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Galbraith ED, Barrington-Leigh C, Miñarro S, Álvarez-Fernández S, Attoh EMNAN, Benyei P, Calvet-Mir L, Carmona R, Chakauya R, Chen Z, Chengula F, Fernández-Llamazares Á, García-del-Amo D, Glauser M, Huanca T, Izquierdo AE, Junqueira AB, Lanker M, Li X, Mariel J, Miara MD, Porcher V, Porcuna-Ferrer A, Schlingmann A, Seidler R, Shrestha UB, Singh P, Torrents-Ticó M, Ulambayar T, Wu R, Reyes-García V. High life satisfaction reported among small-scale societies with low incomes. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2311703121. [PMID: 38315863 PMCID: PMC10873637 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2311703121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2023] [Accepted: 12/08/2023] [Indexed: 02/07/2024] Open
Abstract
Global polls have shown that people in high-income countries generally report being more satisfied with their lives than people in low-income countries. The persistence of this correlation, and its similarity to correlations between income and life satisfaction within countries, could lead to the impression that high levels of life satisfaction can only be achieved in wealthy societies. However, global polls have typically overlooked small-scale, nonindustrialized societies, which can provide an alternative test of the consistency of this relationship. Here, we present results from a survey of 2,966 members of Indigenous Peoples and local communities among 19 globally distributed sites. We find that high average levels of life satisfaction, comparable to those of wealthy countries, are reported for numerous populations that have very low monetary incomes. Our results are consistent with the notion that human societies can support very satisfying lives for their members without necessarily requiring high degrees of monetary wealth.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eric D. Galbraith
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona08193, Spain
- ICREA, Barcelona08010, Spain
- Department of Earth and Planetary Science, McGill University, Montréal, QCH3A0E8, Canada
| | - Christopher Barrington-Leigh
- Department of Equity, Ethics, and Policy, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, Montréal, QCH3A 1G1, Canada
- Bieler School of Environment, McGill University, Montréal, QCH3A 2A7, Canada
| | - Sara Miñarro
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona08193, Spain
| | - Santiago Álvarez-Fernández
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona08193, Spain
| | - Emmanuel M. N. A. N. Attoh
- Water Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen 6700 HB, Netherlands
- International Water Management Institute, Colombo10120, Sri Lanka
| | - Petra Benyei
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona08193, Spain
- Instituto de Economía, Geografía y Demografía, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Madrid28037, Spain
| | - Laura Calvet-Mir
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona08193, Spain
- Institut Metròpoli, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona08193, Spain
| | - Rosario Carmona
- Center for Integrated Disaster Risk Management, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago8331150, Chile
| | - Rumbidzayi Chakauya
- College of Agriculture and Environmental Science, University of South Africa, Florida, 1710Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Zhuo Chen
- Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Helsinki, HelsinkiFI-00014, Finland
| | - Fasco Chengula
- Institute of Resource Assessment, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam16103, Tanzania
| | - Álvaro Fernández-Llamazares
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona08193, Spain
- Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science, University of Helsinki, HelsinkiFI-00014, Finland
| | - David García-del-Amo
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona08193, Spain
| | | | - Tomas Huanca
- Boliviano de Investigación y de Desarrollo Socio Integral, San Borja, Bolivia
| | - Andrea E. Izquierdo
- Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas-Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Córdoba5000, Argentina
| | - André B. Junqueira
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona08193, Spain
| | - Marisa Lanker
- The Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI53706
| | - Xiaoyue Li
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona08193, Spain
| | - Juliette Mariel
- Centre de coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD), Unité Mixte de Recherche Savoirs-Environnement-Sociétés (UMR SENS), Montpellier34398, France
| | - Mohamed D. Miara
- Department of Nature and Life Sciences, Ibn Khaldoun University, Tiaret14000, Algeria
- Laboratory of Agro-Biotechnology and Nutrition Research in Semi-Arid Areas, Ibn Khaldoun University, Tiaret14000, Algeria
| | - Vincent Porcher
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona08193, Spain
| | - Anna Porcuna-Ferrer
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona08193, Spain
- Centre de coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD), Unité Mixte de Recherche Savoirs-Environnement-Sociétés (UMR SENS), Montpellier34398, France
| | - Anna Schlingmann
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona08193, Spain
| | - Reinmar Seidler
- Department of Biology, University of Massachusetts, Boston, MA02215
| | | | - Priyatma Singh
- School of Science and Technology, University of Fiji, Saweni, Lautoka, Fiji
| | - Miquel Torrents-Ticó
- Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science, University of Helsinki, HelsinkiFI-00014, Finland
- Global Change and Conservation, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, University of Helsinki, HelsinkiFI-00014, Finland
| | - Tungalag Ulambayar
- Zoological Society of London, Mongolia Representative Office, Ulaanbaatar14201, Mongolia
| | - Rihan Wu
- Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Peking University, Beijing100871, China
- Norwegian Institute for Cultural Heritage Research, Oslo0155, Norway
| | - Victoria Reyes-García
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona08193, Spain
- ICREA, Barcelona08010, Spain
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Hatton IA, Galbraith ED, Merleau NSC, Miettinen TP, Smith BM, Shander JA. The human cell count and size distribution. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2303077120. [PMID: 37722043 PMCID: PMC10523466 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2303077120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2023] [Accepted: 07/24/2023] [Indexed: 09/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Cell size and cell count are adaptively regulated and intimately linked to growth and function. Yet, despite their widespread relevance, the relation between cell size and count has never been formally examined over the whole human body. Here, we compile a comprehensive dataset of cell size and count over all major cell types, with data drawn from >1,500 published sources. We consider the body of a representative male (70 kg), which allows further estimates of a female (60 kg) and 10-y-old child (32 kg). We build a hierarchical interface for the cellular organization of the body, giving easy access to data, methods, and sources (https://humancelltreemap.mis.mpg.de/). In total, we estimate total body counts of ≈36 trillion cells in the male, ≈28 trillion in the female, and ≈17 trillion in the child. These data reveal a surprising inverse relation between cell size and count, implying a trade-off between these variables, such that all cells within a given logarithmic size class contribute an equal fraction to the body's total cellular biomass. We also find that the coefficient of variation is approximately independent of mean cell size, implying the existence of cell-size regulation across cell types. Our data serve to establish a holistic quantitative framework for the cells of the human body, and highlight large-scale patterns in cell biology.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ian A. Hatton
- Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Leipzig04103, Germany
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, QuebecH3A 0E8, Canada
| | - Eric D. Galbraith
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, QuebecH3A 0E8, Canada
- ICREA, Barcelona08010, Spain
| | - Nono S. C. Merleau
- Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Leipzig04103, Germany
- Center for Scalable Data Analytics and Artificial Intelligence, University of Leipzig, D-04105Leipzig, Germany
| | - Teemu P. Miettinen
- Koch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA02139
| | - Benjamin McDonald Smith
- Department of Medicine, McGill University Health Centre Research Institute, Montreal, QuebecH4A 3S5, Canada
- Department of Medicine, Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY10032
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Fajzel W, Galbraith ED, Barrington-Leigh C, Charmes J, Frie E, Hatton I, Le Mézo P, Milo R, Minor K, Wan X, Xia V, Xu S. The global human day. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2219564120. [PMID: 37307470 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2219564120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2022] [Accepted: 04/18/2023] [Indexed: 06/14/2023] Open
Abstract
The daily activities of ≈8 billion people occupy exactly 24 h per day, placing a strict physical limit on what changes can be achieved in the world. These activities form the basis of human behavior, and because of the global integration of societies and economies, many of these activities interact across national borders. Yet, there is no comprehensive overview of how the finite resource of time is allocated at the global scale. Here, we estimate how all humans spend their time using a generalized, physical outcome-based categorization that facilitates the integration of data from hundreds of diverse datasets. Our compilation shows that most waking hours are spent on activities intended to achieve direct outcomes for human minds and bodies (9.4 h/d), while 3.4 h/d are spent modifying our inhabited environments and the world beyond. The remaining 2.1 h/d are devoted to organizing social processes and transportation. We distinguish activities that vary strongly with GDP per capita, including the time allocated to food provision and infrastructure, vs. those that do not vary consistently, such as meals and transportation time. Globally, the time spent directly extracting materials and energy from the Earth system is small, on the order of 5 min per average human day, while the time directly dealing with waste is on the order of 1 min per day, suggesting a large potential scope to modify the allocation of time to these activities. Our results provide a baseline quantification of the temporal composition of global human life that can be expanded and applied to multiple fields of research.
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Affiliation(s)
- William Fajzel
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montréal, QC H3A 0E8, Canada
| | - Eric D Galbraith
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montréal, QC H3A 0E8, Canada
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Autonomous University of Barcelona, 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Christopher Barrington-Leigh
- Institute for Health and Social Policy, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, McGill University, Montréal, QC H3A 1G1, Canada
- Bieler School of Environment, McGill University, Montréal, QC H3A 2A7, Canada
| | - Jacques Charmes
- Centre for Population and Development, Institute of Research for Development, University of Paris, 75006 Paris, France
| | - Elena Frie
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montréal, QC H3A 0E8, Canada
| | - Ian Hatton
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montréal, QC H3A 0E8, Canada
| | - Priscilla Le Mézo
- Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Ecole Normale Supérieure Ulm, 75006 Paris, France
| | - Ron Milo
- Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot 76100, Israel
| | - Kelton Minor
- Data Science Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027
| | - Xinbei Wan
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC H3A 1Y7, Canada
- Institute of Public Health, Epidemiology, and Development, College of Health Sciences, Université de Bordeaux, Bordeaux 33076, France
| | - Veronica Xia
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montréal, QC H3A 0E8, Canada
| | - Shirley Xu
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montréal, QC H3A 0E8, Canada
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4
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Miñarro S, Selim S, Galbraith ED. Does catching more fish increase the subjective well-being of fishers? Insights from Bangladesh. Ambio 2022; 51:1673-1686. [PMID: 35167047 PMCID: PMC9110605 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-021-01698-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2021] [Revised: 11/07/2021] [Accepted: 12/23/2021] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Small-scale fisheries have been associated with the subjective well-being of coastal communities through their links with culture, identity, and social cohesion. But although fish catches are usually considered the primary ecosystem service that benefits fishers, little is known about how subjective well-being is influenced by the fishing activity itself. Here, we applied the experience sampling method in two small-scale fisheries in Bangladesh to assess the effects of fishing on fishers' occurrence of positive and negative affect, two measures of subjective well-being. We found that fishing activities were not directly associated with increased momentary affect and that the frequency of positive affect actually decreased as the fishing trip progressed. Furthermore, although very low catches were associated with less positive affect, the highest frequency of positive affect was achieved with relatively small catches. Our results imply that the benefits provided by small-scale fisheries to the momentary subjective well-being of fishers are not strongly related to the actual catching of fish.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sara Miñarro
- Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Building Z-Office 137, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona Spain
| | - Samiya Selim
- Centre for Sustainable Development, University of Liberal Arts (CSD-ULAB), House 56, Road 4/a, Dhanmondi, Dhaka, 1209 Bangladesh
- Leibniz Centre for Tropical Marine Research (ZMT), Bremen, Germany
| | - Eric D. Galbraith
- Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Building Z-Office 137, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona Spain
- Institució Catalana de Recerca I Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, 3450 University Street, Montreal, QC H3A 0E8 Canada
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5
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Hatton IA, Heneghan RF, Bar-On YM, Galbraith ED. The global ocean size spectrum from bacteria to whales. Sci Adv 2021; 7:eabh3732. [PMID: 34757796 PMCID: PMC8580314 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abh3732] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2021] [Accepted: 09/14/2021] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
It has long been hypothesized that aquatic biomass is evenly distributed among logarithmic body mass size classes. Although this community structure has been observed regionally, mostly among plankton groups, its generality has never been formally tested across all marine life over the global ocean, nor have the impacts of humans on it been globally assessed. Here, we bring together data at the global scale to test the hypothesis from bacteria to whales. We find that biomass within most order of magnitude size classes is indeed remarkably constant, near 1 gigatonne (Gt) wet weight (1015 g), but bacteria and large marine mammals are markedly above and below this value, respectively. Furthermore, human impacts appear to have significantly truncated the upper one-third of the spectrum. This dramatic alteration to what is possibly life’s largest-scale regularity underscores the global extent of human activities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ian A. Hatton
- Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Leipzig 04103, Germany
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Ryan F. Heneghan
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QD 4000, Australia
| | - Yinon M. Bar-On
- Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, 76100 Rehovot, Israel
| | - Eric D. Galbraith
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, QC H3A 0E8, Canada
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6
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Bianchi D, Carozza DA, Galbraith ED, Guiet J, DeVries T. Estimating global biomass and biogeochemical cycling of marine fish with and without fishing. Sci Adv 2021; 7:eabd7554. [PMID: 34623923 PMCID: PMC8500507 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abd7554] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
The biomass and biogeochemical roles of fish in the ocean are ecologically important but poorly known. Here, we use a data-constrained marine ecosystem model to provide a first-order estimate of the historical reduction of fish biomass due to fishing and the associated change in biogeochemical cycling rates. The pre-exploitation global biomass of exploited fish (10 g to 100 kg) was 3.3 ± 0.5 Gt, cycling roughly 2% of global primary production (9.4 ± 1.6 Gt year−1) and producing 10% of surface biological export. Particulate organic matter produced by exploited fish drove roughly 10% of the oxygen consumption and biological carbon storage at depth. By the 1990s, biomass and cycling rates had been reduced by nearly half, suggesting that the biogeochemical impact of fisheries has been comparable to that of anthropogenic climate change. Our results highlight the importance of developing a better mechanistic understanding of how fish alter ocean biogeochemistry.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniele Bianchi
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
- Corresponding author.
| | - David A. Carozza
- Département de Mathématiques, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Eric D. Galbraith
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA-UAB), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, Spain
- Department of Earth and Planetary Science, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Jérôme Guiet
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA-UAB), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Timothy DeVries
- Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
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7
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Miñarro S, Reyes-García V, Aswani S, Selim S, Barrington-Leigh CP, Galbraith ED. Happy without money: Minimally monetized societies can exhibit high subjective well-being. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0244569. [PMID: 33439863 PMCID: PMC7806144 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0244569] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2020] [Accepted: 12/13/2020] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Economic growth is often assumed to improve happiness for people in low income countries, although the association between monetary income and subjective well-being has been a subject of debate. We test this assumption by comparing three different measures of subjective well-being in very low-income communities with different levels of monetization. Contrary to expectations, all three measures of subjective well-being were very high in the least-monetized sites and comparable to those found among citizens of wealthy nations. The reported drivers of happiness shifted with increasing monetization: from enjoying experiential activities in contact with nature at the less monetized sites, to social and economic factors at the more monetized sites. Our results suggest that high levels of subjective well-being can be achieved with minimal monetization, challenging the perception that economic growth will raise life satisfaction among low income populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sara Miñarro
- Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain
- * E-mail:
| | - Victoria Reyes-García
- Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain
- Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Shankar Aswani
- Department of Anthropology and Department of Ichthyology and Fisheries Science (DIFS), Rhodes University, Grahamstown, South Africa
| | - Samiya Selim
- Centre for Sustainable Development, University of Liberal Arts (CSD-ULAB), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Christopher P. Barrington-Leigh
- Institute for Health and Social Policy, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- McGill School of Environment, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Eric D. Galbraith
- Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain
- Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
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8
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Tittensor DP, Novaglio C, Harrison CS, Heneghan RF, Barrier N, Bianchi D, Bopp L, Bryndum-Buchholz A, Britten GL, Büchner M, Cheung WWL, Christensen V, Coll M, Dunne JP, Eddy TD, Everett JD, Fernandes-Salvador JA, Fulton EA, Galbraith ED, Gascuel D, Guiet J, John JG, Link JS, Lotze HK, Maury O, Ortega-Cisneros K, Palacios-Abrantes J, Petrik CM, du Pontavice H, Rault J, Richardson AJ, Shannon L, Shin YJ, Steenbeek J, Stock CA, Blanchard JL. Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems. Nat Clim Chang 2021; 11:973-981. [PMID: 34745348 PMCID: PMC8556156 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2021] [Accepted: 09/01/2021] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Derek P. Tittensor
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia Canada
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK
| | - Camilla Novaglio
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
- Center for Marine Socio-ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
| | - Cheryl S. Harrison
- School of Earth, Environmental and Marine Science, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Port Isabel, TX USA
- Department of Ocean and Coastal Science and Centre for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA USA
| | - Ryan F. Heneghan
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland Australia
| | - Nicolas Barrier
- MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France
| | - Daniele Bianchi
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA USA
| | - Laurent Bopp
- LMD/IPSL, CNRS, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France
| | | | - Gregory L. Britten
- Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA USA
| | - Matthias Büchner
- Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
| | - William W. L. Cheung
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia Canada
| | - Villy Christensen
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia Canada
| | - Marta Coll
- Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
- Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Barcelona, Spain
| | - John P. Dunne
- NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | - Tyler D. Eddy
- Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries and Marine Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador Canada
| | - Jason D. Everett
- School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, Brisbane, Queensland Australia
- Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales Australia
| | | | - Elizabeth A. Fulton
- Center for Marine Socio-ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
| | - Eric D. Galbraith
- Department of Earth and Planetary Science, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec Canada
| | - Didier Gascuel
- UMR Ecology and Ecosystems Health (ESE), Institut Agro, Inrae, Rennes, France
| | - Jerome Guiet
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA USA
| | - Jasmin G. John
- NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | | | - Heike K. Lotze
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia Canada
| | - Olivier Maury
- MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France
| | | | - Juliano Palacios-Abrantes
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia Canada
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI USA
| | - Colleen M. Petrik
- Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX USA
| | - Hubert du Pontavice
- UMR Ecology and Ecosystems Health (ESE), Institut Agro, Inrae, Rennes, France
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ USA
| | - Jonathan Rault
- MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France
| | - Anthony J. Richardson
- School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, Brisbane, Queensland Australia
| | - Lynne Shannon
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Yunne-Jai Shin
- MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France
| | - Jeroen Steenbeek
- Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Charles A. Stock
- NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | - Julia L. Blanchard
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
- Center for Marine Socio-ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
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9
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Le Mézo PK, Galbraith ED. The fecal iron pump: Global impact of animals on the iron stoichiometry of marine sinking particles. Limnol Oceanogr 2021; 66:201-213. [PMID: 33664531 PMCID: PMC7891356 DOI: 10.1002/lno.11597] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2019] [Revised: 03/16/2020] [Accepted: 08/20/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
The impact of marine animals on the iron (Fe) cycle has mostly been considered in terms of their role in supplying dissolved Fe to phytoplankton at the ocean surface. However, little attention has been paid to how the transformation of ingested food into fecal matter by animals alters the relative Fe-richness of particles, which could have consequences for Fe cycling in the water column and for the food quality of suspended and sinking particles. Here, we compile observations to show that the Fe to carbon (C) ratio (Fe:C) of fecal pellets of various marine animals is consistently enriched compared to their food, often by more than an order of magnitude. We explain this consistent enrichment by the low assimilation rates that have been measured for Fe in animals, together with the respiratory conversion of dietary organic C to excreted dissolved inorganic C. Furthermore, we calculate that this enrichment should cause animal fecal matter to constitute a major fraction of the global sinking flux of biogenic Fe, a component of the marine iron cycle that has been previously unappreciated. We also estimate that this fecal iron pump provides an important source of Fe to marine animals via coprophagy, particularly in the mesopelagic, given that fecal matter Fe:C can be many-fold higher than the Fe:C of local phytoplankton. Our results imply that the fecal iron pump is important both for global Fe cycling and for the iron nutrition of pelagic and mesopelagic communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Priscilla K. Le Mézo
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA)Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB)BarcelonaSpain
- Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) / Institut Pierre Simon LaplaceCNRS, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Université PSL, Ecole Polytechnique, Sorbonne UniversitéParisFrance
| | - Eric D. Galbraith
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA)Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB)BarcelonaSpain
- Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA)BarcelonaSpain
- Earth and Planetary SciencesMcGill UniversityMontrealQuebecCanada
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10
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Abstract
Much of the global cooling during ice ages arose from changes in ocean carbon storage that lowered atmospheric CO2. A slew of mechanisms, both physical and biological, have been proposed as key drivers of these changes. Here we discuss the current understanding of these mechanisms with a focus on how they altered the theoretically defined soft-tissue and biological disequilibrium carbon storage at the peak of the last ice age. Observations and models indicate a role for Antarctic sea ice through its influence on ocean circulation patterns, but other mechanisms, including changes in biological processes, must have been important as well, and may have been coordinated through links with global air temperature. Further research is required to better quantify the contributions of the various mechanisms, and there remains great potential to use the Last Glacial Maximum and the ensuing global warming as natural experiments from which to learn about climate-driven changes in the marine ecosystem.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eric D Galbraith
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montreal H3A 0E8, Canada;
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA-UAB), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, Spain
- Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), 08010 Barcelona, Spain
| | - Luke C Skinner
- Godwin Laboratory for Palaeoclimate Research, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EQ, United Kingdom;
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11
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Bryndum-Buchholz A, Prentice F, Tittensor DP, Blanchard JL, Cheung WW, Christensen V, Galbraith ED, Maury O, Lotze HK. Differing marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between Canada’s three oceans. Facets (Ott) 2020. [DOI: 10.1139/facets-2019-0035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Under climate change, species composition and abundances in high-latitude waters are expected to substantially reconfigure with consequences for trophic relationships and ecosystem services. Outcomes are challenging to project at national scales, despite their importance for management decisions. Using an ensemble of six global marine ecosystem models we analyzed marine ecosystem responses to climate change from 1971 to 2099 in Canada’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) under four standardized emissions scenarios. By 2099, under business-as-usual emissions (RCP8.5) projected marine animal biomass declined by an average of −7.7% (±29.5%) within the Canadian EEZ, dominated by declines in the Pacific (−24% ± 24.5%) and Atlantic (−25.5% ± 9.5%) areas; these were partially compensated by increases in the Canadian Arctic (+26.2% ± 38.4%). Lower emissions scenarios projected successively smaller biomass changes, highlighting the benefits of stronger mitigation targets. Individual model projections were most consistent in the Atlantic and Pacific, but highly variable in the Arctic due to model uncertainties in polar regions. Different trajectories of future marine biomass changes will require regional-specific responses in conservation and management strategies, such as adaptive planning of marine protected areas and species-specific management plans, to enhance resilience and rebuilding of Canada’s marine ecosystems and commercial fish stocks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Faelan Prentice
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Derek P. Tittensor
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Julia L. Blanchard
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Center for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point TAS 7004, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - William W.L. Cheung
- Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program and Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Villy Christensen
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Eric D. Galbraith
- Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), 08010 Barcelona, Spain
- Department of Mathematics, Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, 08193 Barcelona, Spain
| | - Olivier Maury
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), MARBEC (IRD, University of Montpellier, IFREMER, CNRS), 34203 Sète, France
- Department of Oceanography, Marine Research Institute, University of Cape Town, 7701 Rondebosch, South Africa
| | - Heike K. Lotze
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
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12
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Bryndum-Buchholz A, Tittensor DP, Blanchard JL, Cheung WWL, Coll M, Galbraith ED, Jennings S, Maury O, Lotze HK. Twenty-first-century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins. Glob Chang Biol 2019; 25:459-472. [PMID: 30408274 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14512] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2018] [Revised: 10/01/2018] [Accepted: 10/16/2018] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions, and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio-economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery-dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15%-30% (±12%-17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20%-80% (±35%-200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size-classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Derek P Tittensor
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK
| | - Julia L Blanchard
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, Center for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - William W L Cheung
- Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program and Changing Ocean Research Unite, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Marta Coll
- Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC) and Ecopath International Initiative, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Eric D Galbraith
- Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
- Department of Mathematics, Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Simon Jennings
- Lowestoft Laboratory, Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (CEFAS), Lowestoft, UK
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
- International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, København V, Denmark
| | - Olivier Maury
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR 248 MARBEC, Sète Cedex, France
- International Lab. ICEMASA, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa
| | - Heike K Lotze
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
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13
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Claret M, Galbraith ED, Palter JB, Bianchi D, Fennel K, Gilbert D, Dunne JP. Rapid coastal deoxygenation due to ocean circulation shift in the NW Atlantic. Nat Clim Chang 2018; 8:866-872. [PMID: 30416585 PMCID: PMC6218011 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0263-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/15/2018] [Accepted: 07/27/2018] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Global observations show that the ocean lost approximately 2% of its oxygen inventory over the last five decades 1-3, with important implications for marine ecosystems 4, 5. The rate of change varies with northwest Atlantic coastal waters showing a long-term drop 6, 7 that vastly outpaces the global and North Atlantic basin mean deoxygenation rates 5, 8. However, past work has been unable to resolve mechanisms of large-scale climate forcing from local processes. Here, we use hydrographic evidence to show a Labrador Current retreat is playing a key role in the deoxygenation on the northwest Atlantic shelf. A high-resolution global coupled climate-biogeochemistry model 9 reproduces the observed decline of saturation oxygen concentrations in the region, driven by a retreat of the equatorward-flowing Labrador Current and an associated shift toward more oxygen-poor subtropical waters on the shelf. The dynamical changes underlying the shift in shelf water properties are correlated with a slowdown in the simulated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 10. Our results provide strong evidence that a major, centennial-scale change of the Labrador Current is underway, and highlight the potential for ocean dynamics to impact coastal deoxygenation over the coming century.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mariona Claret
- Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and the Ocean, Seattle, WA, USA
- University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montréal, QC, Canada
| | - Eric D Galbraith
- Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montréal, QC, Canada
| | - Jaime B Palter
- Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI, USA
| | - Daniele Bianchi
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Katja Fennel
- Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
| | - Denis Gilbert
- Maurice Lamontagne Institute, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Mont-Joli, QC, Canada
| | - John P Dunne
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
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14
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Galbraith ED, Carozza DA, Bianchi D. A coupled human-Earth model perspective on long-term trends in the global marine fishery. Nat Commun 2017; 8:14884. [PMID: 28345669 PMCID: PMC5556735 DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14884] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/15/2016] [Accepted: 02/08/2017] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
The global wild marine fish harvest increased fourfold between 1950 and a peak value near the end of the 20th century, reflecting interactions between anthropogenic and ecological forces. Here, we examine these interactions in a bio-energetically constrained, spatially and temporally resolved model of global fisheries. We conduct historical hindcasts with the model, which suggest that technological progress can explain most of the 20th century increase of fish harvest. In contrast, projections extending this rate of technological progress into the future under open access suggest a long-term decrease in harvest due to over-fishing. Climate change is predicted to gradually decrease the global fish production capacity, though our model suggests that this is of secondary importance to social and economic factors. Our study represents a novel way to integrate human-ecological interactions within a single model framework for long-term simulations.
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Affiliation(s)
- E D Galbraith
- Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Pg. Lluís Companys 23, Barcelona 08010, Spain.,Department of Mathematics, Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona 08193, Spain.,Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Québec H3A 0E8, Canada
| | - D A Carozza
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Québec H3A 0E8, Canada.,Department of Mathematics, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Québec H3C 3P8, Canada
| | - D Bianchi
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095, USA
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15
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Carozza DA, Bianchi D, Galbraith ED. Formulation, General Features and Global Calibration of a Bioenergetically-Constrained Fishery Model. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0169763. [PMID: 28103280 PMCID: PMC5245811 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0169763] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2016] [Accepted: 12/21/2016] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Human exploitation of marine resources is profoundly altering marine ecosystems, while climate change is expected to further impact commercially-harvested fish and other species. Although the global fishery is a highly complex system with many unpredictable aspects, the bioenergetic limits on fish production and the response of fishing effort to profit are both relatively tractable, and are sure to play important roles. Here we describe a generalized, coupled biological-economic model of the global marine fishery that represents both of these aspects in a unified framework, the BiOeconomic mArine Trophic Size-spectrum (BOATS) model. BOATS predicts fish production according to size spectra as a function of net primary production and temperature, and dynamically determines harvest spectra from the biomass density and interactive, prognostic fishing effort. Within this framework, the equilibrium fish biomass is determined by the economic forcings of catchability, ex-vessel price and cost per unit effort, while the peak harvest depends on the ecosystem parameters. Comparison of a large ensemble of idealized simulations with observational databases, focusing on historical biomass and peak harvests, allows us to narrow the range of several uncertain ecosystem parameters, rule out most parameter combinations, and select an optimal ensemble of model variants. Compared to the prior distributions, model variants with lower values of the mortality rate, trophic efficiency, and allometric constant agree better with observations. For most acceptable parameter combinations, natural mortality rates are more strongly affected by temperature than growth rates, suggesting different sensitivities of these processes to climate change. These results highlight the utility of adopting large-scale, aggregated data constraints to reduce model parameter uncertainties and to better predict the response of fisheries to human behaviour and climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- David A. Carozza
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- * E-mail:
| | - Daniele Bianchi
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Eric D. Galbraith
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
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16
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Cartapanis O, Bianchi D, Jaccard SL, Galbraith ED. Global pulses of organic carbon burial in deep-sea sediments during glacial maxima. Nat Commun 2016; 7:10796. [PMID: 26923945 PMCID: PMC4773493 DOI: 10.1038/ncomms10796] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2015] [Accepted: 01/21/2016] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
The burial of organic carbon in marine sediments removes carbon dioxide from the ocean–atmosphere pool, provides energy to the deep biosphere, and on geological timescales drives the oxygenation of the atmosphere. Here we quantify natural variations in the burial of organic carbon in deep-sea sediments over the last glacial cycle. Using a new data compilation of hundreds of sediment cores, we show that the accumulation rate of organic carbon in the deep sea was consistently higher (50%) during glacial maxima than during interglacials. The spatial pattern and temporal progression of the changes suggest that enhanced nutrient supply to parts of the surface ocean contributed to the glacial burial pulses, with likely additional contributions from more efficient transfer of organic matter to the deep sea and better preservation of organic matter due to reduced oxygen exposure. These results demonstrate a pronounced climate sensitivity for this global carbon cycle sink. While numerous studies have indicated that carbon export to the deep ocean was greater during glacial periods, quantification is lacking. Here, via analysis of hundreds of sediment cores, the authors show carbon accumulation rate was 50% higher during glacial maxima than during interglacials.
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Affiliation(s)
- Olivier Cartapanis
- Institute of Geological Sciences and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.,Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Canada H3A 2A7
| | - Daniele Bianchi
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Canada H3A 2A7.,School of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98105, USA.,Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095-1565, USA
| | - Samuel L Jaccard
- Institute of Geological Sciences and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
| | - Eric D Galbraith
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Canada H3A 2A7.,Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats (ICREA), 08010 Barcelona, Spain.,Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals and Department of Mathematics, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, 08193 Barcelona, Spain
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17
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Schmittner A, Galbraith ED. Glacial greenhouse-gas fluctuations controlled by ocean circulation changes. Nature 2008; 456:373-6. [PMID: 19020618 DOI: 10.1038/nature07531] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2008] [Accepted: 09/30/2008] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Earth's climate and the concentrations of the atmospheric greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) varied strongly on millennial timescales during past glacial periods. Large and rapid warming events in Greenland and the North Atlantic were followed by more gradual cooling, and are highly correlated with fluctuations of N(2)O as recorded in ice cores. Antarctic temperature variations, on the other hand, were smaller and more gradual, showed warming during the Greenland cold phase and cooling while the North Atlantic was warm, and were highly correlated with fluctuations in CO(2). Abrupt changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) have often been invoked to explain the physical characteristics of these Dansgaard-Oeschger climate oscillations, but the mechanisms for the greenhouse-gas variations and their linkage to the AMOC have remained unclear. Here we present simulations with a coupled model of glacial climate and biogeochemical cycles, forced only with changes in the AMOC. The model simultaneously reproduces characteristic features of the Dansgaard-Oeschger temperature, as well as CO(2) and N(2)O fluctuations. Despite significant changes in the land carbon inventory, CO(2) variations on millennial timescales are dominated by slow changes in the deep ocean inventory of biologically sequestered carbon and are correlated with Antarctic temperature and Southern Ocean stratification. In contrast, N(2)O co-varies more rapidly with Greenland temperatures owing to fast adjustments of the thermocline oxygen budget. These results suggest that ocean circulation changes were the primary mechanism that drove glacial CO(2) and N(2)O fluctuations on millennial timescales.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andreas Schmittner
- College of Oceanic & Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, USA.
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