Ontogenetic changes in genetic variances of age-dependent plasticity along a latitudinal gradient

A data-driven framework to model the organism-environment system

Organisms modify their development and function in response to the environment. At the same time, the environment is modified by the activities of the organism. Despite the ubiquity of such dynamical interactions in nature, it remains challenging to develop models that accurately represent them, and that can be fitted using data. These features are desirable when modeling phenomena such as phenotypic plasticity, to generate quantitative predictions of how the system will respond to environmental signals of different magnitude or at different times, for example, during ontogeny. Here, we explain a modeling framework that represents the organism and environment as a single coupled dynamical system in terms of inputs and outputs. Inputs are external signals, and outputs are measurements of the system in time. The framework uses time-series data of inputs and outputs to fit a nonlinear black-box model that allows to predict how the system will respond to novel input signals. The framework has three key properties: it captures the dynamical nature of the organism-environment system, it can be fitted with data, and it can be applied without detailed knowledge of the system. We study phenotypic plasticity using in silico experiments and demonstrate that the framework predicts the response to novel environmental signals. The framework allows us to model plasticity as a dynamical property that changes in time during ontogeny, reflecting the well-known fact that organisms are more or less plastic at different developmental stages.

Vegetative phase change causes age-dependent changes in phenotypic plasticity

Phenotypic plasticity allows organisms to optimize traits for their environment. As organisms age, they experience diverse environments that benefit from varying degrees of phenotypic plasticity. Developmental transitions can control these age-dependent changes in plasticity, and as such, the timing of these transitions can determine when plasticity changes in an organism. Here, we investigate how the transition from juvenile-to adult-vegetative development known as vegetative phase change (VPC) contributes to age-dependent changes in phenotypic plasticity and how the timing of this transition responds to environment using both natural accessions and mutant lines in the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana. We found that the adult phase of vegetative development has greater plasticity in leaf morphology than the juvenile phase and confirmed that this difference in plasticity is caused by VPC using mutant lines. Furthermore, we found that the timing of VPC, and therefore the time when increased plasticity is acquired, varies significantly across genotypes and environments. The consistent age-dependent changes in plasticity caused by VPC suggest that VPC may be adaptive. This genetic and environmental variation in the timing of VPC indicates the potential for population-level adaptive evolution of VPC.

Age-dependent genetic architecture across ontogeny of body size in sticklebacks

Heritable variation in traits under natural selection is a prerequisite for evolutionary response. While it is recognized that trait heritability may vary spatially and temporally depending on which environmental conditions traits are expressed under, less is known about the possibility that genetic variance contributing to the expected selection response in a given trait may vary at different stages of ontogeny. Specifically, whether different loci underlie the expression of a trait throughout development and thus providing an additional source of variation for selection to act on in the wild, is unclear. Here we show that body size, an important life-history trait, is heritable throughout ontogeny in the nine-spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius). Nevertheless, both analyses of quantitative trait loci and genetic correlations across ages show that different chromosomes/loci contribute to this heritability in different ontogenic time-points. This suggests that body size can respond to selection at different stages of ontogeny but that this response is determined by different loci at different points of development. Hence, our study provides important results regarding our understanding of the genetics of ontogeny and opens an interesting avenue of research for studying age-specific genetic architecture as a source of non-parallel evolution.

Leaf trait variation during ontogeny in the endangered Brazilian rosewood tree

Knowledge of plant responses to environmental heterogeneity during ontogeny is important to elucidate the changes that occur to promote resource capture in tropical forests. We tested the hypothesis that expression changes in leaf metamer traits of Brazilian rosewood (Dalbergia nigra), from seedlings to emergent canopy trees, occur as new microclimate environments are achieved. We also tested the hypothesis that increased light heterogeneity in the understorey leads to higher plasticity in leaf traits of seedlings and saplings than in sun-exposed metamers of emergent trees subject to stressful conditions. We compared leaf metamer traits of 53 individuals including seedlings, saplings and emergent trees. We also evaluated the light heterogeneity in vertical strata and the variations in leaf traits within individuals (among metamers of the same individual). These were associated with height of the individuals. Compared to understorey plants, emergent trees presented larger metamers, with lower specific leaf area (SLA), lower investment in leaf area per total dry mass of metamer (LAR_m ), lower specific petiole length (SPL) and lower specific internode length (SIL). Higher phenotypic variation within individuals was observed in seedlings, which decreased as the trees grew taller. The results suggest the integration of ontogenetic changes in leaf traits under new microclimate conditions as the plants reach different vertical strata in the forest. Additionally, our results support the hypothesis that increased light heterogeneity in the understorey shaped higher phenotypic variation within individuals in juveniles and that stressful conditions in sun-exposed leaf metamers of emergent trees led to increased phenotypic stability.

Does Body Shape in Fundulus Adapt to Variation in Habitat Salinity?

Understanding the ecological pressures that generate variation in body shape is important because body shape profoundly affects physiology and overall fitness. Using Fundulus, a genus of fish that exhibits considerable morphological and physiological variation with evidence of repeated transitions between freshwater and saltwater habitats, we tested whether habitat salinity has influenced the macroevolution of body shape at different stages in development. After accounting for phylogenetic inertia, we find that body shape deviates from the optimal streamlined shape in a manner consistent with different osmoregulatory pressures exerted by different salinity niches at every stage of ontogeny that we examined. We attribute variation in body shape to differential selection for osmoregulatory efficiency because: (1) saline intolerant species developed body shapes with relatively low surface areas more conducive to managing osmoregulatory demands and (2) inland species that exhibit high salinity tolerances have body shapes similar to saline tolerant species in marine environments.

Bayesian, Likelihood-Free Modelling of Phenotypic Plasticity and Variability in Individuals and Populations

There is a paradigm shift from the traditional focus on the "average" individual towards the definition and analysis of trait variation within individual life-history and among individuals in populations. This is a result of increasing availability of individual phenotypic data. The shift allows the use of genetic and environment-driven variations to assess robustness to challenge, gain greater understanding of organismal biological processes, or deliver individual-targeted treatments or genetic selection. These consequences apply, in particular, to variation in ontogenetic growth. We propose an approach to parameterise mathematical models of individual traits (e.g., reaction norms, growth curves) that address two challenges: 1) Estimation of individual traits while making minimal assumptions about data distribution and correlation, addressed via Approximate Bayesian Computation (a form of nonparametric inference). We are motivated by the fact that available information on distribution of biological data is often less precise than assumed by conventional likelihood functions. 2) Scaling-up to population phenotype distributions while facilitating unbiased use of individual data; this is addressed via a probabilistic framework where population distributions build on separately-inferred individual distributions and individual-trait interpretability is preserved. The approach is tested against Bayesian likelihood-based inference, by fitting weight and energy intake growth models to animal data and normal- and skewed-distributed simulated data. i) Individual inferences were accurate and robust to changes in data distribution and sample size; in particular, median-based predictions were more robust than maximum- likelihood-based curves. These results suggest that the approach gives reliable inferences using few observations and monitoring resources. ii) At the population level, each individual contributed via a specific data distribution, and population phenotype estimates were not disproportionally influenced by outlier individuals. Indices measuring population phenotype variation can be derived for study comparisons. The approach offers an alternative for estimating trait variability in biological systems that may be reliable for various applications, for example, in genetics, health, and individualised nutrition, while using fewer assumptions and fewer empirical observations. In livestock breeding, the potentially greater accuracy of trait estimation (without specification of multitrait variance-covariance parameters) could lead to improved selection and to more decisive estimates of trait heritability.

Linking thermal adaptation and life-history theory explains latitudinal patterns of voltinism

Insect life cycles are adapted to a seasonal climate by expressing alternative voltinism phenotypes-the number of generations in a year. Variation in voltinism phenotypes along latitudinal gradients may be generated by developmental traits at critical life stages, such as eggs. Both voltinism and egg development are thermally determined traits, yet independently derived models of voltinism and thermal adaptation refer to the evolution of dormancy and thermal sensitivity of development rate, respectively, as independent influences on life history. To reconcile these models and test their respective predictions, we characterized patterns of voltinism and thermal response of egg development rate along a latitudinal temperature gradient using the matchstick grasshopper genus Warramaba. We found remarkably strong variation in voltinism patterns, as well as corresponding egg dormancy patterns and thermal responses of egg development. Our results show that the switch in voltinism along the latitudinal gradient was explained by the combined predictions of the evolution of voltinism and of thermal adaptation. We suggest that latitudinal patterns in thermal responses and corresponding life histories need to consider the evolution of thermal response curves within the context of seasonal temperature cycles rather than based solely on optimality and trade-offs in performance. This article is part of the theme issue 'Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen'.

Variability in life-history switch points across and within populations explained by Adaptive Dynamics

Understanding the factors that shape the timing of life-history switch points (SPs; e.g. hatching, metamorphosis and maturation) is a fundamental question in evolutionary ecology. Previous studies examining this question from a fitness optimization perspective have advanced our understanding of why the timing of life-history transitions may vary across populations and environments. However, in nature we also often observe variability among individuals within populations. Optimization theory, which typically predicts a single optimal SP under physiological and environmental constraints for a given environment, cannot explain this variability. Here, we re-examine the evolution of a single life-history SP between juvenile and adult stages from an Adaptive Dynamics (AD) perspective, which explicitly considers the feedback between the dynamics of population and the evolution of life-history strategy. The AD model, although simple in structure, exhibits a diverse range of evolutionary scenarios depending upon demographic and environmental conditions, including the loss of the juvenile stage, a single optimal SP, alternative optimal SPs depending on the initial phenotype, and sympatric coexistence of two SP phenotypes under disruptive selection. Such predictions are consistent with previous optimization approaches in predicting life-history SP variability across environments and between populations, and in addition they also explain within-population variability by sympatric disruptive selection. Thus, our model can be used as a theoretical tool for understanding life-history variability across environments and, especially, within species in the same environment.

Development of G: a test in an amphibious fish

Heritable variation in, and genetic correlations among, traits determine the response of multivariate phenotypes to natural selection. However, as traits develop over ontogeny, patterns of genetic (co)variation and integration captured by the G matrix may also change. Despite this, few studies have investigated how genetic parameters underpinning multivariate phenotypes change as animals pass through major life history stages. Here, using a self-fertilizing hermaphroditic fish species, mangrove rivulus (Kryptolebias marmoratus), we test the hypothesis that G changes from hatching through reproductive maturation. We also test Cheverud's conjecture by asking whether phenotypic patterns provide an acceptable surrogate for patterns of genetic (co)variation within and across ontogenetic stages. For a set of morphological traits linked to locomotor (jumping) performance, we find that the overall level of genetic integration (as measured by the mean-squared correlation across all traits) does not change significantly over ontogeny. However, we also find evidence that some trait-specific genetic variances and pairwise genetic correlations do change. Ontogenetic changes in G indicate the presence of genetic variance for developmental processes themselves, while also suggesting that any genetic constraints on morphological evolution may be age-dependent. Phenotypic correlations closely resembled genetic correlations at each stage in ontogeny. Thus, our results are consistent with the premise that-at least under common environment conditions-phenotypic correlations can be a good substitute for genetic correlations in studies of multivariate developmental evolution.

Microgeographic differentiation in thermal performance curves between rural and urban populations of an aquatic insect

The rapidly increasing rate of urbanization has a major impact on the ecology and evolution of species. While increased temperatures are a key aspect of urbanization ("urban heat islands"), we have very limited knowledge whether this generates differentiation in thermal responses between rural and urban populations. In a common garden experiment, we compared the thermal performance curves (TPCs) for growth rate and mortality in larvae of the damselfly Coenagrion puella from three urban and three rural populations. TPCs for growth rate shifted vertically, consistent with the faster-slower theoretical model whereby the cold-adapted rural larvae grew faster than the warm-adapted urban larvae across temperatures. In line with costs of rapid growth, rural larvae showed lower survival than urban larvae across temperatures. The relatively lower temperatures hence expected shorter growing seasons in rural populations compared to the populations in the urban heat islands likely impose stronger time constraints to reach a certain developmental stage before winter, thereby selecting for faster growth rates. In addition, higher predation rates at higher temperature may have contributed to the growth rate differences between urban and rural ponds. A faster-slower differentiation in TPCs may be a widespread pattern along the urbanization gradient. The observed microgeographic differentiation in TPCs supports the view that urbanization may drive life-history evolution. Moreover, because of the urban heat island effect, urban environments have the potential to aid in developing predictions on the impact of climate change on rural populations.