Ecology: clouded futures

Amphibian diversity across three adjacent ecosystems in Área de Conservación Guanacaste, Costa Rica

Amphibians are the most threatened species-rich vertebrate group, with species extinctions and population declines occurring globally, even in protected and seemingly pristine habitats. These 'enigmatic declines' are generated by climate change and infectious diseases. However, the consequences of these declines are undocumented as no baseline ecological data exists for most affected areas. Like other neotropical countries, Costa Rica, including Área de Conservación Guanacaste (ACG) in north-western Costa Rica, experienced rapid amphibian population declines and apparent extinctions during the past three decades. To delineate amphibian diversity patterns within ACG, a large-scale comparison of multiple sites and habitats was conducted. Distance and time constrained visual encounter surveys characterised species richness at five sites-Murciélago (dry forest), Santa Rosa (dry forest), Maritza (mid-elevation dry-rain forest intersect), San Gerardo (rainforest) and Cacao (cloud forest). Furthermore, species-richness patterns for Cacao were compared with historic data from 1987-8, before amphibians declined in the area. Rainforests had the highest species richness, with triple the species of their dry forest counterparts. A decline of 45% (20 to 11 species) in amphibian species richness was encountered when comparing historic and contemporary data for Cacao. Conservation efforts sometimes focus on increasing the resilience of protected areas, by increasing their range of ecosystems. In this sense ACG is unique containing many tropical ecosystems compressed in a small geographic space, all protected and recognised as a UNESCO world heritage site. It thus provides an extraordinary platform to understand changes, past and present, and the resilience of tropical ecosystems and assemblages, or lack thereof, to climate change.

Molecular Level Sucrose Quantification: A Critical Review

Sucrose is a primary metabolite in plants, a source of energy, a source of carbon atoms for growth and development, and a regulator of biochemical processes. Most of the traditional analytical chemistry methods for sucrose quantification in plants require sample treatment (with consequent tissue destruction) and complex facilities, that do not allow real-time sucrose quantification at ultra-low concentrations (nM to pM range) under in vivo conditions, limiting our understanding of sucrose roles in plant physiology across different plant tissues and cellular compartments. Some of the above-mentioned problems may be circumvented with the use of bio-compatible ligands for molecular recognition of sucrose. Nevertheless, problems such as the signal-noise ratio, stability, and selectivity are some of the main challenges limiting the use of molecular recognition methods for the in vivo quantification of sucrose. In this review, we provide a critical analysis of the existing analytical chemistry tools, biosensors, and synthetic ligands, for sucrose quantification and discuss the most promising paths to improve upon its limits of detection. Our goal is to highlight the criteria design need for real-time, in vivo, highly sensitive and selective sucrose sensing capabilities to enable further our understanding of living organisms, the development of new plant breeding strategies for increased crop productivity and sustainability, and ultimately to contribute to the overarching need for food security.

Phenological Response in the Trophic Levels to Climate Change in Korea

The response of the phenological events of individual species to climate change is not isolated, but is connected through interaction with other species at the same or adjacent trophic level. Using long-term phenological data observed since 1976 in Korea, whose temperature has risen more steeply than the average global temperature, this study conducted phenological analysis (differ-ences in the phenology of groups, differences in phenological shifts due to climate change, differ-ences in phenological sensitivity to climate by groups, and the change of phenological day differ-ences among interacting groups). The phenological shift of the producer group (plants) was found to be negative in all researched species, which means that it blooms quickly over the years. The regression slope of consumers (primary consumers and secondary consumers) was generally posi-tive which means that the phenological events of these species tended to be later during the study period. The inter-regional deviation of phenological events was not large for any plant except for plum tree and Black locust. In addition, regional variations in high trophic levels of secondary consumers tended to be greater than that of producers and primary consumers. Among the studied species, plum was the most sensitive to temperature, and when the temperature rose by 1 °C, the flowering time of plum decreased by 7.20 days. As a result of checking the day differences in the phenological events of the interacting species, the phenological events of species were reversed, and butterflies have appeared earlier than plum, Korean forsythia, and Korean rosebay since 1990. Using long-term data from Korea, this study investigated differences in phenological reactions among trophic groups. There is a possibility of a phenological mismatch between trophic groups in the future if global warming continues due to differences in sensitivity to climate and phenological shifts between trophic levels.

High mortality in Bufo gargarizans eggs associated with an undescribed Saprolegnia ferax strain in the Republic of Korea

Pathogenic water molds have a significant impact on many species, especially amphibians. The genus Saprolegnia is a pathogenic oomycete restricted to aquatic and moist habitats, and its presence is strongly linked to the abundance of amphibians and fishes. We investigated the influence of Saprolegnia presence on egg mortality and egg occurrence under varying environmental conditions in the Asiatic toad Bufo gargarizans at 27 breeding sites in the Republic of Korea. We then assessed the impact of Saprolegnia on the presence of B. gargarizans at the 27 sites surveyed weekly during the B. gargarizans breeding season for 3 consecutive years. We used molecular tools to identify the water molds as belonging to an undescribed S. ferax strain. We demonstrated that the presence of S. ferax was positively associated with higher water conductivity and ponds. In addition, while S. ferax prevalence was associated with a reduction in B. gargarizans breeding activity and breeding success, we could not determine its impact on the subsequent breeding seasons. Our study highlights the potential negative effects of Saprolegnia on amphibian reproduction, although additional research is necessary to determine the relationship between Saprolegnia, its hosts and the impacts of habitat loss on amphibians.

Neotropical cloud forests and páramo to contract and dry from declines in cloud immersion and frost

Clouds persistently engulf many tropical mountains at elevations cool enough for clouds to form, creating isolated areas with frequent fog and mist. Under these isolated conditions, thousands of unique species have evolved in what are known as tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF) and páramo. Páramo comprises a set of alpine ecosystems that occur above TMCF from about 11° N to 9° S along the Americas continental divide. TMCF occur on all continents and island chains with tropical climates and mountains and are increasingly threatened by climate and land-use change. Climate change could impact a primary feature distinguishing these ecosystems, cloud immersion. But where and in what direction cloud immersion of TMCF and páramo will change with climate are fundamental unknowns. Prior studies at a few TMCF sites suggest that cloud immersion will increase in some places while declining in others. Other unknowns include the extent of deforestation in protected and unprotected cloud forest climatic zones, and deforestation extent compared with projected climate change. Here we use a new empirical approach combining relative humidity, frost, and novel application of maximum watershed elevation to project change in TMCF and páramo for Representative greenhouse gas emissions Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Results suggest that in <25–45 yr, 70–86% of páramo will dry or be subject to tree invasion, and cloud immersion declines will shrink or dry 57–80% of Neotropical TMCF, including 100% of TMCF across Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, much of Northern South America, and parts of Southeast Brazil. These estimates rise to 86% of Neotropical TMCF and 98% of páramo in <45–65 yr if greenhouse gas emissions continue rising throughout the 21^st century. We also find that TMCF zones are largely forested, but some of the most deforested areas will undergo the least climate change. We project that cloud immersion will increase for only about 1% of all TMCF and in only a few places. Declines in cloud immersion dominate TMCF change across the Neotropics.

Identification of influential events concerning the Antarctic ozone hole over southern Brazil and the biological effects induced by UVB and UVA radiation in an endemic treefrog species

The increased incidence of solar ultraviolet radiation (UV) due to ozone depletion has been affecting both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and it may help to explain the enigmatic decline of amphibian populations in specific localities. In this work, influential events concerning the Antarctic ozone hole were identified in a dataset containing 35 years of ozone measurements over southern Brazil. The effects of environmental doses of UVB and UVA radiation were addressed on the morphology and development of Hypsiboas pulchellus tadpole (Anura: Hylidae), as well as on the induction of malformation after the conclusion of metamorphosis. These analyzes were complemented by the detection of micronucleus formation in blood cells. 72 ozone depletion events were identified from 1979 to 2013. Surprisingly, their yearly frequency increased three-fold during the last 17 years. The results clearly show that H. pulchellus tadpole are much more sensitive to UVB than UVA light, which reduces their survival and developmental rates. Additionally, the rates of micronucleus formation by UVB were considerably higher compared to UVA even after the activation of photolyases enzymes by a further photoreactivation treatment. Consequently, a higher occurrence of malformation was observed in UVB-irradiated individuals. These results demonstrate the severe genotoxic impact of UVB radiation on this treefrog species and its importance for further studies aimed to assess the impact of the increased levels of solar UVB radiation on declining species of the Hylidae family.

Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Testing the relationship between human occupancy in the landscape and tadpole developmental stress

Amphibian population declines are widespread; the main causal factors are human related and include habitat fragmentation due to agriculture, mining, fires, and urban development. Brazil is the richest country in species of amphibians, and the Brazilian regions with the greatest amphibian diversity are experiencing relatively high rates of habitat destruction, but there are presently relatively few reports of amphibian declines. It is thus important to develop research methods that will detect deterioration in population health before severe declines occur. We tested the use of measurements of fluctuating asymmetry (FA) taken on amphibian larvae to detect anthropogenic stress. We hypothesized that greater human occupancy in the landscape might result in more stressful conditions for amphibians. We conducted this study at the Espinhaço mountain range in southeastern Brazil, using as a model an endemic species (Bokermannohyla saxicola, Hylidae). We chose two tadpole denticle rows and eye-nostril distance as traits for FA measurement. We measured percent cover of human-altered habitats in the landscape around tadpole sampling points and measured FA levels in sampled tadpoles. We found FA levels to differ among localities but found no relationship between human modification of the landscape and tadpole FA levels. Levels of FA in the traits we examined may not be strongly affected by environmental conditions, or may be affected by local variables that were not captured by our landscape-scale measures. Alternatively, populations may be genetically differentiated, affecting how FA levels respond to stress and obscuring the effects of anthropogenic disturbance.

Effects of CO2 and temperature on tritrophic interactions

There has been a significant increase in studies of how global change parameters affect interacting species or entire communities, yet the combined or interactive effects of increased atmospheric CO₂ and associated increases in global mean temperatures on chemically mediated trophic interactions are mostly unknown. Thus, predictions of climate-induced changes on plant-insect interactions are still based primarily on studies of individual species, individual global change parameters, pairwise interactions, or parameters that summarize communities. A clear understanding of community response to global change will only emerge from studies that examine effects of multiple variables on biotic interactions. We examined the effects of increased CO₂ and temperature on simple laboratory communities of interacting alfalfa, chemical defense, armyworm caterpillars, and parasitoid wasps. Higher temperatures and CO₂ caused decreased plant quality, decreased caterpillar development times, developmental asynchrony between caterpillars and wasps, and complete wasp mortality. The effects measured here, along with other effects of global change on natural enemies suggest that biological control and other top-down effects of insect predators will decline over the coming decades.

Climate-associated population declines reverse recovery and threaten future of an iconic high-elevation plant

Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai'i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1-2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful management, this iconic species has entered a period of substantial climate-associated decline. Mortality has been highest at the lower end of the distributional range, where most silverswords occur, and the strong association of annual population growth rates with patterns of precipitation suggests an increasing frequency of lethal water stress. Local climate data confirm trends toward warmer and drier conditions on the mountain, and signify a bleak outlook for silverswords if these trends continue. The silversword example foreshadows trouble for diversity in other biological hotspots, and illustrates how even well-protected and relatively abundant species may succumb to climate-induced stresses.

DNA barcode reference data for the Korean herpetofauna and their applications

Recently, amphibians and reptiles have drawn attention because of declines in species and populations caused mainly by habitat loss, overexploitation and climate change. This study constructed a DNA barcode database for the Korean herpetofauna, including all the recorded amphibians and 68% of the recorded reptiles, to provide a useful, standardized tool for species identification in monitoring and management. A total of 103 individuals from 18 amphibian and 17 reptile species were used to generate barcode sequences using partial sequences of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene and to compare it with other suggested barcode loci. Comparing 16S rRNA, cytochrome b (Cytb) and COI for amphibians and 12S rRNA, Cytb and COI for reptiles, our results revealed that COI is better than the other markers in terms of a high level of sequence variation without length variation and moderate amplification success. Although the COI marker had no clear barcoding gap because of the high level of intraspecific variation, all of the analysed individuals from the same species clustered together in a neighbour-joining tree. High intraspecific variation suggests the possibility of cryptic species. Finally, using this database, confiscated snakes were identified as Elaphe schrenckii, designated as endangered in Korea and a food contaminant was identified as the lizard Takydromus amurensis.

Combining population-dynamic and ecophysiological models to predict climate-induced insect range shifts

Hundreds of species are shifting their ranges in response to recent climate warming. To predict how continued climate warming will affect the potential, or “bioclimatic range,” of a skipper butterfly, we present a population‐dynamic model of range shift in which population growth is a function of temperature. We estimate the parameters of this model using previously published data for Atalopedes campestris. Summer and winter temperatures affect population growth rate independently in this species and therefore interact as potential range‐limiting factors. Our model predicts a two‐phase response to climate change; one range‐limiting factor gradually becomes dominant, even if warming occurs steadily along a thermally linear landscape. Whether the range shift accelerates or decelerates and whether the number of generations per year at the range edge increases or decreases depend on whether summer or winter warms faster. To estimate the uncertainty in our predictions of range shift, we use a parametric bootstrap of biological parameter values. Our results show that even modest amounts of data yield predictions with reasonably small confidence intervals, indicating that ecophysiological models can be useful in predicting range changes. Nevertheless, the confidence intervals are sensitive to regional differences in the underlying thermal landscape and the warming scenario.

Ethnoprimatology and the Anthropology of the Human-Primate Interface

Humans are literal and figurative kin to other primates, with whom many of us coexist in diverse social, ecological, symbolic, conflictual, and even hopeful contexts. Anthropogenic action is changing global and local ecologies as fast as, or faster than, we can study them. Ethnoprimatology, the combining of primatological and anthropological practice and the viewing of humans and other primates as living in integrated and shared ecological and social spaces, is becoming an increasingly popular approach to primate studies in the twenty-first century. This approach plays a core linking role between anthropology and primate studies and may enable us to more effectively assess, and better understand, the complex ecologies and potential for sustainability in human–other primate communities. Here I review the basic theoretical underpinnings, historical contexts, and a selection of current research outcomes for the ethnoprimatological endeavor and indicate what this approach can tell us about human–other primate relations in the Anthropocene.

Photosynthetic response of Cannabis sativa L., an important medicinal plant, to elevated levels of CO2

The effect of elevated CO2 concentrations (545 and 700 μmol mol(-1)) on gas exchange and stomatal response of four high Δ(9)-THC yielding varieties of Cannabis sativa (HPM, K2, MX and W1) was studied to assess their response to the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. In general, elevated CO2 concentration (700 μmol mol(-1)) significantly (p < 0.05) stimulated net photosynthesis (P N), water use efficiency (WUE) and internal CO2 concentration (C i), and suppressed transpiration (E) and stomatal conductance (g s) as compared to the ambient CO2 concentration (390 μmol mol(-1)) in all the varieties whereas, the effect of 545 μmol mol(-1) CO2 concentration was found insignificant (p < 0.05) on these parameters in most of the cases. No significant changes (p < 0.05) in the ratio of internal to the ambient CO2 concentration (C i/C a) was observed in these varieties under both the elevated CO2 concentrations (545 and 700 μmol mol(-1)). An average increase of about 48 %, 45 %, 44 % and 38 % in P N and, about 177 %, 157 %, 191 % and 182 % in WUE was observed due to elevated CO2 (700 μmol mol(-1)) as compared to ambient CO2 concentration in HPM, K2, MX and W1 varieties, respectively. The higher WUE under elevated CO2 conditions in Cannabis sativa, primarily because of decreased stomatal conductance and subsequently the transpiration rate, may enable this species to survive under expected harsh greenhouse effects including elevated CO2 concentration and drought conditions. The higher P N, WUE and nearly constant C i/C a ratio under elevated CO2 concentrations in this species reflect a close coordination between its stomatal and mesophyll functions.

Seedling dynamics at elevation limits: Complex interactions beyond seed and microsite limitations

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Limited availability of seeds and microsites are important constraints for seedling emergence and survival. However, little is known about population-level feedbacks between seed and microsite limitation and how these relationships vary in contrasting conditions. Focusing on Armeria caespitosa, a high-mountain endemic, we asked whether seedling establishment was simultaneously limited by seed and microsite availability, whether the balance between seed and microsite limitations varied with contrasting environments, and whether seed and microsite limitations interacted with each other. •

METHODS

We studied seedling emergence and survival at the edges of the elevation range of A. caespitosa in central Spain over 4 years. We used mixed linear models and structural equation modeling. •

KEY RESULTS

Our results showed that A. caespitosa recruits similar numbers of new seedlings per plot in contrasting environments. Seedling emergence and survival in A. caespitosa were both limited by seed and microsite availability. Habitat suitability (the surrogate of microsite limitation) varied between populations and indirectly affected fertility (the surrogate of seed limitation). •

CONCLUSIONS

Seedling emergence and survival are both seed and microsite limited, there are interactions between seed and microsite limitations, and both factors, which control seedling establishment, and their interconnections, vary among local populations.

Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches

It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change.

Reproduction of an early-flowering Mediterranean mountain narrow endemic (Armeria caespitosa) in a contracting mountain island

Reproduction at population lower edges is important for plant species persistence, especially in populations on contracting high-mountain islands. In this context, the ability of plants to reproduce in different microhabitats seems to be important to guarantee seed production in stressful environments, such as Mediterranean high mountains. We hypothesised that the warmer and drier conditions at the lower edge would be deleterious for the reproduction of Armeria caespitosa, an early-flowering plant. In addition, reproductive plasticity along this mountain gradient may also be microhabitat-dependent. We studied factors affecting the reproductive success of A. caespitosa, an endemic of the Spanish Sistema Central. We considered a complex set of predictors, including phenology, plant size and environmental factors at different scales using generalised estimating equations and generalised linear models. Microhabitat, together with the position in the altitudinal gradient and inter-annual variability affected the reproduction of A. caespitosa. In addition, individuals with longer flowering periods (duration of flowering) had significantly lower fruit set and a higher number of unviable seeds; delayed flowering peaks favoured the production of both viable and unviable fruits. Microhabitat variability over an altitudinal range is relevant for the reproduction of A. caespitosa, and is more important at the lower edge of the altitudinal range, where the species faces the most adverse conditions. In addition, the ability to reproduce in different microhabitats might increase the chances of the species to cope with environmental uncertainties under on-going climate warming. Finally, reproduction of this early-flowering plant is constrained by summer drought, which might shape its reproductive phenology.

A new paradigm in leaf-level photosynthesis: direct and diffuse lights are not equal

Global-change scenarios suggest a trend of increasing diffuse light due to expected increases in cloud cover. Canopy-level measurements of plant-community photosynthesis under diffuse light show increased productivity attributed to more uniform distribution of light within the forest canopy, yet the effect of the directional quality of light at the leaf level is unknown. Here we show that leaf-level photosynthesis in sun leaves of both C(3) and C(4) plants can be 10-15% higher under direct light compared to equivalent absorbed irradiances of diffuse light. High-light-grown leaves showed significant photosynthetic enhancement in direct light, while shade-adapted leaves showed no preference for direct or diffuse light at any irradiance. High-light-grown leaves with multiple palisade layers may be adapted to better utilize direct than diffuse light, while shade leaf structure does not appear to discriminate light based on its directionality. Based upon our measurements, it appears that leaf-level and canopy-level photosynthetic processes react differently to the directionality of light, and previously observed increases in canopy-level photosynthesis occur even though leaf-level photosynthesis decreases under diffuse light.

Underestimation of species richness in neotropical frogs revealed by mtDNA analyses

Background

Amphibians are rapidly vanishing. At the same time, it is most likely that the number of amphibian species is highly underestimated. Recent DNA barcoding work has attempted to define a threshold between intra- and inter-specific genetic distances to help identify candidate species. In groups with high extinction rates and poorly known species boundaries, like amphibians, such tools may provide a way to rapidly evaluate species richness.

Methodology

Here we analyse published and new 16S rDNA sequences from 60 frog species of Amazonia-Guianas to obtain a minimum estimate of the number of undescribed species in this region. We combined isolation by distance, phylogenetic analyses, and comparison of molecular distances to evaluate threshold values for the identification of candidate species among these frogs.

Principal Findings

In most cases, geographically distant populations belong to genetically highly distinct lineages that could be considered as candidate new species. This was not universal among the taxa studied and thus widespread species of Neotropical frogs really do exist, contrary to previous assumptions. Moreover, the many instances of paraphyly and the wide overlap between distributions of inter- and intra-specific distances reinforce the hypothesis that many cryptic species remain to be described. In our data set, pairwise genetic distances below 0.02 are strongly correlated with geographical distances. This correlation remains statistically significant until genetic distance is 0.05, with no such relation thereafter. This suggests that for higher distances allopatric and sympatric cryptic species prevail. Based on our analyses, we propose a more inclusive pairwise genetic distance of 0.03 between taxa to target lineages that could correspond to candidate species.

Conclusions

Using this approach, we identify 129 candidate species, two-fold greater than the 60 species included in the current study. This leads to estimates of around 170 to 460 frog taxa unrecognized in Amazonia-Guianas.

Significance

As a consequence the global amphibian decline detected especially in the Neotropics may be worse than realised.

Do epidermal lens cells facilitate the absorptance of diffuse light?

Many understory plants rely on diffuse light for photosynthesis because direct light is usually scattered by upper canopy layers before it strikes the forest floor. There is a considerable gap in the literature concerning the interaction of direct and diffuse light with leaves. Some understory plants have well-developed lens-shaped epidermal cells, which have long been thought to increase the absorption of diffuse light. To assess the role of epidermal cell shape in capturing direct vs. diffuse light, we measured leaf reflectance and transmittance with an integrating sphere system using leaves with flat (Begonia erythrophylla, Citrus reticulata, and Ficus benjamina) and lens-shaped epidermal cells (B. bowerae, Colocasia esculenta, and Impatiens velvetea). In all species examined, more light was absorbed when leaves were irradiated with direct as opposed to diffuse light. When leaves were irradiated with diffuse light, more light was transmitted and more was reflected in both leaf types, resulting in absorptance values 2-3% lower than in leaves irradiated with direct light. These data suggest that lens-shaped epidermal cells do not aid the capture of diffuse light. Palisade and mesophyll cell anatomy and leaf thickness appear to have more influence in the capture and absorption of light than does epidermal cell shape.

The ultimate challenge: prove B. F. Skinner wrong

For much of his career, B. F. Skinner displayed the optimism that is often attributed to behaviorists. With time, however, he became less and less sanguine about the power of behavior science to solve the major problems facing humanity. Near the end of his life he concluded that a fair consideration of principles revealed by the scientific analysis of behavior leads to pessimism about our species. In this article I discuss the case for Skinner's pessimism and suggest that the ultimate challenge for behavior analysts today is to prove Skinner wrong.

What is the extent of prokaryotic diversity?

The extent of microbial diversity is an intrinsically fascinating subject of profound practical importance. The term 'diversity' may allude to the number of taxa or species richness as well as their relative abundance. There is uncertainty about both, primarily because sample sizes are too small. Non-parametric diversity estimators make gross underestimates if used with small sample sizes on unevenly distributed communities. One can make richness estimates over many scales using small samples by assuming a species/taxa-abundance distribution. However, no one knows what the underlying taxa-abundance distributions are for bacterial communities. Latterly, diversity has been estimated by fitting data from gene clone libraries and extrapolating from this to taxa-abundance curves to estimate richness. However, since sample sizes are small, we cannot be sure that such samples are representative of the community from which they were drawn. It is however possible to formulate, and calibrate, models that predict the diversity of local communities and of samples drawn from that local community. The calibration of such models suggests that migration rates are small and decrease as the community gets larger. The preliminary predictions of the model are qualitatively consistent with the patterns seen in clone libraries in 'real life'. The validation of this model is also confounded by small sample sizes. However, if such models were properly validated, they could form invaluable tools for the prediction of microbial diversity and a basis for the systematic exploration of microbial diversity on the planet.

Mortality gradients within and among dominant plant populations as barometers of ecosystem change during extreme drought

Understanding patterns of plant population mortality during extreme weather events is important to conservation planners because the frequency of such events is expected to increase, creating the need to integrate climatic uncertainty into management. Dominant plants provide habitat and ecosystem structure, so changes in their distribution can be expected to have cascading effects on entire communities. Observing areas that respond quickly to climate fluctuations provides foresight into future ecological changes and will help prioritize conservation efforts. We investigated patterns of mortality in six dominant plant species during a drought in the southwestern United States. We quantified population mortality for each species across its regional distribution and tested hypotheses to identify ecological stress gradients for each species. Our results revealed three major patterns: (1) dominant species from diverse habitat types (i.e., riparian, chaparral, and low- to high-elevation forests) exhibited significant mortality, indicating that the effects of drought were widespread; (2) average mortality differed among dominant species (one-seed juniper[Juniperus monosperma (Engelm.) Sarg.] 3.3%; manzanita[Arctostaphylos pungens Kunth], 14.6%; quaking aspen[Populus tremuloides Michx.], 15.4%; ponderosa pine[Pinus ponderosa P. & C. Lawson], 15.9%; Fremont cottonwood[Populus fremontii S. Wats.], 20.7%; and pinyon pine[Pinus edulis Engelm.], 41.4%); (3) all dominant species showed localized patterns of very high mortality (24-100%) consistent with water stress gradients. Land managers should plan for climatic uncertainty by promoting tree recruitment in rare habitat types, alleviating unnatural levels of competition on dominant plants, and conserving sites across water stress gradients. High-stress sites, such as those we examined, have conservation value as barometers of change and because they may harbor genotypes that are adapted to climatic extremes.

Emerging infectious disease and the loss of biodiversity in a Neotropical amphibian community

Pathogens rarely cause extinctions of host species, and there are few examples of a pathogen changing species richness and diversity of an ecological community by causing local extinctions across a wide range of species. We report the link between the rapid appearance of a pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in an amphibian community at El Copé, Panama, and subsequent mass mortality and loss of amphibian biodiversity across eight families of frogs and salamanders. We describe an outbreak of chytridiomycosis in Panama and argue that this infectious disease has played an important role in amphibian population declines. The high virulence and large number of potential hosts of this emerging infectious disease threaten global amphibian diversity.

Environments and evolution: interactions between stress, resource inadequacy and energetic efficiency

Evolutionary change is interpreted in terms of the near-universal ecological scenario of stressful environments. Consequently, there is a premium on the energetically efficient exploitation of resources in a resource-inadequate world. Under this environmental model, fitness can be approximated to energetic efficiency especially towards the limits of survival. Furthermore, fitness at one stage of the life-cycle should correlate with fitness at other stages, especially for development time, survival and longevity; 'good genotypes' under stress should therefore be at a premium. Conservation in the wild depends primarily on adaptation to abiotically changing habitats since towards the limits of survival, genomic variation is rarely restrictive. The balance between energetic costs under variable environments and energy from resources provides a model for interpreting evolutionary stasis, punctuational and gradual change, and specialist diversification. Ultimately, a species should be in an equilibrium between the physiology of an organism and its adaptation to the environment. The primary key to understanding evolutionary change should therefore be ecological, highlighting energy availability in a stressed world; this approach is predictive for various patterns of evolutionary change in the living and fossil biota.

Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming

As the Earth warms, many species are likely to disappear, often because of changing disease dynamics. Here we show that a recent mass extinction associated with pathogen outbreaks is tied to global warming. Seventeen years ago, in the mountains of Costa Rica, the Monteverde harlequin frog (Atelopus sp.) vanished along with the golden toad (Bufo periglenes). An estimated 67% of the 110 or so species of Atelopus, which are endemic to the American tropics, have met the same fate, and a pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) is implicated. Analysing the timing of losses in relation to changes in sea surface and air temperatures, we conclude with 'very high confidence' (> 99%, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) that large-scale warming is a key factor in the disappearances. We propose that temperatures at many highland localities are shifting towards the growth optimum of Batrachochytrium, thus encouraging outbreaks. With climate change promoting infectious disease and eroding biodiversity, the urgency of reducing greenhouse-gas concentrations is now undeniable.

Climatic unpredictability and parasitism of caterpillars: implications of global warming

Insect outbreaks are expected to increase in frequency and intensity with projected changes in global climate through direct effects of climate change on insect populations and through disruption of community interactions. Although there is much concern about mean changes in global climate, the impact of climatic variability itself on species interactions has been little explored. Here, we compare caterpillar-parasitoid interactions across a broad gradient of climatic variability and find that the combined data in 15 geographically dispersed databases show a decrease in levels of parasitism as climatic variability increases. The dominant contribution to this pattern by relatively specialized parasitoid wasps suggests that climatic variability impairs the ability of parasitoids to track host populations. Given the important role of parasitoids in regulating insect herbivore populations in natural and managed systems, we predict an increase in the frequency and intensity of herbivore outbreaks through a disruption of enemy-herbivore dynamics as climates become more variable.

Status and Trends of Amphibian Declines and Extinctions Worldwide

The first global assessment of amphibians provides new context for the well-publicized phenomenon of amphibian declines. Amphibians are more threatened and are declining more rapidly than either birds or mammals. Although many declines are due to habitat loss and overutilization, other, unidentified processes threaten 48% of rapidly declining species and are driving species most quickly to extinction. Declines are nonrandom in terms of species' ecological preferences, geographic ranges, and taxonomic associations and are most prevalent among Neotropical montane, stream-associated species. The lack of conservation remedies for these poorly understood declines means that hundreds of amphibian species now face extinction.

Ecology: Compensating for Extinction

Food web interactions allow communities to compensate for the loss of species. Compensation of this kind may reshuffle communities so that today's resilient species are tomorrow's vulnerable species, creating a false impression of ecosystem stability following the first wave of extinction.