1
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Kwon EY, Dunne JP, Lee K. Biological export production controls upper ocean calcium carbonate dissolution and CO 2 buffer capacity. Sci Adv 2024; 10:eadl0779. [PMID: 38552016 PMCID: PMC10980259 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adl0779] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2023] [Accepted: 02/23/2024] [Indexed: 04/01/2024]
Abstract
Marine biogenic calcium carbonate (CaCO3) cycles play a key role in ecosystems and in regulating the ocean's ability to absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). However, the drivers and magnitude of CaCO3 cycling are not well understood, especially for the upper ocean. Here, we provide global-scale evidence that heterotrophic respiration in settling marine aggregates may produce localized undersaturated microenvironments in which CaCO3 particles rapidly dissolve, producing excess alkalinity in the upper ocean. In the deep ocean, dissolution of CaCO3 is primarily driven by conventional thermodynamics of CaCO3 solubility with reduced fluxes of CaCO3 burial to marine sediments beneath more corrosive North Pacific deep waters. Upper ocean dissolution, shown to be sensitive to ocean export production, can increase the neutralizing capacity for respired CO2 by up to 6% in low-latitude thermocline waters. Without upper ocean dissolution, the ocean might lose 20% more CO2 to the atmosphere through the low-latitude upwelling regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eun Young Kwon
- Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan 46241, South Korea
- Pusan National University, Busan 46241, South Korea
| | - John P. Dunne
- NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 201 Forrestal Rd, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Kitack Lee
- Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, South Korea
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2
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Adams RW, John RO, Blazina D, Eguillor B, Cockett MCR, Dunne JP, López‐Serrano J, Duckett SB. Contrasting Photochemical and Thermal Catalysis by Ruthenium Arsine Complexes Revealed by Parahydrogen Enhanced NMR Spectroscopy. Eur J Inorg Chem 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ejic.202100991] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Ralph W. Adams
- Department of Chemistry University of York Heslington, York YO10 5DD UK
- Current address: School of Chemistry University of Manchester Manchester M13 9PL UK
| | - Richard O. John
- Department of Chemistry University of York Heslington, York YO10 5DD UK
- Current address: Department of Physics University of York Heslington, York YO10 5DD UK
| | - Damir Blazina
- Department of Chemistry University of York Heslington, York YO10 5DD UK
| | - Beatriz Eguillor
- Department of Chemistry University of York Heslington, York YO10 5DD UK
- Current address: Departamento de Química Inorgánica Instituto de Síntesis Química y Catálisis Homogénea (ISQCH) Centro de Innovación en Química Avanzada (ORFEO-CINQA) Universidad de Zaragoza – CSIC 50009 Zaragoza Spain
| | | | - John P. Dunne
- Department of Chemistry University of York Heslington, York YO10 5DD UK
| | - Joaquín López‐Serrano
- Department of Chemistry University of York Heslington, York YO10 5DD UK
- Current address: Departmento de Química Inorgánica Universidad de Sevilla 41012 Sevilla, Andalucía Spain
| | - Simon B. Duckett
- Department of Chemistry University of York Heslington, York YO10 5DD UK
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3
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Tittensor DP, Novaglio C, Harrison CS, Heneghan RF, Barrier N, Bianchi D, Bopp L, Bryndum-Buchholz A, Britten GL, Büchner M, Cheung WWL, Christensen V, Coll M, Dunne JP, Eddy TD, Everett JD, Fernandes-Salvador JA, Fulton EA, Galbraith ED, Gascuel D, Guiet J, John JG, Link JS, Lotze HK, Maury O, Ortega-Cisneros K, Palacios-Abrantes J, Petrik CM, du Pontavice H, Rault J, Richardson AJ, Shannon L, Shin YJ, Steenbeek J, Stock CA, Blanchard JL. Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems. Nat Clim Chang 2021; 11:973-981. [PMID: 34745348 PMCID: PMC8556156 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2021] [Accepted: 09/01/2021] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Derek P. Tittensor
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia Canada
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK
| | - Camilla Novaglio
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
- Center for Marine Socio-ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
| | - Cheryl S. Harrison
- School of Earth, Environmental and Marine Science, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Port Isabel, TX USA
- Department of Ocean and Coastal Science and Centre for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA USA
| | - Ryan F. Heneghan
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland Australia
| | - Nicolas Barrier
- MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France
| | - Daniele Bianchi
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA USA
| | - Laurent Bopp
- LMD/IPSL, CNRS, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France
| | | | - Gregory L. Britten
- Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA USA
| | - Matthias Büchner
- Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
| | - William W. L. Cheung
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia Canada
| | - Villy Christensen
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia Canada
| | - Marta Coll
- Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
- Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Barcelona, Spain
| | - John P. Dunne
- NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | - Tyler D. Eddy
- Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries and Marine Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador Canada
| | - Jason D. Everett
- School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, Brisbane, Queensland Australia
- Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales Australia
| | | | - Elizabeth A. Fulton
- Center for Marine Socio-ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
| | - Eric D. Galbraith
- Department of Earth and Planetary Science, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec Canada
| | - Didier Gascuel
- UMR Ecology and Ecosystems Health (ESE), Institut Agro, Inrae, Rennes, France
| | - Jerome Guiet
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA USA
| | - Jasmin G. John
- NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | | | - Heike K. Lotze
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia Canada
| | - Olivier Maury
- MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France
| | | | - Juliano Palacios-Abrantes
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia Canada
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI USA
| | - Colleen M. Petrik
- Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX USA
| | - Hubert du Pontavice
- UMR Ecology and Ecosystems Health (ESE), Institut Agro, Inrae, Rennes, France
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ USA
| | - Jonathan Rault
- MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France
| | - Anthony J. Richardson
- School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, Brisbane, Queensland Australia
| | - Lynne Shannon
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Yunne-Jai Shin
- MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France
| | - Jeroen Steenbeek
- Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Charles A. Stock
- NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | - Julia L. Blanchard
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
- Center for Marine Socio-ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
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4
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Schlunegger S, Rodgers KB, Sarmiento JL, Ilyina T, Dunne JP, Takano Y, Christian JR, Long MC, Frölicher TL, Slater R, Lehner F. Time of Emergence and Large Ensemble Intercomparison for Ocean Biogeochemical Trends. Global Biogeochem Cycles 2020; 34:e2019GB006453. [PMID: 32999530 PMCID: PMC7507776 DOI: 10.1029/2019gb006453] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2019] [Revised: 04/24/2020] [Accepted: 07/11/2020] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
Anthropogenically forced changes in ocean biogeochemistry are underway and critical for the ocean carbon sink and marine habitat. Detecting such changes in ocean biogeochemistry will require quantification of the magnitude of the change (anthropogenic signal) and the natural variability inherent to the climate system (noise). Here we use Large Ensemble (LE) experiments from four Earth system models (ESMs) with multiple emissions scenarios to estimate Time of Emergence (ToE) and partition projection uncertainty for anthropogenic signals in five biogeochemically important upper-ocean variables. We find ToEs are robust across ESMs for sea surface temperature and the invasion of anthropogenic carbon; emergence time scales are 20-30 yr. For the biological carbon pump, and sea surface chlorophyll and salinity, emergence time scales are longer (50+ yr), less robust across the ESMs, and more sensitive to the forcing scenario considered. We find internal variability uncertainty, and model differences in the internal variability uncertainty, can be consequential sources of uncertainty for projecting regional changes in ocean biogeochemistry over the coming decades. In combining structural, scenario, and internal variability uncertainty, this study represents the most comprehensive characterization of biogeochemical emergence time scales and uncertainty to date. Our findings delineate critical spatial and duration requirements for marine observing systems to robustly detect anthropogenic change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah Schlunegger
- Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesPrinceton UniversityPrincetonNJUSA
| | - Keith B. Rodgers
- Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesPrinceton UniversityPrincetonNJUSA
- Center for Climate PhysicsInstitute for Basic ScienceBusanSouth Korea
- Pusan National UniversityBusanSouth Korea
| | - Jorge L. Sarmiento
- Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesPrinceton UniversityPrincetonNJUSA
| | | | - John P. Dunne
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryPrincetonNJUSA
| | - Yohei Takano
- Max Plank Institute for MeteorologyHamburgGermany
- Los Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNMUSA
| | - James R. Christian
- Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and AnalysisVictoriaBritish ColumbiaCanada
| | | | - Thomas L. Frölicher
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics InstituteUniversity of BernBernSwitzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change ResearchUniversity of BernBernSwitzerland
| | - Richard Slater
- Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesPrinceton UniversityPrincetonNJUSA
| | - Flavio Lehner
- National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulderCOUSA
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5
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicholas A O'Mara
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA. .,Department of Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.
| | - John P Dunne
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 201 Forrestal Rd, Princeton, NJ, USA
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6
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Abstract
Marine microbes form the base of ocean food webs and drive ocean biogeochemical cycling. Yet little is known about the ability of microbial populations to adapt as they are advected through changing conditions. Here, we investigated the interplay between physical and biological timescales using a model of adaptation and an eddy-resolving ocean circulation climate model. Two criteria were identified that relate the timing and nature of adaptation to the ratio of physical to biological timescales. Genetic adaptation was impeded in highly variable regimes by nongenetic modifications but was promoted in more stable environments. An evolutionary trade-off emerged where greater short-term nongenetic transgenerational effects (low-γ strategy) enabled rapid responses to environmental fluctuations but delayed genetic adaptation, while fewer short-term transgenerational effects (high-γ strategy) allowed faster genetic adaptation but inhibited short-term responses. Our results demonstrate that the selective pressures for organisms within a single water mass vary based on differences in generation timescales resulting in different evolutionary strategies being favored. Organisms that experience more variable environments should favor a low-γ strategy. Furthermore, faster cell division rates should be a key factor in genetic adaptation in a changing ocean. Understanding and quantifying the relationship between evolutionary and physical timescales is critical for robust predictions of future microbial dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nathan G Walworth
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 91011
| | - Emily J Zakem
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 91011
| | - John P Dunne
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ 08540
| | - Sinéad Collins
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, United Kingdom
| | - Naomi M Levine
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 91011;
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7
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Resplandy L, Keeling RF, Eddebbar Y, Brooks M, Wang R, Bopp L, Long MC, Dunne JP, Koeve W, Oschlies A. Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O 2 and CO 2 composition. Sci Rep 2019; 9:20244. [PMID: 31882758 PMCID: PMC6934503 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-56490-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2019] [Accepted: 12/12/2019] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The ocean is the main source of thermal inertia in the climate system. Ocean heat uptake during recent decades has been quantified using ocean temperature measurements. However, these estimates all use the same imperfect ocean dataset and share additional uncertainty due to sparse coverage, especially before 2007. Here, we provide an independent estimate by using measurements of atmospheric oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2) - levels of which increase as the ocean warms and releases gases - as a whole ocean thermometer. We show that the ocean gained 1.29 ± 0.79 × 1022 Joules of heat per year between 1991 and 2016, equivalent to a planetary energy imbalance of 0.80 ± 0.49 W watts per square metre of Earth's surface. We also find that the ocean-warming effect that led to the outgassing of O2 and CO2 can be isolated from the direct effects of anthropogenic emissions and CO2 sinks. Our result - which relies on high-precision O2 atmospheric measurements dating back to 1991 - leverages an integrative Earth system approach and provides much needed independent confirmation of heat uptake estimated from ocean data.
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Affiliation(s)
- L Resplandy
- Department of Geosciences and Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, USA.
| | - R F Keeling
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, USA
| | - Y Eddebbar
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, USA
| | - M Brooks
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, USA
| | - R Wang
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200433, China
| | - L Bopp
- Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, CNRS/ENS/X/UPMC, Département de Géosciences, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France
| | - M C Long
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA
| | - J P Dunne
- NOAA, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, USA
| | - W Koeve
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany
| | - A Oschlies
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany
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8
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Resplandy L, Keeling RF, Eddebbar Y, Brooks MK, Wang R, Bopp L, Long MC, Dunne JP, Koeve W, Oschlies A. Retraction Note: Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O 2 and CO 2 composition. Nature 2019; 573:614. [PMID: 31554976 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1585-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
This Article has been retracted; see accompanying Retraction Note.
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Affiliation(s)
- L Resplandy
- Department of Geosciences and Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
| | - R F Keeling
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Y Eddebbar
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - M K Brooks
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - R Wang
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - L Bopp
- LMD/IPSL, ENS, PSL Research University, École Polytechnique, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Paris, France
| | - M C Long
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - J P Dunne
- NOAA, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - W Koeve
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
| | - A Oschlies
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
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9
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Schlunegger S, Rodgers KB, Sarmiento JL, Frölicher TL, Dunne JP, Ishii M, Slater R. Emergence of Anthropogenic Signals in the Ocean Carbon Cycle. Nat Clim Chang 2019; 9:719-725. [PMID: 31534491 PMCID: PMC6750021 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0553-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2018] [Accepted: 07/10/2019] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
Attribution of anthropogenically-forced trends in the climate system requires understanding when and how such signals will emerge from natural variability. We apply time-of-emergence diagnostics to a Large Ensemble of an Earth System Model, providing both a conceptual framework for interpreting the detectability of anthropogenic impacts in the ocean carbon cycle and observational sampling strategies required to achieve detection. We find emergence timescales ranging from under a decade to over a century, a consequence of the time-lag between chemical and radiative impacts of rising atmospheric CO2 on the ocean. Processes sensitive to carbonate-chemical changes emerge rapidly, such as impacts of acidification on the calcium-carbonate pump (10 years for the globally-integrated signal, 9-18 years regionally-integrated), and the invasion flux of anthropogenic CO2 into the ocean (14 globally, 13-26 regionally). Processes sensitive to the ocean's physical state, such as the soft-tissue pump, which depends on nutrients supplied through circulation, emerge decades later (23 globally, 27-85 regionally).
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah Schlunegger
- Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
| | - Keith B. Rodgers
- Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, South Korea
- Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea
| | - Jorge L. Sarmiento
- Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
| | - Thomas L. Frölicher
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland
| | - John P. Dunne
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
| | - Masao Ishii
- Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Richard Slater
- Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
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10
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Park JY, Stock CA, Dunne JP, Yang X, Rosati A. Seasonal to multiannual marine ecosystem prediction with a global Earth system model. Science 2019; 365:284-288. [PMID: 31320541 DOI: 10.1126/science.aav6634] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2018] [Accepted: 06/25/2019] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
Climate variations have a profound impact on marine ecosystems and the communities that depend upon them. Anticipating ecosystem shifts using global Earth system models (ESMs) could enable communities to adapt to climate fluctuations and contribute to long-term ecosystem resilience. We show that newly developed ESM-based marine biogeochemical predictions can skillfully predict satellite-derived seasonal to multiannual chlorophyll fluctuations in many regions. Prediction skill arises primarily from successfully simulating the chlorophyll response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and capturing the winter reemergence of subsurface nutrient anomalies in the extratropics, which subsequently affect spring and summer chlorophyll concentrations. Further investigations suggest that interannual fish-catch variations in selected large marine ecosystems can be anticipated from predicted chlorophyll and sea surface temperature anomalies. This result, together with high predictability for other marine-resource-relevant biogeochemical properties (e.g., oxygen, primary production), suggests a role for ESM-based marine biogeochemical predictions in dynamic marine resource management efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jong-Yeon Park
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA. .,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.,Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Chonbuk National University, Jeonju-si, Jeollabuk-do 54896, Republic of Korea
| | - Charles A Stock
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA
| | - John P Dunne
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA
| | - Xiaosong Yang
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA
| | - Anthony Rosati
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA
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11
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Abstract
Ocean calcium carbonate (CaCO3) production and preservation play a key role in the global carbon cycle. Coastal and continental shelf (neritic) environments account for more than half of global CaCO3 accumulation. Previous neritic CaCO3 budgets have been limited in both spatial resolution and ability to project responses to environmental change. Here, a 1° spatially explicit budget for neritic CaCO3 accumulation is developed. Globally gridded satellite and benthic community area data are used to estimate community CaCO3 production. Accumulation rates (PgC yr−1) of four neritic environments are calculated: coral reefs/banks (0.084), seagrass-dominated embayments (0.043), and carbonate rich (0.037) and poor (0.0002) shelves. This analysis refines previous neritic CaCO3 accumulation estimates (~0.16) and shows almost all coastal carbonate accumulation occurs in the tropics, >50% of coral reef accumulation occurs in the Western Pacific Ocean, and 80% of coral reef, 63% of carbonate shelf, and 58% of bay accumulation occur within three global carbonate hot spots: the Western Pacific Ocean, Eastern Indian Ocean, and Caribbean Sea. These algorithms are amenable for incorporation into Earth System Models that represent open ocean pelagic CaCO3 production and deep-sea preservation and assess impacts and feedbacks of environmental change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicholas A O'Mara
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA. .,Department of Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.
| | - John P Dunne
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 201 Forrestal Rd, Princeton, NJ, USA
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12
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Claret M, Galbraith ED, Palter JB, Bianchi D, Fennel K, Gilbert D, Dunne JP. Rapid coastal deoxygenation due to ocean circulation shift in the NW Atlantic. Nat Clim Chang 2018; 8:866-872. [PMID: 30416585 PMCID: PMC6218011 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0263-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/15/2018] [Accepted: 07/27/2018] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Global observations show that the ocean lost approximately 2% of its oxygen inventory over the last five decades 1-3, with important implications for marine ecosystems 4, 5. The rate of change varies with northwest Atlantic coastal waters showing a long-term drop 6, 7 that vastly outpaces the global and North Atlantic basin mean deoxygenation rates 5, 8. However, past work has been unable to resolve mechanisms of large-scale climate forcing from local processes. Here, we use hydrographic evidence to show a Labrador Current retreat is playing a key role in the deoxygenation on the northwest Atlantic shelf. A high-resolution global coupled climate-biogeochemistry model 9 reproduces the observed decline of saturation oxygen concentrations in the region, driven by a retreat of the equatorward-flowing Labrador Current and an associated shift toward more oxygen-poor subtropical waters on the shelf. The dynamical changes underlying the shift in shelf water properties are correlated with a slowdown in the simulated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 10. Our results provide strong evidence that a major, centennial-scale change of the Labrador Current is underway, and highlight the potential for ocean dynamics to impact coastal deoxygenation over the coming century.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mariona Claret
- Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and the Ocean, Seattle, WA, USA
- University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montréal, QC, Canada
| | - Eric D Galbraith
- Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montréal, QC, Canada
| | - Jaime B Palter
- Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI, USA
| | - Daniele Bianchi
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Katja Fennel
- Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
| | - Denis Gilbert
- Maurice Lamontagne Institute, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Mont-Joli, QC, Canada
| | - John P Dunne
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
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13
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Mislan KAS, Deutsch CA, Brill RW, Dunne JP, Sarmiento JL. Projections of climate-driven changes in tuna vertical habitat based on species-specific differences in blood oxygen affinity. Glob Chang Biol 2017; 23:4019-4028. [PMID: 28657206 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13799] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2016] [Accepted: 05/19/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Oxygen concentrations are hypothesized to decrease in many areas of the ocean as a result of anthropogenically driven climate change, resulting in habitat compression for pelagic animals. The oxygen partial pressure, pO2 , at which blood is 50% saturated (P50 ) is a measure of blood oxygen affinity and a gauge of the tolerance of animals for low ambient oxygen. Tuna species display a wide range of blood oxygen affinities (i.e., P50 values) and therefore may be differentially impacted by habitat compression as they make extensive vertical movements to forage on subdaily time scales. To project the effects of end-of-the-century climate change on tuna habitat, we calculate tuna P50 depths (i.e., the vertical position in the water column at which ambient pO2 is equal to species-specific blood P50 values) from 21st century Earth System Model (ESM) projections included in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Overall, we project P50 depths to shoal, indicating likely habitat compression for tuna species due to climate change. Tunas that will be most impacted by shoaling are Pacific and southern bluefin tunas-habitat compression is projected for the entire geographic range of Pacific bluefin tuna and for the spawning region of southern bluefin tuna. Vertical shifts in P50 depths will potentially influence resource partitioning among Pacific bluefin, bigeye, yellowfin, and skipjack tunas in the northern subtropical and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and the Bay of Bengal. By establishing linkages between tuna physiology and environmental conditions, we provide a mechanistic basis to project the effects of anthropogenic climate change on tuna habitats.
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Affiliation(s)
- K A S Mislan
- School of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- eScience Institute, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Curtis A Deutsch
- School of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Richard W Brill
- Department of Fisheries Science, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary, Gloucester Point, VA, USA
- Behavioral Ecology Branch, James J. Howard Marine Sciences Laboratory, NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Highlands, NJ, USA
| | - John P Dunne
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Jorge L Sarmiento
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
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14
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Blanchard JL, Watson RA, Fulton EA, Cottrell RS, Nash KL, Bryndum-Buchholz A, Büchner M, Carozza DA, Cheung WWL, Elliott J, Davidson LNK, Dulvy NK, Dunne JP, Eddy TD, Galbraith E, Lotze HK, Maury O, Müller C, Tittensor DP, Jennings S. Linked sustainability challenges and trade-offs among fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture. Nat Ecol Evol 2017; 1:1240-1249. [PMID: 29046559 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-017-0258-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 124] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2017] [Accepted: 06/28/2017] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Fisheries and aquaculture make a crucial contribution to global food security, nutrition and livelihoods. However, the UN Sustainable Development Goals separate marine and terrestrial food production sectors and ecosystems. To sustainably meet increasing global demands for fish, the interlinkages among goals within and across fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture sectors must be recognized and addressed along with their changing nature. Here, we assess and highlight development challenges for fisheries-dependent countries based on analyses of interactions and trade-offs between goals focusing on food, biodiversity and climate change. We demonstrate that some countries are likely to face double jeopardies in both fisheries and agriculture sectors under climate change. The strategies to mitigate these risks will be context-dependent, and will need to directly address the trade-offs among Sustainable Development Goals, such as halting biodiversity loss and reducing poverty. Countries with low adaptive capacity but increasing demand for food require greater support and capacity building to transition towards reconciling trade-offs. Necessary actions are context-dependent and include effective governance, improved management and conservation, maximizing societal and environmental benefits from trade, increased equitability of distribution and innovation in food production, including continued development of low input and low impact aquaculture.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julia L Blanchard
- Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies (IMAS), University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-49, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia. .,Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-49, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia.
| | - Reg A Watson
- Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies (IMAS), University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-49, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia.,Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-49, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia
| | - Elizabeth A Fulton
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-49, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia.,CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia
| | - Richard S Cottrell
- Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies (IMAS), University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-49, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia.,Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-49, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia
| | - Kirsty L Nash
- Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies (IMAS), University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-49, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia.,Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-49, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia
| | | | - Matthias Büchner
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A31, 14473, Potsdam, Germany
| | - David A Carozza
- Department of Mathematics, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Canada
| | - William W L Cheung
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, AERL, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Joshua Elliott
- University of Chicago Computation Institute, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA
| | - Lindsay N K Davidson
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada
| | - Nicholas K Dulvy
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada
| | - John P Dunne
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, 08540, USA
| | - Tyler D Eddy
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, PO Box 15000, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada.,Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, AERL, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Eric Galbraith
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA) and Department of Mathematics, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, 08193, Spain.,ICREA, Pg. Lluís Companys 23, 08010, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Heike K Lotze
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, PO Box 15000, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Olivier Maury
- IRD, UMR 248 MARBEC, Av Jean Monnet CS 30171, 34203, SETE cedex, France
| | - Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A31, 14473, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Derek P Tittensor
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, UK
| | - Simon Jennings
- Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Lowestoft Laboratory, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT, UK.,School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK.,International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, H.C. Andersens Blvd 44-46, 1553, København V, Denmark
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15
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Lee YJ, Matrai PA, Friedrichs MAM, Saba VS, Aumont O, Babin M, Buitenhuis ET, Chevallier M, de Mora L, Dessert M, Dunne JP, Ellingsen IH, Feldman D, Frouin R, Gehlen M, Gorgues T, Ilyina T, Jin M, John JG, Lawrence J, Manizza M, Menkes CE, Perruche C, Le Fouest V, Popova EE, Romanou A, Samuelsen A, Schwinger J, Séférian R, Stock CA, Tjiputra J, Tremblay LB, Ueyoshi K, Vichi M, Yool A, Zhang J. Net primary productivity estimates and environmental variables in the Arctic Ocean: An assessment of coupled physical-biogeochemical models. J Geophys Res Oceans 2016; 121:8635-8669. [PMID: 32818130 PMCID: PMC7430529 DOI: 10.1002/2016jc011993] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
The relative skill of 21 regional and global biogeochemical models was assessed in terms of how well the models reproduced observed net primary productivity (NPP) and environmental variables such as nitrate concentration (NO3), mixed layer depth (MLD), euphotic layer depth (Zeu), and sea ice concentration, by comparing results against a newly updated, quality-controlled in situ NPP database for the Arctic Ocean (1959-2011). The models broadly captured the spatial features of integrated NPP (iNPP) on a pan-Arctic scale. Most models underestimated iNPP by varying degrees in spite of overestimating surface NO3, MLD, and Zeu throughout the regions. Among the models, iNPP exhibited little difference over sea ice condition (ice-free versus ice-influenced) and bottom depth (shelf versus deep ocean). The models performed relatively well for the most recent decade and toward the end of Arctic summer. In the Barents and Greenland Seas, regional model skill of surface NO3 was best associated with how well MLD was reproduced. Regionally, iNPP was relatively well simulated in the Beaufort Sea and the central Arctic Basin, where in situ NPP is low and nutrients are mostly depleted. Models performed less well at simulating iNPP in the Greenland and Chukchi Seas, despite the higher model skill in MLD and sea ice concentration, respectively. iNPP model skill was constrained by different factors in different Arctic Ocean regions. Our study suggests that better parameterization of biological and ecological microbial rates (phytoplankton growth and zooplankton grazing) are needed for improved Arctic Ocean biogeochemical modeling.
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Affiliation(s)
- Younjoo J Lee
- Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, East Boothbay, Maine, USA
- Now at Department of Oceanography, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, USA
| | | | - Marjorie A M Friedrichs
- Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William and Mary, Gloucester Point, Virginia, USA
| | - Vincent S Saba
- National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
| | - Olivier Aumont
- Laboratoire Océan, Climat, Exploitation et Application Numérique/Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France
| | - Marcel Babin
- Takuvik Joint International Laboratory, CNRS-Université Laval, Québec, Canada
| | - Erik T Buitenhuis
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
| | - Matthieu Chevallier
- Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Unite mixte de recherche 3589 Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France
| | | | - Morgane Dessert
- Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale CNRS/IFREMER/IRD/UBO, Institut Universitaire et Européen de la Mer, Plouzané, France
| | - John P Dunne
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
| | | | - Doron Feldman
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA
| | - Robert Frouin
- Climate, Atmospheric Science, and Physical Oceanography Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Marion Gehlen
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement/Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Thomas Gorgues
- Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale CNRS/IFREMER/IRD/UBO, Institut Universitaire et Européen de la Mer, Plouzané, France
| | | | - Meibing Jin
- International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA
- Laboratoty for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China
| | - Jasmin G John
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
| | - Jon Lawrence
- National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Manfredi Manizza
- Geosciences Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Christophe E Menkes
- Laboratoire Océan, Climat, Exploitation et Application Numérique/Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France
| | | | - Vincent Le Fouest
- LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés, Université de La Rochelle, La Rochelle, France
| | - Ekaterina E Popova
- National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Anastasia Romanou
- Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA
| | - Annette Samuelsen
- Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre and Hjort Centre for Marine Ecosystem Dynamics, Bergen, Norway
| | - Jörg Schwinger
- Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
| | - Roland Séférian
- Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Unite mixte de recherche 3589 Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France
| | - Charles A Stock
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
| | - Jerry Tjiputra
- Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
| | - L Bruno Tremblay
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Canada
| | - Kyozo Ueyoshi
- Climate, Atmospheric Science, and Physical Oceanography Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Marcello Vichi
- Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
- Marine Research Institute, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Andrew Yool
- National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Jinlun Zhang
- Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
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16
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Affiliation(s)
- K. A. S. Mislan
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University; 300 Forrestal Road Princeton NJ 08540 USA
| | - John P. Dunne
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; 201 Forrestal Road Princeton NJ 08540 USA
| | - Jorge L. Sarmiento
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University; 300 Forrestal Road Princeton NJ 08540 USA
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17
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Logan CA, Dunne JP, Eakin CM, Donner SD. Incorporating adaptive responses into future projections of coral bleaching. Glob Chang Biol 2014; 20:125-39. [PMID: 24038982 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12390] [Citation(s) in RCA: 66] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2013] [Revised: 07/19/2013] [Accepted: 07/30/2013] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Climate warming threatens to increase mass coral bleaching events, and several studies have projected the demise of tropical coral reefs this century. However, recent evidence indicates corals may be able to respond to thermal stress though adaptive processes (e.g., genetic adaptation, acclimatization, and symbiont shuffling). How these mechanisms might influence warming-induced bleaching remains largely unknown. This study compared how different adaptive processes could affect coral bleaching projections. We used the latest bias-corrected global sea surface temperature (SST) output from the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model 2 (ESM2M) for the preindustrial period through 2100 to project coral bleaching trajectories. Initial results showed that, in the absence of adaptive processes, application of a preindustrial climatology to the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method overpredicts the present-day bleaching frequency. This suggests that corals may have already responded adaptively to some warming over the industrial period. We then modified the prediction method so that the bleaching threshold either permanently increased in response to thermal history (e.g., simulating directional genetic selection) or temporarily increased for 2-10 years in response to a bleaching event (e.g., simulating symbiont shuffling). A bleaching threshold that changes relative to the preceding 60 years of thermal history reduced the frequency of mass bleaching events by 20-80% compared with the 'no adaptive response' prediction model by 2100, depending on the emissions scenario. When both types of adaptive responses were applied, up to 14% more reef cells avoided high-frequency bleaching by 2100. However, temporary increases in bleaching thresholds alone only delayed the occurrence of high-frequency bleaching by ca. 10 years in all but the lowest emissions scenario. Future research should test the rate and limit of different adaptive responses for coral species across latitudes and ocean basins to determine if and how much corals can respond to increasing thermal stress.
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18
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Woodworth-Jefcoats PA, Polovina JJ, Dunne JP, Blanchard JL. Ecosystem size structure response to 21st century climate projection: large fish abundance decreases in the central North Pacific and increases in the California Current. Glob Chang Biol 2013; 19:724-733. [PMID: 23504830 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12076] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2012] [Revised: 09/18/2012] [Accepted: 10/19/2012] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Output from an earth system model is paired with a size-based food web model to investigate the effects of climate change on the abundance of large fish over the 21st century. The earth system model, forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special report on emission scenario A2, combines a coupled climate model with a biogeochemical model including major nutrients, three phytoplankton functional groups, and zooplankton grazing. The size-based food web model includes linkages between two size-structured pelagic communities: primary producers and consumers. Our investigation focuses on seven sites in the North Pacific, each highlighting a specific aspect of projected climate change, and includes top-down ecosystem depletion through fishing. We project declines in large fish abundance ranging from 0 to 75.8% in the central North Pacific and increases of up to 43.0% in the California Current (CC) region over the 21st century in response to change in phytoplankton size structure and direct physiological effects. We find that fish abundance is especially sensitive to projected changes in large phytoplankton density and our model projects changes in the abundance of large fish being of the same order of magnitude as changes in the abundance of large phytoplankton. Thus, studies that address only climate-induced impacts to primary production without including changes to phytoplankton size structure may not adequately project ecosystem responses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ryan R Rykaczewski
- University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307-3000 USA.
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20
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Boutain M, Duckett SB, Dunne JP, Godard C, Hernández JM, Holmes AJ, Khazal IG, López-Serrano J. A parahydrogen based NMR study of Pt catalysed alkyne hydrogenation. Dalton Trans 2010; 39:3495-500. [DOI: 10.1039/b925196k] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
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Rodgers KB, Key RM, Gnanadesikan A, Sarmiento JL, Aumont O, Bopp L, Doney SC, Dunne JP, Glover DM, Ishida A, Ishii M, Jacobson AR, Lo Monaco C, Maier-Reimer E, Mercier H, Metzl N, Pérez FF, Rios AF, Wanninkhof R, Wetzel P, Winn CD, Yamanaka Y. Using altimetry to help explain patchy changes in hydrographic carbon measurements. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2009. [DOI: 10.1029/2008jc005183] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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López-Serrano J, Duckett SB, Dunne JP, Godard C, Whitwood AC. Palladium catalysed alkyne hydrogenation and oligomerisation: a parahydrogen based NMR investigation. Dalton Trans 2008:4270-81. [DOI: 10.1039/b804162h] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
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López-Serrano J, Duckett SB, Aiken S, Almeida Leñero KQ, Drent E, Dunne JP, Konya D, Whitwood AC. A para-Hydrogen Investigation of Palladium-Catalyzed Alkyne Hydrogenation. J Am Chem Soc 2007; 129:6513-27. [PMID: 17469823 DOI: 10.1021/ja070331c] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
The complexes [Pd(bcope)(OTf)2] (1a), where bcope is (C8H14)PCH2-CH2P(C8H14), and [Pd(tbucope)(OTf)2] (1b), where tbucope is (C8H14)PC6H4CH2P(tBu)2, catalyze the conversion of diphenylacetylene to cis- and trans-stilbene and 1,2-diphenylethane. When this reaction was studied with para-hydrogen, the characterization of [Pd(bcope)(CHPhCH2Ph)](OTf) (2a) and [Pd(tbucope)(CHPhCH2Ph)](OTf) (2b) was achieved. Magnetization transfer from the alpha-H of the CHPhCH2Ph ligands in these species proceeds into trans-stilbene. This process has a rate constant of 0.53 s-1 at 300 K in methanol-d4 for 2a, where DeltaH = 42 +/- 9 kJ mol-1 and DeltaS = -107 +/- 31 J mol-1 K-1, but in CD2Cl2 the corresponding rate constant is 0.18 s-1, with DeltaH = 79 +/- 7 kJ mol-1 and DeltaS = 5 +/- 24 J mol-1 K-1. The analogous process for 2b was too fast to monitor in methanol, but in CD2Cl2 the rate constant for trans-stilbene formation is 1.04 s-1 at 300 K, with DeltaH = 94 +/- 6 kJ mol-1 and DeltaS = 69 +/- 22 J mol-1 K-1. Magnetization transfer from one of the two inequivalent beta-H sites of the CHPhCH2Ph moiety proceeds into trans-stilbene, while the other site shows transfer into H2 or, to a lesser extent, cis-stilbene in CD2Cl2, but in methanol it proceeds into the vinyl cations [Pd(bcope)(CPh=CHPh)(MeOD)](OTf) (3a) and [Pd(tbucope)(CPh=CHPh)(MeOD)](OTf) (3b). When the same magnetization transfer processes are monitored for 1a in methanol-d4 containing 5 microL of pyridine, transfer into trans-stilbene is observed for two sites of the alkyl, but the third proton now becomes a hydride ligand in [Pd(bcope)(H)(pyridine)](OTf) (5a) or a vinyl proton in [Pd(bcope)(CPh=CHPh)(pyridine)](OTf) (4a). For 1b, under the same conditions, two isomers of [Pd(tbucope)(H)(pyridine)](OTf) (5b and 5b') and the neutral dihydride [Pd(tbucope)(H)2] (7) are detected. The single vinylic CH proton in 3 and the hydride ligands in 4 and 5 appear as strong emission signals in the corresponding 1H NMR spectra.
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Deutsch C, Sarmiento JL, Sigman DM, Gruber N, Dunne JP. Spatial coupling of nitrogen inputs and losses in the ocean. Nature 2007; 445:163-7. [PMID: 17215838 DOI: 10.1038/nature05392] [Citation(s) in RCA: 159] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2006] [Accepted: 11/07/2006] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
Nitrogen fixation is crucial for maintaining biological productivity in the oceans, because it replaces the biologically available nitrogen that is lost through denitrification. But, owing to its temporal and spatial variability, the global distribution of marine nitrogen fixation is difficult to determine from direct shipboard measurements. This uncertainty limits our understanding of the factors that influence nitrogen fixation, which may include iron, nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratios, and physical conditions such as temperature. Here we determine nitrogen fixation rates in the world's oceans through their impact on nitrate and phosphate concentrations in surface waters, using an ocean circulation model. Our results indicate that nitrogen fixation rates are highest in the Pacific Ocean, where water column denitrification rates are high but the rate of atmospheric iron deposition is low. We conclude that oceanic nitrogen fixation is closely tied to the generation of nitrogen-deficient waters in denitrification zones, supporting the view that nitrogen fixation stabilizes the oceanic inventory of fixed nitrogen over time.
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Affiliation(s)
- Curtis Deutsch
- Program on Climate Change, School of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195, USA.
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Malacea R, Manoury E, Routaboul L, Daran JC, Poli R, Dunne JP, Withwood AC, Godard C, Duckett SB. Coordination Chemistry and Diphenylacetylene Hydrogenation Catalysis of Planar Chiral Ferrocenylphosphane-Thioether Ligands with Cyclooctadieneiridium(I). Eur J Inorg Chem 2006. [DOI: 10.1002/ejic.200600065] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
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Blazina D, Dunne JP, Aiken S, Duckett SB, Elkington C, McGrady JE, Poli R, Walton SJ, Anwar MS, Jones JA, Carteret HA. Contrasting photochemical and thermal reactivity of Ru(CO)2(PPh3)(dppe) towards hydrogen rationalised by parahydrogen NMR and DFT studies. Dalton Trans 2006:2072-80. [PMID: 16625251 DOI: 10.1039/b510616h] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
The synthesis, characterisation and thermal and photochemical reactivity of Ru(CO)2(PPh3)(dppe) 1 towards hydrogen are described. Compound proved to exist in both fac (major) and mer forms in solution. Under thermal conditions, PPh3 is lost from 1 in the major reaction pathway and the known complex Ru(CO)2(dppe)(H)2 2 is formed. Photochemically, CO loss is the dominant process, leading to the alternative dihydride Ru(CO)(PPh3)(dppe)(H)2 3. The major isomer of 3, viz. 3a, contains hydride ligands that are trans to CO and trans to one of the phosphorus atoms of the dppe ligand but a second isomer, 3b, where both hydride ligands are trans to distinct phosphines, is also formed. On the NMR timescale, no interconversion of 3a and 3b was observed, although hydride site interchange is evident with activation parameters of DeltaH(double dagger) = 95 +/- 6 kJ mol(-1) and DeltaS(double dagger) = 26 +/- 17 J K(-1) mol(-1). Density functional theory confirms that the observed species are the most stable isomeric forms, and suggests that hydride exchange occurs via a transition state featuring an eta2-coordinated H2 unit.
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Affiliation(s)
- Damir Blazina
- Department of Chemistry, University of York, Heslington, York, UKYO10 5DD
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Malacea R, Daran JC, Duckett SB, Dunne JP, Godard C, Manoury E, Poli R, Whitwood AC. Parahydrogen studies of H2addition to Ir(i) complexes containing chiral phosphine–thioether ligands: implications for catalysis. Dalton Trans 2006:3350-9. [PMID: 16820847 DOI: 10.1039/b601980c] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
Ir(CO)[CpFe{eta5-C5H3(PPh2)CH2SR}]Cl [R = Ph and (t)Bu], containing a kappa2:P,S ligand, undergoes H2 addition across the S-Ir-CO axis under kinetic control to form two distinct diastereoisomeric products, which then rearrange via S dissociation in a process that can be hijacked for useful catalysis, but ultimately form a single diastereoisomer of the thermodynamic product where the hydride ligands are trans to chloride and phosphine.
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Affiliation(s)
- Raluca Malacea
- Laboratoire de Chimie de Coordination, CNRS, 205 Route de Narbonne, 31077, Toulouse Cedex, France
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Dunne JP, Aiken S, Duckett SB, Konya D, Almeida Leñero KQ, Drent E. Detection and Reactivity of Pd((C8H14)PCH2CH2P(C8H14))(CHPhCH2Ph)(H) as Determined by Parahydrogen-Enhanced NMR Spectroscopy. J Am Chem Soc 2004; 126:16708-9. [PMID: 15612693 DOI: 10.1021/ja044875f] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Pd(bcope)(OTf)2 (where bcope is (C8H14)PCH2CH2P(C8H14)) is shown to react with an alkyne in the presence of parahydrogen to form alkyl hydrides, such as Pd(bcope)(CHPhCH2Ph)(H), that are detectable by NMR spectroscopy because the proton resonances of the alkyl arm appear with strongly enhanced signal strengths.
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Affiliation(s)
- J P Dunne
- Department of Chemistry, University of York, Heslington, York YO10 5DD, United Kingdom
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Sarmiento JL, Gruber N, Brzezinski MA, Dunne JP. High-latitude controls of thermocline nutrients and low latitude biological productivity. Nature 2004; 427:56-60. [PMID: 14702082 DOI: 10.1038/nature02127] [Citation(s) in RCA: 154] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2003] [Accepted: 10/08/2003] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
The ocean's biological pump strips nutrients out of the surface waters and exports them into the thermocline and deep waters. If there were no return path of nutrients from deep waters, the biological pump would eventually deplete the surface waters and thermocline of nutrients; surface biological productivity would plummet. Here we make use of the combined distributions of silicic acid and nitrate to trace the main nutrient return path from deep waters by upwelling in the Southern Ocean and subsequent entrainment into subantarctic mode water. We show that the subantarctic mode water, which spreads throughout the entire Southern Hemisphere and North Atlantic Ocean, is the main source of nutrients for the thermocline. We also find that an additional return path exists in the northwest corner of the Pacific Ocean, where enhanced vertical mixing, perhaps driven by tides, brings abyssal nutrients to the surface and supplies them to the thermocline of the North Pacific. Our analysis has important implications for our understanding of large-scale controls on the nature and magnitude of low-latitude biological productivity and its sensitivity to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- J L Sarmiento
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, USA.
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Fox S, Dunne JP, Tacke M, Gallagher JF. Novel derivatives of ansa-titanocenes procured from 6-phenylfulvene: a combined experimental and theoretical study. Inorganica Chim Acta 2004. [DOI: 10.1016/s0020-1693(03)00496-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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Abstract
The study of reaction mechanisms by NMR spectroscopy normally suffers from limitations in sensitivity that arise from the physical constraints of the detection method. An overview is presented of how chemical reactions can be studied using parahydrogen assisted NMR spectroscopy where detected signal strengths can exceed those normally seen by factors of over 28,000.
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Affiliation(s)
- Damir Blazina
- Department of Chemistry, University of York, Heslington, York, UK
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Dunne JP, Blazina D, Aiken S, Carteret HA, Duckett SB, Jones JA, Poli R, Whitwood AC. A combined parahydrogen and theoretical study of H2 activation by 16-electron d8 ruthenium(0) complexes and their subsequent catalytic behaviour. Dalton Trans 2004:3616-28. [PMID: 15510285 DOI: 10.1039/b410912k] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
Abstract
The photochemical reaction of Ru(CO)(3)(L)(2), where L = PPh(3), PMe(3), PCy(3) and P(p-tolyl)(3) with parahydrogen (p-H(2)) has been studied by in-situ NMR spectroscopy and shown to result in two competing processes. The first of these involves loss of CO and results in the formation of the cis-cis-trans-L isomer of Ru(CO)(2)(L)(2)(H)(2), while in the second, a single photon induces loss of both CO and L and leads to the formation of cis-cis-cis Ru(CO)(2)(L)(2)(H)(2) and Ru(CO)(2)(L)(solvent)(H)(2) where solvent = toluene, THF and pyridine (py). In the case of L = PPh(3), cis-cis-trans-L Ru(CO)(2)(L)(2)(H)(2) is shown to be an effective hydrogenation catalyst with rate limiting phosphine dissociation proceeding at a rate of 2.2 s(-1) in pyridine at 355 K. Theoretical calculations and experimental observations show that H(2) addition to the Ru(CO)(2)(L)(2) proceeds to form cis-cis-trans-L Ru(CO)(2)(L)(2)(H)(2) as the major product via addition over the pi-accepting OC-Ru-CO axis.
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Tacke M, Dunne JP, El-Gamati, Fox S, Rous A, Cuffe LP. Matrix effect found in the reaction of GaCl with HCl: application of the Onsager model to describe interactions between matrices and matrix isolated species. J Mol Struct 1999. [DOI: 10.1016/s0022-2860(98)00618-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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