Epidemiology of childhood leukaemia in greater london: A search for evidence of transmission assuming a possibly long latent period

Space-time clustering of childhood cancers: a systematic review and pooled analysis

The aetiology of childhood cancers remains largely unknown. Space–time clustering of cases might imply an aetiological role of infections. We aimed to review the evidence of space–time clustering of specific childhood cancers. We searched Medline and Embase for population-based studies that covered a pre-defined study area, included cases under 20 years of age and were published before July 2016. We extracted all space–time clustering tests and calculated the proportion of positive tests per diagnostic group. In a pooled analysis, we performed a Knox test of the number of pairs of cases close to each other in time and space pooled across studies. 70 studies met our eligibility criteria, 32 of which reported Knox tests. For leukaemia, the proportion of positive tests was higher than expected by chance at both time of diagnosis (26%) and birth (11%). The pooled analysis showed strong evidence of clustering at diagnosis for children aged 0–5 years for a spatial and temporal lag of 5 km and 6 months, respectively (p < 0.001). The evidence was mixed for lymphoma and tumours of the central nervous system. The current study suggests that leukaemia cases cluster in space–time due to an aetiological factor affecting children under 5 years of age. The observed pattern of clustering of young children close to time of diagnosis is compatible with Greaves’ delayed-infections-hypothesis.

Space-time clustering of childhood cancers in Switzerland: A nationwide study

The aetiology of childhood cancers remains largely unknown. It has been hypothesized that infections may be involved and that mini-epidemics thereof could result in space-time clustering of incident cases. Most previous studies support spatio-temporal clustering for leukaemia, while results for other diagnostic groups remain mixed. Few studies have corrected for uneven regional population shifts which can lead to spurious detection of clustering. We examined whether there is space-time clustering of childhood cancers in Switzerland identifying cases diagnosed at age <16 years between 1985 and 2010 from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. Knox tests were performed on geocoded residence at birth and diagnosis separately for leukaemia, acute lymphoid leukaemia (ALL), lymphomas, tumours of the central nervous system, neuroblastomas and soft tissue sarcomas. We used Baker's Max statistic to correct for multiple testing and randomly sampled time-, sex- and age-matched controls from the resident population to correct for uneven regional population shifts. We observed space-time clustering of childhood leukaemia at birth (Baker's Max p = 0.045) but not at diagnosis (p = 0.98). Clustering was strongest for a spatial lag of <1 km and a temporal lag of <2 years (Observed/expected close pairs: 124/98; p Knox test = 0.003). A similar clustering pattern was observed for ALL though overall evidence was weaker (Baker's Max p = 0.13). Little evidence of clustering was found for other diagnostic groups (p > 0.2). Our study suggests that childhood leukaemia tends to cluster in space-time due to an etiologic factor present in early life.

Space-time clustering of childhood cancer in great Britain: A national study, 1969–1993

Previous studies have provided evidence that infections may play a part in the aetiology of certain childhood cancers. The finding of space-time clustering indicates the presence of an environmental component to aetiology and is especially supportive of a role for infections. Space-time clustering occurs when excess numbers of cases of a disease are observed within small geographical locations at limited periods of time and this cannot be explained in terms of general excesses in those locations or at those times. To investigate whether infections may be involved in the aetiology of childhood cancer, we have analysed for space-time clustering using a large set of national population-based data from Great Britain for the period 1969-1993. Data were examined by a second-order procedure based on K-functions, with fixed thresholds of closeness in space (0.5-7.5 km) and closeness in time (0.1-1.5 years). Locations were addresses at diagnosis. Tests were repeated, replacing geographical distances with distances to the 19th-33rd nearest neighbours and this provided the primary result for each analysis. There were a total of 32,295 cases of childhood cancer. The analyses showed statistically significant evidence of space-time clustering for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia over the whole age range (p = 0.04), but especially for ages 1-4 years (p = 0.03). There was less statistically significant evidence for total leukaemia (p = 0.048). Significant space-time clustering was also evident for soft tissue sarcomas (p = 0.03) and osteosarcomas (p = 0.02). Results support other evidence suggesting a role for infections in the aetiology of these particular diagnostic groups.

Space-time clustering of childhood lymphatic leukaemias and non-Hodgkin's lymphomas in Sweden

BACKGROUND

The discussion concerning clusters of childhood leukaemia has mainly been focused on their relation to the time and place of diagnosis. Recently some studies have indicated clustering not only at diagnosis, but also around time and place of birth. Space-time clustering at time of birth could be of special interest if the aetiological agent is of infectious origin and the induction of leukaemia either occurs pre- or perinatally or an infection at that time favours a poor subsequent immune response to the agent.

METHODS

To identify possible space-time clustering we have used the close-pair method of Knox. One-thousand-twenty recorded cases (0-14 years) of childhood acute lymphatic leukaemia and 293 cases (0-14 years) of malignant non-Hodgkin's lymphoma from Sweden between 1973-1996 were analysed. The records include date of birth and of diagnosis as well as addresses at birth and at diagnosis.

RESULTS

A significant excess of case-pairs (25 observed, 14.9 expected, p = 0.01) was observed close in date and place of birth in the 4-14 year age group with acute lymphatic leukaemia (ALL). However there was no statistically significant clustering found around time of diagnosis. When the cases of leukaemia and the non-Hodgkin's lymphomas were combined no statistically significant clustering was obtained neither at birth nor at diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

This study strengthens the evidence of space-time clustering around the birth date in children whom later developed ALL. This observation is in support of the hypothesis that pre- or perinatal infections can induce a process leading to ALL.

Clusters and clustering of childhood cancer: a review

Methodological considerations in the study of clusters and clustering of childhood cancer are reviewed briefly. A selection of 11 studies of individual clusters of childhood leukaemia which are either particularly notable or recent and have been reported in peer review journals is then considered. Focus is placed on sources of alerts, descriptive studies, field-work studies, conclusions and communication management. Some of these studies are probably essential but they are unlikely to yield firm conclusions; studies of large data sets are recommended. No causal factor has been identified which can explain a single cluster of childhood leukaemia.

Spatial temporal patterns in childhood leukaemia: further evidence for an infectious origin. EUROCLUS project

The EUROCLUS project included information on residence at diagnosis for 13351 cases of childhood leukaemia diagnosed in the period 1980-89 in defined geographical regions in 17 countries. A formal algorithm permits identification of small census areas as containing case excesses. The present analysis examines spatial-temporal patterns of the cases (n = 970) within these clustered areas. The objectives were, first, to compare these results with those from an analysis conducted for UK data for the period 1966-83, and, second, to extend them to consider infant leukaemias. A modification of the Knox test investigates, within the small areas, temporal overlap between cases in a subgroup of interest at a putative critical time and all other cases at any time between birth and diagnosis. Critical times were specified in advance as follows: for cases of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia aged 2-4 years, the 18-month period preceding diagnosis; for cases of total leukaemia aged 5-14 years, 1 year before to 1 year after birth; and for infant cases (diagnosed < 1 year), 1 year before to 6 months after birth. Each of the analyses found evidence of excess space-time overlap compared with that expected; these were 10% (P = 0.005), 15% (P= 0.0002) and 26% (P= 0.03) respectively. The results are interpreted in terms of an infectious origin of childhood leukaemia.

Childhood cancers: space-time distribution in Britain

STUDY OBJECTIVES

To examine a national data set of all childhood cancers for evidence of space-time interactions within three distinct sets of dates and places (at birth, at diagnosis, and at death), to show whether the patterns found for these events represent separate phenomena or statistically interdependent processes, and to see whether the childhood leukaemias and the childhood solid cancers have separate distinctive patterns in these respects.

DESIGN

This was a space-time cluster analysis. The large number of cases enabled division of the data into two sets, one for hypothesis generation and the other for hypothesis testing.

SETTING

England, Scotland, and Wales.

SUBJECTS

A national collection of 22,360 children aged 0-15 years with fatal cancers and leukaemias in the period 1953 to 1980.

MAIN RESULTS

There was significant clustering among the leukaemias and lymphomas on date and place of birth (particularly among cases born within 1 km and up to 5 months apart), and on date and place of diagnosis (particularly among cases diagnosed from 3 to 5 km apart and up to 9 months apart). There was no clustering among the solid cancers. These findings were confirmed in two separate analyses of two separate sets of data.

CONCLUSIONS

The birth clustering was significant among pairs diagnosed at differing ages, and diagnosis clustering was significant among pairs born at different times, and it was concluded that the two types of clustering must be regarded as separate and statistically independent phenomena. Both the birth and the diagnosis clusters comprised many independent pairs of cases, with no large multiple case clusters. This suggests the involvement of multiple time-space localised exposures to hazards with short and constant latent intervals; probably an infectious agent or an environmental toxin. Given the separate nature of the two types of clustering, exposure to more than one hazard may be involved.

Viruses, clusters and clustering of childhood leukaemia: a new perspective?

Clusters of childhood leukaemia have, during a lengthy and controversial history, focussed attention on two alternative putative aetiological agents: infections and localised environmental pollution. In the United Kingdom emphasis is currently placed on the latter because of reports of localised clusters in the vicinity of two nuclear reprocessing plants. Now the most recent studies of spatial clustering in the United Kingdom also support the hypothesis that a substantial population of cases of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) arise as a rare host response to certain patterns of exposure to common infectious agents--the aberrant response model. Relevant aspects of the epidemiology of ALL are reviewed from this perspective and the hypothesis shown to be capable of unifying reported associations with different types of risk factor. It is probable that specific agent(s) are involved though none have been identified and these may share many epidemiological characteristics of herpes viruses. The possible relevance of these results to associations with prenatal parental occupational exposures to dusts and ionising radiation is explored.

Residential proximity of children with leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in three areas of northern England

A retrospective population-based case-control interview study has been conducted in three distinct areas in the north of England where local excesses of children with leukaemia have been reported. A total of 109 cases of childhood (0-14 years at diagnosis) leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma who were born in one of the study areas and diagnosed there between 1974 and 1988 were included in the study. One control per case was matched on sex, date-of-birth and health district of birth. The objective was to compare residential histories of cases and controls and in particular to determine whether case children had lived in the same place at the same time more often than controls. The residential distance between two children was taken to be the smallest geographical distance between homes they had 'occupied' simultaneously for a period of at least 6 months between conception and diagnosis. Case children were more likely than expected to have other cases as their nearest neighbours by residential distance (observed = 69, expected = 54.5, P = 0.006). A detailed examination of the nearest neighbour pattern permits the generation of further specific hypotheses. These suggest that persistent infection established in utero or early infancy may be involved in the development of some cases of childhood leukaemia. Horizontal transmission of the agent(s) within small communities may occur but there is no evidence of direct contact between cases.

Investigation of leukaemia clusters by use of a Geographical Analysis Machine

A new spatial analysis device called a Geographical Analysis Machine detects deviations from the Poisson distribution of rare events. Application to childhood leukaemia data from the north of England identified five clusters, only one of which had been noted by previous methods.

Time space distribution of childhood leukaemia in the Netherlands

In the western part of the Netherlands during 1973-80 leukaemia was diagnosed in 293 patients aged under 15 years. An overall incidence rate of 2.91 per 100000 person years was calculated. No seasonal influence on months of birth or months of diagnosis of these patients could be traced by the method of Edwards. Time space clustering was looked for by both methods of Mantel and Knox. No significant time space clustering of date and place of diagnosis of childhood leukaemia was found in all types of leukaemia, acute lymphocytic leukaemia (ALL), ALL in boys and girls, ALL in children under 6 years at diagnosis, and in acute non-lymphocytic leukaemia.