Arctic freshwater forcing of the Younger Dryas cold reversal

Controlling factors for the global meridional overturning circulation: A lesson from the Paleozoic

The global meridional overturning circulation (GMOC) is important for redistributing heat and, thus, determining global climate, but what determines its strength over Earth's history remains unclear. On the basis of two sets of climate simulations for the Paleozoic characterized by a stable GMOC direction, our research reveals that GMOC strength primarily depends on continental configuration while climate variations have a minor impact. In the mid- to high latitudes, the volume of continents largely dictates the speed of westerly winds, which in turn controls upwelling and the strength of the GMOC. At low latitudes, open seaways also play an important role in the strength of the GMOC. An open seaway in one hemisphere allows stronger westward ocean currents, which support higher sea surface heights (SSH) in this hemisphere than that in the other. The meridional SSH gradient drives a stronger cross-equatorial flow in the upper ocean, resulting in a stronger GMOC. This latter finding enriches the current theory for GMOC.

Legacies of millennial-scale climate oscillations in contemporary biodiversity in eastern North America

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has caused significant climate changes over the past 90 000 years. Prior work has hypothesized that these millennial-scale climate variations effected past and contemporary biodiversity, but the effects are understudied. Moreover, few biogeographic models have accounted for uncertainties in palaeoclimatic simulations of millennial-scale variability. We examine whether refuges from millennial-scale climate oscillations have left detectable legacies in the patterns of contemporary species richness in eastern North America. We analyse 13 palaeoclimate estimates from climate simulations and proxy-based reconstructions as predictors for the contemporary richness of amphibians, passerine birds, mammals, reptiles and trees. Results suggest that past climate changes owing to AMOC variations have left weak but detectable imprints on the contemporary richness of mammals and trees. High temperature stability, precipitation increase, and an apparent climate fulcrum in the southeastern United States across millennial-scale climate oscillations aligns with high biodiversity in the region. These findings support the hypothesis that the southeastern United States may have acted as a biodiversity refuge. However, for some taxa, the strength and direction of palaeoclimate-richness relationships varies among different palaeoclimate estimates, pointing to the importance of palaeoclimatic ensembles and the need for caution when basing biogeographic interpretations on individual palaeoclimate simulations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Into the Holocene, anatomy of the Younger Dryas cold reversal and preboreal oscillation

During the most recent deglaciation, the upwards trend of warmer Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperatures was punctuated by a rapid and intense return to glacial conditions: the Younger Dryas (YD). The end of this event marks the beginning of the Holocene. Using the University of Toronto version of CCSM4, a model of the climate prior to the YD was created with correct boundary conditions. Various amounts of freshwater forcing were then applied to the Beaufort Gyre for forcing intervals ranging from 1 to 125 years. In several cases, this was sufficient to collapse the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and cause significant cooling over the NH. Crucially, after the forcing was ceased, the AMOC stayed in an off state for approximately a millennium before mounting a rapid recover to pre-YD levels. This recovery, which permanently reduced the extent of NH sea ice, occurred through the mechanism of a Polynya opening in the Irminger Sea during winter and led to a pronounced "overshoot" of the AMOC, during which NH temperatures were higher than before the YD.

1-km resolution rebound surfaces and paleotopography of glaciated North America since the Last Glacial Maximum

We present a series of 1-km spatial resolution rebound (isobase) surfaces based on publicly distributed predictions obtained from the glacio-isostatic adjustment models known as ICE-5G (VM2 L90), ICE-6G_C (VM5a) and ICE-7G_NA (VM7). Our objective is to provide readily accessible tools for a broad range of geological and paleoenvironmental studies, and to facilitate direct comparison between models' predictions and field-based observations. Rebound surfaces were interpolated at the scale of North American ice sheets (35.5°-89.5°N; 45°-165°W) and for each time increment of the models (1,000-500 yrs, between 26,000-21,000 yrs BP and present-day). The assessment of the interpolations indicates that the rebound surfaces have an overall vertical accuracy of ∼0.4 m compared to original ICE-xG outputs. These rebound surfaces were combined with the GEBCO 2021 present-day elevation grid to reconstruct the paleotopography for each time increment of the models and are all presented as raster files that can be easily integrated into geographical information systems. The resulting datasets therefore provide a unique support for geological, paleoenvironmental and archeological studies.

Glacial episodes of a freshwater Arctic Ocean covered by a thick ice shelf

Following early hypotheses about the possible existence of Arctic ice shelves in the past^1-3, the observation of specific erosional features as deep as 1,000 metres below the current sea level confirmed the presence of a thick layer of ice on the Lomonosov Ridge in the central Arctic Ocean and elsewhere^4-6. Recent modelling studies have addressed how an ice shelf may have built up in glacial periods, covering most of the Arctic Ocean^7,8. So far, however, there is no irrefutable marine-sediment characterization of such an extensive ice shelf in the Arctic, raising doubt about the impact of glacial conditions on the Arctic Ocean. Here we provide evidence for at least two episodes during which the Arctic Ocean and the adjacent Nordic seas were not only covered by an extensive ice shelf, but also filled entirely with fresh water, causing a widespread absence of thorium-230 in marine sediments. We propose that these Arctic freshwater intervals occurred 70,000-62,000 years before present and approximately 150,000-131,000 years before present, corresponding to portions of marine isotope stages 4 and 6. Alternative interpretations of the first occurrence of the calcareous nannofossil Emiliania huxleyi in Arctic sedimentary records would suggest younger ages for the older interval. Our approach explains the unexpected minima in Arctic thorium-230 records⁹ that have led to divergent interpretations of sedimentation rates^10,11 and hampered their use for dating purposes. About nine million cubic kilometres of fresh water is required to explain our isotopic interpretation, a calculation that we support with estimates of hydrological fluxes and altered boundary conditions. A freshwater mass of this size-stored in oceans, rather than land-suggests that a revision of sea-level reconstructions based on freshwater-sensitive stable oxygen isotopes may be required, and that large masses of fresh water could be delivered to the north Atlantic Ocean on very short timescales.

Coherent deglacial changes in western Atlantic Ocean circulation

Abrupt climate changes in the past have been attributed to variations in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength. However, the exact timing and magnitude of past AMOC shifts remain elusive, which continues to limit our understanding of the driving mechanisms of such climate variability. Here we show a consistent signal of the ²³¹Pa/²³⁰Th proxy that reveals a spatially coherent picture of western Atlantic circulation changes over the last deglaciation, during abrupt millennial-scale climate transitions. At the onset of deglaciation, we observe an early slowdown of circulation in the western Atlantic from around 19 to 16.5 thousand years ago (ka), consistent with the timing of accelerated Eurasian ice melting. The subsequent weakened AMOC state persists for over a millennium (~16.5–15 ka), during which time there is substantial ice rafting from the Laurentide ice sheet. This timing indicates a role for melting ice in driving a two-step AMOC slowdown, with a positive feedback sustaining continued iceberg calving and climate change during Heinrich Stadial 1.

The exact timing and magnitude of past changes in Atlantic Ocean circulation, and its relation to abrupt climate changes remains elusive. Here, the authors show a spatially coherent picture of western Atlantic circulation changes, which reveals a two-step AMOC slowdown at the beginning of the deglacial period.

Numerical simulations of a kilometre-thick Arctic ice shelf consistent with ice grounding observations

Recently obtained geophysical data show sets of parallel erosional features on the Lomonosov Ridge in the central Arctic Basin, indicative of ice grounding in water depths up to 1280 m. These features have been interpreted as being formed by an ice shelf-either restricted to the Amerasian Basin (the "minimum model") or extending across the entire Arctic Basin. Here, we use a numerical ice sheet-shelf model to explore how such an ice shelf could form. We rule out the "minimum model" and suggest that grounding on the Lomonosov Ridge requires complete Arctic ice shelf cover; this places a minimum estimate on its volume, which would have exceeded that of the modern Greenland Ice Sheet. Buttressing provided by an Arctic ice shelf would have increased volumes of the peripheral terrestrial ice sheets. An Arctic ice shelf could have formed even in the absence of a hypothesised East Siberian Ice Sheet.

Younger Dryas ice margin retreat triggered by ocean surface warming in central-eastern Baffin Bay

The transition from the last ice age to the present-day interglacial was interrupted by the Younger Dryas (YD) cold period. While many studies exist on this climate event, only few include high-resolution marine records that span the YD. In order to better understand the interactions between ocean, atmosphere and ice sheet stability during the YD, more high-resolution proxy records from the Arctic, located proximal to ice sheet outlet glaciers, are required. Here we present the first diatom-based high-resolution quantitative reconstruction of sea surface conditions from central-eastern Baffin Bay, covering the period 14.0-10.2 kyr BP. Our record reveals warmer sea surface conditions and strong interactions between the ocean and the West Greenland ice margin during the YD. These warmer conditions were caused by increased Atlantic-sourced water inflow combined with amplified seasonality. Our results emphasize the importance of the ocean for ice sheet stability under the current changing climate.

Episodic release of CO2 from the high-latitude North Atlantic Ocean during the last 135 kyr

Antarctic ice cores document glacial-interglacial and millennial-scale variability in atmospheric pCO₂ over the past 800 kyr. The ocean, as the largest active carbon reservoir on this timescale, is thought to have played a dominant role in these pCO₂ fluctuations, but it remains unclear how and where in the ocean CO₂ was stored during glaciations and released during (de)glacial millennial-scale climate events. The evolution of surface ocean pCO₂ in key locations can therefore provide important clues for understanding the ocean's role in Pleistocene carbon cycling. Here we present a 135-kyr record of shallow subsurface pCO₂ and nutrient levels from the Norwegian Sea, an area of intense CO₂ uptake from the atmosphere today. Our results suggest that the Norwegian Sea probably acted as a CO₂ source towards the end of Heinrich stadials HS1, HS4 and HS11, and may have contributed to the increase in atmospheric pCO₂ at these times.

Glacial-interglacial variations in atmospheric pCO₂ remain unexplained. Here, the authors show that the Norwegian Sea, an modern area of intense CO₂ uptake, acted as a CO₂ source during the terminations of Heinrich stadials 1, 4 and 11, sometimes characterized by rapid increases in atmospheric pCO₂.

Gradual demise of a thin southern Laurentide ice sheet recorded by Mississippi drainage

At the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), about 21,000 years before present, land-based ice sheets held enough water to reduce global mean sea level by 130 metres. Yet after decades of study, major uncertainties remain as to the distribution of that ice. Here we test four reconstructions of North American deglacial ice-sheet history by quantitatively connecting them to high-resolution oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) records from the Gulf of Mexico using a water mixing model. For each reconstruction, we route meltwater and seasonal runoff through the time-evolving Mississippi drainage basin, which co-evolves with ice geometry and changing topography as ice loads deform the solid Earth and produce spatially variable sea level in a process known as glacial isostatic adjustment. The δ(18)O records show that the Mississippi-drained southern Laurentide ice sheet contributed only 5.4 ± 2.1 metres to global sea level rise, of which 0.66 ± 0.07 metres were released during the meltwater pulse 1A event 14,650-14,310 years before present, far less water than previously thought. In contrast, the three reconstructions based on glacial isostatic adjustment overpredict the δ(18)O-based post-LGM meltwater volume by a factor of 1.6 to 3.6. The fourth reconstruction, which is based on ice physics, has a low enough Mississippi-routed meltwater discharge to be consistent with δ(18)O constraints, but also contains the largest LGM North American ice volume. This suggests that modelling based on ice physics may be the best way of matching isotopic records while also sequestering enough water in the North American ice sheets to match the observed LGM sea level fall.

Meltwater routing and the Younger Dryas

The Younger Dryas--the last major cold episode on Earth--is generally considered to have been triggered by a meltwater flood into the North Atlantic. The prevailing hypothesis, proposed by Broecker et al. [1989 Nature 341:318-321] more than two decades ago, suggests that an abrupt rerouting of Lake Agassiz overflow through the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley inhibited deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic and weakened the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). More recently, Tarasov and Peltier [2005 Nature 435:662-665] showed that meltwater could have discharged into the Arctic Ocean via the Mackenzie Valley ~4,000 km northwest of the St. Lawrence outlet. Here we use a sophisticated, high-resolution, ocean sea-ice model to study the delivery of meltwater from the two drainage outlets to the deep water formation regions in the North Atlantic. Unlike the hypothesis of Broecker et al., freshwater from the St. Lawrence Valley advects into the subtropical gyre ~3,000 km south of the North Atlantic deep water formation regions and weakens the AMOC by <15%. In contrast, narrow coastal boundary currents efficiently deliver meltwater from the Mackenzie Valley to the deep water formation regions of the subpolar North Atlantic and weaken the AMOC by >30%. We conclude that meltwater discharge from the Arctic, rather than the St. Lawrence Valley, was more likely to have triggered the Younger Dryas cooling.

Ice-sheet collapse and sea-level rise at the Bølling warming 14,600 years ago

Past sea-level records provide invaluable information about the response of ice sheets to climate forcing. Some such records suggest that the last deglaciation was punctuated by a dramatic period of sea-level rise, of about 20 metres, in less than 500 years. Controversy about the amplitude and timing of this meltwater pulse (MWP-1A) has, however, led to uncertainty about the source of the melt water and its temporal and causal relationships with the abrupt climate changes of the deglaciation. Here we show that MWP-1A started no earlier than 14,650 years ago and ended before 14,310 years ago, making it coeval with the Bølling warming. Our results, based on corals drilled offshore from Tahiti during Integrated Ocean Drilling Project Expedition 310, reveal that the increase in sea level at Tahiti was between 12 and 22 metres, with a most probable value between 14 and 18 metres, establishing a significant meltwater contribution from the Southern Hemisphere. This implies that the rate of eustatic sea-level rise exceeded 40 millimetres per year during MWP-1A.

Absence of geochemical evidence for an impact event at the Bølling-Allerød/Younger Dryas transition

High concentrations of iridium have been reported in terrestrial sediments dated at 12.9 ka and are interpreted to support an extraterrestrial impact event as the cause of the observed extinction in the Rancholabrean fauna, changes in the Paleoindian cultures, and the onset of the Younger Dryas cooling [Firestone RB, et al. (2007) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:16016-16021]. Here, we report platinum group element (PGE: Os, Ir, Ru, Rh, Pt, Pd), gold (Au) concentrations, and (187)Os/(188)Os ratios in time-equivalent terrestrial, lacustrine, and marine sections to seek robust evidence of an extraterrestrial contribution. First, our results do not reproduce the previously reported elevated Ir concentrations. Second, (187)Os/(188)Os isotopic ratios in the sediment layers investigated are similar to average crustal values, indicating the absence of a significant meteoritic Os contribution to these sediments. Third, no PGE anomalies distinct from crustal signatures are present in the marine record in either the Gulf of California (DSDP 480, Guaymas Basin) or the Cariaco Basin (ODP 1002C). Our data show no evidence of an extraterrestrial (ET)-PGE enrichment anomaly in any of the investigated depositional settings investigated across North America and in one section in Belgium. The lack of a clear ET-PGE signature in this sample suite is inconsistent with the impact of a large chondritic projectile at the Bølling-Allerød/Younger Dryas transition.

Snowball Earth prevention by dissolved organic carbon remineralization

The 'snowball Earth' hypothesis posits the occurrence of a sequence of glaciations in the Earth's history sufficiently deep that photosynthetic activity was essentially arrested. Because the time interval during which these events are believed to have occurred immediately preceded the Cambrian explosion of life, the issue as to whether such snowball states actually developed has important implications for our understanding of evolutionary biology. Here we couple an explicit model of the Neoproterozoic carbon cycle to a model of the physical climate system. We show that the drawdown of atmospheric oxygen into the ocean, as surface temperatures decline, operates so as to increase the rate of remineralization of a massive pool of dissolved organic carbon. This leads directly to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide, enhanced greenhouse warming of the surface of the Earth, and the prevention of a snowball state.

Efficient estimation and ensemble generation in climate modelling

In this paper, we review progress towards efficiently estimating parameters in climate models. Since the general problem is inherently intractable, a range of approximations and heuristic methods have been proposed. Simple Monte Carlo sampling methods, although easy to implement and very flexible, are rather inefficient, making implementation possible only in the very simplest models. More sophisticated methods based on random walks and gradient-descent methods can provide more efficient solutions, but it is often unclear how to extract probabilistic information from such methods and the computational costs are still generally too high for their application to state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs). The ensemble Kalman filter is an efficient Monte Carlo approximation which is optimal for linear problems, but we show here how its accuracy can degrade in nonlinear applications. Methods based on particle filtering may provide a solution to this problem but have yet to be studied in any detail in the realm of climate models. Statistical emulators show great promise for future research and their computational speed would eliminate much of the need for efficient sampling techniques. However, emulation of a full GCM has yet to be achieved and the construction of such represents a substantial computational task in itself.

Geochemical proxies of North American freshwater routing during the Younger Dryas cold event

The Younger Dryas cold interval represents a time when much of the Northern Hemisphere cooled from approximately 12.9 to 11.5 kiloyears B.P. The cause of this event, which has long been viewed as the canonical example of abrupt climate change, was initially attributed to the routing of freshwater to the St. Lawrence River with an attendant reduction in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. However, this mechanism has recently been questioned because current proxies and dating techniques have been unable to confirm that eastward routing with an increase in freshwater flux occurred during the Younger Dryas. Here we use new geochemical proxies (DeltaMg/Ca, U/Ca, and (87)Sr/(86)Sr) measured in planktonic foraminifera at the mouth of the St. Lawrence estuary as tracers of freshwater sources to further evaluate this question. Our proxies, combined with planktonic delta(18)O(seawater) and delta(13)C, confirm that routing of runoff from western Canada to the St. Lawrence River occurred at the start of the Younger Dryas, with an attendant increase in freshwater flux of 0.06 +/- 0.02 Sverdrup (1 Sverdrup = 10(6) m(3).s(-1)). This base discharge increase is sufficient to have reduced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and caused the Younger Dryas cold interval. In addition, our data indicate subsequent fluctuations in the freshwater flux to the St. Lawrence River of approximately 0.06-0.12 Sverdrup, thus explaining the variability in the overturning circulation and climate during the Younger Dryas.