Radar vegetation indices for monitoring surface vegetation: Developments, challenges, and trends

Monitoring surface vegetation is essential for environmental protection, disaster prevention, and carbon sequestration in forests. However, optical remote-sensing methods and their derivative technologies typically fail to fully meet this requirement due to constraints such as lighting and weather. Radar vegetation indices (RVIs), developed based on microwave remote-sensing data, describe the dielectric properties and morphological structure of vegetation and have been applied for vegetation monitoring at various scales. This technical review is the first to systematically summarize RVIs; it analyzes and discusses their principles, developments, categories and applications, and provides a comprehensive guide for their use. Additionally, the challenges faced by RVIs, as well as their applicability, were analyzed, and future improvements and development trends were carefully projected. The selection of RVIs must consider the type of data used, the terrain and location of the study area, and the major vegetation types. The effectiveness of RVIs applied to vegetation monitoring can be affected by various factors, including index performance, sensor type, study area, and data type and quality. These factors reduce the reliability and robustness of results, as well as guide the improvement direction of RVIs. The development of technologies, such as artificial intelligence, in remote sensing offers new possibilities for RVIs, enabling the removal of background scattering, improvement in interpretation accuracy, and reduction in application thresholds. Additionally, the development trends in high resolution, multi-polarization, multi-base, multi-dimensional, and networked synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and their satellite platforms offer data support for the next generation of RVIs. The rapid development of RVIs strongly supports the use of surface vegetation monitoring and terrestrial ecosystem research.

Passive microwave Arctic sea ice melt onset dates from the advanced horizontal range algorithm 1979-2022

The onset of the summer melt season is a key stage of the Arctic sea ice seasonal cycle and is an indicator of climate change. Surface melting of the bare or snow-covered sea ice is detected using passive microwave satellite observations. The data set presented here is a 44 year record of Arctic sea ice annual melt onset (MO) dates for 1979-2022 produced using an updated version of the Advanced Horizontal Range Algorithm (AHRA). This data product contains annual maps of the sea ice MO date and a set of descriptive statistics summarizing the data. This paper describes a new update of the AHRA methodology, now AHRA V5, including key changes to the algorithm starting date and sea ice mask methodology to improve estimates of early-season MO dates especially near the sea ice periphery. AHRA V5 data are suitable for monitoring trends in Arctic and regional sea ice MO dates and for process studies of atmosphere-sea ice interactions during the early spring and summer months.

Database of daily Lagrangian Arctic sea ice parcel drift tracks with coincident ice and atmospheric conditions

Since the early 2000s, sea ice has experienced an increased rate of decline in thickness, extent and age. This new regime, coined the 'New Arctic', is accompanied by a reshuffling of energy flows at the surface. Understanding of the magnitude and nature of this reshuffling and the feedbacks therein remains limited. A novel database is presented that combines satellite observations, model output, and reanalysis data with sea ice parcel drift tracks in a Lagrangian framework. This dataset consists of daily time series of sea ice parcel locations, sea ice and snow conditions, and atmospheric states, including remotely sensed surface energy budget terms. Additionally, flags indicate when sea ice parcels travel within cyclones, recording cyclone intensity and distance from the cyclone center. The quality of the ice parcel database was evaluated by comparison with sea ice mass balance buoys and correlations are high, which highlights the reliability of this database in capturing the seasonal changes and evolution of sea ice. This database has multiple applications for the scientific community; it can be used to study the processes that influence individual sea ice parcel time series, or to explore generalized summary statistics and trends across the Arctic.

A Sea Ice Concentration Estimation Methodology Utilizing ICESat-2 Photon-Counting Laser Altimeter in the Arctic

NASA’s Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) mission was launched in September 2018. The sole instrument onboard ICESat-2 is ATLAS, a highly precise laser that now provides routine, very-high-resolution, surface height measurements across the globe, including over the Arctic. To further improve the detection accuracy of the sea ice concentration (SIC), we demonstrate a new processing chain that can be used to convert the along-track sea ice freeboard products (ATL10) obtained by ICESat-2 into the SIC, with our initial efforts being focused on the Arctic. For this conversion, we primarily make use of the classification results from the type (sea ice or lead) and segment length data gathered from ATL10. The along-track SIC is the ratio of the area that is covered by sea ice segments to the area of all of the along-track segments. We generated a monthly gridded SIC product with a 25 km resolution and compared this to the NSIDC Climate Data Record (CDR) sea ice concentration. The highest correlation was determined to be 0.7690 in September at high latitudes and the lowest correlation was found to be 0.8595 in June at mid-latitudes. The regions with large standard deviations in summer and autumn are mainly distributed in the thin-ice areas at mid-latitudes. In the Laptev Sea and Kara Sea of east Siberia, the differences in the standard deviation were large; the maximum bias was −0.1566, in November, and the minimum bias was −0.0216, in June. ICESat-2 shows great potential for the accurate estimation of the SIC.

Comparison of Hemispheric and Regional Sea Ice Extent and Area Trends from NOAA and NASA Passive Microwave-Derived Climate Records

Three passive microwave-based sea ice products archived at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) are compared: (1) the NASA Team (NT) algorithm product, (2) Bootstrap (BT) algorithm product, and (3) a new version (Version 4) of the NOAA/NSIDC Climate Data Record (CDR) product. Most notable for the CDR Version 4 is the addition of the early passive microwave record, 1979 to 1987. The focus of this study is on long-term trends in monthly extent and area. In addition to hemispheric trends, regional analysis is also carried out, including use of a new Northern Hemisphere regional mask. The results indicate overall good consistency between the products, with all three products showing strong statistically significant negative trends in the Arctic and small borderline significant positive trends in the Antarctic. Regionally, the patterns are similar, except for a notable outlier of the NT area having a steeper trend in the Central Arctic, likely related to increasing surface melt. Other differences are due to varied approaches to quality control, e.g., weather filtering and correction of mixed land-ocean grid cells. Another factor, particularly in regards to NT trends with BT or CDR, is the inter-sensor calibration approach, which yields small discontinuities between the products. These varied approaches yield small differences in trends. In the Arctic, such differences are not critical, but in the Antarctic, where overall trends are near zero and borderline statistically significant, the differences are potentially important in the interpretation of trends.

Sea Ice Concentration Products over Polar Regions with Chinese FY3C/MWRI Data

Polar sea ice affects atmospheric and ocean circulation and plays an important role in global climate change. Long time series sea ice concentrations (SIC) are an important parameter for climate research. This study presents an SIC retrieval algorithm based on brightness temperature (Tb) data from the FY3C Microwave Radiation Imager (MWRI) over the polar region. With the Tb data of Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) as a reference, monthly calibration models were established based on time–space matching and linear regression. After calibration, the correlation between the Tb of F17/SSMIS and FY3C/MWRI at different channels was improved. Then, SIC products over the Arctic and Antarctic in 2016–2019 were retrieved with the NASA team (NT) method. Atmospheric effects were reduced using two weather filters and a sea ice mask. A minimum ice concentration array used in the procedure reduced the land-to-ocean spillover effect. Compared with the SIC product of National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), the average relative difference of sea ice extent of the Arctic and Antarctic was found to be acceptable, with values of −0.27 ± 1.85 and 0.53 ± 1.50, respectively. To decrease the SIC error with fixed tie points (FTPs), the SIC was retrieved by the NT method with dynamic tie points (DTPs) based on the original Tb of FY3C/MWRI. The different SIC products were evaluated with ship observation data, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sea ice cover products, and the Round Robin Data Package (RRDP). In comparison with the ship observation data, the SIC bias of FY3C with DTP is 4% and is much better than that of FY3C with FTP (9%). Evaluation results with SAR SIC data and closed ice data from RRDP show a similar trend between FY3C SIC with FTPs and FY3C SIC with DTPs. Using DTPs to present the Tb seasonal change of different types of sea ice improved the SIC accuracy, especially for the sea ice melting season. This study lays a foundation for the release of long time series operational SIC products with Chinese FY3 series satellites.

Delay in Arctic Sea Ice Freeze-Up Linked to Early Summer Sea Ice Loss: Evidence from Satellite Observations

The past decades have witnessed a rapid loss of the Arctic sea ice and a significant lengthening of the melt season. The years with the lowest summertime sea ice minimum were found to be accompanied by the latest freeze-up onset on record. Here, a synthetic approach is taken to examine the connections between sea ice melt timing and summer sea ice evolution from the remote sensing perspective. A 40-year (1979–2018) satellite-based time-series analysis shows that the date of autumn sea ice freeze-up is significantly correlated with the sea ice extent in early summer (r = −0.90, p < 0.01), while the spring melt onset is not a promising predictor of summer sea ice evolution. The delay in Arctic sea ice freeze-up (0.61 days year−1) in the Arctic was accompanied by a decline in surface albedo (absolute change of −0.13% year−1), an increase in net short-wave radiation (0.21 W m−2 year−1), and an increase in skin temperature (0.08 °C year−1) in summer. Sea ice loss would be the key reason for the delay in autumn freeze-up, especially in the Laptev, East-Siberian, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, where sea ice has significantly declined throughout the summer, and strong correlations were found between the freeze-up onset and the solar radiation budget since early summer. This study highlights a connection between the summer sea ice melting and the autumn refreezing process through the ice-albedo feedback based on multisource satellite-based observations.

Retrieval of Snow Depth on Arctic Sea Ice from the FY3B/MWRI

Given their high albedo and low thermal conductivity, snow and sea ice are considered key reasons for amplified warming in the Arctic. Snow-covered sea ice is a more effective insulator, which greatly limits the energy and momentum exchange between the atmosphere and surface, and further controls the thermal dynamic processes of snow and ice. In this study, using the Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks (MEMLS), the sensitivities of the brightness temperatures (TBs) from the FengYun-3B/MicroWave Radiometer Imager (FY3B/MWRI) to changes in snow depth were simulated, on both first-year and multiyear ice in the Arctic. Further, the correlation coefficients between the TBs and snow depths in different atmospheric and sea ice environments were investigated. Based on the simulation results, the most sensitive factors to snow depth, including channels of MWRI and their combination form, were determined for snow depth retrieval. Finally, using the 2012–2013 Operational IceBridge (OIB) snow depth data, retrieval algorithms of snow depth were developed for the Arctic on first-year and multiyear ice, separately. Validation using the 2011 OIB data indicates that the bias and standard deviation (Std) of the algorithm are 2.89 cm and 2.6 cm on first-year ice (FYI), respectively, and 1.44 cm and 4.53 cm on multiyear ice (MYI), respectively.

Variation in Ice Phenology of Large Lakes over the Northern Hemisphere Based on Passive Microwave Remote Sensing Data

Ice phenology data of 22 large lakes of the Northern Hemisphere for 40 years (1979–2018) have been retrieved from passive microwave remote sensing brightness temperature (Tb). The results were compared with site-observation data and visual interpretation from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectivity products images (MOD09GA). The mean absolute errors of four lake ice phenology parameters, including freeze-up start date (FUS), freeze-up end date (FUE), break-up start date (BUS), and break-up end date (BUE) against MODIS-derived ice phenology were 2.50, 2.33, 1.98, and 3.27 days, respectively. The long-term variation in lake ice phenology indicates that FUS and FUE are delayed; BUS and BUE are earlier; ice duration (ID) and complete ice duration (CID) have a general decreasing trend. The average change rates of FUS, FUE, BUS, BUE, ID, and CID of lakes in this study from 1979 to 2018 were 0.23, 0.23, −0.17, −0.33, −0.67, and −0.48 days/year, respectively. Air temperature and latitude are two dominant driving factors of lake ice phenology. Lake ice phenology for the period 2021–2100 was predicted by the relationship between ice phenology and air temperature for each lake. Compared with lake ice phenology changes from 1990 to 2010, FUS is projected to be delayed by 3.1 days and 11.8 days under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively; BUS is projected to be earlier by 3.3 days and 10.7 days, respectively; and ice duration from 2080 to 2100 will decrease by 6.5 days and 21.9 days, respectively.

Statistical modeling of sea ice concentration in the northwest region of the Antarctic Peninsula

Sea ice is one of the main components of the cryosphere that modifies the exchange of heat and moisture between the ocean and atmosphere, regulating the global climate. In this sense, it is important to identify the concentration of sea ice in different regions of Antarctica in order to measure the impact of environmental changes on the region's ecosystem. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of the multiple linear regression and Box-Jenkins methods for predicting the concentration of sea ice along the northwest coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. Sea ice concentration data from May to November for the period 1979-2018 were extracted from passive remote sensors including a scanning multichannel microwave radiometer, special sensor microwave imager, and special sensor microwave imager/sounder. Meteorological variables from the atmospheric reanalysis model ERA5 of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts were used as predictor variables, and the leave-one-out cross-validation technique was used to calibrate and validate the models. It was found that both statistical models have similar performance when analyzing residual analysis results, root mean square error of cross-validation, and final accuracy and residual standard deviation, these responses being related to the regionalization of the study area and to the Box-Jenkins presents strong, homogeneous, and stable correlations in the time series modeled for each pixel.

Assessment of the Stability of Passive Microwave Brightness Temperatures for NASA Team Sea Ice Concentration Retrievals

Gridded passive microwave brightness temperatures (TB) from special sensor microwave imager and sounder (SSMIS) instruments on three different satellite platforms are compared in different years to investigate the consistency between the sensors over time. The orbits of the three platforms have drifted over their years of operation, resulting in changing relative observing times that could cause biases in TB estimates and near-real-time sea ice concentrations derived from the NASA Team algorithm that are produced at the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Comparisons of TB histograms and concentrations show that there are small mean differences between sensors, but variability within an individual sensor is much greater. There are some indications of small changes due to orbital drift, but these are not consistent across different frequencies. Further, the overall effect of the drift, while not definitive, is small compared to the intra- and interannual variability in individual sensors. These results suggest that, for near-real-time use, the differences in the sensors are not critical. However, for long-term time series, even the small biases should be corrected for. The strong day-to-day, seasonal, and interannual variability in TB distributions indicate that time-varying algorithm coefficients in the NASA team algorithm would lead to improved, more consistent sea ice concentration estimates.

Ice Concentration Retrieval from the Analysis of Microwaves: Evaluation of a New Methodology Optimized for the Copernicus Imaging Microwave Radiometer

A new methodology has been described in Kilic et al. (Ice Concentration Retrieval from the Analysis of Microwaves: A New Methodology Designed for the Copernicus Imaging Microwave Radiometer, Remote Sensing 2020, 12, 1060, Part 1 of this study) to estimate Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) from satellite passive microwave observations between 6 and 36 GHz. The Ice Concentration Retrieval from the Analysis of Microwaves (IceCREAM) algorithm is based on an optimal estimation, with a simple radiative transfer model derived from satellite observations at 0% and 100% SIC. Observations at low and high frequencies have different spatial resolutions, and a scheme is developed to benefit from the low errors of the low frequencies and the high spatial resolutions of the high frequencies. This effort is specifically designed for the Copernicus Imaging Microwave Radiometer (CIMR) project, equipped with a large deployable antenna to provide a spatial resolution of ∼5 km at 18 and 36 GHz, and ∼15 km at 6 and 10 GHz. The algorithm is tested with Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) observations, for a clear scene over the north polar region, with collocated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) estimates and the Ocean Sea Ice—Satellite Application Facilities (OSI SAF) operational products. Several algorithm options are tested, and the study case shows that both high spatial resolution and low errors are obtained with the IceCREAM method. It is also tested for the full polar regions, winter and summer, under clear and cloudy conditions. Our method is globally applicable, without fine-tuning or further weather filtering. The systematic use of all channels from 6 to 36 GHz makes it robust to changes in ice surface conditions and to weather interactions.

Intensified Management of Coffee Forest in Southwest Ethiopia Detected by Landsat Imagery

The high forests in southwest Ethiopia, some of the last remaining Afromontane forests in the country, are home to significant forest coffee production. While considered as beneficial in maintaining forests, there have been growing concerns about the degradation caused by intensive management for coffee production in these forests. However, no suitable methods have been developed to map the coffee forests. In this study, we developed a tie-point approach to consistently estimate the degree of degradation caused by intensive management by combining use of Landsat imagery with in-situ canopy cover and tree survey data. Our results demonstrate a clear distinction between undisturbed natural forest and heavily managed coffee forest due to changes in forest structure and canopy cover caused by intensive management in the coffee forest. Temporal analysis of 32 years of Landsat imagery reveals a progressive and significant transition in the level of degradation in the coffee forest over this period. This is the first time to our knowledge, that this progressive intensification of coffee forest has been measured. There is a major intensification in the mid-1990s, which follows the introduction of new liberal economic policies by the Federal government established in 1991, rising coffee prices, and changes in state control over access to the forest. The question remains as to how these 20 years of intensive management in coffee forest have affected forest biodiversity and, more importantly, how canopy trees in this forest can be regenerated in the future. This study provides potential satellite-based mapping and ground-based photography and tree survey methods to help investigate the impacts of intensive management within coffee forest on biodiversity and regeneration.

Ice Concentration Retrieval from the Analysis of Microwaves: A New Methodology Designed for the Copernicus Imaging Microwave Radiometer

Over the last 25 years, the Arctic sea ice has seen its extent decline dramatically. Passive microwave observations, with their ability to penetrate clouds and their independency to sunlight, have been used to provide sea ice concentration (SIC) measurements since the 1970s. The Copernicus Imaging Microwave Radiometer (CIMR) is a high priority candidate mission within the European Copernicus Expansion program, with a special focus on the observation of the polar regions. It will observe at 6.9 and 10.65 GHz with 15 km spatial resolution, and at 18.7 and 36.5 GHz with 5 km spatial resolution. SIC algorithms are based on empirical methods, using the difference in radiometric signatures between the ocean and sea ice. Up to now, the existing algorithms have been limited in the number of channels they use. In this study, we proposed a new SIC algorithm called Ice Concentration REtrieval from the Analysis of Microwaves (IceCREAM). It can accommodate a large range of channels, and it is based on the optimal estimation. Linear relationships between the satellite measurements and the SIC are derived from the Round Robin Data Package of the sea ice Climate Change Initiative. The 6 and 10 GHz channels are very sensitive to the sea ice presence, whereas the 18 and 36 GHz channels have a better spatial resolution. A data fusion method is proposed to combine these two estimations. Therefore, IceCREAM will provide SIC estimates with the good accuracy of the 6+10GHz combination, and the high spatial resolution of the 18+36GHz combination.

Variability in Antarctic sea ice from 1998 to 2017

This study was based on the daily sea ice concentration data from the NASA Team algorithm from 1998 to 2017. The Antarctic sea ice was analyzed from the total sea ice area (SIA), first-year ice area, and multiyear ice area. On a temporal scale, the changes in sea ice parameters were studied over the whole 20 years. The results showed that the total SIA increased by 0.0087 × 10⁶ km² year^-1 (+ 2.08% dec^-1) between 1998 and 2017. The multiyear ice area increased by 0.0141 × 10⁶ km² year^-1 from 1998 to 2017. The first-year ice area decreased by - 0.0058 × 10⁶ km² year^-1 between 1998 and 2017. On a spatial scale, the entire Antarctic was divided into two areas, namely West Antarctica (WA) and East Antarctica (EA), according to the spatial change rate of sea ice concentration. The total sea ice and multiyear ice areas showed a decreasing trend in WA. However, the total SIA and multiyear ice area all showed an increasing trend in EA. Therefore, Antarctic sea ice presented an increasing trend, but there were different trends in WA and EA.

Variability of Arctic Sea Ice (1979–2016)

This study is based on the daily sea ice concentration data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), Boulder, CO, USA) from 1979 to 2016. The Arctic sea ice is analyzed from the total sea ice area, first year ice extent, multiyear ice area, and the variability of sea ice concentration in different ranges. The results show that the total sea ice area decreased by 0.0453 × 106 km2·year−1 (−0.55%/year) between 1979 and 2016, and the variability of the sea ice area from 1997 to 2016 is significantly larger than that from 1979 to 1996. The first-year ice extent increased by 0.0199 × 106 km2·year−1 (0.36%/year) from 1997 to 2016. The multiyear ice area decreased by 0.0711 × 106 km2·year−1 (−0.66%/year) from 1979 to 2016, of which in the last 20 years is about 30.8% less than in 1979–1996. In terms of concentration, we have focused on comparing 1979–1996 and 1997–2016 in different ranges. Sea ice concentration between 0.9–1 accounted for about 39.57% from 1979 to 1996, while from 1997–2016, it accounted for only 27.75%. However, the sea ice of concentration between 0.15–0.4 exhibits no significant trend changes.

Satellite-Based Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Using a Deep Neural Network with Multi-Model Ensemble

Warming of the Arctic leads to a decrease in sea ice, and the decrease of sea ice, in turn, results in warming of the Arctic again. Several microwave sensors have provided continuously updated sea ice data for over 30 years. Many studies have been conducted to investigate the relationships between the satellite-derived sea ice concentration (SIC) of the Arctic and climatic factors associated with the accelerated warming. However, linear equations using the general circulation model (GCM) data, with low spatial resolution, cannot sufficiently cope with the problem of complexity or non-linearity. Time-series techniques are effective for one-step-ahead forecasting, but are not appropriate for future prediction for about ten or twenty years because of increasing uncertainty when forecasting multiple steps ahead. This paper describes a new approach to near-future prediction of Arctic SIC by employing a deep learning method with multi-model ensemble. We used the regional climate model (RCM) data provided in higher resolution, instead of GCM. The RCM ensemble was produced by Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to minimize the uncertainty which can arise from a single RCM. The accuracies of RCM variables were much improved by the BMA2 method, which took into consideration temporal and spatial variations to minimize the uncertainty of individual RCMs. A deep neural network (DNN) method was used to deal with the non-linear relationships between SIC and climate variables, and to provide a near-future prediction for the forthcoming 10 to 20 years. We adjusted the DNN model for optimized SIC prediction by adopting best-fitted layer structure, loss function, optimizer algorithm, and activation function. The accuracy was much improved when the DNN model was combined with BMA2 ensemble, showing the correlation coefficient of 0.888. This study provides a viable option for monitoring Arctic sea ice change of the near future.

Statistical Analysis of SSMIS Sea Ice Concentration Threshold at the Arctic Sea Ice Edge during Summer Based on MODIS and Ship-Based Observational Data

The threshold of sea ice concentration (SIC) is the basis for accurately calculating sea ice extent based on passive microwave (PM) remote sensing data. However, the PM SIC threshold at the sea ice edge used in previous studies and released sea ice products has not always been consistent. To explore the representable value of the PM SIC threshold corresponding on average to the position of the Arctic sea ice edge during summer in recent years, we extracted sea ice edge boundaries from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea ice product (MOD29 with a spatial resolution of 1 km), MODIS images (250 m), and sea ice ship-based observation points (1 km) during the fifth (CHINARE-2012) and sixth (CHINARE-2014) Chinese National Arctic Research Expeditions, and made an overlay and comparison analysis with PM SIC derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS, with a spatial resolution of 25 km) in the summer of 2012 and 2014. Results showed that the average SSMIS SIC threshold at the Arctic sea ice edge based on ice-water boundary lines extracted from MOD29 was 33%, which was higher than that of the commonly used 15% discriminant threshold. The average SIC threshold at sea ice edge based on ice-water boundary lines extracted by visual interpretation from four scenes of the MODIS image was 35% when compared to the average value of 36% from the MOD29 extracted ice edge pixels for the same days. The average SIC of 31% at the sea ice edge points extracted from ship-based observations also confirmed that choosing around 30% as the SIC threshold during summer is recommended for sea ice extent calculations based on SSMIS PM data. These results can provide a reference for further studying the variation of sea ice under the rapidly changing Arctic.

Response of Pacific-sector Antarctic ice shelves to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation

Satellite observations over the past two decades have revealed increasing loss of grounded ice in West Antarctica, associated with floating ice shelves that have been thinning. Thinning reduces an ice-shelf's ability to restrain grounded-ice discharge, yet our understanding of the climate processes that drive mass changes is limited. Here, we use ice-shelf height data from four satellite altimeter missions (1994-2017) to show a direct link between ice-shelf-height variability in the Antarctic Pacific sector and changes in regional atmospheric circulation driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. This link is strongest from Dotson to Ross ice shelves and weaker elsewhere. During intense El Niño years, height increase by accumulation exceeds the height decrease by basal melting, but net ice-shelf mass declines as basal ice loss exceeds lower-density snow gain. Our results demonstrate a substantial response of Amundsen Sea ice shelves to global and regional climate variability, with rates of change in height and mass on interannual timescales that can be comparable to the longer-term trend, and with mass changes from surface accumulation offsetting a significant fraction of the changes in basal melting. This implies that ice-shelf height and mass variability will increase as interannual atmospheric variability increases in a warming climate.

Net primary productivity estimates and environmental variables in the Arctic Ocean: An assessment of coupled physical-biogeochemical models

The relative skill of 21 regional and global biogeochemical models was assessed in terms of how well the models reproduced observed net primary productivity (NPP) and environmental variables such as nitrate concentration (NO₃), mixed layer depth (MLD), euphotic layer depth (Z_eu), and sea ice concentration, by comparing results against a newly updated, quality-controlled in situ NPP database for the Arctic Ocean (1959-2011). The models broadly captured the spatial features of integrated NPP (iNPP) on a pan-Arctic scale. Most models underestimated iNPP by varying degrees in spite of overestimating surface NO₃, MLD, and Z_eu throughout the regions. Among the models, iNPP exhibited little difference over sea ice condition (ice-free versus ice-influenced) and bottom depth (shelf versus deep ocean). The models performed relatively well for the most recent decade and toward the end of Arctic summer. In the Barents and Greenland Seas, regional model skill of surface NO₃ was best associated with how well MLD was reproduced. Regionally, iNPP was relatively well simulated in the Beaufort Sea and the central Arctic Basin, where in situ NPP is low and nutrients are mostly depleted. Models performed less well at simulating iNPP in the Greenland and Chukchi Seas, despite the higher model skill in MLD and sea ice concentration, respectively. iNPP model skill was constrained by different factors in different Arctic Ocean regions. Our study suggests that better parameterization of biological and ecological microbial rates (phytoplankton growth and zooplankton grazing) are needed for improved Arctic Ocean biogeochemical modeling.

How well must climate models agree with observations?

The usefulness of a climate-model simulation cannot be inferred solely from its degree of agreement with observations. Instead, one has to consider additional factors such as internal variability, the tuning of the model, observational uncertainty, the temporal change in dominant processes or the uncertainty in the forcing. In any model-evaluation study, the impact of these limiting factors on the suitability of specific metrics must hence be examined. This can only meaningfully be done relative to a given purpose for using a model. I here generally discuss these points and substantiate their impact on model evaluation using the example of sea ice. For this example, I find that many standard metrics such as sea-ice area or volume only permit limited inferences about the shortcomings of individual models.

Climate trends in the Arctic as observed from space

The Arctic is a region in transformation. Warming in the region has been amplified, as expected from ice-albedo feedback effects, with the rate of warming observed to be ∼0.60 ± 0.07°C/decade in the Arctic (>64°N) compared to ∼0.17°C/decade globally during the last three decades. This increase in surface temperature is manifested in all components of the cryosphere. In particular, the sea ice extent has been declining at the rate of ∼3.8%/decade, whereas the perennial ice (represented by summer ice minimum) is declining at a much greater rate of ∼11.5%/decade. Spring snow cover has also been observed to be declining by -2.12%/decade for the period 1967-2012. The Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass at the rate of ∼34.0 Gt/year (sea level equivalence of 0.09 mm/year) during the period from 1992 to 2011, but for the period 2002-2011, a higher rate of mass loss of ∼215 Gt/year has been observed. Also, the mass of glaciers worldwide declined at the rate of 226 Gt/year from 1971 to 2009 and 275 Gt/year from 1993 to 2009. Increases in permafrost temperature have also been measured in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere while a thickening of the active layer that overlies permafrost and a thinning of seasonally frozen ground has also been reported. To gain insight into these changes, comparative analysis with trends in clouds, albedo, and the Arctic Oscillation is also presented. How to cite this article:WIREs Clim Change 2014, 5:389�409. doi: 10.1002/wcc.277.