Recommendations to meet statistical challenges arising from endpoints beyond overall survival in clinical trials on chronic myeloid leukemia

Comparison of molecular responses and outcomes between BCR‐ABL1 e14a2 and e13a2 transcripts in chronic myeloid leukemia

Several studies have compared the molecular responses between e14a2 and e13a2 BCR::ABL1 transcripts in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients treated with front‐line imatinib, but there were very limited studies on nilotinib or dasatinib‐treated patients. We retrospectively analyzed the molecular responses in 1124 CML patients with the e14a2 or e13a2 transcript receiving front‐line imatinib, nilotinib or dasatinib treatment. Patients with the e14a2 transcript had higher optimal response rates than those with the e13a2 transcript at 12 months in the imatinib‐treated group, and 6 and 12 months in the nilotinib‐treated group. The optimal response rates were not significantly different between the two transcripts in the dasatinib‐treated group at landmark molecular responses. With a median follow‐up time of 48.4 months, higher cumulative incidences of BCR::ABL1 International Scale ≤1% and major molecular response were observed in patients with the e14a2 rather than the e13a2 transcript receiving front‐line imatinib or nilotinib treatment, but not in dasatinib‐treated patients. The progression‐free survival and overall survival did not differ between the two transcripts in all three treatment groups. In view of the speed and depth of molecular responses, BCR::ABL1 transcript subtypes might provide helpful information in selecting a front‐line tyrosine kinase inhibitor for individual young patients with future potential treatment‐free remission.

Progress in Transplants for Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

Hematopoietic cell transplants are used to treat some adults with acute lymphoblastic leukemia, especially those with high-risk features, such as those with BCR::ABL1. This strategy may be changing given the safety and efficacy of modern tyrosine kinase inhibitors. Although these transplants are often successful, leukemia relapse remains the dominant cause of transplant failure. There are several approaches to this problem discussed by the authors of a recent article in the journal. The good news is therapy of recurrent leukemia posttransplant seems increasingly successful and for diverse reasons, survival is increasing substantially.See related article by Bazarbachi et al., p. XXXX.

Early BCR-ABL1 kinetics are predictive of subsequent achievement of treatment-free remission in chronic myeloid leukemia

With treatment-free remission (TFR) rapidly becoming the ultimate goal of therapy in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), there is a need to develop strategies to maximize sustained TFR by improving our understanding of its key determinants. Chronic-phase CML patients attempting TFR were evaluated to identify the impact of multiple variables on the probability of sustained TFR. Early molecular response dynamics were included as a predictive variable, assessed by calculating the patient-specific halving time of BCR-ABL1 after commencing tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) therapy. Overall, 115 patients attempted TFR and had ≥12 months of follow-up. The probability of sustained TFR, defined as remaining in major molecular response off TKI therapy for 12 months, was 55%. The time taken for the BCR-ABL1 value to halve was the strongest independent predictor of sustained TFR: 80% in patients with a halving time of <9.35 days (first quartile) compared with only 4% if the halving time was >21.85 days (last quartile) (P < .001). The e14a2 BCR-ABL1 transcript type and duration of TKI exposure before attempting TFR were also independent predictors of sustained TFR. However, the BCR-ABL1 value measured at 3 months of TKI was not an independent predictor of sustained TFR. A more rapid initial BCR-ABL1 decline after commencing TKI also correlated with an increased likelihood of achieving TFR eligibility. The association between sustained TFR and the time taken for BCR-ABL1 to halve after commencing TKI was validated using an independent dataset. These data support the critical importance of the initial kinetics of BCR-ABL1 decline for long-term outcomes.

An indirect comparison between bosutinib, nilotinib and dasatinib in first-line chronic phase chronic myeloid leukemia

OBJECTIVE

Bosutinib, nilotinib and dasatinib are approved for the treatment of patients with newly diagnosed chronic-phase chronic myeloid leukemia (CP-CML). In the absence of head-to-head comparisons between second-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs), the objective of this study was to indirectly compare the efficacy of bosutinib with nilotinib and dasatinib in first-line (1L) CP-CML.

METHODS

Cross-trial heterogeneity in terms of patient baseline characteristics and imatinib dose escalation are difficult to adjust for in network meta-analyses and anchored matching-adjusted indirect treatment comparisons (MAICs). Therefore, an unanchored MAIC was performed using patient level data from bosutinib (BFORE trial) and published aggregated data from nilotinib (ENESTnd) and dasatinib (DASISION) trials. After matching, cytogenetic and molecular responses, and disease progression, after a minimum follow-up of 24 months were compared between nilotinib versus bosutinb and dasatinib versus bosutinib.

RESULTS

The comparison of nilotinib versus bosutinib resulted in no statistically significant differences for MMR at and by 24 months, MR4 by 24 months, MR4.5 at and by 24 months, CCyR by 24 months, and disease progression, however, a decreased odds of MR4 at 24 months in favor of bosutinib versus nilotinib was observed. The comparison of dasatinib versus bosutinib by 24 months resulted in no statistically significant differences for MMR, disease progression, and CCyR, however a decreased odds of MR4.5 in favor of bosutinib versus dasatinib was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, in these analyses bosutinib demonstrates equivalent efficacy to nilotinib and dasatinib in the treatment of patients with newly diagnosed CP-CML.

Dasatinib treatment long-term results among imatinib-resistant/intolerant patients with chronic phase chronic myeloid leukemia are favorable in daily clinical practice

To evaluate long-term real-life results of dasatinib therapy among chronic phase chronic myeloid leukemia patients resistant or intolerant to imatinib, we retrospectively analyzed data of 118 patients treated in centers participating in the database INFINITY. With median follow-up of 37 months, estimated 5-year cumulative incidences of complete cytogenetic and major molecular responses were 78% and 68%, respectively. The estimated 5-year probability of overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) were 86% and 83%, respectively. Both OS and EFS were significantly improved among patients with BCR-ABL1 transcript level ≤10% at 3 months. Dasatinib toxicity was tolerable however persistent in almost half our patients, even after years of therapy. Pleural effusion occurred in 29% of patients and was responsible for 30% of dasatinib discontinuations. Our results confirmed very good efficacy and acceptable toxicity of dasatinib in second line setting and support the evidence and importance of high-quality real-life CML patient management.

No advantage of Imatinib in combination with hydroxyurea over Imatinib monotherapy: a study of the East German Study Group (OSHO) and the German CML study group

INTRODUCTION

The combination of Imatinib (IM) and hydroxyurea (HU) was explored for the treatment of chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML).

METHOD

After in vitro testing and a phase I study (n = 20), 59 patients were randomized in the IM/HU and 29 in the IM arm. According to protocol, 49 propensity-score matched IM patients were included from the CML-IV study.

RESULTS

Additive specific inhibition of CML cells by IM/HU was detected in vitro. HU 500 mg qd in combination with IM 400 mg qd proved feasible in the phase I study. Overall, no significant difference with respect to major molecular response (MMR) at 18 months (IM/HU and IM 66%; primary endpoint) was observed. Significant differences were noted for MMR at 6 months (p = 0.04) and for cumulative incidences of adverse events (p = 0.03) in favor of IM monotherapy (secondary endpoints).

CONCLUSION

IM/HU combination was more potent in selectively inhibiting CML cells in vitro, but not superior to IM in vivo. (NCT02480608).

Clinical characteristics and prognostic significance of chronic myeloid leukemia with rare BCR-ABL1 transcripts

The prognostic significance of rare BCR-ABL1 transcripts is uncertain in the tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) era. In this retrospective study, 40 (1.7%) patients with rare BCR-ABL1 transcripts were identified from a cohort of 2331 chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients; 4 types of rare transcripts were identified, including e1a2 (0.9%), e19a2 (0.4%), e13a3 (0.1%), and e14a3 (0.3%). Compared to patients with the typical transcript, those with the e1a2 transcript had an inferior response to TKIs and a worse outcome. Patients with the e19a2 transcript had a high rate of early optimal response to TKIs, but most of them later lost the complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) due to BCR-ABL1 mutations, resulting in a poor prognosis. Patients with the e13a3/e14a3 transcript responded well to TKIs and had a good outcome. These findings indicate that the type of BCR-ABL1 transcript should be considered when determining the treatment for CML patients in the TKI era.

Issues possibly associated with misinterpreting survival data: A method study

OBJECTIVE

Proper interpretation of survival data of clinical cancer studies may be difficult and pitfalls related to the nature of Kaplan-Meier analyses might end up in mistaken inferences. The purpose of the present work is to raise awareness of those pitfalls and to prevent errors in future studies.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

While evaluating a randomized controlled trial, we came across some issues possibly associated with misinterpreting survival data. We thoroughly reviewed the reporting of survival analyses, statistical approaches, baseline characteristics, and choice of primary end point. The reported data were derived from people with high-risk neuroblastoma. Thus, the trial focused on survival. We reenacted survival functions by deducing the data of various treatment groups from pictured survival functions to estimate the concerning hazard ratios.

RESULTS

Opposed to the reporting of the trial, we did not identify a significant difference between treatment groups with respect to overall survival. We were not able to appreciate an effective crossing of survival curves. With respect to event-free survival, we focused on comparable treatment groups and we did not identify a significant difference between treatment groups, thereby again opposing the reporting of the trial.

CONCLUSIONS

The present work exemplifies statistical issues that were apparently difficult to detect and that are possibly associated with misinterpreting survival functions. These issues include assumed crossing of survival curves, statistical approach changed in follow-up, different pretreatment between groups, and event-free survival used as primary outcome. Careful handling might prevent similar potential misinterpretation in future studies.

Assessment of imatinib as first-line treatment of chronic myeloid leukemia: 10-year survival results of the randomized CML study IV and impact of non-CML determinants

Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML)-study IV was designed to explore whether treatment with imatinib (IM) at 400 mg/day (n=400) could be optimized by doubling the dose (n=420), adding interferon (IFN) (n=430) or cytarabine (n=158) or using IM after IFN-failure (n=128). From July 2002 to March 2012, 1551 newly diagnosed patients in chronic phase were randomized into a 5-arm study. The study was powered to detect a survival difference of 5% at 5 years. After a median observation time of 9.5 years, 10-year overall survival was 82%, 10-year progression-free survival was 80% and 10-year relative survival was 92%. Survival between IM400 mg and any experimental arm was not different. In a multivariate analysis, risk group, major-route chromosomal aberrations, comorbidities, smoking and treatment center (academic vs other) influenced survival significantly, but not any form of treatment optimization. Patients reaching the molecular response milestones at 3, 6 and 12 months had a significant survival advantage. For responders, monotherapy with IM400 mg provides a close to normal life expectancy independent of the time to response. Survival is more determined by patients' and disease factors than by initial treatment selection. Although improvements are also needed for refractory disease, more life-time can currently be gained by carefully addressing non-CML determinants of survival.

The BCR-ABL1 transcript type influences response and outcome in Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic myeloid leukemia patients treated frontline with imatinib

The most frequent BCR-ABL1 fusion transcripts in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) are the e13a2 (b2a2) and the e14a2 (b3a2) ones. In the imatinib era few studies addressing the prognostic significance of the BCR-ABL1 transcript type in early chronic phase CML have been published. Overall, these studies suggest that in e14a2 patients the response to imatinib is faster and deeper. To evaluate if the BCR-ABL1 transcript type (e13a2 compared to e14a2) affect the response to imatinib and the clinical outcome in newly diagnosed adult CML patients, 559 patients enrolled in 3 prospective studies (NCT00514488, NCT00510926, observational study CML/023) were analyzed. A qualitative PCR was performed at baseline: 52% patients had a e14a2 transcript, 37% a e13a2 transcript, 11% co-expressed both transcripts and 1% had other rare transcripts. The median follow-up was 76 months (95% of the patients had at least a 5-year observation). The complete cytogenetic response rates were comparable in e14a2 and e13a2 patients. The median time to MR^3.0 (6 and 12 months) and MR^4.0 (41 and 61 months) was significantly shorter for e14a2 patients compared to e13a2 patients, with a higher cumulative probability of MR^3.0 (88% and 83%, P < .001) and MR^4.0 (67% and 52%, P = .001). The 7-year overall survival (90% and 83%, P = .017), progression-free survival (89% and 81%, P = .005) and failure-free survival (71% and 54%, P < .001) were significantly better in patients with e14a2 transcript. In conclusion, patients with e13a2 transcript had a slower molecular response with inferior response rates to imatinib and a poorer long-term outcome.

ASXL1 and BIM germ line variants predict response and identify CML patients with the greatest risk of imatinib failure

Scoring systems used at diagnosis of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), such as Sokal risk, provide important response prediction for patients treated with imatinib. However, the sensitivity and specificity of scoring systems could be enhanced for improved identification of patients with the highest risk. We aimed to identify genomic predictive biomarkers of imatinib response at diagnosis to aid selection of first-line therapy. Targeted amplicon sequencing was performed to determine the germ line variant profile in 517 and 79 patients treated with first-line imatinib and nilotinib, respectively. The Sokal score and ASXL1 rs4911231 and BIM rs686952 variants were independent predictors of early molecular response (MR), major MR, deep MRs (MR⁴ and MR^4.5), and failure-free survival (FFS) with imatinib treatment. In contrast, the ASXL1 and BIM variants did not consistently predict MR or FFS with nilotinib treatment. In the imatinib-treated cohort, neither Sokal or the ASXL1 and BIM variants predicted overall survival (OS) or progression to accelerated phase or blast crisis (AP/BC). The Sokal risk score was combined with the ASXL1 and BIM variants in a classification tree model to predict imatinib response. The model distinguished an ultra-high-risk group, representing 10% of patients, that predicted inferior OS (88% vs 97%; P = .041), progression to AP/BC (12% vs 1%; P = .034), FFS (P < .001), and MRs (P < .001). The ultra-high-risk patients may be candidates for more potent or combination first-line therapy. These data suggest that germ line genetic variation contributes to the heterogeneity of response to imatinib and may contribute to a prognostic risk score that allows early optimization of therapy.

Nilotinib 300 mg twice daily: an academic single-arm study of newly diagnosed chronic phase chronic myeloid leukemia patients

The introduction and the extended clinical use of nilotinib in the first-line treatment of chronic myeloid leukemia have been based on company-sponsored trials. Independent confirmations are extremely important. We report an investigator-sponsored study of nilotinib 300 mg twice daily in 130 chronic myeloid leukemia patients in early chronic phase. A deep molecular response was achieved in 46% (MR^4.0) and 17% (MR^4.5) of patients at 2 years; 58% of the enrolled patients achieved a MR^4.0 at least once, with a sustained MR^4.0 in 52% of them. With a median observation of 29 months (range 24-37 months), 77% of patients were still on treatment with nilotinib. The reasons for permanent discontinuation were: 3% progression, 5% failure or suboptimal response, 8% adverse events, 1% treatment-free remission, and 5% other reasons. Thirteen thrombotic arterial events were reported in 12 patients. A prospective evaluation of metabolic effects showed an increase of fasting glucose without significant variations of glycated hemoglobin, an increase of total cholesterol (both low density lipoprotein and high density lipoprotein fractions) and a decrease of triglycerides. This study confirms a high and rapid efficacy of nilotinib 300 mg twice daily and provides detailed information on the type and incidence of non-hematologic and metabolic adverse events (clinicaltrials.gov identifier: 01535391).

[Leukemia research in Germany: the Competence Network Acute and Chronic Leukemias]

The Competence Network "Acute and Chronic Leukemias" was founded in 1997 by the consolidation of the leading leukemia study groups in Germany. Key results are the development of new trials and cooperative studies, the setup of patient registries and biobanking facilities, as well as the improvement of study infrastructure. In 2003, the concept of the competence network contributed to the foundation of the European LeukemiaNet (ELN). Synergy with the ELN resulted in cooperation on a European and international level, standardization of diagnostics and treatment, and recommendations for each leukemia and interdisciplinary specialty. The ultimate goal of the network is the cure of leukemia through cooperative research.

Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis Overestimates the Risk of Revision Arthroplasty: A Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Although Kaplan-Meier survival analysis is commonly used to estimate the cumulative incidence of revision after joint arthroplasty, it theoretically overestimates the risk of revision in the presence of competing risks (such as death). Because the magnitude of overestimation is not well documented, the potential associated impact on clinical and policy decision-making remains unknown.

QUESTIONS/PURPOSES

We performed a meta-analysis to answer the following questions: (1) To what extent does the Kaplan-Meier method overestimate the cumulative incidence of revision after joint replacement compared with alternative competing-risks methods? (2) Is the extent of overestimation influenced by followup time or rate of competing risks?

METHODS

We searched Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS Previews, and Web of Science (1946, 1980, 1980, and 1899, respectively, to October 26, 2013) and included article bibliographies for studies comparing estimated cumulative incidence of revision after hip or knee arthroplasty obtained using both Kaplan-Meier and competing-risks methods. We excluded conference abstracts, unpublished studies, or studies using simulated data sets. Two reviewers independently extracted data and evaluated the quality of reporting of the included studies. Among 1160 abstracts identified, six studies were included in our meta-analysis. The principal reason for the steep attrition (1160 to six) was that the initial search was for studies in any clinical area that compared the cumulative incidence estimated using the Kaplan-Meier versus competing-risks methods for any event (not just the cumulative incidence of hip or knee revision); we did this to minimize the likelihood of missing any relevant studies. We calculated risk ratios (RRs) comparing the cumulative incidence estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method with the competing-risks method for each study and used DerSimonian and Laird random effects models to pool these RRs. Heterogeneity was explored using stratified meta-analyses and metaregression.

RESULTS

The pooled cumulative incidence of revision after hip or knee arthroplasty obtained using the Kaplan-Meier method was 1.55 times higher (95% confidence interval, 1.43-1.68; p < 0.001) than that obtained using the competing-risks method. Longer followup times and higher proportions of competing risks were not associated with increases in the amount of overestimation of revision risk by the Kaplan-Meier method (all p > 0.10). This may be due to the small number of studies that met the inclusion criteria and conservative variance approximation.

CONCLUSIONS

The Kaplan-Meier method overestimates risk of revision after hip or knee arthroplasty in populations where competing risks (such as death) might preclude the occurrence of the event of interest (revision). Competing-risks methods should be used to more accurately estimate the cumulative incidence of revision when the goal is to plan healthcare services and resource allocation for revisions.

Prognosis of long-term survival considering disease-specific death in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia

In patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), first-line imatinib treatment leads to 8-year overall survival (OS) probabilities above 80%. Many patients die of reasons unrelated to CML. This work tackled the reassessment of prognosis under particular consideration of the probabilities of dying of CML. Analyses were based on 2290 patients with chronic phase CML treated with imatinib in six clinical trials. 'Death due to CML' was defined by death after disease progression. At 8 years, OS was 89%. Of 208 deceased patients, 44% died of CML. Higher age, more peripheral blasts, bigger spleen and low platelet counts were significantly associated with increased probabilities of dying of CML and determined a new long-term survival score with three prognostic groups. Compared with the low-risk group, the patients of the intermediate- and the high-risk group had significantly higher probabilities of dying of CML. The score was successfully validated in an independent sample of 1120 patients. In both samples, the new score differentiated probabilities of dying of CML better than the Sokal, Euro and the European Treatment and Outcome Study (EUTOS) score. The new score identified 61% low-risk patients with excellent long-term outcome and 12% high-risk patients. The new score supports the prospective assessment of long-term antileukemic efficacy and risk-adapted treatment.

Impact of unbalanced minor route versus major route karyotypes at diagnosis on prognosis of CML

Major route additional cytogenetic aberrations (ACA) at diagnosis of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) indicate an increased risk of progression and shorter survival. Since major route ACA are almost always unbalanced, it is unclear whether other unbalanced ACA at diagnosis also confer an unfavourable prognosis. On the basis of 1348 Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic phase patients of the randomized CML study IV, we examined the impact of unbalanced minor route ACA at diagnosis versus major route ACA on prognosis. At diagnosis, 1175 patients (87.2 %) had a translocation t(9;22)(q34;q11) and 74 (5.5 %) a variant translocation t(v;22) only, while a loss of the Y chromosome (-Y) was present in addition in 44 (3.3 %), balanced or unbalanced minor route ACA each in 17 (1.3 %) and major route ACA in 21 (1.6 %) cases. Patients with unbalanced minor route ACA had no significantly different cumulative incidences of complete cytogenetic remission or major molecular remission and no significantly different progression-free survival (PFS) or overall survival (OS) than patients with t(9;22), t(v;22), -Y and balanced minor route karyotypes. In contrast, patients with major route ACA had a shorter OS and PFS than all other groups (all pairwise comparisons to each of the other groups: p ≤ 0.015). Five-year survival probabilities were for t(9;22) 91.4 % (95 % CI 89.5-93.1), t(v; 22) 87 % (77.2-94.3), -Y 89.0 % (76.7-97.0), balanced 100 %, unbalanced minor route 92.3 % (72.4-100) and major route 52.2 % (28.2-75.5). We conclude that only major route, but not balanced or unbalanced minor route ACA at diagnosis, has a negative impact on prognosis of CML.

Long-term outcome of chronic myeloid leukemia patients treated frontline with imatinib

For almost 10 years imatinib has been the therapeutic standard of chronic myeloid leukemia. The introduction of other tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) raised a debate on treatment optimization. The debate is still heated: some studies have protocol restrictions or limited follow-up; in other studies, some relevant data are missing. The aim of this report is to provide a comprehensive, long-term, intention-to-treat, analysis of 559 newly diagnosed, chronic-phase, patients treated frontline with imatinib. With a minimum follow-up of 66 months, 65% of patients were still on imatinib, 19% were on alternative treatment, 12% died and 4% were lost to follow-up. The prognostic value of BCR-ABL1 ratio at 3 months (⩽10% in 81% of patients) was confirmed. The prognostic value of complete cytogenetic response and major molecular response at 1 year was confirmed. The 6-year overall survival was 89%, but as 50% of deaths occurred in remission, the 6-year cumulative incidence of leukemia-related death was 5%. The long-term outcome of first-line imatinib was excellent, also because of second-line treatment with other TKIs, but all responses and outcomes were inferior in high-risk patients, suggesting that to optimize treatment results, a specific risk-adapted treatment is needed for such patients.

Impact of comorbidities on overall survival in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia: results of the randomized CML study IV

We studied the influence of comorbidities on remission rate and overall survival (OS) in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). Participants of the CML Study IV, a randomized 5-arm trial designed to optimize imatinib therapy, were analyzed for comorbidities at diagnosis using the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI); 511 indexed comorbidities were reported in 1519 CML patients. Age was an additional risk factor in 863 patients. Resulting CCI scores were as follows: CCI 2, n = 589; CCI 3 or 4, n = 599; CCI 5 or 6, n = 229; and CCI ≥ 7, n = 102. No differences in cumulative incidences of accelerated phase, blast crisis, or remission rates were observed between patients in the different CCI groups. Higher CCI was significantly associated with lower OS probabilities. The 8-year OS probabilities were 93.6%, 89.4%, 77.6%, and 46.4% for patients with CCI 2, 3 to 4, 5 to 6, and ≥7, respectively. In multivariate analysis, CCI was the most powerful predictor of OS, which was still valid after removal of its age-related components. Comorbidities have no impact on treatment success but do have a negative effect on OS, indicating that survival of patients with CML is determined more by comorbidities than by CML itself. OS may therefore be inappropriate as an outcome measure for specific CML treatments. The trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00055874.

Prognostic scores for patients with chronic myeloid leukemia under particular consideration of competing causes of death

Nowadays in many fields of medicine, prognostic scores are used to predict the outcome for individual patients. In chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), the Sokal, the Euro, and the EUTOS score are established prognostic scores which were addressed by the CML management recommendations of the European LeukemiaNet. This review provides a general definition of prognostic scores and explains their meaning. Main differences between the Sokal, the Euro, and the EUTOS score are highlighted. Due to the therapeutic success of tyrosine kinase inhibitors, the proportion of patients with causes of death unrelated to CML is growing. To assess the potential of a drug to prevent dying of CML, causes of death unrelated to CML need to be considered as competing risks. Supported by data of patients randomized to imatinib-based treatments within the German CML study IV, this review also explores the prognostic performance of the established scores if the primary event is death due to CML only and explains the implicit statistical particularities when treating other causes of death as competing risks. In the presence of competing risks, the application of both the cause-specific hazard model and the subdistribution hazard model is recommended when investigating the influence of prognostic factors on the event of interest. Another purpose of this work is to foster the ability of hematologists to interpret the outcome of a cause-specific hazard and a subdistribution hazard model and to understand the differences between them.

Safety and efficacy of imatinib in CML over a period of 10 years: data from the randomized CML-study IV

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) have changed the natural course of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). With the advent of second-generation TKI safety and efficacy issues have gained interest. The randomized CML - Study IV was used for a long-term evaluation of imatinib (IM). 1503 patients have received IM, 1379 IM monotherapy. After a median observation of 7.1 years, 965 patients (64%) still received IM. At 10 years, progression-free survival was 82%, overall survival 84%, 59% achieved MR(5), 72% MR(4.5), 81% MR(4), 89% major molecular remission and 92% MR(2) (molecular equivalent to complete cytogenetic remission). All response levels were reached faster with IM800 mg except MR(5). Eight-year probabilities of adverse drug reactions (ADR) were 76%, of grades 3-4 22%, of non-hematologic 73%, and of hematologic 28%. More ADR were observed with IM800 mg and IM400 mg plus interferon α (IFN). Most patients had their first ADR early with decreasing frequency later on. No new late toxicity was observed. ADR to IM are frequent, but mostly mild and manageable, also with IM 800 mg and IM 400 mg+IFN. The deep molecular response rates indicate that most patients are candidates for IM discontinuation. After 10 years, IM continues to be an excellent initial choice for most patients with CML.

Differences among young adults, adults and elderly chronic myeloid leukemia patients

BACKGROUND

The incidence of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) increases with age, but it is unclear how the characteristics of the disease vary with age. In children, where CML is very rare, it presents with more aggressive features, including huge splenomegaly, higher cell count and higher blast cell percentage.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

To investigate if after childhood the disease maintains or loses these characteristics of aggressiveness, we analyzed 2784 adult patients, at least 18 years old, registered by GIMEMA CML WP over a 40-year period.

RESULTS

Young adults (YAs: 18-29 years old) significantly differed from adults (30-59 years old) and elderly patients (at least 60 years old) particularly for the frequency of splenomegaly (71%, 63% and 55%, P < 0.001), and the greater spleen size (median value: 4.5, 3.0 and 1.0 cm, P < 0.001). According to the EUTOS score, that is age-independent, high-risk patients were more frequent among YAs, than among adult and elderly patients (18%, 9% and 6%, P < 0.001). In tyrosine kinase inhibitors-treated patients, the rates of complete cytogenetic and major molecular response were lower in YAs, and the probability of transformation was higher (16%, 5% and 7%, P = 0.011).

CONCLUSIONS

The characteristics of CML or the host response to leukemia differ with age. The knowledge of these differences and of their causes may help to refine the treatment and to improve the outcome.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBERS

NCT00510926, NCT00514488, NCT00769327, NCT00481052.

TIDEL-II: first-line use of imatinib in CML with early switch to nilotinib for failure to achieve time-dependent molecular targets

The Therapeutic Intensification in De Novo Leukaemia (TIDEL)-II study enrolled 210 patients with chronic phase chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) in two equal, sequential cohorts. All started treatment with imatinib 600 mg/day. Imatinib plasma trough level was performed at day 22 and if <1000 ng/mL, imatinib 800 mg/day was given. Patients were then assessed against molecular targets: BCR-ABL1 ≤10%, ≤1%, and ≤0.1% at 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively. Cohort 1 patients failing any target escalated to imatinib 800 mg/day, and subsequently switched to nilotinib 400 mg twice daily for failing the same target 3 months later. Cohort 2 patients failing any target switched to nilotinib directly, as did patients with intolerance or loss of response in either cohort. At 2 years, 55% of patients remained on imatinib, and 30% on nilotinib. Only 12% were >10% BCR-ABL1 at 3 months. Confirmed major molecular response was achieved in 64% at 12 months and 73% at 24 months. MR4.5 (BCR-ABL1 ≤0.0032%) at 24 months was 34%. Overall survival was 96% and transformation-free survival was 95% at 3 years. This trial supports the feasibility and efficacy of an imatinib-based approach with selective, early switching to nilotinib. This trial was registered at www.anzctr.org.au as #12607000325404.

Analyzing molecular response in chronic myeloid leukemia clinical trials: pitfalls and golden rules

Clinical trials of chronic myeloid leukemia frequently rely on molecular markers as surrogates for clinical endpoints. Studies suggest that early molecular response (EMR) is a good indicator of a favorable prognosis and yet, to the authors' knowledge, the use of EMR as a robust surrogate marker for clinical response has yet to be fully explored. EMR to therapy appears to be affected by a variety of factors, including disease characteristics, risk score, adherence to treatment, and off-target effects of the treatment. Therefore, although molecular markers improve important research, they also bring with them important questions regarding their reliability. To be useful, markers must be must be easily measureable, capable of generating meaningful data, and clinically relevant. BCR-ABL1 is the hallmark marker in chronic myeloid leukemia. Nevertheless, investigators still struggle with how best to measure and interpret both high and very low BCR-ABL1 levels. Statistical models of BCR-ABL1 kinetics must address these concerns and account for the BCR-ABL1 variability between and within patients. Response models should also incorporate disease characteristics and other important parameters.

Older patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (≥65 years) profit more from higher imatinib doses than younger patients: a subanalysis of the randomized CML-Study IV

The impact of imatinib dose on response rates and survival in older patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase has not been studied well. We analyzed data from the German CML-Study IV, a randomized five-arm treatment optimization study in newly diagnosed BCR-ABL-positive chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase. Patients randomized to imatinib 400 mg/day (IM400) or imatinib 800 mg/day (IM800) and stratified according to age (≥65 years vs. <65 years) were compared regarding dose, response, adverse events, rates of progression, and survival. The full 800 mg dose was given after a 6-week run-in period with imatinib 400 mg/day. The dose could then be reduced according to tolerability. A total of 828 patients were randomized to IM400 or IM800. Seven hundred eighty-four patients were evaluable (IM400, 382; IM800, 402). One hundred ten patients (29 %) on IM400 and 83 (21 %) on IM800 were ≥65 years. The median dose per day was lower for patients ≥65 years on IM800, with the highest median dose in the first year (466 mg/day for patients ≥65 years vs. 630 mg/day for patients <65 years). Older patients on IM800 achieved major molecular remission and deep molecular remission as fast as younger patients, in contrast to standard dose imatinib with which older patients achieved remissions much later than younger patients. Grades 3 and 4 adverse events were similar in both age groups. Five-year relative survival for older patients was comparable to that of younger patients. We suggest that the optimal dose for older patients is higher than 400 mg/day. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00055874

Balancing risks and benefits of therapy for patients with favorable-risk limited-stage Hodgkin lymphoma: the role of doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine chemotherapy alone

Because long-term survival of patients with nonbulky stage IA to IIA Hodgkin lymphoma is dependent on disease control and avoidance of late toxic effects associated with the treatment received, the initial choice of treatment can be associated with trade-offs that balance optimum disease control with avoidance of these late effect risks. Health professionals and patients face the dilemma of making treatment decisions without the benefit of completely understanding the risk-benefit balances associated with how current treatments affect all outcomes of interest. Optimum management of these patients requires careful multidisciplinary evaluation and communication strategies that account for patient preferences.

Prognosis for patients with CML and >10% BCR-ABL1 after 3 months of imatinib depends on the rate of BCR-ABL1 decline

In chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients, a breakpoint cluster region-Abelson (BCR-ABL1) value >10% at 3 months of therapy is statistically associated with poorer outcome, yet many of these patients still achieve satisfactory outcomes. We investigated 528 first-line imatinib-treated patients to determine whether patients with the poorest outcome can be better discriminated at 3 months. All outcomes were significantly superior for the 410 patients with BCR-ABL1 ≤10% at 3 months (P < .001). However, the poorest outcomes among the 95 evaluable patients with BCR-ABL1 >10% at 3 months were identified by the rate of BCR-ABL1 decline from baseline, assessed by estimating the number of days over which BCR-ABL1 halved. Patients with BCR-ABL1 halving time <76 days (n = 74) had significantly superior outcomes compared with patients whose BCR-ABL1 values did not halve by 76 days (n = 21; 4-year overall survival, 95% vs 58%, P = .0002; progression-free survival, 92% vs 63%, P = .008; failure-free survival, 59% vs 6%, P < .0001; and major molecular response, 54% vs 5%, P = .008). By multivariate analysis, the halving time was an independent predictor of outcome in this poor risk group. Our study highlighted that the rate of BCR-ABL1 decline may be a critical prognostic discriminator of the patients with very poor outcome among those >10% at 3 months. The International Randomized IFN vs STI571 (IRIS) trial was registered at http://www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00006343. The Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor Optimization and Selectivity (TOPS) trial was registered at http://www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00124748. The Therapeutic Intensification in DE-novo Leukaemia (TIDEL) I trial was registered at http://www.ANZCTR.org.au as #ACTRN12607000614493. The TIDEL II trial was registered at http://www.ANZCTR.org.au as #ACTRN12607000325404.

Distinct characteristics of e13a2 versus e14a2 BCR-ABL1 driven chronic myeloid leukemia under first-line therapy with imatinib

The vast majority of chronic myeloid leukemia patients express a BCR-ABL1 fusion gene mRNA encoding a 210 kDa tyrosine kinase which promotes leukemic transformation. A possible differential impact of the corresponding BCR-ABL1 transcript variants e13a2 ("b2a2") and e14a2 ("b3a2") on disease phenotype and outcome is still a subject of debate. A total of 1105 newly diagnosed imatinib-treated patients were analyzed according to transcript type at diagnosis (e13a2, n=451; e14a2, n=496; e13a2+e14a2, n=158). No differences regarding age, sex, or Euro risk score were observed. A significant difference was found between e13a2 and e14a2 when comparing white blood cells (88 vs. 65 × 10(9)/L, respectively; P<0.001) and platelets (296 vs. 430 × 10(9)/L, respectively; P<0.001) at diagnosis, indicating a distinct disease phenotype. No significant difference was observed regarding other hematologic features, including spleen size and hematologic adverse events, during imatinib-based therapies. Cumulative molecular response was inferior in e13a2 patients (P=0.002 for major molecular response; P<0.001 for MR4). No difference was observed with regard to cytogenetic response and overall survival. In conclusion, e13a2 and e14a2 chronic myeloid leukemia seem to represent distinct biological entities. However, clinical outcome under imatinib treatment was comparable and no risk prediction can be made according to e13a2 versus e14a2 BCR-ABL1 transcript type at diagnosis. (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:00055874).

Deep Molecular Response Is Reached by the Majority of Patients Treated With Imatinib, Predicts Survival, and Is Achieved More Quickly by Optimized High-Dose Imatinib: Results From the Randomized CML-Study IV

Purpose

Deep molecular response (MR4.5) defines a subgroup of patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) who may stay in unmaintained remission after treatment discontinuation. It is unclear how many patients achieve MR4.5 under different treatment modalities and whether MR4.5 predicts survival.

Patients and Methods

Patients from the randomized CML-Study IV were analyzed for confirmed MR4.5 which was defined as ≥ 4.5 log reduction of BCR-ABL on the international scale (IS) and determined by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction in two consecutive analyses. Landmark analyses were performed to assess the impact of MR4.5 on survival.

Results

Of 1,551 randomly assigned patients, 1,524 were assessable. After a median observation time of 67.5 months, 5-year overall survival (OS) was 90%, 5-year progression-free-survival was 87.5%, and 8-year OS was 86%. The cumulative incidence of MR4.5 after 9 years was 70% (median, 4.9 years); confirmed MR4.5 was 54%. MR4.5 was reached more quickly with optimized high-dose imatinib than with imatinib 400 mg/day (P = .016). Independent of treatment approach, confirmed MR4.5 at 4 years predicted significantly higher survival probabilities than 0.1% to 1% IS, which corresponds to complete cytogenetic remission (8-year OS, 92% v 83%; P = .047). High-dose imatinib and early major molecular remission predicted MR4.5. No patient with confirmed MR4.5 has experienced progression.

Conclusion

MR4.5 is a new molecular predictor of long-term outcome, is reached by a majority of patients treated with imatinib, and is achieved more quickly with optimized high-dose imatinib, which may provide an improved therapeutic basis for treatment discontinuation in CML.

Younger patients with chronic myeloid leukemia do well in spite of poor prognostic indicators: results from the randomized CML study IV

Since the advent of tyrosine kinase inhibitors, the impact of age on outcome of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients has changed. We therefore analyzed patients from the randomized CML study IV to investigate disease manifestations and outcome in different age groups. One thousand five hundred twenty-four patients with BCR-ABL-positive chronic phase CML were divided into four age groups: (1) 16–29 years, n = 120; (2) 30–44 years, n = 383; (3) 45–59 years, n = 495; and (4) ≥60 years, n = 526. Group 1 (adolescents and young adults (AYAs)) presented with more aggressive disease features (larger spleen size, more frequent symptoms of organomegaly, higher white blood count, higher percentage of peripheral blasts and lower hemoglobin levels) than the other age groups. In addition, a higher rate of patients with BCR-ABL transcript levels >10 % on the international scale (IS) at 3 months was observed. After a median observation time of 67.5 months, no inferior survival and no differences in cytogenetic and molecular remissions or progression rates were observed. We conclude that AYAs show more aggressive features and poor prognostic indicators possibly indicating differences in disease biology. This, however, does not affect outcome.

An individual patient-data comparison of combined modality therapy and ABVD alone for patients with limited-stage Hodgkin lymphoma

BACKGROUND

Treatment options for patients with nonbulky stage IA-IIA Hodgkin lymphoma include combined modality therapy (CMT) using doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine and dacarbazine (ABVD) plus involved-field radiation therapy (IFRT), and chemotherapy with ABVD alone. There are no mature randomized data comparing ABVD with CMT using modern radiation techniques.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Using German Hodgkin Study Group HD10/HD11 and NCIC Clinical Trials Group HD.6 databases, we identified 588 patients who met mutually inclusive eligibility criteria from the preferred arms of HD10 or 11 (n = 406) and HD.6 (n = 182). We evaluated time to progression (TTP), progression-free (PFS) and overall survival, including in three predefined exploratory subset analyses.

RESULTS

With median follow-up of 91 (HD10/11) and 134 (HD.6) months, respective 8-year outcomes were for TTP, 93% versus 87% [hazard ratio (HR) 0.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.24-0.78]; for PFS, 89% versus 86% (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.42-1.18) and for overall survival, 95% versus 95% (HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.49-2.40). In the exploratory subset analysis including HD10 eligible patients who achieved complete response (CR) or unconfirmed complete response (CRu) after two cycles of ABVD, 8-year PFS was 87% (HD10) versus 95% (HD.6) (HR 2.8; 95% CI 0.64-12.5) and overall survival 96% versus 100%. In contrast, among those without CR/CRu after two cycles of ABVD, 8-year PFS was 88% versus 74% (HR 0.35; 95% CI 0.16-0.79) and overall survival 95% versus 91%, respectively (HR 0.42; 95% CI 0.12-1.44).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with nonbulky stage IA-IIA Hodgkin lymphoma, CMT provides better disease control than ABVD alone, especially among those not achieving complete response after two cycles of ABVD. Within the follow-up duration evaluated, overall survivals were similar. Longer follow-up is required to understand the implications of radiation and chemotherapy-related late effects.

CLINICAL TRIALS

The trials included in this analysis were registered at ClinicalTrials.gov: HD10 - NCT00265018, HD11 - NCT00264953, HD.6 - NCT00002561.

European LeukemiaNet recommendations for the management of chronic myeloid leukemia: 2013

Advances in chronic myeloid leukemia treatment, particularly regarding tyrosine kinase inhibitors, mandate regular updating of concepts and management. A European LeukemiaNet expert panel reviewed prior and new studies to update recommendations made in 2009. We recommend as initial treatment imatinib, nilotinib, or dasatinib. Response is assessed with standardized real quantitative polymerase chain reaction and/or cytogenetics at 3, 6, and 12 months. BCR-ABL1 transcript levels ≤10% at 3 months, <1% at 6 months, and ≤0.1% from 12 months onward define optimal response, whereas >10% at 6 months and >1% from 12 months onward define failure, mandating a change in treatment. Similarly, partial cytogenetic response (PCyR) at 3 months and complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) from 6 months onward define optimal response, whereas no CyR (Philadelphia chromosome-positive [Ph+] >95%) at 3 months, less than PCyR at 6 months, and less than CCyR from 12 months onward define failure. Between optimal and failure, there is an intermediate warning zone requiring more frequent monitoring. Similar definitions are provided for response to second-line therapy. Specific recommendations are made for patients in the accelerated and blastic phases, and for allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Optimal responders should continue therapy indefinitely, with careful surveillance, or they can be enrolled in controlled studies of treatment discontinuation once a deeper molecular response is achieved.

The EUTOS prognostic score: review and validation in 1288 patients with CML treated frontline with imatinib

The introduction of tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) in the treatment of Philadelphia chromosome-positive (Ph+) chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) has revolutionized the outcome, but the prognosis of the disease is still based on prognostic systems that were developed in the era of conventional chemotherapy and interferon (IFN)-alfa. A new prognostic score including only two variables, spleen size and basophils, was developed for the prediction of complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) and progression-free survival (PFS). The score was based on a large series of patients who were enrolled in prospective multicenter studies of first-line imatinib treatment. The prognostic value of the EUTOS (European Treatment and Outcome Study for CML) score has now been tested in an independent, multicenter, multinational series of 1288 patients who were treated first-line with imatinib outside prospective studies. It was found that also in these patients, the EUTOS prognostic score was predictive for CCyR, PFS and overall survival (OS). In addition, the prognostic value of the score was reported to be significant in seven of the eight other independent studies of almost 2000 patients that were performed in Europe, the Americas and Asia. The EUTOS risk score is a valid tool for the prediction of the therapeutic effects of TKI, particularly imatinib.

Early molecular response and female sex strongly predict stable undetectable BCR-ABL1, the criteria for imatinib discontinuation in patients with CML

Recent studies have demonstrated that some patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) can maintain remission after discontinuation of imatinib. A prerequisite is stable, undetectable BCR-ABL1. It is not known how many patients achieve this response or the factors associated with its achievement. We examined 423 de novo imatinib-treated patients to determine the cumulative incidence of achieving the discontinuation criteria as defined in the CML8 study (≥2 years of undetectable BCR-ABL1 [Stable MR(4.5)]), and predictive factors. After 8 years of imatinib, the cumulative incidence of Stable MR(4.5) was 36.5%. Therefore, 9% to 15% of first-line imatinib-treated patients would maintain remission after discontinuation. The BCR-ABL1 level at 3 months and factors at diagnosis were examined for association with Stable MR(4.5): Sokal risk, age, sex, and assigned imatinib dose. The only independent predictors were female sex (54.4% vs 27.2%; P = .018) and the 3-month BCR-ABL1 (P < .001). The highest cumulative incidence of Stable MR(4.5) after 8 years was 78.2% for patients with BCR-ABL1 ≤ 0.10%(IS) at 3 months (n = 38). Time to major molecular response (MMR) influenced the time to reach Stable MR(4.5) (P < .001), suggesting slower dynamics of response with a delayed MMR. The findings justify the focus on rapid reduction of BCR-ABL1 as a strategy to maximize potential suitability for imatinib discontinuation studies. The Iris trial was registered at http://www.clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00006343. The Tops trial was registered at http://www.clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00124748. The TIDEL I trial was registered at www.ANZCTR.org.au as ACTRN12607000614493. The TIDEL II trial was registered at www.ANZCTR.org.au as ACTRN12607000325404.

Has the time for first-line treatment with second generation tyrosine kinase inhibitors in patients with chronic myelogenous leukemia already come? Systematic review and meta-analysis

Second generation tyrosine kinase inhibitors have recently been introduced as first-line treatment for chronic phase chronic myelogenous leukemia. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of 2(nd) generation tyrosine kinase inhibitors versus imatinib as first-line treatment for these patients. We carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing 2(nd) generation tyrosine kinase inhibitors to imatinib as first-line treatment in chronic phase chronic myelogenous leukemia patients. Outcomes assessed were: complete cytogenetic response and major molecular response at 12, 18 and 24 months, all-cause mortality and progression to accelerated phase/blastic crisis at 12, 18 and 24 months, and chronic myelogenous leukemia related mortality and toxicity at last follow up. Relative risks were estimated and pooled using a fixed effect model. Our search yielded four trials including 2,120 patients. At 12 months, treatment with 2(nd) generation tyrosine kinase inhibitors significantly improved both complete cytogenetic response and major molecular response (relative risk 1.16, 95% CI: 1.09-1.23, and 1.68, 95% CI: 1.48-1.91, respectively). While major molecular response was improved at all time points, complete cytogenetic response improved at 18 months but not at 24 months. Importantly, rate of progression to accelerated phase/blastic crisis was significantly lower with the newer tyrosine kinase inhibitors throughout all time points. Second generation tyrosine kinase inhibitors improved chronic myelogenous leukemia related mortality without a statistically significant difference in all-cause mortality at 12, 18 and 24 months. We conclude that 2(nd) generation tyrosine kinase inhibitors can be added safely to the first-line treatment armamentarium of chronic phase chronic myelogenous leukemia patients. Although an advantage is suggested by surrogate parameters, longer follow up is necessary to see if this translates into superior overall survival.

Clinical trials in chronic myeloid leukemia

The introduction of the tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) imatinib in the treatment of Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) has substantially improved the outcome of CML patients. Despite the positive results, problems and questions remained. This was the rationale to setup trials for treatment optimization, where imatinib was administered in higher dose and/or in combination with other therapy but where also new and potentially more efficacious second-generation TKI, nilotinib and dasatinib, were investigated. This review summarizes data of recently published first-line studies with the standard treatment imatinib 400 mg as one study arm. Results of randomized comparisons to higher-dose imatinib treatment, nilotinib or dasatinib are discussed. With regard to outcome interpretation, general aspects on statistical issues and endpoint definitions are put into focus. Considering decidedly increased longevity thanks to TKI treatment, future research should include the evaluation of the quality of life (QoL). Relating also to QoL, safe ways of drug discontinuation need to be investigated.

Definitions, methodological and statistical issues for phase 3 clinical trials in chronic myeloid leukemia: a proposal by the European LeukemiaNet

The treatment policy of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), particularly with tyrosine kinase inhibitors, has been influenced by several recent studies that were well designed and rapidly performed, but their interpretation is of some concern because different end points and methodologies were used. To understand and compare the results of the previous and future studies and to translate their conclusion into clinical practice, there is a need for common definitions and methods for analyses of CML studies. A panel of experts was appointed by the European LeukemiaNet with the aim of developing a set of definitions and recommendations to be used in design, analyses, and reporting of phase 3 clinical trials in this disease. This paper summarizes the consensus of the panel on events and major end points of interest in CML. It also focuses on specific issues concerning the intention-to-treat principle and longitudinal data analyses in the context of long-term follow-up. The panel proposes that future clinical trials follow these recommendations.

Early molecular and cytogenetic response is predictive for long-term progression-free and overall survival in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML)

In the face of competing first-line treatment options for CML, early prediction of prognosis on imatinib is desirable to assure favorable survival or otherwise consider the use of a second-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI). A total of 1303 newly diagnosed imatinib-treated patients (pts) were investigated to correlate molecular and cytogenetic response at 3 and 6 months with progression-free and overall survival (PFS, OS). The persistence of BCR-ABL transcript levels >10% according to the international scale (BCR-ABL(IS)) at 3 months separated a high-risk group (28% of pts; 5-year OS: 87%) from a group with >1-10% BCR-ABL(IS) (41% of pts; 5-year OS: 94%; P=0.012) and from a group with ≤1% BCR-ABL(IS) (31% of pts; 5-year OS: 97%; P=0.004). Cytogenetics identified high-risk pts by >35% Philadelphia chromosome-positive metaphases (Ph+, 27% of pts; 5-year OS: 87%) compared with ≤35% Ph+ (73% of pts; 5-year OS: 95%; P=0.036). At 6 months, >1% BCR-ABL(IS) (37% of pts; 5-year OS: 89%) was associated with inferior survival compared with ≤1% (63% of pts; 5-year OS: 97%; P<0.001) and correspondingly >0% Ph+ (34% of pts; 5-year OS: 91%) compared with 0% Ph+ (66% of pts; 5-year OS: 97%; P=0.015). Treatment optimization is recommended for pts missing these landmarks.

Impact of additional cytogenetic aberrations at diagnosis on prognosis of CML: long-term observation of 1151 patients from the randomized CML Study IV

The prognostic relevance of additional cytogenetic findings at diagnosis of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is unclear. The impact of additional cytogenetic findings at diagnosis on time to complete cytogenetic (CCR) and major molecular remission (MMR) and progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) was analyzed using data from 1151 Philadelphia chromosome-positive (Ph(+)) CML patients randomized to the German CML Study IV. At diagnosis, 1003 of 1151 patients (87%) had standard t(9;22)(q34;q11) only, 69 patients (6.0%) had variant t(v;22), and 79 (6.9%) additional cytogenetic aberrations (ACAs). Of these, 38 patients (3.3%) lacked the Y chromosome (-Y) and 41 patients (3.6%) had ACAs except -Y; 16 of these (1.4%) were major route (second Philadelphia [Ph] chromosome, trisomy 8, isochromosome 17q, or trisomy 19) and 25 minor route (all other) ACAs. After a median observation time of 5.3 years for patients with t(9;22), t(v;22), -Y, minor- and major-route ACAs, the 5-year PFS was 90%, 81%, 88%, 96%, and 50%, and the 5-year OS was 92%, 87%, 91%, 96%, and 53%, respectively. In patients with major-route ACAs, the times to CCR and MMR were longer and PFS and OS were shorter (P < .001) than in patients with standard t(9;22). We conclude that major-route ACAs at diagnosis are associated with a negative impact on survival and signify progression to the accelerated phase and blast crisis.