Development of a novel individualized warfarin dose algorithm based on a population pharmacokinetic model with improved prediction accuracy for Chinese patients after heart valve replacement

Construction of warfarin population pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics model in Han population based on Bayesian method

The purpose of this paper is to study the genetic polymorphisms of related gene loci (CYP2C9*3, VKORC1-1639G > A) based on demographic and clinical factors, and use the maximum a posterior Bayesian method to construct a warfarin individualized dose prediction model in line with the Chinese Han population. Finally, the built model is compared and analyzed with the widely used models at home and abroad. In this study, a total of 5467 INR measurements are collected from 646 eligible subjects in our hospital, and the maximum a posterior Bayesian method is used to construct a warfarin dose prediction that conforms to the Chinese Han population on the basis of the Hamberg model. The model is verified and compared with foreign models. This study finds that body weight and concomitant use of amiodarone have a significant effect on the anticoagulant effect of warfarin. The model can provide an effective basis for individualized and rational dosing of warfarin in Han population more accurately. In the performance of comparison with different warfarin dose prediction models, the new model has the highest prediction accuracy, and the prediction percentage is as high as 72.56%. The dose predicted by the Huang model is the closest to the actual dose of warfarin. The population pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics model established in this study can better reflect the distribution characteristics of INR values after warfarin administration in the Han population, and performs better than the models reported in the literature.

Association between gene polymorphisms and initial warfarin therapy in patients after heart valve surgery

BACKGROUND

Warfarin is widely used for the prevention and treatment of thrombotic events. This study aimed to examine the influence of gene polymorphisms on the early stage of warfarin therapy in patients following heart valve surgery.

METHODS

Nine single nucleotide polymorphisms were genotyped using microarray chips, categorizing patients into three groups: normal responders (Group I), sensitive responders (Group II), and highly sensitive responders (Group III). The primary clinical outcomes examined were time in therapeutic range (TTR) and international normalized ratio (INR) variability. To investigate potential influencing factors, a generalized linear regression model was employed.

RESULTS

Among 734 patients, the prevalence of CYP2C9*3-1075A > C, CYP2C19*3-636G > A, and CYP2C19*17-806C > T variants were 11.2%, 9.9%, and 1.9% of patients, respectively. VKORC1-1639G > A or the linked -1173C > T variant was observed in 99.0% of the patients. Generalized linear model analysis revealed an impact of sensitivity grouping on INR variability. Compared to Group I, Group II showed higher TTR values (p = 0.023), while INR variability was poorer in Group II (p < 0.001) and Group III (p < 0.001). Individual gene analysis identified significant associations between CYP2C9*3-1075A > C (p < 0.001), VKORC1-1639G > A or the linked -1173 C > T (p = 0.009) and GGCX-3261G > A (p = 0.019) with INR variability.

CONCLUSION

The genotypes of CYP2C9, VKORC1, and GGCX were found to have a significant impact on INR variability during the initial phase of warfarin therapy. However, no significant association was observed between TTR and gene polymorphisms. These findings suggest that focusing on INR variability is crucial in clinical practice, and preoperative detection of gene polymorphisms should be considered to assist in the initiation of warfarin therapy.

Developing Chinese race-specific warfarin dose prediction algorithms

BACKGROUND

Numerous genotype-guided warfarin dosing algorithms have been developed to individualize warfarin doses, but they can only explain 47-52% of the variability.

AIM

This study aimed to develop new warfarin algorithms suitable to predict the stable warfarin dose for the Chinese population and to compare their prediction performance with those of the most commonly used algorithms.

METHOD

Multiple linear regression analysis with the warfarin optimal dose (WOD), logarithm (log) WOD, 1/WOD, and [Formula: see text], respectively, as the dependent variables were performed to deduce a new warfarin algorithm (NEW-Warfarin). WOD was the stable dose that maintained the international normalized ratio (INR) within the target range (2.0-3.0). Three major genotype-guided warfarin dosing algorithms were selected and compared against NEW-Warfarin predictive performance using the mean absolute error (MAE). Furthermore, patients were divided into five groups according to warfarin indications [atrial fibrillation (AF), pulmonary embolism (PE), cardiac-related disease (CRD), deep vein thrombosis (DVT), and other diseases (OD)]. Multiple linear regression analyses were also performed for each group.

RESULTS

The regression equation with [Formula: see text] as the dependent variable had the highest coefficient of determination (R² = 0.489). The NEW-Warfarin had the best predictive accuracy compared to the three algorithms selected. Group analysis, according to indications, showed that the R² of the five groups were PE (0.902) > DVT (0.608) > CRD (0.569) > OD (0.436) > AF (0.424).

CONCLUSION

Dosing algorithms based on warfarin indications are more suitable for predicting warfarin doses. Our research provides a novel strategy to develop indication-specific warfarin dosing algorithms to improve the efficacy and safety of warfarin prescribing.

Impact of VKORC1, CYP2C9, CYP1A2, UGT1A1, and GGCX polymorphisms on warfarin maintenance dose: Exploring a new algorithm in South Chinese patients accept mechanical heart valve replacement

BACKGROUND

Warfarin is the most recommended oral anticoagulant after artificial mechanical valve replacement therapy. However, the narrow therapeutic window and varying safety and efficacy in individuals make dose determination difficult. It may cause adverse events such as hemorrhage or thromboembolism. Therefore, advanced algorithms are urgently required for the use of warfarin.

OBJECTIVE

To establish a warfarin dose model for patients after prosthetic mechanical valve replacement in southern China in combination with clinical and genetic variables, and to improve the accuracy and ideal prediction percentage of the model.

METHODS

Clinical data of 476 patients were tracked and recorded in detail. The gene polymorphisms of VKORC1 (rs9923231, rs9934438, rs7196161, and rs7294), CYP2C9 (rs1057910), CYP1A2 (rs2069514), GGCX (rs699664), and UGT1A1 (rs887829) were determined using Sanger sequencing. Multiple linear regressions were used to analyze the gene polymorphisms and the contribution of clinical data variables; the variables that caused multicollinearity were screened stepwise and excluded to establish an algorithm model for predicting the daily maintenance dose of warfarin. The ideal predicted percentage was used to test clinical effectiveness.

RESULTS

A total of 395 patients were included. Univariate linear regression analysis suggested that CYP1A2 (rs2069514) and UGT1A1 (rs887829) were not associated with the daily maintenance dose of warfarin. The new algorithm model established based on multiple linear regression was as follows: Y = 1.081 - 0.011 (age) + 1.532 (body surface area)-0.807 (rs9923231 AA) + 1.788 (rs9923231 GG) + 0.530 (rs1057910 AA)-1.061 (rs1057910 AG)-0.321 (rs699664 AA). The model accounted for 61.7% of individualized medication differences, with an ideal prediction percentage of 69%.

CONCLUSION

GGCX (rs699664) may be a potential predictor of warfarin dose, and our newly established model is expected to guide the individualized use of warfarin in clinical practice in southern China.

Validation and comparison between two warfarin dosing clinical algorithms and warfarin fixed dosing in specialized heart center: cross-sectional study

Background

Warfarin is well known as a narrow therapeutic index that has prodigious variability in response which challenges dosing adjustment for the maintenance of therapeutic international normalized ratio. However, an appreciated population not on new oral anticoagulants may still need to be stabilized with warfarin dosing.

Objective

The current study's main objective was to validate and compare two models of warfarin clinical algorithm models namely the Gage and the International Warfarin Pharmacogenetics Consortium (IWPC) with warfarin 5 mg fixed standard dosing strategy in a sample of Sudanese subjects.

Method

We have conducted a cross-sectional study recruited from the out-patient clinic at a tertiary specialized heart center. We included subjects with unchanged warfarin dose (stabilized), and with therapeutic international normalized ratio. The predicted doses of warfarin in the two models were calculated by three different methods (accuracy, clinical practicality, and the clinical safety of the clinical algorithms).

Main outcome measure

The primary outcomes were the measurements of the clinical (accuracy, practicality, and safety) in each of the two clinical algorithms models compared to warfarin 5 mg fixed standard dose strategy.

Results

We have enrolled 71 Sudanese subjects with mean age (51.7 ± 14 years), of which (49, 69.0%) were females. There was no significant difference between the warfarin 5 mg fixed standard dose strategy and the predicted doses of the two clinical algorithm models (MAE 1.44, 1.45, and 1.49 mg/day [P =0.4]) respectively. In the clinical practicality, all of the three models had a high percent of subjects (95.0%, 51.9%, and 66.7%) in the ideal dose range in middle dose group (3-7 mg/ day) for warfarin 5 mg fixed standard dosing strategy, Gage, and IWPC clinical algorithm models respectively. However, a small percent of subjects was exhibited in the warfarin low dose group ≤ 3 mg/day (0.0%, 15.0%, and 10.0%) and warfarin high dose group ≥ 7 mg/day (0.0%, 33.3%, and 33.3%) for warfarin 5 mg fixed standard dosing strategy, Gage, and IWPC clinical algorithms respectively. In terms of clinical safety, the percent of subjects with severely over-prediction were 28.2%, 22.5%, and 22.5% for warfarin 5 mg fixed standard dosing, Gage, and IWPC, respectively. While the percent of severely under-prediction was 12.7%, 7.0%, and 5.6% for the warfarin 5 mg fixed standard dosing, Gage, and IWPC, respectively.

Conclusion

The Gage and IWPC clinical algorithm models were accurate, more clinically practical, and clinically safe than warfarin 5 mg standard dosing in the study population. The cardiologist can use either models (Gage and IWPC) to stratify subjects for accurate, practical, and clinically safe warfarin dosing..

Nonlinear Machine Learning in Warfarin Dose Prediction: Insights from Contemporary Modelling Studies

Objective: This study aimed to systematically assess the characteristics and risk of bias of previous studies that have investigated nonlinear machine learning algorithms for warfarin dose prediction. Methods: We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), China Biology Medicine (CBM), China Science and Technology Journal Database (VIP), and Wanfang Database up to March 2022. We assessed the general characteristics of the included studies with respect to the participants, predictors, model development, and model evaluation. The methodological quality of the studies was determined, and the risk of bias was evaluated using the Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). Results: From a total of 8996 studies, 23 were assessed in this study, of which 23 (100%) were retrospective, and 11 studies focused on the Asian population. The most common demographic and clinical predictors were age (21/23, 91%), weight (17/23, 74%), height (12/23, 52%), and amiodarone combination (11/23, 48%), while CYP2C9 (14/23, 61%), VKORC1 (14/23, 61%), and CYP4F2 (5/23, 22%) were the most common genetic predictors. Of the included studies, the MAE ranged from 1.47 to 10.86 mg/week in model development studies, from 2.42 to 5.18 mg/week in model development with external validation (same data) studies, from 12.07 to 17.59 mg/week in model development with external validation (another data) studies, and from 4.40 to 4.84 mg/week in model external validation studies. All studies were evaluated as having a high risk of bias. Factors contributing to the risk of bias include inappropriate exclusion of participants (10/23, 43%), small sample size (15/23, 65%), poor handling of missing data (20/23, 87%), and incorrect method of selecting predictors (8/23, 35%). Conclusions: Most studies on nonlinear-machine-learning-based warfarin prediction models show poor methodological quality and have a high risk of bias. The analysis domain is the major contributor to the overall high risk of bias. External validity and model reproducibility are lacking in most studies. Future studies should focus on external validity, diminish risk of bias, and enhance real-world clinical relevance.

Adaptive Individualized Drug-Dose Response Modeling from a Limited Clinical Data: Case of Warfarin Management

Administration of drugs requires sophisticated methods to determine the drug quantity for optimal results, and it has been a challenging task for the number of diseases. To solve these challenges, in this paper, we present the semi-blind robust model identification technique to find individualized patient models using the minimum number of clinically acquired patient-specific data to determine optimal drug dosage. To ensure the usability of these models for dosage predictability and controller design, the model (In)validation technique is also investigated. As a case study, the patients treated with warfarin are studied to demonstrate the semi-blind robust identification and model (In)validation techniques. The performance of models is assessed by calculating minimum means squared error (MMSE).Clinical Relevance- This work establishes a general framework for adaptive individualized drug-dose response models from a limited number of clinical patient-specific data. This work will help clinicians in decision-making for improved drug dosing, patient care, and limiting patient exposure to agents with a narrow therapeutic range.

An ensemble learning based framework to estimate warfarin maintenance dose with cross-over variables exploration on incomplete data set

MOTIVATION

Warfarin is a widely used oral anticoagulant, but it is challenging to select the optimal maintenance dose due to its narrow therapeutic window and complex individual factor relationships. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely applied for warfarin dose prediction. However, the model performance always meets the upper limit due to the ignoration of exploring the variable interactions sufficiently. More importantly, there is no efficient way to resolve missing values when predicting the optimal warfarin maintenance dose.

METHODS

Using an observational cohort from the Xinhua Hospital affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, we propose a novel method for warfarin maintenance dose prediction, which is capable of assessing variable interactions and dealing with missing values naturally. Specifically, we examine single variables by univariate analysis initially, and only statistically significant variables are included. We then propose a novel feature engineering method on them to generate the cross-over variables automatically. Their impacts are evaluated by stepwise regression, and only the significant ones are selected. Lastly, we implement an ensemble learning based approach, LightGBM, to learn from incomplete data directly on the selected single and cross-over variables for dosing prediction.

RESULTS

377 unique patients with eligible and time-independent 1173 warfarin order events are included in this study. Through the comprehensive experimental results in 5-fold cross-validation, our proposed method demonstrates the efficiency of exploring the variable interactions and modeling on incomplete data. The R² can achieve 75.0% on average. Moreover, the subgroup analysis results reveal that our method performs much better than other baseline methods, especially in the medium-dose and high-dose subgroups. Lastly, the IWPC dosing prediction model is used for further comparison, and our approach outperforms it by a significant margin.

CONCLUSION

In summary, our proposed method is capable of exploring the variable interactions and learning from incomplete data directly for warfarin maintenance dose prediction, which has a great premise and is worthy of further research.

Model-Informed Precision Dosing of Antibiotics in Pediatric Patients: A Narrative Review

Optimal pharmacotherapy in pediatric patients with suspected infections requires understanding and integration of relevant data on the antibiotic, bacterial pathogen, and patient characteristics. Because of age-related physiological maturation and non-maturational covariates (e.g., disease state, inflammation, organ failure, co-morbidity, co-medication and extracorporeal systems), antibiotic pharmacokinetics is highly variable in pediatric patients and difficult to predict without using population pharmacokinetics models. The intra- and inter-individual variability can result in under- or overexposure in a significant proportion of patients. Therapeutic drug monitoring typically covers assessment of pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, and concurrent dose adaptation after initial standard dosing and drug concentration analysis. Model-informed precision dosing (MIPD) captures drug, disease, and patient characteristics in modeling approaches and can be used to perform Bayesian forecasting and dose optimization. Incorporating MIPD in the electronic patient record system brings pharmacometrics to the bedside of the patient, with the aim of a consisted and optimal drug exposure. In this narrative review, we evaluated studies assessing optimization of antibiotic pharmacotherapy using MIPD in pediatric populations. Four eligible studies involving amikacin and vancomycin were identified from 418 records. Key articles, independent of year of publication, were also selected to highlight important attributes of MIPD. Although very little research has been conducted until this moment, the available data on vancomycin indicate that MIPD is superior compared to conventional dosing strategies with respect to target attainment. The utility of MIPD in pediatrics needs to be further confirmed in frequently used antibiotic classes, particularly aminoglycosides and beta-lactams.

Effects of Comedication and Genetic Factors on the Population Pharmacokinetics of Lamotrigine: A Prospective Analysis in Chinese Patients With Epilepsy

Lamotrigine (LTG) is a second-generation anti-epileptic drug widely used for focal and generalized seizures in adults and children, and as a first-line medication in pregnant women and women of childbearing age. However, LTG pharmacokinetics shows high inter-individual variability, thus potentially leading to therapeutic failure or side effects in patients. This prospective study aimed to establish a population pharmacokinetics model for LTG in Chinese patients with epilepsy and to investigate the effects of genetic variants in uridine diphosphate glucuronosyltransferase (UGT) 1A4, UGT2B7, MDR1, ABCG2, ABCC2, and SLC22A1, as well as non-genetic factors, on LTG pharmacokinetics. The study population consisted of 89 patients with epilepsy, with 419 concentrations of LTG. A nonlinear mixed effects model was implemented in NONMEM software. A one-compartment model with first-order input and first-order elimination was found to adequately characterize LTG concentration. The population estimates of the apparent volume of distribution (V/F) and apparent clearance (CL/F) were 12.7 L and 1.12 L/h, respectively. The use of valproic acid decreased CL/F by 38.5%, whereas the co-administration of rifampicin caused an increase in CL/F of 64.7%. The CL/F decreased by 52.5% in SLC22A1-1222AA carriers. Patients with the ABCG2-34AA genotype had a 42.0% decrease in V/F, whereas patients with the MDR1-2677TT and C3435TT genotypes had a 136% increase in V/F. No obvious genetic effect of UGT enzymes was found relative to the concentrations of LTG in Chinese patients. Recommended dose regimens for patients with different gene polymorphisms and comedications were estimated on the basis of Monte Carlo simulations and the established model. These findings should be valuable for developing individualized dosage regimens in adult and adolescent Chinese patients 13–65 years of age.