ratio of T2DM that would have been obtained had the results been adjusted for visceral adipose tissue mass, for the ≥90th percentile of PCB-153 serum concentration, was 6.60 (95% CI 2.46-17.74), compared with an observed odds ratio of 7.13 (95% CI 2.65-19.13). Our results predict that the association between PCB-153 and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus would not be substantially changed by additional adjustment for visceral adipose tissue mass in epidemiologic analyses. Confirmation of these predictions with longitudinal data would be reassuring.

Neutral polyfluoroalkyl substances in the global atmosphere

Concentrations of neutral per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (nPFAS) in the atmosphere are of interest because nPFAS are highly mobile percursors for perfluoroalkyl acids. Two calibration studies in Ontario, Canada and Costa Rica established the feasibility of using XAD 2-resin based passive air samplers (XAD-PAS) to reliably determine long term average air concentrations of nPFAS under temperate and tropical climatic conditions. The temporal and spatial distribution of nPFAS was investigated by analyzing XAD-PAS deployed for one year at between 17 and 46 sites on six continents between 2006 and 2011 as part of the Global Atmospheric Passive Sampling (GAPS) study. Higher levels of fluorotelomer alcohols (FTOHs) compared to fluorinated sulfonamides (FOSAs), and fluorinated sulfonamidoethanols (FOSEs) were observed at all sites. Urban sites had the highest levels of nPFAS compared to rural and remote sites, which is also apparent in a positive correlation of nPFAS levels with the proximity of a sampling site to areas of high population density. Levels of FOSAs and FOSEs tended to decrease during the six years of measurements, whereas an initial decline in the concentrations of FTOHs from 2006 to 2008 did not continue in 2009 to 2011. A comparison of nPFAS levels measured in national XAD-PAS networks in Costa Rica and Botswana revealed that the GAPS sites in Tapanti and the Kalahari are representative of the more remote regions in those countries. XAD-PAS derived absolute nPFAS levels at GAPS sites are lower than those measured using another PAS, but are within the range of levels measured with active air samplers. Agreement of relative nPFAS composition is better between samplers, suggesting that the discrepancy is due to uncertain sampling rates.

Estimating the influence of forests on the overall fate of semivolatile organic compounds using a multimedia fate model

On the basis of recently reported measurements of semivolatile organic compound (SOC) uptake in forest canopies, simple expressions are derived that allow the inclusion of a canopy compartment into existing non-steady-state multimedia fate models based on the fugacity approach. One such model is used to assess how the inclusion of the canopy compartment in the model affects the calculated overall behavior of SOCs with specific physical--chemical properties. The primary effect of the forest is an increase in the net atmospheric deposition to the terrestrial environment, reducing atmospheric concentrations and accordingly the extent of deposition to the agricultural and aquatic environments. This effect was most pronounced for chemicals with log KOA around 9-10 and log KAW -2 to -3; their average air concentrations during the growing season decreased by a factor of 5 when the canopy compartment was included. Concentration levels in virtually all compartments are decreased at the expense of increased concentrations in the forest soil. The effect of the forest lies not in a large capacity for these chemicals but in the efficiency of pumping the chemicals from the atmosphere to the forest soil, a storage reservoir with high capacity from which the chemicals can return to the atmosphere only with difficulty. Because of seasonal variability of canopy size and atmospheric stability, uptake into forests is higher during spring and summer than in winter. The model suggests that this may dampen temperature-driven seasonal fluctuations of air concentrations and in regions with large deciduous forests may lead to a temporary, yet notable dip in air concentrations during leaf development in spring. A sensitivity analysis revealed a strong effect of forest cover, forest composition, and degradation half-lives. A high degradation loss on the plant surface has the effect of preventing the saturation of the small plant reservoir and can cause very significant reductions in atmospheric concentrations of those SOCs for which uptake in the canopy is limited by the size of the reservoir.

Contaminants in the Canadian Arctic: 5 years of progress in understanding sources, occurrence and pathways

Recent studies of contaminants under the Canadian Northern Contaminants Program (NCP) have substantially enhanced our understanding of the pathways by which contaminants enter Canada's Arctic and move through terrestrial and marine ecosystems there. Building on a previous review (Barrie et al., Arctic contaminants: sources, occurrence and pathways. Sci Total Environ 1992:1-74), we highlight new knowledge developed under the NCP on the sources, occurrence and pathways of contaminants (organochlorines, Hg, Pb and Cd, PAHs, artificial radionuclides). Starting from the global scale, we examine emission histories and sources for selected contaminants focussing especially on the organochlorines. Physical and chemical properties, transport processes in the environment (e.g. winds, currents, partitioning), and models are then used to identify, understand and illustrate the connection between the contaminant sources in industrial and agricultural regions to the south and the eventual arrival of contaminants in remote regions of the Arctic. Within the Arctic, we examine how contaminants impinge on marine and terrestrial pathways and how they are subsequently either removed to sinks or remain where they can enter the biosphere. As a way to focus this synthesis on key concerns of northern residents, a number of special topics are examined including: a mass balance for HCH and toxaphene (CHBs) in the Arctic Ocean; a comparison of PCB sources within Canada's Arctic (Dew Line Sites) with PCBs imported through long-range transport; an evaluation of concerns posed by three priority metals--Hg, Pb and Cd; an evaluation of the risks from artificial radionuclides in the ocean; a review of what is known about new-generation pesticides that are replacing the organochlorines; and a comparison of natural vs. anthropogenic sources of PAH in the Arctic. The research and syntheses provide compelling evidence for close connectivity between the global emission of contaminants from industrial and agricultural activities and the Arctic. For semi-volatile compounds that partition strongly into cold water (e.g. HCH) we have seen an inevitable loading of Arctic aquatic reservoirs. Drastic HCH emission reductions have been rapidly followed by reduced atmospheric burdens with the result that the major reservoir and transport agent has become the ocean. In the Arctic, it will take decades for the upper ocean to clear itself of HCH. For compounds that partition strongly onto particles, and for which the soil reservoir is most important (e.g. PCBs), we have seen a delay in their arrival in the Arctic and some fractionation toward more volatile compounds (e.g. lower-chlorinated PCBs). Despite banning the production of PCB in the 1970s, and despite decreases of PCBs in environmental compartments in temperate regions, the Arctic presently shows little evidence of reduced PCB loadings. We anticipate a delay in PCB reductions in the Arctic and environmental lifetimes measured in decades. Although artificial radionuclides have caused great concern due to their direct disposal on Russian Shelves, they are found to pose little threat to Canadian waters and, indeed, much of the radionuclide inventory can be explained as remnant global fallout, which was sharply curtailed in the 1960s, and waste emissions released under license by the European reprocessing plants. Although Cd poses a human dietary concern both for terrestrial and marine mammals, we find little evidence that Cd in marine systems has been impacted by human activities. There is evidence of contaminant Pb in the Arctic, but loadings appear presently to be decreasing due to source controls (e.g. removal of Pb from gasoline) in Europe and North America. Of the metals, Hg provokes the greatest concern; loadings appear to be increasing in the Arctic due to global human activities, but such loadings are not evenly distributed nor are the pathways by which they enter and move within the Arctic well understood.

The evolution of mass balance models of persistent organic pollutant fate in the environment

Current approaches to modelling the fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the environment have evolved in response to four dominant characteristics of these substances; namely: (1) the presence of POPs in virtually all environmental phases and the ease with which they move from one to the other requires multi-compartmental modelling. Describing transport across phase boundaries becomes as, or even more, important as quantifying transport within the phases; (2) POPs may persist in the environment for many decades. For chemicals that 'have time', concepts such as equilibrium partitioning and steady-state become more important than for short-lived substances whose fate is more controlled by the rates of transformation; (3) measuring POPs is difficult and expensive and observed concentrations of POPs are not available in high spatial or temporal resolution. Consequently, high resolution tends not to be a high priority in POP models; and (4) detrimental effects of POPs often manifest themselves in top predators, which has led to a focus on modelling biotic uptake and transfer within food chains. The task of building a POPs model is viewed as combining the four 'building blocks' of partitioning, transport, transformation and source data with the help of the law of the conservation of mass. Process models, evaluative models, models of real local, regional and global fate, as well as biological uptake models are presented and references to numerous examples are provided. An attempt is made to forecast future directions in the field of POPs modelling. It is expected that modelling techniques that do not rely on quantitative emission estimates as well as approaches that take into account spatial, temporal and climatic variability as well as parameter uncertainty will increase in importance. Finally, the relationship between modelling POPs and models of other pollutant issues is addressed, as are potential interactions between POPs and pollutant issues such as eutrophication, acidification and global climate change.

On the origin of elevated levels of persistent chemicals in the environment

In general, contamination levels tend to be highest close to sources of a chemical and decline with increasing distance as a result of dilution, dispersion and degradation. However, contrary to this, circumstances have been described when contamination levels are higher further away from sources than at the sources themselves. Examples are elevated levels of persistent, hydrophobic, organic chemicals in the Arctic, in mountain regions and in forest soils. In order to address the questions of why and when such an inversion of environmental levels is occurring, this paper seeks to identify, name and categorise principles of general validity leading to such behaviour. By compiling and analysing various causes of elevated contamination levels in the environment, three main categories became apparent, 1. equilibrium partitioning effects, 2. effects resulting from changes in phase composition, volume or temperature, and 3. dynamic or kinetic effects. These principles are illustrated with several examples. The case can be made that understanding, quantifying and predicting these causes could provide a general conceptual framework for studying the fate of chemicals in the environment.

Peer reviewed: tracking the distribution of persistent organic pollutants

Control strategies for these contaminants will require a better understanding of how they move around the globe.

Spatial variability in compartmental fate modelling : Linking fugacity models and GIS

A new approach is presented which is designed to address the spatial heterogeneity of the environment in compartmental mass balance models of chemical fate in the environment. It rests on the assumption of chemical equilibration within one phase despite prevailing environmental heterogeneity. Composite D- and Z-values are derived from sub-unit specific environmental parameters and are used to solve mass balance equations which can be adopted essentially unchanged from existing compartmental fugacity models. With the resulting common fugacity value for each compartment, sub-unit specific concentrations and process rates can be calculated. The approach is illustrated using the QWASI lake model to calculate the fate of hexachlorobenzene in a hypothetical lake sub-divided in four distinct sub-units. The approach allows the subdivision of each compartment in a large number of sub-units with distinct environmental characteristics without substantially increasing model complexity. This is a necessary condition for linking fugacity models to geographical information systems.