Development of end stage renal disease following an acute cardiac event

Specific impact of past and new major cardiovascular events on acute kidney injury and end-stage renal disease risks in diabetes: a dynamic view

BACKGROUND

Interconnections between major cardiovascular events (MCVEs) and renal events are recognized in diabetes, however, the specific impact of atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure (HF) and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) on the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) on top of established renal risk factors is unclear in type 2 diabetes mellitus.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study in 861 consecutive patients followed in a nephrology setting during the 2000-13 period.

RESULTS

The mean age was 70 ± 10 years, 65.1% were men and the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 42.4 ± 21.0 mL/min/1.73 m2. During follow-up (median 59 months), 194 patients reached ESRD. A history of AF, HF or ACS was associated with an increased risk of reduced baseline eGFR. In turn, reduced baseline eGFR resulted in a greater risk of new MCVE (especially HF) during follow-up. Finally, all new MCVEs were risk factors for subsequent acute kidney injury (AKI) {HF: hazard ratio [HR] 8.99 [95% confidence interval (CI) 7.06-11.4]; AF: HR 5.42 (3.91-7.52); ACS: HR 8.82 (6.24-12.5); all P < 0.0001} and ESRD [HF: HR 5.52 (95% CI 4.01-7.60), P < 0.0001; AF: HR 3.48 (2.30-5.21), P < 0.0001; ACS: HR 2.31 (1.43-3.73), P = 0.0006]. The AF- and HF-associated risks of ESRD were significant after adjustments on all renal risks of ESRD (gender, blood pressure, eGFR, albuminuria, renin-angiotensin blockers, retinopathy and AKI), but the association was less strong for ACS. Importantly, no association was noted between other major events such as stroke or infections and the risk of ESRD.

CONCLUSIONS

Past and new cardiovascular events (more HF and AF than ACS) have a strong, independent impact on the development of ESRD above and beyond established risk factors in diabetes.

Should the arteriovenous fistula be created before starting dialysis?: a decision analytic approach

Background

An arteriovenous fistula (AVF) is considered the vascular access of choice, but uncertainty exists about the optimal time for its creation in pre-dialysis patients. The aim of this study was to determine the optimal vascular access referral strategy for stage 4 (glomerular filtration rate <30 ml/min/1.73 m²) chronic kidney disease patients using a decision analytic framework.

Methods

A Markov model was created to compare two strategies: refer all stage 4 chronic kidney disease patients for an AVF versus wait until the patient starts dialysis. Data from published observational studies were used to estimate the probabilities used in the model. A Markov cohort analysis was used to determine the optimal strategy with life expectancy and quality adjusted life expectancy as the outcomes. Sensitivity analyses, including a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, were performed using Monte Carlo simulation.

Results

The wait strategy results in a higher life expectancy (66.6 versus 65.9 months) and quality adjusted life expectancy (38.9 versus 38.5 quality adjusted life months) than immediate AVF creation. It was robust across all the parameters except at higher rates of progression and lower rates of ischemic steal syndrome.

Conclusions

Early creation of an AVF, as recommended by most guidelines, may not be the preferred strategy in all pre-dialysis patients. Further research on cost implications and patient preferences for treatment options needs to be done before recommending early AVF creation.