CsA exposure is associated with acute GVHD and relapse in children after SCT

A model based on machine learning for the prediction of cyclosporin A trough concentration in Chinese allo-HSCT patients

BACKGROUND

Cyclosporin A is a calcineurin inhibitor which has a narrow therapeutic window and high interindividual variability. Various population pharmacokinetic models have been reported; however, professional software and technical personnel were needed and the variables of the models were limited. Therefore, the aim of this study was to establish a model based on machine learning to predict CsA trough concentrations in Chinese allo-HSCT patients.

METHODS

A total of 7874 cases of CsA therapeutic drug monitoring data from 2069 allo-HSCT patients were retrospectively included. Sequential forward selection was used to select variable subsets, and eight different algorithms were applied to establish the prediction model.

RESULTS

XGBoost exhibited the highest prediction ability. Except for the variables that were identified by previous studies, some rarely reported variables were found, such as norethindrone, WBC, PAB, and hCRP. The prediction accuracy within ±30% of the actual trough concentration was above 0.80, and the predictive ability of the models was demonstrated to be effective in external validation.

CONCLUSION

In this study, models based on machine learning technology were established to predict CsA levels 3-4 days in advance during the early inpatient phase after HSCT. A new perspective for CsA clinical application is provided.

Impact of a Bayesian Individualization of Cyclosporine Dosage Regimen for Children Undergoing Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

Cyclosporine A (CsA) is the main drug used to prevent graft-versus-host disease in patients undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). CsA therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) has been performed for ages, with studies revealing clinical benefits, but failing to examine its economic impact. In this article, the main objective was to evaluate the economic impact of the CsA TDM strategy, based on a Bayesian approach, by assessing costs related to its clinical impact. Furthermore, TDM effectiveness was analyzed for pharmacokinetics and clinical outcomes.

METHODS

A cost-effective, nonrandomized, retrospective, single-center study compared 2 CsA monitoring and dose adaptation strategies in pediatric patients undergoing HSCT. From 2014 to 2016, CsA TDM was performed using a population pharmacokinetics model-coupled Bayesian approach by a pharmacist ["pharmacist-assisted individualization" (PAI)]. From 2017 to 2018, CsA TDM was performed by the clinician without a Bayesian approach (non-PAI group). HSCT costs were evaluated from the French National Insurance perspective. Economic and clinical outcomes were assessed by measuring incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

RESULTS

The study included 144 patients: 90 and 54 patients in PAI and non-PAI groups, respectively. Both groups were comparable for sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. The mean total cost per patient was significantly lower (P < 0.01) in the PAI group (€85,947) than in the non-PAI group (€100,435). Multivariate analysis revealed that TDM based on the Bayesian approach was a protective factor (odds ratio = 0.86) for severe acute graft-versus-host disease. We noted that pharmacist-based TDM was the dominant strategy. Bayesian method-based TDM allowed an increase in the percentage of target attainment at any period post-HSCT.

CONCLUSIONS

CsA TDM with a Bayesian approach is a cost-effective procedure, and highlighted clinical benefits encourage the development of new TDM strategies for HSCT.

A Clinical Decision Support Tool to Find the Best Initial Intravenous Cyclosporine Regimen in Pediatric Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation

To optimize cyclosporine A (CsA) dosing regimen in pediatric patients undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), we aimed to provide clinicians with a validated decision support tool for determining the most suitable first dose of intravenous CsA. We used a 10-year monocentric data set of pediatric patients undergoing HSCT. Discretization of all variables was performed according to literature or thanks to algorithms using Shannon entropy (from information theory) or equal width intervals. The first 8 years were used to build the Bayesian network model. This model underwent a 10-fold cross-validation, and then a prospective validation with data of the last 2 years. There were 3.3% and 4.1% of missing values in the training and the validation data set, respectively. After prospective validation, the Tree-Augmented Naïve Bayesian network shows interesting prediction performances with an average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.804, 32.8% of misclassified patients, a true-positive rate of 0.672, and a false-positive rate of 0.285. This validated model allows good predictions to propose an optimized and personalized initial CsA dose for pediatric patients undergoing HSCT. The clinical impact of its use should be further evaluated.

A decision support tool to find the best cyclosporine dose when switching from intravenous to oral route in pediatric stem cell transplant patients

PURPOSE

Managing the pharmacokinetic variability of immunosuppressive drugs after pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is a clinical challenge. Thus, the aim of our study was to design and validate a decision support tool predicting the best first cyclosporine oral dose to give when switching from intravenous route.

METHODS

We used 10-years pediatric HSCT patients' dataset from 2008 to 2018. A tree-augmented naïve Bayesian network model (method belonging to artificial intelligence) was built with data from the first eight-years, and validated with data from the last two.

RESULTS

The Bayesian network model obtained showed good prediction performances, both after a 10-fold cross-validation and external validation, with respectively an AUC-ROC of 0.89 and 0.86, a percentage of misclassified patients of 28.7% and 35.2%, a true positive rate of 0.71 and 0.65, and a false positive rate of 0.12 and 0.14 respectively.

CONCLUSION

The final model allows the prediction of the most likely cyclosporine oral dose to reach the therapeutic target specified by the clinician. The clinical impact of using this model needs to be prospectively warranted. Respecting the decision support tool terms of use is necessary as well as remaining critical about the prediction by confronting it with the clinical context.

Relationship between cyclosporine area-under-the curve and acute graft versus host disease in pediatric patients undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplant: A prospective, multicenter study

Traditionally in hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT), cyclosporine doses are individualized using cyclosporine trough concentrations (C₀) while area under the concentration vs time curve (AUC) is used in solid organ transplant. AUC potentially has an important relationship with the development of acute graft-versus-host-disease (aGVHD). We conducted a prospective study to describe the relationship between severe (grade III-IV) aGVHD and cyclosporine AUC in pediatric HSCT recipients. Pediatric patients who underwent allogeneic myeloablative HSCT and scheduled to receive cyclosporine for aGVHD prophylaxis participated in this multicenter study. Cyclosporine doses were adjusted based on C₀ according to each center's standard of care. Cyclosporine AUC was determined weekly until neutrophil engraftment or Day +42, whichever was later. Associations between severe aGVHD and cyclosporine AUC and other patient and treatment-related factors were evaluated. Of the 110 children enrolled, 97 were evaluable. Thirty-seven (38%) children developed aGVHD; 13 (13.4%) had severe aGVHD. On univariate analysis, there was no association between severe aGVHD and cyclosporine AUC at any time point before engraftment. Future research should focus on refinement of C₀ targets for cyclosporine therapeutic drug monitoring in HSCT.

Impact of cyclosporine-A concentration in T-cell replete haploidentical allogeneic stem cell transplantation

This paper aims to study whether cyclosporine-A (CSA) levels have an impact on the clinical outcome of patients with T-cell replete haploidentical allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). We analyzed 140 consecutive patients who had been given T-cell replete haploidentical allo-HSCT in our institute to assess the effect of CSA concentration in the early stages of allo-HSCT on clinical outcomes, such as hematopoietic recovery, acute graft vs host disease (aGVHD), infection, disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS). The median concentrations of CSA in the blood in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th week after allo-HSCT were 218, 235, 263, and 270 ng/mL, respectively. Additionally, 46%, 40%, 27%, and 18% of the patients had CSA blood levels below 200 ng/mL during those weeks. In total, 39 patients developed aGVHD (grade II-IV), for a cumulative incidence of 27.8%, at a median of 32 days. Patients having a low CSA concentration (below 200 ng/mL) in the 3rd week had a higher cumulative incidence of grade II-IV aGVHD (P = .02). In addition, multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that low CSA concentration (below 200 ng/mL) in the 3rd week was an independent risk factor of grade II-IV aGVHD (P = .02; odds ratio = 2.66; 95% CI, 1.15-6.17). However, CSA levels during the first 4 weeks did not have a significant impact on the patients' hematopoietic recovery, infection, DFS, and OS. Our data indicated that adequate management of CSA levels during the peri-engraftment period might improve clinical outcomes for those with T-cell replete haploidentical allo-HSCT.

Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics and Pharmacogenomics of Immunosuppressants in Allogeneic Haematopoietic Cell Transplantation: Part I

Although immunosuppressive treatments and target concentration intervention (TCI) have significantly contributed to the success of allogeneic haematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT), there is currently no consensus on the best immunosuppressive strategies. Compared with solid organ transplantation, alloHCT is unique because of the potential for bidirectional reactions (i.e. host-versus-graft and graft-versus-host). Postgraft immunosuppression typically includes a calcineurin inhibitor (cyclosporine or tacrolimus) and a short course of methotrexate after high-dose myeloablative conditioning, or a calcineurin inhibitor and mycophenolate mofetil after reduced-intensity conditioning. There are evolving roles for the antithymyocyte globulins (ATGs) and sirolimus as postgraft immunosuppression. A review of the pharmacokinetics and TCI of the main postgraft immunosuppressants is presented in this two-part review. All immunosuppressants are characterized by large intra- and interindividual pharmacokinetic variability and by narrow therapeutic indices. It is essential to understand immunosuppressants' pharmacokinetic properties and how to use them for individualized treatment incorporating TCI to improve outcomes. TCI, which is mandatory for the calcineurin inhibitors and sirolimus, has become an integral part of postgraft immunosuppression. TCI is usually based on trough concentration monitoring, but other approaches include measurement of the area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) over the dosing interval or limited sampling schedules with maximum a posteriori Bayesian personalization approaches. Interpretation of pharmacodynamic results is hindered by the prevalence of studies enrolling only a small number of patients, variability in the allogeneic graft source and variability in postgraft immunosuppression. Given the curative potential of alloHCT, the pharmacodynamics of these immunosuppressants deserves to be explored in depth. Development of sophisticated systems pharmacology models and improved TCI tools are needed to accurately evaluate patients' exposure to drugs in general and to immunosuppressants in particular. Sequential studies, first without and then with TCI, should be conducted to validate the clinical benefit of TCI in homogenous populations; randomized trials are not feasible, because there are higher-priority research questions in alloHCT. In Part I of this article, we review the alloHCT process to facilitate optimal design of pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamics studies. We also review the pharmacokinetics and TCI of calcineurin inhibitors and methotrexate.

Limited sampling strategies for estimating intravenous and oral cyclosporine area under the curve in pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplantation

BACKGROUND

The optimal monitoring strategy for cyclosporine (CsA) in pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) patients remains unclear. Although there is a growing interest in the use of the area under the concentration-time curve (AUC), measurement of AUC in clinical settings is often impractical. The objective of this study was to identify and validate limited sampling strategies (LSSs) for the prediction of CsA AUC after intravenous (IV) and oral (PO) administration in this population.

METHODS

Sixty-eight pediatric patients who underwent HSCT and received CsA were investigated. Twelve-hour pharmacokinetic profiles (n = 138) performed per standard of care were collected. Weighted multiple linear regression was used to investigate all possible LSSs consisting of 4 or less concentration-time points. Their predictive performance was evaluated by leave one out cross validation and external validation by measuring the root mean squared relative error (RMSE%) and the 95th percentile of the absolute relative error (AE%). Values less than 20% were considered clinically acceptable.

RESULTS

Nine LSSs (4 IV and 5 PO) convenient for clinical application proved to have clinically acceptable performance. Notably, LSS based on C0, C2, and C4 was found to be accurate for estimation of CsA exposure after both IV and PO administration with the 95th percentile of AE% of 19.7% and 17.5%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

LSSs using 3 or 4 concentration-time points obtained within 4 hours postdose provide a convenient and reliable method to estimate CsA exposure in this population. These LSSs may facilitate future research aiming at better defining the relationship between AUC and clinical outcomes.

A systematic review of acute kidney injury in pediatric allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell recipients

The process of allogeneic HSCT in children is associated with frequent AKI and mortality, but the epidemiology is not widely reported. The aim of this review was to summarize the available evidence on incidence, risk factors, timing, and prognosis of AKI in children following HSCT. We systematically reviewed all observational studies reporting incidence and outcomes of AKI in pediatric allogenic HSCT recipients. The minimum criteria for AKI were defined as an increase in sCr ≥ x1.5 or urine output ≤0.5 mL/kg/min over six h. Medline and Embase were searched until March 2014. From 993 electronic records, five were eligible for inclusion (n = 571 patients). The average incidence of AKI within the first 100 days following HSCT was 21.7% (range 11-42%), and the average time of onset was 4-6 wk post-transplant. Risk factors for AKI included cyclosporine toxicity, amphotericin B and foscarnet, SOS, and having a mismatched donor. There were conflicting reports on whether AKI was associated with the development of CKD. AKI is a common and potentially life-threatening complication following HSCT in children. Further quality observational studies are needed to accurately determine the epidemiology and prognosis of AKI in this population.

Cyclosporine use in hematopoietic stem cell transplantation: pharmacokinetic approach

Cyclosporine is one of the most vital agents in the process of successful allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. Despite a long history and worldwide extent of cyclosporine use for prevention of graft versus host disease, currently there are lots of uncertainties about its optimal method of application to reach the best clinical outcome. A major portion of this problem stems from complicated cyclosporine pharmacokinetics. Study of cyclosporine pharmacokinetic behavior can significantly help recognition of its effectiveness and consequently, optimization of dosing, administration, monitoring and management of adverse effects. In this review, highly accredited but sparse scientific data are gathered in order to provide a better insight for preparation of practice guidelines and directing future studies for allogeneic hematopoietic cell recipients.

Impact of sampling time deviations on the prediction of the area under the curve using regression limited sampling strategies

The regression limited sampling strategy approach (R-LSS), which is based on a small number of blood samples drawn at selected time points, has been used as an alternative method for the estimation of the area under the concentration-time curve (AUC). However, deviations from planned sampling times may affect the performance of R-LSS, influencing related therapeutic decisions and outcomes. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of different sampling time deviation (STD) scenarios on the estimation of AUC by the R-LSS using a simulation approach. Three types of scenarios were considered going from the simplest case of fixed deviations, to random deviations and then to a more realistic case where deviations of mixed nature can occur. In addition, the sensitivity of the R-LSS to STD in each involved sampling point was evaluated. A significant impact of STD on the performance of R-LSS was demonstrated. The tolerance of R-LSS to STD was found to depend not only on the number of sampling points but more importantly on the duration of the sampling process. Sensitivity analysis showed that sampling points at which rapid concentration changes occur were relatively more critical for AUC prediction by R-LSS. As a practical approach, nomograms were proposed, where the expected predictive performance of R-LSS was provided as a function of STD information. The investigation of STD impact on the predictive performance of R-LSS is a critical element and should be routinely performed to guide R-LSS selection and use.

Pharmacokinetic drug-drug interaction of calcium channel blockers with cyclosporine in hematopoietic stem cell transplant children

BACKGROUND

Cyclosporine (CsA) is frequently responsible for hypertension in bone marrow transplant children. Calcium channel blockers (CCBs) are considered to be the best treatment for CsA-induced hypertension, but they may alter the exposure and the effect of CsA by inhibiting the CYP3A4 pathway of CsA metabolism or P-gp. However, the inhibitory effect on CYP3A4 may vary among CCBs.

METHODS

This study aimed to quantify the pharmacokinetic drug-drug interaction between CsA and nicardipine, amlodipine, and lacidipine. In all, 51 children who received CsA and CCB concomitantly were included.

RESULTS

Dose-normalized CsA trough blood concentrations significantly increased in patients treated with nicardipine and amlodipine, whereas they remained stable in patients treated with lacidipine.

CONCLUSIONS

Because lacidipine appears to have no effect on CsA exposure, it may be the best option among CCBs for treating high blood pressure caused by CsA in children.

Bayesian approach for the estimation of cyclosporine area under the curve using limited sampling strategies in pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplantation

BACKGROUND

The optimal marker for cyclosporine (CsA) monitoring in transplantation patients remains controversial. However, there is a growing interest in the use of the area under the concentration-time curve (AUC), particularly for cyclosporine dose adjustment in pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. In this paper, we develop Bayesian limited sampling strategies (B-LSS) for cyclosporine AUC estimation using population pharmacokinetic (Pop-PK) models and investigate related issues, with the aim to improve B-LSS prediction performance.

METHODS

Twenty five pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplantation patients receiving intravenous and oral cyclosporine were investigated. Pop-PK analyses were carried out and the predictive performance of B-LSS was evaluated using the final Pop-PK model and several related ones. The performance of B-LSS when targeting different versions of AUC was also discussed.

RESULTS

A two-compartment structure model with a lag time and a combined additive and proportional error is retained. The final covariate model does not improve the B-LSS prediction performance. The best performing models for intravenous and oral cyclosporine are the structure ones with combined and additive error, respectively. Twelve B-LSS, consisting of 4 or less sampling points obtained within 4 hours post-dose, predict AUC with 95th percentile of the absolute values of relative prediction errors of 20% or less. Moreover, B-LSS perform better for the prediction of the 'underlying' AUC derived from the Pop-PK model estimated concentrations that exclude the residual errors, in comparison to their prediction of the observed AUC directly calculated using measured concentrations.

CONCLUSIONS

B-LSS can adequately estimate cyclosporine AUC. However, B-LSS performance is not perfectly in line with the standard Pop-PK model selection criteria; hence the final model might not be ideal for AUC prediction purpose. Therefore, for B-LSS application, Pop-PK model diagnostic criteria should additionally account for AUC prediction errors.

Prediction of area under the cyclosporine concentration versus time curve in children undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation

This prospective study aimed to validate a previously developed first-dose limited sampling strategy (LSS) to predict the area under the cyclosporine concentration-versus-time curve (AUC) and to develop and then validate an LSS to predict cyclosporine AUC at steady state. This two-center Canadian study included children (ages .4 to 17.2 years) undergoing myeloablative allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation receiving cyclosporine for acute graft-versus-host disease prophylaxis. There were three cohorts, each incorporating 24 AUC determinations: first-dose LSS validation, steady-state LSS development, and steady-state LSS validation. Patients contributing data to either of the development cohorts were excluded from the corresponding validation group. Cyclosporine was given every 12 hours as a 2-hour infusion. Cyclosporine AUC was determined after administration of the first cyclosporine dose (8 samples) and then once weekly (9 samples) until engraftment. Steady-state LSSs were developed using stepwise multiple linear regression. An LSS was considered to provide an acceptable estimate of AUC if the lower limit of the 95% confidence limit (CL) of the intraclass coefficient was .8 or higher and both bias and precision were 15% or less. Fifty-three children age .4 to 18 years participated. Cyclosporine concentrations drawn up to 4 hours from the start of the infusion correlated most strongly with AUC. The previously developed first-dose LSSs and three steady-state LSSs met criteria for acceptability. The intraclass coefficients of the three-point first-dose LSS validation cohort, three-point steady-state LSS development cohort, and three-point steady-state LSS validation cohort were .974 (95% CL: .941 to .988), .984 (95% CL: .965 to .993), and .993 (95% CL: .984 to .997), respectively. The three-point first-dose (2, 6, and 8 hours) and steady-state (2, 2.5, and 8 hours) LSSs are valid measures of cyclosporine AUC after intravenous administration over 2 hours. Their use in a prospective evaluation of the relationship between cyclosporine AUC and hematopoietic stem cell transplantation clinical outcomes in children is suggested.