Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk/Effects of changes in climate and land use/Climate change and extinction risk (reply)

Tracking parallel adaptation of shell morphology through geological times in the land snail genus Pupilla (Gastropoda: Stylommatophora: Pupillidae)

Changing environmental conditions force species either to disperse or to adapt locally either genetically or via phenotypic plasticity. Although limits of plasticity can be experimentally tested, the predictability of genetic adaptation is restricted due to its stochastic nature. Nevertheless, our understanding of evolutionary adaptation has been improving in particular through studies of parallel adaptation. Based on molecular phylogenetic inferences and morphological investigations of both recent and fossil shells we tracked the morphological changes in three land snails, Pupilla alpicola, Pupilla loessica and Pupilla muscorum. These species differ in habitat requirements as well as historical and extant distributions with P. alpicola and P. loessica being more similar to each other than to P. muscorum. Therefore, we hypothesized, that the three species reacted independently and individually to the conditions changing throughout the Pleistocene, but expected that changes within P. alpicola and P. loessica would be more similar compared to P. muscorum. Indeed, intraspecific shell shape differences across time were similar in P. alpicola and P. loessica, suggesting that similar niche shifts have led to similar transformations in parallel. In contrast, extant P. muscorum populations were practically identical in shape to their ancestors. They have probably tracked their ecological niches through time.

Sea surface temperature predicts the movements of an Arctic cetacean: the bowhead whale

The effects of climate change constitute a major concern in Arctic waters due to the rapid decline of sea ice, which may strongly alter the movements and habitat availability of Arctic marine mammals. We tracked 98 bowhead whales by satellite over an 11-year period (2001-2011) in Baffin Bay - West Greenland to investigate the environmental drivers (specifically sea surface temperature and sea ice) involved in bowhead whale's movements. Movement patterns differed according to season, with aggregations of whales found at higher latitudes during spring and summer likely in response to sea-ice retreat and increasing sea temperature (SST) facilitated by the warm West Greenland Current. In contrast, the whales moved further south in response to sea temperature decrease during autumn and winter. Statistical models indicated that the whales targeted a narrow range of SSTs from -0.5 to 2 °C. Sea surface temperatures are predicted to undergo a marked increase in the Arctic, which could expose bowhead whales to both thermal stress and altered stratification and vertical transport of water masses. With such profound changes, bowhead whales may face extensive habitat loss. Our results highlight the need for closer investigation and monitoring in order to predict the extent of future distribution changes.

Hotspots of biodiversity and ecosystem services: the Outermost Regions and Overseas Countries and Territories of the European Union

The obligations of the EU Biodiversity Strategy 2020 create a need for mapping and assessment of the state of biodiversity, ecosystems and their services in all European member states. Europe’s nine Outermost Regions (ORs) and 25 Overseas Countries and Territories (OCTs) are mainly islands, scattered around the globe. These territories contain unique flora and fauna and encompass diverse ecosystems, from coral reefs to rainforests. These highly diverse ecosystems provide multiple relevant ecosystem services from local to global scale. To date, the ecosystem services concept has so far received little attention in European ORs and OCTs. Therefore, our aims were (1) to analyse the current state of ecosystem services mapping and assessment in Europe’s overseas territories, (2) to identify knowledge gaps in the context of ecosystem service research and application and (3) to provide recommendations for future research and policy directions to fill these gaps. We conducted a systematic review of scientific literature for each of the ORs and OCTs, screening 1030 publications. The analysis resulted in 161 publications referring to ES mapping and assessment, of which most were conducted in the European Caribbean (31%) and Pacific (21%) territories. Results show that many ORs and OCTs are still blank spots in terms of ecosystem service mapping and assessment and that, despite many biodiversity studies referring to species’ abundance, little has been published on ecosystem services. Our systematic review highlights theknowledge lacking on dealing with invasive species, which pose major threats to native island biodiversity, ecosystem functions and ecosystem services. Further, it discusses knowledge gaps in (1) translation of information on island biodiversity and ecosystem functions into ES; (2) geographical coverage of mapping studies in most ORs and OCTs; (3) the lack of standardised approaches and integrated assessments to map, assess and value ecosystem services. Based on these results, future research and policy priorities could be adapted in order to focus on filling these gaps. To overcome current environmental policy challenges, it is crucial to address the ongoing decline in biodiversity, rising climatic and anthropogenic pressures on ecosystems and to maintain a sustainable ES flow to safeguard human well-being. Ultimately, ES mapping and assessment efforts will form the knowledge base for well-informed decision-making to protect Europe’s vulnerable overseas areas.

Future oceanic warming and acidification alter immune response and disease status in a commercial shellfish species, Mytilus edulis L

Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide are leading to physical changes in marine environments including parallel decreases in ocean pH and increases in seawater temperature. This study examined the impacts of a six month exposure to combined decreased pH and increased temperature on the immune response and disease status in the blue mussel, Mytilus edulis L. Results provide the first confirmation that exposure to future acidification and warming conditions via aquarium-based simulation may have parallel implications for bivalve health. Collectively, the data suggests that temperature more than pH may be the key driver affecting immune response in M. edulis. Data also suggests that both increases in temperature and/or lowered pH conditions may lead to changes in parasite abundance and diversity, pathological conditions, and bacterial incidence in M. edulis. These results have implications for future management of shellfish under a predicted climate change scenario and future sustainability of shellfisheries. Examination of the combined effects of two stressors over an extended exposure period provides key preliminary data and thus, this work represents a unique and vital contribution to current research efforts towards a collective understanding of expected near-future impacts of climate change on marine environments.

Population structure of the wild soybean (Glycine soja) in China: implications from microsatellite analyses

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Wild soybean (Glycine soja), a native species of East Asia, is the closest wild relative of the cultivated soybean (G. max) and supplies valuable genetic resources for cultivar breeding. Analyses of the genetic variation and population structure of wild soybean are fundamental for effective conservation studies and utilization of this valuable genetic resource.

METHODS

In this study, 40 wild soybean populations from China were genotyped with 20 microsatellites to investigate the natural population structure and genetic diversity. These results were integrated with previous microsatellite analyses for 231 representative individuals from East Asia to investigate the genetic relationships of wild soybeans from China.

KEY RESULTS

Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) revealed that 43·92 % of the molecular variance occurred within populations, although relatively low genetic diversity was detected for natural wild soybean populations. Most of the populations exhibited significant effects of a genetic bottleneck. Principal co-ordinate analysis, construction of a Neighbor-Joining tree and Bayesian clustering indicated two main genotypic clusters of wild soybean from China. The wild soybean populations, which are distributed in north-east and south China, separated by the Huang-Huai Valley, displayed similar genotypes, whereas those populations from the Huang-Huai Valley were different.

CONCLUSIONS

The previously unknown population structure of the natural populations of wild soybean distributed throughout China was determined. Two evolutionarily significant units were defined and further analysed by combining genetic diversity and structure analyses from Chinese populations with representative samples from Eastern Asia. The study suggests that during the glacial period there may have been an expansion route between south-east and north-east China, via the temperate forests in the East China Sea Land Bridge, which resulted in similar genotypes of wild soybean populations from these regions. Genetic diversity and bottleneck analysis supports that both extensive collection of germplasm resources and habitat management strategies should be undertaken for effective conservation studies of these important wild soybean resources.

Extinction and climate change

Arising from F. He & S. P. Hubbell 473, 368-371 (2011). Statistical relationships between habitat area and the number of species observed (species-area relationships, SARs) are sometimes used to assess extinction risks following habitat destruction or loss of climatic suitability. He and Hubbell argue that the numbers of species confined to-rather than observed in-different areas (endemics-area relationships, EARs) should be used instead of SARs, and that SAR-based extinction estimates in the literature are too high. We suggest that He and Hubbell's SAR estimates are biased, that the empirical data they use are not appropriate to calculate extinction risks, and that their statements about extinction risks from climate change do not take into account non-SAR-based estimates or recent observations. Species have already responded to climate change in a manner consistent with high future extinction risks.

The role of public information in ecology and conservation: an emphasis on inadvertent social information

Public information is an emerging major topic in ecology and evolution. We review the literature about the role of public information in ecology and conservation while mainly focusing on inadvertent social information (ISI), which constitutes a major form of public information. We first define the terms of biological information that we use. We then review the accruing evidence for ISI use in many fitness-affecting decisions in plants and animals. We generalize concepts of information to encompass interspecific interactions. We then develop how intra- and interspecific information flows actually shape ecological and evolutionary dynamics. We then discuss some of the application of adopting an information-driven approach to ecology and evolution in conservation biology. Our hope is to favor the transfer of knowledge from ecology and evolution to conservation biology. We claim that this is the only way to design efficient conservation actions and illustrate how ignoring concepts of information may lead us to design conservation actions that drive endangered populations toward rather than away from extinction.

Extinction risks of Amazonian plant species

Estimates of the number, and preferably the identity, of species that will be threatened by land-use change and habitat loss are an invaluable tool for setting conservation priorities. Here, we use collections data and ecoregion maps to generate spatially explicit distributions for more than 40,000 vascular plant species from the Amazon basin (representing more than 80% of the estimated Amazonian plant diversity). Using the distribution maps, we then estimate the rates of habitat loss and associated extinction probabilities due to land-use changes as modeled under 2 disturbance scenarios. We predict that by 2050, human land-use practices will have reduced the habitat available to Amazonian plant species by approximately 12-24%, resulting in 5-9% of species becoming "committed to extinction," significantly fewer than other recent estimates. Contrary to previous studies, we find that the primary determinant of habitat loss and extinction risk is not the size of a species' range, but rather its location. The resulting extinction risk estimates are a valuable conservation tool because they indicate not only the total percentage of Amazonian plant species threatened with extinction but also the degree to which individual species and habitats will be affected by current and future land-use changes.

Climate change, species-area curves and the extinction crisis

An article published in the journal Nature in January 2004-in which an international team of biologists predicted that climate change would, by 2050, doom 15-37% of the earth's species to extinction-attracted unprecedented, worldwide media attention. The predictions conflict with the conventional wisdom that habitat change and modification are the most important causes of current and future extinctions. The new extinction projections come from applying a well-known ecological pattern, the species-area relationship (SAR), to data on the current distributions and climatic requirements of 1103 species. Here, I examine the scientific basis to the claims made in the Nature article. I first highlight the potential and pitfalls of using the SAR to predict extinctions in general. I then consider the additional complications that arise when applying SAR methods specifically to climate change. I assess the extent to which these issues call into question predictions of extinctions from climate change relative to other human impacts, and highlight a danger that conservation resources will be directed away from attempts to slow and mitigate the continuing effects of habitat destruction and degradation, particularly in the tropics. I suggest that the most useful contributions of ecologists over the coming decades will be in partitioning likely extinctions among interacting causes and identifying the practical means to slow the rate of species loss.