Chronology of metastasis in cutaneous melanoma: growth rate model

Health Economic Consequences Associated With COVID-19-Related Delay in Melanoma Diagnosis in Europe

Importance

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in delayed access to medical care. Restrictions to health care specialists, staff shortages, and fear of SARS-CoV-2 infection led to interruptions in routine care, such as early melanoma detection; however, premature mortality and economic burden associated with this postponement have not been studied yet.

Objective

To determine the premature mortality and economic costs associated with suspended melanoma screenings during COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns by estimating the total burden of delayed melanoma diagnoses for Europe.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This multicenter economic evaluation used population-based data from patients aged at least 18 years with invasive primary cutaneous melanomas stages I to IV according to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) seventh and eighth editions, including melanomas of unknown primary (T0). Data were collected from January 2017 to December 2021 in Switzerland and from January 2019 to December 2021 in Hungary. Data were used to develop an estimation of melanoma upstaging rates in AJCC stages, which was verified with peripandemic data. Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated and were, together with cost data, used for financial estimations. The total financial burden was assessed through direct and indirect treatment costs. Models were building using data from 50 072 patients aged 18 years and older with invasive primary cutaneous melanomas stages I to IV according to the AJCC seventh and eighth edition, including melanomas of unknown primary (T0) from 2 European tertiary centers. Data from European cancer registries included patient-based direct and indirect cost data, country-level economic indicators, melanoma incidence, and population rates per country. Data were analyzed from July 2021 to September 2022.

Exposure

COVID-19 lockdown-related delay of melanoma detection and consecutive public health and economic burden. As lockdown restrictions varied by country, lockdown scenario was defined as elimination of routine medical examinations and severely restricted access to follow-up examinations for at least 4 weeks.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Primary outcomes were the total burden of a delay in melanoma diagnosis during COVID-19 lockdown periods, measured using the direct (in US$) and indirect (calculated as YLL plus years lost due to disability [YLD] and disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs]) costs for Europe. Secondary outcomes included estimation of upstaging rate, estimated YLD, YLL, and DALY for each European country, absolute direct and indirect treatment costs per European country, proportion of the relative direct and indirect treatment costs for the countries, and European health expenditure.

Results

There were an estimated 111 464 (range, 52 454-295 051) YLL due to pandemic-associated delay in melanoma diagnosis in Europe, and estimated total additional costs were $7.65 (range, $3.60 to $20.25) billion. Indirect treatment costs were the main cost driver, accounting for 94.5% of total costs. Estimates for YLD in Europe resulted in 15 360 years for the 17% upstaging model, ranging from 7228 years (8% upstaging model) to 40 660 years (45% upstaging model). Together, YLL and YLD constitute the overall disease burden, ranging from 59 682 DALYs (8% upstaging model) to 335 711 DALYs (45% upstaging model), with 126 824 DALYs for the real-world 17% scenario.

Conclusions and Relevance

This economic analysis emphasizes the importance of continuing secondary skin cancer prevention measures during pandemics. Beyond the personal outcomes of a delayed melanoma diagnosis, the additional economic and public health consequences are underscored, emphasizing the need to include indirect economic costs in future decision-making processes. These estimates on DALYs and the associated financial losses complement previous studies highlighting the cost-effectiveness of screening for melanoma.

[Translated article] Tumor Doubling Time in Skin Cancer: Can It Be Estimated and Is It Useful?

Skin cancer, like other cancers, is characterized by the uncontrolled growth of transformed cells. Tumor growth has been studied for decades. We review different methods for measuring skin tumor growth and propose a new system for estimating tumor doubling time that could be useful in the management of skin cancer.

Tumor Doubling Time in Skin Cancer: Can It Be Estimated and Is it Useful?

Skin cancer, like other cancers, is characterized by the uncontrolled growth of transformed cells. Tumor growth has been studied for decades. We review different methods for measuring skin tumor growth and propose a new system for estimating tumor doubling time that could be useful in the management of skin cancer.

The Epidemiology of Malignant Melanoma during the First Two Years of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review

It is hypothesized that the COVID-19 pandemic had a major impact on the epidemiology of malignant melanoma owing to diminished screening, diagnostic, and treatment capacities, resulting in a more advanced stage at initial presentation. The goal of this study is to undertake a systematic analysis of all epidemiological and clinical data on the trends and patient outcomes with malignant melanoma during the ongoing pandemic. Records were identified from PubMed, Cochrane, and Web of Science, selecting a total of 39 articles, narrative reviews, and editorial letters, following the PRISMA guidelines. The vast majority of the studies were published in Europe (28/39), and North America (7/39). A total of 99,860 patients were analyzed during 2020 and 2021 of the COVID-19 pandemic, and it was observed that malignant melanoma TNM staging increased significantly compared to the pre-pandemic period. Before the pandemic, 25.88% of patients had TNM stage II or above, compared to 36.25% during 2020-2021. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the malignant melanoma Breslow depth index grew from 1.59 mm before 2020 to 1.86 mm in 2020 and 2021. Patients decreased by 19.58% in 2020 and 2021 compared to pre-pandemic numbers. The patient-loss ratio indicated lower screening activity and patient addressability to dermatology and plastic surgery departments with skin cancer concerns during the COVID-19 pandemic. This systematic study shows that the identification and management of malignant melanoma during the COVID-19 pandemic faced major challenges which should alert medical systems to the high number of patients with advanced disease stages who may need emergency treatment and become incurable.

Limited impact of COVID-19-related diagnostic delay on cutaneous melanoma and squamous cell carcinoma tumour characteristics: a nationwide pathology registry analysis

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic reduced the number of skin cancer diagnoses, potentially causing a progression to unfavourable tumour stages.

OBJECTIVES

To identify the impact of delayed diagnostics on primary invasive melanoma and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) by comparing tumour (pT) stage, Breslow thickness and invasion depth from before to after the first and second lockdown periods.

METHODS

In this population-based cohort study, histopathology reports registered between 1 January 2018 and 22 July 2021 were obtained from the nationwide histopathology registry in the Netherlands. The Breslow thickness of melanomas, invasion depth of cSCCs, and pT stage for both tumour types were compared across five time periods: (i) pre-COVID, (ii) first lockdown, (iii) between first and second lockdowns, (iv) second lockdown and (v) after second lockdown. Breslow thickness was compared using an independent t-test. pT-stage groups were compared using a χ2 -test. Outcomes were corrected for multiple testing using the false discovery rate.

RESULTS

In total, 20 434 primary invasive melanomas and 68 832 cSCCs were included in this study. The mean primary melanoma Breslow thickness of the prepandemic era (period i) and the following time periods (ii-v) showed no significant difference. A small shift was found towards unfavourable pT stages during the first lockdown compared with the pre-COVID period: pT1 52·3% vs. 58·6%, pT2 18·9% vs. 17·8%, pT3 13·2% vs. 11·0%, pT4 9·1% vs. 7·3% (P = 0·001). No relevant changes were seen in subsequent periods. No significant change in pT stage distribution was observed between the pre-COVID (i) and COVID-affected periods (ii-v) for cSCCs.

CONCLUSIONS

To date, the diagnostic delay caused by COVID-19 has not resulted in relatively more unfavourable primary tumour characteristics of melanoma or cSCC. Follow-up studies in the coming years are needed to identify a potential impact on staging distribution and survival in the long term.

How Has the COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown Affected Breslow Thickness in Cutaneous Melanoma?

The Publisher regrets that this article is an accidental duplication of an article that has already been published, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ad.2021.05.025 . The duplicate article has therefore been withdrawn.

The full Elsevier Policy on Article Withdrawal can be found at https://www.elsevier.com/about/our-business/policies/article-withdrawal

Automatic segmentation of skin cells in multiphoton data using multi-stage merging

We propose a novel automatic segmentation algorithm that separates the components of human skin cells from the rest of the tissue in fluorescence data of three-dimensional scans using non-invasive multiphoton tomography. The algorithm encompasses a multi-stage merging on preprocessed superpixel images to ensure independence from a single empirical global threshold. This leads to a high robustness of the segmentation considering the depth-dependent data characteristics, which include variable contrasts and cell sizes. The subsequent classification of cell cytoplasm and nuclei are based on a cell model described by a set of four features. Two novel features, a relationship between outer cell and inner nucleus (OCIN) and a stability index, were derived. The OCIN feature describes the topology of the model, while the stability index indicates segment quality in the multi-stage merging process. These two new features, combined with the local gradient magnitude and compactness, are used for the model-based fuzzy evaluation of the cell segments. We exemplify our approach on an image stack with 200 × 200 × 100  μm³, including the skin layers of the stratum spinosum and the stratum basale of a healthy volunteer. Our image processing pipeline contributes to the fully automated classification of human skin cells in multiphoton data and provides a basis for the detection of skin cancer using non-invasive optical biopsy.

Estimated Effect of COVID-19 Lockdown on Skin Tumor Size and Survival: An Exponential Growth Model

Background and objectives

Spain is in a situation of indefinite lockdown due to the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. One of the consequences of this lockdown is delays in medical and surgical procedures for common diseases. The aim of this study was to model the impact on survival of tumor growth caused by such delays in patients with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and melanoma.

Material and methods

Multicenter, retrospective, observational cohort study. We constructed an exponential growth model for both SCC and melanoma to estimate tumor growth between patient-reported onset and surgical excision at different time points.

Results

Data from 200 patients with SCC of the head and neck and 1000 patients with cutaneous melanoma were included. An exponential growth curve was calculated for each tumor type and we estimated tumor size after 1, 2, and 3 months of potential surgical delay. The proportion of patients with T3 SCC (diameter > 4 cm or thickness > 6 mm) increased from 41.5% (83 patients) in the initial study group to an estimated 58.5%, 70.5%, and 72% after 1, 2, and 3 months of delay. Disease-specific survival at 2, 5, and 10 years in patients whose surgery was delayed by 3 months decreased by 6.2%, 8.2%, and 5.2%, respectively. The proportion of patients with ultrathick melanoma (> 6 mm) increased from 6.9% in the initial study group to 21.9%, 30.2%, and 30.2% at 1, 2, and 3 months. Five- and 10-year disease-specific survival both decreased by 14.4% in patients treated after a potential delay of 3 months.

Conclusions

In the absence of adequate diagnosis and treatment of SCC and melanoma in the current lockdown situation in Spain, we can expect to see to a considerable increase in large and thick SCCs and melanomas. Efforts must be taken to encourage self-examination and facilitate access to dermatologists in order to prevent further delays.

Tumor growth rate as a prognostic factor of acral melanoma in a Korean population

Rapid growth of cutaneous melanoma is associated with aggressive histopathologic features and poor prognosis. However, the impact of growth rate (GR) in acral melanoma (AM) remains largely unknown.We performed this study to identify the impact of GR on lymph node metastasis and survival in AM.We analyzed cases of invasive AM diagnosed at our institution between 1998 and 2017. We investigated the impact of GR on the prognosis of AM.A total of 126 cases of invasive AM were included. Log (GR) was significant associated with lymph node metastasis in the univariate logistic regression analysis (P = .005). The log-rank test revealed statistically significant differences in disease-free survival (DFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) among the GR quartiles. In the Cox regression analysis, log (GR) was an independent predictor for DFS (P = .041), but not for DSS in multivariate analysis. In the subgroup analysis, log (GR) was an independent predictor for early-stage (≤2A) AM (DFS, P = .002; DSS, P = .004).The limitations of this study include the retrospective design of the study and possible recall bias.Our results suggest that GR is an important prognostic factor for DFS and DSS in AM patients and an independent predictor for early-stage AM.

[Estimated Effect of COVID-19 Lockdown on Skin Tumor Size and Survival: An Exponential Growth Model]

Antecedentes y objetivos

La pandemia del coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 ha provocado un confinamiento indefinido. Una posible consecuencia de esta situación es un retraso en los procedimientos asistenciales de las enfermedades oncológicas. El objetivo de este estudio es estimar el hipotético impacto en la supervivencia que tendría el aumento del tamaño tanto para los carcinomas de células escamosas (CCE) como de los melanomas.

Material y método

Estudio observacional retrospectivo de cohorte multicéntrico. Se desarrolló un modelo de crecimiento exponencial para cada tumor basado en el tiempo de evolución que refiere el paciente.

Resultados

Se incluyeron un total de 200 pacientes con CCE localizados en la cabeza y el cuello y 1.000 pacientes con melanoma cutáneo. Se calculó una curva de crecimiento exponencial para cada tumor y se estimó el tamaño del tumor tras 1, 2 y 3 meses tras el diagnóstico. En la muestra, los CCE mayores de 4 cm o > 6 mm de grosor (definidos como T3) pasaron de 83 (41,5%) en el grupo de estudio real a una estimación del 58,5, 70,5 y 72% tras 1, 2 y 3 meses de retraso quirúrgico estimado, respectivamente. Se estimó una disminución de la supervivencia específica de enfermedad (SEE) de un 6,2, 8,2 y 5,2% a los 2, 5 y 10 años, respectivamente, tras 3 meses de retraso. Para los melanomas ultragruesos (> 6 mm de Breslow) pasaron del 6,9% en el grupo de estudio al 21,9, 30,2 y 30,2% tras 1, 2 y 3 meses de demora. La SEE a los 5 y 10 años del grupo de estudio descendió un 14,4% en ambos tiempos.

Conclusiones

En ausencia de un adecuado diagnóstico y tratamiento de los pacientes con CCE y melanoma en la actual situación de confinamiento en España, podemos llegar a asistir a un considerable aumento de los casos de CCE y melanomas gruesos y de gran tamaño. Se deben fomentar los esfuerzos para promocionar la autoexploración y facilitar el acceso a los dermatólogos para no aumentar la demora de estos pacientes.

Risk Factors for Lymphatic and Hematogenous Dissemination in Patients With Stages I to II Cutaneous Melanoma

Importance

The lymphatic and the hematogenous pathways have been proposed for disease progression in cutaneous melanoma, but association with recurrence has not been studied separately to date.

Objective

To identify the risk factors associated with lymphatic and hematogenous metastasis.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study included 1177 patients with malignant melanoma treated at Instituto Valenciano de Oncología, València, Spain. Data were retrieved from the melanoma database from January 1, 2000, through December 31, 2015, and analyzed from June 1 to 30, 2018.

Exposure

Malignant melanoma at stages I to II.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Analyses of survival free of lymphatic and hematogenous metastasis were performed using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression.

Results

For the 1177 patients included in the study analysis (51.1% women; median age at diagnosis, 55 years [interquartile range, 42-68 years), median follow-up was 75 months (interquartile range, 33-121 months); 108 (9.2%) developed lymphatic metastasis, and 108 (9.2%) developed hematogenous metastasis. In the multivariate analysis, being older than 55 years (hazard ratio [HR], 1.9; 95% CI, 1.2-3.1), tumor in the head/neck (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.0-2.9) and acral locations (HR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.3-4.5), greater Breslow thickness (HR for >4.00 mm, 5.4; 95% CI, 2.4-12.4), and presence of vascular invasion (HR, 3.2; 95% CI, 0.9-10.6) were associated with lymphatic spreading. Hematogenous metastasis was associated with greater Breslow thickness (HR for >4.00 mm, 10.4; 95% CI, 3.6-29.7), the absence of regression (HR, 0.1; 95% CI, 0.0-1.0), TERT promoter mutations (HR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.5-5.7), and BRAF mutations (HR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1-3.6).

Conclusions and Relevance

Risk factors associated with lymphatic and hematogenous metastasis differ. Follow-up and adjuvant treatment strategies may therefore need to be adapted to individual clinical, histopathologic, and molecular characteristics.

Al18F-labeled alpha-melanocyte-stimulating hormone (α-MSH) peptide derivative for the early detection of melanoma

OBJECTIVE

Early detection plays a role in the prognosis of melanoma, the most aggressive skin cancer. ⁶⁴Cu- and ⁶⁸Ga-labeled alpha-melanocyte-stimulating hormone (α-MSH) analogs targeting the melanocortin-1 receptor are promising positron emission tomography (PET) tracers for detecting melanoma, and the use of ¹⁸F-labeling will further contribute to the detectability and availability. However, the high radiochemistry demand related to the conventional ¹⁸F-labeling methods has restricted the development of ¹⁸F-labeled α-MSH analogs. A recently developed radiofluorination method using aluminum-fluoride (Al¹⁸F) offers a simple, efficient, and time-saving labeling procedure compared to the conventional ¹⁸F-labeling methods. Herein, we sought to establish a simple preparation method for an ¹⁸F-labeled α-MSH analog using Al¹⁸F, and we examined its potential for the early detection of melanoma.

METHODS

A 1,4,7-triazacyclononane-N,N',N″-triacetic acid (NOTA)-conjugated α-MSH analog (NOTA-GGNle-CycMSH_hex) was prepared by the Fmoc solid-phase strategy. NOTA-GGNle-CycMSH_hex was labeled with Al¹⁸F by heating at 105 °C using a microwave synthesizer for 15 min. Biodistribution study was conducted on B16/F10-luc melanoma-bearing mice at 30 min, 1 h and 3 h after injection of Al¹⁸F-NOTA-GGNle-CycMSH_hex. PET imaging was conducted on melanoma-bearing mice at 1 h post-injection. One day prior to the PET imaging, bioluminescence imaging was also performed.

RESULTS

Al¹⁸F-NOTA-GGNle-CycMSH_hex was readily prepared with a high radiochemical yield (94.0 ± 2.8%). The biodistribution study showed a high accumulation of Al¹⁸F-NOTA-GGNle-CycMSH_hex in the tumor at 30 min and 1 h post-injection (6.69 ± 1.49 and 7.70 ± 1.71%ID/g, respectively). The tumor-to-blood ratio increased with time: 3.46 ± 0.89, 12.67 ± 1.29, and 35.27 ± 9.12 at 30 min, 1 h, and 3 h post-injection, respectively. In the PET imaging, Al¹⁸F-NOTA-GGNle-CycMSH_hex clearly visualized the tumors and depicted very small tumors (< 3 mm).

CONCLUSIONS

We successfully prepared Al¹⁸F-NOTA-GGNle-CycMSH_hex in a simple and efficient manner. Al¹⁸F-NOTA-GGNle-CycMSH_hex showed high tumor accumulation and clearly visualized very small tumors in melanoma-bearing mice. These findings suggest that Al¹⁸F-NOTA-GGNle-CycMSH_hex will be a promising PET tracer for melanoma imaging at an earlier stage.

Rapid growth rate is associated with poor prognosis in cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) represents the most common form of skin cancer after basal cell carcinoma, and can be both locally invasive and metastatic to distant sites. Growth rate (GR) has been poorly evaluated in cSCC, despite clinical evidence suggesting that GR is an important risk factor in cSCC.

AIM

To analyse the influence of GR in cSCC prognosis.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated GR in a series of 90 cSCCs and tried to correlate GR with prognosis in cSCC.

RESULTS

We demonstrated that tumours with a GR of > 4 mm/month exhibit a higher risk of nodal progression and a shorter progression time to lymph node metastasis in cSCC than those with GR of < 4 mm/month. As expected, GR correlated with tumour proliferation, as determined by Ki-67 expression.

CONCLUSIONS

We consider a GR of 4 mm/month as the cutoff point that distinguishes between rapid- and slow-progressing tumours and, more importantly, to identify a subset of high-risk cSCCs.

Translational Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic Modeling of Tumor Growth Inhibition Supports Dose-Range Selection of the Anti-PD-1 Antibody Pembrolizumab

Pembrolizumab, a humanized monoclonal antibody against programmed death 1 (PD‐1), has a manageable safety profile and robust clinical activity against advanced malignancies. The lowest effective dose for evaluation in further dose‐ranging studies was identified by developing a translational model from preclinical mouse experiments. A compartmental pharmacokinetic model was combined with a published physiologically based tissue compartment, linked to receptor occupancy as the driver of observed tumor growth inhibition. Human simulations were performed using clinical pharmacokinetic data, literature values, and in vitro parameters for drug distribution and binding. Biological and mathematical uncertainties were included in simulations to generate expectations for dose response. The results demonstrated a minimal increase in efficacy for doses higher than 2 mg/kg. The findings of the translational model were successfully applied to select 2 mg/kg as the lowest dose for dose‐ranging evaluations.